Players to Avoid

[gcmmidwest 149]

Who's on your do not draft list ? 

Hollywood (glass) Brown

Justin (sucks) Fields

 

 

[seafoam1 2,802]

16 minutes ago, gcmmidwest said:

Who's on your do not draft list ? 

Hollywood (glass) Brown

Justin (sucks) Fields

 

 

I think those are pretty easy. For Brown, it depends on that criminal  WR they have on the other side and what happens to him. 

For Fields, if he's not slated as a starter you won't have to avoid him. He won't be on anyone's radar other than a deep sleeper pick.

I'm avoiding Elliot on the Cowboys, but so are most people. 

I guess when you talk about avoiding guys, it's top tier guys that matter. I'm avoiding Christian McCaffrey. 339 touches last year? Fock no. I'm out at his price.

Right now I'm out on Chase cause I don't know what is going on there in Cincinnati. Maybe in on Higgens, especially as a keeper prospect in my main auction league.

I may be out on Kyren Williams at his price and the presence of Corum, and if I take James Conner I better get Trey Benson.

Well, just me....

 

[gcmmidwest 149]

25 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

I think those are pretty easy. For Brown, it depends on that criminal  WR they have on the other side and what happens to him. 

For Fields, if he's not slated as a starter you won't have to avoid him. He won't be on anyone's radar other than a deep sleeper pick.

I'm avoiding Elliot on the Cowboys, but so are most people. 

I guess when you talk about avoiding guys, it's top tier guys that matter. I'm avoiding Christian McCaffrey. 339 touches last year? Fock no. I'm out at his price.

Right now I'm out on Chase cause I don't know what is going on there in Cincinnati. Maybe in on Higgens, especially as a keeper prospect in my main auction league.

I may be out on Kyren Williams at his price and the presence of Corum, and if I take James Conner I better get Trey Benson.

Well, just me....

 

Think your right on kyren...,I'd rather have corum

Diggs burnt me last year

[seafoam1 2,802]

8 minutes ago, gcmmidwest said:

Think your right on kyren...,I'd rather have corum

Diggs burnt me last year

That's rough. Some of these guy have so much need to feed their ego on a national scale that they turn into whining pieces of turd. I like to avoid them. Yet that said, some of them whine so much they get the attention of the QB. That could be the case in NY with that new dude Nabers. That guy demands the ball or he will blow the team up. I'm betting he gets the ball a lot if Daniel Jones can throw anymore and if Nabers doesn't get blown to bits over the middle of the field. 

[gcmmidwest 149]

Diggs actually looks alright on paper... But I wasn't impressed he wasn't getting any separation and Allen was force feeding him

[GobbleDog 984]

Of course any player is draftable if they fall far enough, but some high ranking players that would have to fall 3 rounds before I'd consider them...

Rb 6 Saquon Barkley -  for reasons previously discussed. My pick for '24 Bust of the Year.

Wr 9 Marvin Harrison - yall do know he's a rookie, right? And Kyler Murray is Qb.?. Ok then.

Rb 9 Devon Achane - only Rb in this range who won't get 150 carries, even if he could stay healthy.

[gcmmidwest 149]

I'm drinking the Marvin Harrison Kool aid  ,

But you got a valid point w/ Kyler I have no faith in him 

[GobbleDog 984]

13 minutes ago, gcmmidwest said:

Kyler I have no faith in him 

That's the clincher. If it was Mahomes or Burrow or some great passer, maybe.

We'll see if his elite talent can overcome being a rookie and playing for Murray. If he does it, I'll eat crow and give you all the props.

[weepaws 3,157]

Gibbs And Jefferson And Nauca.  

Conner And Evans , that’s it for now.  

Carry on. 

[weepaws 3,157]

Any Qb, Te, Kicker, Defense in the single digit rounds.  

Carry on once again. 

[polecatt 474]

I've done several mock drafts at all different picks 1 through 10 or 12.

It's crazy how no matter what pick I have, I end up with a team that looks very similar.  Really, past the first round, I pick the same 2-3 players or so each round.

The only players I never end up with are-

Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Sam LaPorta, Jalen Hurts, or Joe Burrow.

It's not that I have any of those guys specifically on a do not draft list. They just always get selected way before I would pick them.

[gcmmidwest 149]

5 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Gibbs And Jefferson And Nauca.  

Conner And Evans , that’s it for now.  

Carry on. 

Yup I'll take kupp over nacua

[GobbleDog 984]

4 minutes ago, polecatt said:

The only players I never end up with are-

Jahmyr Gibbs

Gibbs finished Rb 8 (Rb 7 ppg). He did it by scoring 11 total Tds - two of which came in games Monty was out.

He's currently Rb 6. Gonna have to score another 11 or more Tds to justify that adp. Could be tough considering he doesn't get much goal line work.

[nobody 2,564]

Jaylen Waddle - I don't quite understand why everyone thinks Waddle deserves to be going as a WR2.  He's scored over 10 fantasy points in non-PPR 3 times last year and averaged 8.7 points per game.  You can get that from Amari Cooper a round later, and he isn't 180 pounds and an injury risk.

[seafoam1 2,802]

8 minutes ago, nobody said:

Jaylen Waddle - I don't quite understand why everyone thinks Waddle deserves to be going as a WR2.  He's scored over 10 fantasy points in non-PPR 3 times last year and averaged 8.7 points per game.  You can get that from Amari Cooper a round later, and he isn't 180 pounds and an injury risk.

In my ppr league last year he had 10 weeks over 10 points (barely over 10 points many weeks) and only finished as WR 33. I'll have no shares of him if he goes as a top 20 pick. 

[seafoam1 2,802]

27 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Gibbs finished Rb 8 (Rb 7 ppg). He did it by scoring 11 total Tds - two of which came in games Monty was out.

He's currently Rb 6. Gonna have to score another 11 or more Tds to justify that adp. Could be tough considering he doesn't get much goal line work.

I'll take montgomery much later if the pick presents itself. Swift is a guy I'll take a chance on in the Bears setup. And not because I'm a homer. I had him last year as well. 

[JagFan 149]

9 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

In my ppr league last year he had 10 weeks over 10 points (barely over 10 points many weeks) and only finished as WR 33. I'll have no shares of him if he goes as a top 20 pick. 

He was hurt last year.  Not saying he’ll be any better this year, but he was limping on the sideline all year.

[seafoam1 2,802]

Just now, JagFan said:

He was hurt last year.  Not saying he’ll be any better this year, but he was limping on the sideline all year.

Yep. I think he can be really good, but I probably won't chance it unless he drops a bit. 

[polecatt 474]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

Gibbs finished Rb 8 (Rb 7 ppg). He did it by scoring 11 total Tds - two of which came in games Monty was out.

He's currently Rb 6. Gonna have to score another 11 or more Tds to justify that adp. Could be tough considering he doesn't get much goal line work.

He almost always goes in the first round in the mock drafts I do, or early 2nd. I just never feel good drafting him there.

I think he's a very talented player, but I think maybe the hype with him, and the Lions in general may be a bit much.

They're a team that I wouldn't be surprised if they come back down to Earth a little this season. Some of their players that scored 10-11 TDs last season may drop back to 7 or 8.  Goff is known to have an off season after a big one too. I'm not saying they're gonna suck but they may not be as good as last season

[weepaws 3,157]

Gibbs hammy injury, D Montgomery has a great ADP. 

[weepaws 3,157]

1 hour ago, nobody said:

Jaylen Waddle - I don't quite understand why everyone thinks Waddle deserves to be going as a WR2.  He's scored over 10 fantasy points in non-PPR 3 times last year and averaged 8.7 points per game.  You can get that from Amari Cooper a round later, and he isn't 180 pounds and an injury risk.

Four times over ten points.  His avg was better than, Rice, Olave, Pittman. 

[kilroy69 1,216]

 Devon Achane. Zero chance I am picking him anywhere near what his adp

[JagFan 149]

13 hours ago, weepaws said:

Any Qb, Te, Kicker, Defense in the single digit rounds.  

Carry on once again. 

Yep.  I’m avoiding all QBs until week 3 waivers

[GobbleDog 984]

Not avoiding, but need to fall a round or two...

Rb 13 Jacobs ... high-millage Rb coming off poor metrics.

Rb 16 Mixon  ... see Jacobs

Rb 20 Conner ... had a career year, but old, often injured, and they drafted Benson. Seems more a 1st half rental.

Wr 13 Pittman ... I have serious concerns about his Qb's passing skills.

Wr 19 DJ Moore ... great talent, but sure benefited from Bear's lack of talent last year. Not the case now, with a rookie Qb to boot.

Te 3 McBride ... Te 8 last year. Great second half, while most other options were injured (Ertz, Hollywood, Wilson).

Qb 6 Stroud ... greatest rookie season ever finishing Qb 11 in pt/gm. Might regress, might get better - but Qb 6 better? 

[Ray_T 740]

19 hours ago, gcmmidwest said:

Hollywood (glass) Brown

hes not on my DND list, but I dont have him high on my pickup list.   he has to fall far enough in the draft to be worth it.   and a lot of people are drafting him far earlier than he should be.   so while I have him down on my list, it is unlikely that i end up with any shares of him this year

[Ray_T 740]

2 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

high-millage Rb coming off poor metrics.

I'm always careful when using this as a reason.    its fine to look at the metrics, but I also like to see what conditions existed that caused the metrics to be bad.   sometimes you see the cause, sometimes not.

in the case of Mixon, (for example) he was playing on a team with a bad O line the last couple years.  then when his QB went down last year, the metrics for much of the offense was worse.  teams took advantage of that bad line frequently and early down run blitz turns into a pass blitz if its not a run play and the backup QB wasnt always up to the task to make them pay for this.

hes in a far better place now where the run game will be more effective.   Im not predicting an explosion of fantasy performance but I think he will be at least as good and likely a bit better than last year.

just food for your thoughts.  you are not wrong about the metrics for the players you mentioned.  but you should try to go one step further in your analysis.  might lead you to some better conclusions

[GobbleDog 984]

20 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

in the case of Mixon, (for example) he was playing on a team with a bad O line the last couple years.  then when his QB went down last year, the metrics for much of the offense was worse.  teams took advantage of that bad line frequently and early down run blitz turns into a pass blitz if its not a run play and the backup QB wasnt always up to the task to make them pay for this.

I'll give ya Jacobs might've just had a bad year on a bad team. Mixon's metrics have been poor for years now. His last semi-decent year was '19 and he was still just 4.1 ypc. He's been fantasy valuable simply though sheer volume on the high-scoring Bengals. I will say I've heard "experts" talk about Mixon's time in Cinci and apparently they consistently ran him up the gut - play after play for years, which probably hurt his yac, but those are also some really punishing carries. And he had a lot of them.

[Ray_T 740]

1 minute ago, GobbleDog said:

I'll give ya Jacobs might've just had a bad year on a bad team. Mixon's metrics have been poor for years now. His last semi-decent year was '19 and he was still just 4.1 ypc. He's been fantasy valuable simply though sheer volume on the high-scoring Bengals. I will say I've heard "experts" talk about Mixon's time in Cinci and apparently they consistently ran him up the gut - play after play for years, which probably hurt his yac, but those are also some really punishing carries. And he had a lot of them.

you are not wrong.  and those runs also became very predictable.  hard to stop a RB from getting at least 3 yards on the play on first down if the play is setup right but that also hurts the metrics.   if the D knows what to defend, those are hard miles.   and he got 4 YPC anyway.

while that isnt fantastic I'd say behind that line its pretty solid.  

[DrG 102]

As a 49er fan, avoiding CMC, Kittle and Aiyuk. CMC wore down last year, Trent Williams holdout a concern as is Aiyuk’s. Kittle had core muscle surgery last year. 

Nacua and Williams on the Rams. 
Herbert and that plantar injury. Plus I think they run more anyways with Harbaugh.

[Chickie 74]

JJ with the Vikes and JJMac’s pending knee surgery. Sam Darnold is gonna be flinging the ball to JJ? I’ll pass as a mid first round selection.

[weepaws 3,157]

Jacobs has top ten potential with the packers, Mixon the same.  I like both of them. 

[kilroy69 1,216]

d'andre swift. He will be broken by the 3rd game. 

[weepaws 3,157]

If Swift isn’t broken I’ll take him on my ppr team as a rb3.  

[Lake209 43]

On 8/13/2024 at 4:41 PM, weepaws said:

Jacobs has top ten potential with the packers, Mixon the same.  I like both of them. 

Re: Jacobs.  Like him too; think his ADP is right...could be a few spots too low even. 

Except:  A drawback maybe (?) worth considering is that, at least preseason, he plays against one of the toughest schedules in the NFL.  For example, compare to Rachaad White, who is supposed to have a highly favorable schedule.  I "want" to draft Jacobs for his talent and the team he plays on.  White is a fine pick - but I can't get excited for upside.

Does 'strength of schedule' drop Jacobs a few spots?  Thoughts?

[Lake209 43]

Avoiding *at ADP* :

Deebo Samuel (*if Aiyuk remains a 49er), Jayden Reed, Rico Dowdle, Zach Moss, Kyle Pitts, Kyler Murray, Jayden Daniels.

[GobbleDog 984]

37 minutes ago, Lake209 said:

Avoiding *at ADP* :

Deebo Samuel (*if Aiyuk remains a 49er), Jayden Reed, Rico Dowdle, Zach Moss, Kyle Pitts, Kyler Murray, Jayden Daniels.

I can agree with most of those...  not sure on Pitts, but I understand the trepidation.

However... Zach Moss     Might want to rethink that one. Guess it comes down to how much Chase Brown hype you believe. I don't buy any of it. I foresee Moss as the main ball carrier for the high-scoring Bengals - and if so, look what washed up Mixon did. I want a piece of that and the adp is dirt cheap - thanks to Chase Brown hype.

[weepaws 3,157]

1 hour ago, Lake209 said:

Re: Jacobs.  Like him too; think his ADP is right...could be a few spots too low even. 

Except:  A drawback maybe (?) worth considering is that, at least preseason, he plays against one of the toughest schedules in the NFL.  For example, compare to Rachaad White, who is supposed to have a highly favorable schedule.  I "want" to draft Jacobs for his talent and the team he plays on.  White is a fine pick - but I can't get excited for upside.

Does 'strength of schedule' drop Jacobs a few spots?  Thoughts?

Great comparison, you know when it’s a tough one like this, I look st Doug’s board, He Jacobs ranked rb9 ppr, White 18th.  I’ll take Jacobs.  

[Lake209 43]

Forgot to add: Zay Flowers.  I just….can’t…

[LaChup 228]

As soon as I saw Travis walk into Arrowhead with Morgan Wallen, I was out on him. She needs to break up with him.

[GobbleDog 984]

4 hours ago, Lake209 said:

Forgot to add: Zay Flowers.  I just….can’t…

Lamar Jackson has played six seasons... the highest any of his Wr's has ever finished... '21 Hollywood Brown - 22nd.

Flowers did finish 25th last year (not bad for a rookie), but would that have happened if Andrews hadn't gotten injured? Probably not.