Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
AxeElf

Axe Elf Guides Your Draft

Recommended Posts

I think the Falcons might play more two te sets, and that could hurt his red zone targets. Pitts And Hurts are going to both play a lot this season. Plus keep your eyes on his foot issue, I think that will be an issue. 

Of you draft Ridley at his current very high price best of luck  n

And Pitts would be perfect with his size in the red zone.  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, weepaws said:

I think the Falcons might play more two te sets, and that could hurt his red zone targets. Pitts And Hurts are going to both play a lot this season. Plus keep your eyes on his foot issue, I think that will be an issue. 

Of you draft Ridley at his current very high price best of luck  n

And Pitts would be perfect with his size in the red zone.  

 

I don't know man. I think if one thing is going to be consistent with Ridley it will be his TDs.

Players that have knack for the end zone usually score regardless of that stuff. The only thing that stops them is usually when the entire offense is stagnant.

He's gonna be picking up the slack for Julio and Hooper, plus his own. Pitts, despite all the hype is still a rookie TE. He could be a red zone target right out of the box, but I don't think anyone will be surprised if he's not. Plus, it's not like they have an RB who is clearly gonna score a lot. So I don't just see his TDs drying up on their own.

Now, his foot or Matt Ryan turning into a washed up Eli Manning type QB, those could be legit concerns.

Still, I think Ridley will be a solid WR1 this season

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It wouldn’t be a surprise to me if Pitts given his size is a red zone target early and also Hurst who is also a talented te 

i think Ridley will be a low wr1 high wr 2. And I think M Davis can fall into better then Gurley who without knees scored 9 rushing tds.  

I think losing Jones is a bigger deal then most do I’m sue, Jones might not have scored a lot of tds , but he did rack up a lot of yards.  They don’t have player currently that can replace that.  

He just had more work done to his foot about a month ago and that is concerning based on his current adp 

I see less tds for Ridley based on less team production

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/22/2021 at 7:41 PM, IGotWorms said:

Juju isn’t that good. Big difference

That’s not what the ff world thought JuJu first season without A Brown. 

From what I found, JuJu adp in 2019 wa 17-19.  

Round two pick, I’m trying to help avoid another mistake. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, TimHauck said:

round 3?

Heh.  Sorry, life happened and I got behind, and then the ADPs had changed so much that it almost wasn't worth picking up where I left off.  At least you can get through those critical first two picks now...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Axe-

insightful and helpful as always. 

I have the 8th pick in my league, and I’ve eschewed picking a TE until later rounds for the reasons you’ve described, relating to the opportunity cost that weakens the RB & WR positions. 
The consensus seems to be that beyond Andrews, Hock and Pitts, TE will be a poop parade of high variable, low production shots in the dark. 
I’ve got Tonyan as a target in the 8-10 range, then there’s unsure candidates like Higbee, Gronk and Trautman. 
My question to you is, if you are waiting on TE, which later round guys do you see being capable of providing a fair level of production for a team strong at WR and RB positions?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't know that I would put Higbee in the "unsure" category; Higbee and Everett were targeted 122 times in the Rams' offense last season (60 and 62, respectively), and now Everett is in Seattle.  Higbee should see close to 100 targets pretty easily.  But you'll probly have to spend an 8th-9th round pick to get him--which isn't too bad, after you've already scooped up 7-8 of the best RBs and WRs.

Evan Engram is a good value around the 11th.

Anthony Firkser and Jared Cook are a couple of later round values...  and then the ultimate TE gut check... the TE5 last year in PPR points per game, available in the final round of your draft, C.J. Uzomah.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, AxeElf said:

the TE5 last year in PPR points per game…C.J. Uzomah.

Please don’t use this as an argument for him again, he played 2 games last season. I’m all for staking a claim to predict last round guy as a top 10 option at his position but not like this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

Please don’t use this as an argument for him again, he played 2 games last season. I’m all for staking a claim to predict last round guy as a top 10 option at his position but not like this.

You win your way, Axe Elf will win his way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

Please don’t use this as an argument for him again, he played 2 games last season. I’m all for staking a claim to predict last round guy as a top 10 option at his position but not like this.

Perhaps we should all adopt the elf method and draft RB Antonio Williams of the Buffalo Bills. He finished the season in the top 5 avg points per game of all RB's. Ahead of the great Derrick Henry... For sure he will be a top 20 RB this season...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Perhaps we should all adopt the elf method

You're just now realizing this?

5 minutes ago, jrokh said:

He finished the season in the top 5 avg points per game of all RB's. Ahead of the great Derrick Henry... For sure he will be a top 20 RB this season...

People are already criticizing my Uzomator pimps for being based on a small sample size.  Good luck getting them to bite on one only half as big.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

You win your way, Axe Elf will win his way.

It’s not about winning or being right about Uzomah, it’s about using a 2 game sample size in your case for ppg. Your other cases for him are relevant, that one isn’t. Don’t do it again or the elf is going back on the shelf.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, tanatastic said:

It’s not about winning or being right about Uzomah

In fantasy football, it's always about winning.  How you get there is irrelevant, but following in the footsteps of Axe Elf is a good start.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

People are already criticizing my Uzomator pimps for being based on a small sample size.  Good luck getting them to bite on one only half as big.

I would expect anyone reading this would recognize sarcasm and mockery 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

In fantasy football, it's always about winning.  

I only wish. Winning in heads up FF is sadly pretty random since you can win scoring 70 or lose scoring 150. You just have to hope the schedule lined up where you randomly scored more than your opponent in enough weeks. Total scoring is the most impressive team stat.
 

Last year in my league we all loved laughing at two guys who didn’t make the playoffs. One was the 2nd highest scorer and the other had Kamara and Adams, the no.1 WR AND RB. That’s what makes it fun though.

And no, starting the 42nd ranked te is not a good start to hopefully winning.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

And no, starting the 42nd ranked te is not a good start to hopefully winning.

It is when they return top 10 performance.

8 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

Winning in heads up FF is sadly pretty random

It only seems that way when suffering from low Elf esteem.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/20/2021 at 7:22 PM, AxeElf said:

Axe Elf's commentary on every player, listed by RTSports ADP.

Round One

1.04 Christian McCaffrey
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
The chances of the consensus #1 pick finishing the season as the #1 performer are pretty slim.  It would be hard not to take CMC among the top 3 players off the board, but Henry and Zeke are both more likely to return #1 overall performance.

2.08 Dalvin Cook
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
With a 17 game season this year, Cook owners will be without him for an extra week, once he makes his perennial early exit, stiffing his owners for their playoff run.  For as long as he's healthy, he's an advantage--but you can't count on him to be around at the end of the year.

3.85 Alvin Kamara
Æ™ Rating: About Right
4th overall is kind of a toss-up between Cook and Kamara--do you risk the early exit, or the Breesless offense?  But you should definitely be thinking about Kamara by the 5th overall pick, so an ADP of 4ish is About Right.

4.74 Derrick Henry
Æ™ Rating: Underrated
Henry has the best chance of being the fantasy world's #1 performer this season, and as such, he deserves to be the overall #1 pick.  Getting him any later than that is stealing.

5.79 Ezekiel Elliott
Æ™ Rating: Underrated
By the same token, the player with the second-highest chance of being the fantasy world's #1 performer this season should be taken among the first three picks.  If you can get him with the sixth, that's a win.

5.91 Saquon Barkley
Æ™ Rating: About Right
Even with the threat of Barkley being less than 100% to start the season, he's more likely to be around for your team in the playoffs than say Dalvin Cook (though less likely than Henry or Zeke).  Barkley, Kelce, Hill... after the top 5 RBs are off the board, it's really just a question of which position you want to start with--RB, WR, or TE?  I would recommend the RB, due to positional scarcity and the fact that Barkley can still perform as an elite RB down the playoff stretch--but if you're not comfortable with Barkley at 6th overall, 7th really isn't much of a reach at all, and I'm not sure who else you would be considering by the 8th overall pick.

6.40 Jonathan Taylor
Æ™ Rating: Bust
Jonathan Taylor attended Wisconsin, and it's a good rule of thumb to consider all Wisconsin RBs to be detritus.  But in case you still don't understand why Taylor cannot possibly return greater than RB2 performance this year, consider that he is competing with a two-time 1000 yard rusher (Mack) returning to share the backfield duties with him this year on 1st and 2nd down (with 3rd down and passing situations already owned by Nyheim Hines).  And if you STILL think Taylor will continue the eye-popping stats he put up at the end of last year, then I guess you think that the Colts will get to play teams who have given up (Las Vegas, Houston, Jacksonville) every week, like they did when he was putting up those eye-popping stats at the end of last year.  (Unfortunately, the Colts' first three opponents are Seattle, the Rams and Tennessee.)

8.53 Travis Kelce
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
I'm sorry, but Round 1 is just too early to be taking a TE--not so much because you don't gain an advantage at that one position, but because you lose an advantage at EVERY OTHER ONE of your starting positions.  Your RB1 is now an RB2, relative to everyone else's.  Your WR1 is now a WR2, relative to everyone else's.  Your RB2 and WR2 and WR3 are now comparable to everyone else's RB3s and WR3s and WR4s.  Maybe you get lucky and find a few undervalued gems later in the draft--but you're going to have to do that three or four times to regain the edge you lost by using your first pick on a TE (especially one who finished the 2019 season tied with Foster Moreau with five [5] receiving TDs).

9.87 Tyreek Hill
Æ™ Rating: About Right
Hill should be considered the top WR prospect this season, and should definitely be an option for anyone drafting in the back half of the first round, assuming the half-dozen RBs who are worthy of being picked in the front half of the first round are gone.  I would definitely take him over any of the remaining RBs with a 1st-round ADP and be satisfied with Aaron Jones, Najee Harris or Joe Mixon in the 2nd.

11.86 Nick Chubb
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
I would have a hard time investing a 1st round pick into a committee-based RB, despite Chubb's history of good performances in tandem with Hunt.  Still, I think his good performances are being a little overrated.  Chubb's average finish among RBs in his 3 year career is 12th, with a high of 8th in 2019--and here he is being drafted as the 8th RB off the board (and that's counting Jonathan Taylor, so really 7th).  So he's basically being drafted to match his career best season, but if he loses a couple of his 12 TDs to OBJ's return or something, he could drop out of the top 15 pretty quickly.

12.83 Austin Ekeler
Æ™ Rating: About Right
When I say About Right, I mean his ADP of the 13th overall pick (high in the 2nd round) not as the 11th-highest ADP (low in the first round).  I'm a little wary of him even at 13, but by 14 or 15 I'd be fairly comfortable, assuming that Aaron Jones and Joe Mixon have already been taken--so I'll say 13 is About Right.  I'm not sure that Ekeler (and the running game in general) will have as large of a role in the offense as in previous seasons--but the Chargers' offense in general should put Ekeler in a position to score on the reg.

13.55 Cam Akers
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
This guy just doesn't have the resume or track record to be considered a first round pick yet.  He scored 2 TDs in the regular season as a rookie, and had 1 game with double-digit fantasy points before December.  Maybe this is his breakout year, but I'd let someone else be the guinea pig, as you could do much better with Aaron Jones or Joe Mixon here.  Besides, he seems like the most likely first round pick to tear his Achilles or something.

(Yeah, I started writing this last night.)

Stay tuned for Round Two...

 

On 7/21/2021 at 11:40 PM, AxeElf said:

Round Two

13.92 Aaron Jones
Æ™ Rating: Underrated
About the lowest that Jones should ever go would be pick 14, and I'd be taking him before some of the Round One players like, well, Taylor (duh), Ekeler, and probably Chubb too.  Jones has finished as a top 5 RB in both standard and PPR scoring in each of the past two seasons--and an extended absence for Rodgers could mean even more touches.

14.03 Davante Adams
Æ™ Rating: About Right
It's kind of remarkable that both Jones and Adams have virtually the exact same ADP.  While I called Jones Underrated, I'm saying Adams is About Right for now, because an extended absence for Rodgers would obviously have a more negative effect on Adams than it would on Jones--but I wouldn't begrudge a Packers fan taking Jones and Adams as their bookend picks.  There are worse ways to start your draft, especially if Rodgers comes around.  With Rodgers on board, Adams becomes Underrated at this ADP.

14.60 Stefon Diggs
Æ™ Rating: About Right
It's hard not to see Diggs and Adams as neck-and-neck for the next WR off the board after Hill right now.  You could even value Diggs a little higher if you have no faith in Rodgers returning to Green Bay.

14.62 Joe Mixon
Æ™ Rating: Underrated
I guess the injury history is scary enough for Mixon to be the 12th RB off the board, but Mixon was chugging along as the RB9 last season before he got hurt--and he was 2.6 PPR fantasy points from being the RB6 at that point.  Any improvement to the offensive line, coupled with a few more touches in Gio's absence, and Mixon has a top 5 ceiling with reasonable mid-RB1 upside.  I want Mixon before I want Chubb or Ekeler (or, you know, Taylor)--but I'm not going to lie--the injury risk with Mixon is not insignificant.

15.73 Najee Harris
Æ™ Rating: Underrated
After Jones and Mixon are off the board, I want Harris before I want Chubb or Ekeler too.  A couple of years ago, I might not have trusted a rookie RB, but it seems like more and more rookie RBs are stepping directly into contributing roles nowadays--and Harris has all the makings of a bellcow RB for an offense that should still have some firepower.

17.44 DeAndre Hopkins
Æ™ Rating: Underrated
With the other weapons that the Cardinals have, I can't really move Hopkins into the top WR tier with Hill, Diggs and Adams--but I can say he's right below them.  He probably represents about the same draft value at his position as guys like Chubb and Ekeler do at theirs (and more than Taylor), so Hopkins should really be going off the board somewhere closer to the top of the 2nd round.  He's a pretty solid value if you get him at or below his ADP in the bottom of the 2nd round.

20.59 Antonio Gibson
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
It's kind of amazing that the first five players in Round Two are separated by less than 2 ADP points, but then it's almost 2 full points to Hopkins and more than 3 full points to Gibson.  Since Hopkins should probably be a couple of points higher than he is, this means that if you're picking in the 2nd half of Round Two and one of the players listed before Gibson falls to you, you should take them (unless of course it's Jonathan Taylor).  It should also be noted that the last six players in Round Two are separated by less than 3.5 points.  That means that there is a lot of uncertainty after the top 18 players, with personal favorites beginning to play a larger factor in drafting decisions than consensus values.  It also means that it almost doesn't matter who you pick from the next six players listed--but the two worst values among them are the RBs, starting with Gibson.  All the usual caveats about committee RBs apply.  Give me one of the next batch of WRs to go with my Round One stud RB--there are only like four WRs off the board at this point.

20.88 Calvin Ridley
Æ™ Rating: About Right
I'm a little wary of the Atlanta passing game this year under new coaching, without Julio, and maybe trying to shoehorn a rookie TE into a WR role, but you can't argue with the opportunity Ridley has to repeat as a top 5 receiver, so he's a solid value in the 2nd half of the 2nd round.

21.50 D.K. Metcalf
Æ™ Rating: About Right
I'll stand by the About Right tag, but this is the high end of that range for Metcalf.  I like Jefferson a little more than Metcalf for this season (Jefferson already outscored him last year as a rookie), and I'd even bring Michael Thomas into the late 2nd conversation as well--but Metcalf deserves his status as a 2nd round pick.

21.84 Darren Waller
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
See Round One comments on Kelce.  There are still some tasty WR1s to be had here, and there's a good chance you can grab two of them at the turn to go with your Round One stud RB.  But if you opt for a TE, you won't have a RB2 or a WR2 until the end of the fourth round.  I would think the Raiders might be hoping to develop some of their other young WRs a bit more this year too, and not be so reliant on Waller--but he should still be among the top 5 TEs.  It's just too early to be drafting TEs.

23.61 Justin Jefferson
Æ™ Rating: Underrated
It's pretty remarkable that Jefferson finished as the WR6 as a rookie.  But he seems to be a perfect piece of that offensive puzzle, so sustainability if not improvement in his second season is reasonable.  I'd be pulling the trigger on him as soon as Hopkins was off the board.

23.99 Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Æ™ Rating: Overrated
As I mentioned with Gibson, the two RBs with ADPs in the 2nd half of the 2nd round are the worst values here--but CEH probably shouldn't be drafted for another round yet.  He borders on a BUST rating--and when he goes as high as the top half of the 2nd round I'd call him that--but at the 2/3 turn I won't go quite that far.  I'd just rather have Chris Carson, who is far more of a bellcow in an offense almost as good as the Chiefs'.  McKinnon is going to be more of a nuisance than people who draft CEH in the 2nd round want to admit.

Stay tuned for Round Three...

I'd say you're batting about .300 and this isn't baseball. 

Anyone who listened to the elf is probably 0-1 right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Anyone who listened to the elf is probably 0-1 right now.

Nonsense.  The Elf Himself is 8-8 even after sticking Mostert into every lineup he could for Week 1.

Those who listened to the Elf and didn't do that are probly 4-1.

You're in good hands with Axe Elf.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Nonsense.  The Elf Himself is 8-8 even after sticking Mostert into every lineup he could for Week 1.

Those who listened to the Elf and didn't do that are probly 4-1.

You're in good hands with Axe Elf.

Anyone that drafted your top 3 "underrated" players are certainly 0-1.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Anyone that drafted your top 3 "underrated" players are certainly 0-1.

Nonsense.  The Elf Himself drafted his top 3 "underrated" players, and went 8-8, even after sticking Mostert into every lineup he could for Week 1.

Those who listened to the Elf and didn't do that are probly 4-1.

Packed with fantasy wisdom, Axe Elf really satisfies!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Your top 5 "overrated" players were all at the very least solid. Some were excellent. CMC, Cook, Taylor, Kelce, and Chubb. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Your top 2 rounds ADP analysis is not a good barometer for an entire draft but so far I'd say you're a bit off with some of these guys.

 

To your point, it is still very early.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Your top 5 "overrated" players were all at the very least solid. Some were excellent. CMC, Cook, Taylor, Kelce, and Chubb. 

It was intended to be a season-long draft guide, not a daily fantasy power ranking for Week 1.

That said, Cook was the #7 RB, so "overrated" at #2 was correct--Axe Elf had him at #4.

And Jonathan Taylor was the #10 RB, so calling him a RB2 was like one position off--more pinpoint accuracy from the Elf.

But maybe you could hold the knee-jerks until at least October...?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

It was intended to be a season-long draft guide, not a daily fantasy power ranking for Week 1.

That said, Cook was the #7 RB, so "overrated" at #2 was correct--Axe Elf had him at #4.

And Jonathan Taylor was the #10 RB, so calling him a RB2 was like one position off--more pinpoint accuracy from the Elf.

But maybe you could hold the knee-jerks until at least October...?

Keep spinning that web Constanza…

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

It was intended to be a season-long draft guide, not a daily fantasy power ranking for Week 1.

That said, Cook was the #7 RB, so "overrated" at #2 was correct--Axe Elf had him at #4.

And Jonathan Taylor was the #10 RB, so calling him a RB2 was like one position off--more pinpoint accuracy from the Elf.

But maybe you could hold the knee-jerks until at least October...?

So then why are you even ranking them? Where did the golden boy Henry finish this week?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

So then why are you even ranking them?

To help people draft the best fantasy football team that they can.

15 minutes ago, LoOnAtIk said:

Where did the golden boy Henry finish this week?

About where he usually finishes after Week 1; 27th in standard and 28th in PPR.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, AxeElf said:

To help people draft the best fantasy football team that they can.

No no.... I meant why did you rank them in your previous post?

If it's not the point of the OP why did you bother ranking them for me?

Devil's advocate?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, AxeElf said:

About where he usually finishes after Week 1; 27th in standard and 28th in PPR.

You can find him in these weeds any given week which is why owning Derrick Henry drives me insane. I have him in one of my leagues unfortunately. You have to line him up every week because of where you drafted him but in between the inevitable 2 or 3 MONSTER games that he has, he'll throw in a bunch of stinkers like this as well. 

Dalvin is far more consistent on a weekly basis. I prefer stability with my early picks. Henry is boom or bust every single week it feels like. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Derrick Henry in 2020:

  • 3 games last season with over 200 yards and 2 TDs
  • 4 games with under 100 yards rushing and 0 TDs. In those 4 games a total of 1 reception for 9 yards.

Not mentioned is week 9 where he ran for 103 with 0 TDs and 1 catch for 6 yards. That would give him 10.9 points in standard and 11.9 in PPR that week. 

Off the top of my head I don't think Dalvin had any weeks that low in scoring in which he played last season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just saw this thread. As I mentioned last week- you need to understand, or at least apply better, the idea of cost value of one player over another. For example, yes in a vacuum Kelce in the first round or Waller in the second might seem silly but the positional value is so much higher than everyone else at the position. Last year Kelce scored ~313 points (1 PPR). Waller scored ~278. That is 35 points. From there the third place guy, Logan Thomas, scored ~177. So the drop from Kelce to Thomas is 136 points. From Waller it is 100. Over the course of 16 games that is 6+ points a week.

So say you went Waller in the 2nd. You probably passed up someone like McLaurin for DJ Moore. The difference is not that great there points wise. Basically you need to know the numbers you are getting with guys.

I can't stress this enough to people- they make mock draft sites. Go into them over the late summer and run a bunch of mock drafts from all spots. Try different strategies. Get a sense of guys and where they will fall. From there make tier rankings (or just get them from a fantasy site you trust) and know where you are willing to fall with guys. From there you can better gauge opportunity cost in drafts as they progress and it prevents you from chasing runs at any given point. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yea I stress , use mock drafts for entertainment. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×