Kyler Murray

[gcmmidwest 99]

A running QB with 2 of the best wide receivers in the league   has got to be under valued in fantasy a good quarterback is priceless im sold 

[AxeElf 787]

16 minutes ago, gcmmidwest said:

A running QB with 2 of the best wide receivers in the league

I think maybe you esteem Christian Kirk higher than most.

[weepaws 2,469]

Lots of good Qbs , sold on what? 

[gcmmidwest 99]

20 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Lots of good Qbs , sold on what? 

Sold on producing 

[polecatt 404]

Under valued?

He's a top 5 QB by most people's ranks

[tanatastic 2,061]

He’s not undervalued he comes at a very high draft premium and is ranked in the top 3-4 QBs everywhere. I like him to push 1k 10td on the ground again this season.

[weepaws 2,469]

1 hour ago, gcmmidwest said:

Sold on producing 

Lots of Qb will be producing. 

[snatchit 108]

I like him, almost took him over Dak. You mention good WR's, maybe he doesnt run as much... which is his value. He has hinted that he wont run as much this year... that gave me pause

[TBayXXXVII 2,130]

Murray is on my DND list.  He's going way to high for where I will take him.  I don't know why people just think he'll keep running like he did last year.  They point to Lamar and say "see?".  Well, the difference is that Jackson isn't all that good of a passer... the Ravens know this, that's why the threw the ball less last year than the year before.  Murray on the other hand, is a much better passer.  Arizona has to pick up Murray's 5th year option at seasons end, and the last thing they want to do is risk getting him hurt this year knowing that the 5th year is guaranteed money know, and have him coming into season 4 off an injury.

He'll run, certainly.  Their backfield is mediocre at best, so someone has to pick up the slack.  That said, I don't think they're going to call designed runs very often like they did last year.  I think almost all of his rush attempts (aside from goal line carries), will be when the pass breaks down.  I think his rush totals fall somewhere between last year and his rookie season, closer towards his rookie season.  I'm thinking around 600 yards and 6 TD's.  That's a drop of 58 points.  I'll give him half of that back in passing, so a drop of 29 points.  That's an average of 1.7 fpg.  He only outscored Tannehill by 2.5 fpg.  So, assuming Tannehill is static, that means he'll be worth less than 1 point per week less than Murray.  Why take Murray in the 4th round when you can get Tannehill in 8th, and only lose 0.8 fpg?  The player you get in the 4th by not drafting Murray will likely be worth more than 0.8 fpg than the guy you get in the 8th because you did take Murray in the 4th.

[jrokh 569]

No expert on Zona, but my recollection of watching them last year is their OL was below average, which led to the play breaking down and Murray taking off. No clue if they improved the line.

[TBayXXXVII 2,130]

According to PFF, the Cards ranked 12th in 2020 and are at 11th to start 2021.  Maybe the poor OLine play you saw was more Murray related than OLine related.   

I never had a need or desire to watch Arizona last year, so I don't know.

[SexyRexy 60]

He's not undervalued. And he's also a stud.

[Ray_T 594]

3 hours ago, jrokh said:

No expert on Zona, but my recollection of watching them last year is their OL was below average, which led to the play breaking down and Murray taking off. No clue if they improved the line.

Last year the line was better than it was the year before.   But using the previous year as a comparison, the Bar is pretty low there.

I think the line is definitely better, but Murrays running ability covers up a lot of flaws in the line that would be apparent if they didnt have a running QB.

 

[Gepetto 989]

Patrick Mahomes II

Josh Allen

Dak Prescott

Lamar Jackson 

Russell Wilson

Kyler Murray

 

I could move Kyler Murray as high as 4 or even 3.  I would suggest drafting one of these 6 QBs this year.

[weepaws 2,469]

What about one of the next six? 

[Gepetto 989]

Aaron Rodgers is a good pick, and Tom Brady and Justin Herbert, but I prefer QBs with rushing yards and rushing TDs.  After that maybe Tannehill and Burrow but they'll score less.  I don't like any others really.

[TBayXXXVII 2,130]

Just now, Gepetto said:

Aaron Rodgers is a good pick, and Tom Brady and Justin Herbert, but I prefer QBs with rushing yards and rushing TDs.  After that maybe Tannehill and Burrow but they'll score less.  I don't like any others really.

It's funny, I prefer pocket passers in keeper/dynasty leagues but more mobile QB's in redraft leagues.  Why that's funny is because in my keeper league (2QB), I drafted both Mahomes (late in his rookie season), and Allen (late after sucking ass his rookie season), and have kept them both... kept them again this year.  They're both really cheap... Mahomes in the 11th and Allen in the 12th.

[polecatt 404]

8 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

Aaron Rodgers is a good pick, and Tom Brady and Justin Herbert, but I prefer QBs with rushing yards and rushing TDs.  After that maybe Tannehill and Burrow but they'll score less.  I don't like any others really.

Brady, Rodgers, and Herbert combined for 11 rushing TDs last season and I would imagine they each get some this season too

[weepaws 2,469]

1 hour ago, polecatt said:

Brady, Rodgers, and Herbert combined for 11 rushing TDs last season and I would imagine they each get some this season too

Add ten more to that total from Tannehill and Burrow. 

 

[MTSkiBum 1,596]

1 hour ago, polecatt said:

Brady, Rodgers, and Herbert combined for 11 rushing TDs last season and I would imagine they each get some this season too

 

You add together 3 QB's and you *almost* get as many rushing TD's as a washed up Cam Newton.

 

This is an argument against those guys having as much rushing upside.

[MTSkiBum 1,596]

18 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Add ten more to that total from Tannehill and Burrow. 

 

Those 2 QB's almost had as many rushing TD's as Murray last year. This is one of the benefit of a rushing QB, more rushing TD's.

[polecatt 404]

2 minutes ago, MTSkiBum said:

 

You add together 3 QB's and you *almost* get as many rushing TD's as a washed up Cam Newton.

 

This is an argument against those guys having as much rushing upside.

Maybe that's why you should put it in context and include their passing numbers as well.

[MTSkiBum 1,596]

If you combine Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tom Brady, and Derrick Carr you could have led the league in rushing TD's from the QB spot last year!!!

[MTSkiBum 1,596]

3 minutes ago, polecatt said:

Maybe that's why you should put it in context and include their passing numbers as well.

 

For which of the top rushing QB in 2020: Josh Allen, Desaun Watson, or Kyler Murray?

[Ray_T 594]

On 8/29/2021 at 3:22 PM, polecatt said:

Under valued?

He's a top 5 QB by most people's ranks

This.

Not sure undervalued is the word I would use.

[polecatt 404]

1 hour ago, MTSkiBum said:

 

For which of the top rushing QB in 2020: Josh Allen, Desaun Watson, or Kyler Murray?

Don't move the goal posts now, you said Cam Newton

[MTSkiBum 1,596]

2 minutes ago, polecatt said:

Don't move the goal posts now, you said Cam Newton

I stated "washed up cam Newton" and even though he is washed up he still finished as a low end QB 1.

[weepaws 2,469]

Newton was 20 in total points and 24th in avg pr game points. So I guess in a 20 teamer he was. 

Thanks 

[weepaws 2,469]

2 hours ago, MTSkiBum said:

Those 2 QB's almost had as many rushing TD's as Murray last year. This is one of the benefit of a rushing QB, more rushing TD's.

Naw I’ll pass on taking a Qb that early , when I can get Tannehill with his seven rushing tds much later. 

Thanks. 

[MTSkiBum 1,596]

4 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Naw I’ll pass on taking a Qb that early , when I can get Tannehill with his seven rushing tds much later. 

Thanks. 

 

Tannehill has averaged 2 rushing TD's per year so i would predict a regression to the mean.

[TBayXXXVII 2,130]

5 minutes ago, MTSkiBum said:

 

Tannehill has averaged 2 rushing TD's per year so i would predict a regression to the mean.

His average in Tennessee is 5.5.  I think he regresses to that mean, but I don't think he regresses to the Miami mean that used a different offense and game caller.

[MTSkiBum 1,596]

10 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

His average in Tennessee is 5.5.  I think he regresses to that mean, but I don't think he regresses to the Miami mean that used a different offense and game caller.

But they just brought in red zone threat Julio Jones who will be stealing all of those TD's.

 

But, in all seriousness i think 3-4 is what i would project for him since that is what most prototypical QB's end up with.

[TBayXXXVII 2,130]

9 minutes ago, MTSkiBum said:

But they just brought in red zone threat Julio Jones who will be stealing all of those TD's.

 

But, in all seriousness i think 3-4 is what i would project for him since that is what most prototypical QB's end up with.

Did they?  Tannehill has 11 rushing TD's in his 2 years in Tennessee.  Of those 11, 6 were less than 5 yards and 2 were over 20, meaning that only 3 were in the realm in which Jones would make an impact as a "red zone threat" in which he could steal TD's.  I think Tannehill will still be around 5 rushing TD's.  I mean, we're splitting hairs here, but still... I think he's less than 7 but more than 4.  

Tannehill is unique.  Unique in how he came to be.  Most mobile QB's like Murray, Vick, Lamar, Allen, etc, are great runners who were able to play QB and develop (to varying extents).  That's not Tannehill.  He started out as a WR.  He has a different mindset with the ball in hand than every other QB.  I don't think adding Jones will do anything to curb his rushing inside the 5 because there's nothing to curb.  Tannehill only had 8 rush attempts inside the the opponents 10 yard line, 4 of which were from the 5 and in.

I think all that Jones brings is another option outside the 10 yard line.  What Jones will do is add to Tannehill's passing TD's and take away from Ficken's FG attempts.  It won't take away from his rushing.  Not getting the fluke 21 and 45 yarders will do that.

[MTSkiBum 1,596]

2 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Did they?  Tannehill has 11 rushing TD's in his 2 years in Tennessee.  Of those 11, 6 were less than 5 yards and 2 were over 20, meaning that only 3 were in the realm in which Jones would make an impact as a "red zone threat" in which he could steal TD's.  I think Tannehill will still be around 5 rushing TD's.  I mean, we're splitting hairs here, but still... I think he's less than 7 but more than 4.  

Tannehill is unique.  Unique in how he came to be.  Most mobile QB's like Murray, Vick, Lamar, Allen, etc, are great runners who were able to play QB and develop (to varying extents).  That's not Tannehill.  He started out as a WR.  He has a different mindset with the ball in hand than every other QB.  I don't think adding Jones will do anything to curb his rushing inside the 5 because there's nothing to curb.  Tannehill only had 8 rush attempts inside the the opponents 10 yard line, 4 of which were from the 5 and in.

I think all that Jones brings is another option outside the 10 yard line.  What Jones will do is add to Tannehill's passing TD's and take away from Ficken's FG attempts.  It won't take away from his rushing.  Not getting the fluke 21 and 45 yarders will do that.

 

That is all good information. Maybe I will start grabbing him in some best balls.

 

My Julio comment was tongue in cheek. He is famous for his lack of TD's.

https://www.espn.com/blog/atlanta-falcons/post/_/id/35816/why-isnt-falcons-julio-jones-getting-in-the-end-zone-more-often

 

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/10/5/17939990/atlanta-falcons-julio-jones-touchdown-drought-calvin-ridley

 

 

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,130]

5 minutes ago, MTSkiBum said:

 

That is all good information. Maybe I will start grabbing him in some best balls.

 

My Julio comment was tongue in cheek. He is famous for his lack of TD's.

https://www.espn.com/blog/atlanta-falcons/post/_/id/35816/why-isnt-falcons-julio-jones-getting-in-the-end-zone-more-often

 

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/10/5/17939990/atlanta-falcons-julio-jones-touchdown-drought-calvin-ridley

 

 

 

Yeah, I've always wondered why they never threw to him.  Had to be a game call issue.    It's an issue that I think could continue.  In the last 2 years, the Tannehill has thrown 29 TD passes inside the 10 yard line... only a third (9), went to WR's, the rest are TE's and RB's.  Without watching their games, my only deduction is that Tennessee uses a lot of 12, 22, and possibly even 23 personnel inside the 10.  I have no idea if that's going to change.  It might, now that Arthur Smith is gone.

[Ray_T 594]

2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

His average in Tennessee is 5.5.  I think he regresses to that mean, but I don't think he regresses to the Miami mean that used a different offense and game caller.

I'm with TBay on this one.

In Miami, the team was bad.  real bad.

While that means the QB can get some yards in garbage time, the QB also usually gets Less TD's (due to a longer field when starting drives) and more INT's (due to trying to force the ball to score quicklywhile playing from behind to give your team a chance to win)

as far as the Less TD's go, that applies across the board to the whole offense.

so I'd agree, what he did in Miami is not what you can expect in Tennessee.  you are comparing apples to oranges.  at the very least if using the miami data, I'd place greater weight on the recent body of work (tennessee stats)

[weepaws 2,469]

Tannehill avg only four points less per game then did Murray , I’ll wait and take Tannehill later even in the double digits. 

I’ll easily make up the four points def with my better Rbs and WRs.  

Also in his first season Murray only had four rushing tds , so one can guarantee he’ll score double digit rushing tds this next season. 

Thanks. 

[gcmmidwest 99]

On 8/31/2021 at 8:44 PM, weepaws said:

Tannehill avg only four points less per game then did Murray , I’ll wait and take Tannehill later even in the double digits. 

I’ll easily make up the four points def with my better Rbs and WRs.  

Also in his first season Murray only had four rushing tds , so one can guarantee he’ll score double digit rushing tds this next season. 

Thanks. 

Ok  

[weepaws 2,469]

I have Cousins on two teams and Stafford on one, and my teams are 2-0 Vs the Murray own teams , thank you Jesus.  

[Ray_T 594]

On 8/30/2021 at 8:05 AM, jrokh said:

No expert on Zona, but my recollection of watching them last year is their OL was below average, which led to the play breaking down and Murray taking off. No clue if they improved the line.

this might be why Murray is so valuable.

does he run the ball as often as he does if the line breaks down? 

think about it.   its the rush yards that make this guy so valuable as a fantasy QB.   Take them away hes still good, but not top 5 good.

and yes, his running ability covers up a lot of flaws in that line.  Some teams at times choose to contain him in the pocket rather than try to sack him.   So despite the bad line play the numbers could be a whole lot worse.