Golf Majors: Predict How Many Each Player Will Ultimately Win

[Fumbleweed 547]

Thought it might be sorta fun to make a list of players and project how many majors each will ultimately win in their careers. Who knows really, but it's fun to speculate from time to time. Here's my projections for what little they are worth:

 

Dustin Johnson- 3

 

Jon Rahm- 2

 

Justin Thomas- 5

 

Jordan Spieth- 8

 

Justin Rose- 2

 

Hideki Matsuyama- 2

 

Rickie Fowler- 1

 

Jason Day- 3

 

Rory McIlroy- 7

 

Brooks Koepka- 2

 

Sergio Garcia- 2

 

Henrik Stenson- 1

 

Tommy Fleetwood- 1

 

Paul Casey- 0

 

Marc Leishman- 1

 

Matt Kuchar- 0

 

Patrick Reed- 0

 

Adam Scott- 2

 

Branden Grace- 1

 

Louis Oosthuzien- 2

 

Charl Schwartzel- 1

 

Bubba Watson- 2

 

Patrick Cantlay- 1

 

Webb Simpson- 1

 

Jason Dufner- 1

 

Martin Kaymer- 2

 

Phil Mickelson- 6

 

Tiger Woods- 14

 

This isn't how many they will win from now on...it's how many they'll win for their careers. So, I am saying thus that guys like Bubba, Dufner, Schwartzel, Webb, and Kaymer for example, won't win any more majors. Thoughts?

[edjr 6,601]

stop making me think

[Mike Honcho 5,284]

stop making me think

 

+1

[TimmySmith 2,782]

Too many for Rory. Doubt he'll win another.

 

I can't imagine DJ not winning 1 year on average for another 5 years.

[Fumbleweed 547]

Too many for Rory. Doubt he'll win another.

 

I can't imagine DJ not winning 1 year on average for another 5 years.

 

On Rory, I think he's motivated to become the all-time leader in major wins as a European. I think that will eventually drive him to 7. Remember, he's only 28 years old, which means he's probably got 15-17 more years to win just 3.

 

As for DJ, you might be right, but his collapse in China last October reminded me of what he's capable of in terms of losing down the stretch of a big tournament. He's too talented to stay on 1 major for the rest of his career, but I don't think he'll win more than two more.

[dain11279 976]

You're banking on a lot of no-names winning majors in the next 10-15 years

[Fumbleweed 547]

You're banking on a lot of no-names winning majors in the next 10-15 years

 

I've accounted for 31 majors from this group alone. When Thomas and Spieth are in their 30s, there will be a whole new crop of 20-somethings ready to win majors just as they did. So, not necessarily "no names". Just guys who haven't arrived on the scene yet.

[NorthernVike 2,087]

Too many to pick. Sorry.

[Fumbleweed 547]

Too many to pick. Sorry.

 

Just pick a few then. Doesn't have to be everyone on my list.

[edjr 6,601]

[KSB] Tiger Woods 19 [/KSB]

[dain11279 976]

 

I've accounted for 31 majors from this group alone. When Thomas and Spieth are in their 30s, there will be a whole new crop of 20-somethings ready to win majors just as they did. So, not necessarily "no names". Just guys who haven't arrived on the scene yet.

 

 

Didn't seem like it was that many.

 

DJ will have 5 or 6 I think before all is said and done. Too much talent and isn't a head case like someone like Rickie or Stenson who I think you have pegged just about right.

 

I'll be bummed if Kooch never wins one, the Open last year might've been his best shot

[Fumbleweed 547]

[KSB] Tiger Woods 119 [/KSB]

 

Fixed.

[Cruzer 1,995]

I'd say all but a couple don't reach that - I'll take the Under.

[listen2me 23 1,873]

I think Rahm is every bit the player that the other top guys are. Hard to project down the line but I would assume he puts up similar numbers to the rest of the guys. Hard to say when he hasn't started winning them yet I suppose.

[edjr 6,601]

I think Rahm is every bit the player that the other top guys are. Hard to project down the line but I would assume he puts up similar numbers to the rest of the guys. Hard to say when he hasn't started winning them yet I suppose.

 

He's 23 and from outside of the USA.

 

I see him winning multiple

[NorthernVike 2,087]

Cruzer - 0

[edjr 6,601]

Cruzer - 0

 

Lawns cut? it is only February

[Fumbleweed 547]

I'd say all but a couple don't reach that - I'll take the Under.

 

I think you are more likely right than wrong on that. New talent will emerge and guys like Tony Finau, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Kevin Chappell, and Alex Noren are all capable of stealing one somewhere down the line. At the Master this year, for example, 30-40 guys have a realistic shot at winning.

[Cruzer 1,995]

 

I think you are more likely right than wrong on that. New talent will emerge and ....

Yea - it's just so dang hard to win them.

 

I think back and remember the same things said about Freddy, DLIII, Duval, Pavin, Kite, Wadkins, Azinger, Weiskopf, etc.. I mean we're talking about HOF giants - all only ever won 1.

 

Looking at it today in the here and now - DJ, Day, Rose, Sergio, Scott, Oosthuizen - these guys are racing towards 40 and barely have 1 each.

[tanatastic 2,062]

Tiger will never win another major, period.

[edjr 6,601]

Tiger will never win another major, period.

 

go away troll

[vuduchile 1,945]

Tiger will never win another major, period.

Take off your coat, pull up a chair and stay awhile.

[supermike80 1,922]

Tiger=0.0

[Fumbleweed 547]

Yea - it's just so dang hard to win them.

 

I think back and remember the same things said about Freddy, DLIII, Duval, Pavin, Kite, Wadkins, Azinger, Weiskopf, etc.. I mean we're talking about HOF giants - all only ever won 1.

 

Looking at it today in the here and now - DJ, Day, Rose, Sergio, Scott, Oosthuizen - these guys are racing towards 40 and barely have 1 each.

 

I think Rose is going to win another major very soon. Same for Day and DJ. Sergio, Louis, and Adam are far less certain. I can't help but think Scott is owed one for the way in which he lost the 2012 Open Championship, but he's not even top 50 in the world right now. I think he was better with Williams as his caddy. Of those you mentioned, I think there's a better than 80% chance that DJ and Day both win at least one more and a 70% chance that Rose does. The others are more iffy. But, like you said, there's only four per year and they're hard to win- especially now.

[WhiteWonder 2,744]

good thread Fumble.

 

I think I'm going to end up being way too generous in my predictions. For starters, while there seems to be less "random" guys that creep and nab one (Jimmy Walker) there is also more overall talent in golf right now which means you'll have all these young guns fighting it out for 4 each year, with some of the vets still capable of catching lightning (ZJ, Phil, Stenson, Sergio, maybe even Eldrick) plus the lesser but still really talented Euro guys who can steal some like Martin Kaymer who seems to come out of nowhere and blitz a field on US soil in a big event every now and then.

 

*side note* this works as a great case study for why I slightly devalue Federer's amount of grand slams. You could never have a thread like this for Tennis and include so many names.

 

Rahm is the perfect example. So young, so talented. Doesn't have the mental makeup to shake off mistakes to win, say, a US Open yet but I can't see myself putting him down for less than 4

 

Rahm - 4

 

Dustin - 7 (people forget hes 34 in June. 1 a year for the next 6 years puts him at 40ish, and 1 a year is tough with these fields. I have a hard time giving anyone 2 in a year)

 

Rory - 7 (already has 4 but he seems a mess and seems to be going to route of Tiger in terms of body/overtraining/injuries. 3 more may be generous)

 

Spieth - 10 (24 years old with 3 under his belt. He seems like possibly the most driven of the young guys out there and least likely to vanish for spells)

 

Rickie - 1 (he'll get his British or a random PGA)

 

Justin Thomas - 5 (same age as Jordan but 1 under his belt. This may be low. I could easily flip flop Justin and Dustin based on age alone)

 

Phil - 7 (I know I know, total homer projection. Im not predicting the elusive US Open but do you really not see him competing at Augusta and various British venues until 53?)

 

Tiger - 15 (If he stays healthy and continues playing and improving as he has been, i'm willing to give him one more for his fanboys before his next surgery)

 

Zach Johnson - 4 (at 42, I feel like he has the time, grit and grind to scratch out 2 more)

 

Matt Kuchar - 0 (sad to say it, one of the good guys. Don't see him getting it done. Needs a Jimmy Walker week)

 

Stenson - 1 (Think he just blew his wad in the duel with Phil. He hasn't really done anything since. Only 41 though)

 

King Louis - 1 (my possible relative. Feels like he has stagnated. Still a great game but a while since hes trended upward. He'll compete, not sure another W is in the cards)

 

Jason Day - 3 (the next aussie to not quite live up the expectations ala my man Greg Norman. I think he'll grab his Masters and one more)

 

Rose - 2

 

Matsuyama - 1

 

Garcia - 1 (if he grabs another it will be a second Green Jacket due to comfort. He needs that comfort level)

 

Bubba - 3 (grabs a 3rd Masters)

 

Fleetwood - 2 (definitely will win a British. Maybe 2)

 

Keopka - 2 (too much talent not to win one more)

 

Patrick Reed - 1 (like Rickie, I think he'll grab his one. a PGA makes the most sense. He has the fire for a US Open, just not sure about between the ears for 4 rounds)

[listen2me 23 1,873]

Rahm- 5

Spieth- 7

Rory- 4

Thomas- 3

Rickie- 1

Day- 3

DJ- 4

Rose- 2

Sergio- 2. I got him winning the Open. Especially now that major monkey is off his back.

 

Tiger and Phil dont win any more.

[BufordT 434]

If Tiger can stay injury free, he'll definitely win one or two more.

 

If he can find another Anthony Galea as his "doctor"....then the sky's the limit.

[Cruzer 1,995]

Wow, some of you guys hand out majors like Halloween candy.

 

Bcoz of Rahm's temperament, I think he's more likely to win zero than he is 2 or more... I'd also be surprised if Rose, Day or Serg ever won another one.. Rory and Spieth, I could easily see racking up several more.

[WhiteWonder 2,744]

 

I think I'm going to end up being way too generous in my predictions.

 

 

Wow, some of you guys hand out majors like Halloween candy.

 

 

 

to be fair...

[listen2me 23 1,873]

I just think Rahm has all the skills. He is what 23? He will probably fix his head a bit as years go by. His head got him to what top 5ish in no time. He was 22 all past year. He was down a ton to DJ in the match play and kept it together and made a serious run if you can remember. He will be fine.

[supermike80 1,922]

If Tiger can stay injury free, he'll definitely win one or two more.

 

If he can find another Anthony Galea as his "doctor"....then the sky's the limit.

No chance in hell. He's too old and too out of practice. And there is way too much young talent out there.

[WhiteWonder 2,744]

okay so by my count of my list above, I handed out 39 majors among those players. Almost 10 years of majors. factor in a random guy winning 1 per year and you're talking almost 13 years of majors. That puts the younger guys on the list in the 35-38 year old range which should still be peak for them (Rahm, Jordan, Justin, Hideki). Even Rory and Rickie will be like 41-42.

 

so I don't think my list of total lifetime majors is all that crazy

[dain11279 976]

If Tiger can stay injury free, he'll definitely win one or two more.

 

If he can find another Anthony Galea as his "doctor"....then the sky's the limit.

 

That's a big if of him staying healthy. But yeah, I still believe he has all the talent. He hasn't even played tournament golf in a year and he's already out there on the brink of being in contention.

 

It'll be really interesting to see what he does when he starts hitting it well on courses that he has success on. He hit hit it like garbage at Torrey and still finished in the top 25.

[edjr 6,601]

 

That's a big if of him staying healthy. But yeah, I still believe he has all the talent. He hasn't even played tournament golf in a year and he's already out there on the brink of being in contention.

 

It'll be really interesting to see what he does when he starts hitting it well on courses that he has success on. He hit hit it like garbage at Torrey and still finished in the top 25.

 

 

If he stays healthy and plays his 15 tournaments a year, he will win at least 1 major.

[TimmySmith 2,782]

If Tiger can stay injury free, he'll definitely win one or two more.

Don't think he has any chance of a major because he can't drive. His long irons and putter used to bail him out. His body isn't up to 2-4 days of playing from the rough at the US Open.

[edjr 6,601]

Don't think he has any chance of a major because he can't drive. His long irons and putter used to bail him out. His body isn't up to 2-4 days of playing from the rough at the US Open.

 

there are 3 other majors, if you hadn't heard.

[TimmySmith 2,782]

 

there are 3 other majors, if you hadn't heard.

When did this happen? I have to assume that their is rough at all of them. Although this Masters I just read about appears to put a premium on positioning off the tee. I'll stick with my comment.

[Fumbleweed 547]

good thread Fumble.

 

I think I'm going to end up being way too generous in my predictions. For starters, while there seems to be less "random" guys that creep and nab one (Jimmy Walker) there is also more overall talent in golf right now which means you'll have all these young guns fighting it out for 4 each year, with some of the vets still capable of catching lightning (ZJ, Phil, Stenson, Sergio, maybe even Eldrick) plus the lesser but still really talented Euro guys who can steal some like Martin Kaymer who seems to come out of nowhere and blitz a field on US soil in a big event every now and then.

 

*side note* this works as a great case study for why I slightly devalue Federer's amount of grand slams. You could never have a thread like this for Tennis and include so many names.

 

Rahm is the perfect example. So young, so talented. Doesn't have the mental makeup to shake off mistakes to win, say, a US Open yet but I can't see myself putting him down for less than 4

 

Rahm - 4

 

Dustin - 7 (people forget hes 34 in June. 1 a year for the next 6 years puts him at 40ish, and 1 a year is tough with these fields. I have a hard time giving anyone 2 in a year)

 

Rory - 7 (already has 4 but he seems a mess and seems to be going to route of Tiger in terms of body/overtraining/injuries. 3 more may be generous)

 

Spieth - 10 (24 years old with 3 under his belt. He seems like possibly the most driven of the young guys out there and least likely to vanish for spells)

 

Rickie - 1 (he'll get his British or a random PGA)

 

Justin Thomas - 5 (same age as Jordan but 1 under his belt. This may be low. I could easily flip flop Justin and Dustin based on age alone)

 

Phil - 7 (I know I know, total homer projection. Im not predicting the elusive US Open but do you really not see him competing at Augusta and various British venues until 53?)

 

Tiger - 15 (If he stays healthy and continues playing and improving as he has been, i'm willing to give him one more for his fanboys before his next surgery)

 

Zach Johnson - 4 (at 42, I feel like he has the time, grit and grind to scratch out 2 more)

 

Matt Kuchar - 0 (sad to say it, one of the good guys. Don't see him getting it done. Needs a Jimmy Walker week)

 

Stenson - 1 (Think he just blew his wad in the duel with Phil. He hasn't really done anything since. Only 41 though)

 

King Louis - 1 (my possible relative. Feels like he has stagnated. Still a great game but a while since hes trended upward. He'll compete, not sure another W is in the cards)

 

Jason Day - 3 (the next aussie to not quite live up the expectations ala my man Greg Norman. I think he'll grab his Masters and one more)

 

Rose - 2

 

Matsuyama - 1

 

Garcia - 1 (if he grabs another it will be a second Green Jacket due to comfort. He needs that comfort level)

 

Bubba - 3 (grabs a 3rd Masters)

 

Fleetwood - 2 (definitely will win a British. Maybe 2)

 

Keopka - 2 (too much talent not to win one more)

 

Patrick Reed - 1 (like Rickie, I think he'll grab his one. a PGA makes the most sense. He has the fire for a US Open, just not sure about between the ears for 4 rounds)

 

As much as I like Zach Johnson, I think he's won his two. I don't think there's any way he gets another one. If he gets two more, as you say, I will run naked while being chased by bulls in the street. I don't think that's even possible.

 

And, like you, I do think Phil wins one more. I think he will end up being the oldest player ever to win a major. Augusta or the British make sense. The US Open is now a young man's event.

[Cruzer 1,995]

I just think Rahm has all the skills. He is what 23?

23 or not - I don't see Rahm's game holding up for the 4 day grind of a major..... least not to the frequency all seem here to think.

 

If he were to win a few, I think they would have to either be at Augusta (where he can spray it all over the place) or in an Open (same reason)... In both cases, I think it would have to be a runaway, where he just blows the field out for 3 days and can coast on Sunday................... Or - be at a ridiculously stupid set up like they had at Erin Hills. A place so wide open even Ian Baker Finch could find a fairway.

[Cruzer 1,995]

Don't think he has any chance of a major because he can't drive. His long irons and putter used to bail him out.

This ^^^.

 

His best shot is at Augusta - and there, I would not put it past him to make a run.......... But give me the under on him ever winning another major, I'll take zero.