Cdub100 3,907 Posted April 12, 2020 10 minutes ago, Alias Detective said: Sure have so far. I’m in a quandary..... What was your plan? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
vuduchile 1,945 Posted April 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Cdub100 said: So what's everyone's call for next week? I'm thinking we keep climbing and end the week up +3% I could see the week ending + or -3%. Unemployment numbers will still suck, but the extra $600/wk plus the stimulus checks will prop up lots of people for awhile. It seems like we’re at or near the COVID peak, so sentiment should turn positive. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bandrus1 413 Posted April 12, 2020 Energy stocks will bounce back even more this week Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Alias Detective 1,400 Posted April 12, 2020 35 minutes ago, Cdub100 said: What was your plan? Waiting for a drop. 20k on the Dow. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-screenshot-of-cnbcs-mad-money-host-jim-cramer-is-everything-that-is-wrong-with-america-2020-04-12?mod=home-page Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthernVike 2,086 Posted April 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Cdub100 said: So what's everyone's call for next week? I'm thinking we keep climbing and end the week up +3% If it dose, I'm bailing. I'm only down about 10G in one account and that would put me down only 5G. It's gotta go back to the lows before the end of the year...doesn't it? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hardcore troubadour 15,429 Posted April 12, 2020 It’s a shell game, ya know. You might win, and some of you will. But they will definitely win. They always do. Just know that going in. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Strike 5,541 Posted April 12, 2020 9 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said: It’s a shell game, ya know. You might win, and some of you will. But they will definitely win. They always do. Just know that going in. Who the Fock is "they"? Anyone can invest and anyone can "win". If you invest in a proper diversified portfolio and just let it grow you'll get a nice rate of return over your lifetime. The people that try to play the market are the ones who have to worry about "winning" and "losing" and that's because you're just as likely to win or lose by putting your entire life savings on black in vegas. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hardcore troubadour 15,429 Posted April 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Strike said: Who the Fock is "they"? Anyone can invest and anyone can "win". If you invest in a proper diversified portfolio and just let it grow you'll get a nice rate of return over your lifetime. The people that try to play the market are the ones who have to worry about "winning" and "losing" and that's because you're just as likely to win or lose by putting your entire life savings on black in vegas. If you don’t know who they are then you should find out. And at some point you have to “play” the market. Recent events have failed to educate people concerning that fact, obviously. You can’t let it ride forever. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Strike 5,541 Posted April 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said: If you don’t know who they are then you should find out. And at some point you have to “play” the market. Recent events have failed to educate people concerning that fact, obviously. You can’t let it ride forever. Tell that to Warren Buffett. He bet the hedge fund industry he could beat them by simply investing in an index fund: https://money.cnn.com/2018/02/24/investing/warren-buffett-annual-letter-hedge-fund-bet/index.html Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Patriotsfatboy1 1,432 Posted April 12, 2020 13 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said: If you don’t know who they are then you should find out. And at some point you have to “play” the market. Recent events have failed to educate people concerning that fact, obviously. You can’t let it ride forever. Even with the recent correction, people invested in the market are up over the last 10 years, 20 years, etc. The key is to know that it is about being in it for the long haul and to not try to day trade, particularly with emotions. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cdub100 3,907 Posted April 12, 2020 52 minutes ago, Alias Detective said: Waiting for a drop. 20k on the Dow. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-screenshot-of-cnbcs-mad-money-host-jim-cramer-is-everything-that-is-wrong-with-america-2020-04-12?mod=home-page Yikes that's a pretty big drop. I'm not sure we will see that with the fed money machine going brrrrrrrrrrrrr. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hardcore troubadour 15,429 Posted April 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said: Even with the recent correction, people invested in the market are up over the last 10 years, 20 years, etc. The key is to know that it is about being in it for the long haul and to not try to day trade, particularly with emotions. Tell that to the people getting ready to retire. Like I said, at some point you have to “play”. I’m not saying not to invest. Where else are you going to put your money? I’m just saying the game is rigged in the favor of the big players. They come first, and they know this. Otherwise you would see them jumping out of buildings. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Patriotsfatboy1 1,432 Posted April 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said: Tell that to the people getting ready to retire. Like I said, at some point you have to “play”. I’m not saying not to invest. Where else are you going to put your money? I’m just saying the game is rigged in the favor of the big players. They come first, and they know this. Otherwise you would see them jumping out of buildings. If you are getting ready to retire, then you adjust what you are invested in and go with lower risk, lower return vehicles. It isn’t that hard or a secret. Back in December, we moved my youngest son’s first year college tuition into low risk funds in his 529, since he is a junior in HS. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hardcore troubadour 15,429 Posted April 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said: If you are getting ready to retire, then you adjust what you are invested in and go with lower risk, lower return vehicles. It isn’t that hard or a secret. Back in December, we moved my youngest son’s first year college tuition into low risk funds in his 529, since he is a junior in HS. Yup. It’s foolproof. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Strike 5,541 Posted April 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said: Yup. It’s foolproof. For the most part it has been over the last 80 years or so. It's certainly better than putting it in a suitcase under your bed as one of my coworker's brother does. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Patriotsfatboy1 1,432 Posted April 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said: Yup. It’s foolproof. Foolproof? No. Without risk? No Better than many other options? Hell yes. You could save your money in a savings account and get a crappy return or you could put it into 4 diversified funds over time and leave it long term. You would be sitting far, far better than the savings account-guy. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hardcore troubadour 15,429 Posted April 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said: Foolproof? No. Without risk? No Better than many other options? Hell yes. You could save your money in a savings account and get a crappy return or you could put it into 4 diversified funds over time and leave it long term. You would be sitting far, far better than the savings account-guy. Yeah, I think I said that already. Caveat Emptor (for some) is all I’m saying. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Alias Detective 1,400 Posted April 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Cdub100 said: Yikes that's a pretty big drop. I'm not sure we will see that with the fed money machine going brrrrrrrrrrrrr. Hard to say. Still have money invested but so far it’s been a bad decision. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cdub100 3,907 Posted April 13, 2020 56 minutes ago, Alias Detective said: Hard to say. Still have money invested but so far it’s been a bad decision. I and everyone else wishes they had a crystal ball... If we do see another bear run I think it will be bad. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bandrus1 413 Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Cdub100 said: I and everyone else wishes they had a crystal ball... If we do see another bear run I think it will be bad. At this point what could trigger the bear run though. We know unemployment is bad, we know profits will be bad. I'm not sure what could scare markets other then more really bad virus outbreaks that lasts well past summer Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Leeson 54 Posted April 13, 2020 2 hours ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said: If you are getting ready to retire, then you adjust what you are invested in and go with lower risk, lower return vehicles. It isn’t that hard or a secret. Back in December, we moved my youngest son’s first year college tuition into low risk funds in his 529, since he is a junior in HS. This is where the financial landscape is different from our parents (or at least mine). In order to retire, and actually live off your investments, you need a reasonable return on your money. For the previous generations, that meant you wanted time in the market over your lifetime in order to build your savings. As you got closer to your retirement age, you moved that money into other vehicles that were low risk, and low to moderate yields. We no longer have that option. If you have $1m and you can't retire with the 4% rule. Where are you getting a guaranteed 4%? Savings, bonds, etc are all yielding much less than they ever have. That forces people to keep their money in the market leading up to, and during, retirement. Your always at risk. It's no longer possible to live off the interest from your nest egg. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cdub100 3,907 Posted April 13, 2020 17 minutes ago, bandrus1 said: At this point what could trigger the bear run though. We know unemployment is bad, we know profits will be bad. I'm not sure what could scare markets other then more really bad virus outbreaks that lasts well past summer We probably agree that there won't be another bear run. As for what can trigger it? Fock man, someone could sneeze and fund managers could go into a selling frenzy. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Patriotsfatboy1 1,432 Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, Leeson said: This is where the financial landscape is different from our parents (or at least mine). In order to retire, and actually live off your investments, you need a reasonable return on your money. For the previous generations, that meant you wanted time in the market over your lifetime in order to build your savings. As you got closer to your retirement age, you moved that money into other vehicles that were low risk, and low to moderate yields. We no longer have that option. If you have $1m and you can't retire with the 4% rule. Where are you getting a guaranteed 4%? Savings, bonds, etc are all yielding much less than they ever have. That forces people to keep their money in the market leading up to, and during, retirement. Your always at risk. It's no longer possible to live off the interest from your nest egg. So, my parents are in this spot now. Your portfolio needs to get 4%. You blend your money with short and long-term vehicles. You only need the 1.5% for the next 2 years money. The 5+ year money can be in the riskier side and can be pulling in the 8+%. It is a blend of investments , just like when you are younger. Just a different blend. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cdub100 3,907 Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said: So, my parents are in this spot now. Your portfolio needs to get 4%. You blend your money with short and long-term vehicles. You only need the 1.5% for the next 2 years money. The 5+ year money can be in the riskier side and can be pulling in the 8+%. It is a blend of investments , just like when you are younger. Just a different blend. Dividend arostacrates Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NorthernVike 2,086 Posted April 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Cdub100 said: Dividend arostacrates Exactly Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Leeson 54 Posted April 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said: So, my parents are in this spot now. Your portfolio needs to get 4%. You blend your money with short and long-term vehicles. You only need the 1.5% for the next 2 years money. The 5+ year money can be in the riskier side and can be pulling in the 8+%. It is a blend of investments , just like when you are younger. Just a different blend. I'm in this right now. We have 29 times our monthly expenses. (general rule is once you achieve 25x with 4% withdrawal, you can retire). I had been moving to cash towards the end of 2019, but moved the rest to cash the end of January. (ultimately, we ended up 95% cash/bond). But, haven't been able to find a blend that I feel confident will give me a 4% return right now. We moved 20% back into the market in mid March. At this point, we are breaking even for the year. I was expecting the market to drop, and then stagnate for a few months while we worked through the virus. The bounce threw things off. Worst case scenario, I sit tight and don't put any more into the market until it's back to exactly where it was in January. It's kind of a cluster fock at this point. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hardcore troubadour 15,429 Posted April 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, Leeson said: I'm in this right now. We have 29 times our monthly expenses. (general rule is once you achieve 25x with 4% withdrawal, you can retire). I had been moving to cash towards the end of 2019, but moved the rest to cash the end of January. (ultimately, we ended up 95% cash/bond). But, haven't been able to find a blend that I feel confident will give me a 4% return right now. We moved 20% back into the market in mid March. At this point, we are breaking even for the year. I was expecting the market to drop, and then stagnate for a few months while we worked through the virus. The bounce threw things off. Worst case scenario, I sit tight and don't put any more into the market until it's back to exactly where it was in January. It's kind of a cluster fock at this point. The real world Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Patriotsfatboy1 1,432 Posted April 13, 2020 I do this thing called “work” and make money. I could retire financially , but what would I do? If I look at my best investment, it is me making money. For me, I need to enjoy what I am doing and the challenge of my work is what I want. Even when I retire, I think I will still work. Maybe Board of Director stuff, but probably more than being a starter at the golf course (although that is good too). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cdub100 3,907 Posted April 13, 2020 11 minutes ago, Leeson said: I'm in this right now. We have 29 times our monthly expenses. (general rule is once you achieve 25x with 4% withdrawal, you can retire). I had been moving to cash towards the end of 2019, but moved the rest to cash the end of January. (ultimately, we ended up 95% cash/bond). But, haven't been able to find a blend that I feel confident will give me a 4% return right now. We moved 20% back into the market in mid March. At this point, we are breaking even for the year. I was expecting the market to drop, and then stagnate for a few months while we worked through the virus. The bounce threw things off. Worst case scenario, I sit tight and don't put any more into the market until it's back to exactly where it was in January. It's kind of a cluster fock at this point. Why not a 60% in a bond fund that pays 3% something like Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF $BND 10% in dividend stocks that pay 5%+ T, F, etc... 30% in dividend aristocrats: MMM, ABBV, GPC, LEG, MDC, KO, JNJ, WMT, SYY Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Leeson 54 Posted April 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, Cdub100 said: Why not a 60% in a bond fund that pays 3% something like Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF $BND 10% in dividend stocks that pay 5%+ T, F, etc... 30% in dividend aristocrats: MMM, ABBV, GPC, LEG, MDC, KO, JNJ, WMT, SYY Part of the problem is where the money is parked. Roughly 50% is in my wife's TSP. 25% is in Vanguard (Roth and Rollover IRA) and 25% is spread out between Well Trade, 403b, other accounts. As you know, TSP doesn't give you a lot of options. (75% G Fund, 25% C Fund) Vanguard money is invested in VFSTX, VBTLX, VBMFX. I had been some dividend funds until January. (OSTIX, PONAX). But moved that to cash as well. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wiffleball 4,790 Posted April 13, 2020 Warren Buffet sure thinks so. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Alias Detective 1,400 Posted April 13, 2020 11 hours ago, Leeson said: This is where the financial landscape is different from our parents (or at least mine). In order to retire, and actually live off your investments, you need a reasonable return on your money. For the previous generations, that meant you wanted time in the market over your lifetime in order to build your savings. As you got closer to your retirement age, you moved that money into other vehicles that were low risk, and low to moderate yields. We no longer have that option. If you have $1m and you can't retire with the 4% rule. Where are you getting a guaranteed 4%? Savings, bonds, etc are all yielding much less than they ever have. That forces people to keep their money in the market leading up to, and during, retirement. Your always at risk. It's no longer possible to live off the interest from your nest egg. Annuities for the PORTION of your money you need guaranteed. I’m not going into a discussion on them here, but they can be a valuable retirement tool. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
frank 2,306 Posted April 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Alias Detective said: Annuities for the PORTION of your money you need guaranteed. I’m not going into a discussion on them here, but they can be a valuable retirement tool. It’s my money and I need it now! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bandrus1 413 Posted April 13, 2020 Can somebody explain this statement "general rule is once you achieve 25x with 4% withdrawal, you can retire). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Leeson 54 Posted April 13, 2020 31 minutes ago, bandrus1 said: Can somebody explain this statement "general rule is once you achieve 25x with 4% withdrawal, you can retire). Forbes Article. Quote In the midst of all this complexity, today let's talk about a very simple rule. I call it the 25x Rule to Early Retirement. Here it is. As a general rule, you need to save 25 times your annual expenses (not salary) to retire. Once you've achieved that milestone, you are financially free. Let's look at an example. If you spend $75,000 a year, you'll need a nest egg of $1,875,000 to retire. You'll notice that I've completely ignored other sources of retirement income, such as social security. If you are retiring early, you won't have access to social security, at least not at first. If you do have other sources of income, however, it's easy enough to make the adjustment. In our example, let's assume our fearless early retiree will receive $25,000 a year from an annuity. In that case, their nest egg need only cover $50,000 a year. Using our 25x rule, that brings down their required savings to $1,250.000. Now let's turn to why this rule works. The financial goal of retirement is to make sure that we die before we run out of money. Financial planners have a more subtle way of stating this stark reality. They call it longevity risk. That's the risk that your money will run out before you do. Putting aside the fancy words, the goal remains the same--making sure we expire before our money does. The theory behind the 25x rule is another rule--the 4% safe withdrawal rate rule-of-thumb. According to the 4% rule, a retiree can withdraw 4% of their investments in the first year of retirement. In subsequent years, they can then increase the amount by the rate of inflation. At this withdrawal rate, the theory goes, the retiree has a reasonable chance of dying before they run out of money. The 4% rule is covered in detail in the Trinity Study. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bandrus1 413 Posted April 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Leeson said: Forbes Article. annual makes sense in your post u said 29X monthly and that made no sense to me Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Leeson 54 Posted April 13, 2020 45 minutes ago, Alias Detective said: Annuities for the PORTION of your money you need guaranteed. I’m not going into a discussion on them here, but they can be a valuable retirement tool. Annuities are an option. I was just pointing out that our parents had the option of putting that PORTION of their retirement into a high yield savings account. Their cash was still available to them. What if you hit 70 and realize you don't need $1000 a month, but would rather take a round the world trip or help a grand kid with college? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Leeson 54 Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, bandrus1 said: annual makes sense in your post u said 29X monthly and that made no sense to me Sorry. My mistake. Yes, 25x annual of your expenses. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Alias Detective 1,400 Posted April 13, 2020 13 minutes ago, Leeson said: Annuities are an option. I was just pointing out that our parents had the option of putting that PORTION of their retirement into a high yield savings account. Their cash was still available to them. What if you hit 70 and realize you don't need $1000 a month, but would rather take a round the world trip or help a grand kid with college? You use the annuity to cover basic monthly expenses. Your round the world trip comes from other sources. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
vuduchile 1,945 Posted April 13, 2020 We started looking closely at my wife's 401K around a month ago when the schools shut down and states started issuing stay at home orders. We ultimately decided to ride it out and didn't change anything. A helluva lot has happened since then, but below is the 1 month performance of the Dow, the S&P and the Nasdaq: March 13: April 13: Dow 23185.62 23538.21 S&P 2711.02 2771.78 Nas 7874.88 8144.32 I get the allure of gambling to try and beat the market. Especially when you see a huge dip like we did a few weeks ago. But, you guys that trade individual stock daily are either way smarter, or way dumber than me. I'm still trying to figure out which. It's much harder to track the money we have invested in real estate, but it's safe to say that has lost quite a bit of value. But those weren't short term investments. I expect that to level off and eventually be profitable too. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites