The top 5 receivers as of now

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Didn't you say you where going to avoid Hopkins ?

 

Now you think that they should trade away either , Brown or Beckham Jr or J Jones for a wr that you said you are avoiding ?

Yes I wouldn't do that, but Hopkins is almost universally ranked as the #4 receiver. So trading #3 for #4 receiver seems pretty fair if someone has him ranked that high.

 

Not all of us follow the exact same rankings weepies.

 

Amazing how your grammar straightens out a bit when you want to get a dig in on me.

[weepaws 2,501]

Lol I'm not digging I'm asking you a question .

 

Think skin huh lol , I think not .

[thePRO 78]

1. ODB

2. Julio Jones

3. Brown

4. Dez

5. A. Robinson

 

6. Green

7. Marshall

8. Evans

9. Hopkins

10. Keenan Allen

 

I could see Cooks and Nelson possibly sneaking in there. Threw in Evans because my list would be boring had I included an obvious top 10. Jeffery misses 2-3 games this year and it keeps him around 12th overall.

[Mike Nice 40]

Aj greens targets were down last year. His targets will be back up to 160ish as before and finish a top 4 wr.

 

A lot of people expecting big regression from A rob, but I see it differently. I think he is on the rise and will be even better in his third year

[the spanker 28]

Aj greens targets were down last year. His targets will be back up to 160ish as before and finish a top 4 wr.

 

A lot of people expecting big regression from A rob, but I see it differently. I think he is on the rise and will be even better in his third year

 

Convince me why that's the case.

[thePRO 78]

It'd be really hard for A Robinson to do better this year. But we should see more of the same from him. I just don't expect 14 TD's again this season.

 

Here's the thing though, he had 151 targets last year and caught only 80 of them. I'm a bit lazy right now to look at other WR's, but that seems like a semi-low catch %.

 

Bortles should continue to get better. They've added Ivory which should help open up things more in the passing game. Although the downfall there is that they'll pound Ivory at the GL. Though I remember they would do the same with Yeldon and would fail pretty badly. Toward the end of the year, they used A Robinson as a weapon at the GL. That should continue this season.

 

Bortles loves to take shots downfield at Robinson about 5 times a game. Even though the Jags are improved, I think they'll be in some high scoring games and be playing from behind half of the time.

 

140 targets 90 catches 1,350 yards 12 TD

 

Dropped his yards down because I don't see him getting as many 70-80 yard bombs like last season. That was ridiculous.

[Mike Nice 40]

Convince me why that's the case.

Why what is the case?

[Mike Nice 40]

Elite wrs are going to be elite regardless of the situation. I feel a rob is now in the elite conversation, and will put up elite numbers from here on out

[$epphori$ 118]

I really like Allen Robinson. Jaguars offense seems to be on the rise is there a chance he can IMPROVE on the numbers he put up last year? I believe so.

1,500 yards and 14TDs is tough to improve on. I am a fan but that is an awful lot to expect

[Mike Nice 40]

1,500 yards and 14TDs is tough to improve on. I am a fan but that is an awful lot to expect

Same was said about antonio brown.

 

He only had 80 receptions, definately room for improvement

[the spanker 28]

Same was said about antonio brown.

 

He only had 80 receptions, definately room for improvement

 

Not only are guys leaving out the Ivory factor, which if you take a look at the number of times the Jags TRIED to run the ball (look up the numbers for yourself) in the redzone but were unsuccessful and later simply gave up---Your not accounting for a healthy Julius Thomas who wasn't healthy to start the season last year and never got fully integrated into the O. 'Orange Crush Julius' was a red-zone BEAST when he played with Denver for two years before coming to the Jags.

 

Add in the D, which has nowhere to go but up considering all the talent there and I see less a lot less shootouts.

 

I will say it's highly unlikely Robinson improves on last year's numbers and regression is a probability. There is NO WAY I'm taking him in the first round, top of the 2nd, especially in a ppr league where he typically goes. And don't forget about Hurns, another mouth to take away targets.

 

That's too rich of a price tag to pay for too many variables that are working against Allen. He arguably was in a perfect storm last year. He would have to match last years numbers just for you to match the price being paid for in drafts.

 

In my book he's being overvalued. I'd rather look elsewhere for better value.

[General Gannicus 12]

Fun Fact: Allen Robinson had BETTER production when his team was leading/in the game or tied.... So the whole "he needs garbage time to get his numbers" argument is not a good one...

 

Their defense is the "you just wait they are gonna be so good the jags won't be in shootouts!" argument that needs to happen before it is to be believed that it would ruin a wr as talented as Robinson...

 

He's the best deep ball tracker and an elite red zone target who I'd take every time over Hopkins...

 

I can come up with reasons the "Holy Five" will disappoint for where they are being drafted--

 

Brown has no Bryant, no tight end, much less of a rb threat and some thing named Wheaton (who should lose out to Coates eventually) so Brown may/will be double/triple/bracket covered early and often plus he's also scored over 10 tds once in his career... #1 overall pick? Nah I wouldn't...

 

Beckham has a seemingly legit #2 (sheppard) who could be a catch machine, two healthy rising tight ends (especially tye), whatever Cruz manages to do, a seemingly renewed interest in the running game and a defense that also has nowhere to go but up.. Plus Norman twice next year...

 

Aj Green has a mess around him too... Hobbled Eifert who doesn't do much between the 20's to worry about but when healthy is the #1 redzone target on that team... No Jones replaced by lafail and one rookie... Total focus of defensive secondary gameplans = No thanks..

 

Hopkins is the one here who has the best shot of finishing out of the top 5... Lamar Miller in to reestablish the dominant running game, plus all his passes he will catch... An early draft pick in Fuller plus Swiss army knife Braxton and the "dramatic improvement" of Jalen Strong point to Hopkins getting less targets this year... Plus that meh qb who may prefer dumping to Miller than chucking one up for grabs like the "nothing to lose" scrappers he had as his qb last year... He's on my dnd list since I'd never pay what his price is...

 

All of the wrs have this or that to point to and not like...

 

Robinson has proven some things these others haven't so saying he will regress is one thing but acting like he isn't worth his pick and that they definitely will be just as good or better than last is something I don't agree with....

 

I think Robinson finishes top 3 and bumps at least two of the "Holy Five" out of top 3 contention....

[the spanker 28]

Fun Fact: Allen Robinson had BETTER production when his team was leading/in the game or tied.... So the whole "he needs garbage time to get his numbers" argument is not a good one...

 

Their defense is the "you just wait they are gonna be so good the jags won't be in shootouts!" argument that needs to happen before it is to be believed that it would ruin a wr as talented as Robinson...

 

He's the best deep ball tracker and an elite red zone target who I'd take every time over Hopkins...

 

I can come up with reasons the "Holy Five" will disappoint for where they are being drafted--

 

Brown has no Bryant, no tight end, much less of a rb threat and some thing named Wheaton (who should lose out to Coates eventually) so Brown may/will be double/triple/bracket covered early and often plus he's also scored over 10 tds once in his career... #1 overall pick? Nah I wouldn't...

 

Beckham has a seemingly legit #2 (sheppard) who could be a catch machine, two healthy rising tight ends (especially tye), whatever Cruz manages to do, a seemingly renewed interest in the running game and a defense that also has nowhere to go but up.. Plus Norman twice next year...

 

Aj Green has a mess around him too... Hobbled Eifert who doesn't do much between the 20's to worry about but when healthy is the #1 redzone target on that team... No Jones replaced by lafail and one rookie... Total focus of defensive secondary gameplans = No thanks..

 

Hopkins is the one here who has the best shot of finishing out of the top 5... Lamar Miller in to reestablish the dominant running game, plus all his passes he will catch... An early draft pick in Fuller plus Swiss army knife Braxton and the "dramatic improvement" of Jalen Strong point to Hopkins getting less targets this year... Plus that meh qb who may prefer dumping to Miller than chucking one up for grabs like the "nothing to lose" scrappers he had as his qb last year... He's on my dnd list since I'd never pay what his price is...

 

All of the wrs have this or that to point to and not like...

 

Robinson has proven some things these others haven't so saying he will regress is one thing but acting like he isn't worth his pick and that they definitely will be just as good or better than last is something I don't agree with....

 

I think Robinson finishes top 3 and bumps at least two of the "Holy Five" out of top 3 contention....

 

Top 3 huh. We will revisit this thread at the end of the season.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

 

Not only are guys leaving out the Ivory factor, which if you take a look at the number of times the Jags TRIED to run the ball (look up the numbers for yourself) in the redzone but were unsuccessful and later simply gave up---Your not accounting for a healthy Julius Thomas who wasn't healthy to start the season last year and never got fully integrated into the O. 'Orange Crush Julius' was a red-zone BEAST when he played with Denver for two years before coming to the Jags.

 

Add in the D, which has nowhere to go but up considering all the talent there and I see less a lot less shootouts.

 

I will say it's highly unlikely Robinson improves on last year's numbers and regression is a probability. There is NO WAY I'm taking him in the first round, top of the 2nd, especially in a ppr league where he typically goes. And don't forget about Hurns, another mouth to take away targets.

 

That's too rich of a price tag to pay for too many variables that are working against Allen. He arguably was in a perfect storm last year. He would have to match last years numbers just for you to match the price being paid for in drafts.

 

In my book he's being overvalued. I'd rather look elsewhere for better value.

I think half of Robinson's TDs were from 15+ yards out so I don't suspect GL carries from a RB or targets to the TE will hurt him much, as you said, they ran the ball a bunch at the GL last year albeit mostly unsuccessful.

 

What nobody has mentioned is what if Bortles improves on last year as well? Robinsons 80 catches should improve. Also I'm sick of hearing about Chris ivory. We all know how fragile he is, there's no way they're going to run him into the ground. Especially with TJ Yeldon on the roster.

 

If the 3rd year WR rule has taught us anything....

[himmystyles 29]

I could see Dez finishing in the top 5.

Still debating him vs green.

[himmystyles 29]

Anyone including jordy Nelson in this list?

[Flgatorguy87 160]

Anyone including jordy Nelson in this list?

 

I'd say just outside, but if he's off the PUP before I draft I'm not going to be scared away from him. Rodgers loves him, and for good reason.

 

Brown

OBJ

Julio

Nuk

Dez

AJ

Allen

Jordy

Evans

Hilton

Marshall

[DrG 94]

The Jags have been consistently improving their roster over the last few years. Less targets and a bump in catch % and ARob could easily be around the numbers he had last year. A more diversified offense should mean more open looks vs. Bortles forcing it in to him, right?

 

As the 'alpha' skill position talent in this offense, my 2 cents is he is one of the guys who could break into the Top 5.

[the spanker 28]

I think half of Robinson's TDs were from 15+ yards out so I don't suspect GL carries from a RB or targets to the TE will hurt him much, as you said, they ran the ball a bunch at the GL last year albeit mostly unsuccessful.

 

What nobody has mentioned is what if Bortles improves on last year as well? Robinsons 80 catches should improve. Also I'm sick of hearing about Chris ivory. We all know how fragile he is, there's no way they're going to run him into the ground. Especially with TJ Yeldon on the roster.

 

If the 3rd year WR rule has taught us anything....

 

 

I'm trying to remember the ratio. IRRC it was 30 TD passes and only 5 rushing TDs for the year. There is no way that holds true this year. They brought in Ivory to be the GL thumper and Yeldon serves the role of keeping Ivory fresh to execute in the redzone.

 

I'm not in love with Bortles either. He fumbles and turns the ball over way too much. I think all signs point the Jags will try to regulate Bortles to a game manager as much as possible 'especially' if the defense improves.

 

Again, I've said this repeatedly, Ivory was brought in to convert those rushing TDs and the writing is on the wall the Jags want to run the ball down there. There is no way Bortles throws for that many TDs again because the Jags now have a guy they brought in exclusively for that role.

 

Ivory will be that man.

 

And Julius Thomas must be factored in even when they do throw it down there. He's a redzone beast when healthy but by all means pay that first round price tag for Allen.

[Mike Nice 40]

So who's your first round wr, with no rbs in the backfield?

[Mike Nice 40]

A-rob had 12 tds in the games j thomas played last year. Yet you magically think Thomas is going to steal all the TDs?

 

We get it you don't like him. His receptions will rise with his tds may regress but stay double digits.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

 

 

I'm trying to remember the ratio. IRRC it was 30 TD passes and only 5 rushing TDs for the year. There is no way that holds true this year. They brought in Ivory to be the GL thumper and Yeldon serves the role of keeping Ivory fresh to execute in the redzone.

 

I'm not in love with Bortles either. He fumbles and turns the ball over way too much. I think all signs point the Jags will try to regulate Bortles to a game manager as much as possible 'especially' if the defense improves.

 

Again, I've said this repeatedly, Ivory was brought in to convert those rushing TDs and the writing is on the wall the Jags want to run the ball down there. There is no way Bortles throws for that many TDs again because the Jags now have a guy they brought in exclusively for that role.

 

Ivory will be that man.

 

And Julius Thomas must be factored in even when they do throw it down there. He's a redzone beast when healthy but by all means pay that first round price tag for Allen.

Did you skip over the fact that half of Robinson's TDs came from OUTSIDE the 15 yard line? I don't think GL carries for Ivory correlate to lesser production for Robinson.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Too often we think one thing means another wont happen. ARob is among the best wr in the league and will play as such. Its impossible to predict tds but he will get many opportunities and make the most of them. Just bank on talented guys with QBs who figure to chuck it around and throw 30tds, those are the guys you want.

[the spanker 28]

A-rob had 12 tds in the games j thomas played last year. Yet you magically think Thomas is going to steal all the TDs?

 

We get it you don't like him. His receptions will rise with his tds may regress but stay double digits.

 

Thomas came into the season hurt and never got the training camp and preseason time to bond with Bortles. This year is completely different.

 

And read my post. I never said Thomas is going to steal all the TDs. I said between him and Ivory expect Allen's TDs numbers to regress.

 

14 TDs is a lofty number. To put that into perspective, there have been 56 time in NFL HISTORY that a WR has caught 14 plus TDs in a season.

 

As I stated before, the game script was super favorable for the Jags last year, as there was a TON of garbage time production. The run game and D should be improved and Gus Bradley is a defensive-minded coach, so he won't press the action unless he needs to.

 

If you really think the pass/run TD ratio will stay the same as last year....then I've got this fabulous bridge to sell you.

 

However I warn you, this bridge is fully valued with little to no upside with red flags waving it may be overpriced.

 

 

 

[Mike Nice 40]

B marsh caught 14 last year with Ivory in backfield....

 

TDs dont make or break a wr, i'll take 90 and 1300 all day as a wr1. The writing was on the wall before the season even started last year that a rob was a special talent. It also showed the first preseason game.

 

Guy is an elite whether you like it or not.

[tanatastic 2,061]

B marsh caught 14 last year with Ivory in backfield....

 

TDs dont make or break a wr, i'll take 90 and 1300 all day as a wr1. The writing was on the wall before the season even started last year that a rob was a special talent. It also showed the first preseason game.

 

Guy is an elite whether you like it or not.

Thats why I love DT this year. He had 105 1300 and it was basically his floor and many called him a bust. Ill take that and be happy from any wr.

[the spanker 28]

B marsh caught 14 last year with Ivory in backfield....

 

TDs dont make or break a wr, i'll take 90 and 1300 all day as a wr1. The writing was on the wall before the season even started last year that a rob was a special talent. It also showed the first preseason game.

 

Guy is an elite whether you like it or not.

 

 

Sigh.....Did I say ANYTHING about his talent? Reading comprehension.

 

What I said is the SITUATION is different from last year.

 

Nevermind....

[davidbostonisgood 2]

Top 5:

In no particular order

a.Brown

OBJ

Julio

ajGreen

 

those four are in a league of their own...

the fifth spot is up for grabs.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

 

 

 

14 TDs is a lofty number. To put that into perspective, there have been 56 time in NFL HISTORY that a WR has caught 14 plus TDs in a season.

Lol this stat literally puts nothing into perspective. The league has changed to a passing league in the last decade the likes of which has never been seen in NFL HISTORY.... Can't really compare.

 

One would think Hurns' 10 TDs last year would've hurt ARob's production right? But it didn't..

[the spanker 28]

Lol this stat literally puts nothing into perspective. The league has changed to a passing league in the last decade the likes of which has never been seen in NFL HISTORY.... Can't really compare.

 

One would think Hurns' 10 TDs last year would've hurt ARob's production right? But it didn't..

 

LOL Hurns was the only one to take targets and TD opportunities away. I can't believe that's you're rationale for this year.

[jimaveli 119]

A rhyme for Marshall: when he's alive, he's top 5. Maybe even with Geno. He's really good.

 

With that, Brown, Julio, and Marshall are 3 of the 5. I feel great about all of those assuming health.

 

I'm terrified about it but I can't shake the feeling that Keenan Allen catches a slew of passes as expected and adds in the 8 or more tds he needs to get into the top 5. He really was well in his way last year.

 

My 5th? DT. I think the targets will continue to be there (150 or more). I also have a feeling that he will lose some of the dropsies that helped kill him last year. And maybe he's not sitting around worrying about money and/or his mom this year. And just imagine if Denver has to throw more. He could be a gift in the third in pprs. And really...Peyton had been impressively bad for most of 1.5 seasons.

 

My dream draft has DT and Hamster falling to the end of the 3rd in a 10-man. I doubt it but it would be sooooo lovely.

 

I'm also feeling like Marvin Jones is gonna end up really high on listsat the end of the year (top 10-ish and on the 'I had him and he helped land me a league championship' lists), but that could be gas from chorizo and gorditas.

[Mike Nice 40]

LOL Hurns was the only one to take targets and TD opportunities away. I can't believe that's you're rationale for this year.

 

Move along troll.

[the spanker 28]

Move along troll.

 

Troll? Did I hurt your poor feelings?

 

So now since you're left with nothing to support your position, you resort to childish name calling here?

 

Hilarious.

[Byrdman5 104]

Top 5 at end of season

 

1. AROB

2. Keenan Allen

3. Antonio Brown

4. Dez Bryant

5. Jordy Nelson

 

I think Eli will get hurt this year, so no ODJ (Gut feeling he has the current longest active QB start streak). Julio wont make it all 16 and fall short. Hopkins and Osweiler? I just dont see it working. Love BMarshall but i just see regression.

 

AROB and Bortles will continue to get better this year(Both 3rd year players). Keenan Allen will pick up where he left off last year. Brown is still beast. Dez and Jordy both bounce back.

[Mike Nice 40]

Troll? Did I hurt your poor feelings?

 

So now since you're left with nothing to support your position, you resort to childish name calling here?

 

Hilarious.

I said plenty to support my side, but you were ignorant to it. I'm over it.

[giraldi02 470]

 

Thomas came into the season hurt and never got the training camp and preseason time to bond with Bortles. This year is completely different.

 

And read my post. I never said Thomas is going to steal all the TDs. I said between him and Ivory expect Allen's TDs numbers to regress.

 

14 TDs is a lofty number. To put that into perspective, there have been 56 time in NFL HISTORY that a WR has caught 14 plus TDs in a season.

 

As I stated before, the game script was super favorable for the Jags last year, as there was a TON of garbage time production. The run game and D should be improved and Gus Bradley is a defensive-minded coach, so he won't press the action unless he needs to.

 

If you really think the pass/run TD ratio will stay the same as last year....then I've got this fabulous bridge to sell you.

 

However I warn you, this bridge is fully valued with little to no upside with red flags waving it may be overpriced.

 

 

 

 

While I believe there will be regression...

 

Counter-argument here, particularly as it pertains to the red zone, where Ivory would most likely affect the numbers:

 

Last season the Jaguars ran the ball a total of 26 times inside the 10 yard line. They attempted 45 passes inside the 10.

In 2014, the Jaguars ran the ball 18 times inside the 10 yard line and attempted 14 passes.

 

Now here's an interesting number. Bortles over those two seasons has a total of 28 completions inside the 10 yard line. 22 of those completions are touchdowns. He's getting the job done in the red zone. The Jaguars improved their red zone scoring percentage (TD's) last season by nearly 13% from the previous season.

 

A big reason for that WAS Robinson. Eight of his nine catches when targeted inside the 10 were touchdowns.

 

As for Ivory, he's a bruiser, but I don't know if his short-yard rushing is THAT good.

 

He had the most carries in the NFL last season inside the 5 yard line. He had 5 touchdowns to show for it.

 

Over his career he's been so-so inside the opponent's 10 yd line. 68 rushing attempts and 17 touchdowns

For comparison, Jeremy Hill has 44 rushing attempts inside the 10 and has 16 touchdowns.

 

What does it all mean? Who knows. Gus Bradley has clearly shown a sign of incompetence in the red zone. Last season there were plenty of times where he'd put in Denard Robinson or Toby Gerhart and the drive stalled inside the 5. While I'm not sure he's gun shy, he might trust his QB more than his offensive line to get a push. While Ivory might siphon some of the goal-line touches, the other thing to consider is that A-Rob might get a lot more work elsewhere on the field.

 

From the 20 to 20 yard line, Robinson only had 97 targets, 49 catches, 875 yards, and a touchdown. As he continues to develop and enters his third year, it's not unreasonable to believe that he might soon approach the target numbers of the upper echelon of receivers in the middle of the field. Julio Jones had 136 targets in that area. Antonio Brown had 132 targets.

[the spanker 28]

I said plenty to support my side, but you were ignorant to it. I'm over it.

 

Then leave the name calling out okay?

[the spanker 28]

 

While I believe there will be regression...

 

Counter-argument here, particularly as it pertains to the red zone, where Ivory would most likely affect the numbers:

 

Last season the Jaguars ran the ball a total of 26 times inside the 10 yard line. They attempted 45 passes inside the 10.

In 2014, the Jaguars ran the ball 18 times inside the 10 yard line and attempted 14 passes.

 

Now here's an interesting number. Bortles over those two seasons has a total of 28 completions inside the 10 yard line. 22 of those completions are touchdowns. He's getting the job done in the red zone. The Jaguars improved their red zone scoring percentage (TD's) last season by nearly 13% from the previous season.

 

A big reason for that WAS Robinson. Eight of his nine catches when targeted inside the 10 were touchdowns.

 

As for Ivory, he's a bruiser, but I don't know if his short-yard rushing is THAT good.

 

He had the most carries in the NFL last season inside the 5 yard line. He had 5 touchdowns to show for it.

 

Over his career he's been so-so inside the opponent's 10 yd line. 68 rushing attempts and 17 touchdowns

For comparison, Jeremy Hill has 44 rushing attempts inside the 10 and has 16 touchdowns.

 

What does it all mean? Who knows. Gus Bradley has clearly shown a sign of incompetence in the red zone. Last season there were plenty of times where he'd put in Denard Robinson or Toby Gerhart and the drive stalled inside the 5. While I'm not sure he's gun shy, he might trust his QB more than his offensive line to get a push. While Ivory might siphon some of the goal-line touches, the other thing to consider is that A-Rob might get a lot more work elsewhere on the field.

 

From the 20 to 20 yard line, Robinson only had 97 targets, 49 catches, 875 yards, and a touchdown. As he continues to develop and enters his third year, it's not unreasonable to believe that he might soon approach the target numbers of the upper echelon of receivers in the middle of the field. Julio Jones had 136 targets in that area. Antonio Brown had 132 targets.

 

Great post. I'm not saying Allen will be a bust or anything like that. I'm saying there will be TD regression therefore he doesn't justify a 1st round pick.

 

I wasn't trying to get anyone's panties twisted up on here.

[giraldi02 470]

 

Great post. I'm not saying Allen will be a bust or anything like that. I'm saying there will be TD regression therefore he doesn't justify a 1st round pick.

 

I wasn't trying to get anyone's panties twisted up on here.

That's the nature of this bored.

 

For the TD argument, it really just depends on what you're projecting as a regression. He could lose touchdowns but net the same, or close, points as last year.

 

If he tops 100 receptions this year (which I personally am projecting), that'll account for 3 touchdowns lost in PPR (last season he had 80 catches). And if Ivory can leech those three, combined with getting 80% of the Jags' RZ rushing TD's from last year, it could create a situation where you're right about the rushing regression, but Robinson's overall value is minimally affected.

 

Then it's just a matter of the other WR's and/or JT siphoning A-Rob's TDs. While this could happen, particularly if JT is healthy, I think Bortles trusts Robinson more so than any other teammate in those situations. But it's not foolish in any regards to expect touchdown regression when you have a player go from 2 to 14.

[the spanker 28]

That's the nature of this bored.

 

For the TD argument, it really just depends on what you're projecting as a regression. He could lose touchdowns but net the same, or close, points as last year.

 

If he tops 100 receptions this year (which I personally am projecting), that'll account for 3 touchdowns lost in PPR (last season he had 80 catches). And if Ivory can leech those three, combined with getting 80% of the Jags' RZ rushing TD's from last year, it could create a situation where you're right about the rushing regression, but Robinson's overall value is minimally affected.

 

Then it's just a matter of the other WR's and/or JT siphoning A-Rob's TDs. While this could happen, particularly if JT is healthy, I think Bortles trusts Robinson more so than any other teammate in those situations. But it's not foolish in any regards to expect touchdown regression when you have a player go from 2 to 14.

 

 

Thank you for your last sentence. I don't think he gets to 100 receptions. I expect the defense to be improved therefore limiting the amount of catches he gets. If the D improves then they won't be forced to air it out in playing catch-up.

 

I mean he had 80 receptions IN A PERFECT STORM last year because of all of those shootouts. I don't think he reaches 100.

 

Also with the team signing Ivory, this means they want to become a more balanced offense. They don't want Bortles slinging the rock all over the place...they want him more in a game manger mode more often than not.

 

Because of Ivory, Allen will not be pulling down that many TDs inside the 5-10 yard line. And he will share targets with JT down there who, himself is a proven redzone beast.