Stock Market bubble - will crash

[Horseman 2,683]

46 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

Zero because I do dca. I also have a little on the side for big dips.

Just to be clear I was having a conversation about the market after a rate cut. The other jumped being an ahole about why a buy and hold guy would care. I explain why a someone would care and now you're jumping in about dcaing.

I post my winners and losers here. I don't pretend I win every trade like most people do here.

I buy Bitcoin every Wednesday. I auto contribute to my ira and Roth IRA every two weeks. I auto contribute and buy into my HSA every two weeks. So yes I do DCA

I'm currently building a high yield dividend portfolio for cash flow. 

I also have another account I play trade with. 

 

I like to read what other people are doing and thinking in this thread. But sometimes... Dang y'all make it hard 

Good post. You said "why would I be buying now"   Turns out you are buying now. 

[easilyscan 970]

19 hours ago, WhiteWonder said:

Recently bought a bunch of United Health in my IRA around $275. Decent dividend for a stock with 100%+ upside. 

nothing I own is really down since they dropped biden like a bad habit. A few are a little stagnant but it’s really hard to complain.

I put UNH in a watch list intending to buy it, but never followed through. You picked them up at a very nice price. Congrats

In my taxable account, the only stock that I own a significant amount of that's done poorly on the year is CROX

I've been adding shares under $80 

 

In the option account, Wendy's has been a major drag. Sitting on 3000 shares @ an average cost of $11.99 & it continues to drift down. 

No one likes losses, but it does show how selling calls can limit them. Had I just accumulated those 3000 shares & done nothing else, I'd be down $6990.00

Because of the call premiums, I'm 'only' down $4629.00 

 

[Cdub100 3,979]

What are we getting today .25? Market goes up or down? I think down as everyone bought last week.

[nobody 2,782]

0.25, but what matters is what they forecast for future cuts.

The market already priced a 0.25 cut in so the only thing that moves the market from that perspective is if they deviate from that.  But that would be a huge shock.  Obviously market sores if they go 0.5.  tanks of they're say nevermind and hold steady.

What isn't fully baked in is future cuts.  They never actually say what they're going to do but they craft carefully worded statements to indicate how dovish or hawkish they are.  If they come out on the dovish side, market will go up.  Hawkish... Down.

[The Real timschochet 7,124]

6 minutes ago, nobody said:

0.25, but what matters is what they forecast for future cuts.

The forecast is meaningless. Even if they promise more cuts coming up, the increased inflation caused by the tariffs will change their minds. 

[nobody 2,782]

12 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

The forecast is meaningless. Even if they promise more cuts coming up, the increased inflation caused by the tariffs will change their minds. 

If they came out and said they foresee cutting rates again this year, the market would go apeshìt.  That was the question that was asked essentially... How will today's fed meeting effect the market in the short term... He just isn't familiar enough with investing to know what he's asking, so he tied it to the immediate rate cut which is already priced in.

What your addressing is what might happen in reality.  And I'll leave it up to you to predict what TACO is going to do with tariffs and I wish you luck on that.

 

[WhiteWonder 2,859]

1 hour ago, Cdub100 said:

What are we getting today .25? Market goes up or down? I think down as everyone bought last week.

the actual announcement doesn't matter. Unless he had announced larger or smaller than expected.  .25 was widely expected for the last... month?  The markets have been up over that time frame so this was already baked in. You will maybe see the market finish red today and possibly red for the week because this is closer to "buy the rumor sell the news" concept. 

[The Real timschochet 7,124]

So .25 and promises to lower twice more by end of year. 
 

It works for me personally (been looking to refi an investment) but it’s gonna raise inflation even more.