Is there any value to this cancel out?

[cyclone24 1,912]

So my tight in position has been a disaster and I grabbed Hunter Henry for the week. But my opponent is starting Tua against a dreadful Pittsburgh defense. Is there any value in grabbing Giesicki instead and hoping that if Tua throws let’s say three touchdowns that one of them goes to him and sort of cancels it out in a position I’m expecting almost nothing from him at this point? 

[jrokh 608]

No, you should grab the TE that scores more points regardless of who your opponent is playing...

[weepaws 3,158]

I think Giesicki would be the better pick despite who the other owner has at Qb.  

 

[AxeElf 787]

With Tua back, Gesicki goes from a frequent dumpoff option back to a blocker.

[Ray_T 740]

2 hours ago, jrokh said:

No, you should grab the TE that scores more points regardless of who your opponent is playing...

the best player should always be played.  I agree.

if its a case where you are looking at 2 players who are about equal in terms of projected point production on the wire and one can be used to cancel, then you take that guy and hope he does cancel a TD.

this happens like 1% of the time but it does happen.  

[LaChup 229]

The only combo that works 100% of the time is that if you are playing the team with Kamara, trade your whole team for Taysom Hill. Guaranteed win.

[cavern 70]

11 hours ago, Ray_T said:

the best player should always be played.  I agree.

if its a case where you are looking at 2 players who are about equal in terms of projected point production on the wire and one can be used to cancel, then you take that guy and hope he does cancel a TD.

this happens like 1% of the time but it does happen.  

not sure i even agree with this.  if the 2 players in question get 3-60-1 it does not matter that the one TE's TD came from the opponents QB.  I guess, if you really have a hunch that the QB and his TE will blow up you can do that, but the other TE could blow up too.

so, i tend to think of the cancel out theory as smoke and mirrors, but that's just me

[polecatt 474]

The "cancel out" thing doesn't make any sense.

It doesn't really matter which teams they play for, the one that scores the most points is who you want to start.

Unless you league specifically has some weird rule about this, it doesn't matter one bit

[TBayXXXVII 2,486]

42 minutes ago, cavern said:

not sure i even agree with this.  if the 2 players in question get 3-60-1 it does not matter that the one TE's TD came from the opponents QB.  I guess, if you really have a hunch that the QB and his TE will blow up you can do that, but the other TE could blow up too.

so, i tend to think of the cancel out theory as smoke and mirrors, but that's just me

 

34 minutes ago, polecatt said:

The "cancel out" thing doesn't make any sense.

It doesn't really matter which teams they play for, the one that scores the most points is who you want to start.

Unless you league specifically has some weird rule about this, it doesn't matter one bit

What I think he's talking about is when you're deciding between 2 guys who are similar, and it's a toss up.  I don't see a problem with the cancel out theory at that point.  Now, if you know that the two guys are both going to get 3 catches for 60 yards and a TD, then sure, it doesn't matter.  Though, I'm willing to guess that when setting their lineup, people don't know the future.

If I need a TE and my choice is between say, Freiermuth who's averaging 9.9 fpg and Everett who's averaging 9.7 and both are projected for 9.8 that day... I don't see an issue with taking the guy that my opponent has that TE's QB, in his lineup.

[jrokh 608]

One can ‘see’ whatever they wish, but the correct answer will always be to start the player you think will score more points, regardless of any other variables. Would you prefer your team total to be 120 or 121. For the week? 

[Hardcore troubadour 14,966]

This again?

[nobody 2,575]

Cancel out only works under certain criteria.  This situation doesn't qualify.

[jrokh 608]

23 minutes ago, nobody said:

Cancel out only works under certain criteria.  This situation doesn't qualify.

What Criteria would it be beneficial for your team to score less points?

[nobody 2,575]

10 minutes ago, jrokh said:

What Criteria would it be beneficial for your team to score less points?

Some of us don't always know who's going to score the most points.

[jrokh 608]

19 minutes ago, nobody said:

Some of us don't always know who's going to score the most points.

I don’t either, but you start who you think will score the most points. When would the criteria be beneficial to start the guy you think would score less points?

[AxeElf 787]

If your opponent's ace WR has a crappy QB, I would pick up that QB and start him, so that when he has a bad day, your opponent's WR will have a bad day too.

[jrokh 608]

Good one…

[LaChup 229]

I like up cancelling. Goff to Hock a couple weeks back was magical.

[nobody 2,575]

1 hour ago, jrokh said:

I don’t either, but you start who you think will score the most points. When would the criteria be beneficial to start the guy you think would score less points?

The first criteria is you don't have a good idea who will score more points.

[cavern 70]

3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

 

What I think he's talking about is when you're deciding between 2 guys who are similar, and it's a toss up.  I don't see a problem with the cancel out theory at that point.  Now, if you know that the two guys are both going to get 3 catches for 60 yards and a TD, then sure, it doesn't matter.  Though, I'm willing to guess that when setting their lineup, people don't know the future.

If I need a TE and my choice is between say, Freiermuth who's averaging 9.9 fpg and Everett who's averaging 9.7 and both are projected for 9.8 that day... I don't see an issue with taking the guy that my opponent has that TE's QB, in his lineup.

that's fine, but choosing between 2 equal projections by "cancel out" is not any better of a way than flipping a coin.  no, noone can see the future, so everything is based on projections at the time the decision is made.  one should try to pick the player they think will have more points.  saying that a player will have more points because some random dude has the player's QB in a fantasy lineup makes no sense

[jrokh 608]

29 minutes ago, nobody said:

The first criteria is you don't have a good idea who will score more points.

What are the other criteria? I would love to know how your opponent’s team could affect the point total of one of your players…

[weepaws 3,158]

3 hours ago, jrokh said:

One can ‘see’ whatever they wish, but the correct answer will always be to start the player you think will score more points, regardless of any other variables. Would you prefer your team total to be 120 or 121. For the week? 

Henry or Giesicki who scores the most ff points this weekend? 

[cavern 70]

1 minute ago, jrokh said:

What are the other criteria? I would love to know how your opponent’s team could affect the point total of one of your players…

i think people are just coming up with ways to make a decision.

imo, the "cancel out theory" was originally thought up by someone thinking they were being very clever, but they really weren't...

[weepaws 3,158]

1 minute ago, cavern said:

i think people are just coming up with ways to make a decision.

imo, the "cancel out theory" was originally thought up by someone thinking they were being very clever, but they really weren't...

Lol I agree, just ways to make a decision. 

[cavern 70]

1 minute ago, weepaws said:

Henry or Giesicki who scores the most ff points this weekend? 

according to the projections i tend to use (this site), henry will have 8.6 and giesicki will have 5

[LaChup 229]

7 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Henry or Giesicki who scores the most ff points this weekend? 

I have them cancelling each other out this week.

[jrokh 608]

8 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Henry or Giesicki who scores the most ff points this weekend? 

Since there is no NFL player named Giesicki, Henry is the easy call here. HTH…

[cavern 70]

(ignore)

[cavern 70]

4 minutes ago, LaChup said:

I have them cancelling each other out this week.

then, clearly, their QB's should be started

[nobody 2,575]

1 hour ago, jrokh said:

What are the other criteria? I would love to know how your opponent’s team could affect the point total of one of your players…

I'll write out the concepts for you when I get a chance.

[Ray_T 740]

6 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

 

What I think he's talking about is when you're deciding between 2 guys who are similar, and it's a toss up.  I don't see a problem with the cancel out theory at that point.  Now, if you know that the two guys are both going to get 3 catches for 60 yards and a TD, then sure, it doesn't matter.  Though, I'm willing to guess that when setting their lineup, people don't know the future.

If I need a TE and my choice is between say, Freiermuth who's averaging 9.9 fpg and Everett who's averaging 9.7 and both are projected for 9.8 that day... I don't see an issue with taking the guy that my opponent has that TE's QB, in his lineup.

you have correctly interpreted my comment.

you do not pick a player expected to score less points due to the cancel out theory.

but as I mentioned, if you are choosing between 2 players of equal value and equal projected scoring, for me the tiebreaker is the guy who will cancel your opponent.

what the cancel theory does is it ties your fate to that of your opponents QB.  if his QB goes off, usually all the WR/TE benefit from it.   so by getting your cancel out guy in there if his QB goes off its like an insurance policy of sorts.   the downside is if his QB sucks badly, so will your guy(probably)

 

[jrokh 608]

1 hour ago, nobody said:

I'll write out the concepts for you when I get a chance.

Don't bother, I already know with certainty that the Cancel Out Theory has the same utility as flipping a coin,Eeny, meeny, miny, moe, or having your two-year-old point to whichever one first. 

[LaChup 229]

Don't underestimate eeny, meeny, miny, moe. I've won plenty of games that way. It has one more metric than rock, paper, scissor and slightly more challenging.

[weepaws 3,158]

46 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

you have correctly interpreted my comment.

you do not pick a player expected to score less points due to the cancel out theory.

but as I mentioned, if you are choosing between 2 players of equal value and equal projected scoring, for me the tiebreaker is the guy who will cancel your opponent.

what the cancel theory does is it ties your fate to that of your opponents QB.  if his QB goes off, usually all the WR/TE benefit from it.   so by getting your cancel out guy in there if his QB goes off its like an insurance policy of sorts.   the downside is if his QB sucks badly, so will your guy(probably)

 

There is a second down side, the Qb has a great game, and the player you started doesn’t.  That does happen. 

[polecatt 474]

7 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

 

What I think he's talking about is when you're deciding between 2 guys who are similar, and it's a toss up.  I don't see a problem with the cancel out theory at that point.  Now, if you know that the two guys are both going to get 3 catches for 60 yards and a TD, then sure, it doesn't matter.  Though, I'm willing to guess that when setting their lineup, people don't know the future.

If I need a TE and my choice is between say, Freiermuth who's averaging 9.9 fpg and Everett who's averaging 9.7 and both are projected for 9.8 that day... I don't see an issue with taking the guy that my opponent has that TE's QB, in his lineup.

Okay, fine, but it still comes down to the same question...

Which TE will score me more points?

[LaChup 229]

What I have gathered from all this information is that Taysom Hill is the only TE worth his salt. He can cancel out your QB, RB, and TE. Rumor has it, he's been seen on the sidelines kicking into the nets on special occasions.

[easilyscan 870]

These guys are 'experts' so you know it's 100% accurate

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/start/hunter-henry-mike-gesicki.php?scoring=PPR

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/start/hunter-henry-mike-gesicki.php

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,486]

20 hours ago, polecatt said:

Okay, fine, but it still comes down to the same question...

Which TE will score me more points?

Of course, but you don't know who that is until the game is over.

[IMMensaMind 462]

On 10/20/2022 at 6:40 PM, cyclone24 said:

So my tight in position has been a disaster and I grabbed Hunter Henry for the week. But my opponent is starting Tua against a dreadful Pittsburgh defense. Is there any value in grabbing Giesicki instead and hoping that if Tua throws let’s say three touchdowns that one of them goes to him and sort of cancels it out in a position I’m expecting almost nothing from him at this point? 

There have been many different iterations of this question over time, and to me it always comes down to risk assessment. If you judge your team to be superior in other aspects, and have determined that Tua (in this case) is the wildcard that could shift the scoring balance to your opponent if he has a huge game, then you do as you're contemplating.

Conversely, if you think your lineup is inferior to your opponents, you're going to insert a TE with the highest ceiling, and hope - and that may very well not be Gesecki.

And even in scenarios like that, there are obvious exceptions (you wouldn't play Gesecki instead of Andrews, for instance - or even another TE you STRONGLY believe will have a good day: this decision is only reserved for uncertain situations).

[weepaws 3,158]

On 10/21/2022 at 10:54 AM, jrokh said:

Since there is no NFL player named Giesicki, Henry is the easy call here. HTH…

Wrong, next time it would be the better option to pick the player that scores the most ff points.  

Thanks.