Javonte Williams 2023

[IGotWorms 3,315]

26 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Which is why it's stunning the Broncos didn't draft a Rb, didn't sign an undrafted Rb, and haven't signed any big name vets... Hunt, Cook, Zeke, Fournette. 

Denver had 8 Rbs play last year, only 2 are still on the team - Williams and Tyler Badie.  Broncos list 4 Rbs on depth chart - Williams, Perine, Tony Jones Jr., Tyler Badie.

25 yo Tony Jones Jr. undrafted in 2020. Powerback played for Notre Dame. Signed by Saints, then Seattle, and now Denver (signed March).  2.4 yd career average and still hasn't scored a TD. 

23 yo Tyler Badie 2022 6th rd pick Ravens, waived preseason. Signed with Denver Week 18... got 1 carry, 1 rec, and 1 TD.  Pass catching back out of Missouri. 

Last but least...  27 yo Samaje Perine 2017 4th rd pick Redskins. Now on his 5th NFL team. Surprisingly decent receiver, despite 236 lbs. One thing to note he wasn't cut by the Bengals, but turned down their similar offer as Broncos.  Signed March.

So what is Denver thinking?  Turn a hobbled star and 3 bums, into a decent rotation? Perhaps waiting to see if that works, and ready to sign a big name vet if needed.?.  Don't think I want a part of any of this.

They must be confident in Javonte’s return. If they sign somebody significant over the next few weeks, that could show they’ve reevaluated 

[weepaws 2,460]

I would agree, I thought for sure even after picking up Perine that the Broncos would draft someone, or maybe resign M Gordon.  

But they didn’t, and Perine as a ff rb4 rb has some real good value.  

[GobbleDog 816]

4 hours ago, weepaws said:

Perine as a ff rb4 rb has some real good value.  

Didn't think I'd be a Perine cheerleader. But he's competing against 2 unproven Rbs and Williams who tore everything in his knee possible.  On a Peyton offense which can only get better.  And the fact that Bengals knew all about him and still thought worthy of a decent contract, rather than cut, says something. Even if his stats don't pop off the page (pass blocking skills maybe?). He has some receiving skills - which Sean Payton schemed a lot with Kamara.

9th, 10th rd... hard to argue Perine is a bad pick. Limited upside, but probably finishes higher than most other 10th+ rd Rbs. If he was younger, I'd be more bullish.  27?  Probably has grandkids.

[Mike FF Today 608]

This is encouraging...

 

[weepaws 2,460]

It is good news for J Williams and the Broncos, and anyone that owns him in keepers.  

But in redraft it makes things a little bit more messy.   I can’t wait to hear how he does in preseason games, and how he holds up.  Perine as a very good ADP, and I think he can be very solid in that offense.  

[League Champion 1,593]

I want to be on the Javonte train so bad but I just can't do it. In dynasty yes but redraft, I'm out. 

[Mike FF Today 608]

It sounds like we'll get a glimpse of Javonte in Pre-Season Week 2...

 

[GobbleDog 816]

1 hour ago, Mike FF Today said:

It sounds like we'll get a glimpse of Javonte in Pre-Season Week 2...

Gotta give him credit for such a quick recovery after tearing every part of the knee medically possible.

He's only moved up two spots from Rb 30 a month ago to Rb 28 now. If he has a great pre-season, he could very well be in the Rb 20-25 range... 6th round territory. Possibly 5th.?.

Still don't think the risk factor is being baked into that adp nearly enough. Adrien Peterson, Jamaal Charles.... the only two Rb's I know who lived up to their adp the following year off an acl. And those guys probably didn't tear everything Williams did. If he blows up, the dude is inhuman. God bless him.

[DaBeerz 88]

On 7/9/2023 at 11:56 AM, AxeElf said:

Too many other good options; I'm basically ignoring him unless I can get him for a dollar or two--and that's probably not happening, thanks to all my self-sacrificing leaguemates.

Exactly based on name recognition alone someone will overpay for him.

[Ray_T 591]

On 7/27/2023 at 5:35 PM, IGotWorms said:

They must be confident in Javonte’s return. If they sign somebody significant over the next few weeks, that could show they’ve reevaluated 

well, there were a ton of Free agent RB's on the open market.  so there was no real urgency to get a deal done.

Now that a couple have signed, they may be a bit more likely to take the plunge if they feel they need to.

but if they dont sign anyone, this does speak volumes to him and how his recovery has gone.

[Ray_T 591]

On 8/15/2023 at 3:08 PM, GobbleDog said:

Still don't think the risk factor is being baked into that adp nearly enough.

neither do I.   love the player.  just not THIS year.

[Mike FF Today 608]

Javonte saw 12 snaps and 7 touches in Denver's second pre-season game. A good showing and encouraging signs for his recovery. I'm still fading him at his current ADP but he's definitely trending in the right direction.

[weepaws 2,460]

I will take as a rb4.  I just don’t trust the situation.  

[Mike FF Today 608]

Broncos OC post Week 2 pre-season game. I wouldn't be counting on Javonte for to be in a lead back role to begin the season.

 

[weepaws 2,460]

I’ve notice a little bit of a rise in Perine ADP, he’s even a better value then he was before J Williams played.  

[GobbleDog 816]

Javonte Williams ppr rank

ESPN - 25  (early 6th)

Yahoo - 27

FantasyPros - 27

FFToday - 33  (late 8th)      I'm out regardless, but this makes the most sense.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

On 7/9/2023 at 10:58 AM, GobbleDog said:

If you've mock drafted you've seen rb's remaining in rd 7, then notice Javonte Williams. You ignore him, but rd 8 and Williams is still there. Rd 9... Williams.

Dude was fantastic before tearing "acl, lcl, and plc" with surgery in late October 2022. That's 10.7 months before week 1. Normal ACL is 9-12 months. Reports are no setbacks (unlike Dobbins) and looks sharp at drills. Sean Peyton will improve the offense, but definitely won't work Williams much the first half of season.

So he won't play much til Week 8ish and might never be good... but a cheap pick for potential second half star. What say ye Geeks?  Who's rolling the acl dice?

History does not bode well for RB's coming off ACL surgery.  Yeah, I get the discount - the 9th round pick, but it's still too high.  In the 9th round, you can get a flex player, potential starter, and possible sleeper turned star.  With Williams, you're going to get a guy whom you may actually never start... or start too late.  He's likely to miss multiple games.  If I were to pick him, I'd say he'd be my RB6 who I'd target in like round 14 or 15, just before I take my kicker and/or defense.

Keeper /dynasty league, I'm thinking 4th or 5th round.

[weepaws 2,460]

Since my last four picks are Qbs,TEs, Kicker, Def, not always in that order, a 9th rd pick of J Williams 14 team leagues is a very good spot.

By the ninth rd he should be my 5th rb, I would gladly take a shot, but I’m sure I’ll pass, because I’ll try to get Perine.   

[GobbleDog 816]

29 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

History does not bode well for RB's coming off ACL surgery.  Yeah, I get the discount - the 9th round pick, but it's still too high.

I started this thread back in early July when he occasionally fell to 9th or 10th. Now he's goes 6th.

Anyone drafting Williams will be happy the Broncos hired Chargers old oc - dink/dunk Lombardi who schemed Ekeler into 107 receptions. Still, he has to be on the field to benefit.  Makes me wonder if their pass-catching back Tyler Baddie doesn't ultimately become the one to own.

[kilroy69 994]

I took him in the 7th as my backup RB after I filled my first 2 spots. I am happy with that. If he can stay healthy that could be a steal. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

I started this thread back in early July when he occasionally fell to 9th or 10th. Now he's goes 6th.

Anyone drafting Williams will be happy the Broncos hired Chargers old oc - dink/dunk Lombardi who schemed Ekeler into 107 receptions. Still, he has to be on the field to benefit.  Makes me wonder if their pass-catching back Tyler Baddie doesn't ultimately become the one to own.

Yeah, I'm definitely not taking him with a pick that requires I start him.  That's not happening.  He may be fine, but history tells us he's going to disappoint this year.  If he has a couple of really good games out of the shoot, I'd trade high.

[GobbleDog 816]

18 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

He may be fine, but history tells us he's going to disappoint this year. 

Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles are the only two I can remember who lived up to adp the year off an acl. There might be more, but I can't name them.?. Seems unnecessarily risky in the 6th when there's decent Rbs who don't come with so much risk (less upside perhaps).  Two years removed, I'm in - I'll happily draft Mr. Dobbins.

The one risk I never take... the dreaded Achilles. I don't care how many years removed, I can't do it - looking at you Akers. The only Rb who went on to have much success after an achilles was Donta Foreman. That ain't saying much.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

29 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles are the only two I can remember who lived up to adp the year off an acl. There might be more, but I can't name them.?. Seems unnecessarily risky in the 6th when there's decent Rbs who don't come with so much risk (less upside perhaps).  Two years removed, I'm in - I'll happily draft Mr. Dobbins.

The one risk I never take... the dreaded Achilles. I don't care how many years removed, I can't do it - looking at you Akers. The only Rb who went on to have much success after an achilles was Donta Foreman. That ain't saying much.

Yup, agreed all around.

[Ray_T 591]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

The one risk I never take... the dreaded Achilles.

yeah agreed.   that and the Lis Franc Injuries.   Just terrible injuries for RB's.

[weepaws 2,460]

If I can get him in the 9/10 rd I’ll take him.  

[MDC 5,892]

I took him as my 4th RB and I’m pretty happy about it. The injury concern is real but he got hurt early last season and isn’t on the PUP. Best case I get a solid flex play with an outside shot at RB2 numbers. Worst case I dump him mid year. 

[GobbleDog 816]

41 minutes ago, MDC said:

I took him as my 4th RB and I’m pretty happy about it. The injury concern is real but he got hurt early last season and isn’t on the PUP. Best case I get a solid flex play with an outside shot at RB2 numbers. Worst case I dump him mid year. 

Jav Williams was my 2nd rd pick last year, so I know how great he was.

But worst case could be it's unclear if / when to drop him and he roster-clogs all year.  After he's sat on your bench for over a month, ya might feel invested and not want to drop him for others to pick up after you paid the price. Especially if he's been teasing you with mediocre games here and there.

But best case, he's Adrian Peterson 2.0!!! I'm definitely rooting for him.

[Ray_T 591]

7 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

History does not bode well for RB's coming off ACL surgery.  Yeah, I get the discount - the 9th round pick, but it's still too high.  In the 9th round, you can get a flex player, potential starter, and possible sleeper turned star.  With Williams, you're going to get a guy whom you may actually never start... or start too late.  He's likely to miss multiple games.  If I were to pick him, I'd say he'd be my RB6 who I'd target in like round 14 or 15, just before I take my kicker and/or defense.

Keeper /dynasty league, I'm thinking 4th or 5th round.

and to complicate this further.....other Ligaments were torn as well.

I know hes come back and had no issues, but the odds are against him.   That said, I dont know if a 9th round pick would make him an RB3 or an RB4 but the discount is likely close to what it should be.

I think he does at least put up Low end RB3 numbers if he can play the whole year.    I acknowledge, thats a pretty big IF but I do think we are in the ballpark of where we should be if targetting him.

he definitely has more value in Keeper/dynasty.   no doubt of that.

[gridirongoofs 75]

5 hours ago, weepaws said:

If I can get him in the 9/10 rd I’ll take him.  

7th is the latest I've been seeing him go and earliest is 4/5th.... and these are 10 team mock drafts.

[the spanker 28]

3 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Jav Williams was my 2nd rd pick last year, so I know how great he was.

But worst case could be it's unclear if / when to drop him and he roster-clogs all year.  After he's sat on your bench for over a month, ya might feel invested and not want to drop him for others to pick up after you paid the price. Especially if he's been teasing you with mediocre games here and there.

But best case, he's Adrian Peterson 2.0!!! I'm definitely rooting for him.

I completely agree with you and that's why skipped him completely and drafted Perine (who will be the lead gl back) last pick of 9th round instead. 

I mean how much work will he realistically even get to start the season? 

[DrG 94]

Perrine and Mims are the upside picks in Denver

[weepaws 2,460]

1 hour ago, gridirongoofs said:

7th is the latest I've been seeing him go and earliest is 4/5th.... and these are 10 team mock drafts.

Yea I was just being a little silly.  In both of my 14 team leagues there would be no way he would last until the 9/10 th rd.  

But heck if he does I’m taking.  

[weepaws 2,460]

1 hour ago, the spanker said:

I completely agree with you and that's why skipped him completely and drafted Perine (who will be the lead gl back) last pick of 9th round instead. 

I mean how much work will he realistically even get to start the season? 

Nice, I’ve been talking about Perine ADP for sometime, and it even went up a little bit when J Williams played in that preseason game.  

Congrats.