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LoOnAtIk

Buy Low: Cam Akers

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1 hour ago, kutulu said:

I had gaskins in one league and he was doing pretty good fantasy wise but he wasn't tearing it up either.  Ahmed's situation reminds me of samkon gado's in GB a few years ago, right place right time cause of injuries, sometimes you can catch lightening in a bottle. Don't mean to hijack the thread.

As a dolphins fan I can say Ahmed has been nice but Gaskin is still the guy until Ahmed takes it away from him. He has the opportunity now that’s for sure.

 

Weepaws a big problem with your analysis is you only go by the box score. Ahmed has been the beneficiary of some very positive game script while gaskin struggled earlier with Fitzpatrick but if you watch the film, Gaskin has been very impressive on his runs this season. There’s a reason why they chose him starter over Howard and Breida. 
 

Ahmed has looked great but it’s still Gaskin’s job for now.

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1 hour ago, weepaws said:

I think Akers true value will be next season. 

He’s the worst performer of the three Rams Rbs. 

I don’t care how fast nd how talented he is, or has been, or will be, right now he’s avg 4 points per game in non ppr, with two targets on the passing game, Nd zero tds.  

And if one owns him, what would be the low you would trade for him?  

 

If he were the best of the 3 what would be the point of this entire thread weepaws? 
 

it seems you can’t grasp the concept of “buy low” 

 

You heard it from multiple owners now they don’t want to trade him but every situation is different. Some owners get desperate and they’ll quickly trade away an underperforming 5th round pick in order to win now.

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14 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

If he were the best of the 3 what would be the point of this entire thread weepaws? 
 

it seems you can’t grasp the concept of “buy low” 

 

You heard it from multiple owners now they don’t want to trade him but every situation is different. Some owners get desperate and they’ll quickly trade away an underperforming 5th round pick in order to win now.

Multiple?  I guess you’re counting yourself because literally one other person said they’d need a “sizeable offer” to trade him, but apparently a backup TE counts as “sizeable.”

He’s owned in less than 30% of leagues, and some of those are probably guys that auto-drafted him and haven’t touched their roster since.  If someone wants him, decent chance he’s on the WW

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48 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Multiple?  I guess you’re counting yourself because literally one other person said they’d need a “sizeable offer” to trade him, but apparently a backup TE counts as “sizeable.”

He’s owned in less than 30% of leagues, and some of those are probably guys that auto-drafted him and haven’t touched their roster since.  If someone wants him, decent chance he’s on the WW

I counted 3 separate posts that mentioned owning him. None of them belong to me. Not sure why you can’t just go back and read.
 

He’s owned in 43% of CBS leagues which is more than 30%. 

 

Maybe it was 30% last week? Point is, if you wait for him to have a good game before picking him up, then you don’t know what buy low is and you’re probably too late. 
 

You’re making my point for me, if he’s on the WW you can get him for nothing. He’s an excellent stash with literally ZERO risk because he was free and potentially huge rewards.

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3 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

10 for 38 isn’t going to kick down any doors for him. 

You obviously haven't been understanding this entire thread.  It was actually 9 carries for 42 yards. His final carry got blown up in the backfield for -4 yards (and we all know those runs for loss don't count in most fantasy leagues):lol:

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1 minute ago, Showboat said:

You obviously haven't been understanding this entire thread.  It was actually 9 carries for 42 yards. His final carry got blown up in the backfield for -4 yards (and we all know those runs for loss don't count in most fantasy leagues):lol:

I never said to start him this week. Y’all are so dense lol. The point is to stash for later. Without doing anything he’s already getting more touches than Henderson, who’s basically been playing the best ball of his career. Think about that...

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28 minutes ago, Showboat said:

You obviously haven't been understanding this entire thread.  It was actually 9 carries for 42 yards. His final carry got blown up in the backfield for -4 yards (and we all know those runs for loss don't count in most fantasy leagues):lol:

Oh, thats right. I forgot about that. 

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36 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

I counted 3 separate posts that mentioned owning him. None of them belong to me. Not sure why you can’t just go back and read.
 

He’s owned in 43% of CBS leagues which is more than 30%. 

 

Maybe it was 30% last week? Point is, if you wait for him to have a good game before picking him up, then you don’t know what buy low is and you’re probably too late. 
 

You’re making my point for me, if he’s on the WW you can get him for nothing. He’s an excellent stash with literally ZERO risk because he was free and potentially huge rewards.

Owning him is different than “not wanting to trade him.”  One other guy said he’s holding, I figured he meant holding instead of dropping...

Agree with your last paragraph.  As I said earlier, in most cases he’s a speculative WW pickup, not a “Buy Low”.

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41 minutes ago, Showboat said:

You obviously haven't been understanding this entire thread.  It was actually 9 carries for 42 yards. His final carry got blown up in the backfield for -4 yards (and we all know those runs for loss don't count in most fantasy leagues):lol:

By the way, I happened to see that play.  It didn't get blown up by the defense.  He tripped over the wide receiver in jet sweep motion that was supposed to be blocking for him.

 

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12 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Owning him is different than “not wanting to trade him.”  One other guy said he’s holding, I figured he meant holding instead of dropping...

Agree with your last paragraph.  As I said earlier, in most cases he’s a speculative WW pickup, not a “Buy Low”.

Well true but now we’re just arguing over semantics. Buy low can apply to all league types. There’s no way he’s on the waiver wire in dynasty leagues and such.

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6 minutes ago, nobody said:

By the way, I happened to see that play.  It didn't get blown up by the defense.  He tripped over the wide receiver in jet sweep motion that was supposed to be blocking for him.

 

Doesn’t matter. Its similar vice versa when a player has a “huge game” with 20 carries 100 yards and a TD but let’s say that TD came on an 80 yard run. Context matters when scouting a player. Speaking in generalities you can’t just blindly look at a box score and expect it to paint the entire picture.

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2 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Doesn’t matter. Its similar vice versa when a player has a “huge game” with 20 carries 100 yards and a TD but let’s say that TD came on an 80 yard run. Context matters when scouting a player. Speaking in generalities you can’t just blindly look at a box score and expect it to paint the entire picture.

Sure but I think most would agree an 80 yard run is better than tripping over a WR

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1 minute ago, TimHauck said:

Sure but I think most would agree an 80 yard run is better than tripping over a WR

Not if you’re Nick Chubb lol

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Barring injury, you can't expect anything other than a 3 headed monster in the Rams backfield this season.  If having a piece of that helps your team, then go for it, but everything I've seen of Cam Akers so far looks awfully David Montgomerish.  Now that could be due to injury or due to a lack of preseason, or maybe it will be due to just not clicking for a year or two like Ronald Jones--but don't act butthurt if you pick up Akers as anything other than an injury lottery ticket for 2020, because he may have the stats, but the eye test says he's not ready to be a lead NFL RB yet.

You can "buy low" on any number of players currently on the waiver wire, but the vast majority of them will never appreciate in value.

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7 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Doesn’t matter. Its similar vice versa when a player has a “huge game” with 20 carries 100 yards and a TD but let’s say that TD came on an 80 yard run. Context matters when scouting a player. Speaking in generalities you can’t just blindly look at a box score and expect it to paint the entire picture.

So did you watch? I figure you would have brought up the fact that he was tripped if you did. 

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2 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

As a dolphins fan I can say Ahmed has been nice but Gaskin is still the guy until Ahmed takes it away from him. He has the opportunity now that’s for sure.

 

Weepaws a big problem with your analysis is you only go by the box score. Ahmed has been the beneficiary of some very positive game script while gaskin struggled earlier with Fitzpatrick but if you watch the film, Gaskin has been very impressive on his runs this season. There’s a reason why they chose him starter over Howard and Breida. 
 

Ahmed has looked great but it’s still Gaskin’s job for now.

So we agree about Gaskins, I said he was a solid performer, I’m taking ff of course. 

His abs shows him to be a low rb2 , solid performer . So I see lol I need to know from those box scores. M

Thanks 

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2 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

If he were the best of the 3 what would be the point of this entire thread weepaws? 
 

it seems you can’t grasp the concept of “buy low” 

 

You heard it from multiple owners now they don’t want to trade him but every situation is different. Some owners get desperate and they’ll quickly trade away an underperforming 5th round pick in order to win now.

Buy low if there anything to buy, 4 points per game non ppr, isn’t worth of any buying.  So Im wondering like you are, what is the point of this thread, since there is no value to buy someone that’s not even worthy of a roster spot. Like I said  he hasn’t been on a roster in my 14 team non ppr since week 4-5. 

So we indeed agree once again. 

Thanks. 

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10 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

So did you watch? I figure you would have brought up the fact that he was tripped if you did. 

Doesn’t count , remember.  

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13 hours ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Doesn’t matter. Its similar vice versa when a player has a “huge game” with 20 carries 100 yards and a TD but let’s say that TD came on an 80 yard run. Context matters when scouting a player. Speaking in generalities you can’t just blindly look at a box score and expect it to paint the entire picture.

I agree that sample removal is a viable technique in statistical analysis when an outlying sample is skewing results, but the problem is if you're pulling out a player's worst run, you should also be pulling out the best run, so you take away the -4 yard run and the 17 yard run.  That gives him 8 rushes for 25 yards.

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6 minutes ago, nobody said:

I agree that sample removal is a viable technique in statistical analysis when a outlying sample is skewing results, but the problem is if you're pulling out a player's worst run, you should also be pulling out the best run, so you take away the -4 yard run and the 17 yard run.  That gives him 8 rushes for 25 yards.

Again I was never expecting much from this particular game. My main takeaway was the amount of touches he received relative to the other 2 RBs. I expect the trend to continue as he gets more comfortable in the NFL.

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So two more touches then Henderson and Brown, is why Akers should be a buy low, even though, he was the less productive of the three, yeah. 

 

  • Thanks 1

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50 minutes ago, weepaws said:

So two more touches then Henderson and Brown, is why Akers should be a buy low, even though, he was the less productive of the three, yeah. 

 

Yes.

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I have no dog in this fight. For what it's worth, here's a summary of the Rams backfield by Hobbs @ razzball.com

Malcolm Brown – Six carries, 33 yards, two rushing TD; two receptions (two targets), 18 yards. Brown was the top fantasy scorer in the Rams’ backfield this past week (RB11 with 17.1 half-PPR points), but who paced the trio in touches? It was Cam Akers (10 carries, 38 yards), whose 10 touches on the ground topped the equal eight touches from Brown and Darrell Henderson (seven carries, 28 yards, one rushing TD; one reception on one target, five yards). Still, Akers was the only one to finish outside of RB2 range, as even Henderson was able to find pay dirt and total 9.3 points, good for RB24. Akers’ usage is trending upward and he should be owned in all leagues, but Henderson is the safest weekly play in this committee at the moment.

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That's pretty much exactly what Loon-a-tick has been saying. :o

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18 hours ago, nobody said:

That's pretty much exactly what Loon-a-tick has been saying. :o

True. McVey is getting him more involved. I don’t think this is the week he starts getting the majority of carries, but the usage seems indicate his opportunity is coming. Now we have to wait and see what he does with it. It may take a little while longer, and some don’t have the luxury of waiting. Those that do should hold tight 

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Well, it's the start of the 3rd quarter and Akers has 1 carry for -1 yards. (6 carries for the whole team)

Akers probably has 2 more drives this game, so he'll need to breakout soon if it's going to be this game.  Of course Henderson may have just helped Goff throw a pick to JPP on a screen, so maybe he'll get his chance.

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First drive he had a pretty good run and then got absolutely stood up by Suh on 3rd and short.

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Teams can only hope to contain him.  

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Before Akers’ 11 yard run in the 3rd Q, I think the rams as a team had about 5 yards rushing for entire game. They clearly abandoned the run early on in this game. He still looked better than the other 2 RBs IMO. Henderson had a screen play set up for him where he didn’t even turn around to look for the pass. 
 

Akers will be unleashed eventually, you’re gonna wanna be on board when it happens. If you can afford the stash do it, that’s what I’ve been saying for weeks. I was never starting him these last few weeks, just watching.

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Until next weekend. 

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1 hour ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Akers will be unleashed eventually, 

eventually could mean 3 years from now. What week specifically, between 12-16, can Akers owners be rewarded with the 'the Prince who was Promised'?

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I've watched him run.  He may win the job but I don't see anything from him that wows me and says he's anything more than a decent RB.  I don't see the things I do when I watch CEH, Swift, or even Dobbins.   Doesn't look like a gamechanger for fantasy to me.

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6 hours ago, jrokh said:

eventually could mean 3 years from now. What week specifically, between 12-16, can Akers owners be rewarded with the 'the Prince who was Promised'?

Could definitely be 3 years from now but when it happens, I’ll be ready lol

 

 

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