***Wagering thread***

[bostonlager 2,664]

17 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

@bostonlager

Any commentary on why you take who you take or are you reposting someone else’s picks?  I have a few shekels to put on 1 or 2 games at most.  

 

5 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

 

The ole middle?

The Dabo era has taken a dive off the hill. Beck will win the Heisman - Give me Georgia big.

Hurricanes have better all around talent and will make the CFB playoff. Florida is the lower tier of the SEC these days. 

Notre Dame on the road in the toughest stadium in the country and only returning 7 starters. - Give me A&M. 

Miami +3.5  is the Miami (OH) Redhawks - the real Miami that was a school before Florida was a state. They are favored to win the MAC and that is where I went to school so this one is a homer pick. 

[Alias Detective 1,388]

I like a&m. Cheers. 

[bostonlager 2,664]

 

[bostonlager 2,664]

The B1G on CBS rather than the SEC can eat a d1ck. 

[bostonlager 2,664]

Godammmnnit. No more homer bets this year.  Let’s go Aggies, bring us home a winning day 

[WhiteWonder 2,674]

ND closed out a $200 parlay for me tonight.  

week 1 of CFB has always seemed easy for me to bet, and I don't really even follow college. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,451]

I bet on 4 games this week and lost them all, gave the points in everyone and think maybe that was a bad idea in week 1.

[bostonlager 2,664]

Nice hit @edjr  I have an early round of golf this morning so will post here rather than text this early 

[edjr 6,578]

20 hours ago, Alias Detective said:

I like a&m. Cheers. 

smart money was on ND.  WW and I hit nice parlays 

[edjr 6,578]

What I like to do when betting is find teams that are losing early and bet their money line.  

[Alias Detective 1,388]

On 8/24/2024 at 5:15 PM, bostonlager said:

I don’t give a sh1t about Va Tech and this doesn’t hold a candle to dotting the I… but this will always be bad ass 

 

 

 

Gimme a focking helmet!

[bostonlager 2,664]

2 hours ago, Alias Detective said:

Gimme a focking helmet!

Fockin A, brother!!

[bostonlager 2,664]

I’m going USC ML. +150. I don’t know a goddamnnn thing about either of these teams but know they both had massive turnover. It opened at 6 and is now down to 3.5. Let’s go Trojans 

[bostonlager 2,664]

It also makes me sad that USC is now a member of the B1G. Not surprised though, the west coast sucks in all ways of life and have to move into good territory 

[BeenHereBefore 1,451]

6 hours ago, bostonlager said:

I’m going USC ML. +150. I don’t know a goddamnnn thing about either of these teams but know they both had massive turnover. It opened at 6 and is now down to 3.5. Let’s go Trojans 

I lost all 4 my bets giving the points this week, taking USC and the points in this one. Another reason why is like what I seen from the USC QB last year when Caleb sat out.

[bostonlager 2,664]

Let's play some props

Baltimore at Kansas City

Lamar Jackson u 32.5 pass att

Lamar Jackson u 20.5 completions

Travis Kelce o 5.5 receptions

Zay Flowers o 52.5 receiving

Isiah Pacheco u 60.5 rushing

Xavier Worthy u 46.5 receiving

 

 

 

[BeenHereBefore 1,451]

4 hours ago, bostonlager said:

Let's play some props

Baltimore at Kansas City

Lamar Jackson u 32.5 pass att

Lamar Jackson u 20.5 completions

Travis Kelce o 5.5 receptions

Zay Flowers o 52.5 receiving

Isiah Pacheco u 60.5 rushing

Xavier Worthy u 46.5 receiving

 

 

 

I like those O's. Taking Pacheco gets on my nerves though, his O/U is always around 60 and he seems to hover there each week and only goes Over it by a few yards towards the end of the game. Would it kill him to rip off a 20 yard run or longer sometime ?

[listen2me 23 1,825]

Probably going light on spreads this week.  And hit them on overreaction week 2.  

Off the top of my head a couple props I bet a few days ago.  

Rashan Gary over 7.75 sacks -115. Hafley is letting them pin their ears back on thr DL thos year.  Gary hasnt translated to great sack numbers but his pressure rates are amongst the elite edge guys.  Health willing he could obliterate this number.  

Jaxson Smith Njigba over 64.5 catches -110.  He had 63 in his rookie year.  I expect much more this season.  

Justin Jefferson over 94.5 catches -110.  Darnold but I expect them to be down and him to still be forced the ball.  

As with most futures...the numbers are solid, just depends on health.  

[Hawkeye21 2,380]

I need to tail someone this year.  I was horrible last year betting on football.

[listen2me 23 1,825]

I forget to post them many weeks.  Like tonight I may dabble in something goofy for action but dont usually post those anyway.  

I sort of like the under tonight.  

Props were getting juiced l all day.  I know many people like justice hill's over recieving.  It was 9.5 last I checked. 

No idea on a side.  Its first game of year.  Both are good teams.  Ravens are always good in regular season.  Coin flip.

As a reminder, Vegas isnt counting homefield as 3 pts anymore.  Its more like 1.5-2.  

[Hawkeye21 2,380]

I'm taking the Ravens ML tonight.

[JuneJuly 193]

Remember week 1 UNDERS.  Went 9-2-1 last year within the system.  Tonight's game is one of those.  Somebody will be around tomorrow to post the rest.

[JuneJuly 193]

23 hours ago, bostonlager said:

Let's play some props

Baltimore at Kansas City

Lamar Jackson u 32.5 pass att

Lamar Jackson u 20.5 completions

Travis Kelce o 5.5 receptions

Zay Flowers o 52.5 receiving

Isiah Pacheco u 60.5 rushing

Xavier Worthy u 46.5 receiving

 

 

 

Seeing too many overs for it being week one.  One I like is Jackson over 8.5 rush att.

[shorepatrol 1,870]

KC -3 

Under 46.5

Mahomes under 268.5 passing 

Lamar under 215.5 passing 

+709 Parlay 

 

[edjr 6,578]

200 to make 250 balt money line

[Fireballer 2,639]

Over 6.5 total points in 1st quarter boosted to +130 on DK.  Just seems like one of those no brainers that end up losing.

[BeenHereBefore 1,451]

18 minutes ago, JuneJuly said:

Seeing too many overs for it being week one.  One I like is Jackson over 8.5 rush att.

Heck he only has two overs and more unders.

[JuneJuly 193]

21 minutes ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Heck he only has two overs and more unders.

Sorry, meant to say “I’m seeing”, didn’t mean anything about Lager’s picks.  

[bostonlager 2,664]

Great start to the season 

[listen2me 23 1,825]

12 hours ago, Fireballer said:

Over 6.5 total points in 1st quarter boosted to +130 on DK.  Just seems like one of those no brainers that end up losing.

Not a fan of any pre-made promo bets they offer.  

[Horseman 2,353]

 

[Hawkeye21 2,380]

16 hours ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I'm taking the Ravens ML tonight.

I suck again.

[Horseman 2,353]

On 9/8/2023 at 9:15 AM, Horseman said:

Quote

Week 1 unders that close b/w 41-48 have hit at 61% over the past 13 seasons.

That was 5 years ago though. 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/nfl-league-average-points-per-game-by-year-2001-to-2022

Last year hit 70%.

Last year 50% of the teams scored 20 points or less.

Without going and getting 2019, 2020 and 2021 it won't budge the percentage very much.

Bal/Hou u43.5

Cle/Cin u47.5

Ind/Jax u46.5

Min/TB u45.5

NO/Ten u41.5

Pti/49rs u41.5

Chi/GB u41.5

Den/Las u44.0

NE/Phi u 45.0

Sea/Lar u46.5

Nyg/Dal u45.5

Nyj/Buf u45.5

 

 

Bal/Kc u46.0

Pit/Atl u42.0

Min/Nyg u41.0

Car/No u41.5

Ten/Chi u45.5

Ari/Buf u47.5

Den/Sea u42.0

Wa/Tb u44.0

Dal/Cle u42.0

Nyj/Sf u43.5

And I think I'm going to take the spreads over 48.0 too.

Lar/Det u51.0 it's moved even higher

Hou/Ind u49.0

Jax/Mia u50.5

Gb/Phi u49.0

The new kick-off rules are the dumbest thing I've ever seen.  I wonder if it messes up this system a little bit always starting at the 30 instead of the 20.  Teams scored 5 out of 6 times after a kick-off last night (minus the one where KC started at the 19).  Ugh.   

[edjr 6,578]

28 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I suck again.

cost me 200

[edjr 6,578]

15 hours ago, edjr said:

200 to make 250 balt money line

[Hawkeye21 2,380]

4 minutes ago, edjr said:

cost me 200

Portnoy put $300k on it.

[edjr 6,578]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Portnoy put $300k on it.

my 200 means more to me than his 300k 

[Hawkeye21 2,380]

Just now, edjr said:

my 200 means more to me than his 300k 

Probably.  I know it would for me as well.  I hate losing money and that's why I only place small bets for fun.

[edjr 6,578]

52 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Probably.  I know it would for me as well.  I hate losing money and that's why I only place small bets for fun.

200 doesn’t hurt me monetarily,  but my god is does mentally

[WhiteWonder 2,674]

lol portnoy. 8 bites everyone knows the rules