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#1 redsrback

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Posted 28 July 2018 - 04:49 AM

Jimmy Graham goes from a running QB to a pocket passer who is number 1 projection andTrey freekin Burton is above him?



#2 typhus

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Posted 28 July 2018 - 05:19 AM

This could be the most drunken post of all time for this forum... good job


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#3 ralphster

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Posted 28 July 2018 - 08:13 AM

jimmy has been great and will be a good rz presence for arog.

trey is moving into the kelce role in nagys offense tho, and trubs has a history of success throwing over the middle.

I'd take trey over jimmy all day.
“When I played pro football, I never set out to hurt anyone deliberately - unless it was, you know, important, like a league game or something” ~ D. Butkus

#4 phillygrrl08

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Posted 28 July 2018 - 09:12 AM

I don't recall any TEs in an Aaron Rogers offense putting up any significant numbers



#5 Matt's Eagles

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Posted 28 July 2018 - 10:21 AM

Jermichael Finley?

Caught 55 catches over 600 yards 3 times with AaaaaRon
Top 10 TE numbers

#6 redsrback

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Posted 28 July 2018 - 02:06 PM

jimmy has been great and will be a good rz presence for arog.

trey is moving into the kelce role in nagys offense tho, and trubs has a history of success throwing over the middle.

I'd take trey over jimmy all day.

gl with with your tray lol



#7 ralphster

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Posted 28 July 2018 - 03:31 PM

gl with with your tray lol


good luck with your eli lol
“When I played pro football, I never set out to hurt anyone deliberately - unless it was, you know, important, like a league game or something” ~ D. Butkus

#8 weepaws

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Posted 28 July 2018 - 11:44 PM

The lack of talent at the wr postion makes J Graham a better pick.

Adams is the only real wr threat.

Cobb can’t seem too stay healthy.

I think that’s the reason the Packers went fishing and landed J Graham.

I can see him being a real good red zone contributor.

In a non ppr league that’s really important.

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#9 redsrback

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Posted 29 July 2018 - 03:29 AM

good luck with your eli lol

You don't get it ralph, you want to call him a sleeper, that's fine. Even if he was to do better then Graham it wont make you right by the info provided. Jimmy Grahams numbers were still good last year and this year he is even in a better environment. Either you have a brown nose for FFT or your just throwing things at the wall to see what sticks.



#10 ralphster

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Posted 29 July 2018 - 07:47 AM

it would seem it is you who doesn't get it redsrback. fft is projecting trey gets exactly 2.9 more points than jimmy in standard and 7.9 more points in ppr. lay off the sauce indeed mr over reaction.

jimmy is going at 5.05, while trey is going in the 8th. if you have trouble understanding why that's a better value it would appear it is you who is throwing stuff at the wall hoping it will stick.
“When I played pro football, I never set out to hurt anyone deliberately - unless it was, you know, important, like a league game or something” ~ D. Butkus

#11 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 29 July 2018 - 07:56 AM

it would seem it is you who doesn't get it redsrback. fft is projecting trey gets exactly 2.9 more points than jimmy in standard and 7.9 more points in ppr. lay off the sauce indeed mr over reaction.

jimmy is going at 5.05, while trey is going in the 8th. if you have trouble understanding why that's a better value it would appear it is you who is throwing stuff at the wall hoping it will stick.


Logic bombs :ninja:

#12 redsrback

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Posted 29 July 2018 - 08:44 AM

Projection is trey at 7 and jimmy at 8 here. You and beerbutt stick with your 30 years of garbage calling Trey Burton this years Travis Kelce and ill stick to calling Eli top 10 this year. Keep running your mouths ill take u and your friends on this debate every day.



#13 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 29 July 2018 - 09:24 AM

Projection is trey at 7 and jimmy at 8 here. You and beerbutt stick with your 30 years of garbage calling Trey Burton this years Travis Kelce and ill stick to calling Eli top 10 this year. Keep running your mouths ill take u and your friends on this debate every day.


Opposite of logic bombs

#14 listen2me 23

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Posted 29 July 2018 - 09:36 AM

Hard to predict. They have been splitting Graham out in 3 wide sets thus far in camp. Rodgers mentioned not having a match up problem like Jimmy for a long long time.

I think he will have very nice TD production with Rodgers. 8-12. But hard to say on catches and yards. I think he will have a real nice year. Trey Buton may have an even better year tho.

#15 jrokh

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Posted 29 July 2018 - 09:37 AM

I have no dog in this fight, but isn't it logical to suggest that one of the best TD throwing QB's will throw a bunch of them to one of the best red zone targets, after losing his best red zone option, as opposed to a young unproven qb throwing to a formerly back-up TE?



#16 tanatastic

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Posted 29 July 2018 - 03:13 PM

Agree, lay off the sauce.

#17 redsrback

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Posted 29 July 2018 - 03:58 PM

Thxs Tan and jr for bringing back some respect to the site.



#18 ralphster

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Posted 29 July 2018 - 05:18 PM

Thxs Tan and jr for bringing back some respect to the site.


so anyone who disagrees with you over your fantasy football opinions is somehow disrespectful? laughable.
“When I played pro football, I never set out to hurt anyone deliberately - unless it was, you know, important, like a league game or something” ~ D. Butkus

#19 redsrback

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Posted 29 July 2018 - 06:14 PM

so anyone who disagrees with you over your fantasy football opinions is somehow disrespectful? laughable.

No, I'm saying reaching that far gives the site a bad name especially since you been here so long. Maybe you should stop playing fantasy football on the free-sites.



#20 SpenceToons

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Posted 29 July 2018 - 08:34 PM

Here are a couple of stats that smile favorably upon Burton:

 

If you look at all TE's last year who had at least 30 targets and rank them (per PPR scoring) by fantasy points per target, you have...

 

O.J. Howard coming in 1st at 2.70 FP's per target

Trey Burton is 2nd with 2.51

Gronk is 4th with 2.15

Kelce 10th with 1.93

Graham is 17th with 1.78

 

Burton was tied for 5th among that group of 44 TE's with a 74% catch rate. Graham was in the bottom third with a rate of 60%.

 

 

What Burton needs is just a little more opportunity.



#21 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 29 July 2018 - 08:50 PM

No, I'm saying reaching that far gives the site a bad name especially since you been here so long. Maybe you should stop playing fantasy football on the free-sites.


Thanks for your reply reds. I think Tan and Ralph with opposing views bring good discussion. While you sound whiny as hell, I respect that you embrace your whininess

#22 tanatastic

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Posted 29 July 2018 - 09:10 PM

Thanks for your reply reds. I think Tan and Ralph with opposing views bring good discussion. While you sound whiny as hell, I respect that you embrace your whininess

Oh no, I meant Reds should lay off the sauce. I think going out on a limb is great considering every year many many oddball predictions pan out while studs bust.

#23 redsrback

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Posted 30 July 2018 - 08:37 AM

Here are a couple of stats that smile favorably upon Burton:

 

If you look at all TE's last year who had at least 30 targets and rank them (per PPR scoring) by fantasy points per target, you have...

 

O.J. Howard coming in 1st at 2.70 FP's per target

Trey Burton is 2nd with 2.51

Gronk is 4th with 2.15

Kelce 10th with 1.93

Graham is 17th with 1.78

 

Burton was tied for 5th among that group of 44 TE's with a 74% catch rate. Graham was in the bottom third with a rate of 60%.

 

 

What Burton needs is just a little more opportunity.

Burton would of had more designed plays



#24 shutdown

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Posted 30 July 2018 - 10:08 AM

In a 12-team 1/2pt PPR, Graham is the 4th TE taken at 5.04.  Burton the 9th TE at 7.10.  (Note, other ADP sites have Graham as TE 5)
 
Graham was brought in to be effective in the red-zone.  I don't  know that he'll be particularly effective between the 20's as the packers offense hasn't been TE friendly for some time.  If you take Bennett's 5 game stat-line where he played with Rogers, he recorded 20 receptions, 194 yards, and zero TDs.  If you extrapolate that over 16 games it's roughly 64 receptions, 621 yards, good for 9th in Yards for TE's (between Vernon Davis and Cameron Brate), and tied for 6th in receptions with Evan Engram.  I don't think Graham is substantially more athletic or dynamic than Bennett at this point in his career, so I think those reception and yardage totals are pretty solid projections, however,  that's for Green Bay's TOTAL TE production.   Their 2016 TOTAL TE production was lower than that. 
 
So the Packers, as of late, don't value the TE position.  Couple that with the fact that Graham cannot block and the Packers don't utilize 2 TE sets like some other teams do, using 12 personnel only 11% of the time.  That's the lowest in the NFL in 2017.  This means that Marcedes Lewis is going to see a substantial amount of time of the field because he's a serviceable blocking and receiving TE.  Now you're taking a fairly small pie and dividing it up between the two.  Even if Graham gets 75% of the yardage/reception total, you're talking about a player that won't finish in the top 10 TE's for receptions or yards. 
 
Assuming that's his baseline for receptions and yards you have to hope you're picking up a MINIMUM Of 8TD's in order to justify him being the 4th TE taken.  You'll need 10-12 to argue you got any value from drafting him at ADP.  You also have to assume that Marcedes Lewis is practically no factor whatsoever in the TE receiving game.  Or you'll have to assume that the TE spot will acquire some of the target's and yards vacated by Nelson.  Where I can see that actually happening is in the red-zone as Nelson had 6 TD's in the 5 games Rogers started last year and Graham still  has a knack for getting the jump balls in the end-zone.
 
At that ADP I'm not drafting Graham because unless the packers substantially change their offense and how they employ TE's, he's going to have to be TD dependent to justify that pick. He'll potentially have a lot of weeks of no production.  Right now I can get Greg Olsen, Evan Engram, Kyle Rudolph, Delanie Walker, and Jordan Reed all after Graham and I'd project all of those TE's to outproduce Graham for yards and receptions.  Trying to project 10-12 TD's on 40-50 receptions is pretty ambitious even for an offense as good as Green Bay's.
 
Burton is more difficult to project as the offense will be totally different, Trubisky isn't a proven commodity and Adam Shaheen is in the mix there as well, but the one thing you do know with Burton is that the head coach was the OC for some TE friendly offenses.  I'm not sure Burton will necessarily outperform Graham, but I would bet he'll be the better value pick as I can't see any path to Graham being the 4th ranked TE at the end of the year.

#25 listen2me 23

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Posted 30 July 2018 - 10:13 AM

Michael Bennett was an out of shape bum when he got to the Packers. Dont put that one on the Packers not using TEs. It was just a terrible signing. They cant get open so they sign a 285lb bumbling TE who is getting old. Awful signing. Was a bum.

Graham may be too old to put up great yards. But if healthy I think 8 TDs is the floor. Rodgers has spoke very highly of Graham and seems excited to use him. Graham will be out there a lot in 3 WR sets.

#26 shutdown

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Posted 30 July 2018 - 11:40 AM

Michael Bennett was an out of shape bum when he got to the Packers. Dont put that one on the Packers not using TEs. It was just a terrible signing. They cant get open so they sign a 285lb bumbling TE who is getting old. Awful signing. Was a bum.

Graham may be too old to put up great yards. But if healthy I think 8 TDs is the floor. Rodgers has spoke very highly of Graham and seems excited to use him. Graham will be out there a lot in 3 WR sets.

It's more about the usage of TE in the packers offense than the player.  I'll grant you that Graham is in better shape than Bennett, but he's still 31, and certainly appeared to be aging last year.  He's coming off the worst statistical season of his career in every category other than TD's.  He cannot run block, so if he's on the field he's giving away the fact that he's a receiver, or Lewis will have to be on the field with him.  As mentioned above, the Packers run the least amount of 2 TE sets in the NFL, so Lewis actually gives them a more versatile look as the single TE.  I did hear that they are lining Graham up as a WR in camp and that may help him get on the field more. 

 

Also you have to go back to 2013 when Jermichale Finley was on pace for 800 Yards and 9 TD's to have a Packers TE that was anywhere close to the production Graham will have to have to justify his ADP.  I do think this is a good offense for him and he'll be a good fit for what the Packers do in the red-zone, but I think it's really difficult to project him any higher than the 5th TE overall and you can draft the same potential later in the draft.  There's not going to be much fantasy production difference between TE5 and TE10.



#27 listen2me 23

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Posted 30 July 2018 - 12:13 PM

Probably not value wise.

I do think he has real potential for 10plus TDs tho.

They are changing their offense around a little this year. So we may see some new things compared to the last few years.

#28 redsrback

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Posted 02 August 2018 - 10:16 PM

I see the updated version of projection has moved Jimmy Graham up and Trey Burton down which they should with the info that's out there. I also noticed Mike didn't chime in on the subject, but most noticeable was the guys who been here so long standing behind this. This to me is like predicting Johnny Manziel to return to the NFL and being a top 5 QB, what a shame. Using past arguments to bury a hatchet in me makes me look smart when you put yourselves out there like ripe fruit. By the way, what happened to others who used to be here who would of torn them up for the extreme over reach. Perhaps it was because of the ridiculous barrage of shitty knowledge by some of you.



#29 ralphster

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Posted 05 August 2018 - 05:52 PM

most noticeable was the guys who been here so long standing behind this. This to me is like predicting Johnny Manziel to return to the NFL and being a top 5 QB, what a shame. Using past arguments to bury a hatchet in me makes me look smart when you put yourselves out there like ripe fruit. By the way, what happened to others who used to be here who would of torn them up for the extreme over reach. Perhaps it was because of the ridiculous barrage of shitty knowledge by some of you.


I've been buying Burton for a while now, before FFT had any projections out. Predicting Burton over Graham is absolutely nothing like predicting Manziel coming back to be a top 5 qb and you make yourself look the fool saying so.

You seemingly take offense to anyone w an opinion different than yours, and you take pot shots at them to boot. All over this forearm, not just this thread.

What happened to the others who might have spoken up? They probably got driven off by trolls like you.
“When I played pro football, I never set out to hurt anyone deliberately - unless it was, you know, important, like a league game or something” ~ D. Butkus

#30 redsrback

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Posted 06 August 2018 - 02:29 PM

I've been buying Burton for a while now, before FFT had any projections out. Predicting Burton over Graham is absolutely nothing like predicting Manziel coming back to be a top 5 qb and you make yourself look the fool saying so.

You seemingly take offense to anyone w an opinion different than yours, and you take pot shots at them to boot. All over this forearm, not just this thread.

What happened to the others who might have spoken up? They probably got driven off by trolls like you.

Ive noticed you like to pretend your hands are clean but never shut your mouth. Okay stand by it, but info availiable makes you look silly reguardless of what happens.