Keeper league…Renfrow or G. Davis?

[makindollaz 40]

In one of my keeper leagues, traded Renfrow for G. Davis.  Full PPR, with bonus points for 40+ yard TD’s.

Most of the mocks I’ve seen have Renfrow going earlier, but figured it was worth a shot after how Davis finished last year.

Better QB in Buffalo, #2 option versus #3, better RB in Las Vegas.  I figured Renfrow was the safer/more consistent option, but he’s not a league winner come playoff time.  Davis does anything close to what he did against KC, and he could.

Would you have done the deal?

[weepaws 2,450]

Once the Raiders were able to get Adams.  Renfro won’t produce like he did last season, I would rather have Davis, good move.  

[Ray_T 587]

I dont know that I would for sure or not.  its close.

I think it is tough to expect Renfrow to repeat what he did last year.

he was the #2 WR (arguably #3) at the start of the year. but quickly beat out Edwards.

then Ruggs killed someone in a drunk driving accident and was turfed.   so he became the de facto #1 WR.

That said its not your typical #1 WR situation because the best receiver on the roster was Waller (their TE) so he may have been the #1 WR but he was the #2 option in the pass game.

Renfrows stats really lit up when Waller got hurt and he became the #1 option in the pass game for a few games.   I cant see that being  the norm going forward.  He will be the #2 WR and the #3 option in the pass game.  That said, he showed a lot of good things.  his catch rate on throws directed at him is VERY high.    so I dont see the volume completely dropping off for him.     His throw to percentage will drop but its gonna  be a smaller piece of a larger pie.

I predict 800-900 yards for the year.

Davis is a young man drafted in the 4th round.  hes had two seasons of aprox 600 yards with a monster game against KC in the playoff.   I see him taking a step forward, but I dont know that the step forward will be big enough to put him ahead of Renfrow next year.   I do think it may be close but I think Renfrow still outperforms him.   I think Davis is in the 700-850 yard range next year.  admittedly I look at that monster playoff game and wonder if he has more upside but its tough top predict that based on only one huge game.

Thing I like about Renfrow his catch rate is sky high.  like close to 75% of all balls thrown his direction are caught.  Davis is closer to 50% which (to me) makes him more risky.

what I suspect is that Davis has a higher ceiling and lower floor than Renfrow but the two players have reasonably similar value.

[weepaws 2,450]

No way will Renfro have 9 td rec, and he won’t have 100 plus rec, Davis is good for 6-plus tds, I think his workload will increase.  

Adams is going to destroy any of Renfro high end value.  You take Davis. 

[makindollaz 40]

17 minutes ago, weepaws said:

No way will Renfro have 9 td rec, and he won’t have 100 plus rec, Davis is good for 6-plus tds, I think his workload will increase.  

Adams is going to destroy any of Renfro high end value.  You take Davis. 

This is ultimately why I did the deal.  I don’t see any way Renfrow repeats his 2021, but  Davis likely will do better.  I just feel like his ceiling is way higher.

[DocNiner 44]

There's Davante Adams for the Raiders and Stefon Diggs for the Bills. Both top notch #1WRs. As to which of Renfrow or Gabriel Davis you'd like to retain I say it's clearly Gabriel Davis. I say that because of their respective QBs. Josh Allen is head and shoulders above Derek Carr and that being said it clearly,IMO, makes Gabriel Davis the one you want. He should top 1,000 yds this year and somewhere between 7-9 tds.

[Ray_T 587]

1 hour ago, DocNiner said:

There's Davante Adams for the Raiders and Stefon Diggs for the Bills. Both top notch #1WRs. As to which of Renfrow or Gabriel Davis you'd like to retain I say it's clearly Gabriel Davis. I say that because of their respective QBs. Josh Allen is head and shoulders above Derek Carr and that being said it clearly,IMO, makes Gabriel Davis the one you want. He should top 1,000 yds this year and somewhere between 7-9 tds.

over 1000 yards?  based on what?

dude has never had more than 600 yards.   I see no reason why he cant improve on that.  hes shown some potential and some of the other receivers who also got 500-600 yards last year wont be back so there should be some more yards to go around but I'm not sure I'm prepared to draft him when the 1000 yard WR's are going.... not without some solid rationale explained to me.

 

for now, I'll draft him when 800 yard WR's are going and hope he provides that 1000 yard upside.  If that means I dont get him, so be it.

 

[Bier Meister 1,512]

I am also in the camp that believes Renfrow's numbers will decrease, however, I think that each week two of Adams, Waller, Renfrow will have solid ff production.  Which two will depend on the defense and mismatches created

[polecatt 399]

If I'm looking for a guy to be in my starting line up most weeks, I'm probably taking Renfrow.

If I'm looking for a guy to come off the bench a few times and hopefully have a big game, it's Davis

[TBayXXXVII 2,104]

I think the Waller being injured issue isn't as big a deal as it's being made out.  In the first 6 games of the season, Renfrow averages were: 7.2 targets, 5.2 receptions, 56.8 yards, and 0.3 TD's per game.  That's with everyone there... Waller, Ruggs, Edwards, Zay Jones, and Renfrow.  Waller missed game 7, Renfrow had 7 receptions for 58 yards that game.  That was Ruggs' last game.  Waller was back for games 9-12.  In those 4 games, Renfrow averaged 7.8 targets, 6.5 receptions, 64.8 yards, and 0.5 TD's.  Waller then missed the next 5 games.  In those 5 games, Renfrow averaged 8.2 targets, 7 receptions, 73.4 yards, and 0.6 TD's per game.  The numbers aren't all that drastically different... and you have to remember, no more Ruggs either, so it's not like it was only Waller being out the aided in the increase of production.

Fast forward to this year and insert Davante Adams, but you're removing Ruggs as well as Zay Jones.  I think the net result is more throwing and a more efficient offense.  I think they score more points and by proxy, have longer drives.  I think you can count on Waller missing 3 or 4 games as he enters his age 30 season.  I can see Carr reaching 650-675 pass attempts.  Over the last 4 seasons, Carr is completing 68.7% of his passes at a clip of 7.7 ypa.  At that rate, for a 660 pass attempts, that puts him at 453 completions for 5,082 yards and 27 TD's.  That's just Carr hitting his 4-year average with no increase in production even with the addition of Adams.  He could be be in the 35 TD area.  There's plenty for there for Waller, Adams, and Renfrow.  I can easily see Renfrow at 95 for 1100 and 8.  A drop, sure, but miniscule.  It's a drop from 270 to 261 points.  I think he even has a chance at bigger numbers if teams are going to focus more on Adams and Waller.

I certainly see Davis' numbers going up, but I don't think they get as high as Renfrow.  The Bills know that the best way to maximize Josh Allen is to keep on the field.  They drafted a RB in the second round... not to replace Singletary, but add to him.  I don't think they want Allen rushing 122 times for 763 yards again.  I think they want a lot of that on their RB's.  I think Allen has his rushing cut in half.  The best way to do that is to throw less.  In that environment, I think Davis' ceiling will be limited.  I think Davis' ceiling is 75 receptions for 1000, and 9.

[weepaws 2,450]

2 hours ago, polecatt said:

If I'm looking for a guy to be in my starting line up most weeks, I'm probably taking Renfrow.

If I'm looking for a guy to come off the bench a few times and hopefully have a big game, it's Davis

With out Adams and without Waller returning from his injuries, the OP wouldn’t even think about asking this question. 

After his first two season Davis is avg 7.1 points per game 1/2 point ppr. 

After his first two seasons Renfro was avg 7.5 points per game 1/2 point Ppr  

Renfro benefited last season by having no other challengers on the Raiders last season, and now this season he’s going to go back being option three at best.   I think Davis is the better move going forward. 

 

[weepaws 2,450]

4 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I think the Waller being injured issue isn't as big a deal as it's being made out.  In the first 6 games of the season, Renfrow averages were: 7.2 targets, 5.2 receptions, 56.8 yards, and 0.3 TD's per game.  That's with everyone there... Waller, Ruggs, Edwards, Zay Jones, and Renfrow.  Waller missed game 7, Renfrow had 7 receptions for 58 yards that game.  That was Ruggs' last game.  Waller was back for games 9-12.  In those 4 games, Renfrow averaged 7.8 targets, 6.5 receptions, 64.8 yards, and 0.5 TD's.  Waller then missed the next 5 games.  In those 5 games, Renfrow averaged 8.2 targets, 7 receptions, 73.4 yards, and 0.6 TD's per game.  The numbers aren't all that drastically different... and you have to remember, no more Ruggs either, so it's not like it was only Waller being out the aided in the increase of production.

Fast forward to this year and insert Davante Adams, but you're removing Ruggs as well as Zay Jones.  I think the net result is more throwing and a more efficient offense.  I think they score more points and by proxy, have longer drives.  I think you can count on Waller missing 3 or 4 games as he enters his age 30 season.  I can see Carr reaching 650-675 pass attempts.  Over the last 4 seasons, Carr is completing 68.7% of his passes at a clip of 7.7 ypa.  At that rate, for a 660 pass attempts, that puts him at 453 completions for 5,082 yards and 27 TD's.  That's just Carr hitting his 4-year average with no increase in production even with the addition of Adams.  He could be be in the 35 TD area.  There's plenty for there for Waller, Adams, and Renfrow.  I can easily see Renfrow at 95 for 1100 and 8.  A drop, sure, but miniscule.  It's a drop from 270 to 261 points.  I think he even has a chance at bigger numbers if teams are going to focus more on Adams and Waller.

I certainly see Davis' numbers going up, but I don't think they get as high as Renfrow.  The Bills know that the best way to maximize Josh Allen is to keep on the field.  They drafted a RB in the second round... not to replace Singletary, but add to him.  I don't think they want Allen rushing 122 times for 763 yards again.  I think they want a lot of that on their RB's.  I think Allen has his rushing cut in half.  The best way to do that is to throw less.  In that environment, I think Davis' ceiling will be limited.  I think Davis' ceiling is 75 receptions for 1000, and 9.

The Raiders drafted a rb that’s even better then the one the Bills drafted, I think they want to improve their rushing game.  I think they drafted him to replace Jacobs who they didn’t pick up his option, but to also add more durability, and better results in their run game.  

[Ray_T 587]

2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Fast forward to this year and insert Davante Adams, but you're removing Ruggs as well as Zay Jones.  I think the net result is more throwing and a more efficient offense.  I think they score more points and by proxy, have longer drives.  I think you can count on Waller missing 3 or 4 games as he enters his age 30 season.  I can see Carr reaching 650-675 pass attempts.  Over the last 4 seasons, Carr is completing 68.7% of his passes at a clip of 7.7 ypa.  At that rate, for a 660 pass attempts, that puts him at 453 completions for 5,082 yards and 27 TD's.  That's just Carr hitting his 4-year average with no increase in production even with the addition of Adams.  He could be be in the 35 TD area.  There's plenty for there for Waller, Adams, and Renfrow.  I can easily see Renfrow at 95 for 1100 and 8.  A drop, sure, but miniscule.  It's a drop from 270 to 261 points.  I think he even has a chance at bigger numbers if teams are going to focus more on Adams and Waller.

well, with the addition of Adams, I think Carr throws more deep balls.  

so the TD will go up, the yards per throw will go up a bit and the completion percentage will go down.

but in the end, the net result should be an increase in production for the offense.

More TD.  more total yards.   less stalled drives.

I think Renfrow's use will be a bit different.  if you look at his high catch percentage, I think he becomes the possession receiver in this offense.   third and 5, hes a great target because he catches nearly everything they throw at him.

I also think that last year most of the catches were spread across the offense.  Now I think it becomes a 3 headed attack through the air.  Adams gets 35-40% of the throws, Waller gets 25-30% and Renfrow likely in the 15-20% range.   I do think his yards drop a bit, but his TD's go up slightly.   but the RB's may see a spike in TD's for their stats.  I"m not sure how that breaks out exactly yet.

[TBayXXXVII 2,104]

Raiders just traded Bryan Edwards to the Falcons.  I don't have Twitter, but I'm sure someone will post it... but in either case, I think Renfrow gets a bump from this.

 

Also, to address to the TD from the OP, neither Davis (and Allen) or Renfrow (and Carr), are likely to really benefit from the 40+ yard TD bonus.  Both Renfrow and Davis, in their career, have only 2 TD's of 40 yards or more.  Last year, Allen only had 1 TD pass of 40 yards and Carr only threw 3 (2 to Ruggs).

[AxeElf 787]

2 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Raiders just traded Bryan Edwards to the Falcons.

Pretty huge for Edwards; he'll be a sleeper with a lot of upside.

[weepaws 2,450]

I hope that the Raiders will be able to replace his two rec per game last season.  

I don’t see this move helping Renfro at all, nor so I see this move helping the Falcons much, Edwards has played in 29 games and has 45 rec.  

Robinson and Cole should easily be able to handle that.  

[Super Cubs 132]

On 5/8/2022 at 9:58 AM, makindollaz said:

In one of my keeper leagues, traded Renfrow for G. Davis.  Full PPR, with bonus points for 40+ yard TD’s.

Most of the mocks I’ve seen have Renfrow going earlier, but figured it was worth a shot after how Davis finished last year.

Better QB in Buffalo, #2 option versus #3, better RB in Las Vegas.  I figured Renfrow was the safer/more consistent option, but he’s not a league winner come playoff time.  Davis does anything close to what he did against KC, and he could.

Would you have done the deal?

No disrespect but if your down to either Renfrow or Davis as a keeper I think you may have bigger problems.  Not to take anything away from Renfrow, but he had a career year that I don't see him repeating.  Davis is more of a homerun hitter that does not hit may homeruns. I would happily welcome either to my bench. Just not sure I would want either as weekly starters at this time.

 

[makindollaz 40]

4 hours ago, Super Cubs said:

No disrespect but if your down to either Renfrow or Davis as a keeper I think you may have bigger problems.  Not to take anything away from Renfrow, but he had a career year that I don't see him repeating.  Davis is more of a homerun hitter that does not hit may homeruns. I would happily welcome either to my bench. Just not sure I would want either as weekly starters at this time.

 

We keep 7 from the previous year, and start 2 RB’s, 2 WR’s & 3 FLX.  Davis will be my 3rd FLX starter, so essentially a 7th round pick in redraft.  12 team league.

[weepaws 2,450]

Good move OP

[makindollaz 40]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Good move OP

In that league my other keepers are Kamara, Gibson, Jacobs, McLaurin, Hollywood Brown & Mooney.  My team is good, but there are at least 2, maybe 3 teams that are better.  That was part of my thought in swapping Renfrow for Davis…Renfrow wasn’t going to push me even with those other teams, but Davis’s upside is high enough that he could if he blows up.

[Ray_T 587]

On 5/15/2022 at 7:26 AM, Super Cubs said:

No disrespect but if your down to either Renfrow or Davis as a keeper I think you may have bigger problems.  Not to take anything away from Renfrow, but he had a career year that I don't see him repeating.  Davis is more of a homerun hitter that does not hit may homeruns. I would happily welcome either to my bench. Just not sure I would want either as weekly starters at this time.

 

I get where you are coming from.   on one side, with waller out and the #1 WR getting turfed, he became the #1 option in their passing game.  that wont happen again (at least not in the near future)

but at the same time, when you see a catch percentage that high, its not atypical for the coach or GM to look at that and say.... we gotta throw to this guy more often.

seriously hes got one of the highest catch to throw ratios in the league.   its usually a sign of an emerging breakout when the catch ratio is high like that.

so I dont see his volume dropping off nearly as much as everyone is predicting.   he should still be rostered in all standard and PPR leagues.   hes a legit #2 WR on what is likely to be a very good offense.

yardage may drop a bit, but not a lot.   I think the addition of Adams will be the larger factor but you cant ignore his catch rate.  when a player catches nearly everything you throw to him, that usually means you need to throw to that player more.  not less.

That said, the team just ditched Edwards, so I think this move will offset any losses by the addition of Adams.

This likely means the pass game is gonna be a 3 man show.  Adams, Waller, and Renfrow.    now that Edwards is gone, I think he comes pretty close to last years numbers.  I think this move will roughly offset the losses when Adams came in.  Those yards and looks need to be split among the remaining receivers.

its now looking like he may have another good year.

[weepaws 2,450]

The biggest hit to Renfro will be the 9 tds he scored last season.  

I think with the draft pick of Rb White and The addiction of Carr buddy Adams will hurt that one important stat.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,104]

On 5/13/2022 at 6:49 PM, AxeElf said:

Pretty huge for Edwards; he'll be a sleeper with a lot of upside.

In theory, I agree with you.  A lot of what I read on Edwards was very positive, but it seems that it's not translating on the field.  I have a hard time believing it's a team issue... but I believe the talent is there.  So, if it is just time, then yeah... he could be a sleeper.  That said, I'm not so sure the talent at the QB position in Atlanta will be able to maximize his talent and/or bring out his best.  I'm willing to take a late flyer on him, but I'll only be cautious optimistic.  I will give him only a short leash though.  The Raiders used a 3rd round pick and got virtually nothing for him.  They basically gave him away.  I believe they packaged Edwards and a 7th for a 5th.  That's not very encouraging.

[Ray_T 587]

9 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I'm not so sure the talent at the QB position in Atlanta will be able to maximize his talent and/or bring out his best

This is really the question on Edwards.

keep in mind some WR's are still taking 2-3 years before they breakout.   I wouldnt give up on him yet, but like you, I would find it hard to bet on him with the QB hes now playing with.  Definitely a step down from what he played with last year.

[Phil Simms 11 127]

Edwards will be a DND for me, lots of positive press on him in years past but no production. Moving to Atlanta isn’t changing any of that. 
 

I’m buying Renfrow - been hoping people overreact to the Adams trade. Renfrow will still get plenty of volume and I’m not big as big on Waller. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,104]

1 hour ago, Phil Simms 11 said:

I’m buying Renfrow - been hoping people overreact to the Adams trade. Renfrow will still get plenty of volume and I’m not big as big on Waller. 

This is where I'm at also.

[weepaws 2,450]

Last season Renfro based on avg 1/2 points ppr was a mid wr 2.  Looks like he’s being bought as a low wr2, high wr3.  

He avg 12 points per game last season in 1/2 point ppr, I’m predicting he’ll drop down to 10 points per game at best , making him more of a low wr3.   

 

[jrokh 567]

2 hours ago, Phil Simms 11 said:

Edwards will be a DND for me, lots of positive press on him in years past but no production. Moving to Atlanta isn’t changing any of that. 
 

I’m buying Renfrow - been hoping people overreact to the Adams trade. Renfrow will still get plenty of volume and I’m not big as big on Waller. 

Agreed at the right price. Last year he went undrafted in my half ppr BML. FF Calc has him currently at 70 overall. No interest at that price point, but I have a feeling he will be there come draft time in the 10th rd range. I would gladly take him there.

[weepaws 2,450]

Yeah he’s listed at number 70, he’s currently ahead of, 

M Williams #74 , and A Robinson # 79, and Jeudy& Sutton 81&84, St Brown #98, and JuJu # 112, don’t like him ahead of any of those wr 12 team 1/2 ppr. 

 

[Ray_T 587]

8 hours ago, weepaws said:

Looks like he’s being bought as a low wr2, high wr3.

if hes your WR3 I'd suggest you did well.

Low end WR2 isnt totally out of line but I dont think I'd pay more for him than that.

 

[weepaws 2,450]

He’s going to lose ff points simply based on tds.  He won’t score more then 4-5 tds.  If that happens and he as the same amount of yards and rec he’ll drop down to a low wr3.  

Im thinking a high wr4 low wr3.  Adams is going to demand a big about of targets, and most seem down when it comes to Waller , I think if he’s healthy he should rebound and have a very good season, and I just have a feeling the new staff might try to get K Drake more involved in the passing game this next season.  

We shall see.  

[Gepetto 976]

I would choose Gabriel Davis over Renfrow too.

[weepaws 2,450]

Renfrow just received a nice bonus.  

[weepaws 2,450]

Davis 1/ Renfro 0.