Is it time to get out of the market?

[Leeson 54]

4 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

Well, at some point, someone is going to have to help me understand how we "crippled" our economy with the pandemic response, but yet the market is going along just fine.

There is not reasoning. The only understanding is that they don't have a total effect on each other at this point and time. 

Also QE. If this same thing happened at any other time in American history, the stock market would be down. They've been pumping the market for months. The next POTUS will have to fix it.

[bandrus1 413]

8 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

Well, at some point, someone is going to have to help me understand how we "crippled" our economy with the pandemic response, but yet the market is going along just fine.

A. the amount of money injected into the economy is unprecedented

B. That huge dip required big retirement funds to re-balance their bonds into equities 

C. companies are using this as an excuse to get lean. We will see profits go through the roof next year

[Baker Boy 1,699]

17 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

Well, at some point, someone is going to have to help me understand how we "crippled" our economy with the pandemic response, but yet the market is going along just fine.

Part of the reason is that the Government has pumped Trillions of dollars into the economy and plans to add more.

COVID was overblown and the market fell a lot farther than it should have.

There is money to be made on this temporary dip of the market.

Trump created a powerful economy.

If you didn’t join in, shame on you.

[Hardcore troubadour 15,423]

Some people always win. 

[lod001 1,344]

39 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

Well, at some point, someone is going to have to help me understand how we "crippled" our economy with the pandemic response, but yet the market is going along just fine.

Once everyone gives up and moves all in, then it will sell off. There are still a lot of people sitting on the sidelines waiting for that. the stock market thieves wont take it down until they load in. They also want that 2nd stimulus check $.

[nobody 2,671]

1 hour ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

Well, at some point, someone is going to have to help me understand how we "crippled" our economy with the pandemic response, but yet the market is going along just fine. 

We handed out 4 trillion dollars to people and businesses.

[nobody 2,671]

1 hour ago, lod001 said:

Once everyone gives up and moves all in, then it will sell off. There are still a lot of people sitting on the sidelines waiting for that. the stock market thieves wont take it down until they load in. They also want that 2nd stimulus check $.

If Trump loses, the market is going to fizzle.  be-lee dat.

[Hardcore troubadour 15,423]

9 minutes ago, nobody said:

If Trump loses, the market is going to fizzle.  be-lee dat.

Wall Street is Biden’s second  biggest contributor. And way more than  they have given Trump. 

[lod001 1,344]

2 minutes ago, nobody said:

If Trump loses, the market is going to fizzle.  be-lee dat.

Yes but only temporarily in order to get people to sell low and buy back higher when they reverse it. It will fool a lot of R voters at the same time the D voters will pile into the market. Just as D's watched from afar as the Markets rallied bigly when Trump was voted in.

[Old School 360]

I'm still about 62% in stocks. I'm trying to cut that to 60%. I rode out the downturn and just started pulling a little cash/ bonds  during this recent uptick. 

One thing I need to do is rebalance and I find I am light in International funds (which are rocking now for various reasons, earlier shutdown/ earlier reopening & recovery- also talk of stimulus packages)

Any recommendations for International mutual funds for the recovery? Not really playing individual stocks, just researching solid international funds for not only the short term recovery, but long term parts of my portfolio.

My $ is at Fidelity so I picked up some Fidelity funds- FIVFX Fidelity international Capital Appreciation/ FWWFX Fidelity Worldwide/ FIGFX Fidelity International Growth but looking for accouple non Fidelity funds to add.

I also have an oddity I stumbled upon a few years ago- it's been pretty good to me. GLFOX Lizard Global Listed Infrastructure Limited

 

[Cdub100 3,907]

2 hours ago, Baker Boy said:

Part of the reason is that the Government has pumped Trillions of dollars into the economy and plans to add more.

COVID was overblown and the market fell a lot farther than it should have.

There is money to be made on this temporary dip of the market.

Trump created a powerful economy.

If you didn’t join in, shame on you.

All good reasons. People forget the market does not equal the economy. 

Also these riots help Trump. The market loves Trump

The main reason IMO is when people talk about the market often they are talking about S&P, DOW, etc... not realizing those funds are propped up by huge market players like amazon, MFST, Apple, Disney the market can swing green or red depending on how those stocks do. Most of these companies have not only rebounded but soared. DIS is so well diversified even having the parks shut down which is 33% of their revenue they still have support. I bought a lot of DIS any time I could get it under $100

There are some extremely down stocks too. Look at service stocks CCL, RCL, HLT. They have taken HUGE hits and haven't recovered if at all. They aren't huge market movers so the market still looks good... at a glance.

One of my favorite dividend stocks Coke KO is still trading under $50 If I'm you guys I buy KO if you're looking for stable growth company that hasn't recovered full and can still be had at a discount..

[bandrus1 413]

Down 150 in pre market... Up 80 right now.. better get off the tracks. No stopping it

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

17 minutes ago, bandrus1 said:

Down 150 in pre market... Up 80 right now.. better get off the tracks. No stopping it

It will end up down today. Late week selloffs.

[lod001 1,344]

Old washed up Buffett really nailed the bottom in the airlines.

[bandrus1 413]

3 hours ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

It will end up down today. Late week selloffs.

I jinxed it

[tubby_mcgee 701]

Its always good to try to time the market.  

 

[tubby_mcgee 701]

30 minutes ago, lod001 said:

Old washed up Buffett really nailed the bottom in the airlines.

 

Grain of salt.  He very well might have...but this is a conversation I often have about Buffet with a stock guru friend of mine: 

July 3: Buffet buys 200,000 shares of XYZ stock at $300 per share. 
July 4 a.m: News headlines announce "Buffet buys $60,000,000 million of XYZ stock"
July 4 p.m: People swarm to XYZ stock, drive stock price to $350 per share over the next month two (I mean, if Buffet is buying, it must be good!)
Sept 5: Buffet's a genius!  He just knew XYZ stock would be a winner!   He does it every time!

 

 

 

[lod001 1,344]

15 minutes ago, tubby_mcgee said:

Its always good to try to time the market.  

 

Right now is one of the few times you can do it and make big $. I'm beating the S&P & NAZ this year. I plan on widening that gap later this year on the next selloff.

[Cdub100 3,907]

41 minutes ago, tubby_mcgee said:

 

Grain of salt.  He very well might have...but this is a conversation I often have about Buffet with a stock guru friend of mine: 

July 3: Buffet buys 200,000 shares of XYZ stock at $300 per share. 
July 4 a.m: News headlines announce "Buffet buys $60,000,000 million of XYZ stock"
July 4 p.m: People swarm to XYZ stock, drive stock price to $350 per share over the next month two (I mean, if Buffet is buying, it must be good!)
Sept 5: Buffet's a genius!  He just knew XYZ stock would be a winner!   He does it every time!

 

 

 

Add to the fact buffet buys the stock much lower than the market price. He also gets special dividends. Even companies that don't pay dividends will often pay one to Buffett for a bail out.

[lod001 1,344]

1 hour ago, Cdub100 said:

Add to the fact buffet buys the stock much lower than the market price. He also gets special dividends. Even companies that don't pay dividends will often pay one to Buffett for a bail out.

Regardless, he just got buttfucked bigly by the airline stocks.

[Cdub100 3,907]

2 minutes ago, lod001 said:

Regardless, he just got buttfucked bigly by the airline stocks.

I agree I bought pretty heavy into LUV in April. I think someone here told me how smart Buffett was and I was dumb for buying airline stock. That we can trade just like Buffett. We can't and I don't try too. Regardless he and I have different goals for our portfolio.

 

Note: I am no way saying I'm even close to the same genius Buffett is. 

[Leeson 54]

I've bought Berkshire B at 4 different price points over the last couple of months. As of today, they are up a combined 5%. Certainly much less risk/reward than owning DAL, LUV or any of the other stocks that Buffett owns/owned. 

For the record, I don't think people are dumb for buying airline stocks. What do I care what they do with their money? It is odd that nobody ever talks about their poor stock choices. It's like bragging about gambling wins, while ignoring the fact that they actually live in their car because their wife divorced them. 

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

15 minutes ago, Leeson said:

I've bought Berkshire B at 4 different price points over the last couple of months. As of today, they are up a combined 5%. Certainly much less risk/reward than owning DAL, LUV or any of the other stocks that Buffett owns/owned. 

For the record, I don't think people are dumb for buying airline stocks. What do I care what they do with their money? It is odd that nobody ever talks about their poor stock choices. It's like bragging about gambling wins, while ignoring the fact that they actually live in their car because their wife divorced them. 

Look back. I have posted plenty of my fockups.   

[Cdub100 3,907]

23 minutes ago, Leeson said:

I've bought Berkshire B at 4 different price points over the last couple of months. As of today, they are up a combined 5%. Certainly much less risk/reward than owning DAL, LUV or any of the other stocks that Buffett owns/owned. 

For the record, I don't think people are dumb for buying airline stocks. What do I care what they do with their money? It is odd that nobody ever talks about their poor stock choices. It's like bragging about gambling wins, while ignoring the fact that they actually live in their car because their wife divorced them. 

People want to be seen as winners at all times. For the record and I know you don't like me right now, but in this thread, I try to post my winners and losers. I also take a stand on which direction I'm going. None of this the market might go up or down crap. 

For example, I bought CCL at $8ish and sold at $14ish. That was a mistake I bought back in a couple of weeks later for 14ish, but triggered a wash rule. 

Bought TMO $309 march 17 sold for $259 March 23. Should have held on to that one. Trading at 340ish today.

[Leeson 54]

YTD, I've sold zero losses. I did sell a couple of index funds at the end of last year for some tax harvesting. As it stands right now, I have exactly 1 holding that is in the red. VLGSX (long term bond) But, it only accounts for less than 3% of my total investments. 

I still think this pandemic is going to cause another market correction. The only difference between this market and past downturns is the amount of money that fed is putting into it. That can't be an endless bubble. We haven't seen the full effects of unemployment on home and auto loans. We haven't seen the true effects of businesses that have had to shut down. This is all being propped up like a house of cards. The protests didn't help either. Time will tell if it leads to 2nd wave. But the businesses that have been destroyed or looted will have a negative effect of some sort. If nothing else, those will ad to the unemployment numbers. 

I've posted all of this before. My investment strategy is very conservative. It's a stand. Just like yours. It's just that you don't like my opinion because it rains on your parade. 

And to be clear, the reason I dislike you is not because you make money in the stock market. It's because the things you post here are pretty disgusting. If you truly believe what you post, you are a horrible human being. Rooting for you to fail, is just a bonus.

[lod001 1,344]

27 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

People want to be seen as winners at all times. For the record and I know you don't like me right now, but in this thread, I try to post my winners and losers. I also take a stand on which direction I'm going. None of this the market might go up or down crap. 

For example, I bought CCL at $8ish and sold at $14ish. That was a mistake I bought back in a couple of weeks later for 14ish, but triggered a wash rule. 

Bought TMO $309 march 17 sold for $259 March 23. Should have held on to that one. Trading at 340ish today.

Correct me if I am wrong but the wash rule only is in effect if you hold the 2nd purchase thru the end of the year. It's hard to find that info clearly but I did read that somewhere. If you have no position in the stock at the end of the year, you simply total up the wins & losses and if it's a loser, you write it off on your taxes that year.

I also know that back in the 90s I bought and sold at will win, lose buy back, win sell, declared it all and the losses were valid according to the IRS.

[Cdub100 3,907]

2 minutes ago, lod001 said:

Correct me if I am wrong but the wash rule only is in effect if you hold the 2nd purchase thru the end of the year. It's hard to find that info clearly but I did read that somewhere. If you have no position in the stock at the end of the year, you simply total up the wins & losses and if it's a loser, you write it off on your taxes that year.

I also know that back in the 90s I bought and sold at will win, lose buy back, win sell, declared it all and the losses were valid according to the IRS.

I don't plan on selling CCL any time soon. It's one of my best winners right now and will be a long time hold. I'll just have to pay the taxes this year.

[lod001 1,344]

AAL is a double from where Buffet sold. Dude absolutely nailed the bottom. 

[Alias Detective 1,400]

Futures through the roof.  I’m perplexed.

[bandrus1 413]

1 minute ago, Alias Detective said:

Futures through the roof.  I’m perplexed.

NAS is down.. money flowing outta big tech into underperforming areas

[vuduchile 1,945]

We should close the week strong with those unemployment numbers.  

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

9 minutes ago, vuduchile said:

We should close the week strong with those unemployment numbers.  

That is why futures are through the roof. Added 2.5M jobs and unemployment fell. 

[vuduchile 1,945]

6 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

That is why futures are through the roof. Added 2.5M jobs and unemployment fell. 

Yep.  Seeing it all around us as well.  Things are re-opening and returning to some level of normalcy.  Tourism, airlines, commercial real estate, sports and entertainment related industries will take more time to recover, but were headed in the right direction.  

[Cdub100 3,907]

[Cdub100 3,907]

As of today, I'm up 28% in one of my dividend accounts and 15% in the other. My IRAs are up 11% & 9%.

My big winners are

RCL  + 67%

CCL +53%

LUV +49%

TXRH +37%

WELL +36%

 

Biggest "loser"

JNJ +6%

PEP +6.5%

[bandrus1 413]

44 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

I don't think I remember a $1000 Dow day

[Cdub100 3,907]

 

[Cdub100 3,907]

On 5/4/2020 at 10:08 AM, Cdub100 said:

Just bought $LUV 27.25

I don't like to travel on southwest but they have an almost cult following. I prefer DAL (delta), but they don't have a dividend.

[Cdub100 3,907]

On 5/13/2020 at 1:19 PM, Cdub100 said:

 

THE SHOW GOES ON!!!

[bandrus1 413]

6 minutes ago, Cdub100 said: