Thoughts on WR choice in 1st round?

[Tacks 0]

Standard league, non PPR. I think I will have pick of WR based on my draft position. Don't get me wrong, Antonio Brown is a beast but so is Julio. Am I crazy if I take Julio over Brown? Non-PPR

[Gladiators 1,904]

Absolutely not, unless you think there's a reasonable chance you can get Julio in the second. I wouldn't be surprised to see any of the following end up the #1 WR at year end:

 

- Dez

- Julio

- Calvin

- Antonio

- Demaryius

 

If everyone drafted based on the consensus (essentially drafting based on ADP), drafts would be pretty boring. Just don't reach for guys...

[NEWPOSTERGUY! 267]

- Julio, without question. don't overthink missing out on his BEASTLY 2015.

 

HTH -

[Tacks 0]

Thanks guys

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Julio

[weepaws 2,460]

Brown . In a non PPR league I look at tds , last two seasons Brown has 21 tds Jones has 8 . Last season with Bell and Bryant , Brown still had 13 tds . I would take Brown .

[Flgatorguy87 160]

I love Julio but I still like Brown more.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Any of the top 8 wrs are interchangeable and could all finish as the top wr. 50% of them will bust or at least not finish among the top 10 wrs tho so enjoy and good luck. I agree Julio is primed for a huge season.

[yseguy22 8]

Anyone else feel Dez Bryant is a little too high (especially PPR)? He will be the obvious choice for defenses to double team / bracket this year with Demarco Murray gone and no proven RBs. Romo doesn't do the best job of getting him the ball if he's covered. They don't scheme to get him guaranteed looks - he just lines up on same side of the field. To me he is very touchdown dependent. I feel like I can get almost similar production out of some of the round 3 WRs.

[rowdystylz1 3]

I will be selecting Julio over AB at #7 out of 12 in .5ppr. Big fan of AB and def a safer choice but im not reigning back to back champ for being safe boys.

[NEWPOSTERGUY! 267]

I will be selecting Julio over AB at #7 out of 12 in .5ppr. Big fan of AB and def a safer choice but im not reigning back to back champ for being safe boys.

the stars are aligning for a mega stud season ... x rec in Shanny's offense, lovely schedule, dodgy defense ... I can see a 125/1700/16 ceiling. go get this dude at all costs.

 

much as I love AB, they draw the NFC West this year ... he will still get his for sure, but I think we saw his ceiling last season, and Julio's potential can surpass AB's 2014 -

[Einstein's Dog 20]

Put me in the AB over Julio camp.

 

Julio doesn't get the TDs. While I know TDs can be somewhat fickle from year to year, Julio isn't used as a primary red zone target. And his past TD totals reflect that.

 

AB, DT, Dez, Megatron, and old Jordy, are not only primary receivers they are used a lot in the red zone. Julio not so much.

[NEWPOSTERGUY! 267]

Put me in the AB over Julio camp.

 

Julio doesn't get the TDs. While I know TDs can be somewhat fickle from year to year, Julio isn't used as a primary red zone target. And his past TD totals reflect that.

 

AB, DT, Dez, Megatron, and old Jordy, are not only primary receivers they are used a lot in the red zone. Julio not so much.

I remember preseason '13, when I predicted the HUGE year for Charles, and told everyone to take him #1 over AP ...

 

"B-b-but JC has never scored double digit TDs in his career, NPG!!"

 

then he went and scored 20 total that season.

 

much like JC that year, Julio is in a new scheme that will feature him like he never has been before.

 

just wait -

[yseguy22 8]

Julio is primed for a good year but he is not nearly a polished receiver as AB or even AJ Green. He still drops too many passes and has never really been a red zone target. He is a threat to score from 40+yards out and yes, he should lead in YAC numbers. But Julio as #1 drafted WR - I don't see it.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Julio is primed for a good year but he is not nearly a polished receiver as AB or even AJ Green. He still drops too many passes and has never really been a red zone target. He is a threat to score from 40+yards out and yes, he should lead in YAC numbers. But Julio as #1 drafted WR - I don't see it.

You cant see that Julio could end up the #1 receiver this year? Maybe you need glasses. ANY of the top receivers being drafted could end up the top guy this year.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Any of the top 7 wrs could be no.1 easily. I like Calvin, Dez and Julio for highest ceiling, AB and Dez for highest floor. OBJ will be a huge bust, rarely does paying for miricle seasons pan out.

[fffoxhole 0]

I have brown 1 on my list with emphasis on ppr. I think dez Bryant is your man. Check out my site www.fantasyfootballfoxhole.com for my draft guide and rankings. All free!

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I have brown 1 on my list with emphasis on ppr. I think dez Bryant is your man. Check out my site www.fantasyfootballfoxhole.com for my draft guide and rankings. All free!

Why would i do that? Some of the best rankings on the web come from fftoday.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I have brown 1 on my list with emphasis on ppr. I think dez Bryant is your man. Check out my site www.fantasyfootballfoxhole.com for my draft guide and rankings. All free!

Just wondering if you asked Mike if its ok to advertise on this board. Also, your busts and sleepers are as generic as it gets. JAFFS - Just Another Fantasy Football Site.

[SpenceToons 70]

PIT's split between run and pass plays might see a slight nudge toward the pass after the loss of Pouncey ©, which would be a slight uptick in Brown's favor.

[Magnificent Bastard 190]

Julio's injury history and Roddy White slipping concerns me. I like Demarious T over him. He has E Sanders and a running game to keep the D from blanketing him, and I would think that a lot of the J Thomas red zone looks would go his way. He went over 100 yards the last 3 games of the year when PM was hurting.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Julio's injury history and Roddy White slipping concerns me. I like Demarious T over him. He has E Sanders and a running game to keep the D from blanketing him, and I would think that a lot of the J Thomas red zone looks would go his way. He went over 100 yards the last 3 games of the year when PM was hurting.

Yeah if you like Demarius Thomas better i can understand your arguments. But to say Julio basically cant become the top receiver is selling him very short.

[Magnificent Bastard 190]

Yeah if you like Demarius Thomas better i can understand your arguments. But to say Julio basically cant become the top receiver is selling him very short.

I said it concerns me, that is all. Julio is a great player.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I said it concerns me, that is all. Julio is a great player.

Should have clarified, my last sentence was addressing what yes said, not you.

[touchdowntwitaker 2]

Newposter is right. It is Julio and it is not even close. Everything checks off for him to have his big outlier season. Take Antonio Brown - he is safer but he just had his outlier season last year and you are paying for that this year - not that smart.

 

I've told everyone you can gamble with any of these backs who most have had their big year already, or take the guy who if he stays healthy, will be the #1 scorer minus Qb's in fantasy.

 

New poster - i see him getting around 170 targets.

 

Floor - 108 1500 and 10

Ceiling - 128 1800 and 18 (a 1.2 td a game rate).

 

Only mock draft i look at is one of the high stakes draft with top writers - 1 pt ppr and Julio went #1. People know what he is capable of - I also think Calvin finishes #2 at 1400 and 13... Jordan Matthews sneaks into top 5 as well - only year you can get him without a first round price tag

[tanatastic 2,061]

Newposter is right. It is Julio and it is not even close. Everything checks off for him to have his big outlier season. Take Antonio Brown - he is safer but he just had his outlier season last year and you are paying for that this year - not that smart.

 

I've told everyone you can gamble with any of these backs who most have had their big year already, or take the guy who if he stays healthy, will be the #1 scorer minus Qb's in fantasy.

 

New poster - i see him getting around 170 targets.

 

Floor - 108 1500 and 10

Ceiling - 128 1800 and 18 (a 1.2 td a game rate).

 

Only mock draft i look at is one of the high stakes draft with top writers - 1 pt ppr and Julio went #1. People know what he is capable of - I also think Calvin finishes #2 at 1400 and 13... Jordan Matthews sneaks into top 5 as well - only year you can get him without a first round price tag

So his floor is his best season ever on the worst offense hes been on? I love Julio and the ceiling is there but that floor is way too high. Floor is more like 90 1300 8 wich is a pretty high floor for a wr on a 6-10 team with a shaky Oline and no other weapns around him. People need to come down out of the clouds, this is shaping up to be one of Ryans worst seasons. Anyone who ranks Ryan above Brees or Peyton is clueless. Brees Floor is Ryans ceiling, go ahead and check the numbers.

 

Again I want to stress that im not saying Julio is a bad pick or that he cant lead the league or be the top wr. He can and hes a fine pick as your top wr. Im just trying to be realistic about his floor and the state of the Falcons offense in general.

[fffoxhole 0]

Sorry beernuts didn't know I couldn't post my link. I don't make money. It's just a blog. I'd love to hear your opinions. Seems as if they must be really original. JAFFP- just another fantasy football poster

[touchdowntwitaker 2]

NO one is ranking Ryan above those guys. Brees is way under rated. People forget Brees had hardest pass schedule last year and now has one of his easiest. He will be in mid to late 30's for tds which is great value for hi.

 

I know not to rank schedules pre season - but please, please look at Atlanta's schedule. It is the easiet schedule I have seen in years for a team - any team. I don't think there are any cb's on Atlantas schedule that can come near Julio.

 

only thing a little shaky is I do not like Carolina twice in the fantasy playoffs. Ryan struggles against Carolina. Ryan's worst year barring injury was last year and it was still not terrible.

 

The only players I am considering schedules in choice are Pitt, Cinci and Atlanta. Pitt pass sched is brutal - I like all the players but I think tehy will be a little less on stats than last year. Cinci rush schedule is brutal - so I like Hill but he does not have much of a ceiling... 1200 and 9 is prob his year if healthy. Atlanta schedule is just a joke not to think Ryan and julio crush it at current values.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Sorry beernuts didn't know I couldn't post my link. I don't make money. It's just a blog. I'd love to hear your opinions. Seems as if they must be really original. JAFFP- just another fantasy football poster

That is all i am. Just another guy with an opinion that i form from what other people write and what i see. I dont claim to be anything else. Take what i said and use it to improve your site.

[Mr Neil 63]

So his floor is his best season ever on the worst offense hes been on? I love Julio and the ceiling is there but that floor is way too high. Floor is more like 90 1300 8 wich is a pretty high floor for a wr on a 6-10 team with a shaky Oline and no other weapns around him. People need to come down out of the clouds, this is shaping up to be one of Ryans worst seasons. Anyone who ranks Ryan above Brees or Peyton is clueless. Brees Floor is Ryans ceiling, go ahead and check the numbers.

 

Again I want to stress that im not saying Julio is a bad pick or that he cant lead the league or be the top wr. He can and hes a fine pick as your top wr. Im just trying to be realistic about his floor and the state of the Falcons offense in general.

^this^ also I love Julio and he will be a target monster but with more targets come more tackles which means more hits for a WR that has never played an entire season and has a twice surgically repaired foot. I would definitely take A Brown over him. Browns floor is is so much higher than Julios due to injury risk that it's absurd

[yseguy22 8]

So his floor is his best season ever on the worst offense hes been on? I love Julio and the ceiling is there but that floor is way too high. Floor is more like 90 1300 8 wich is a pretty high floor for a wr on a 6-10 team with a shaky Oline and no other weapns around him. People need to come down out of the clouds, this is shaping up to be one of Ryans worst seasons. Anyone who ranks Ryan above Brees or Peyton is clueless. Brees Floor is Ryans ceiling, go ahead and check the numbers.

 

I agree. This is like the old Al Davis syndrome. People see the speed and power and become blinded to any weaknesses. Over 49 career games Julio has 26 TDs. That's .53 TDs per game. Suddenly he is going to find the end zone at a 1.2 TD rate?

[fffoxhole 0]

That is all i am. Just another guy with an opinion that i form from what other people write and what i see. I dont claim to be anything else. Take what i said and use it to improve your site.

And I like feedback. I am happy to be one of those writers people consider as another opinion. I am glad you took a look.

Btw. I like Julio a bunch, but his injury history scares me. I would feel safer with another WR at the top if I had my pick of the lot.

[Gladiators 1,904]

 

I agree. This is like the old Al Davis syndrome. People see the speed and power and become blinded to any weaknesses. Over 49 career games Julio has 26 TDs. That's .53 TDs per game. Suddenly he is going to find the end zone at a 1.2 TD rate?

 

Not sure about you, but I draft based on what guys are going to do THIS year. See Andrew Luck last year...Went from 46 tds over 32 games to 40 tds over 16 games. How was that possible?

[tanatastic 2,061]

I know not to rank schedules pre season - but please, please look at Atlanta's schedule. It is the easiet schedule I have seen in years for a team - any team. I don't think there are any cb's on Atlantas schedule that can come near Julio.

 

Atlanta schedule is just a joke not to think Ryan and julio crush it at current values.

Your right about this most of all. Last years cake defenses become next years tough defenses all the time. Players change places, coordinators change jobs. Thats why smart players dont draft defenses high, we know that its so volatile. Falcons have had back to back 6-10 seasons or something like that. Now their offense is arguably worse and Roddys even more ancient. Its those other teams on the schedule that are licking their chops knowing they just need to try and shut down Julio. Easier said than done, hes a beast. But I think people still see ATL as the 10-6 high flying team they were a few years ago with Tony G and a prime Roddy.

[touchdowntwitaker 2]

If this was the same Atlanta coaching staff I would say you two are right, but we have a whole new staff with a coaching method we have seen before in Kyle Shannahan with Andre Johnson, Josh Gordon, Pierre Garcon big year, etc. We know Julio is getting close to 170 targets.

 

Ryan - better than Hoyer, Cambell, Weeden

 

Julio - better than Gordon..

 

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm..

 

Hey - do what you want - these are all just opinions.. I'm more looking for the guys who agree. You guys are all good fantasy players so you know the WR order at end of year will dramtically be different from the pre season cheat sheet. It always does.

 

Last year it was easy to see Emmanuel Sanders blowing up in Peyton two spot as it has been before - but some people didn't like that.. some people didn't think Josh Gordon was gonna blow up and that is easy to see. Some people don't like Jordan Matthews this year (I'm an Eagles fan but I usually hate taking Eagles - only one I ever had was TO first year on team) and barring injury its easy to see Matthews is going to explode.

 

The system and schedule is in place for Julio. He just needs to stay healthy.

[weepaws 2,460]

I agree. This is like the old Al Davis syndrome. People see the speed and power and become blinded to any weaknesses. Over 49 career games Julio has 26 TDs. That's .53 TDs per game. Suddenly he is going to find the end zone at a 1.2 TD rate?

 

I agree. This is like the old Al Davis syndrome. People see the speed and power and become blinded to any weaknesses. Over 49 career games Julio has 26 TDs. That's .53 TDs per game. Suddenly he is going to find the end zone at a 1.2 TD rate?

 

one never knows lol

[Beyond Chaos 75]

So his floor is his best season ever on the worst offense hes been on? I love Julio and the ceiling is there but that floor is way too high. Floor is more like 90 1300 8 wich is a pretty high floor for a wr on a 6-10 team with a shaky Oline and no other weapns around him. People need to come down out of the clouds, this is shaping up to be one of Ryans worst seasons. Anyone who ranks Ryan above Brees or Peyton is clueless. Brees Floor is Ryans ceiling, go ahead and check the numbers.

 

Again I want to stress that im not saying Julio is a bad pick or that he cant lead the league or be the top wr. He can and hes a fine pick as your top wr. Im just trying to be realistic about his floor and the state of the Falcons offense in general.

Considering he has played 4 years and has gotten significantly injured in 1 of them, it would not be too much of a stretch to say he has a 25% chance of being injured but that may not be accurate due to a small sample size. But really that's not my point (if I even have one), to say his floor is anything but 0 implies there is no chance he gets injured and to say he finishes with a minimum of 1000 yds may not factor in the possibility of his QB going down, a few key linemen going down (giving Ryan no time to throw), etc.

To sum up, I would guess Jones has about a 60 to 70% chance of producing at least 1200 yds and 7 TDs and about a 15 to 25% chance of producing 1500 yds and 10 TDs. My guess on Brown would be about 70 to 80% chance of producing 1200yds and 7 TDs with maybe a 20 to 30% chance to produce 1500 yds and 10 TDs. So Brown slightly over Jones, but either has a chance to outperform the other.

[Mustard Lover 3]

I will be selecting Julio over AB at #7 out of 12 in .5ppr. Big fan of AB and def a safer choice but im not reigning back to back champ for being safe boys.

Have you considered the possibility that Julio will be there for you in the 2nd after you take a RB or top QB in the 1st? How does the 1st round usually play out?

[Beyond Chaos 75]

A question for those who have seen Julio play alot: I've seen Brown play just about every game for the last few years and one thing he does well along with Roethlisberger is when a play breaks down (Ben breaks a tackle or has to scramble to avoid a sack) these two guys will often improvise a play for big yardage or a TD. It's not a hot route because it's not scripted. It's Ben pointing in a direction or Brown breaking into a wide open area. The question is: Do you see Julio doing that with Ryan often with the emphasis on often? Or does it usually end in Ryan eating the ball and taking the sack? I'm just curious as I don't get to see Julio play too often and it's clear by the numbers he is a great receiver.

[loonecho 19]

In my 12 team draft non-ppr last week, I got Antonio Brown at pick 9 and snagged Julio in the second. Dez and Demarious were selected after my nine pick and before my 16 pick. OBJ went right after I selected Julio. Was very happy as I had AB and JJ ranked 1 and 2 on my WR list.