Should Jeanty really be taken as top 5 rb?

[proyce 0]

I see Jeanty ranked very highly pretty much everywhere. The problem I see is that the Raiders defense is abysmal, the offense mediocre or slightly above average. Raiders will be playing from behind alot. How is Jeanty supposed to get his 300 carries? I just don't see the Raiders offense moving the chains enough to get Jeanty the yards and touchdowns folks are projecting. Yes, he will probably be an excellent running back, but I just don't see tons opportunity on this Raiders team.

Convince me otherwise please, before my draft on August 28.

[polecatt 478]

I wouldn't take him as a top 5 RB...

Top 10? Perhaps...

Top 5, no way.

The Raiders aren't exactly great on offense, but they're serviceable. They should be able to move the ball okay and give him the opportunity to score a few TDs.

[weepaws 3,191]

Top five Rbs produce 10 plus tds, and I’m not sold that Jeanty can produce that many with the Raiders.  

But, he’s also on an island, he’s going to get a lot of touches, even in the passing game, top five not me for this upcoming season, #10 I’m in.  

[makindollaz 51]

I’m drafting #5 in a startup keeper PPR league and debating about taking him there or going with someone more proven like Puka.  I’m assuming Chase, JJ, Bijan & Gibbs will be gone in some order.

[JagFan 164]

1 hour ago, makindollaz said:

I’m drafting #5 in a startup keeper PPR league and debating about taking him there or going with someone more proven like Puka.  I’m assuming Chase, JJ, Bijan & Gibbs will be gone in some order.

Henry

[polecatt 478]

2 hours ago, makindollaz said:

I’m drafting #5 in a startup keeper PPR league and debating about taking him there or going with someone more proven like Puka.  I’m assuming Chase, JJ, Bijan & Gibbs will be gone in some order.

CeeDee...

[jrokh 608]

3 hours ago, makindollaz said:

I’m drafting #5 in a startup keeper PPR league and debating about taking him there or going with someone more proven like Puka.  I’m assuming Chase, JJ, Bijan & Gibbs will be gone in some order.

In a startup keeper, I would absolutely take Jeanty at 5, and I wouldn't think twice about it.....

[JagFan 164]

What’s it cost you to keep a player next year?

[weepaws 3,191]

Keeper I would take him in the top five.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,545]

20 hours ago, proyce said:

I see Jeanty ranked very highly pretty much everywhere. The problem I see is that the Raiders defense is abysmal, the offense mediocre or slightly above average. Raiders will be playing from behind alot. How is Jeanty supposed to get his 300 carries? I just don't see the Raiders offense moving the chains enough to get Jeanty the yards and touchdowns folks are projecting. Yes, he will probably be an excellent running back, but I just don't see tons opportunity on this Raiders team.

Convince me otherwise please, before my draft on August 28.

 

17 hours ago, polecatt said:

I wouldn't take him as a top 5 RB...

Top 10? Perhaps...

Top 5, no way.

The Raiders aren't exactly great on offense, but they're serviceable. They should be able to move the ball okay and give him the opportunity to score a few TDs.

Something I heard today on the fantasy sports channel (I think it was Jeff Mans), is that he thinks that Jeanty may be in contention with Bowers, for the most targets on the team.

Last year, between Ameer Abdullah, Sincere McCormick, Alexander Mattison, Zamir White tallied about 300 carries and totaled around 1100 yards (3.6 ypc).  I don't see why with 220 carries, White can't average 4.0 (at worst).  From that standpoint, you're looking at 880 yards.  They never addressed the hole at WR, so lets say that Mans might be right.  Lets give Jeanty 115 targets (Bowers had 153 last year), and 75 receptions while averaging 7 yards per reception.  You're talking about a RB with 1400 yards and 75 receptions.  That's 215 fantasy points without taking into account TD's.  Last year, that would be RB19.  Give him 10 TD's, now he's at RB7.  I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that he could be a top 5 RB.

[LaChup 233]

Travis Henry

[JagFan 164]

2 minutes ago, LaChup said:

Travis Henry

They’re still saying he will play primarily on offense.  I could see them scheming plenty of touches both receiving and rushing.  Dude is a weapon.

[Maximum Overkill 1,988]

Top 5, hell YES!!! 

HE'S GOT THE ENTIRE BACKFIRE TO HIMSELF. 

[weepaws 3,191]

4 hours ago, JagFan said:

They’re still saying he will play primarily on offense.  I could see them scheming plenty of touches both receiving and rushing.  Dude is a weapon.

You talking about Travis Henry or Travis Hunter. Henry is a retired former rb, Hunter currently plays for the Jags? 

[JagFan 164]

5 hours ago, weepaws said:

You talking about Travis Henry or Travis Hunter. Henry is a retired former rb, Hunter currently plays for the Jags? 

Wow, you’d think I’d have caught that.  Sucks getting old!

[Showboat 256]

15 hours ago, weepaws said:

You talking about Travis Henry or Travis Hunter. Henry is a retired former rb, Hunter currently plays for the Jags? 

Clearly Jag was talking about Travis Hunter.  Who knows who Chup was referring to - possibly Derrick Henry or Travis Hunter.  Given the context, the retired Travis Henry is even less likely than Hunter Henry.

[weepaws 3,191]

2 hours ago, Showboat said:

Clearly Jag was talking about Travis Hunter.  Who knows who Chup was referring to - possibly Derrick Henry or Travis Hunter.  Given the context, the retired Travis Henry is even less likely than Hunter Henry.

I’ve been going back and forth with jagfan for a year or two, and I have a lot of respect for his views on ff, my sarcasm was just in fun, and thought jagfan had a classic return about getting old.  

But to make you happy, I will send jagfan an apology, I keep forgetting how sensitive people are on this board.  

[WhiteWonder 2,737]

On 7/7/2025 at 6:30 AM, makindollaz said:

I’m drafting #5 in a startup keeper PPR league and debating about taking him there or going with someone more proven like Puka.  I’m assuming Chase, JJ, Bijan & Gibbs will be gone in some order.

That's wildly different than a redraft. I could see Jeanty going before Bijan or Gibbs if someone believe in him and thinks they will get 2-3 years extra production. Though I think in a dynasty there are a few WRs I would lean toward over any of the RBs. Depends on starting lineup requirements. With 1 flex, I would rather build my team around 3 WRs who will hold their value longer

 

edit to add:  I would be wary of picking Puka that high due to Stafford's age and what will be an unknown QB situation moving forward. CeeDee and Amon Ra stand out to me more in dynasty startup drafts. 

[WhiteWonder 2,737]

On 7/6/2025 at 8:25 PM, proyce said:

I see Jeanty ranked very highly pretty much everywhere. The problem I see is that the Raiders defense is abysmal, the offense mediocre or slightly above average. Raiders will be playing from behind alot. How is Jeanty supposed to get his 300 carries? I just don't see the Raiders offense moving the chains enough to get Jeanty the yards and touchdowns folks are projecting. Yes, he will probably be an excellent running back, but I just don't see tons opportunity on this Raiders team.

Convince me otherwise please, before my draft on August 28.

I'm not sure I see playing from behind as a huge hindrance. After Bowers, Jeanty may find himself getting the most targets in catchup mode. So if you are in PPR, that may actually help him. We all know fantasy is vastly different from reality and garbage time stats count just as much as any. 

As for redraft round 1, I am not yet sure where I would take him. I mostly play in league that still require starting 2 RB which usually has me finishing up the first 2 rounds with an RB on my roster. But I would likely pick a bunch of WRs before him and in terms of RBs alone, Bijan, Barkley, Gibbs, Henry, and unpopular opinion but if I am drafting in late August or around labor day weekend and CMC looks healthy....

So I guess if you zoom in on JUST the RB's I can see him potentially being #5.  Achane, Taylor, Irving, Jacobs? Are any of those options a slam dunk over fresh legs we know will be featured? I wouldn't argue against any of them going before or after Jeanty.  So the 5-10 range seems correct. 

[GobbleDog 996]

Boise State to the NFL and fantasy Rb 5 his rook year... with the Raiders no less.  Not this guy. 

At least Bijan played for Texas. 

[jrokh 608]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

Boise State to the NFL and fantasy Rb 5 his rook year... with the Raiders no less.  Not this guy. 

At least Bijan played for Texas. 

Remind me where Marshall Faulk. Ladanian Tomlinson, and Austin Ekeler went to college. TIA...

[GobbleDog 996]

9 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Remind me where Marshall Faulk. Ladanian Tomlinson, and Austin Ekeler went to college. TIA...

Considering they graduated 100 years ago... Yale?  

[TBayXXXVII 2,545]

How 1st Round RB's have faired in their rookie seasons (source), since 2008...

Year	Pick	Player	Rookie Finish
2018	2	Saquon Barkley	1
2015	10	Todd Gurley	1
2012	31	*Doug Martin	2
2021	24	Najee Harris	3
2015	15	Melvin Gordon	5
2012	3	Trent Richardson	7
2023	8	Bijan Robinson	9
2017	4	Leonard Fournette	9
2017	8	Christian McCaffrey	10
2008	24	Chris Johnson	10
2016	4	Ezekiel Elliott	12
2022	25	Travis Etienne	17
2010	30	Jahvid Best	19
2009	12	Knowshon Moreno	19
2019	24	Josh Jacobs	21
2020	32	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	22
2010	12	Ryan Matthews	32
2008	13	Jonathan Stewart	33
2018	31	Sony Michel	35
2009	31	Beanie Wells	38
2008	4	Darren McFadden	42
2011	28	Mark Ingram	46
2012	32	David Wilson	57
2009	27	Donald Brown	60
2010	9	C.J. Spiller	61
2018	27	Rashaad Penny	67
2008	22	Felix Jones	78
2008	23	Rashard Mendenhall	119

*Doug Martin went to Boise St.

Of the 28 RB's taken in the first round, approximately 39% (11), finished their rookie season as a RB1 (PPR Leagues).

[weepaws 3,191]

So approximately 61% chances he’s not a rb1 in ff.  

[WhiteWonder 2,737]

On 7/10/2025 at 9:01 AM, TBayXXXVII said:

How 1st Round RB's have faired in their rookie seasons (source), since 2008...

Year	Pick	Player	Rookie Finish
2018	2	Saquon Barkley	1
2015	10	Todd Gurley	1
2012	31	*Doug Martin	2
2021	24	Najee Harris	3
2015	15	Melvin Gordon	5
2012	3	Trent Richardson	7
2023	8	Bijan Robinson	9
2017	4	Leonard Fournette	9
2017	8	Christian McCaffrey	10
2008	24	Chris Johnson	10
2016	4	Ezekiel Elliott	12
2022	25	Travis Etienne	17
2010	30	Jahvid Best	19
2009	12	Knowshon Moreno	19
2019	24	Josh Jacobs	21
2020	32	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	22
2010	12	Ryan Matthews	32
2008	13	Jonathan Stewart	33
2018	31	Sony Michel	35
2009	31	Beanie Wells	38
2008	4	Darren McFadden	42
2011	28	Mark Ingram	46
2012	32	David Wilson	57
2009	27	Donald Brown	60
2010	9	C.J. Spiller	61
2018	27	Rashaad Penny	67
2008	22	Felix Jones	78
2008	23	Rashard Mendenhall	119

*Doug Martin went to Boise St.

Of the 28 RB's taken in the first round, approximately 39% (11), finished their rookie season as a RB1 (PPR Leagues).

This needs slightly more explaining, I think.  So PICK is where they were selected in the NFL draft? and Rookie FINISH is where they finished for Fantasy?  If so, then I think we need to at least make some mention of the fact that, aside from Darren McFadden and CJ Spiller, the rest of the RB's drafted in the top 10, went on to have RB1 seasons. ...  Barkley, Gurley, T-Rich, Bijan, Fournette, CMC and Zeke.  So out of the 11 who had RB1 seasons, 7 of them were top 10 draft selections. This would seem to be significant to me, given Jeantys #6 selection. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,545]

17 hours ago, weepaws said:

So approximately 61% chances he’s not a rb1 in ff.  

That's one way to look at it.  I was just giving the data.  @WhiteWonder's conclusion seems more fitting though.  Approximately 64% of the RB's who finished as an RB1, were taken in the top 10... like Jeanty.  Or, 80% of the RB's that were taken in the top 6, finished as an RB1.  Or, 85% taken in the top 8, finished as an RB1.

[weepaws 3,191]

Unless there is an injury a top rb will produce 

[RareN64Dream 21]

On 7/9/2025 at 6:42 PM, jrokh said:

Remind me where Marshall Faulk. Ladanian Tomlinson, and Austin Ekeler went to college. TIA...

San Diego State, TCU and Colorado? I am guessing for Ekeler without cheating.

[RareN64Dream 21]

Just now, RareN64Dream said:

San Diego State, TCU and Colorado? I am guessing for Ekeler without cheating.

I was wrong for Austin Ekeler; but pretty close.

[Ray_T 753]

On 7/6/2025 at 11:23 PM, weepaws said:

Top five Rbs produce 10 plus tds, and I’m not sold that Jeanty can produce that many with the Raiders.  

I'm not sure any RB can do that with the raiders.   Maybe Sequon.  He got 10 in 2022 with the Giants and they were pretty bad too.  (at least their line was)

[MDC 7,425]

After the Top 4 RBs are off the board  I think you can make a case for Jeanty. I have him right there with McCaffrey and Achane at the top of the second tier ahead of Jacobs and Taylor.

The Raiders are bad for sure, but Jeanty is an elite prospect and Pete Carroll will run him into the ground. He’s a mortal lock for 300+ touches.

I’d smash draft that at the 1/2 turn.

[weepaws 3,191]

I think a case for him at # 5 can be made, he’s the best player the Raiders have on offense, he’s going to get a lot of touches, I currently have him at #7;  

[JagFan 164]

Jeanty could be worth it.  Was listening to one of the hosts on Sirius Fantasy.  Analyzing the offensive scheme of the coaching staff against his style and looks like a great fit.  My interest in him is growing