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The Real timschochet

Trump talk only- no Eagles talk allowed (Steelers talk is OK though)

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Mark Kelly owns a spy balloon company  that is funded by the Chinese government. It never ends with those people. 

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20 hours ago, purdygood said:

Am i the only person who feels like if you go to a political rally.. you shouldnt get to vote ? (Obviously if you are a citizen you should vote) but who are all these bumpkins with free time to sit in the background!? Get a damn job!

Jobs include vacation time.

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17 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

What’s important there is the trend line, she’s shot way up. I expect her to exceed 50% in the next few weeks. Conversely, Trump at 47% has reached his height as a result of the shooting and convention. He can only go down. I think he goes way down. 

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2 hours ago, The Real timschochet said:

I see it as Kamala 55% right now. And I think that goes up. But we’ll see. 

You can place money right now at Harris +130 or Trump -165 at Bovada.  Slightly more toward Harris than earlier today.  Removing the vig is where I get my estimate.  If I could get even money on Trump I'd bet a significant amount.  I still see the swing states as problematic for Harris.  But once it's around 65/35 obviously it's not a sure thing.  I'm just wired that way though, I used to count cards at blackjack so 55/45 was enough to bet a significant amount and take the bad with the good.

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3 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

What’s important there is the trend line, she’s shot way up. I expect her to exceed 50% in the next few weeks. Conversely, Trump at 47% has reached his height as a result of the shooting and convention. He can only go down. I think he goes way down. 

Kamala is the one that likes to go down

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8 minutes ago, Mark Davis said:

You can place money right now at Harris +130 or Trump -165 at Bovada.  Slightly more toward Harris than earlier today.  Removing the vig is where I get my estimate.  If I could get even money on Trump I'd bet a significant amount.  I still see the swing states as problematic for Harris.  But once it's around 65/35 obviously it's not a sure thing.  I'm just wired that way though, I used to count cards at blackjack so 55/45 was enough to bet a significant amount and take the bad with the good.

If the betting odds are unchanged in 3-4 weeks I will start to think again that Trump will win. Let’s see what happens. 

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35 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

What’s important there is the trend line, she’s shot way up. I expect her to exceed 50% in the next few weeks. Conversely, Trump at 47% has reached his height as a result of the shooting and convention. He can only go down. I think he goes way down. 

Trump didn't get the usual post-convention bump, and Biden pulling out and Harris emerging in historic fashion upstaged the convention and the assassination attempt, mixed with it being a very bad week for Vance, who adds nothing to the ticket and is only there because he's a Trump toadie.

I agree that he has nowhere to go but down at this point. 

It appears the VP choice has been narrosed to Kelley and Shipiro, and I'm fine with either, although Shipiro would help her in Pennsylvania.

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1 hour ago, Gepetto said:

Jobs include vacation time.

Most rallys are on a random Tuesday. If you wanna spend your vacation time listening to some candidate ramble incoherently. Instead of hanging out at the beach with your kids or grandkids.  Then i just dont get it.  I respect you even less if you use your vacation time to listen to the same crap you can just watch on the news later. 

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8 minutes ago, purdygood said:

Most rallys are on a random Tuesday. If you wanna spend your vacation time listening to some candidate ramble incoherently. Instead of hanging out at the beach with your kids or grandkids.  Then i just dont get it.  I respect you even less if you use your vacation time to listen to the same crap you can just watch on the news later. 

Are you saying no one attends Dem rallies?  

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1 minute ago, BrahmaBulls said:

Are you saying no one attends Dem rallies?  

I am not saying that at all.  I dont understand anyone who would use their free time (in the land of the free, dont forget these are multi hour events with security) to go listen to any politician speak live. But thats their deal.  I can literally think of a million things id rather do. 

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On 7/26/2024 at 3:16 PM, purdygood said:

Am i the only person who feels like if you go to a political rally.. you shouldnt get to vote ? (Obviously if you are a citizen you should vote) but who are all these bumpkins with free time to sit in the background!? Get a damn job!

I’ve been to a few. Back when I was in college and then Bernie in 2016. Was working on my degree for the first one and had to leave my job early for the second.

‘Course those aren’t MAGA rallies. I assume most of those people are on the government dole while simultaneously raging against the government. You know, like red states as a whole 

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On 7/27/2024 at 4:25 PM, purdygood said:

I am not saying that at all.  I dont understand anyone who would use their free time (in the land of the free, dont forget these are multi hour events with security) to go listen to any politician speak live. But thats their deal.  I can literally think of a million things id rather do. 

I went to the republican convention this year and had a blast. I've worked my ass off in my life at my jobs and most likely outpaced whatever it is you do. 

I even took a part timer when I retired at 58 last year to keep a semblance of schedule. You would, I'm sure rather do some liberal bullshlt spreading. Good for you peanut. 

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24 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

I’ve been to a few. Back when I was in college and then Bernie in 2016. Was working on my degree for the first one and had to leave my job early for the second.

‘Course those aren’t MAGA rallies. I assume most of those people are on the government dole while simultaneously raging against the government. You know, like red states as a whole 

weird.

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29 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

I’ve been to a few. Back when I was in college and then Bernie in 2016. Was working on my degree for the first one and had to leave my job early for the second.

‘Course those aren’t MAGA rallies. I assume most of those people are on the government dole while simultaneously raging against the government. You know, like red states as a whole 

Huh?  You guys still going with that?  It's the blue areas in those red states that are on the dole you dumbf0ck.

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OK so here is some aggregate polling from the week past. As I wrote in the other thread we can, IMO, take some of it seriously. And it actually represents some good news for each side depending on what you want to believe: 

https://www.newsweek.com/harris-trump-polling-averages-one-week-after-biden-exit-1931251

The good news for Trump is that he remains ahead, by an average of 2 points and a little higher in Pennsylvania. Despite Kamala’s gains since her campaign started, there may be a ceiling for her in which a firm majority, still concerned about inflation and the border, desire for a return to Trump, and no amount of enthusiasm by the Democrats is going to break that ceiling. 
 

The good news for Kamala is that she has creeped a lot closer in a very short period time. Effectively we are now right where we were prior to the first debate: a tight race with Trump slightly ahead. But for Kamala to win she’s got to surge past him. I think she will. I don’t believe there is the ceiling that Trump fans are counting on. But I could be wrong. 

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On 7/25/2024 at 10:42 AM, thegeneral said:

Yeah did that just suddenly end when Biden and Harris took over?

In any case The GDP for Q2 2024 that just came out was better than Q4 2019. Best economy in the history of the world!!1!

Thats true, but our $$$$ we spend is worth less and less.  

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On 7/25/2024 at 12:54 PM, thegeneral said:

Who knows. I didn’t ask. This shethead using this language is not what I look for from leaders.

What about political opponents being vermin? 

Why don’t you just say yeah this isn’t good, demand better, and move on?

It's more than not good, its deplorable.

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17 hours ago, seafoam1 said:

I went to the republican convention this year and had a blast. I've worked my ass off in my life at my jobs and most likely outpaced whatever it is you do. 

I even took a part timer when I retired at 58 last year to keep a semblance of schedule. You would, I'm sure rather do some liberal bullshlt spreading. Good for you peanut. 

Hahaha I own a million dollar home and have about $750K in investments.  I'm 42.  Thanks for asking PEE-nut.

 

Also, I'm not a Democrat or a Liberal.  But i'm glad you enjoyed your Cult rally.

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9 minutes ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

dont worry libtards, google has your back

 

Yeah, is that legit?  Stuff like this is what the MSM and SM referred to as “fortifying the election” in 2020.   

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27 minutes ago, purdygood said:

Hahaha I own a million dollar home and have about $750K in investments.  I'm 42.  Thanks for asking PEE-nut.

 

Also, I'm not a Democrat or a Liberal.  But i'm glad you enjoyed your Cult rally.

I have $6 billion working for me in investments. Beat that peanut. 

And you are a liberal hack. 

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6 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

I have $6 billion working for me in investments. Beat that peanut. 

And you are a liberal hack. 

you have 6 billion? yet you spend your time trolling on a fantasy football side message board?  how SAD.

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4 minutes ago, purdygood said:

you have 6 billion? yet you spend your time trolling on a fantasy football side message board?  how SAD.

He wrote “I have 6 billion working for me.” He’s probably part of a retirement fund. 

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5 minutes ago, purdygood said:

you have 6 billion? yet you spend your time trolling on a fantasy football side message board?  how SAD.

So you have a million yet you spend your time trolling on a fantasy football side message board? how SAD. 

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1 minute ago, The Real timschochet said:

He wrote “I have 6 billion working for me.” He’s probably part of a retirement fund. 

Aww. Timmy wants in. 

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Just now, seafoam1 said:

So you have a million yet you spend your time trolling on a fantasy football side message board? how SAD. 

spider man meme.  yet this all started because you like to have fun at cult rally's... and I said, good for you.  As Kendrick Lamar said, "they not like us" I am happy when people are happy. I just dont get political rally's...  seem lame. A vote is a vote.

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4 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Nope. I don’t brag about my money. I’m doing okay, and I have a happy family life which is far more important. 

😆

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Liberals don’t have rallies anymore. They have mostly peaceful protests. 

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2 minutes ago, purdygood said:

i aint never donated a penny to a politician either. never will.  

Ditto.   Will never ever do that

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3 minutes ago, purdygood said:

i aint never donated a penny to a politician either. never will.  

Looks like you ain’t never been to English class either 

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5 minutes ago, purdygood said:

i aint never donated a penny to a politician either. never will.  

I tend to confine my giving to environmental causes and to medical research.  My wife concentrates hers on animals, children, and the Catholic Church which, BTW, I do not attend or participate in.  My wife has given to the Trump campaign, a matter of some contention and tension between us.  She has agreed to refrain from doing so in the future.

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10 minutes ago, purdygood said:

i aint never donated a penny to a politician either. never will.  

I usually don’t. I donated to Ted Cruz in 2016 (hoping he might stop Trump). I may donate to Kamala. 

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Looks like Harris has caught up to and perhaps surpassed Trump in Pennsylvania.

That being said, perhaps she should focus on Kelly over Shapiro, who has some fresh sexual-harassment allegations coming out. 

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7 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Looks like you ain’t never been to English class either 

Nice double negative, Tolstoy.

🤣

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14 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Looks like you ain’t never been to English class either 

He's got the killary accent going. 

 

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