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oldtimer

Gambling Thread

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What do you Gamblers think of the lines this week?  There are a handful I really like.  Pittsburgh getting points against NE, The Lions and the Cardinals being a pick 'em, and Denver vs. Raiders are the 3 I'm watching.  I never place a bet until right before kickoff though.  You can sometimes tell who the large money is wagering on if the line changes within a couple hours of kickoff.  If too much of the public is on a particular game, I will avoid it, even if I like it.  I place my bets with mybookie.ag and I've learned a few things from wagering over the years.  When the public is all over a specific game, don't jump on board.  lol  The public is typically wrong.  I don't know the exact stat, but it's something absolutely astronomical, like when 90% of the public is betting on a certain team, the underdog covers the spread the vast majority of the time. 

As of today, I love that Pitt game.  Them getting +4 right now sort of blows me away. 

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I put money on the Cowboys -7.5 and the Eagles -10.5

In regards to the public, when I see close to 90% of the public on one side I will bet the opposite or avoid altogether.

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I see NE giving 5.5 pretty much every where I look.  So if you take it at 4 you are doing yourself a disservice.

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1 minute ago, listen2me 23 said:

I see NE giving 5.5 pretty much every where I look.  So if you take it at 4 you are doing yourself a disservice.

I think that game opened as a 7 point spread too.

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3 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

I see NE giving 5.5 pretty much every where I look.  So if you take it at 4 you are doing yourself a disservice.

I haven't checked since yesterday evening.  It was at 4 then.  When you Google a spread, it's usually different once you go to the actual gambling website.  I rarely find the spreads posted online to be the same as the sites themselves. 

Detroit was even last time I checked my site as well.  I would never give AZ points, but I do expect Detroit to be more competitive than some expect.  Their front four is pretty doggone impressive.  I think they could give that AZ offensive line some issues.  The only issue I have is Matt Patricia doesn't seem to be very creative on defense.  In watching the games last season, I rarely saw anything that would surprise an offense.  People weren't moved around.  I didn't see many (any?) odd blitz packages.....  I think he may be highly overrated, but that front four should be able to dominate AZ's line. 

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9 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

I see NE giving 5.5 pretty much every where I look.  So if you take it at 4 you are doing yourself a disservice.

Wow.  You are absolutely correct.  I just now logged in and looked.  +5.5 and an O/U of 49.5.  I usually shy away from the O/U, but love that 5.5 points.  :)

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2 minutes ago, purplengold47 said:

Colts BIG

Titans

Detroit 

Pitt

Why do you think the Colts win BIG?  I'm just curious as some people know things others don't.  I wouldn't bet on that game, but I'd love to hear your thoughts on them winning big.  The Chargers have a pretty good pass rush and Jacoby had double the sack percentage rate of any other Colt in their history the last time he played.  I know the line is much improved, but is his ability to stand in the pocket any better?  It is difficult for me to think there are any teams who could win BIG over the Chargers, but every team has a bad game.  Maybe Jacoby puts on a show?

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Hammer the overs that are low. The new PI challenge rule will give teams free red zone chances worth I’d say around 3-7 points per game at least. It will take Vegas a couple weeks to adjust.

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5 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

Hammer the overs that are low. The new PI challenge rule will give teams free red zone chances worth I’d say around 3-7 points per game at least. It will take Vegas a couple weeks to adjust.

That's a good observation.  I never thought of that.

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With all the hype around the Browns I like the Titans getting 5.5

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25 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

Hammer the overs that are low. The new PI challenge rule will give teams free red zone chances worth I’d say around 3-7 points per game at least. It will take Vegas a couple weeks to adjust.

I dont think so.  But I would hope not.

Vegas adjusts far quicker than the casual gambler.

I dont think they are changing every little contact foul.  It was put in place for the obvious ones.   Just as they always lean towards what is called on the field with catches, non catches, and fumbles.

Plus the offenses are usually behind the defenses early in the year.  

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1 hour ago, oldtimer said:

Why do you think the Colts win BIG?  I'm just curious as some people know things others don't.  I wouldn't bet on that game, but I'd love to hear your thoughts on them winning big.  The Chargers have a pretty good pass rush and Jacoby had double the sack percentage rate of any other Colt in their history the last time he played.  I know the line is much improved, but is his ability to stand in the pocket any better?  It is difficult for me to think there are any teams who could win BIG over the Chargers, but every team has a bad game.  Maybe Jacoby puts on a show?

Good question old timer, for me it's all about jacoby's familiarity with their system. This guy been with the colts for a while, started a few games and is very familiar with the system and personnel. You also mentioned about the much improved O line, i think that's going to be the difference in this game. He will have time to throw and put up pts on the board and with chargers giving us a td, I'll take that every time with a veteran qb. People are making a big deal of Luck retiring but a lot of people underestimate jacoby. I think the colts will be fine. 

 

Colts +7.5 (hook) BIGGG! 

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21 minutes ago, purplengold47 said:

Good question old timer, for me it's all about jacoby's familiarity with their system. This guy been with the colts for a while, started a few games and is very familiar with the system and personnel. You also mentioned about the much improved O line, i think that's going to be the difference in this game. He will have time to throw and put up pts on the board and with chargers giving us a td, I'll take that every time with a veteran qb. People are making a big deal of Luck retiring but a lot of people underestimate jacoby. I think the colts will be fine. 

 

Colts +7.5 (hook) BIGGG! 

As a Cowboys fan, I was hoping we would let Prescott walk and bring in Jacoby.  When Luck retired, I wasn't upset because he was on my best dynasty team, I was upset because he's no longer an option.  He played fairly well last time considering he was thrown to the fire, had the worst line in football at that time (the sack rate was 9.3% of his dropbacks if I recall correctly) and had no one outside of Hilton to toss the ball.  It will be much different this time around.  I still worry about rust and the Chargers pass rush with the game being the first one of the season, but your points are valid. 

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28 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

As a Cowboys fan, I was hoping we would let Prescott walk and bring in Jacoby.  When Luck retired, I wasn't upset because he was on my best dynasty team, I was upset because he's no longer an option.  He played fairly well last time considering he was thrown to the fire, had the worst line in football at that time (the sack rate was 9.3% of his dropbacks if I recall correctly) and had no one outside of Hilton to toss the ball.  It will be much different this time around.  I still worry about rust and the Chargers pass rush with the game being the first one of the season, but your points are valid. 

Oldtimer, just to reiterate, im not banking on the colts winning BIG against the chargers. What i meant was, my bet is bigger than normal and I think they cover the 7pts. I wont be surprised if Colts win this game close, that's why im sprinkling on colts moneyline a lil bit. 

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I haven't researched this, but it seems to me that the best time to bet overs are the first few weeks. The offense is always ahead of the defense until there is some tape.

I love Denver at - 1. Their defense is going to really shut down the Raiders offense. Besides that I don't put much money on game lines week 1 because they are usually all over the place. 

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am not sure ill be able to get in on this thread until later in the week but the lions are giving 2 1/2 now i think and i would still be riding that. 

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3 minutes ago, unclemercy said:

am not sure ill be able to get in on this thread until later in the week but the lions are giving 2 1/2 now i think and i would still be riding that. 

Went from -1 to -2.5 for the Lions a couple hours ago.  Looks like just over 80% of the public is on the Lions.

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14 minutes ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

Buff is prob the second most confidence I have

Yeah. I got that +3.5 about 2 months ago. Not sure what it is now. Maybe 3? I actually would like to watch this game. I like both these QBs. Especially Darnold. I hear he is looking good. Buff defense should be a big challenge though.

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7 minutes ago, sderk said:

Yeah. I got that +3.5 about 2 months ago. Not sure what it is now. Maybe 3? I actually would like to watch this game. I like both these QBs. Especially Darnold. I hear he is looking good. Buff defense should be a big challenge though.

I think Darnold is going to disappoint people. Buffalo defense is going to give him a real problem

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18 minutes ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

I think Darnold is going to disappoint people. Buffalo defense is going to give him a real problem

I drafted Buff as my defense this year and I bet on Buff for this game, but overall I think Darnold will be a really good QB in the league if the Jets don't get in the way. Which they already started to screw up in drafting a 3rd round pick this year that they already cut. 

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12 hours ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

I haven't researched this, but it seems to me that the best time to bet overs are the first few weeks. The offense is always ahead of the defense until there is some tape.

I love Denver at - 1. Their defense is going to really shut down the Raiders offense. Besides that I don't put much money on game lines week 1 because they are usually all over the place. 

It has always been said defenses are ahead early on.  Offense requires timing and more chemistry.  QBs hardly play in the preseason and rrally dont get touched until  week 1.  

That said, in todays flag football era it is hard to feel good about any under.

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Some of the Over/Unders are pretty high for a Week 1.  I tend to avoid them altogether the first few weeks of a season.  The main reason is you have teams with new coaches and coordinators.  The team didn't get much practice as a unit in the preseason, so I usually wait until they have had some time together.  I think Green Bay could be great on offense, however, I won't touch their games until I see how the new system is working.  I saw where people are predicting the Cardinals to have a high scoring offense.  Maybe, but I wouldn't bet on it.  They have no offensive line at all and play some ferocious defensive lines.  That matters.  I think in the first 4 weeks of the season a person can usually make out ok on the point spreads as even Vegas is still using stats from last season.  They will adjust accordingly, but always seem to be the most off on their lines the first few games of each season. 

The Jets made their mistake in hiring Gase.  I loved Darnold as a rookie and think he has the potential to be a great QB.  Gase wasn't the right guy to be his mentor and teacher.  In fact, outside of working with the great QB's (who were great before they met Gase), what has he done to deserve this title of a QB whisperer?  Nothing.  Three years ago, I really liked him.  Take away an already great QB and he's just not a good Head Coach. 

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"fading the public" sounds good in principle if you can find accurate information for which side the public is actually backing.  most free sites i don't trust their information and really what matters is the handle size not the number of tickets written.  GL finding the actual dollar amounts wagered on a side without paying for that information (professional gamblers pay hundreds a month to sites like vegasinsider for this info). 

honestly the best method if you want to "fade the public" is to go down to your local sportsbar 30 minutes before kickoff and ask various barstool pundits what they think about a side. 

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full disclosure i'm not a winning player when it comes to football.  probably 95% of us aren't.  here's what i've learned though from years of losing....

1. dont back bad teams...the books never set lines high enough IMO.  i'm talking the dregs of the league here.  you want to back teams that can actually realistically win the game.

2. conversely dont lay more than a TD.  the avg NFL team just wants to win, they aren't looking for style points to impress pollsters or trick computers.

2. fade recency bias as much as possible.  the books set the lines based on perception as much as anything in hopes of balancing their tickets.

3. pay attention to injuries...and not just fantasy players we follow...defenders and o-lineman matter greatly too.

Here are my losers so far (obtained from various online books like 5D, Bovada, Heritage):

JAGS +3.5 (legit defense that slowed mahomes last yr with a healthy and upgraded offense under foles/difilippo, this will be a game)

TITANS +6 (hype fade on the browns, titans defense is legit and browns o-line has issues.  also beckham isn't 100%)

COLTS +6.5 (brissett is being undersold, chargers banged up on defense and not much of a homefield)

LIONS -2.5 (lions D-line is a mismatch for cards o-line, rookie headcoach and QB in their first game i'll pay to see how they do, cards are missing some corners)

 

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For game:

Atl +4

SF +1.5

By spread:

KC -3.5

Parlay of Atl, SF, and GB for game because KC was a later decision. Also a parlay of the opposite of the above because I have a knack for picking losers.  

 

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On 9/4/2019 at 2:44 PM, nzoner said:

With all the hype around the Browns I like the Titans getting 5.5

:thumbsup:

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47 minutes ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

I ended up putting money on the Pats - 6, Buff +3, Ravens - 7, Broncos - 1

Did you do a parlay?

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13 minutes ago, Beyond Chaos said:

Did you do a parlay?

I did. I did two parlays. One with NE, Buff and Denver. I did another with NE, Buff, Balt, Den. 

I bet Buff and Denver individually too

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2 minutes ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

I did. I did two parlays. One with NE, Buff and Denver. I did another with NE, Buff, Balt, Den. 

I bet Buff and Denver individually too

Nice.  If you're really worried you could a hedge a play with Oakland.  It's always nice to lock in some gains, but can understand the live or die by the sword mentality. 

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2 minutes ago, Beyond Chaos said:

Nice.  If you're really worried you could a hedge a play with Oakland.  It's always nice to lock in some gains, but can understand the live or die by the sword mentality. 

Yeah that's true. I didn't lay a ton down this week. My parlays were 30 and 20 I think. My individual games were 50 and 130. That I put down. 

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2 minutes ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

Yeah that's true. I didn't lay a ton down this week. My parlays were 30 and 20 I think. My individual games were 50 and 130. That I put down. 

That's still a good amount to me. How many times your wager is your 4 team parlay payout, just curious?

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1 hour ago, Beyond Chaos said:

That's still a good amount to me. How many times your wager is your 4 team parlay payout, just curious?

I'm pretty sure the 20 pays 240. The 30 on 3 teams pays 170

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