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RoJo

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I must be missing something.

1. The historically hard headed coach has said he's the starter.

2. On a potential top 10 offense. 

3. The depth chart is an unproven and uninspiring third down back, a veteran who has said he's there to be a mentor, and a rookie playing for a coach who hates playing rookies. (It took a prime David Johnson half a year to take the skeleton of CJ2K.)

4. The hall of fame QB appears to be supporting him getting the work.

I'm not advocating for him to be a first round pick, but I don't understand how this guy is going later in drafts than high mileage, injury prone veterans, most of whom play on inferior offenses or have more proven back ups. 

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13 minutes ago, Serenity Now said:

I don't understand how this guy is going later in drafts than high mileage, injury prone veterans, most of whom play on inferior offenses or have more proven back ups. 

Let me explain it to you.

He's Ronald Jones II.

That should clear things up.

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2 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Let me explain it to you.

He's Ronald Jones II.

That should clear things up.

Opportunity trumps talent a lot of times. 

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47 minutes ago, Serenity Now said:

I must be missing something.

1. The historically hard headed coach has said he's the starter.

2. On a potential top 10 offense. 

3. The depth chart is an unproven and uninspiring third down back, a veteran who has said he's there to be a mentor, and a rookie playing for a coach who hates playing rookies. (It took a prime David Johnson half a year to take the skeleton of CJ2K.)

4. The hall of fame QB appears to be supporting him getting the work.

I'm not advocating for him to be a first round pick, but I don't understand how this guy is going later in drafts than high mileage, injury prone veterans, most of whom play on inferior offenses or have more proven back ups. 

Based on a 12 team non ppr. 

Where would you list him as Rbs only go? 

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14 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Based on a 12 team non ppr. 

Where would you list him as Rbs only go? 

I'd probably slot him somewhere around RB#18-22, but the order of my RB's in this range changes seemingly daily. It also depends on my team structure. I'd prefer Carson and Connor, but unless I'm trying to get 4th place I'm avoiding a lot of the veteran RB's here. Bell, Gordon, Johnson, Montgomery, all seem like high floor with capped ceilings that will lead you to a middle of the road finish. Jones and Taylor seem like the two in this area that can lead you to a championship or to the bottom of the standings.

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3 hours ago, Serenity Now said:

I'd probably slot him somewhere around RB#18-22, but the order of my RB's in this range changes seemingly daily. It also depends on my team structure. I'd prefer Carson and Connor, but unless I'm trying to get 4th place I'm avoiding a lot of the veteran RB's here. Bell, Gordon, Johnson, Montgomery, all seem like high floor with capped ceilings that will lead you to a middle of the road finish. Jones and Taylor seem like the two in this area that can lead you to a championship or to the bottom of the standings.

Hey no problem, I was just asking to get a ideal of how others feel about players.  No feet to the fire here. 

Thank you for the reply 

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2 hours ago, Matt Mueller said:

In .5 PPR I think Rojo Outscores Ekler on a per game basis 

I think that’s a sold comparison, I think If Jackson can stay healthy, he’ll get a lot of work. 

 

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4 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I think that’s a sold comparison, I think If Jackson can stay healthy, he’ll get a lot of work. 

 

Don't count out Joshua Kelley either.  Def the biggest back on the roster and he had great senior bowl week 

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well, I think some RB in that offense is going to put up some numbers.

Jones is as good a guess as anyone else there as I see a lot of unspectacular backs on the roster.

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47 minutes ago, Matt Mueller said:

Don't count out Joshua Kelley either.  Def the biggest back on the roster and he had great senior bowl week 

Kelley could be the short yardage rb, and steal those away.  I agree.  

 

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I don't know, it usually doesn't take RBs long to break out in the NFL. Either they have it or they don't.

It's not unheard of though for a back to take a couple of years to excel. Darren McFadden was a total bust for two seasons, then blew up and was a top 5 RB in his 3rd. Then he went back to being a bust. I don't know that Jones is capable of quite that kind of season but it's kind of a put up or shut up season for him.

I'm not crazy about him at all, but I think he will have his best season yet. Possibly over 1000 yards and serviceable numbers receiving. I think though what will make or break him is if the Bucs offense fires on all cylinders with Brady, and he can score a lot of TDs. Other than that, I say he's at best a low end RB2, or flex option.

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He’s the best rb the Bucs have. 

I think he’s a flex play with low rb2 upside. 

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4 hours ago, Matt Mueller said:

In .5 PPR I think Rojo Outscores Ekler on a per game basis 

Mods, please move this to the "Bold Predictions" thread.

Thank you.

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3 hours ago, polecatt said:

I don't know, it usually doesn't take RBs long to break out in the NFL. Either they have it or they don't.

It's not unheard of though for a back to take a couple of years to excel. Darren McFadden was a total bust for two seasons, then blew up and was a top 5 RB in his 3rd. Then he went back to being a bust. I don't know that Jones is capable of quite that kind of season but it's kind of a put up or shut up season for him.

I'm not crazy about him at all, but I think he will have his best season yet. Possibly over 1000 yards and serviceable numbers receiving. I think though what will make or break him is if the Bucs offense fires on all cylinders with Brady, and he can score a lot of TDs. Other than that, I say he's at best a low end RB2, or flex option.

it is certainly possiible.   I think they have a couple rookie backs.  

if not him, one of them may get an opportunity

that being said, with the WR's and TE's on this roster it really will limit what a defense can do and stacking the box will not be on the menu.

and Gronk isnt just a pass catching TE, he can block too.  

I doubt they will use a LB to cover him as not many LBs can cover him.   it will likely be  a CB or safety so when a run play comes up Gronk will be a road grader up front too.  Hed move that CB out of the way with one hand and move on to a second target.

make no mistake I dont think this will be a running offense, but i'd expect yards per carry to go up for the team as a whole

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RoJo NFL comparison= Jamal Charles..."*"

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23 minutes ago, gpann101 said:

RoJo NFL comparison= Jamal Charles..."*"

* that year in Denver.

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18 hours ago, Serenity Now said:

I must be missing something.

1. The historically hard headed coach has said he's the starter.

2. On a potential top 10 offense. 

3. The depth chart is an unproven and uninspiring third down back, a veteran who has said he's there to be a mentor, and a rookie playing for a coach who hates playing rookies. (It took a prime David Johnson half a year to take the skeleton of CJ2K.)

4. The hall of fame QB appears to be supporting him getting the work.

I'm not advocating for him to be a first round pick, but I don't understand how this guy is going later in drafts than high mileage, injury prone veterans, most of whom play on inferior offenses or have more proven back ups. 

 

If you're in a league or with people who think Jones is as 6th round pick or later, use that to your advantage.  Take him in the 5th or 6th round and when people are drafting their RB3's, you'll be drafting an RB2.

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11 hours ago, gpann101 said:

RoJo NFL comparison= Jamal Charles..."*"

🤣🤣

Jamaal Charles is the best big play RB in NFL history IMO.

Ronald Jones is not close

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3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

 

If you're in a league or with people who think Jones is as 6th round pick or later, use that to your advantage.  Take him in the 5th or 6th round and when people are drafting their RB3's, you'll be drafting an RB2.

 

3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

 

If you're in a league or with people who think Jones is as 6th round pick or later, use that to your advantage.  Take him in the 5th or 6th round and when people are drafting their RB3's, you'll be drafting an RB2.

TBay, you are the Homer here.  what are your thoughts on him? 

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36 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

TBay, you are the Homer here.  what are your thoughts on him? 

He thinks RoJo will average 20 touches per game this season.

'Nuff said.

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4 hours ago, Ray_T said:

 

TBay, you are the Homer here.  what are your thoughts on him? 

Jones is going to get the mass majority of the 1st and 2nd down work.  I'm sure they're going to throw in some work to the other guys here there, but it's going to be Jones getting the lions share.  Tampa will be winning a lot of games, so they're going to be running the ball a lot in the 4th Q.  As I pointed out in the link I provided in the McCoy thread, last year showed that in games where the Bucs were comfortably ahead, they ran the ball over 27 times per game.  In their 7 wins last year, they averaged 25... those are just rushes by RB's only.

The Bucs averaged 22 rushes per game last by RB's, if they increase that by 3 (which I think is reasonable), to 25 rushes per game, for the whole year you're looking at 400 rush attempts.  I don't think it's unrealistic to think that an 11+ win team will have 3 carries more per game than a 7 win team.  Even FFToday has the Bucs at approximately 375 attempts by RB's, so I don't think I'm unrealistic here where we differ by about 1.5 attempts per game.  Where they and I differ is on workload.  I think them stating around 53+% is entirely too low.  I think Jones gets two-thirds of the carries, so 67% of the RB's carries.  Well, 67% of 400 rushes is just short of 17 rushes per game.

I think Jones gets about 2.5 (on average), receptions per game, which is a small tick above last year.  In total, that puts Jones at just over 19 touches per game.  In the link I posted, I said he could be at about 20, that's where my numbers are coming from.  I think I rounded here and there and threw out 18 and 2... well, 17 and 2.5 is essentially the same.  Anyway at 19 touches per game, if he averages the same 0.84 points per touch, you're looking at around 16 fpg.  Last year, that's around RB15 (in ppr leagues).

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Flex with low rb2 upside.  

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21 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Jones is going to get the mass majority of the 1st and 2nd down work.  I'm sure they're going to throw in some work to the other guys here there, but it's going to be Jones getting the lions share.  Tampa will be winning a lot of games, so they're going to be running the ball a lot in the 4th Q.  As I pointed out in the link I provided in the McCoy thread, last year showed that in games where the Bucs were comfortably ahead, they ran the ball over 27 times per game.  In their 7 wins last year, they averaged 25... those are just rushes by RB's only.

The Bucs averaged 22 rushes per game last by RB's, if they increase that by 3 (which I think is reasonable), to 25 rushes per game, for the whole year you're looking at 400 rush attempts.  I don't think it's unrealistic to think that an 11+ win team will have 3 carries more per game than a 7 win team.  Even FFToday has the Bucs at approximately 375 attempts by RB's, so I don't think I'm unrealistic here where we differ by about 1.5 attempts per game.  Where they and I differ is on workload.  I think them stating around 53+% is entirely too low.  I think Jones gets two-thirds of the carries, so 67% of the RB's carries.  Well, 67% of 400 rushes is just short of 17 rushes per game.

I think Jones gets about 2.5 (on average), receptions per game, which is a small tick above last year.  In total, that puts Jones at just over 19 touches per game.  In the link I posted, I said he could be at about 20, that's where my numbers are coming from.  I think I rounded here and there and threw out 18 and 2... well, 17 and 2.5 is essentially the same.  Anyway at 19 touches per game, if he averages the same 0.84 points per touch, you're looking at around 16 fpg.  Last year, that's around RB15 (in ppr leagues).

I have no doubt the team will be higher in the standings.

they wont be playing from behind because their QB threw 2-3 picks in the first half either.

this generally means more run plays.   especially if they have a lead in the second half.

To that end, it makes sense to predict more run plays for this team in 2020-21.   the acquisition of McCoy likely will cut into his share of the carries, so his share of the pie is smaller, but we are also looking at a larger pie.

I think McCoy will at best be an insurance policy.  I'd predict he will be a staple in the hurry up offense.   even last year with limited uses he caught roughly 30 balls.

I'm sure he will spell jones (assuming Jones remains the starter)

I think his carries go up for sure unless one of the rookies tap into some of those.

I think the # of passes he catches will likely go down a bit due to the presence of McCoy.  

this will be somewhat offset by the fact that Brady will throw to  his checkdown receiver (Usually a TE or RB) rather than throw a pick like Winston often did.  

Brady will be content to work the ball down the field in smaller chunks than Winston did if the deep WR's are covered. 

I do agree carries will go up.  especially in lopsided wins.

I think yards per carry also go up because teams wont be able to stack the box ever.  and Gronk can block as well as any TE in the NFL.  That's huge.

catches will go down somewhat.   but i dont think my projection is that far from yours.   if he remains the starter He is a RB2.    perhaps with higher upside than your normal RB2.

If the end result is Brady throws for 4200 -4400 yards passing, with the same # of TD's Winston threw but substantially less INT's,  this team likely goes 10-6.  possibly better if Gronk returns to pre retirement form.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

I have no doubt the team will be higher in the standings.

they wont be playing from behind because their QB threw 2-3 picks in the first half either.

this generally means more run plays.   especially if they have a lead in the second half.

To that end, it makes sense to predict more run plays for this team in 2020-21.   the acquisition of McCoy likely will cut into his share of the carries, so his share of the pie is smaller, but we are also looking at a larger pie.

I think McCoy will at best be an insurance policy.  I'd predict he will be a staple in the hurry up offense.   even last year with limited uses he caught roughly 30 balls.

I'm sure he will spell jones (assuming Jones remains the starter)

I think his carries go up for sure unless one of the rookies tap into some of those.

I think the # of passes he catches will likely go down a bit due to the presence of McCoy.  

this will be somewhat offset by the fact that Brady will throw to  his checkdown receiver (Usually a TE or RB) rather than throw a pick like Winston often did.  

Brady will be content to work the ball down the field in smaller chunks than Winston did if the deep WR's are covered. 

I do agree carries will go up.  especially in lopsided wins.

I think yards per carry also go up because teams wont be able to stack the box ever.  and Gronk can block as well as any TE in the NFL.  That's huge.

catches will go down somewhat.   but i dont think my projection is that far from yours.   if he remains the starter He is a RB2.    perhaps with higher upside than your normal RB2.

If the end result is Brady throws for 4200 -4400 yards passing, with the same # of TD's Winston threw but substantially less INT's,  this team likely goes 10-6.  possibly better if Gronk returns to pre retirement form.

Something everyone overlooks, when talking about Jones losing pass targets to McCoy (which is faulty to begin with - which I'll get to next), is 1st and 2nd down.  Tampa is going to run a ton of 12 personnel this year.  Last year, the Bucs ran 95% of their plays with 1 RB on the field.  With the addition of Gronk, does anyone really think the Bucs are going to change that much?  I don't.  I expect Tampa, when they go 3 wides, 1 of them will be a TE and a TE will be on the line.  When they go 4 wides, 2 will be a TE.  Meaning, on 1st and 2nd down, when Brady is checking down, he's going to be checking down to Jones a significant amount of time.  This is why I expect Jones' target share to go up.  Last year, Jones caught 77.5% of his pass targets, as a frame of reference Chris Carson caught 78.7%, Joe Mixon caught 77.8%, David Johnson caught 76.6%, Melvin Gordon caught 76.4%, and Ezekiel Elliott caught 76.1%, so it's not like Jones sucked.  If Jones gets a bump in total targets, his reception total will go up. 

Last year, while starting only half the season, Jones only saw 36.5% of the teams offensive snaps.  Let's say that he sees 60% (as a frame of reference [Carson 65%, Mixon 60%]), if he maintains the same target to snap count ratio, he should be around 66 targets giving him 51 receptions (which is 3.2 per game).  That's all assuming that Brady doesn't throw to his RB's more than Winston... and we know he will.  Jones could be up to as many as 4 receptions per game (doubled last year).

 

Why is thinking that McCoy will take targets from Jones faulty?  It's faulty because Tampa didn't throw the ball to their RB's on 3rd or 4th down last year.  Everyone says, McCoy will targets away from Jones on 3rd down.  Well, no he won't.  Tampa (Winston), threw to RB's only 23 times last year, after 2nd down... of which, only 6 went to Jones.  Barber only had 1, Ogunbowale had 14, and TJ Logan had the other 2.  So yes, McCoy will get targets on third down (as you mentioned and I agree), but he's not taking them from Jones, he's taking them away from Godwin, Evans, Gronk, Howard, and Brate.

 

 

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Read today that the Bucs Coach said that Vaughn might return kicks.  

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5 hours ago, weepaws said:

Read today that the Bucs Coach said that Vaughn might return kicks.  

to me he was the largest threat to the starting job, but I am convinced he needs more development before he is ready for this.

interestingly a number of websites said his pass pro was poor, yet fantasy pros said it was good. 

because most sites said it was questionable, I'm inclined to go that way.  and he wont get on the field until that improves.

I think this is a player who was hurt by the shortened camp due to covid.

That being said....I appreciate the comments TBay.   i didnt realize that Tampa didnt throw to the RB's on third down last year.  I think with Brady there, it will happen now.  and if most of those passes go to McCoy its not a loss for Jones production as you cant take something from someone that they never had.

 I agree.  there will be a lot of two TE sets next year.  I dont see this changing much.   When you have that much talent at TE, you gotta put em on the field.

 

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15 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

to me he was the largest threat to the starting job, but I am convinced he needs more development before he is ready for this.

interestingly a number of websites said his pass pro was poor, yet fantasy pros said it was good. 

because most sites said it was questionable, I'm inclined to go that way.  and he wont get on the field until that improves.

I think this is a player who was hurt by the shortened camp due to covid.

That being said....I appreciate the comments TBay.   i didnt realize that Tampa didnt throw to the RB's on third down last year.  I think with Brady there, it will happen now.  and if most of those passes go to McCoy its not a loss for Jones production as you cant take something from someone that they never had.

 I agree.  there will be a lot of two TE sets next year.  I dont see this changing much.   When you have that much talent at TE, you gotta put em on the field.

 

Going to hurt the production of those two WRs.  

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21 hours ago, weepaws said:

Read today that the Bucs Coach said that Vaughn might return kicks.  

This has more to do with TJ Logan tearing his patellar tendon than anything else.

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

This has more to do with TJ Logan tearing his patellar tendon than anything else.

Would agree, but helps my ranking value of R Jones.  

Makes me like him even a little bit more. 

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On 8/23/2020 at 3:01 AM, idlewild said:

RoJo or McCaffrey?

RoJo for sure.  I’m hoping he falls to me at the #2 spot.

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RoJo has struggled catching the football and I do not see that changing.  Brady doesn't trust him.

Dare Ogunbowale could be ppr worthy and lead the rbs in receptions.

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9 minutes ago, Smileseers said:

RoJo has struggled catching the football and I do not see that changing.  Brady doesn't trust him.

Dare Ogunbowale could be ppr worthy and lead the rbs in receptions.

Flawed thinking.  Ogunbowale won't be on the field that much.  McCoy is the guy to target aside from Jones.  If you're picking up Ogunbowale in any league, save the pickup because your season is over.

  • Haha 1

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9 hours ago, Smileseers said:

RoJo has struggled catching the football and I do not see that changing.  Brady doesn't trust him.

Dare Ogunbowale could be ppr worthy and lead the rbs in receptions.

Can I ask you a question? 

Based on rb only ranking, where would you rank Jones? 

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On 8/22/2020 at 12:13 AM, weepaws said:

Going to hurt the production of those two WRs.  

Not really.  Go back to 2007.  Brady threw the ball 578 times that year, had 4800 yards and 50 TD's, right?  Brady threw the ball 160 times to Moss and 145 times to Welker.  They combined for 210 receptions 2,668 yards, and 31 TD's.  Their next 3 pass catchers (not RB's), combined for 174 targets, 118 receptions, 1,535 yards, and 14 TD's.

 

@The Football Guru has Gronk, Howard, & Brate to combine for 98 receptions, 1,162 yards, and 10 TD's.  If he's right, there'll be enough passes, receptions, yards, and TD's to go Evans and Godwin's way.  To note, I think Brady is going to be a lot closer to his 2007 numbers than a lot of people think.  I think this season, Tampa will have one of the 10 best offenses of all time.  Just like last year, when I said both Evans and Godwin could be top 7 WR's, that can happen this year.  At the time Evans got hurt, the two were #2 and #3 in fantasy.

 

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I know we’ve done this already, but Brady isn’t the same player he was in 2007. 

I know you think that both those excellent WRs will be top 7 in ff. 

Thats ok with me , I don’t.  

I think one of them will finish in the top 7. 

But not both. 

The projections I see are.  

Brady 366/564 att, that’s 72 less pass att then Winston had last season and 14 les rec. 

in 2007 rb Maroney lead the pats in touches with 189 in 13 games, that’s 14.5 per game, your predictions of Jones has him having 20 touches per game, so that’s more running and more targets to him in the passing game then the eight to Maroney.  

I see more targets like you do to the Rbs and Tes then we see being predicted. 

Also the prediction of R Jones on this site , have him avg 15 touches per game, and you’ve said you see 20. 

Now if Brady does complete 64% of his that will be because of his tes and Rbs check downs.  

Last season Brady completed 60% of his passes, his worst in six seasons , he also had no te help. 

So ill stick to my statement way way back when, I don’t see two top seven WRs from the Bucs this season, but they should win more games.  

Anyway great chat thank you.  

Ps like I said before , if they both do finish in the top seven , I’ll be the first one to congratulate you, and you know I will.  

 

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Not really.  Go back to 2007.  Brady threw the ball 578 times that year, had 4800 yards and 50 TD's, right?  Brady threw the ball 160 times to Moss and 145 times to Welker.  They combined for 210 receptions 2,668 yards, and 31 TD's.  Their next 3 pass catchers (not RB's), combined for 174 targets, 118 receptions, 1,535 yards, and 14 TD's.

 

@The Football Guru has Gronk, Howard, & Brate to combine for 98 receptions, 1,162 yards, and 10 TD's.  If he's right, there'll be enough passes, receptions, yards, and TD's to go Evans and Godwin's way.  To note, I think Brady is going to be a lot closer to his 2007 numbers than a lot of people think.  I think this season, Tampa will have one of the 10 best offenses of all time.  Just like last year, when I said both Evans and Godwin could be top 7 WR's, that can happen this year.  At the time Evans got hurt, the two were #2 and #3 in fantasy.

 

Mike does the projections for the site, not me.

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So, to recap, Brady will have 7000 yards and 63 TDs, RoJo will average 20 touches per game, three TEs will split 1800 yards and 17 TDs, while the top 2 WRs will be among the top 5 in the nation with at least 2000 yards and 15 TDs each.

Book it.

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