Instant Fantasy Analysis - RB Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys

[Cruzer 1,992]

 

 

you go to war with the army you have, not the army you want.

 

as for the smith pick...but bear in mind, he was like plan D or plan E.

Agreed.... But in this, herein lies the problem - glaring problem I might add.

 

This is what we have bcoz the Jones boys and powers that be don't have a freaking clue what their doing on the defensive side of the ball... You have the 4th and 34th overall picks in the entire draft - and bcoz of how it shakes out, you go into full panic mode when it's your turn bcoz your guys aren't there - WTF is going on??? Did we really not have multiple contingency plans in place "if" this or "if" that happened? That's what you do - that's the craft of a draft. It's not like it's the last round and you're deciding over spare 1 or spare 2 - it's the 34th pick in the damn draft! If you can't find an impact, immediate player at 34 - you need to find another profession.

 

Another thing that pisses me off to high hell is that the powers that be here concluded that after the pathetic exhibition of defense we put on last year, knowing Hardy wasn't coming back, knowing Bong Hit Gregory was going to be out, knowing we were dead ass last in takeaways and knowing our best defensive player (Lee) is an injury prone/concussion getting house of cards - we concluded that we're so gifted that we can afford to pick a player so injured that it's 50/50 he ever plays a down of football again, and even if/when he does the earliest will be in 2017. That's the kind of crap that pisses me off. I've seen teams pay more attention to their Special Teams units than we do our defense - pathetic.

[R8RMick 242]

Oh the heralded Paper Champions chant - nobody has mastered that logo more than us since 1995... I will give you, on paper, we look to be better. The additions of Mayowa and Thorton should help, one would think. Then again, Mayowa was let go w/out much resistance - how many teams just "let go" good DEs? ...... But again, it's duct tape and patch work - same song, different verse around here... And as far as our LB problem - and make no mistake, it's a huge problem, we have no solutions on the horizon. I can't believe the locals aren't as mad as me at the Jones boys for trusting McClain to pull his head out his ass. Good freaking Lord, did they not see this coming???? And S. Lee? He was about 3 concussions short in 2014 of what he is now in 2016 - I have ZERO faith he will see even half the season this year.

 

But hey, it isn't all bad. We did draft a guy with our 2nd Round pick - who MIGH PLAY IN 2018....

Don't misread the Mayowa transaction, the Raiders are VERY deep on the defensive line. And that was even before the draft, when they drafted Jihad Ward in the 2nd and stole Shilique Calhoun in the 3rd. You're going to be more than satisfied with Benson Mayowa.

[Kent 228]

I may completely miss the boat on Zeke but I have a tough time with tossing what's looking like a 1st or 2nd round pick on a rookie I've never seen play a snap in the NFL.

I said the same thing during the draft on Edgerrine James rookie year. Some guy took him in the first round and we all laughed. That guy won the title that year. We all cried.

[Cruzer 1,992]

Don't misread the Mayowa transaction, the Raiders are VERY deep on the defensive line. And that was even before the draft, when they drafted Jihad Ward in the 2nd and stole Shilique Calhoun in the 3rd. You're going to be more than satisfied with Benson Mayowa.

This is actually very comforting to hear. I hope you are right... What's the book on his head - he a good, dedicated, hard working kid? Or is he a Gregory knucklehead? We have enough of those already.

[sirensong 111]

Agreed.... But in this, herein lies the problem - glaring problem I might add.

 

This is what we have bcoz the Jones boys and powers that be don't have a freaking clue what their doing on the defensive side of the ball... You have the 4th and 34th overall picks in the entire draft - and bcoz of how it shakes out, you go into full panic mode when it's your turn bcoz your guys aren't there - WTF is going on??? Did we really not have multiple contingency plans in place "if" this or "if" that happened? That's what you do - that's the craft of a draft. It's not like it's the last round and you're deciding over spare 1 or spare 2 - it's the 34th pick in the damn draft! If you can't find an impact, immediate player at 34 - you need to find another profession.

 

Another thing that pisses me off to high hell is that the powers that be here concluded that after the pathetic exhibition of defense we put on last year, knowing Hardy wasn't coming back, knowing Bong Hit Gregory was going to be out, knowing we were dead ass last in takeaways and knowing our best defensive player (Lee) is an injury prone/concussion getting house of cards - we concluded that we're so gifted that we can afford to pick a player so injured that it's 50/50 he ever plays a down of football again, and even if/when he does the earliest will be in 2017. That's the kind of crap that pisses me off. I've seen teams pay more attention to their Special Teams units than we do our defense - pathetic.

 

 

of course there are contingency plans. the lynch trade fell through, then ogbah (plan B )went, then dodd (plan C) went. there comes a point where risk/reward enters the cost/benefit analysis. do you spend pick 34 on...

 

1. a 3rd tier DLman with serious character concerns?

 

2. a 2-down thumper LB who can't cover?

 

3. a really talented LB with a still-damaged, degenerative knee, who can play this season?

 

4. a supremely talented LB with a fully recuperated, non-degenerative knee, who won't play this season but will probably not be physically limited over the rest of his career?

 

 

were it me, i would have picked jack even if he would have to play out of position (natural WLB). IMO, DAL would have unquestionably won the draft with 2 top-5 guys. but i can understand how they looked at jack and saw bruce carter (another consensus physical freak 1st rounder who fell to the second due to a knee). smith was a better prospect, and if it's time to gamble, it makes sense to go big.

 

 

so seriously--what 'immediate impact' player do you take at 34, who isn't either an injury guy or a character concern? in order to operationalize 'immediate impact', name the 2nd round picks for the 3 other NFCE teams last season. because if you can't remember their names off the top of your head, then they didn't have a whole lot of impact. only name i can remember is collins, who was a 1st round grade. how much impact did he have on the NYG defense?

[-Vyse- 65]

Hate the cowboys but behind that offensive line the kid has the potential to do some damage

[Cruzer 1,992]

 

 

of course there are contingency plans. the lynch trade fell through, then ogbah (plan B )went, then dodd (plan C) went. there comes a point where risk/reward enters the cost/benefit analysis. do you spend pick 34 on...

 

1. a 3rd tier DLman with serious character concerns?

 

2. a 2-down thumper LB who can't cover?

 

3. a really talented LB with a still-damaged, degenerative knee, who can play this season?

 

4. a supremely talented LB with a fully recuperated, non-degenerative knee, who won't play this season but will probably not be physically limited over the rest of his career?

 

 

were it me, i would have picked jack even if he would have to play out of position (natural WLB). IMO, DAL would have unquestionably won the draft with 2 top-5 guys. but i can understand how they looked at jack and saw bruce carter (another consensus physical freak 1st rounder who fell to the second due to a knee). smith was a better prospect, and if it's time to gamble, it makes sense to go big.

 

 

so seriously--what 'immediate impact' player do you take at 34, who isn't either an injury guy or a character concern? in order to operationalize 'immediate impact', name the 2nd round picks for the 3 other NFCE teams last season. because if you can't remember their names off the top of your head, then they didn't have a whole lot of impact. only name i can remember is collins, who was a 1st round grade. how much impact did he have on the NYG defense?

When your defensive unit finishes dead ass last in takeaways, when you defensive unit's best player is a concussed machine house of cards, when you don't have a single pass rusher that makes offensive coordinators flinch - you don't have the luxury of "cost/benefit" analysis to be wasting the 34th overall pick, in the entire draft, on a guy who's 50/50 will never play a down of football again.

 

But for funzies let's say Smith miraculously heels and suits up in 2017 (which by the way looks alarming nil bcoz his nerve has not grown at all as expected) - let's say he plays. Ok, now what? Now you've an undersized LB who's not played a down of football in the NFL, hell not even played a down of football anywhere in 2 years - on the field finally. He's a rookie, you sending out this green kid and expecting him to just take charge, be all world? There's a good chance his body isn't even where it needs to be in order to take the pounding he's going to see at this level... Best case scenario - he sees his best football in 2018 - 2 years from now... REALLY??? We're so deep and good we can afford to take shots on guys who might be good in 2018? Hell by then Romo will be damn near 40 - then what, SB bound with our steal draft pick of 2016?

 

This is exactly the kind of Kumbaya, rose colored, glass half full thinking that has this unit (and team) in the mess that it's in. When you couple this with the Jones boys' philosophy that you can win with a patch work, bits and pieces half ass defense - it spells mediocrity. Which by they way, in case anyone hasn't noticed - is exactly what we've had the past 20 years.....

 

So who would I have taken at 34? The answer is anyone - anyone who was healthy and able to actually play. Reason? Bcoz we aren't good enough anywhere that we can't use help. Take the best available LB - bcoz 1, ours aren't dependable and 2) even when they are on the field they aren't that impressive (outside of lee)... Take the best available SS. And please don't even tell me that 34 is too high for that pick - it has to be a better pick than a guy watching from his couch, in a cast, eating popcorn... How about the best available CB? Both Claiborne and Carr are gone after this year. How nice would it be to have a CB already on the team who could step in and spot start this year, play some nickel this year and possibly take over full time in 2017? ........ We need bodies bcoz bodies means darts - you throw nuff of them at the wall eventually some stick. Anybody able to suit up, practice and play now is 1,000,000 better than a maybe in 2017, 2018.

[kwolf68 13]

Has there ever been a more hyped rookie? I can see why, the ingredients are all there, it seems to be a CAN'T MISS. Zeke is good and he can be trusted in the passing game to protect Romo. He'll be running behind the finest offensive line in the game. I LOVE everything about this situation, but I get scared to jump on the hype train at times.

[sirensong 111]

...a guy who's 50/50 will never play a down of football again...

 

...(which by the way looks alarming nil bcoz his nerve has not grown at all as expected)...

 

 

 

 

where are you getting this information? as i understand it, recovery is the expected prognosis for that injury, but there is an outside chance that the stretched nerve might never fire again. so that's more like 80/20 or 90/10 that he will be fine.

 

and where are you getting that the nerve has not regrown? just the werder rumor? because that could never be traced to a cowboys source, much less a source in the medical loop. at normal rates, the nerve would have regrown 1-2" since the draft, which IIUC would show no progress in innervating the muscle. so we wouldn't really see any progress until the nerve has regrown ~4". long story short, almost no one can know what his progress is right now.

 

i know you're a pessimist--which is fine--but it's important to be objective. where are you getting your information?

[Cruzer 1,992]

 

 

where are you getting this information? as i understand it, recovery is the expected prognosis for that injury, but there is an outside chance that the stretched nerve might never fire again. so that's more like 80/20 or 90/10 that he will be fine.

 

and where are you getting that the nerve has not regrown? just the werder rumor? because that could never be traced to a cowboys source, much less a source in the medical loop. at normal rates, the nerve would have regrown 1-2" since the draft, which IIUC would show no progress in innervating the muscle. so we wouldn't really see any progress until the nerve has regrown ~4". long story short, almost no one can know what his progress is right now.

 

i know you're a pessimist--which is fine--but it's important to be objective. where are you getting your information?

I've heard from Fish on more than 1 occasion that it is not growing back as expected as well as there being reason for concern........ The fact that we are even having a discussion about 2nd round pick and 50/50, 8/20, 90/10 is a joke in itself.

[sirensong 111]

I've heard from Fish on more than 1 occasion that it is not growing back as expected as well as there being reason for concern.

 

ok, that's serious business then--fish usually has good info. i haven't been catching the fan lately.

[sirensong 111]

found some interesting stat work that flatly contradicts the 'even DMC was an effective runner behind this line' narrative.

 

60% of his yardage (608yds) came in the second half.

 

YPG average was 57.3 in wins, and 71.7 in losses.

 

YPA was 3.8 when leading, and 5.0 when trailing.

 

so while he performed well on paper, these numbers suggest that his statistical success came in trash time, when defenses quit worrying about the run.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

found some interesting stat work that flatly contradicts the 'even DMC was an effective runner behind this line' narrative.

 

60% of his yardage (608yds) came in the second half.

 

YPG average was 57.3 in wins, and 71.7 in losses.

 

YPA was 3.8 when leading, and 5.0 when trailing.

 

so while he performed well on paper, these numbers suggest that his statistical success came in trash time, when defenses quit worrying about the run.

Probably kind of like how Chris Johnson wasn't as good as people remember.

[Matt Mueller 146]

^ Great info.

[R8RMick 242]

This is actually very comforting to hear. I hope you are right... What's the book on his head - he a good, dedicated, hard working kid? Or is he a Gregory knucklehead? We have enough of those already.

Sorry been on vacation in California. Believe he's an undrafted kid out of Idaho, small school but one of Reggie McKenzie's guys. Everyone needs to realize that RM is light years from an aging Al Davis, and is really building a young powerhouse in Oakland.

 

As for Mayowa, he's been a solid citizen, good kid. But he's a 6-3 240 edge guy in our 5-2 defense, stuck behind Mack, Bruce Irvin, Mario Edwards Jr, Shilique Calhoun, and probably Aldon Smith when he gets back. Raiders are frighteningly deep at the Edge position in their 5-2 defense, and pretty much let Mayowa walk so the kid would have a shot elsewhere. They did the same thing with center Tony Bergstrom, who played well for them in relief of Rodney Hudson last year and just signed a nice FA deal with Houston.

 

It's the small shite, but it feels good to finally have a team talented enough to let these good young players go elsewhere so they have a shot at playing.

[R8RMick 242]

 

 

of course there are contingency plans. the lynch trade fell through, then ogbah (plan B )went, then dodd (plan C) went. there comes a point where risk/reward enters the cost/benefit analysis. do you spend pick 34 on...

 

1. a 3rd tier DLman with serious character concerns?

 

2. a 2-down thumper LB who can't cover?

 

3. a really talented LB with a still-damaged, degenerative knee, who can play this season?

 

4. a supremely talented LB with a fully recuperated, non-degenerative knee, who won't play this season but will probably not be physically limited over the rest of his career?

 

 

were it me, i would have picked jack even if he would have to play out of position (natural WLB). IMO, DAL would have unquestionably won the draft with 2 top-5 guys. but i can understand how they looked at jack and saw bruce carter (another consensus physical freak 1st rounder who fell to the second due to a knee). smith was a better prospect, and if it's time to gamble, it makes sense to go big.

 

 

so seriously--what 'immediate impact' player do you take at 34, who isn't either an injury guy or a character concern? in order to operationalize 'immediate impact', name the 2nd round picks for the 3 other NFCE teams last season. because if you can't remember their names off the top of your head, then they didn't have a whole lot of impact. only name i can remember is collins, who was a 1st round grade. how much impact did he have on the NYG defense?

Preston Smith was the Skin's 2nd rounder, and played very well last year. Especially down the stretch, which is the classic sign of a rookie picking things up. I know this because I wanted Oakland to draft him, though I was happy with Mario Edwards Jr.

[Cruzer 1,992]

The Cowboys draft board was leaked..... Jaylon Smith, knowing he was on 1 leg and maybe never playing again, was #5 on our board.

 

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2016/7/18/12208248/all-seven-rounds-of-dallas-cowboys-2016-draft-board-possibly-revealed

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Why does the Cowboys board always get leaked?

[-Vyse- 65]

When will Elliot be the main starter? I mean they really have a bunch of good serviceable backs in the team. McFadden was pretty good last year but he has he experience unlike Elliot does. So when does Elliot get to be their go to guy?

[Cruzer 1,992]

Why does the Cowboys board always get leaked?

Comedy.

[giraldi02 470]

Why does the Cowboys board always get leaked?

Maybe Jerruh has an enlarged prostate and that's causing the leakage? Tends to happen in older guys.

[R8RMick 242]

The Cowboys draft board was leaked..... Jaylon Smith, knowing he was on 1 leg and maybe never playing again, was #5 on our board.

 

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2016/7/18/12208248/all-seven-rounds-of-dallas-cowboys-2016-draft-board-possibly-revealed

 

Draft boards are very well protected, and for good reason. This could be misinformation, something I wouldn't put past JJo. Whoever thought William Jackson III would last until round three was on crack.

[nobody 2,044]

I'm just surprised they allegedly had Wentz over Goff.

 

Imagine how bad Wentz must be sucking right now when the coaches are saying he definitely won't start and will probably be inactive.

[nobody 2,044]

Looking over the board it doesn't make sense. Why would they draft Maliek Collins 3-67 if Kendall Fuller was still there who you had ranked much higher?

 

Plus why wouldn't they draft Ronald Blair at DE instead of Charles Tapper at 4-101, when Blair was ranked higher.

[Cruzer 1,992]

Looking over the board it doesn't make sense. Why would they draft Maliek Collins 3-67 if Kendall Fuller was still there who you had ranked much higher?

 

Plus why wouldn't they draft Ronald Blair at DE instead of Charles Tapper at 4-101, when Blair was ranked higher.

You must not have followed many of Dallas' drafts over the recent years - draft day is a cluster fock of clowns around here.

[Matt Mueller 146]

I'm just surprised they allegedly had Wentz over Goff.

 

Imagine how bad Wentz must be sucking right now when the coaches are saying he definitely won't start and will probably be inactive.

 

I think Wentz is doing pretty good but they know it might be best for his long term development not to throw him to the wolves when they have 2 experienced NFL players they paid a ton of $ for this year.

 

2017 will be his year if he has the goods I imagine.

[R8RMick 242]

I'm just surprised they allegedly had Wentz over Goff.

 

Imagine how bad Wentz must be sucking right now when the coaches are saying he definitely won't start and will probably be inactive.

I still think longterm the Raiders may have ended up with the best QB from the 2016 draft. For damn sure they have a backup plan for when McLovin walks in FA next year.

[R8RMick 242]

You must not have followed many of Dallas' drafts over the recent years - draft day is a cluster fock of clowns around here.

And yet they've managed to build the best offensive line the league has seen in years.

[Cruzer 1,992]

And yet they've managed to build the best offensive line the league has seen in years.

If anyone remembers it must be you.. Was I not screaming for years around here to 'build from the inside out'? I was famous for saying stop with the bells and whistles - and they did.. But the party didn't last long. Jerry got so caught up reading the headlines that he went back to trying to outsmart the room... Thus, we've remained stagnant.

[IGotWorms 3,315]

Am I the only one that doesn't get the zeke hype? I mean sure, great running back and great o line. Take him first overall dammit! But what about McFadden and alf Morris? These are veteran (but not washed up) guys who've had some success in this league. Is zeke really going to end up a bell cow with those two guys on the bench? Is there something I'm not getting here?

[sirensong 111]

I've heard from Fish on more than 1 occasion that it is not growing back as expected as well as there being reason for concern........ The fact that we are even having a discussion about 2nd round pick and 50/50, 8/20, 90/10 is a joke in itself.

 

per jerry today, recuperation is not complete, but smith is not behind his recovery schedule, and team doctors are not "dismayed".

[sirensong 111]

Looking over the board it doesn't make sense. Why would they draft Maliek Collins 3-67 if Kendall Fuller was still there who you had ranked much higher?

 

Plus why wouldn't they draft Ronald Blair at DE instead of Charles Tapper at 4-101, when Blair was ranked higher.

 

this is where arguments can get endless. collins is going to be a 500 snap player this season, and has the potential to make a major impact in the cowboys' biggest need area (DL). fuller would be--at best--the 4th corner with 200 snaps. IIRC, fuller also had injury concerns, so you have a mirror image of the smith pick (immediate contribution or long-term success).

 

as for blair, BTB suggests that the team might have projected him as a tackle rather than a rush end. if that's the case, then he's bumping into the collins pick, the thornton FA deal, last season's dark horse irving, and of course crawford. so picking the rush end (tapper) seems like a better investment to help a weaker position group.

 

people talk about no-exceptions BPA, but no one actually does it.

[-Vyse- 65]

Am I the only one that doesn't get the zeke hype? I mean sure, great running back and great o line. Take him first overall dammit! But what about McFadden and alf Morris? These are veteran (but not washed up) guys who've had some success in this league. Is zeke really going to end up a bell cow with those two guys on the bench? Is there something I'm not getting here?

That's what I'm trying to figure out. McFadden did pretty well for Dallas last year and now they've added Morris to the mix who is a grinder. Unless Zeke is some magical running back who will be able to outperform both of those vets I don't see Zeke having much of an impact this year. Now the future? Yea definitely. Zeke IS the future of Dallas. But this year I think both Morris and McFadden outperform him

[IGotWorms 3,315]

That's what I'm trying to figure out. McFadden did pretty well for Dallas last year and now they've added Morris to the mix who is a grinder. Unless Zeke is some magical running back who will be able to outperform both of those vets I don't see Zeke having much of an impact this year. Now the future? Yea definitely. Zeke IS the future of Dallas. But this year I think both Morris and McFadden outperform him

I wouldn't go that far but I do think Morris and/or McFadden eat into his production quite a bit

[-Vyse- 65]

I wouldn't go that far but I do think Morris and/or McFadden eat into his production quite a bit

I think they eat into it quite a bit. I do think Zeke will be the future of Dallas but this year I just don't think he will get enough touches to make him fantasy relevant

[Cruzer 1,992]

 

per jerry today, recuperation is not complete, but smith is not behind his recovery schedule, and team doctors are not "dismayed".

What did you expect him to say??? Jerry all but said there is nothing good to report, had there been - he wouldn't have been able to contain himself covering his ass and taking the opportunity to look like a genius.

[sirensong 111]

What did you expect him to say??? Jerry all but said there is nothing good to report, had there been - he wouldn't have been able to contain himself covering his ass and taking the opportunity to look like a genius.

 

 

the clear public statement that smith is not behind schedule is a good data point. that's about all we can have at this point in the offseason. it isn't conclusive by any means (i'd trust it more coming from JG), but the alternative is to say that jerry is flat-out lying.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I think they eat into it quite a bit. I do think Zeke will be the future of Dallas but this year I just don't think he will get enough touches to make him fantasy relevant

There's just no way he doesn't get his share of touches. He was drafted at 4 overall while Jerry was probably the one who wanted him drafted there. If Jerry is the one who wanted Zeke at 4, Zeke is going to get his touches.

[sirensong 111]

There's just no way he doesn't get his share of touches. He was drafted at 4 overall while Jerry was probably the one who wanted him drafted there. If Jerry is the one who wanted Zeke at 4, Zeke is going to get his touches.

 

 

leaked cowboys board shows him as their top prospect, with ramsay 2nd. jerry does a lot of things, but he doesn't build the board--we know this from previous leaked boards.

[Cruzer 1,992]

 

 

the clear public statement that smith is not behind schedule is a good data point. that's about all we can have at this point in the offseason. it isn't conclusive by any means (i'd trust it more coming from JG), but the alternative is to say that jerry is flat-out lying.

You go with that, I see it as the exact opposite. We're talking about a man who'd jump thru hoops, especially in times of fan upheaval, to look smart and reassure the masses that all is well.. He all but said nothing, which means nothing good at all has happened with the nerve. That is a major concern... I still find it comical in any event - were hanging on the edge of our seats, for updates, on a guy who may or may not play in 2017/2018/ever... But hey, we got a steal!