Instant Fantasy Analysis - RB Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys

[tanatastic 2,061]

That puts him right around 12? I'm at the turn and I think there's a good chance I'll be staring at him. I'm still undecided. He's top 5 upside. I haven't decided his floor yet.

His floor is Melvin Gordon last year. Any rookie should have a low floor.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

His floor is Melvin Gordon last year. Any rookie should have a low floor.

Pretty much what I think too. He's a better player but against whom? 18 year olds??

[sirensong 111]

All I can think of in regards to Zeke now is the quote from Se7en.

 

 

that's just about perfect.

[Smileseers 54]

That puts him right around 12? I'm at the turn and I think there's a good chance I'll be staring at him. I'm still undecided. He's top 5 upside. I haven't decided his floor yet.

His floor is injury like every running back. A healthy season would likely result in a top 5 finish.

 

Drafting upside wins trophies.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

His floor is injury like every running back. A healthy season would likely result in a top 5 finish.

 

Drafting upside wins trophies.

You can say that about any draft pick. They all have upside. Melvin Gordon had upside last year.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

His floor is injury like every running back. A healthy season would likely result in a top 5 finish.

 

Drafting upside wins trophies.

Injury floor is obvious. You think if he doesn't get injured he's top 5? I'm betting there's a significant chance he isn't top 5 and isn't injured and he's likely between those things. That's what I'm looking for.

 

Also upside wins is a crap statement. It also loses a lot. You think the guy that wins, me for example last year, was the only one that had upside? Kirk Cousins in the last 5 weeks was my upside and sitting on D. Johnson for 10 weeks? You're right in a way but that's just such a small simplistic portion of the big picture.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

Dmac 230ish carries with 4.6

Randle 75ish carries with 4.1

 

300 carries that Zeek realistically gets most of.

 

These numbers make me think he's possibly just taking over Dmacs carries with more as the season progresses. Say 240 carries over the last 14 games or about 17 per game, prob 8 per over the first 4 games gives him 272 on the season. Couple catches a game gives us about 300 touches.

 

270 carries with a modest 4.4 ypc is 1200 yds rushing.

 

Dunbar has averaged about 10 yds per catch over the last 3 seasons but I'm not sure Zeek gets the love Dunbar gets. Let's call it 7 ypc for Zeek. 30 receptions at 7 ypc is another 200 yds.

 

We are at 1400 AP yds. How many TDs? Good question. I have no idea. 8 is a number I will pull from my ass as the middle ground.

 

This gives him 188 standard scoring points good for approximately 5th place finish last year......now we need to figure out the real floor. Not the injury, died in a car crash floor.

 

Haven't looked at FF TODAY'S predictions. Maybe I should now.

 

EDIT: Really damn close. They don't like him with as many carries but the difference is a couple per game.

[Gepetto 988]

People act like McFadden doesn't exist, he could start, or it could be full blown rbbc with 2-3 RBs.

[tanatastic 2,061]

People act like McFadden doesn't exist, he could start, or it could be full blown rbbc with 2-3 RBs.

Same thing happened last year when I got laughed at for suggesting McFadden was the man there and Randle was a bum.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

People act like McFadden doesn't exist, he could start, or it could be full blown rbbc with 2-3 RBs.

Yes, this is the fat middle that people aren't accounting for. My above was a ceiling projection. I assume we take away about 100 carries and 3-4 tds if he's in a split. That puts him more around 800 yds rushing and if Dunbar/Dmac keep the receiving work because he struggles like most rookies in pass protection *I know he's the greatest evah in pass protection* he may not even be a 1000 AP back.

[sirensong 111]

People act like McFadden doesn't exist, he could start, or it could be full blown rbbc with 2-3 RBs.

 

 

there's plenty of room for a second back. DAL is going to be aiming at 30 attempts per game, and they're going to want to keep zeke at somewhere around 18 carries. the reason DMC is getting slighted is scheme fit. he's not a ZBS guy, and he forces DAL into a lot of man-blocking concepts. morris is a much better fit, which obviously makes for better playcalling continuity. so it's easy to play GM in june and say that DMC's salary could be saved by going with morris and the rookie (until dunbar comes back from PUP).

 

but barring a trade, the most likely situation is zeke, morris, and DMC to begin the season.

[giraldi02 470]

McFadden and Morris are best ball fliers.

 

Or they're handcuffs for the Zeke owner

 

That's really about it for 2016.

[R8RMick 242]

I think one of the great wonders of the world is McFadden going injury free (comparatively) last season. Right up there with the Parthenon, the Pyramids, and the Taj Mahal.

[the spanker 28]

 

 

there's plenty of room for a second back. DAL is going to be aiming at 30 attempts per game, and they're going to want to keep zeke at somewhere around 18 carries. the reason DMC is getting slighted is scheme fit. he's not a ZBS guy, and he forces DAL into a lot of man-blocking concepts. morris is a much better fit, which obviously makes for better playcalling continuity. so it's easy to play GM in june and say that DMC's salary could be saved by going with morris and the rookie (until dunbar comes back from PUP).

 

but barring a trade, the most likely situation is zeke, morris, and DMC to begin the season.

 

If the most likely situation is zeke, morris and DMC to begin the season, is there room for a third back on the field even with 30 attempts per game to justify zeke being a first rounder in drafts this year?

[the spanker 28]

May not matter:

 

ESPN's Todd Archer believes it is still possible the Cowboys trade Darren McFadden.

Cowboys EVP Stephen Jones said the team turned down offers for both McFadden and Alfred Morris during the draft, but it is possible they will feel more comfortable letting one of them go once No. 4 overall pick Ezekiel Elliott gets settled in. McFadden brings more to the passing game than Morris, but Morris just signed in March. No matter what the Cowboys decide to do behind Elliott, the rookie should be the clear lead back. May 31 - 1:01 PM

[Ray_T 591]

People act like McFadden doesn't exist, he could start, or it could be full blown rbbc with 2-3 RBs.

And DMC quietly put up some very good numbers last year. If he'd have played the full season, I wouldnt be surprised if he was top 5.

 

There is the possibility that they start DMC and run him into the ground before giving the job to Zeke.

 

of course, with DMC's injury history, that may not last long (which may be one of the reasons they took Zeke)

 

That being said, if there are holes in his game of any sort (ie. blitz pickup) now is the time to sit him and teach him. There is a guy who can start while he learns. So it could be a case where DMC starts the season and Zeke gradually ramps up his carries until he is the starter. or it may be a RBBC to start the year and all additional carries he will earn.

 

tough to say for sure. But I'd say it is not a foregone conclusion that Zeke will start day 1.

 

The odds are good that he will, but this is not by any means a slam dunk.

[Cruzer 1,992]

DMC and Morris have 2 things in common: both are extremely cap friendly and neither possesses much trade value. So in that, I don't think it would be out of the question to keep both on the roster... If anyone ends up getting cut or moved else way - it will be DMC..... And don't get caught up in who the "starter' is. Romo is on borrowed time and this team doesn't have the luxury of "easing" Zeke into the mix. He will get the majority of touches - period.

[Ray_T 591]

DMC and Morris have 2 things in common: both are extremely cap friendly and neither possesses much trade value. So in that, I don't think it would be out of the question to keep both on the roster... If anyone ends up getting cut or moved else way - it will be DMC..... And don't get caught up in who the "starter' is. Romo is borrowed time and this team doesn't have the luxury of "easing" Zeke into the mix. He will get the majority of touches - period.

True.

 

honestly, considering how cap friendly the deal is, I wouldnt be surprised to see a team like Miami offer up a 4th or 5th round pick for him. or possibly a backup in another position.

 

I Miami claims to be happy with the position of RB, but they tried to sign a number of FA players, so I dont know how truly happy they are with their situation. Of course, they didnt draft anyone with a high pick, so its tough to figure exactly what they are thinking there.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

True.

 

honestly, considering how cap friendly the deal is, I wouldnt be surprised to see a team like Miami offer up a 4th or 5th round pick for him. or possibly a backup in another position.

 

I Miami claims to be happy with the position of RB, but they tried to sign a number of FA players, so I dont know how truly happy they are with their situation. Of course, they didnt draft anyone with a high pick, so its tough to figure exactly what they are thinking there.

I think Miami may go after Foster and that backfield becomes a split trying to keep him healthy and get Ajayi a decent look.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Jerry told his GM that they were going to draft Elliot. I guarantee he is the feature back since it was Jerrys pick. Otherwise heads will roll.

[Ray_T 591]

Jerry told his GM that they were going to draft Elliot. I guarantee he is the feature back since it was Jerrys pick. Otherwise heads will roll.

If this was Jerry's pick you are most definitely right.

 

I forgot to factor in the Jerry factor....lol

[Cruzer 1,992]

Jerry told his GM that they were going to draft Elliot. I guarantee he is the feature back since it was Jerrys pick. Otherwise heads will roll.

Makes it even more certain since Red was totally on board and wanting Zeke as well... There will be no honeymoon period - Elliot will be expected to deliver, heavily - year 1.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

Jerry is a delusional old man that isn't driving this train anymore than my 4 year old when she sits in my lap "driving" in the driveway.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Jerry is a delusional old man that isn't driving this train anymore than my 4 year old when she sits in my lap "driving" in the driveway.

I completely disagree. I thought the Cowboys had been making smarter moves the past few years. Zeke was a dumb pick. I don't care how anyone tries to spin it. Running back is not important, and Zeke is not Gurley good imo. I think Jerry jumped back in to the decision loop.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

I completely disagree. I thought the Cowboys had been making smarter moves the past few years. Zeke was a dumb pick. I don't care how anyone tries to spin it. Running back is not important, and Zeke is not Gurley good imo. I think Jerry jumped back in to the decision loop.

In listening to him fumble over player names and talk about team dynamics, he just seems like he doesn't know what the F he's taking about. He just likes getting the media attention.

 

No way to know but he's certainly got some age on him.

 

Edit: I'm not saying he didn't push for Zeek, but I think others agreed with his pick. I also might be in the minority but I'm ok with the pick.

[Ray_T 591]

I completely disagree. I thought the Cowboys had been making smarter moves the past few years. Zeke was a dumb pick. I don't care how anyone tries to spin it. Running back is not important, and Zeke is not Gurley good imo. I think Jerry jumped back in to the decision loop.

Well, he owns the team. it really doesnt matter how dumb he is. if he says the kid plays, then that is what will happen.

 

RB is as important as any position on the team. and with a top O line there is really no reason not to get top production out of the RB position.

 

I do agree a pick for the defense would have been better for the team short term. But offense is what sells tickets and Jerry is all about filling the seats.

 

either way, I would have made the pick next year, but maybe the plan is to get a QB next year, and then load up the D.

 

anyhow, this kind of speculation can be pointless as there are far too many permutations and combinations of possibilities that really dont matter because they didnt happen. The bottom line is that the offense will be solid as long as Romo stays upright and healthy. Maybe a more run based offense will take some heat off the D. If they see less time on the field, the Defensive numbers will improve some.

 

Lets hope the strategy pays off.

 

if Romo does get hurt, we could be looking at another top pick that can be used on a QB to replace Romo.

[giraldi02 470]

Behind that offensive line, with that running back, and Dez Bryant, Dak Prescott could easily be thrust into a very favorable fantasy situation

http://www.nbcdfw.com/blogs/blue-star/Dak-Prescott-Making-Fast-Progress-in-OTAs-381998301.html

[sirensong 111]

 

if Romo does get hurt, we could be looking at another top pick that can be used on a QB to replace Romo.

 

this was the rationale behind the refusal to get desperate about romo's successor with the 4th pick.

 

"high picks don't come around that often."

 

"if romo gets hurt again, they will."

[Cruzer 1,992]

"if romo gets hurt again, they will."

As much as I thought we should have gone another direction - there are 2 saving grace points that do make me happy about the Zeke pick.

 

* We didn't pick Bosa.. Yea I know he wasn't available but I was worried as hell we'd be tempted to take him. MUCH happier w/Zeke than he.

 

* Zeke is a phenomenal pass protector... People rant and rave about Emmitt's accomplishments running the ball - few realize just how damn good of a blocker he was, and that was huge.

[Ray_T 591]

 

* Zeke is a phenomenal pass protector... People rant and rave about Emmitt's accomplishments running the ball - few realize just how damn good of a blocker he was, and that was huge.

good info here. thanks.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Behind that offensive line, with that running back, and Dez Bryant, Dak Prescott could easily be thrust into a very favorable fantasy situation

 

http://www.nbcdfw.com/blogs/blue-star/Dak-Prescott-Making-Fast-Progress-in-OTAs-381998301.html

Thats the second time I have heard this kids name. A friend says he is good and has potential eventually. With Romos injury history, its not absurd to think a dark horse like Dak could be forced into a game or two of meaningful roles.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

How much college ball do you guys watch?

[Ray_T 591]

Thats the second time I have heard this kids name. A friend says he is good and has potential eventually. With Romos injury history, its not absurd to think a dark horse like Dak could be forced into a game or two of meaningful roles.

I just looked at some scouting reports on him.

 

looks good. definitely has some issues, but I think those can be resolved with some coaching and time.

 

I think it may realistically take 1-2 years to resolve these issues, but I think if hes a quick study, he can be ready when Romo is done.

 

from what I hear, his work ethic is very good and he has all the intangibles that you want.

 

obviously hes a bit of a lotto pick, but I do like the pickup.

[Cruzer 1,992]

Thats the second time I have heard this kids name. A friend says he is good and has potential eventually. With Romos injury history, its not absurd to think a dark horse like Dak could be forced into a game or two of meaningful roles.

Many of us were at least happy to see a qb finally taken in the draft... But many of us also remember Quincy Carter. He too was a 6'2", extremely mobile, good arm type prospect... Not saying Prescott is the head case Carter was - but many of us are leary... Hopefully Romo can stay healthy long enough to give Dak time to develop and learn.

[sirensong 111]

Many of us were at least happy to see a qb finally taken in the draft... But many of us also remember Quincy Carter. He too was a 6'2", extremely mobile, good arm type prospect... Not saying Prescott is the head case Carter was - but many of us are leary... Hopefully Romo can stay healthy long enough to give Dak time to develop and learn.

 

the positives about dak are intangibles, particularly leadership. this sets him head and shoulders above carter from the very beginning. the real test will be how well he can learn to see the field.

[polecatt 403]

The Cowboys will certainly try to be a dominant running team, so Zeke will get the ball a lot. He may not get close to DeMarco Murray's 392 carries in 2014 but there's a good chance he pushes 300. McFadden and Morris could still get a reasonable amount of carries, especially early in the season. Don't be surprised if the first 2 or 3 games there is a committee but not much longer than that. Not sure how good he will be his rookie season catching the ball but I think he'll do reasonably well.

[Ray_T 591]

 

the positives about dak are intangibles, particularly leadership. this sets him head and shoulders above carter from the very beginning. the real test will be how well he can learn to see the field.

Yes, all the scouting reports said the intangibles are awesome. Smart kid, Great work ethic, likeable person, good leader. All the things you want. and he can make all the throws too. he just needs to clean up the technique some. he overthrows the deep ball too often and needs to develop that touch. Throws too many fastballs on short passes. (these are coachable) Hes also not exceptionally mobile. but I dont think that's a deal breaker. This may be the type of kid that can learn behind a guy like Romo and take it all in. No guarantees of course, but I think they did okay with this kid. At least they have someone in the pipeline who could possibly step up next year or the year after (assuming he develops as planned)

[tanatastic 2,061]

Ok hypothetical time guys. If You magically knew for a fact that Zeke were to get exactly 300 carries this year, where would you take him?

[sirensong 111]

Ok hypothetical time guys. If You magically knew for a fact that Zeke were to get exactly 300 carries this year, where would you take him?

 

well, word from OTAs is that DAL has been focusing on the screen game specifically because they see EE as a very dangerous receiving threat. given that, we're talking about possibly 350 touches, and approaching 2K combined yards (call it 4.5YPC and 8YPR).

 

given those numbers, you'd have to ask who you could draft before elliott.

[polecatt 403]

Ok hypothetical time guys. If You magically knew for a fact that Zeke were to get exactly 300 carries this year, where would you take him?

 

1st definitely. You are talking about a top 3 RB with no chance of injury.

Projected stats with 300 carries- 1300-1400+ yards, 12 TDs