Trump talk only- no Eagles talk allowed (Steelers talk is OK though)

[thegeneral 3,214]

Just now, jonmx said:

I expect Trump to win the popular vote.  

Care to make that interesting? A hundy to charity of the winner’s choice?

[Sean Mooney 1,983]

11 minutes ago, jonmx said:

I would take the bet if the terms were who wins the election.  Harris could still pull off a narrow win in MI and win those three states.  But that is still a losing hand.   I would give you Harris +10 EVs. 

From the start I've said Trump will win because PA will flip.

You've said it will be a Trump bloodbath and you said all seven swing states will go for Trump and one of Virginia, New Hampshire, Minnesota. 

Now you want to put conditions on it. Sounds like you are not strong in your convictions. 

[jonmx 2,429]

8 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

From the start I've said Trump will win because PA will flip.

You've said it will be a Trump bloodbath and you said all seven swing states will go for Trump and one of Virginia, New Hampshire, Minnesota. 

Now you want to put conditions on it. Sounds like you are not strong in your convictions. 

If I think TB is going to beat KC tonight when they are 9.5 point dogs, I don't take a straight win/loss bet unless I get odds.   Just Trump sweeping those States is like 4 to 1 on the betting market.   Get 4 other losers onboard and I would take it.  

[Sean Mooney 1,983]

6 minutes ago, jonmx said:

If I think TB is going to beat KC tonight when they are 9.5 point dogs, I don't take a straight win/loss bet unless I get odds.   Just Trump sweeping those States is like 4 to 1 on the betting market.   Get 4 other losers onboard and I would take it.  

But then why even say it. 

No one would say "Harris will sweep Texas, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Oklahoma"  because they know it is almost assuredly not going to happen. You know it is almost assuredly not going to happen that all 7 swing states and 1 of three left leaning states will fall to Trump. You are the one who created the parlay though. 

Pretty sure you called Trump to have 350 electoral votes. So then give me Harris +187.

[jonmx 2,429]

2 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

But then why even say it. 

No one would say "Harris will sweep Texas, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Oklahoma"  because they know it is almost assuredly not going to happen. You know it is almost assuredly not going to happen that all 7 swing states and 1 of three left leaning states will fall to Trump. You are the one who created the parlay though. 

Because I think it is going to happen.  Hell, I think Indiana has a good chance at winning the NCAA football championship this year.   When I bet them, they were +50000 (now +3000).   It was a very bold prediction which I would be stupid to take even odds on.  

[jerryskids 6,799]

1 hour ago, Sean Mooney said:

There are about 21,000 black people in New Hampshire according to the 2022 census. The poll talked to 12, or .06%. That is not an accurate representation- especially when factored into the poll demographics

12 out of 622 is 2%, not .06%

According to Wiki, NH was 1.5% black in the 2020 census.  I'd say it's probably about 2% in 2024, given the growth.

Racial composition	1990[54]	2000[55]	2010[50]	2020[49]
White	98.0%	96.0%	93.9%	88.3%
Black or African American	0.6%	0.7%	1.1%	1.5%
American Indian and Alaska Native	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Asian	0.8%	1.3%	2.2%	2.6%
Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander	–	–	0.0%	0.0%
Other race	0.3%	0.6%	0.9%	1.7%
Two or more races	–	1.1%	1.6%	5.6%
Hispanic or Latino (of any race)	1.0%	1.7%	2.8%	4.3%

[Sean Mooney 1,983]

3 minutes ago, jerryskids said:

12 out of 622 is 2%, not .06%

According to Wiki, NH was 1.5% black in the 2020 census.  I'd say it's probably about 2% in 2024, given the growth.

Racial composition	1990[54]	2000[55]	2010[50]	2020[49]
White	98.0%	96.0%	93.9%	88.3%
Black or African American	0.6%	0.7%	1.1%	1.5%
American Indian and Alaska Native	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Asian	0.8%	1.3%	2.2%	2.6%
Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander	–	–	0.0%	0.0%
Other race	0.3%	0.6%	0.9%	1.7%
Two or more races	–	1.1%	1.6%	5.6%
Hispanic or Latino (of any race)	1.0%	1.7%	2.8%	4.3%

Jerry- I said the 12 was out of the 21000 people in the black population which would be .06%. I pointed out the 2% in my initial post by referencing the number referred to in the methodology. The census data you have shows 88% white and the poll was 95% white people....that is an overrepresentation of a group and one that we know skews towards Trump nationally. 

[Sean Mooney 1,983]

11 minutes ago, jonmx said:

Because I think it is going to happen.  Hell, I think Indiana has a good chance at winning the NCAA football championship this year.   When I bet them, they were +50000 (now +3000).   It was a very bold prediction which I would be stupid to take even odds on.  

So is that a "no" on giving me Harris +187?

[Mike Hunt 282]

Whoever wins needs to govern more from the middle  Harris and Trump are too extreme.

If the election is 51% to 49% almsot half the people will not be happy.  

If you ran a company of 100 people and 49 were not happy it would be a failure.  That will happen in the USA unless both move toward the middle more.

[jerryskids 6,799]

7 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

Jerry- I said the 12 was out of the 21000 people in the black population which would be .06%. I pointed out the 2% in my initial post by referencing the number referred to in the methodology. The census data you have shows 88% white and the poll was 95% white people....that is an overrepresentation of a group and one that we know skews towards Trump nationally. 

You never said 2% that I could see.  Regardless, I was providing data to support whoever upthread said that it about nails the black population of NH.

So your mentioning of "they only talked to 12" makes no sense, other than to corroborate that they got a good distribution of black registered voters, which I don't think was your point.

You should have just stuck to "it was too small".   

[Sean Mooney 1,983]

1 minute ago, jerryskids said:

You never said 2% that I could see.  Regardless, I was providing data to support whoever upthread said that it about nails the black population of NH.

So your mentioning of "they only talked to 12" makes no sense, other than to corroborate that they got a good distribution of black registered voters, which I don't think was your point.

You should have just stuck to "it was too small".   

The poll methodology doesn't mention how many black people they talked to but I could see they polled 622 people and 1.9% were black. 1.9% of 622 is 12.

My point stands too that they overrepresented the white population of NH in the poll and underrepresented the black population (to varying degrees on both).

So it was too small a sample size AND misrepresented the population to varying degrees. 

[Hawkeye21 2,399]

https://twitter.com/ImMeme0/status/1853403694613635235

I can't get the links to work right again.

[Hardcore troubadour 15,433]

2 hours ago, MDC said:

I had three of them at my door this weekend (PA). 

That’s a great use of resources. 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,433]

I give Hawkeye credit for saying who he’s voting for, unlike these chumps that claim to be centrists. None for Hackass. He’s just a liar.  

[Sean Mooney 1,983]

Some early voting return news from PA:

There were 2,184,683 mail in ballots requested. There have been 1,739,606 returned meaning 79.6% return rate.

Within that 1,739,606 this is the breakdown:

• Democrats: 971,615 ballots returned, making up 55.9% of all accepted mail ballots. Out of 1,192,956 ballots requested by Democrats, 81.4% have been returned.
• Republicans: 571,725 ballots returned, accounting for 32.9% of accepted mail ballots. Republicans requested 711,974 ballots in total, with a return rate of 80.3%.
• None/Minor Parties: 196,266 ballots returned, making up 11.3% of the total. Out of 279,753 requested by unaffiliated or minor party voters, 70.2% have been returned.

 

Now for some 2020/2022 related context before people decide what they think it all means:

There were about 1 million more main in ballots requested in 2020 (perhaps we can assume that was due to COVID). In 2022- there were about 1.3 million ballots requested at this point (usually non presidential year voting is lower). 

In 2020- 65% of mail in ballots came from Democrats, and 23% came from Republicans. So some gains for Republicans in that regard. A little more than 26% of Pennsylvania’s mail ballots have been requested from Montgomery, Delaware, Bucks, and Chester Counties, which account for nearly 40% of the registered voters in the state. Philadelphia makes up nearly 11% of the approved mail ballot applications, and is home to nearly 23% of the state’s registered voters.

So currently by numbers 420,000 more Democrats have voted- but obviously they might not all be votes for Harris, anymore than all 571,000 Republican votes would be all for Trump. Also, is the increase in Republican mail in because they are being assured to do it more this time or is it new voters they've tapped- the difference between Democrats and Republicans in 2020 was Democrats +686K. In 2024 it is Democrats +298K

Make of all those numbers what you want. I still hold that PA will flip back to Trump in this election and swing Trump to be sworn in as the 47th President. 

 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,433]

Tl/dr.  Who you voting for Mooney? 

[TimHauck 2,876]

52 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

But then why even say it. 

No one would say "Harris will sweep Texas, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Oklahoma"  because they know it is almost assuredly not going to happen. You know it is almost assuredly not going to happen that all 7 swing states and 1 of three left leaning states will fall to Trump. You are the one who created the parlay though. 

Pretty sure you called Trump to have 350 electoral votes. So then give me Harris +187.

Yup.  I don’t think he said 350 though.  He has said 310+ though 

[RaiderHaters Revenge 4,350]

Obama out spreading the good people on both sides lie

Demoncrats claim to be the party against disinformation 

[Sean Mooney 1,983]

5 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Yup.  I don’t think he said 350 though.  He has said 310+ though 

Hmm....somebody definitely said 350...not sure who it was then 

[IGotWorms 4,058]

32 minutes ago, Mike Hunt said:

Whoever wins needs to govern more from the middle  Harris and Trump are too extreme.

If the election is 51% to 49% almsot half the people will not be happy.  

If you ran a company of 100 people and 49 were not happy it would be a failure.  That will happen in the USA unless both move toward the middle more.

Harris is not at all extreme this go around. She was a little too extreme in 2020 though

[Hardcore troubadour 15,433]

5 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

Hmm....somebody definitely said 350...not sure who it was then 

That’s the thing. They said something. They get judged on it. Who you voting for? 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,433]

1 minute ago, IGotWorms said:

Harris is not at all extreme this go around. She was a little too extreme in 2020 though

Neither was Biden. Till he got in and Obama told him what to do. 

[IGotWorms 4,058]

Some good news from Harris out of the recent NYTimes poll. Except when it comes to PA. Which is likely key unless she were actually able to do something wild like flip Iowa or run the table in the sun belt 

[IGotWorms 4,058]

2 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Neither was Biden. Till he got in and Obama told him what to do. 

How was Biden too extreme? Not like he made a push for national healthcare or anything.

Most of the criticism I’ve seen of him is that he was weak or not effective enough (which I disagree with, but whatever), not that he was too extreme.

[Hardcore troubadour 15,433]

Just now, IGotWorms said:

How was Biden too extreme? Not like he made a push for national healthcare or anything 

Yeah 10 million migrants ushered in and paid for isn’t extreme. It’s mainstream. FBI cracking down on school board meetings was always a thing. 

[Sean Mooney 1,983]

6 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Some good news from Harris out of the recent NYTimes poll. Except when it comes to PA. Which is likely key unless she were actually able to do something wild like flip Iowa or run the table in the sun belt 

Still showing PA tied?

[thegeneral 3,214]

What’s up with all these empty auditoriums Trump is talking to these days?

[Sean Mooney 1,983]

6 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

How was Biden too extreme? Not like he made a push for national healthcare or anything.

Most of the criticism I’ve seen of him is that he was weak or not effective enough (which I disagree with, but whatever), not that he was too extreme.

Because you are talking to maybe the biggest soft brain on the board

[The Real timschochet 6,764]

35 minutes ago, Mike Hunt said:

Whoever wins needs to govern more from the middle  

This will definitely happen with Harris. I would argue that she’s a centrist anyhow but even if I am wrong about that the Senate is likely to be Republican- and even in the very unlikely event Democrats hang on to the Senate their hold there will be extremely tenuous. Add to that a conservative Supreme Court and I don’t think anyone has to worry about radical changes under Harris. 
 

Trump is extreme but not an extreme rightist, more an extreme nativist/populist. He will sew chaos if elected. Most of those who are voting for him are counting on him to “fix” the economy and immigration; he will definitely try some radical moves which will create all kinds of anxiety but no solutions/ I think there will be a lot of buyers remorse. 

[Horseman 2,458]

On 11/3/2024 at 8:58 AM, The Real timschochet said:

Meanwhile the betting odds for Trump continue to tumble: 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2024/10/31/presidential-election-odds-2024-polls-betting/75628466007/

I felt I had to post this because @Horseman, who has eagerly posted these odds for weeks and offered them as evidence of who is really winning this election, has now become strangely silent on this subject. 

Mr. too busy that posts all weekend doesn't know how to read.

On 11/1/2024 at 7:21 PM, Horseman said:

Yes. After swinging $1.50 in Trump's favor from +135 to -215 the last couple of days the odds have swung back $0.50 to -165.  I don't really see a reason for it.  Must be the whales (sarcasm).  

ETA:  Polls haven't budged.  

 

On 11/1/2024 at 7:25 PM, OldMaid said:

Most likely people finding out the polls are focked.

It swung all the way to Trump -135 and stayed that way for the most part all day yesterday.  On the move again today though in Trumps favor.  Trump -160

Trump -160 is a 61.5% implied probability, or 23 points ahead.  However you like to think about it.  

If you think about what happened the line moved back from Trump -215 (seems crazy) to more in line with what the polling is showing with Trump the slight favorite -140 to -160.  That makes sense with more people betting the closer we get to election day.  But, you have to ask yourself, what was all the money doing that pushed it all the way to Trump -215

[The Real timschochet 6,764]

10 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Some good news from Harris out of the recent NYTimes poll. Except when it comes to PA. Which is likely key unless she were actually able to do something wild like flip Iowa or run the table in the sun belt 

They’ve got her ahead in North Carolina and Georgia. If she wins those she doesn’t need Pennsylvania. (But if she wins those she will win Pennsylvania). 

[IGotWorms 4,058]

4 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

Still showing PA tied?

Yes and I should’ve mentioned MI too. So that’s trouble with the supposed blue wall.

But OTOH they say there’s some evidence late deciders are breaking heavily for Kamala. Wouldn’t surprise me at all as he’s acted a real lunatic fool and most of his ending ads are just unhinged, so people tuning in late are probably like wtf?

[The Real timschochet 6,764]

1 minute ago, Horseman said:

Mr. too busy that posts all weekend doesn't know how to read.

 

It swung all the way to Trump -135 and stayed that way for the most part all day yesterday.  On the move again today though in Trumps favor.  Trump -160

Trump -160 is a 61.5% implied probability, or 23 points ahead.  However you like to think about it.  

If you think about what happened the line moved back from Trump -215 (seems crazy) to more in line with what the polling is showing with Trump the slight favorite -140 to -160.  That makes sense with more people betting the closer we get to election day.  But, you have to ask yourself, what was all the money doing that pushed it all the way to Trump -215

I’m ready to bet again Tony, Just with you nobody else. $500 says Kamala Harris wins the Presidential election. 

[Sean Mooney 1,983]

10 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Yes and I should’ve mentioned MI too. So that’s trouble with the supposed blue wall.

But OTOH they say there’s some evidence late deciders are breaking heavily for Kamala. Wouldn’t surprise me at all as he’s acted a real lunatic fool and most of his ending ads are just unhinged, so people tuning in late are probably like wtf?

The late breaking voters is an interesting storyline here.

I still hold that Trump wins the election and I will stand behind what I said about the Kamala campaign being horribly run overall.

But if Trump does find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory the last 10 days of the campaign- from the NYC rally to Election Day will be studied for years to come. 

[The Real timschochet 6,764]

2 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

The late breaking voters is an interesting storyline here.

I still hold that Trump wins the election and I will stand behind what I said about the Kamala campaign being horribly run overall.

But if Trump does find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory the last 10 days of the campaign- from the NYC rally to Election Day will be studied for years to come. 

It’s interesting that you write this because a lot of pundits think that Harris has run a brilliant campaign. I kind of lean more in that direction. 

[OldMaid 2,130]

2 hours ago, thegeneral said:

This one poll is the accurate one…all the others are bad. Except in Iowa where that one is the bad one and all the others are the good ones.

Republican sponsored firms dropped something like 80 polls into the aggregate in the last few weeks. Then Silver said that some of the major ones were also "herding" meaning they wouldn’t publish anything that fell outside the norm or they’d adjust it to where it was basically tied. They are scared to death to get it wrong again. The independent polling firms are being more honest.

The Selzer poll is from an A+ rated pollster. She has a pretty impressive track record and does things a lot differently than the rest of them. She’s had a couple of big misses, but she’s usually spot on. 

[Sean Mooney 1,983]

8 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

It’s interesting that you write this because a lot of pundits think that Harris has run a brilliant campaign. I kind of lean more in that direction. 

A lot of pundits are idiots. They've basically waited the clock out on Trump doing something stupid. 

[OldMaid 2,130]

49 minutes ago, RaiderHaters Revenge said:

Obama out spreading the good people on both sides lie

Demoncrats claim to be the party against disinformation 

You know what, I’m tired of this bullcrap. You don’t get to call this a lie just because he went on and said he didn’t support the nazi’s. Speaking out of both sides of your mouth, doesn’t make what he said any better. 
 

And who are these supposed "fine people" anyway? Most good people I know wouldn’t be in the same venue as a nazi rally, period.

[thegeneral 3,214]

3 minutes ago, OldMaid said:

Republican sponsored firms dropped something like 80 polls into the aggregate in the last few weeks. Then Silver said that some of the major ones were also "herding" meaning they wouldn’t publish anything that fell outside the norm or they’d adjust it to where it was basically tied. They are scared to death to get it wrong again. The independent polling firms are being more honest.

The Selzer poll is from an A+ rated pollster. She has a pretty impressive track record and does things a lot differently than the rest of them. She’s had a couple of big misses, but she’s usually spot on. 

Interesting on the first part about influencing these polling aggregators (like Real Clear Politics). I have not folllowed how these places have been getting info closely and have just been looking at their numbers which look better for Trump.

Kamala does seem to have the momentum in past couple weeks. Really hard to say with much confidence. 

[The Real timschochet 6,764]

Last night Trump said that his immigration plan (mass deportation) would be “bloody” and “nasty”. Earlier in the week Elon Musk said that the economic plans would create “temporary hardships” on the public, and Trump said he would turn public health over to RFK Jr and let him “run wild”. 
 

Rather a unique closing message.