Lamar Miller: Ranked #2 RB on FFToday cheatsheet?

[stonewall 647]

His YPC has been propped up by a lot of 3rd and long draws over the years.

 

 

I'll take that.

 

Listen, like every other RB in the league he could certainly bust.....or at least underperform his ADP. Not a stretch to imagine. However, even with an Osweiler, that pass game must be respected. When given ample carries, Miller has shown that he can get er done, sometimes in a big way......and like you mentioned, he can catch the ball. I'm buying.

 

(and I hope he flops in the preseason)

[Ray_T 591]

I think Deandre Hopkins proved last year that you cannot stack the box vs Houston. Do NFL teams really respect Lamar Miller that much? I don't think so. At least not yet. Miller needs to have some really good games to open the season for a stacked box situation.

you are forgetting that Houston is starting the season with a QB who has.... What about 8 or 9 career starts (yes I'm too lazy to count them so this is my best guess)

 

If you are a defense who do you key on? The experienced RB who put up decent (but not spectacular) numbers on a team with a weak O line, or do you key on the QB without a lot of experience?

 

I think you key on the RB. His line will be a bit better, but the QB play may not be.

 

I'm thinking Lots of players stacked in the box, some run blitz's and blitz's from various directions to mix up the QB. some fake blitz packages as well.

 

but what you wanna do, is not give that rookie QB 3rd and short situations. This means stuffing the run if you can. Force the kid to throw at you.

 

If the kid shows he can play, then Millers numbers will improve very quickly.

 

so as I posted before, the first 3-4 games will be tough sledding, but after that Millers YPC will rise if the QB play is good. If the QB play is substandard, it will be a long season for Miller.

[$epphori$ 118]

damn you guys are making me start to second guess Miller. I do not have many options in the position I am in so I may just end up staying put and not grabbing Miller.

[$epphori$ 118]

you are forgetting that Houston is starting the season with a QB who has.... What about 8 or 9 career starts (yes I'm too lazy to count them so this is my best guess)

 

If you are a defense who do you key on? The experienced RB who put up decent (but not spectacular) numbers on a team with a weak O line, or do you key on the QB without a lot of experience?

 

I think you key on the RB. His line will be a bit better, but the QB play may not be.

 

I'm thinking Lots of players stacked in the box, some run blitz's and blitz's from various directions to mix up the QB. some fake blitz packages as well.

 

but what you wanna do, is not give that rookie QB 3rd and short situations. This means stuffing the run if you can. Force the kid to throw at you.

 

If the kid shows he can play, then Millers numbers will improve very quickly.

 

so as I posted From ore, the first 3-4 games will be tough sledding, but after that Millers YPC will rise if the QB play is good. If the QB play is substandard, it will be a long season for Miller.

Bears

Chiefs

Pats

Titans

 

These are his 4 opponents to open the season. I can see two games he rushes for over 100 yards

[LoOnAtIk 75]

you are forgetting that Houston is starting the season with a QB who has.... What about 8 or 9 career starts (yes I'm too lazy to count them so this is my best guess)

 

If you are a defense who do you key on? The experienced RB who put up decent (but not spectacular) numbers on a team with a weak O line, or do you key on the QB without a lot of experience?

 

I think you key on the RB. His line will be a bit better, but the QB play may not be.

 

I'm thinking Lots of players stacked in the box, some run blitz's and blitz's from various directions to mix up the QB. some fake blitz packages as well.

 

but what you wanna do, is not give that rookie QB 3rd and short situations. This means stuffing the run if you can. Force the kid to throw at you.

 

If the kid shows he can play, then Millers numbers will improve very quickly.

 

so as I posted before, the first 3-4 games will be tough sledding, but after that Millers YPC will rise if the QB play is good. If the QB play is substandard, it will be a long season for Miller.

I don't like quoting your huge stories but what were DeAndres #s last year? Can you name his QBs? He's by far their best player on offense and it doesn't matter who's throwing him the ball I think he proved that last year. Not once in your post do you even mention him. As if a defense has to game plan for either a QB or a RB... I'm pretty sure the first person on everyone's scouting report is their best player, which is Hopkins. Forcing Osweiler to throw is risky business as long as Hopkins is running routes.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

Think about what you're saying,

 

Let's try to take away the run game by stacking the box and let Osweiler (and DeAndre Hopkins) try to beat us. I'm no defensive coordinator but that sounds like an awful idea.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

DeAndre is chopped liver now???

 

This is an over thinking thread. I don't like Lamar as high as he's ranked here, but to dismiss a guy who's had success in a pass first offense, with a bad line, while fighting for carries, seems kinda goofy. As someone above posted, this is about putting opportunity, ability, and environment together to make a projection that isn't way out of left field.

[Ray_T 591]

I don't like quoting your huge stories but what were DeAndres #s last year? Can you name his QBs? He's by far their best player on offense and it doesn't matter who's throwing him the ball I think he proved that last year. Not once in your post do you even mention him. As if a defense has to game plan for either a QB or a RB... I'm pretty sure the first person on everyone's scouting report is their best player, which is Hopkins. Forcing Osweiler to throw is risky business as long as Hopkins is running routes.

ok, I'm gonna throw some info back at you.

 

The Starting QB was Hoyer. yes, the underrated Hoyer. I know people dont think much of him on this board, but I took a look at some things.

 

His stats:

 

11 GP, 2606 yards 19 TD and 7 INT. Prorated over 16 games this works out to 3790 yards, 27 TD and 10 INT. this places him in the middle of the pack stats wise.

 

Yes he had a TERRIBLE playoff game.

 

There are things he did right and wrong, but one thing Hoyer did do exceptionally well, was get the ball into the hands of his best WR.

 

Now we go to his replacement who is projected by FFtoday to put up very similar numbers this year. (yes, a couple more TD and a couple more INT's, but overall reasonably close)

 

in Denver he played week 10-17 and was replaced late in the game of week 17 after being ineffective.

 

Look at his #1 WR (Demarius Thomas) in those games.

 

week 10, 71 yards, week 11 59 yards, week 12 36 yards, week 13: 61 yards, week 14, 95 yards, week 15 61 yards, week 16: 59 yards. week 17 117 yards (most of week 17 yards were with Manning at QB)

 

Osweiler does not get the ball into the hands of his #1 WR.

 

as a person who owns DeAndre in a couple of my leagues, this concerns me.

 

so no, I'm not ignoring DeAndre, but I will say, it does not matter how talented the WR is if the QB cannot get him the football.

 

so I will stand by my comments.

 

Keep in mind, this line of thought comes partly because I am not sold on Osweiler and partly because this is an offense with a whole new backfield. New QB, new RB. Last team that did this was Philly last year. Early in the season, that offense looked rough. they played better as the season wore on, but it took some time.

 

It is possible we may see the same thing here. but that really depends on how good Osweiler is. He is not on Denver anymore. and instead of Emmanual Saunders as a #2 WR, he has Cecil Shorts. Yes Will Fuller may step up, but he is a rookie.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

You're flying off on a tangent. I'll keep it simple.

 

A. Look at Hopkins game logs when Hoyer didn't play (STILL BEAST)

 

B. Wtf do all of these stats have anything to do with Lamar Miller?

 

I'm not disagreeing with any of your stats, stats are stats. But to conclude that "Osweiler doesn't throw to his number 1" is ridiculous.

[Ray_T 591]

You're flying off on a tangent. I'll keep it simple.

 

A. Look at Hopkins game logs when Hoyer didn't play (STILL BEAST)

 

B. Wtf do all of these stats have anything to do with Lamar Miller?

 

I'm not disagreeing with any of your stats, stats are stats. But to conclude that "Osweiler doesn't throw to his number 1" is ridiculous.

I was asked why teams woudnt key on the pass game and Hopkins instead of stacking the box.

 

I gave a reason.

 

either way, its clear we arent going to agree on this. You know why I feel the way that I do. Running the ball with a Mediocre QB is not the same as running the ball with a QB who will burn you if you dont respect the pass.

 

You cannot just take Miller out of Miami and plug him into a different offense and say 'the line is better in Houston and they are a better team' and expect his numbers to be top notch.

 

I'm not saying Miller is Crappy. I owned him for a couple of years, and I've seen enough of him because his games were fantasy relevant to me.

I dont think he is top 5.

 

Hes a solid player. Probably a top end RB2 prior to his move to Houston.

 

He is leaving a team with a better QB and a weaker run blocking line to one that has a weaker QB with a one dimensional pass game (hopkins) and a better (but not elite) run blocking line.

 

It could mean a slight bump in numbers, but I dont think this boosts him into the top 5.

 

There are risks that I have pointed out that I think balance his upside to a large degree.

 

Obviously you disagree, and it's your right to do so. I agree Houston will run the ball more, but I also think Millers YPC will drop a bit in this offense. And if the QB Struggles, I still think it would hinder his numbers a lot.

 

anyways, I've thrown my opinion out there, people can accept it(or not). And let's face it, everybody values players differently.

 

If everyone valued Miller as the #2 RB on the board, Millers ADP would be higher and you'd have a harder time getting your player.

 

Last I saw, on average hes not the #2 RB off the board in drafts he's #5 (according to FFtoday's ADP board) and going at the end of round 1, so lots of people think ranking him #2 overall may be excessive.

 

I'm just in the process of reworking my rankings as it's been over a month since I've done it, but the preliminary numbers I have suggest he should be ranked at #8 or #9. That means hes still a solid RB. Just not #2 overall for the position. He may eventually get there. I just dont think this is the year.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

I'm not disagreeing with you completely. I'm just saying DeAndre Hopkins is WAAAAAAY too good for a team to stack the box (against Lamar Miller LMAO). I predict career highs across the board but I'm scared that near the goal line he may lose a bunch of TDs to Hopkins.

 

I certainly wouldn't pick him in a yearly league over Gurley, DJ, or AP. But he's probably in my top 6 or 7 at the position.

[Ray_T 591]

I'm not disagreeing with you completely. I'm just saying DeAndre Hopkins is WAAAAAAY too good for a team to stack the box (against Lamar Miller LMAO). I predict career highs across the board but I'm scared that near the goal line he may lose a bunch of TDs to Hopkins.

 

I certainly wouldn't pick him in a yearly league over Gurley, DJ, or AP. But he's probably in my top 6 or 7 at the position.

lol, well if you have him top 6 or 7 and I have him top 8 or 9, we dont disagree THAT much

 

but as a Hopkins owner, I am actually concerned about the addition of Osweiler. While a stud will always put up some numbers, it is clear that a QB change can make a difference between being an Elite #1 WR and just being a regular #1 WR.

 

The numbers posted by Demarius Thomas with Osweiller at QB were okay, but certainly not elite by any means and that (among other things) leads me to question Whether Osweiler is as good as many say he is.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

But Hopkins was elite last year. With 4 different scrub QBs...

 

You keep pointing at Demaryius' numbers as if he was the only mouth to feed in Denver. They actually had offensive weapons besides Thomas. Last year the Texans only had Hopkins, he was the entire offense and the QB play clearly didn't affect him.

 

Comparing DTs numbers with Osweiler seems illogical because there is no comparison. Osweiler is unknown. What if DT stinks and only rose to greatness thru (dare I say it) the sheriff?

[Kent 228]

But Hopkins was elite last year. With 4 different scrub QBs...

 

You keep pointing at Demaryius' numbers as if he was the only mouth to feed in Denver. They actually had offensive weapons besides Thomas. Last year the Texans only had Hopkins, he was the entire offense and the QB play clearly didn't affect him.

 

Comparing DTs numbers with Osweiler seems illogical because there is no comparison. Osweiler is unknown. What if DT stinks and only rose to greatness thru (dare I say it) the sheriff?

When they benched Osweiler last year he looked like he couldn't play QB at all.

 

Whoever thinks the offense and Miller and Hopkins are immune to this is in denial.

[Matt Mueller 146]

But Hopkins was elite last year. With 4 different scrub QBs...

 

You keep pointing at Demaryius' numbers as if he was the only mouth to feed in Denver. They actually had offensive weapons besides Thomas. Last year the Texans only had Hopkins, he was the entire offense and the QB play clearly didn't affect him.

 

Comparing DTs numbers with Osweiler seems illogical because there is no comparison. Osweiler is unknown. What if DT stinks and only rose to greatness thru (dare I say it) the sheriff?

 

Just to play devil's advocate I think you could argue Hopkins was the only real weapon Houston had last year after Foster went down.

 

Now they get Lamar Miller, Strong coming on, Braxton Miller, Fuller ect and a new QB.

 

I don't think he ends up with 192 targets again personally.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

When they benched Osweiler last year he looked like he couldn't play QB at all.

 

Whoever thinks the offense and Miller and Hopkins are immune to this is in denial.

So you're saying a professional NFL team with actual NFL scouts has no idea what they're doing?

 

That they're better off with Brandon Weeden and TJ Yates?

 

Hopkins fantasy numbers were immune last year lol that's my point.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

 

Just to play devil's advocate I think you could argue Hopkins was the only real weapon Houston had last year after Foster went down.

 

Now they get Lamar Miller, Strong coming on, Braxton Miller, Fuller ect and a new QB.

 

I don't think he ends up with 192 targets again personally.

I think this only helps Hopkins. It may take some targets away but it also should alleviate some of the pressure and coverage on him.

 

Last year, a gameplan vs Texans was simple, don't let number 10 torch you, and he still torched most everyone. He was QB and matchup proof.

 

He's young and he literally never gets hurt. Not sure what's not to love. I see the floor as a top 7 WR with potential to be the best.

[Kent 228]

So you're saying a professional NFL team with actual NFL scouts has no idea what they're doing? O

That they're better off with Brandon Weeden and TJ Yates?

Hopkins fantasy numbers were immune last year lol that's my point.

Sure I'm saying that. Look at the Browns and Cowboys. They have no idea what they're doing. They drafted Manziel and Gregory. They picked up and are starting RG3. It's criminal.

 

The fact that nobody can defend against how awful Osweiler is and yet think it won't impact that offense is a mystery to me. I won't have any Texans on my team because they are all overvalued. I'd feel better with TJ Yates and Weeden. I said it. That how bad Osweiler looks and I know Yates and Weeden had no fear of throwing it up for grabs.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

300 career attempts and we conclude he's awful? Shoot I think Tebow had more opportunities than what you're giving Osweiler lol

[Ray_T 591]

So you're saying a professional NFL team with actual NFL scouts has no idea what they're doing?

 

That they're better off with Brandon Weeden and TJ Yates?

 

Hopkins fantasy numbers were immune last year lol that's my point.

come on man, think about what you are saying.

 

professional teams with actual NFL scouts make wrong calls all the time. both with pros and at the draft.

 

when you look at a play, you notice different things than I do and different things than a scout might. Scouts rarely all agree on players and talents and this kid (Osweiler) has less than a full season under his belt as a starter. As with any rookie, sometimes he looked good, and sometimes he looked bad.

 

It's okay for you to think Osweiler will light it up in Houston. but some of us think he wont.

 

That's life. so we will not likely end up with Houston players on our fantasy rosters, and guys like you are more likely to end up with Houston players on their roster.

 

we cant all be right. Lets keep that in mind.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

come on man, think about what you are saying.

 

professional teams with actual NFL scouts make wrong calls all the time. both with pros and at the draft.

 

when you look at a play, you notice different things than I do and different things than a scout might. Scouts rarely all agree on players and talents and this kid (Osweiler) has less than a full season under his belt as a starter. As with any rookie, sometimes he looked good, and sometimes he looked bad.

 

It's okay for you to think Osweiler will light it up in Houston. but some of us think he wont.

 

That's life. so we will not likely end up with Houston players on our fantasy rosters, and guys like you are more likely to end up with Houston players on their roster.

 

we cant all be right. Lets keep that in mind.

Lol those scouts actually have their careers on the line if they're right or wrong. What do you and I have to lose?

 

Not once did I ever say Osweiler will light it up. Never. I just don't think it will affect Hopkins or in this case Lamar Miller. If you refer to last year they still ran the ball A LOT with garbage Alfred Blue and Grimes and Polk if I'm not mistaken.

 

So to think that Miller won't at least get close to all of those RB touches is senseless. The ypc might go down but that means nothing in fantasy.

 

So I urge you to c'mon man

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Lol those scouts actually have their careers on the line if they're right or wrong. What do you and I have to lose?

 

Not once did I ever say Osweiler will light it up. Never. I just don't think it will affect Hopkins or in this case Lamar Miller. If you refer to last year they still ran the ball A LOT with garbage Alfred Blue and Grimes and Polk if I'm not mistaken.

 

So to think that Miller won't at least get close to all of those RB touches is senseless. The ypc might go down but that means nothing in fantasy.

 

So I urge you to c'mon man

The scouts who have their jobs on the line let Russell Wilson fall to the third. Just saying.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

The scouts who have their jobs on the line let Russell Wilson fall to the third. Just saying.

The draft is a whole other animal. We could be here all day. How many heads should roll because of Tom Brady?

[LoOnAtIk 75]

Discrediting any and every scout just because a few have been wrong seems pretty foolish lol

 

Yet we praise every blurb coming out of camp. Face palm.

[Ray_T 591]

Discrediting any and every scout just because a few have been wrong seems pretty foolish lol

 

Yet we praise every blurb coming out of camp. Face p

 

Lol those scouts actually have their careers on the line if they're right or wrong. What do you and I have to lose?

 

Not once did I ever say Osweiler will light it up. Never. I just don't think it will affect Hopkins or in this case Lamar Miller. If you refer to last year they still ran the ball A LOT with garbage Alfred Blue and Grimes and Polk if I'm not mistaken.

 

So to think that Miller won't at least get close to all of those RB touches is senseless. The ypc might go down but that means nothing in fantasy.

 

So I urge you to c'mon man

as I said before, scouts make mistakes all the time.

 

Teams with professional scouts signed Bradford, Foles, and Kaepernick to large contracts.

 

Denver, a team with professional scouts (an organization with a long history of winning) told Elway not to sign this kid.

 

now do you see how valid this argument is?

 

scouts and gms are wrong all the time.

 

using this logic, we could go on like this all year.

 

All I am saying is there are more valid arguments out there.... I just dont think this is one of them.

 

 

[LoOnAtIk 75]

Is your argument that scouts are wrong or right?

 

Riddle me this if Houston ran the ball 5th most in the NFL last year why wouldn't anyone assume a significant increase in touches for Lamar Miller? That's why he's being drafted so high. His floor is pretty high with the potential to finish top 2 or 3.

 

Osweiler may hurt his fantasy value in some ways but there's no way he's going to take away from his touches, and that's where a RBs value lies nowadays in the world of RBBCs and concussion protocols.

[Mike Nice 40]

Lamar miller will be the top rb this year. He can put up similar numbers as arian foster did a few years back.

[ricanrockers 39]

Found this on Rotoworld via Bleacher report:

 

Bleacher Report's Mike Freeman "keep(s) hearing" from scouts around the league that Lamar Miller "might have a season for the ages."

 

We haven't had a blurb on Miller in over two months, and found this a perfect opportunity to change that. By all accounts, Miller has looked tremendous at training camp, with longtime Texans beat writer John McClain saying Miller's acceleration "looks like he's been shot out of a cannon." McClain also talked up Miller's pass catching and blocking. Some scouts told Freeman they think Miller could lead the league in rushing. After being completely miscast in Miami, Miller is going to be a workhorse for coach Bill O'Brien in an offense that was third in pace in 2015. Miller is a legit RB1 and first-round fantasy pick.

[Kent 228]

Found this on Rotoworld via Bleacher report:

 

Bleacher Report's Mike Freeman "keep(s) hearing" from scouts around the league that Lamar Miller "might have a season for the ages."

 

We haven't had a blurb on Miller in over two months, and found this a perfect opportunity to change that. By all accounts, Miller has looked tremendous at training camp, with longtime Texans beat writer John McClain saying Miller's acceleration "looks like he's been shot out of a cannon." McClain also talked up Miller's pass catching and blocking. Some scouts told Freeman they think Miller could lead the league in rushing. After being completely miscast in Miami, Miller is going to be a workhorse for coach Bill O'Brien in an offense that was third in pace in 2015. Miller is a legit RB1 and first-round fantasy pick.

I also just read from AZ that David Johnson is equal or better than Marshall Faulk in terms of pass catching. Cmon man.

[ricanrockers 39]

I also just read from AZ that David Johnson is equal or better than Marshall Faulk in terms of pass catching. Cmon man.

I know but you never know if these scouts nailed it on the head. Anything's possible but I would bet David Johnson is the real deal. Players have been raving about him as well. I guess we will see in a few weeks!!

[Kent 228]

I know but you never know if these scouts nail it on the head. Anything's possible but I would bet David Johnson is the real deal. Players have been raving about him as well. I guess we will see in a few weeks!!

That's not my point. We know David and even Miller are likely to have good seasons, but the preseason hyperbole coming out now is out of hand.

[IMMensaMind 459]

lol, well if you have him top 6 or 7 and I have him top 8 or 9, we dont disagree THAT much

 

but as a Hopkins owner, I am actually concerned about the addition of Osweiler. While a stud will always put up some numbers, it is clear that a QB change can make a difference between being an Elite #1 WR and just being a regular #1 WR.

 

The numbers posted by Demarius Thomas with Osweiller at QB were okay, but certainly not elite by any means and that (among other things) leads me to question Whether Osweiler is as good as many say he is.

And Denver - knowing that Manning was done - chose to let him go.

 

That certainly is no vote of confidence. I'm not sold on Osweiler either, and think that Nuk will land somewhere around #8 for WRs.

[IGotWorms 3,315]

Yes it's best to ignore the hyperventilating. Point is the guy has looked good in camp. That's really all you can take away from it, but it's something.

[ricanrockers 39]

That's not my point. We know David and even Miller are likely to have good seasons, but the preseason hyperbole coming out now is out of hand.

Oh....yeah so true but what else do we go off of. I'll be honest, I want Miller but I'm too nervous to pick him in the first round. I have the 9th pick and probably will go WR but if he comes back around on the turn, I just may grab him. David Johnson will be gone before my first pick so I'm not even sweating that.

[Ray_T 591]

That's not my point. We know David and even Miller are likely to have good seasons, but the preseason hyperbole coming out now is out of hand.

That is a good way to explain it.

[SpenceToons 70]

Quote: "We haven't had a blurb on Miller in over two months..."

 

Quote: "...but the preseason hyperbole coming out now is out of hand."

 

 

From zero to sixty in two seconds.

[Law 220]

Not understanding the shock here with a #2 ranking.

 

I do my rankings based on the projections on 9 sites (including this one). From those 9 sites, I get an average projections for the year. For each of my 4 annual leagues, I then "project" that league's scoring into all of the projection averages.

 

With a season projection of 273 carries for 1195 yards and 7.9 TDs along with 49.4 catches for another 389 yards and 2.1 TDs and with 2.1 fumbles, Miller came in as ranked 3, 4, 2, and 1 in my 4 leagues. So I don't see #2 here being all that crazy.

[Maulers1973 117]

Miller might end up being a PPR monster at the RB position. I think he'll have a good season, but I don't think he'll see 2k from scrimmage or anything. I'd project him at:

 

1100

55 rec

470 r yrds

11 total TDs

 

 

I'd rank Gurly, AP, Charles & Elliott above him.

[listen2me 23 1,544]

I have him 4th.

 

A guy who plays 16 games. Who catches the ball well. In his prime. Who should get more carries. In a weak division defensively?

 

Sign me up.

[Phil Simms 11 127]

drafted him 1st round at 11, with Charles in the 2nd. High ceiling and not much risk either for Miller.