Justin Herbert wide receivers

[Ray_T 716]

2 minutes ago, IGotWorms said:

Johnson was at the absolute floor of how you can do in your rookie season and still turn into something as a WR. So it’s possible and I am intrigued, but man, he was so close to being an outright bust 🤏

well, sometimes this is a function of the coach and O/C  too.   coach lost his job.

but when a team drafts a player at the college level, they are rarely a finished product.   the rookie camp is designed to get the kid up to speed and teach the nuances of the pro game before training camp arrives.

if a player doesnt do well as a rookie, sometimes its the player, but sometimes its the coach.

case in point:

Goff.   rookie year he was terrible. (I would argue beyond terrible)

McVay arrives and his production explodes.

to me that tells me the problem was more with the coaching and less with the player (in that case at least)

[WhiteWonder 2,468]

42 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

fair comments all.

and yeah it is tough to expect a rookie to lead the team in receiving.  if he gets 800 yards and 5-6 TD as a rookie I'd say its a very successful rookie campain, but its not WR1 production.

its likely palmer as the leading WR though there is an outside chance Chark steps up.    but Palmer has to be the highest odds to thrive.

Quentin Johnson is still a dark horse.   going into his second year,  it feels like we still dont know who he is as a pro yet.

Johnston was not good but his draft capital says they won't be giving up on him.   It's going to be Palmer and Johnston on the outsides and Ladd in the slot. I really don't think Chark makes an impact unless there is an injury or Johnston looks like a complete bust in camp. Herbert has some comfort with Palmer.... and Johnston and Ladd have 1st and 2nd round draft capital tied to them. 

In fact, if you believe Harbaugh had a 3rd/4th round grade on Rice and you believe he will work his butt off, I would have Chark 4th on the depth chart but 5th in terms of potential.

[jrokh 596]

Q. Johnson is exactly the late round type of lotto ticket an astute fantasy player would be targeting...

[Ray_T 716]

either way, my hope is that this situation clears up a bit more come training camp.

right now its a very interesting situation to speculate on

[weepaws 2,986]

It’s a confusing situation, There isn’t a right move.  There is no alpha wr.  Which ever one any ff owners rosters will be a disappointment most weeks.  Ladd is the only one I’m going to target , and targeting him very late.  I’ll be happy to let any of the other 13 owners in both of my leagues own any of them.  

[Ray_T 716]

well, it is a situation where you can find value if the WR slides far enough.

you certainly dont want to overpay for any Charger WR, but at least one will put up draftable numbers.  Possibly 2.   but there is a whole lot more risk to them.

for me, Chargers WR are players to target late in the draft if they are still on the board.

[LaChup 212]

McHonkey is going to cook with Rice. Harbaugh is going to abandon the ground game.

[Ray_T 716]

2 hours ago, LaChup said:

McHonkey is going to cook with Rice. Harbaugh is going to abandon the ground game.

I doubt he abandons it.   but I'm sure hes wanting a more balanced offense.

[GobbleDog 917]

11 hours ago, LaChup said:

Harbaugh is going to abandon the ground game.

Harbaugh spent three seasons in San Fran ('11-'13)... during which the Niners finished 3rd, 7th, and 3rd in rushing attempts, and 8th, 4th and 3rd in rushing yards.

Greg Roman has been hired Chargers o-coordinator. Roman was previously coordinator in Baltimore ('19-'22)... during which the Ravens finished 1st, 1st, 3rd and 7th in rushing attempts, and 1st, 1st, 3rd, and 2nd in rushing yards.

The Chargers are going to pound the ball down their opponents throats.

[weepaws 2,986]

If Dobbins can stay healthy, is going to be a very  good investment. 

[Ray_T 716]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

If Dobbins can stay healthy, is going to be a very  good investment. 

thats a very big IF.

I have always liked the guy.   drafted him last year and regretted it.    That said, if I can get him on the cheap, I may buy him again at auction late but the price needs to be right.    while I'm down on his injury history, hes not a guy who should go undrafted.    while healthy, he should produce.   

the questions I have is:

how much will the most recent injury affect his production?    

for this, I'll be looking at camp reports to see how he is looking

and the second question is what are the odds he gets hurt again?

hes a nice late round lotto ticket,  but dont overpay.

 

 

[weepaws 2,986]

I’m going to target him very late, rb5, if I can get him, and he can stay healthy, gold.  

[GobbleDog 917]

2 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

the questions I have is:

how much will the most recent injury affect his production?    

for this, I'll be looking at camp reports to see how he is looking

and the second question is what are the odds he gets hurt again?

Another question - is this a 3-headed timeshare?

Rb 38) Gus Edwards, Rb 53) JK Dobbins, Rb 72) Kimani Vidal

None of those guys are known for pass-catching skills (not that they'll be throwing to Rb's much), though interestingly Vidal did rank as the 2nd best pass-blocker in college last year. Considering ADP's, Edward's plodding running style (probably gets bulk of goal-line work), and fact that Dobbins tore his ACHILLES (historically the death nail for Rbs)... I'll be targeting Vidal late - who Harbaugh personally selected in the draft. Don't expect much the first half of the season so he might roster-clog a while, but could pay dividends late.

[RareN64Dream 20]

9 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I’m going to target him very late, rb5, if I can get him, and he can stay healthy, gold.  

I would try to get Gus Edwards and Dobbins on same team; if you are going to take either of them. That is what I did in a free league for fun.

[RareN64Dream 20]

1 minute ago, GobbleDog said:

Another question - is this a 3-headed timeshare?

Rb 38) Gus Edwards, Rb 53) JK Dobbins, Rb 72) Kimani Vidal

None of those guys are known for pass-catching skills (not that they'll be throwing to Rb's much), though interestingly Vidal did rank as the 2nd best pass-blocker in college last year. Considering ADP's, Edward's plodding running style (probably gets bulk of goal-line work), and fact that Dobbins tore his ACHILLES (historically the death nail for Rbs)... I'll be targeting Vidal late - who Harbaugh personally selected in the draft. Don't expect much the first half of the season so he might roster-clog a while, but could pay dividends late.

Good post, I did not know about Vidal that much. I gotta look at who got taken in the NFL draft again.

[Ray_T 716]

30 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Another question - is this a 3-headed timeshare?

Rb 38) Gus Edwards, Rb 53) JK Dobbins, Rb 72) Kimani Vidal

None of those guys are known for pass-catching skills (not that they'll be throwing to Rb's much), though interestingly Vidal did rank as the 2nd best pass-blocker in college last year. Considering ADP's, Edward's plodding running style (probably gets bulk of goal-line work), and fact that Dobbins tore his ACHILLES (historically the death nail for Rbs)... I'll be targeting Vidal late - who Harbaugh personally selected in the draft. Don't expect much the first half of the season so he might roster-clog a while, but could pay dividends late.

agreed.  Gus is the short yardage guy.  no question about it.

though I am wondering if it depends on the nature of the achilles.   you are fully correct.  that used to be a career ender for RB.   but Etienne seems to have recovered fine.

I dont know if its better medical technology or if he just injured it in a way that was easier to repair.    I have been trying to get some info on this because it will allow me an edge if I can predict a recovery from injury on a player everyone else has written off.

That said..... I dont know a ton about this Vidal guy, but if coach hand picked him, he must think he can develop him into a player.   given that he likely played against this kid I am guessing he knows stuff about him the rest of us dont.   

either way I am hoping training camp reports enlighten us.   

but I will say one thing..... between Vidal and Dobbins, one of them likely puts up numbers and you should be able to get both very late in the draft.   would it be fair strategy if you draft on the turn late to take both in short order in the hope one turns into a starter?    

[GobbleDog 917]

17 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

though I am wondering if it depends on the nature of the achilles.   you are fully correct.  that used to be a career ender for RB.   but Etienne seems to have recovered fine.

Wait, Etienne suffered a Linsfrac injury... not achilles. Here's the high-water mark for Rb's who suffered an Achilles - Donta Foreman. Torn in late 2017. Five years later in 2022 Foreman finally had the best season of his entire career in Carolina... 914 yds, 5 Tds. That ain't saying much.

Until some RB finally overcomes the Achilles - and it'll probably happen eventually... it remains the curse of death for Rbs. Good luck Dobbins and I sincerely hope he breaks the curse, but I can't draft him.

[Ray_T 716]

34 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Wait, Etienne suffered a Linsfrac injury... not achilles. Here's the high-water mark for Rb's who suffered an Achilles - Donta Foreman. Torn in late 2017. Five years later in 2022 Foreman finally had the best season of his entire career in Carolina... 914 yds, 5 Tds. That ain't saying much.

Until some RB finally overcomes the Achilles - and it'll probably happen eventually... it remains the curse of death for Rbs. Good luck Dobbins and I sincerely hope he breaks the curse, but I can't draft him.

you are right. I got my injuries mixed up.  my bad

for some dumb reason I thought it was an achilles.  although a Lis franc injury is just as bad (worse usually if its bad enough to operate on)

 

[Ray_T 716]

ok I got curious and found a link that may be helpful here.   RB's have recovered but the odds still are not great.

 

Cam Akers and the History of Achilles Injuries For NFL Running Backs (sports-king.com)

[Ray_T 716]

I found another article.   apparently there is a new technique that improves recovery time.  they did it with Akers, but I dont know if the end result was that much better.

What happened to Cam Akers? How Rams RB made remarkable recovery from Achilles injury to play in playoffs | Sporting News

[weepaws 2,986]

I don’t see a lot of value to any chargers offense players, I don’t see them being a good team, Way to many questions.  Unless I can get Dobbins late, and even then if he’s the best available at that time would I take him, but there might be someone better.  

[HOOKIN' BULL 2]

Johnson -- 1st round draft capital

McConkey - early 2nd draft capital

Palmer - chemistry with Herbert

Give me the chemistry

McConkey is likely the only one drafted in my main league (14 team with a 4 player bench) -- My early draft strategy is to draft Chubb, put him on IR after the draft & then go pick up my 1st free agent ... Palmer as my weak azz Wr#3

[gcmmidwest 139]

 

Los Angeles Chargers

Fantasy NFL Rumors: Ladd McConkey Replaces Keenan Allen as Quentin Johnston Is WR4

Adam WellsJuly 30, 2024

Harry How/Getty Images

The 2024 fantasy outlook for the Los Angeles Chargers is muddled because of how much turnover they've had on the offensive side of the ball, but rookie receiver Ladd McConkey is emerging as the potential go-to option for Justin Herbert.

On the latest episode of the Scoop City podcast (starts at 20:00 mark), The Athletic's Chase Daniel reported at Chargers camp that McConkey is "taking Keenan Allen's role" in Herbert's mind.

While that's a positive sign for the Chargers' receiving corps, the news is not as promising for 2023 first-round pick Quentin Johnston. Daniel noted the former TCU star is currently the No. 4 wideout on the receiver depth chart, behind McConkey, Joshua Palmer and D.J. Chark Jr

[Ray_T 716]

13 minutes ago, gcmmidwest said:

While that's a positive sign for the Chargers' receiving corps, the news is not as promising for 2023 first-round pick Quentin Johnston. Daniel noted the former TCU star is currently the No. 4 wideout on the receiver depth chart, behind McConkey, Joshua Palmer and D.J. Chark Jr

well, Quentin Johnston didnt really look good his rookie season.   I have not seen enough of him to know exactly why.     he didnt get a ton of playing time and when I did see him he was rarely on the camera.

but if he doesnt show at least some progression in his game, he will shift from prospect to suspect in short order.

[GobbleDog 917]

I'm surprised. Assumed with Allen and Williams gone, Quentin would easily assent to 1st or 2nd Wr. But Chargers have a new Gm, coach, and o-coordinator, none have any loyalty to him. He's gotta earn it. Sounds like he hasn't, but it's still early in camp.

[Ray_T 716]

27 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

I'm surprised. Assumed with Allen and Williams gone, Quentin would easily assent to 1st or 2nd Wr. But Chargers have a new Gm, coach, and o-coordinator, none have any loyalty to him. He's gotta earn it. Sounds like he hasn't, but it's still early in camp.

very true.   

and its tough sledding when that happens.   Maybe a change of scenery is what he needs. but I dont know that he will get it.

[weepaws 2,986]

I’m not at all surprised by that news about McConkey.  I thought he was the only wr on the Chargers even worth a target.  

[Ray_T 716]

29 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I’m not at all surprised by that news about McConkey.  I thought he was the only wr on the Chargers even worth a target.  

I do think Palmer is an underrated target.   assuming good health he is for sure either the #1 or #2 WR in this offense.   that likely makes him fantasy relevant.    and you can get him dirt cheap in the draft.    

 

[Maximum Overkill 1,304]

2 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I do think Palmer is an underrated target.   assuming good health he is for sure either the #1 or #2 WR in this offense.   that likely makes him fantasy relevant.    and you can get him dirt cheap in the draft.    

 

I agree. I really expected Q to step up and take that WR2 spot but he's been a huge disappointment again. Palmer is an amazing value but probably not for long. 

[nobody 2,448]

The first problem with Quintin Johnston is he has bad hands.

The second problem is he's not good at running routes.  What I mean by that is he needs to get to where he's supposed to be on time and with separation.  That's what makes good wide receivers good.  He can't change direction fast enough to be effective.

All he seems to be able to do is run fast in a straight line.

That's why I think it's kind of easy to scout receivers by the way.  You just look for guys who can make sharp cuts without losing too much speed and can catch.  NFL teams are so dumb.  They just look for "he are be big and fast." Meanwhile Pittsburgh finds an all star in the 3rd round every year.

[Maximum Overkill 1,304]

37 minutes ago, nobody said:

All he seems to be able to do is run fast in a straight line.

Agree. It's painfully apparent that he's not an NFL WR. 

Hulk him up and try him at TE  

[GobbleDog 917]

1 hour ago, nobody said:

The first problem with Quintin Johnston is he has bad hands.

Hands were a problem at TCU and apparently not great in training camp so far this year... but his 3 drops last year (4.5% of targets) gets a bit over-blown. Mainly because one cost the Chargers week 11 which would've kept them in playoff contention.

He isn't shifty. Pro-Day cone drill was abysmal. Still, ya think his size and speed would make him a good deep threat. At the very least, a decoy to keep defenses honest.

[League Champion 1,790]

Is there hope? I say no 

[Ray_T 716]

2 hours ago, nobody said:

The first problem with Quintin Johnston is he has bad hands.

The second problem is he's not good at running routes.  What I mean by that is he needs to get to where he's supposed to be on time and with separation.  That's what makes good wide receivers good.  He can't change direction fast enough to be effective.

All he seems to be able to do is run fast in a straight line.

That's why I think it's kind of easy to scout receivers by the way.  You just look for guys who can make sharp cuts without losing too much speed and can catch.  NFL teams are so dumb.  They just look for "he are be big and fast." Meanwhile Pittsburgh finds an all star in the 3rd round every year.

well, there are some coaches who think pro level coaching will change that.     it can in some cases.   but most times not.

and if your ability to separate isnt what it needs to be the WR needs to have a talent that allows them to catch the ball without separation.   either you have a real wide catch radius with good hands or incredible leaping ability (like Dez Bryant)  that allows you to run to a point on the field and the QB can just lob it up to you to go get.   I dont know how many times a DB was all over Dez (as his route running was suspect at best) but hed simply get to the spot and out leap the DB for the ball.

either way I dont see that in this guy either.

This is why so many people are excited about Harrison.   I actually found his ability to separate at times could be better but his catch radius is unbelievable and even if hes not open he still catches the ball if its reasonably thrown.   so even if hes not open, he likely still comes up with the ball.   That skill separates him from the other prospects.

[weepaws 2,986]

8 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I do think Palmer is an underrated target.   assuming good health he is for sure either the #1 or #2 WR in this offense.   that likely makes him fantasy relevant.    and you can get him dirt cheap in the draft.    

 

I would rather take McConkey dirt cheap, I’m not impressed with what Palmer has done. 

[Ray_T 716]

16 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I would rather take McConkey dirt cheap, I’m not impressed with what Palmer has done. 

well, its him and McConkey who will be 1-2 (in my opinion)   

Chark has an outside chance but I think they want McConkey to beat him out.   but as a rookie sometimes it takes time for that to play out.

[nobody 2,448]

The issue I see with the Chargers in general is that if Harbaugh gets his way, he'll only throw the ball 18 times a game.  give Herbert a 70% completion percentage and that's what?  13 completions a game?

I suppose if LA goes into the 4th quarter losing, that number should go up, but he seems to win everywhere he goes.

[GobbleDog 917]

18 minutes ago, nobody said:

if Harbaugh gets his way, he'll only throw the ball 18 times a game. 

They're gonna be run-heavy for sure, but averaging 18 pass attempts per game would break records dating back to at least the 70's. Even Kaepernick threw 26 to 30 times per game with Harbaugh.

[nobody 2,448]

22 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

They're gonna be run-heavy for sure, but averaging 18 pass attempts per game would break records dating back to at least the 70's. Even Kaepernick threw 26 to 30 times per game with Harbaugh.

I like the sound of that a lot better.

[kcBlitzkrieg 29]

On 6/11/2024 at 3:52 PM, weepaws said:

I don’t see a lot of value to any chargers offense players, I don’t see them being a good team, Way to many questions.  Unless I can get Dobbins late, and even then if he’s the best available at that time would I take him, but there might be someone better.  

RBs history coming of achilles is very poor, not like a QB coming back.  I've yet to dive into ADP values yet but I would imagine Vidal's ADP is later than Dobbins.  Cheap hedge to Edwards a few rounds earlier.