Have you been paying attention to the sports card market?

[Gepetto 1,443]

3 minutes ago, bandrus1 said:

So none of the vintage is for sale

No.  Personal Collection.  Not for sale.

[bandrus1 413]

Hrumph

[Gepetto 1,443]

You can find any card you want on ebay, if not today, in the future, set up saved searches and ebay will email you when the cards hit ebay.  I got all of my cards off of ebay over the years.

[bandrus1 413]

I know that

[vuduchile 1,947]

2 hours ago, Gepetto said:

I'm thinking of selling (most of these are autograph RCs (Contenders Premium and Optic Holo Autos)): 

2019: 4 Cam Reddish, 4 Kevin Porter Jr, 4 Eric Paschall, 1 Kendrick Nunn, 1 Tyler Herro, 2 Sekou

2018: 3 Devontae Graham, 4 Marvin Bagley

2017: 1 Lonzo Ball, 1 Kyle Kuzma, 1 Markelle Fultz

 

And Holding (several of these are Autograph RCs (Contenders Premium, and Optic) and Prizm color of the best players and Optic Holos):
2019: 9 Ja, 11 Zion, 6 Keldon Johnson, 5 Sekou, 5 RJ Barrett, 4 Rui, 5 Coby White, 4 De'Andre Hunter

2018: 8 Luka, 5 Trae, 4 Sexton, 3 Michael Porter Jr., 3 Shai, 3 Jaren Jackson, 3 DeAndre Ayton

2017: 5 Tatum, 5 Donovan Mitchell, 3 Bam, 3 John Collins, 3 DeAaron Fox, 1 Lauri Markennen

2016: 2 Ben Simmons, 3 Jaylen Brown, 4 Siakam, 3 Brandon Ingram,  3 Jamal Murray

2015: 2 Devin Booker, 2 Jokic, 2 Karl Anthony Towns, 2 Porzingis, 1 De'Angelo Russell, 

2014: 3 Embiid, 3 Zach Lavine, 2 Julius Randle, 1 Wiggins

2013: 5 Giannis, 3 Rudy Gobert, 3 CJ McCollum, 3 Victor Oladipo

2012: 3 Anthony Davis, 3 Kawhi Leonard, 4 Kyrie Irving, 2 Klay Thompson, 3 Jimmy Butler, 3 Kemba Walker, 2 Bradley Beal, 2 Draymond, 2 Middleton, 1 Vucevic, 2 Tobias Harris

 

Selling Football (Autograph RCs): 

1 Taysom Hill, 1 Jarrett Stidham, 1 of 2 Jared Goff, 1 of 2 Daniel Jones, 1 of 2 Drew Lock, 2 Gardner Minshew

I’m guessing you may already know this, but all those cards you’re looking to sell are way off their respective highs right now.  Are you just cutting your losses with those players or did you buy when they were dirt cheap?  

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,433]

https://theathletic.com/realtime/UB9KkZlVovux?source=app_brief_share

 

eBay on Thursday said its trading card category grew by 142% in 2020, with 4 million more cards sold year over year. That included an autographed 2000 Playoff Contenders Tom Brady that sold for... https://theathletic.com/realtime/UB9KkZlVovux

[Gepetto 1,443]

39 minutes ago, vuduchile said:

I’m guessing you may already know this, but all those cards you’re looking to sell are way off their respective highs right now.  Are you just cutting your losses with those players or did you buy when they were dirt cheap?  

This is the kind of feedback I was looking for.  I bought them all when they were first released so some I paid more for than they're worth now.  Just thinking I need to get some money before they go down more and never recover.  The cards I listed to sell both basketball and football should net me $4,000, but I'll need to review their prices to make sure that's still the case before I list.  Need to get some top loaders, sleeves, and team bags before I sell if I do so I can keep all the Ultra-Pro One-Touches those are in now.  Would you hold everything based on the potential of these players or are some just not going to pan out?  Wish I could accurately predict who's going to become a star and who's going to fail. 

[vuduchile 1,947]

3 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

This is the kind of feedback I was looking for.  I bought them all when they were first released so some I paid more for than they're worth now.  Just thinking I need to get some money before they go down more and never recover, but I'll need to review their prices to make sure that's still the case before I list.  Need to get some top loaders, sleeves, and team bags before I sell if I do so I can keep all the Ultra-Pro One-Touches those are in now.  Would you hold everything based on the potential of these players or are some just not going to pan out?  Wish I could accurately predict who's going to become a star and who's going to fail. 

My guess is not any better than yours on most of those young players.  So many things could happen to change their situation either way.  
 

Most of the NBA rookies from the last 3-4 years will not become superstars, perennial all stars or HOFers, so it’s tough to be long on any of them outside the current top 3-5.  And even they’re a big gamble.  To me, those guys are Booker, Luka, Trae, Zion and Ja.   
 

The QB’s are all worth holding until things shake out and you see where they are next pre season.   You’re not gonna get much for them right now.  They do have some room to grow if they can secure a starting gig and/or show us something.   
 

Good luck.  

[Rusty Syringes 478]

No.

[Utilit99 4,099]

1 hour ago, Rusty Syringes said:

No.

cat version of rusty:

 

[TimHauck 3,269]

19 hours ago, vuduchile said:

What cards are you predicting will decline?  I don't believe your Jackie Robinson card will decline within the next few years, and I don't think you do either. 

I know this wasn't directed at me and I don't know exactly what things are selling for but I'd say all of it, just the old ones like Robinson not as much.

[vuduchile 1,947]

6 hours ago, TimHauck said:

I know this wasn't directed at me and I don't know exactly what things are selling for but I'd say all of it, just the old ones like Robinson not as much.

Card prices decline daily or weekly depending on many factors.  There are many modern basketball cards that are down 25-35% from where they were 2 months ago.  Others are up that much or more.  Card values don't really move as a whole.  Certain sports, teams, sets or players can move in unison, but by and large, each player is his own market. 

Why do you believe all individual cards will decline in value? 

What is your outlook for the new trading card industry?  Will people stop buying boxes and packs at some point?  If so, why? 

[JustinCharge 2,397]

Mason and Ireland on 710 AM ESPN on Los Angeles were actually talking about this on Friday.  They were calling it a version of MLM.  Get in early, drum up interest so you can sell to a bagholder for a profit.

[bandrus1 413]

7 hours ago, TimHauck said:

I know this wasn't directed at me and I don't know exactly what things are selling for but I'd say all of it, just the old ones like Robinson not as much.

I mean I think it's inevitable my jackie robinson I bought a month ago for $1600 had a similar card sell for $7000 last night. No I don't think that is sustainable

[vuduchile 1,947]

2 hours ago, bandrus1 said:

I mean I think it's inevitable my jackie robinson I bought a month ago for $1600 had a similar card sell for $7000 last night. No I don't think that is sustainable

 

What’s not sustainable exactly?  The $7000 price tag for the card or 400% increases in value in 30 days?

If it’s the latter, I agree.  
 

If it’s the former, I’m not so sure.  I could see a pullback to $4-$6K at some point, but I doubt it will see $1600 again. 
 

Jackie’s a worldwide icon and civil rights pioneer.  He was also a great ball player.  

[vuduchile 1,947]

3 hours ago, JustinCharge said:

Mason and Ireland on 710 AM ESPN on Los Angeles were actually talking about this on Friday.  They were calling it a version of MLM.  Get in early, drum up interest so you can sell to a bagholder for a profit.

This sounds like they might have been talking about fractional ownership of sports cards, i.e Rally and Collectable.   
 

This is a new segment of the market that has recently exploded.  
 

I am not a fan for several reasons. 
 

When has fractional ownership of physical assets ever worked out?  How many people are trying to dump their stupid timeshares?

 

There are blatant conflict of interest issues spelled out in their SEC docs that immediately sent me packing.  The biggest issue is that 3/4 of the cards being put up are owned by the officers of Rally. 

[bandrus1 413]

32 minutes ago, vuduchile said:

 

What’s not sustainable exactly?  The $7000 price tag for the card or 400% increases in value in 30 days?

If it’s the latter, I agree.  
 

If it’s the former, I’m not so sure.  I could see a pullback to $4-$6K at some point, but I doubt it will see $1600 again. 
 

Jackie’s a worldwide icon and civil rights pioneer.  He was also a great ball player.  

But that wasn't discovered in the last 30 days

[TimHauck 3,269]

5 hours ago, vuduchile said:

Card prices decline daily or weekly depending on many factors.  There are many modern basketball cards that are down 25-35% from where they were 2 months ago.  Others are up that much or more.  Card values don't really move as a whole.  Certain sports, teams, sets or players can move in unison, but by and large, each player is his own market. 

Why do you believe all individual cards will decline in value? 

What is your outlook for the new trading card industry?  Will people stop buying boxes and packs at some point?  If so, why? 

I think comparing to 2 months ago is more evidence it’s a bubble.  Prices of pretty much anything shouldn’t be changing that much that fast.

I don’t know enough about it to have an “outlook,” but some of these prices just seem outrageous (for both individual cards and apparently people paying thousands for boxes that they don’t even know what’s inside).  $3.something million for 1 card???  

But could be any number of things:

There’s got to be a point where people finally say the prices just get too high

Unemployment actually hits the upper class/stock market tanks, yes some people may then go to cards as an “investment” but apparently a lot of the money in cards these days is from hedge fund dudes so there may not be as much money to buy them

People just get bored of it like other fads (beanie babies, Pokémon, pogs, tickle me Elmo, etc)

Does seem like the vintage cards should be more stable but even still it’s not like “they can only go up” - people used to say that about real estate until 2008 happened.  But yeah as discussed earlier the modern cards definitely have more bust potential - only like 10% or less of some of these guys whose cards are selling for big money will likely turn out to actually be HOF players.  I know you call it “gambling,” but more often than not, people lose money gambling.

 

[TimHauck 3,269]

But this thread did inspire me to google the old baseball card shop where I spent a lot of my youth.  Pretty sure the store closed like 10 years ago but apparently the owner kept an eBay store.  He just passed away in September but his daughter has taken over the eBay store.  No clue if there’s anything good on it but I will probably end up buying something from it.

[bandrus1 413]

27 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

But this thread did inspire me to google the old baseball card shop where I spent a lot of my youth.  Pretty sure the store closed like 10 years ago but apparently the owner kept an eBay store.  He just passed away in September but his daughter has taken over the eBay store.  No clue if there’s anything good on it but I will probably end up buying something from it.

Share link

[TimHauck 3,269]

23 minutes ago, bandrus1 said:

Share link

https://www.ebay.com/str/mondaescollectibles

 

[vuduchile 1,947]

2 hours ago, bandrus1 said:

But that wasn't discovered in the last 30 days

Right. But I don’t think this Card is a bubble that will pop and leave you holding  a $100 card.  
 

You don’t think that either.  If you did, you wouldn’t have bought it.  
 

I’d also bet on Mantle, Aaron, Mays, Williams, Koufax, Kareem, Wilt, MJ, Kobe, and others not being a bubble that will ever pop.  
 

When I think of a bubble, I think of massive price drops that leave people with next to nothing in value. 

[vuduchile 1,947]

2 hours ago, TimHauck said:

I think comparing to 2 months ago is more evidence it’s a bubble.  Prices of pretty much anything shouldn’t be changing that much that fast.

I don’t know enough about it to have an “outlook,” but some of these prices just seem outrageous (for both individual cards and apparently people paying thousands for boxes that they don’t even know what’s inside).  $3.something million for 1 card???  

But could be any number of things:

There’s got to be a point where people finally say the prices just get too high

Unemployment actually hits the upper class/stock market tanks, yes some people may then go to cards as an “investment” but apparently a lot of the money in cards these days is from hedge fund dudes so there may not be as much money to buy them

People just get bored of it like other fads (beanie babies, Pokémon, pogs, tickle me Elmo, etc)

Does seem like the vintage cards should be more stable but even still it’s not like “they can only go up” - people used to say that about real estate until 2008 happened.  But yeah as discussed earlier the modern cards definitely have more bust potential - only like 10% or less of some of these guys whose cards are selling for big money will likely turn out to actually be HOF players.  I know you call it “gambling,” but more often than not, people lose money gambling.

 

It is gambling. That’s precisely why there’s still room for growth and long term stability. 
 

People lose money in casinos, buying scratch offs and betting games by the zillions.  That’s not ever going to stop.  
 

More people discover that there’s money to be made gambling on cards every day.  
When they learn that it’s safer than betting spreads, money lines  or props, a light bulb goes on.    

[bandrus1 413]

58 minutes ago, vuduchile said:

Right. But I don’t think this Card is a bubble that will pop and leave you holding  a $100 card.  
 

You don’t think that either.  If you did, you wouldn’t have bought it.  
 

I’d also bet on Mantle, Aaron, Mays, Williams, Koufax, Kareem, Wilt, MJ, Kobe, and others not being a bubble that will ever pop.  
 

When I think of a bubble, I think of massive price drops that leave people with next to nothing in value. 

Yea I mean it will never be a $100. Maybe never a $1600 card again 

 

But I do not believe a psa 10 base topps kobe rookie will be $10000 for a long period of time

[BeenHereBefore 1,576]

40 minutes ago, vuduchile said:

It is gambling. That’s precisely why there’s still room for growth and long term stability. 
 

People lose money in casinos, buying scratch offs and betting games by the zillions.  That’s not ever going to stop.  
 

More people discover that there’s money to be made gambling on cards every day.  
When they learn that it’s safer than betting spreads, money lines  or props, a light bulb goes on.    

It is gambling and remember when me and my dad would buy a whole case of cards. We land that one card and it more then payed for the whole case. It was fun! We had a blast opening the packs and when one of us got the Big Fish was cool!

[vuduchile 1,947]

43 minutes ago, bandrus1 said:

Yea I mean it will never be a $100. Maybe never a $1600 card again 

 

But I do not believe a psa 10 base topps kobe rookie will be $10000 for a long period of time

I think Kobe cards are sort of an outlier because he died so young and tragically.  Plus, there’s lots of hype leading up to the HOF induction etc.  

$10K is too much for that card IMO.  I paid $250 each raw and they’re both at SGC now.  We may hold one long term, but we’re definitely selling one of them as soon as it gets here. 

[vuduchile 1,947]

30 minutes ago, BeenHereBefore said:

It is gambling and remember when me and my dad would buy a whole case of cards. We land that one card and it more then payed for the whole case. It was fun! We had a blast opening the packs and when one of us got the Big Fish was cool!

It’s even more of a gamble now.  Autos, game used patches, numbered cards, colored parallels.  Lots more stuff for people to chase in today’s boxes.  

[BeenHereBefore 1,576]

1 hour ago, vuduchile said:

It’s even more of a gamble now.  Autos, game used patches, numbered cards, colored parallels.  Lots more stuff for people to chase in today’s boxes.  

A lot of that was round in the 90's too and early 2000's. The one case me and my dad got back then was Nascar and we landed Dale Earnhardt Auto and payed off way more for the case we bought. I'm sure it's more stuff like that now but was going on then. It is fun too opening the packs! Seems like now landing some of those rare cards can payoff amazingly though.

[TimHauck 3,269]

8 hours ago, vuduchile said:

It is gambling. That’s precisely why there’s still room for growth and long term stability. 
 

People lose money in casinos, buying scratch offs and betting games by the zillions.  That’s not ever going to stop.  
 

More people discover that there’s money to be made gambling on cards every day.  
When they learn that it’s safer than betting spreads, money lines  or props, a light bulb goes on.    

It’s gambling if you sell immediately.

If you hold, it’s like buying a stock.

I know that was a different thread but I still don’t think it’s at all similar fantasy sports.

[vuduchile 1,947]

56 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

It’s gambling if you sell immediately.

If you hold, it’s like buying a stock.

I know that was a different thread but I still don’t think it’s at all similar fantasy sports.

Think whatever you want.  
I only see it firsthand 10-12 hours every single day.  What do I know?  

[TimHauck 3,269]

16 minutes ago, vuduchile said:

Think whatever you want.  
I only see it firsthand 10-12 hours every single day.  What do I know?  

You’re talking about the fantasy sports comparison right?

The only way I can see it being comparable to fantasy sports is if you’re buying individual cards and comparing to daily fantasy where each player is assigned an initial value.

For me, part of the fun of fantasy football is the draft.  Honest question, what in sports cards would be comparable to that?  Opening packs/boxes just seems like luck of the draw, more like buying lottery tickets than anything (but again really only if you sell immediately).

 

[TimHauck 3,269]

I’d also maintain that the closest sports cards came to fantasy sports was MLB Showdown cards.  In my googling was also pleasantly surprised to find out that there’s apparently a pretty active Facebook  group of people that actually still play it

[vuduchile 1,947]

9 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

You’re talking about the fantasy sports comparison right?

The only way I can see it being comparable to fantasy sports is if you’re buying individual cards and comparing to daily fantasy where each player is assigned an initial value.

For me, part of the fun of fantasy football is the draft.  Honest question, what in sports cards would be comparable to that?  Opening packs/boxes just seems like luck of the draw, more like buying lottery tickets than anything (but again really only if you sell immediately).

 

People are already buying up Soto, Tatis, Acuna and other single cards now in anticipation of them having a strong season.  They’re also buying Topps Series 1 boxes and packs like crazy to get the cards of from rookie class.  
 

They all have different reasons for buying, but many will sell or trade those cards daily based on player performance and outlook.  That experience is similar to daily and re draft fantasy

Building a collection of players for longer term hold is more like a dynasty league experience.  
 

 

[joneo 562]

I decided not to send in my Jordan rookie to PSA yet. It appears PSA is grading extremely picky right now and many cards are getting a lower grade than comparisons.  When I look at PSA standards for each grade, I come up with  mine being a 4.  Probably a 3 if I send it in. 

[bandrus1 413]

8 minutes ago, joneo said:

I decided not to send in my Jordan rookie to PSA yet. It appears PSA is grading extremely picky right now and many cards are getting a lower grade than comparisons.  When I look at PSA standards for each grade, I come up with  mine being a 4.  Probably a 3 if I send it in. 

If you intend to sell it you will have an incredibly difficult time selling it raw. It is the most counterfeited card in history

[joneo 562]

27 minutes ago, bandrus1 said:

If you intend to sell it you will have an incredibly difficult time selling it raw. It is the most counterfeited card in history

Very true...I just don't want PSA focking me over a couple thousand dollars on a bad grade. I'll be patient.

[Alias Detective 1,458]

On 4/23/2000 I purchased a Mariano Rivera Bowman PSA 10 rookie card for $325.  I looked on Ebay, they are selling at just shy of $2,000 now.

Yikes!

[bandrus1 413]

Psa 10 henderson rookie sold for over 180k last night.       Bowman tiffany griffey 10 over 23k.            When people say going to the moon this is the real moon

 

 

[vuduchile 1,947]

6 hours ago, Alias Detective said:

On 4/23/2000 I purchased a Mariano Rivera Bowman PSA 10 rookie card for $325.  I looked on Ebay, they are selling at just shy of $2,000 now.

Yikes!

Congrats

[vuduchile 1,947]

And now this:

"The sports-memorabilia mogul is selling a majority stake in Goldin Auctions, an eight-year-old shop dedicated to auctioning off collectibles — and trading cards in particular — to the Chernin Group, a Los Angeles-based investment firm. Chernin leads a blockbuster group of investors, including basketball star Kevin Durant, Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban, YouTube co-founder Chad Hurley, YouTube star Logan Paul and podcaster Bill Simmons.

The group is investing $40 million in Goldin Auctions to help the company become the dominant player in the booming market for sports-trading cards. Sales of such items have soared to new heights in the past couple of years, and Goldin’s firm has emerged as the leading auction house — the Sotheby’s of sports, if you will".

 

"Right now, Goldin is just an auction house. But Goldin and the Chernin Group have plans to make it a one-stop shop for collectors and hobbyists. The company can compile a database for potential buyers to look up recent transactions, record podcasts to offer insight into the market, and stage the biggest and best auctions around."

 

Among other things, Goldin hinted last week that they would be expanding to take on ebay as THE auction platform for cards at all price points.  There are a lot of shenanigans happening on ebay and they don't protect sellers very well.  Essentially, potential bidders on the platform would be vetted and auction results would be binding contracts.  This is big news.