Stock Market bubble - will crash

[seafoam1 2,926]

4 minutes ago, lod001 said:

It's coming and in 2025. Cannot be stopped from happening.  They will blame Trump.

It's Trump's fault before it happens. The Alamo not having a basement is Trump's fault. 

[thegeneral 3,121]

5 hours ago, Baker Boy said:

Economist Harry Dent predicts stock market crash worse than 2008 crisis: The ‘bubble of all bubbles’

'Artificial' stimulus has delayed the inevitable 'big crash,' Dent tells Fox News Digital in new interview

https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/economist-harry-dent-predicts-stock-market-crash-worse-2008-crisis-bubble-bubbles

This Dent guy is wrong a lot

“His 2011 book goes on to suggest consumer spending will begin to plummet in 2012 with the Dow bottoming out somewhere between 3,000 and 5,600 in 2014. After hitting bottom, stocks will experience a mini-rally in 2015–2017 before falling into a final bottom during the 2019–2023 period, when the 45–50 age group troughs because the U.S. birth rate reached its own low in 1973.[6] The Dow Jones ultimately doubled in that timeframe.[1]

In 2012 the "Dent Tactical Advantage ETF," symbol DENT, was de-listed having consistently under-performed the market for three years.[7]”

I also think a recession is coming as well. But he’s making me rethink my position.

 

[thegeneral 3,121]

AAPL carrying people today. 

[thegeneral 3,121]

Insane run

[edjr 6,580]

'Black Swan' investor sees the S&P 500 jumping another 12% — followed by the worst crash since 1929

Quote

 

A "Black Swan" investor expects the S&P 500 to climb another 12% and breach 6,000 points for the first time — and then suffer its worst crash since the Great Depression.

Mark Spitznagel, the founder and chief of Universa Investments, told Business Insider in an email:

"I've been saying this for a year and a half because people got 2022 so incredibly wrong (we're not in the 70s!). The Fed recklessly popped the greatest credit bubble in human history and now as people realize that the Fed needs to about-face, they're going to get increasingly juked the other way in a face-ripping rally. At the point of euphoria — which is coming — the high will be in and the market will crash worse than the global financial crisis."

He added: "What matters more than my views on this are how Universa's clients are positioned for it — for both a face-ripping rally and for the worst crash since 1929."

Universa specializes in protecting portfolios against extreme and unpredictable "tail risks" in markets. The firm's scientific advisor is Nassim Taleb, the author of "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable."

The S&P has soared by nearly 30% from its October lows to trade at record highs of more than 5,300 points. Investors have piled into stocks like Nvidia — up over 150% since the start of this year — as they wager Big Tech will be big winners from the artificial intelligence boom.

Stocks have also benefited from interest-rate cuts and unprecedented amounts of government stimulus during the pandemic. They've continued to climb despite the Federal Reserve hiking rates from nearly zero to north of 5% since 2022 to combat inflation.

Spitznagel has repeatedly warned that too much easy money inflated asset and credit bubbles. He expects those bubbles to burst as steeper interest costs squeeze consumers and businesses and cause the national debt to balloon even faster.

'Tinderbox time bomb'
The Universa chief told BI in March that ebullient investors were ignoring signs of trouble and assuming the market would keep climbing. He predicted stocks would keep rising, but said they could crash later this year and a recession might set in once the bubble bursts.

Spitznagel has previously raised the alarm on a "tinderbox time bomb," saying that efforts to stamp out crashes and recessions had paved the way for a greater catastrophe down the line. He's likened it to firefighters putting out smaller wildfires too early, leaving vast amounts of dry wood to fuel a far greater inferno in the future.

The author of "Safe Haven: Investing for Financial Storms" has been preparing for the worst for decades — a difficult approach as it requires enduring small losses on most days in anticipation of a massive gain at some unknown point in the future.

"It's like you're playing the piano for 10 years and you still can't play 'Chopsticks,'" Spitznagel told The New Yorker in 2002, "and the only thing you have to keep you going is the belief that one day you'll wake up and play like Rachmaninoff." 

 

Ride it while it's good. 

[thegeneral 3,121]

7 minutes ago, edjr said:

'Black Swan' investor sees the S&P 500 jumping another 12% — followed by the worst crash since 1929

Ride it while it's good. 

Predict a black swan event every year eventually there’s a dip!

[edjr 6,580]

2 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

Predict a black swan event every year eventually there’s a dip!

Nah. The stock market will go up forever and never go back down. 

[thegeneral 3,121]

4 minutes ago, edjr said:

Nah. The stock market will go up forever and never go back down. 

It will def go down and then it will go back up. These dudes you are posting all the time are just bullshet artists. When it eventually goes down they are like “see I told you”! 

They are like fantasy football writers who predict crazy things, get one out of 10 right then only repost that

[edjr 6,580]

1 minute ago, thegeneral said:

It will def go down and then it will go back up. These dudes you are posting all the time are just bullshet artists. When it eventually goes down they are like “see I told you”! 

They are like fantasy football writers who predict crazy things, get one out of 10 right then only repost that

Things take time. Nothing is certain. Curious to see what Powell says/does today

[thegeneral 3,121]

7 minutes ago, edjr said:

Things take time. Nothing is certain. Curious to see what Powell says/does today

The market goes up, it goes down, it goes up again higher than it did before. These black swan dudes just want your money like the next guy.

[Jose M 125]

16 minutes ago, edjr said:

Things take time. Nothing is certain. Curious to see what Powell says/does today

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-live-fed-chair-powell-speaks-after-june-interest-rate-decision

[Hardcore troubadour 15,267]

Pretty amazing how dependent the stock market is on what the pseudo government does.  Whatever happened to building a better mouse trap? 

[thegeneral 3,121]

17 minutes ago, Jose M said:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-live-fed-chair-powell-speaks-after-june-interest-rate-decision

JP loves dropping the turd in the punch bowl then hops onto his PJ to go to Aspen

[lickin_starfish 1,919]

 

[thegeneral 3,121]

To the moon 

[Gepetto 1,354]

I'm seeing I have a 17% gain since Jan. 1st, 2024.

[Cdub100 3,887]

33 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

I'm seeing I have a 17% gain since Jan. 1st, 2024.

Gonna keep going until a pivot....

[thegeneral 3,121]

AAPL you beautiful bastard. The world’s richest company up 30% over past 3 months. Crazy. 

[thegeneral 3,121]

This AI crap going to be buying my vacation home in Bend. God bless America!!

 

[easilyscan 912]

10 hours ago, thegeneral said:

This AI crap going to be buying my vacation home in Bend. God bless America!!

 

I'll drink to that!

For me it's been long-term holdings in Apple, google, Nvidia, SOXL & a couple non-AI winners, First Solar, & Eli Lilly

My defensive side is thinking AI is getting a little bubbly. Apple had been stuck in a range between $170 and $190 for about 2.5 years.

In spite of huge share buybacks over that time, the top and bottom lines have been flat.  Seemingly all it took to break out of that was an recent announcement regarding its AI strategy. 

(Apple Intelligence) up approximately $40 over the past month. 

 

 

 

 

 

[thegeneral 3,121]

23 minutes ago, easilyscan said:

I'll drink to that!

For me it's been long-term holdings in Apple, google, Nvidia, SOXL & a couple non-AI winners, First Solar, & Eli Lilly

My defensive side is thinking AI is getting a little bubbly. Apple had been stuck in a range between $170 and $190 for about 2.5 years.

In spite of huge share buybacks over that time, the top and bottom lines have been flat.  Seemingly all it took to break out of that was an recent announcement regarding its AI strategy. 

(Apple Intelligence) up approximately $40 over the past month. 

It has to be bubbly at this point…but I have thought that for months now. Have shaved 10% off of AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, GOOG over past 1/2 year only to see them continue to blast off.

I have the biggest amount of safe money I have had in awhile but these bad boys keep expanding. Lets hope it all doesn’t go titts up, but if it does I have a little powder ready to go!!!

I need to pick an abandon ship number as well but don’t want to even think about it.

[easilyscan 912]

19 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

I have the biggest amount of safe money I have had in awhile but these bad boys keep expanding. 

There's a silver lining to that. I was considering buying another home sometime in 2022. Because of that, I took a little bit off the table, and started taking all dividends in cash mid 2020.

By November 2021, the ADB in my Fidelity cash account was about 128K. I made $1.05 in dividends that month, because the interest rate was 1- 100th of 1 percent.

Today it's paying just under 5%, so at least your safe money is doing something for you. 

[thegeneral 3,121]

All time highs again

Non-tech getting in on it as well. 

[lod001 1,344]

On 7/12/2024 at 3:04 PM, thegeneral said:

All time highs again

Non-tech getting in on it as well. 

Melt up in progress & steepening. Trump surge in polls adding to the gains. Trump is $. If Trump is elected we could hit S&P 7k. If we hit that, I sell everything.

[thegeneral 3,121]

11 minutes ago, lod001 said:

Melt up in progress & steepening. Trump surge in polls adding to the gains. Trump is $. If Trump is elected we could hit S&P 7k. If we hit that, I sell everything.

Stock market has killed in since 2010. We have had socialists in charge like 3/4 of the time since then. 

Its going to take a big dump soon because its due regardless.

Good luck tho and enjoy the gains while we have em!

[lod001 1,344]

41 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

Stock market has killed in since 2010. We have had socialists in charge like 3/4 of the time since then. 

Its going to take a big dump soon because its due regardless.

Good luck tho and enjoy the gains while we have em!

That should make you realize that who is POTUS doesn't matter. We are gonna collapse in 2025 regardless of who is in the WH. We won't see the highs that are established, pre 2025 bust, for a long time. People are going to get destroyed and many will sell near the bottom.

[Cdub100 3,887]

Still holding and waiting for that first rate cut before selling.

[easilyscan 912]

5 hours ago, lod001 said:

That should make you realize that who is POTUS doesn't matter. We are gonna collapse in 2025 regardless of who is in the WH. We won't see the highs that are established, pre 2025 bust, for a long time. People are going to get destroyed and many will sell near the bottom.

I don't discount anything. With that being said, I'd love to hear more details about why you think we're going to collapse in 2025. 

 

[lod001 1,344]

2 hours ago, easilyscan said:

I don't discount anything. With that being said, I'd love to hear more details about why you think we're going to collapse in 2025. 

 

People I follow on X. Contrarian macro strategist David Hunter, (who called S&P 6000 back in 2023 when everyone was saying sell, "we are going to 3500" Like this idiot below.) Tom Lee and the rest of wall street, only recently started talking S&P 6000. Hunter has upped his to S&P 7k)  and Elliot Wave guy, Avi Gilburt. Both have a melt up (which is happening) followed by a massive selloff. When 2 guys who analyze the market 2 different ways and come to the same conclusion, I'm gonna listen closely.

 

[GutterBoy 2,899]

I bought into that Eliot wave crap in 2009 and lost a ton of money.  Fock that guy.

[Gepetto 1,354]

3 hours ago, lod001 said:

People I follow on X. Contrarian macro strategist David Hunter, (who called S&P 6000 back in 2023 when everyone was saying sell, "we are going to 3500" Like this idiot below.) Tom Lee and the rest of wall street, only recently started talking S&P 6000. Hunter has upped his to S&P 7k)  and Elliot Wave guy, Avi Gilburt. Both have a melt up (which is happening) followed by a massive selloff. When 2 guys who analyze the market 2 different ways and come to the same conclusion, I'm gonna listen closely.

 

From S&P of 4600 he predicted a 20% drop. It went up 22%. 

[thegeneral 3,121]

This has been a banner year. No need to get greedy. Take a bit off the table.

[easilyscan 912]

14 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

From S&P of 4600 he predicted a 20% drop. It went up 22%. 

Interesting. If time allows, I'll state a few of my concerns tomorrow. 

Regards 

[GutterBoy 2,899]

7 hours ago, thegeneral said:

This has been a banner year. No need to get greedy. Take a bit off the table.

Met with my guy yesterday, booked some gains, reallocated to take advantage of likely rate drops coming.

[lod001 1,344]

12 hours ago, Gepetto said:

From S&P of 4600 he predicted a 20% drop. It went up 22%. 

Yep. He's a loser. JP Morgan trash. Not someone to take advice from. 

If I am not mistaken, the down market starts at the 1st rate cut. David Hunter says this time is different. It will come but not at the 1st rate cut.

[Gepetto 1,354]

I just moved all of my Roth 401K out of mutual funds to safe investments.

[lod001 1,344]

2 hours ago, Gepetto said:

I just moved all of my Roth 401K out of mutual funds to safe investments.

Not a horrible move. A year from now markets will probably be a lot lower. 

[easilyscan 912]

Have any of you that are bearish ever used the following ?

VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX)

On nothing more than a gut feeling, I bought 300 shares around $14 sometime in December 2019.

By mid January (Plandemic) it was up to $36 and I sold. That turned out to be too early, as it got to around $60 not so long after. 

I tried it again 2 or 3 times over the following couple of years and lost almost everything I gained on the first trade.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[JuneJuly 193]

[RLLD 4,200]

On 7/18/2024 at 9:43 PM, easilyscan said:

Have any of you that are bearish ever used the following ?

VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX)

On nothing more than a gut feeling, I bought 300 shares around $14 sometime in December 2019.

By mid January (Plandemic) it was up to $36 and I sold. That turned out to be too early, as it got to around $60 not so long after. 

I tried it again 2 or 3 times over the following couple of years and lost almost everything I gained on the first trade.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I am patiently watching this.

Right now the bigs capex seems to be absorbing some AI-related investiture, and the folks I talk to are not yet sure how to assess the potential ROI for it.....