Travis Kelce old and on the decline or is everything just fine

[Super Cubs 154]

your thought on Travis Kelce for 2024

2023  rec - 93,  yards - 984,  TD - 5  all great number  for a TE, but all down from his usual numbers.

FFToday current projections rec - 84,  yards - 970,  TD - 7

[Maximum Overkill 1,986]

He's about to be 35 years old. 

When he was bad last season he was horrible. I think those projections are a bit generous. I'd go for younger upside rather than use a fairly high pick on Kelce. 

He's a sell in Dynasty 

[makindollaz 51]

I think he’ll still be a top 2-3 TE for 2024 and maybe 2025.  He’s just not heads-and-shoulders above the rest of the field, or worthy of a top 20 pick anymore.

[IGotWorms 4,058]

Decline for sure

[kilroy69 1,247]

The chiefs have a much better wr corps this year and it should open up more chances for him. 7-10 tds is probably realistic for a bounce back

[nobody 2,667]

I wouldn't be inclined to invest in him.  Besides the age thing, dating someone like Taylor Swift is bound to wear you down.  

[weepaws 3,191]

I draft TEs in the double digit rounds, I’ve never own him, I’ve never missed owning him.  Good luck to those that over spend on the te slot. 

[Ray_T 753]

6 hours ago, IGotWorms said:

Decline for sure

I dont think there is any doubt he is in decline.

historically there have not been a lot of TE's who put up top 5 numbers beyond the age of 31.

and at his age, the only one who has put up top 10 numbers was Tony Gonzalez.    Granted he may be the best of all time, so its possible he has one more elite year in him.

I'm just not betting on that at his current ADP.  I will let someone else take that risk

[kilroy69 1,247]

He lead ALL tight ends in pretty much everything last year except Tds. . In a year that was not even that great for KC

[Ray_T 753]

43 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

He lead ALL tight ends in pretty much everything last year except Tds. . In a year that was not even that great for KC

yeah but 80% of where he was 2 years ago is better than likely all but one or two TE's in the NFL.   and he has the better QB.

so I figure thats still a fair comment to say he is in decline.

no shame in it.   it is what it is.   but we know where he was late last season what we dont know is where he is now after a few months off.

I still think he will be a top 10 TE.   likely even top 5.   I just dont know that hes gonna be top 3.   He likely will.   but its not a lock like it was in past years.

[DocNiner 70]

The physicality the game has definitely had an effect on him. Yet he seemed to come alive in the playoffs. I.think you can pretty.much see.a repeat of his 2023 numbers. With the added receivers for KC he won't have to be the focus and carry the load. Which for him is probably a good thing. Kind of preserve his body during the regular season then turn it up a notch during the playoffs where he excels. Still think he can finish top 10 for TE's. I could see 600-700 yds. and 5 tds. during the season.

[gcmmidwest 149]

Hearing a lot of chatter about Jared Wiley 

[wolves111 106]

Don’t like him as a person. That aside I’d take him no earlier than the 8th round after securing rbs, wrs, and a qb. 
After 30 years of doing FF I still have difficulty keeping personal feelings from affecting my decisions. Probably would have won more leagues but sometimes it’s worth it.

[weepaws 3,191]

I’ve never meet him, so don’t/know if I like him or not.  A lot of players I’ve meet I liked, even though I wasn’t sure I would have, but away from the big spot light, there just people.  

[kilroy69 1,247]

27 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

Don’t like him as a person. That aside I’d take him no earlier than the 8th round after securing rbs, wrs, and a qb. 
After 30 years of doing FF I still have difficulty keeping personal feelings from affecting my decisions. Probably would have won more leagues but sometimes it’s worth it.

He just seems like a frat guy. I like his brother way better. I like to watch their new heights podcast. They are pretty funny together and Jason seems like you could drink a beer with and have fun chatting. 

[Super Cubs 154]

I've had him in my keeper since 2015 and no complaints. I have to move someone and I think I can get better return on Kelce than the others.  

[weepaws 3,191]

Seems like the right time to move Kielce, would indeed be now. 

[GobbleDog 996]

I think Kelse will be solid, but the Te position is so DEEP this year. If ya pass on La Porta and Kelse in the early rounds, between rounds 4 to 7 there will be numerous solid Te options: McBride, Andrews, Kincaid, Engram, Kittle, Pitts, Ferguson. If there was ever a year to wait a bit on a TE, this is it.

I'm particularly interested in Pitts who's disappointed so many times, he's now falling to rounds 5/6. Yet this is probably the best opportunity he's ever had - 4th season, Cousins at qb (made Hockenson great), new pass-happy coordinator, less Te competition (Jonnu Smith gone).  Looks like value.

[Ray_T 753]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

I think Kelse will be solid, but the Te position is so DEEP this year. If ya pass on La Porta and Kelse in the early rounds, between rounds 4 to 7 there will be numerous solid Te options: McBride, Andrews, Kincaid, Engram, Kittle, Pitts, Ferguson. If there was ever a year to wait a bit on a TE, this is it.

I'm particularly interested in Pitts who's disappointed so many times, he's now falling to rounds 5/6. Yet this is probably the best opportunity he's ever had - 4th season, Cousins at qb (made Hockenson great), new pass-happy coordinator, less Te competition (Jonnu Smith gone).  Looks like value.

Shhh.   keep this quiet.

yes, pits quietly looks like a good value pick at his ADP

[weepaws 3,191]

Double digit rounds is were the value is when it comes to drafting a te, and then you stream.  

[GobbleDog 996]

7 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Double digit rounds is were the value is when it comes to drafting a te, and then you stream.  

Not many years ago I used to think the exact same way, but I've changed my tune. When it's late in the season and I'm in a must-win game to either make the playoffs or advance... I want one of the top Te's rather than some scrub I found off waivers who's dud-game chances are high.

I'm not nearly as concerned as I used to be over the opportunity cost of using a 4th/5th/6th rounder on a Te. The Rb position is inherently so volatile (injury/variance) compared to every other position and you can easily load up in later rounds and end up with a few Rbs who eventually pan out. But I totally understand your mentality.... used to feel like it was a wasted pick on an early Te.

[Ray_T 753]

45 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Not many years ago I used to think the exact same way, but I've changed my tune. When it's late in the season and I'm in a must-win game to either make the playoffs or advance... I want one of the top Te's rather than some scrub I found off waivers who's dud-game chances are high.

I'm not nearly as concerned as I used to be over the opportunity cost of using a 4th/5th/6th rounder on a Te. The Rb position is inherently so volatile (injury/variance) compared to every other position and you can easily load up in later rounds and end up with a few Rbs who eventually pan out. But I totally understand your mentality.... used to feel like it was a wasted pick on an early Te.

I think it depends on the TE depth that particular year.

I waited to the double digit rounds in the July mock last year and I personally believe it cost me.   there just were not enough productive TE's available at the time to warrant the strategy.

dont get me wrong, I've done well with this strategy in the past, but it just didnt work out for me last go. 

if you have 8 good TE's you need to start thinking about a TE when 5 or 6 have gone off the board.

if there are 10+ good TE you can likely afford to wait a bit.     with a fair number of new TE prospects being drafted I suspect this strategy will be a good one for a couple years but we may be at the end of that window where you need to take one a little earlier.   maybe round 8 or so

obviously it depends also on the size of your league.   in a 10 teamer, you can wait longer than you can in a 12 teamer.

[weepaws 3,191]

Last season I ended the season with Laporta, And Ferguson, Ferguson I drafted in the double digit rounds, Laporta was drafted , but let go after week 2, I’m pretty sure that owner had Chubb on their team, so they had two TEs.  

The key to drafting a te or Qb late into the double digit rounds, is Streaming until you land a better one.  

Enjoy playing ff that way.  

[DocNiner 70]

Probably would like him a little more except for having to watch all the screen shots and drama with his celebrity girl toy, Taylor Swift. They pay way to much attention on getting her FaceTime  which.detracts from the game. I also think his involvement with her has affected his play regardless of him getting older and his play/production heading downwards. I truly believe the Chiefs WON'T 3-peat and this could likely be.his last year before he rides of in the sunset with his glamor girl.

[Maximum Overkill 1,986]

4 hours ago, weepaws said:

The key to drafting a te or Qb late into the double digit rounds, is Streaming until you land a better one.  

You never wait on a QB. There's only a handful that make a difference. 

[weepaws 3,191]

15 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

You never wait on a QB. There's only a handful that make a difference. 

That’s not true, I never draft one before one should. I always draft one Qb in the double digit rounds, and Then Stream until I land a winner.  It works every season since 1988.  

[Maximum Overkill 1,986]

7 minutes ago, weepaws said:

.  It works every season since 1988.  

Damn, you've won every league since 1988? That has to be a record 

[weepaws 3,191]

6 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Damn, you've won every league since 1988? That has to be a record 

Up to about six years ago, I used to be in ten high money leagues, ranging from Nevada, Oregon, California, Colorado, live draft leagues, so yea I have won leagues every year.  Last six years two leagues.  The league I’ve been in since 88, I won three straight seasons, finish third last season hth, But first in total points. The other I had won two straight, finished third in that one last season,finished third  in total points.  Yea taking my Qb in the double digit rounds, it works. There is never a need to draft a Qb/te/kicker/def until ones last four picks,  and then stream.  

Thanks, HTH. 

[Ray_T 753]

The value of the QB position seems to have increased over the last decade or so.

and some leagues now exist where the rules make it so QB's do have more value.     when I did my post mortem on the july mock,  all the top teams had a top QB.   granted not all those top QB were early round picks, but the majority of them were.   

so you can still have success drafting a QB late, but you have to be one of the one or two teams who hits on one late.   

its both a know your league thing, but its also a know yourself thing.

if you are the type who will do your research you can increase your chances of hitting on a QB late.    but if you are the type who doesnt do their research, you may be better advised to grab one earlier if you feel good production at the position is important (based on the rules of your league)

 

[weepaws 3,191]

Qb slot is a game of roulette.  And I like playing it that way, same as te, kicker, def.  

[Maximum Overkill 1,986]

5 hours ago, weepaws said:

Qb slot is a game of roulette

No, it's not. It's very definitive and by far the easiest position to rank year to year. 

[GobbleDog 996]

2 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

No, it's not. It's very definitive and by far the easiest position to rank year to year. 

Agreed. Not nearly as much variance or injuries. Still get some surprises... Prescott top 3 / Herbert 17th.

I have the same take on drafting Qbs as I do Te - late in the season when I'm in a must-win game to either make the playoffs or advance, I want a Qb/Te who's much less likely to end up with a dud game. Don't mind spending some early draft capital to help make that happen, especially when I know I can shotgun the middle/later rounds and get startable Rbs, along with mining waivers. Rbs have the highest variance anyway so early picks don't often produce results equivalent to the draft capital invested. Might as well invest some in positions more likely to help throughout the season and could be crucial in, or near, the playoffs.

[weepaws 3,191]

11 hours ago, weepaws said:

Qb slot is a game of roulette.  And I like playing it that way, same as te, kicker, def.  

 

5 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

No, it's not. It's very definitive and by far the easiest position to rank year to year. 

Yes it is, I draft one late, stream until I find a winner.  Roulette.  Thanks. 

[JagFan 162]

On 6/11/2024 at 9:07 PM, Ray_T said:

The value of the QB position seems to have increased over the last decade or so.

and some leagues now exist where the rules make it so QB's do have more value.     when I did my post mortem on the july mock,  all the top teams had a top QB.   granted not all those top QB were early round picks, but the majority of them were.   

so you can still have success drafting a QB late, but you have to be one of the one or two teams who hits on one late.   

its both a know your league thing, but its also a know yourself thing.

if you are the type who will do your research you can increase your chances of hitting on a QB late.    but if you are the type who doesnt do their research, you may be better advised to grab one earlier if you feel good production at the position is important (based on the rules of your league)

 

All of the top teams had a top QB based on what?  

[Ray_T 753]

3 minutes ago, JagFan said:

All of the top teams had a top QB based on what?  

fantasy points of course.  what else would I base it on?

[JagFan 162]

6 hours ago, Ray_T said:

fantasy points of course.  what else would I base it on?

That’s what I thought you meant, and it’s a misleading statement.  You should qualify that to state based on your projections.  It’s just an assumption on your part, unless you have a magic 8 ball.  Do you also have this week’s lottery numbers?

[Ray_T 753]

7 hours ago, JagFan said:

That’s what I thought you meant, and it’s a misleading statement.  You should qualify that to state based on your projections.  It’s just an assumption on your part, unless you have a magic 8 ball.  Do you also have this week’s lottery numbers?

dude, Im not talking about future drafts.   in the July Mock thread on here I put up a post mortem analysis.   basically outlining who won and what the common themes were among those teams who finished top 5 (might have been top 6)

to make it easier I am posting the link here

one of those themes was that every member of the top 6 of that Mock had a top QB.    feel free to go read the article.  its a good read.   I think there may even be a link to the scoring page of the draft as well.   I'd be happy to answer any questions you have regarding it.

keep in mind it is only one draft so maybe the draft bucked the general trend but all the mockers finishing in the top 6 had a top 12 qB on their roster (in many cased they had 2)

I think its significant.  surprised me as I went RB early in the draft but did draft Herbert early (ish)  but not in round 1   so the bottom line is, I think you need a top 12 QB to have a good shot at winning.  (preferably top 6)   and if you dont hit on one, the odds dont seem to be great.

 

[weepaws 3,191]

Yea having a Qb finish in the top 12 is very important, and top six is great.  But one doesn’t need to draft one in the early rds.  

Love/Purdy/ Goff , all three of them scored more ff points than Mahomes.  

And besides those three , S Howell, And Mayfield finished in the top 12.  Five double digit round qbs.  

Once again , you just don’t draft a Qb in the double digit rounds, But you stream until you find a winner.  

[Ray_T 753]

3 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Yea having a Qb finish in the top 12 is very important, and top six is great.  But one doesn’t need to draft one in the early rds.  

I'm not saying you do.

what I'm saying is if you do your research (as you likely do) you can get away with picking a QB late.

but lots of people dont do their own research.  what about them?   if you dont know who the good late round candidates are, the smarter move is to draft one earlier to make sure you fit into that category (top 12 QB)

that was all I was saying.   Not saying you are wrong.    just saying that strategy wont work for everyone.

[weepaws 3,191]

Didn’t say you did say one had to, my post was about why I do not draft a Qb in the single digit rounds.