Lamar Miller: Ranked #2 RB on FFToday cheatsheet?

[davesnutz 4]

Wasn't Toby Gerhart ranked in the preseason top tier here one year? Rankings are tricky and risky propositions. We can take them or leave them.

 

With that said, Miller has EVERY opportunity to be a top ff back this season.....and I am buying. He gets better with more touches/game, but Miami could never figure that out.

This thread should have been closed after this. Winner Winner Chicken Dinner! I love all the amazing insight here from everyone, I truly do. Toby Gerhart was a colossal misfire from FFToday, I laughed at it when published and still do. I also think the powers that be need to take a breather from L. Miller and D. Johnson for a bit and remember the season NEVER plays out as hoped. When projecting top 5 at any position, I find it better to be safe than sorry. Stick with the proven commodities over potential and you will rarely get burned (injuries aside, J. Graham aside). Swing for the fences in the later rounds.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

This thread should have been closed after this. Winner Winner Chicken Dinner! I love all the amazing insight here from everyone, I truly do. Toby Gerhart was a colossal misfire from FFToday, I laughed at it when published and still do. I also think the powers that be need to take a breather from L. Miller and D. Johnson for a bit and remember the season NEVER plays out as hoped. When projecting top 5 at any position, I find it better to be safe than sorry. Stick with the proven commodities over potential and you will rarely get burned (injuries aside, J. Graham aside). Swing for the fences in the later rounds.

Well this doesn't make any sense. What proven commodities at running back? The position is an absolute crap shoot and filled with tons of RBBC guys. Let's see if we can find all of these proven running backs that are soooo money

 

AP- very consistent Bell cow who is one of the best of all time. You know he is getting fed the rock.

 

Gurley- he hasn't played a full season yet in the NFL and is on a horrible offense.

 

Leveon Bell- injuries and incidents involving pot make him risky.

 

Devonta Freeman- lost his job to start last year. He played well as a receiving back but struggled a bit as a runner toward the end. He has 1 year under his belt of doing it. He can't be considered proven.

 

David Johnson- I think he is a stud, but I will also agree with you he isn't a proven guy with only about 7ish starts under his belt.

 

Zeke- Rookie

 

Charles- Has torn his ACL twice now and is 30 years old. He is still going early to mid 2nd a lot of the time.

 

Lacy- he gained a ton of weight with uncontrollable eating habits and looked like a fat kid running the ball.

 

Mark Ingram- he missed the last few games of last year, making his season a bit of a disappointment yet again. Honestly he isnt the talent that guys above on this list are. He's a solid power runner. Maybe he still gets a lot of touches, but he has never been great for a whole year.

 

Doug Martin- there was a reason he was falling to the 5th round. After a Stellar two games in his rookie season he never quite lived up to his draft price each year. He finally was good for most of an entire year.

 

Ok so who are all of these slam dunk proven running backs? That's what I thought.

[davesnutz 4]

Okay, I'll bite even though you seem more than capable of answering your own questions. I may not agree with everything you say but will attempt to clarify because I respect your opinion. It is true that you can find a fault with every single player in the NFL. Also, please remember I am not saying Lamar Miller should be out of the top 10, or that he might not finish #1 overall, it indeed is a crap shoot. You did list at least 8 running backs who I feel have as good a chance to succeed and who are not on a new team. Other candidates that have a relatively proven workload capacity (you did mention 10 of the best) include Jonathan Stewart, Matt Forte, Chris Ivory, DeMarco Murray, Frank Gore, CJ Anderson, Jeremy Hill, Latavius Murray, Carlos Hyde. I am not saying I would take any of these guys over Miller, but conversely, knowing that there are so many other options I won't be reaching for him either. Let's just say I am a little more risk averse in the first 2 rounds than you are. I will gladly take the more proven option at that point in the draft. Cheers!

[$epphori$ 118]

Okay, I'll bite even though you seem more than capable of answering your own questions. I may not agree with everything you say but will attempt to clarify because I respect your opinion. It is true that you can find a fault with every single player in the NFL. Also, please remember I am not saying Lamar Miller should be out of the top 10, or that he might not finish #1 overall, it indeed is a crap shoot. You did list at least 8 running backs who I feel have as good a chance to succeed and who are not on a new team. Other candidates that have a relatively proven workload capacity (you did mention 10 of the best) include Jonathan Stewart, Matt Forte, Chris Ivory, DeMarco Murray, Frank Gore, CJ Anderson, Jeremy Hill, Latavius Murray, Carlos Hyde. I am not saying I would take any of these guys over Miller, but conversely, knowing that there are so many other options I won't be reaching for him either. Let's just say I am a little more risk averse in the first 2 rounds than you are. I will gladly take the more proven option at that point in the draft. Cheers!

not sure if your talking about my discussion about Gronk or Miller but to answer your question. Stewart, Forte, Demarco Murray.\, Anderson, Hill, Hyde are all ready keepers. SO that really shorten your list. Again if I draft a RB2 I am getting a RB in the 25 ranked range as apposed to a top 5 RB that I feel Miller will be on a run first Houston team. Plus Miller stays in for 3rd down and gets receptions. I made the trade. Its a done deal Now anyways.

[IGotWorms 3,315]

not sure if your talking about my discussion about Gronk or Miller but to answer your question. Stewart, Forte, Demarco Murray.\, Anderson, Hill, Hyde are all ready keepers. SO that really shorten your list. Again if I draft a RB2 I am getting a RB in the 25 ranked range as apposed to a top 5 RB that I feel Miller will be on a run first Houston team. Plus Miller stays in for 3rd down and gets receptions. I made the trade. Its a done deal Now anyways.

Nobody really cares who the keepers are in your league since it obviously doesn't apply to anyone else's league

[$epphori$ 118]

Nobody really cares who the keepers are in your league since it obviously doesn't apply to anyone else's league

I have been discussing Miller with a few posters since last week on this thread. So you want to decide for me what I can discuss? Is this place so busy with traffic now that my posts are just making it to much for you to sort through? Or is this just a control thing cuz at home your wife dont let you wear the pants?

[stonewall 647]

Food for thought from Roto :

 

Miller has averaged 4.81 YPC over the past two seasons, a two-year mark superior to Le'Veon Bell (4.76), Doug Martin (4.49), Adrian Peterson (4.48),Mark Ingram (4.42), DeMarco Murray (4.35), and LeSean McCoy (4.30).

[$epphori$ 118]

Food for thought from Roto :

 

Miller has averaged 4.81 YPC over the past two seasons, a two-year mark superior to Le'Veon Bell (4.76), Doug Martin (4.49), Adrian Peterson (4.48),Mark Ingram (4.42), DeMarco Murray (4.35), and LeSean McCoy (4.30).

I am feeling good about Miller on a superior rushing offense in the middle of his prime.

[DrG 94]

I thought Miami tried to keep him fresh. Will he be as efficient as a workhorse? How well does Brock throw the screen or the little out pass? I thought Oldtimer's assessment was spot on.

[DrG 94]

Jamaal Charles: 5.5 over his career.

[weepaws 2,460]

I have Miller ranked 5th at this time .

[IGotWorms 3,315]

I have Miller ranked 5th at this time .

Why does anyone care without further analysis?

 

"I have Eli Manning ranked #2!" Oh, okay. Why?

[stonewall 647]

I have him ranked at number 12 on this date 7/17/2016.

 

[weepaws 2,460]

Okay because he will be the fifth best Rb in fantasy football .

 

Thought that's what this site is about .

[weepaws 2,460]

Oh yeah and come next week he might be ranked above or below 5 th i work on y rankings every weekend .

 

Just need to stay on top of things when you are involved in so many leagues .

 

And if I don't my team might look as bad as your mock team ouch .

[weepaws 2,460]

I have Eli ranked 7th .

[Ray_T 591]

Oh yeah and come next week he might be ranked above or below 5 th i work on y rankings every weekend .

 

Just need to stay on top of things when you are involved in so many leagues .

 

And if I don't my team might look as bad as your mock team ouch .

I dont work my rankings that often (yet)

 

I think my last ranking I had him at #9 or #10.

 

I dont see him moving up much more than that. Most likely, that means he will be on someone elses team. And I'm ok with that so long as I can get someone ranked higher on my list.

[weepaws 2,460]

I start working on them right after the draft .

 

And I do update them weekly.

 

Only way I've ever done it

 

I've had Miller ranked as a Rb one most of the time but I'm starting to like him more and more with some of the other news that I've been seeing .

[heavy-set 39]

its opportunity, noting more.

 

doesnt matter how good Hopkins is if Osweiler doesnt hit him when he's open.

 

I'm not saying hes that bad, but there is the possibility that Hopkins does not have as good a year as he had last year.

i would normally agree with this, but hopkins is an awesome talent and had total crap at qb last season. Oswiler may also be crap, but at least he is "the guy" and HOU wont have rotating qbs like last year.

 

as for miller, its all about opportunity. nothing more.

[montana 89]

While I'm not ready to have him ranked #2, I definitely have him in the top 4-6 rbs easily. He has the ability to be a bell cow & should see plenty of opportunities. I understand why there are sceptics based on past performance but I think the blame falls more on the Dolphins than Miller. Wouldnt be the first time we've seen a player change scenery & become super relevant at his position.

[stonewall 647]

Oh yeah and come next week he might be ranked above or below 5 th i work on y rankings every weekend .

 

Just need to stay on top of things when you are involved in so many leagues .

 

And if I don't my team might look as bad as your mock team ouch .

 

Sure, rankings can fluctuate, but 12th to 5th in two weeks? Without an injury, that kinda move this close to draft is uncommon and highly suspect....but to each their own.

 

There's no man alive who can say whether a mock team or drafted team is good or bad until the end of the season. No need to take things personal, wee. I remember when you arrived. Maybe you have too many teams. Maybe this place has jaded you.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

Well the qb last year was pretty pathetic.

 

 

I agree with this post .

 

Good job .

 

It's always a possibility at it would not surprise me .

 

Osweiler and Manning didn't prevent Thomas from being a top 10 PPR WR last year....

[SpenceToons 70]

The color coded strength-of-schedule diagrams that Doug Orth puts out on this site are only up for 24 of the 32 teams so far, but they show that Lamar Miller has the easiest second half of the season, fwiw. Doug Martin looks to be second and I'd call it a tie between Ezekiel Elliott and Adrian Peterson for third

 

 

I dont work my rankings that often (yet)

 

I think my last ranking I had him at #9 or #10.

 

I dont see him moving up much more than that. Most likely, that means he will be on someone elses team. And I'm ok with that so long as I can get someone ranked higher on my list.

 

I've been going back through ADP snapshots I've saved since June, and Miller is usually the RB6 taken off the board, with an occasional RB5 or RB7 (and this was before Bell's suspension). What factors are you weighting, do you think, that have Miller grading out so low ?

[LoOnAtIk 75]

Miami homer here

 

Comparing Miller to Foster is apples to oranges but decent production should still be expected. Where Foster is shiftier and stronger, Miller is much faster albeit one of the knocks on him is that he goes down very easy. Miller does not break many tackles nor does he do too much dancing around. He's a north south down hill runner that if he gets into the secondary he can simply run past defensive backs. A stacked box shouldn't be too unfamiliar to him because Tannehill wasn't beating anyone during his time in Miami.

 

I can see Deandre Hopkins vulturing a lot of short TDs. I envision Miller to see career highs across the board but his TD numbers remain to be seen. I wouldn't be shocked if he finished with just a handful.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I am starting to like him a little more, which means I should stay away. I wanted nothing to do with Hill or Anderson last year but warmed to them a little, more because I thought they would get most of the work. This just feels like them last year, although Miller is more talented imo. If I am in a position to take him I will probably opt for Bell or aim for Lacy/Charles instead. Hopefully someone jumps all over him so I am not tempted.

[$epphori$ 118]

I am starting to like him a little more, which means I should stay away. I wanted nothing to do with Hill or Anderson last year but warmed to them a little, more because I thought they would get most of the work. This just feels like them last year, although Miller is more talented imo. If I am in a position to take him I will probably opt for Bell or aim for Lacy/Charles instead. Hopefully someone jumps all over him so I am not tempted.

Wow you would really draft Lacy? I just dont get how anyone would trust him. He looked horrible last year. Although I have never owned him, from what I have seen I will never ever draft or trade for him.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Wow you would really draft Lacy? I just dont get how anyone would trust him. He looked horrible last year. Although I have never owned him, from what I have seen I will never ever draft or trade for him.

Lacy has looked like a stud before. Weight loss has done wonders for some running backs recently. If he returns to a more nimble runner I don't see why he can't return to top 5 form. Plus he is on a good offense. Always a plus.

[$epphori$ 118]

Lacy has looked like a stud before. Weight loss has done wonders for some running backs recently. If he returns to a more nimble runner I don't see why he can't return to top 5 form. Plus he is on a good offense. Always a plus.

I totally agree on the offense angle. But Lacy again walked into camp overweight. Although he has lost some of that weight the fact he didnt put any effort into weight loss after the season he had is alarming. I know a few guys in my league that are high on him so I get it, some people just stand behind certain players. I just do not trust his work ethic. Now would I wager on him in an eating contest? Hell to the YES. He would tear that bucket of fried chicken up. But in fantasy football I am gonna take my chances elsewhere.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I totally agree on the offense angle. But Lacy again walked into camp overweight. Although he has lost some of that weight the fact he didnt put any effort into weight loss after the season he had is alarming. I know a few guys in my league that are high on him so I get it, some people just stand behind certain players. I just do not trust his work ethic. Now would I wager on him in an eating contest? Hell to the YES. He would tear that bucket of fried chicken up. But in fantasy football I am gonna take my chances elsewhere.

Well the other HUGE reason is this is his big contract year. I would hope that he could refrain from being a fatty for one year so he can get payed. If it wasn't a contract year then I wouldn't be very high on him at all.

[JakeTrain72 0]

I'm actually very high on D Murray this year. He was an awful fit in philly under Kelly's system. He should thrive pretty well in Tennessee

I couldn't disagree more. Lamar Miller's YPC is elite on a team that is built around defense with an unproven quarterback. No way Miller doesn't get tons of touches as a 3-down horse. He's only 25 with only one year with 200+ carries despite being healthy.

 

And Tennessee got nice value for Murray, considering what they trotted out last year, he is a HUGE upgrade for the team. Noted above O-line isn't going to be opening huge holes. The passing game isn't daunting enough to keep defenses from stacking the line. I'd consider Murray a nice RB2 but don't view him as a top 10 RB option for 2016.

 

Between these two, I'll take my chances on the guy with the better defense to allow the team to run the ball in the second half versus the team that could be trailing more often.

[DrG 94]

The table is being set for Miller. Key for me is to see how much he's involved in the passing game I'd like to see that he's used a little more like Jamaal Charles has been used in KC. Putting him on routes underneath Hopkins ought to create some openings.

 

Houston is turf, right? That might help a guy with jets a little too.

[ricanrockers 39]

I like Miller a lot but I want to see a few preseason games where Houston's first team offense plays a few series vs the other team's first team defense. This will give you some insight on how Miller will be used and if he can be productive.

[Ace08 11]

I can't find the posts (and I'm too lazy)....but years ago on this site and other sites I posted my thoughts on Lamar Miller coming out of college and basically said he'd be a good pro. He's pretty much been what I thought he would be. I've been watching Lamar Miller play since his high school days at Killian High school in Miami.

 

I say that to say this...I find this "consensus" that has been created this offseason pegging him as a no brainer top 5 RB and consensus late round 1/ early 2 round pick to be ridiculous. He's got perpetually bad shoulders dating all the way back to his high school days. He also tip toes at the LOS way too much to ever be an "elite" RB in my opinion. His YPC has been propped up by a lot of 3rd and long draws over the years because the Dolphins haven't had consistent QB play during his tenure.

 

He's a good player, has been and will continue to be...I just feel people building their fantasy teams around him this year are in for a major disappointment. I have every reason to root for this kid as he grew up near to me but I simply in good faith can't get behind this "consensus" opinion that's been branded on him this offseason. He's not an elite back and won't be on any of my teams this year due to his ridiculous ADP.

 

He's got good hands so I think his upside is obviously higher in PPR formats but I just don't think he's a great between the tackles runner. Nothing I saw during his Dolphins tenure (and trust me I've watched every carry this kid has taken) changes my opinion on that.

 

I honestly hope I'm wrong on this one. But that's my honest take.

[$epphori$ 118]

I can't find the posts (and I'm too lazy)....but years ago on this site and other sites I posted my thoughts on Lamar Miller coming out of college and basically said he'd be a good pro. He's pretty much been what I thought he would be. I've been watching Lamar Miller play since his high school days at Killian High school in Miami.

 

I say that to say this...I find this "consensus" that has been created this offseason pegging him as a no brainer top 5 RB and consensus late round 1/ early 2 round pick to be ridiculous. He's got perpetually bad shoulders dating all the way back to his high school days. He also tip toes at the LOS way too much to ever be an "elite" RB in my opinion. His YPC has been propped up by a lot of 3rd and long draws over the years because the Dolphins haven't had consistent QB play during his tenure.

 

He's a good player, has been and will continue to be...I just feel people building their fantasy teams around him this year are in for a major disappointment. I have every reason to root for this kid as he grew up near to me but I simply in good faith can't get behind this "consensus" opinion that's been branded on him this offseason. He's not an elite back and won't be on any of my teams this year due to his ridiculous ADP.

 

He's got good hands so I think his upside is obviously higher in PPR formats but I just don't think he's a great between the tackles runner. Nothing I saw during his Dolphins tenure (and trust me I've watched every carry this kid has taken) changes my opinion on that.

 

I honestly hope I'm wrong on this one. But that's my honest take.

I have Miller as my RB2 behind David Johnson. Part of the reason I am interested in him is he is a 3 down RB. He catches the ball well and to find 3 down RB is hard nowadays.Well I should add to find an available every down RB is rare. And the fact he is only 25 years old is huge plus. He has remained healthy since going pro though hasnt he?

[Ace08 11]

I have Miller as my RB2 behind David Johnson. Part of the reason I am interested in him is he is a 3 down RB. He catches the ball well and to find 3 down RB is hard nowadays.Well I should add to find an available every down RB is rare. And the fact he is only 25 years old is huge plus. He has remained healthy since going pro though hasnt he?

 

Trust me I understand the reasoning and logic. It just so happens that this is one player that I've known and been watching longer than most anyone on this board so I just figured I'd chime in with my opinion. That's all it is, one man's opinion....and like I said this is one I'm really hoping I'm wrong on cause I want to see the kid succeed.

 

While he will get every opportunity to be a 3 down back, like you stated, I think ultimately his best role on a team is as a change of pace/ receiving back. I'm just not a huge fan of him as a between-the-tackles back to endorse the ranking he's been getting this offseason. Like I mentioned earlier he's turned into a "tip-toer" during his time in the NFL and often doesn't hit the hole with as much speed and decisiveness as you'd like to see out of an "elite" back.

 

With that said....I think he's got 60-70 catch potential. My argument would simply be that's basically the profile that guys like Woodhead and Duke (another guy I know a lot about) share and you can get them both several rounds cheaper. I know many will argue that neither of those 2 guys will be unquestioned 1st and 2nd down RB's the way Miller will in Houston...but there's a huge difference between opportunity and efficiency. i just don't think Miller will be able to withstand the pounding of being a 3 down back all season.

 

Let's see how it plays out. I just wanted to give a different, unbiased take on a guy who's been hyped to hell this offseason.

[SpenceToons 70]

...I find this "consensus" that has been created this offseason pegging him as a no brainer top 5 RB and consensus late round 1/ early 2 round pick to be ridiculous. He's got perpetually bad shoulders dating all the way back to his high school days. He also tip toes at the LOS way too much to ever be an "elite" RB in my opinion.

 

 

 

 

These "bad shoulders" and "tiptoes at the line of scrimmage" seem to be long-standing objections of yours. But these deficiencies didn't stop him from finishing as the RB6 in 2015 (standard scoring) and the RB9 in 2014.

 

For him to be projected as a top 5 RB for 2016 after finishing as the RB6 in 2015 is not much of a stretch.

[Matt Mueller 146]

 

These "bad shoulders" and "tiptoes at the line of scrimmage" seem to be long-standing objections of yours. But these deficiencies didn't stop him from finishing as the RB6 in 2015 (standard scoring) and the RB9 in 2014.

 

For him to be projected as a top 5 RB for 2016 after finishing as the RB6 in 2015 is not much of a stretch.

 

Weekly he was RB 15 in PPG between Ivory and JStew in 2015.

[Ray_T 591]

 

Trust me I understand the reasoning and logic. It just so happens that this is one player that I've known and been watching longer than most anyone on this board so I just figured I'd chime in with my opinion. That's all it is, one man's opinion....and like I said this is one I'm really hoping I'm wrong on cause I want to see the kid succeed.

 

While he will get every opportunity to be a 3 down back, like you stated, I think ultimately his best role on a team is as a change of pace/ receiving back. I'm just not a huge fan of him as a between-the-tackles back to endorse the ranking he's been getting this offseason. Like I mentioned earlier he's turned into a "tip-toer" during his time in the NFL and often doesn't hit the hole with as much speed and decisiveness as you'd like to see out of an "elite" back.

 

With that said....I think he's got 60-70 catch potential. My argument would simply be that's basically the profile that guys like Woodhead and Duke (another guy I know a lot about) share and you can get them both several rounds cheaper. I know many will argue that neither of those 2 guys will be unquestioned 1st and 2nd down RB's the way Miller will in Houston...but there's a huge difference between opportunity and efficiency. i just don't think Miller will be able to withstand the pounding of being a 3 down back all season.

 

Let's see how it plays out. I just wanted to give a different, unbiased take on a guy who's been hyped to hell this offseason.

as a former Miller owner I watched a few games as they were fantasy relevant for me, and I wasnt thrilled with his between the tackles running either.

 

I also think that because Miami basically ran a passing offense with Tannehill that teams were not keying on the run.

 

In Houston, they may run more, but teams will be expecting them to run more. With the young QB who is still largely unproven, I can see a lot of Defenses stacking the box on the early downs and daring him to throw it.

 

If Osweiler struggles, teams will continue to stack the box until he proves he can beat them throwing the ball. and this, could really hurt Millers YPC numbers.

 

Whether the additional volume makes up for this or not remains to be seen, but I suspect the early part of the season will start slow for Miller.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

 

In Houston, they may run more, but teams will be expecting them to run more. With the young QB who is still largely unproven, I can see a lot of Defenses stacking the box on the early downs and daring him to throw it.

 

If Osweiler struggles, teams will continue to stack the box until he proves he can beat them throwing the ball. and this, could really hurt Millers YPC numbers.

I think Deandre Hopkins proved last year that you cannot stack the box vs Houston. Do NFL teams really respect Lamar Miller that much? I don't think so. At least not yet. Miller needs to have some really good games to open the season for a stacked box situation.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

 

While he will get every opportunity to be a 3 down back, like you stated, I think ultimately his best role on a team is as a change of pace/ receiving back. I'm just not a huge fan of him as a between-the-tackles back to endorse the ranking he's been getting this offseason. Like I mentioned earlier he's turned into a "tip-toer" during his time in the NFL and often doesn't hit the hole with as much speed and decisiveness as you'd like to see out of an "elite" back.

 

With that said....I think he's got 60-70 catch potential. My argument would simply be that's basically the profile that guys like Woodhead and Duke (another guy I know a lot about) share and you can get them both several rounds cheaper. I know many will argue that neither of those 2 guys will be unquestioned 1st and 2nd down RB's the way Miller will in Houston...but there's a huge difference between opportunity and efficiency. i just don't think Miller will be able to withstand the pounding of being a 3 down back all season.

 

I've been watching him since Killian too and I must ask what games have you been watching? Lamar Miller has never been a tip-toer, dance around the line of scrimmage guy. If anything, I would welcome a lil more tip toeing. Miller has always been a 1-cut RB who hits the hole quickly and decisively. Early in his career he would put his head down and try to push piles and it literally made me want to pull my hair out. Or he would run straight into the first defender and go down very easy at first contact. Are we talking about the same Lamar Miller?