David Johnson

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

He is having a really good year, but I am curious as to what you see his value as? The Huddle said that he is a running back 2 with running back 1 upside. Really? He is the 5th ranked running back in ppr this year. I know people have been complaining about him a lot lately, so maybe people are just clueless on how good he has been? 

[mgirgent 2]

Hes likely to finish as a top 5 rb.

[zftcg 84]

He’s been fine so far, but has a ton of upside for the second half of the season as Murray progresses and the AZ offense is due for some positive TD regression

[weepaws 2,460]

Rb 2 with rb1 upside. 

[AxeElf 787]

54 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Rb 2 with rb1 upside. 

...in a 4 team league.

[NAn 39]

Just don't get the hate on DJ.  Actually I do, as sounds like  many expected to get top5 numbers from him from day 1.  I personally had (and got him auction price wise)  for about a 10th-12th pick so my expectations were tempered.

But even for those who picked him as top5, thru week 6 in non-ppr (imagine he'd be ranked even higher in ppr):

Ranked 7th, FF scoring, literally 2pts from 5th

9th total yds

2nd in rec ycs

5th in recs

And the offense is just starting to click. He's running more routes than ever as a WR. As teams worry/game plan more for Murray's running threat we'll open things up for him more.

Think he's on his way to a solid year.

Currently mid RB1 with high RB1 upside.

[AxeElf 787]

4 minutes ago, NAn said:

But even for those who picked him as top5, thru week 6 in non-ppr (imagine he'd be ranked even higher in ppr):

Ranked 7th, FF scoring, literally 2pts from 5th

Yes, he is RB5 in PPR scoring.

[polecatt 403]

It depends on the scoring system.

In PPR he's a low end RB1/ high end RB2, in standard he's more of a high RB2

He's a very talented player with very high potential but he's not in the best situation

[AxeElf 787]

23 minutes ago, polecatt said:

In PPR he's a low end RB1/ high end RB2

...in a 4 team league.

24 minutes ago, polecatt said:

in standard he's more of a high RB2

...in a 6 team league.

[Ray_T 591]

midrange RB1.

he has the ability to be the best RB in the nfl (statistically) but the team does not have the talent to get him there. (not yet anyways)

Defense is too leaky and hes working with too many negative game scripts.

honestly I think his performance so far this year has been heroic given what the team has done as a whole so far this year.

[weepaws 2,460]

2 hours ago, AxeElf said:

...in a 4 team league.

F/A. 

[weepaws 2,460]

2 hours ago, NAn said:

Just don't get the hate on DJ.  Actually I do, as sounds like  many expected to get top5 numbers from him from day 1.  I personally had (and got him auction price wise)  for about a 10th-12th pick so my expectations were tempered.

But even for those who picked him as top5, thru week 6 in non-ppr (imagine he'd be ranked even higher in ppr):

Ranked 7th, FF scoring, literally 2pts from 5th

9th total yds

2nd in rec ycs

5th in recs

And the offense is just starting to click. He's running more routes than ever as a WR. As teams worry/game plan more for Murray's running threat we'll open things up for him more.

Think he's on his way to a solid year.

Currently mid RB1 with high RB1 upside.

No hate, no reason to hate a ff player, it’s not real, it’s fantasy. 

But hes diffently not worthy of a top five draft pick. 

[Ray_T 591]

34 minutes ago, weepaws said:

No hate, no reason to hate a ff player, it’s not real, it’s fantasy. 

But hes diffently not worthy of a top five draft pick. 

You and I have been saying this all year long.

although you were more bearish than I was.

I said he should be going late first or early second round which would make him likely a middling RB1.  I think you had him ranked as a high end RB2.   (which likely made him a third round pick in most formats)

I do feel badly for anyone who did draft him top 5 overall.    That likely puts him in the top 3 RB's and I agree. hes not there.  Not with this crappy team.

 

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

This thread proves my point. He is a top 5 running back in ppr, yet people think that means he is a running back 2. So only the top 4 are rb1s? That's some new metric I have never seen before. I would recommend anyone who doesn't have David Johnson to go make an offer for him like he is a rb2, because obviously the majority of owners don't understand value

[oldtimer 84]

I have changed my view on him.  In the preseason, I thought he was more of a very low RB1 and would have placed 7 or 8 RB's ahead of him.  The only bad game he's had this season was against the Ravens though.  All my leagues are PPR.  I don't care if he gets his points via rushing or receiving.  Points are points.  He's scoring more of them than I thought he would at this point.  In most drafts I was in, he was taken between the 1.04 (When Zeke looked like a holdout) and the 1.07.  I never saw him go later than the 7th pick of the first round.  So, he's living up to his draft status.  Let's be honest, it's not always a player taken in the 1st round does that.  Someone else may know the true statistic, but I read on ESPN a year or so ago that on average over the last decade, 7 of the top 12 picks will not finish the season ranked in the top 12 overall.  Obviously that excluded QB points.  The first round, for all the hype it gets, almost never lives up to the excitement of making the pick.  Nice pick for those that selected Johnson though.

[zftcg 84]

I said in the other DJ thread (how many are there at this point?) that feelings around him seem to be determined almost entirely by expectations. I think a lot of people drafted him last year expecting a return to 2016 form and can't forgive him for "only" being a low-end RB1. Others wasted the overall No. 1 pick on him the year before and saw him get injured in Week 1. I've never had him on a team before, and my expectations were lower, so I'm happier.

The other thing is that I think there's an expectation in fantasy that a true "stud" RB is a Saquon/Zeke type for whom a good week is 20/125/2 on the ground. If he throws in a 5/50 through the air, great, but he earns his living as a bellcow. Johnson has eclipsed 100 YFS in four of six games (and also scored in 4/6), but he's had only two games where he rushed for more than 40. Last week was the perfect example: He scored twice and was a beast in the passing game, but he only ran for 12/34, so it doesn't feel like a dominating performance.

I'm not saying this is totally rational -- as @oldtimer says, points are points -- but I think this is the way our fantasy brains are wired.

[NAn 39]

7 hours ago, weepaws said:

No hate, no reason to hate a ff player, it’s not real, it’s fantasy. 

But hes diffently not worthy of a top five draft pick. 

It's just an expression wee, it's all fantasy.

Just talking here, b/c it is all fantasy, but then what about the other top RBs...

2 hours ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

So only the top 4 are rb1s? 

Not even them as outside of CMC ...Kamara 13th, Elliot 8th, Saquon 35th

So are they not worthy of top5 pick?

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

24 minutes ago, NAn said:

It's just an expression wee, it's all fantasy.

Just talking here, b/c it is all fantasy, but then what about the other top RBs...

Not even them as outside of CMC ...Kamara 13th, Elliot 8th, Saquon 35th

So are they not worthy of top5 pick?

I guess not. Weepaws logic. Logic to a point to where you think weepaws may be a she

[weepaws 2,460]

2 hours ago, NAn said:

It's just an expression wee, it's all fantasy.

Just talking here, b/c it is all fantasy, but then what about the other top RBs...

Not even them as outside of CMC ...Kamara 13th, Elliot 8th, Saquon 35th

So are they not worthy of top5 pick?

What about the other top Rbs? 

[cavern 70]

3 hours ago, zftcg said:

I said in the other DJ thread (how many are there at this point?) that feelings around him seem to be determined almost entirely by expectations. I think a lot of people drafted him last year expecting a return to 2016 form and can't forgive him for "only" being a low-end RB1. Others wasted the overall No. 1 pick on him the year before and saw him get injured in Week 1. I've never had him on a team before, and my expectations were lower, so I'm happier.

The other thing is that I think there's an expectation in fantasy that a true "stud" RB is a Saquon/Zeke type for whom a good week is 20/125/2 on the ground. If he throws in a 5/50 through the air, great, but he earns his living as a bellcow. Johnson has eclipsed 100 YFS in four of six games (and also scored in 4/6), but he's had only two games where he rushed for more than 40. Last week was the perfect example: He scored twice and was a beast in the passing game, but he only ran for 12/34, so it doesn't feel like a dominating performance.

I'm not saying this is totally rational -- as @oldtimer says, points are points -- but I think this is the way our fantasy brains are wired.

Yep - agreed.  it seems a very vocal minority used a top 5-6 pick on him and had their panties in a wad over it.  even those people should be relaxing a little bit right now.  despite his success this season, i still don't see how people got expectations up THAT much given his team situation.

things look pretty good right now but I'm STILL concerned...mainly that he was so nicked up so early in the season

 

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

18 minutes ago, cavern said:

Yep - agreed.  it seems a very vocal minority used a top 5-6 pick on him and had their panties in a wad over it.  even those people should be relaxing a little bit right now.  despite his success this season, i still don't see how people got expectations up THAT much given his team situation.

things look pretty good right now but I'm STILL concerned...mainly that he was so nicked up so early in the season

 

DJ is going to hit a rough schedule patch that may knock him back down toward low end rb1, but overall I have been extremely happy with his consistency. 

[cavern 70]

11 minutes ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

DJ is going to hit a rough schedule patch that may knock him back down toward low end rb1, but overall I have been extremely happy with his consistency. 

he MAY drop.  i think it's mainly health related though.  it seems the murray led offense is starting to mature so, if DJ is healthy, i think he can have good games even against tough defenses.  but you indicate only a minor drop so mostly agree with your statement

[NAn 39]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

What about the other top Rbs? 

 

3 hours ago, NAn said:

 

...outside of CMC ...Kamara 13th, Elliot 8th, Saquon 35th

So are they not worthy of top5 pick?

3 of the top 4 preseason RBs are not performing as top4 RBs...so are they not worthy of top5 picks?

[Pinesprings 7]

ankle issue popped up today or whenever. dnp wednesday

[polecatt 403]

22 hours ago, AxeElf said:

...in a 4 team league.

...in a 6 team league.

Well please tell me how he is in my league since you're the expert on David Johnson, lol

[polecatt 403]

4 hours ago, Pinesprings said:

ankle issue popped up today or whenever. dnp wednesday

Shocker!

[weepaws 2,460]

10 hours ago, NAn said:

 

3 of the top 4 preseason RBs are not performing as top4 RBs...so are they not worthy of top5 picks?

Depends on ones rankings right. 

I had the Chubb in my top five rb rankings. 

But your missing the point, way back in June or even July D J lovers where screaming how he is worthy of a top five over all draft pick in ff football. 

I say no, how about you?  

 

[AxeElf 787]

2 hours ago, polecatt said:

Well please tell me how he is in my league since you're the expert on David Johnson, lol

How he is in your league?

I don't understand the question.

He is in your league because he's an NFL player?

He's the RB5 in your league if it's PPR and he's the RB7 in your league if it's standard scoring?

[Ray_T 591]

Let us clarify.   In PPR, hes worth a lot more than in standard leagues due to his activity  in the passing game.

In a standard league with standard scoring, he's mid range RB1 (likely lower end of the mid point)

in PPR, hes definitely worth more.  Likely  higher end of the mid range.   that would likely make him a top 5 or top 6 player at hiis position.

That being said, it still does not translate into a top 5 pick overall.

It doesnt.

and anyone who bought into the hype is likely paying the price.

while I do agree, if you are picking at 5 or 6 at the start of this year and you really want him, you probably have to take him there because his chances of falling to you in round 2 isnt great.

but I'm not a big fan of reaching on a first or second round pick.   You grab the  best player available, and if you want him, then you make a deal to get him rather than pick him higher than you should.

Whether that means trading down in the draft to get other assets or trading for him when the draft is done, that's the best way to go. 

This policy does not just apply to him.  it should apply to any player you are considering drafting earlier than you should. 

I dont mind overpaying for a player in round 4,5,6 or later.   the consequences if they dont perform to the draft position are not so dire.   but in round 1 and 2 its a draft losing move if the player does not come close to giving value for the position you drafted him at.

That's not to say you cant recover from it.   but you effectively need to make  up for that lost production later in the draft  or on the waiver wire.   That's easier said than done.   Sometimes you can do it, but sometimes you cannot.

and if your first round draft pick performs like a 3rd rounder (or worse) its a deep hole to fill a large deficiency in fantasy points.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Injuries are piling up even if small. I don’t have DJ but I’m happy to have Edmonds.

[weepaws 2,460]

Last season in ppr D J ranked 11th in avg per game, and ninth in total points. 

Hes ppr ranking as truly benefited with, Barkley and Gurley and Mixon, and Kamara all having injury problems. 

So I wonder where he would be in total points if those others where not having those injury problems. 

I would guess right around where he was last season. 

 

[AxeElf 787]

10 hours ago, Ray_T said:

it still does not translate into a top 5 pick overall.

It doesnt.

That's ridiculous.  Any time a top 5 pick returns top 5 value, you're overjoyed.  Who should have been picked ahead of Johnson?  Ekeler?  Chubb?  I doubt that either of them finish the season ahead of Johnson, since they both have serious increases in competition returning to their own backfields.  Maybe Cook, but you know, this is Week 7, when Cook traditionally goes out for the season.

You're a lot happier with David Johnson than you are with Zeke, Saquon or Kamara right now, that's for sure.

[cavern 70]

9 hours ago, weepaws said:

Last season in ppr D J ranked 11th in avg per game, and ninth in total points. 

Hes ppr ranking as truly benefited with, Barkley and Gurley and Mixon, and Kamara all having injury problems. 

So I wonder where he would be in total points if those others where not having those injury problems. 

I would guess right around where he was last season. 

 

still trying to justify saying he's not worth the high pick, huh?

looking from a different point of view your 2nd line could just as easily say something more along the lines of "While many top rb picks are missing time and/or production, DJ is turning in top flight performances in instances where was hurt, and largely unable to practice, but still played on Sunday."

the fact that you are pointing to injuries as an excuse why he is out performing others is laughable given that he is playing hurt himself.  

[weepaws 2,460]

32 minutes ago, cavern said:

still trying to justify saying he's not worth the high pick, huh?

looking from a different point of view your 2nd line could just as easily say something more along the lines of "While many top rb picks are missing time and/or production, DJ is turning in top flight performances in instances where was hurt, and largely unable to practice, but still played on Sunday."

the fact that you are pointing to injuries as an excuse why he is out performing others is laughable given that he is playing hurt himself.  

Not saying he’s not worthy of a high pick, no no no no. 

Said he’s not worth a top five over all pick. 

Ok let’s see how you feel about it, his DJ worthy of a top five over all pick?  

[tanatastic 2,061]

1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

You're a lot happier with David Johnson than you are with Zeke, Saquon or Kamara right now, that's for sure.

Zeke has been good every week. Just beat me last week with his big game and been at least decent every game. But yea DJ has been better than good, not sure why anyone would be doubting his returns so far.

[NAn 39]

15 hours ago, weepaws said:

Depends on ones rankings right. 

I had the Chubb in my top five rb rankings. 

But your missing the point, way back in June or even July D J lovers where screaming how he is worthy of a top five over all draft pick in ff football. 

I say no, how about you?  

 

okay that's where I thought your thinking was...

I admit per preseason I did not consider him a top 5 pick.  Again auction wise I got him for about a 10-12, but honestly had his price approached top5 (so jsut a few dollars less than the top4 RBs) I likely would not have grabbed him as I did want to get value from him.  Looking even at last year where he finished 10th in my league (thereabouts), if he finished at that be fine, but felt he had great upside to be a top 5-7.  

But in hindsight, even for those who did draft him that high, he currently is performing near there and I could see him finishing top5 (Even Ekeler and Ingram ahead of him falling a bit already).

So, just not sure who should be complaining about him now.

[NAn 39]

13 hours ago, weepaws said:

 

So I wonder where he would be in total points if those others where not having those injury problems. 

 

 

Due respect but that's neither here or there. Bottom line is production.  Injuries happen, part of game.  Can wonder all you want, but that doesn't mean you can discount actual production.

[cavern 70]

4 hours ago, weepaws said:

Not saying he’s not worthy of a high pick, no no no no. 

Said he’s not worth a top five over all pick. 

Ok let’s see how you feel about it, his DJ worthy of a top five over all pick?  

I totally forgot that you changed your argument from "not worth his ADP" to "not worth a top 5 pick".

If we redrafted right now, he's in the conversation for top 5.  I didn't value him as such at draft time 

[cavern 70]

4 hours ago, weepaws said:

Not saying he’s not worthy of a high pick, no no no no. 

Said he’s not worth a top five over all pick. 

Ok let’s see how you feel about it, his DJ worthy of a top five over all pick?  

My apologies.  It appears this very site had him around #5. I had him near the turn and thought i was with the consensus.  Mea culpa

In hindsight i guess maybe they were on to something 

[NAn 39]

16 hours ago, Ray_T said:

and anyone who bought into the hype is likely paying the price.

This is what I don't get.  

You mean paying the right price?

B/c again he's currently 5th in ppr, 7th in standard.

So he's getting value at or near a top5 pick.

Meanwhile highly touted players like Hopkins, Kamara, Saquon, Hopkins, Davante are not meeting anywhere near their preseason value.