Randy Moss projections?

[Jesus Christ 0]

Now that Randy is playing with a solid offensive team (great QB/Solid line) will Moss jump back into the top 5? Top 10 Fantasy WR's? Or do people see him either as not as valueable because Brady spreads it out and/or you think Moss has lost a step?

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Now that Randy is playing with a solid offensive team (great QB/Solid line) will Moss jump back into the top 5? Top 10 Fantasy WR's? Or do people see him either as not as valueable because Brady spreads it out and/or you think Moss has lost a step?

 

I think he could get back into top 10 but not top 5. Even if he hasn't lost a step Brady will not lock onto him like Culpepper did. That's assuming he hasn't lost a step. He's got a lot to proove.

 

That said, I'll guess 70-1100-8

[Belushi 9]

The Pats are built around a strong run game and solid D. They're passing game does not focus on one receiver; rather the ball is spread around from game to game depending on matchups. The Pats will not feature Randy like the Vikes did. He will have some big games, and some games where his name is barely called. The Pats don't build their game plan around a couple of stars.

 

Look at Deion Branch's best years as a Pat, and I think that's where Randy fits in. Will he be featured in the red zone? I doubt it. He's not a physical receiver, and they've got big bodies in Watson and Washington to fill that role. I think people drafting him expecting a top 10 WR will be disappointed, again.

[Sho Nuff 719]

65 - 1000 - 8 sounds about right.

 

Look at the Pats history recently of WRs and how many catches they have. Now they have several other weapons as well in Welker and Stallworth. I don't see him topping 80 receptions.

 

His value may come in TDs though, but I don't think he will be a PPR goldmine.

[The Brain 0]

I don't see him breaking 1000 yds but 10 tds is reasonable.

 

The Eagles also spread the ball around alot and then got TO, BANG 14tds. It isn't a matter of locking in, but his ability to make a catch with defenders on him (or blowing by them).

 

Stallworth will draw coverage also, Welker is a joke. In addition they need to worry about the run. It is a good situation all around for NE.

[listen2me 23 1,542]

I was scared to open this.....I thought there would be man love for Randy yet again like last year....

 

I will say....68-1000-10....decent numbers....

[LunaTick 29]

His yardage and receptions will be low, his tds will be around 16.

He is a two fold threat. Speed and Jump.

I think NE uses him mostly to out jump the secondary in the endzone.

A place where position and not speed is of importance.

[IGotWorms 3,315]

Stallworth will draw coverage also, Welker is a joke. In addition they need to worry about the run. It is a good situation all around for NE.

 

In fantasy terms, Welker is not a serious player. But in actual football terms, remember calling him a "joke" when he comes up with key third down catches time and time again next year.

[taxicab823 0]

63/940/5

[cbfalcon 824]

70 rec.

1100 yards

15 TD's

 

TD machine.

[scherber830 0]

5000 yards

[edjr 5,567]

How many games will the Patriots win by blowout this year? I'm guessing at least 25% of them, Moss will not have great #'s this year, but the Patriots will have a great season.

 

I'll say around 70 catches, 10 TD's and 900 yards

[TUM301 10]

Moss, Stallworth, Welker etc. early, Maroney and the running game to close out the 4`th quarters. See a lot of 28-13 30-17 type games this season. Moss 75 catches 1050 yds. and 10-12 tds.

[Raider 84 29]

70 receptions 1200 yards 12-14 tds. He will get the tds!!!!!!!! Back into the top 10 for sure.

[Walter34 3]

63/940/5

[Boston 0]

You really can't answer this until you see Moss in camp. Once you see Moss I think you'll know pretty quickly. If he's in great shape and working hard (i.e. the scenario BB/Piloi are bringing him in for) my guess is he'll be inline for a monster season. The Pats have typically spread the ball around but if Moss is within about 90% of what he was a few years ago I truly believe BB and Brady will be using him early and often and he'll get in the area of 80 receptions. They aren't going to screw around here. If Randy Moss is in the ballpark of what he was in Minny I think you're going to see some very big plays with the offense the Pats have put together. Yet, until you actually see him in camp and see what type of shape he's in and what type of relationship he builds with BB/Brady and the rest of the team he's still somewhat of an unknown quanity.

 

 

Right now I'll project 80 receptions for 1150 yards and 10 TDs with another TD on the ground.

[listen2me 23 1,542]

I will not draft Moss this year...based on how early others will take him...

 

I would not feel good about him as my #1 at all....He still needs to prove to me he wants to play and is even good anymore....He should do better given the situation, but I refuse to bank on it.

[Melissa Stark 1]

800yds and 7tds, I'm sure it will changeduring training camp

[Some Guy 0]

25 rec /344 yds /3 td's

 

This sounds about right to me as this is what Gabriel was able to put up before he showed his true colors and got in the dog-house.

[dmleonard 0]

65/750/9

 

He won't be 100% for 16 games. 30 years old with chronic ankle and groin issues that have come up every year since 2004. His td's will still be decent as Brady is smart enough to take advantage of his leaping ability in the endzone.

[Walter34 3]

You really can't answer this until you see Moss in camp. Once you see Moss I think you'll know pretty quickly. If he's in great shape and working hard (i.e. the scenario BB/Piloi are bringing him in for) my guess is he'll be inline for a monster season. The Pats have typically spread the ball around but if Moss is within about 90% of what he was a few years ago I truly believe BB and Brady will be using him early and often and he'll get in the area of 80 receptions. They aren't going to screw around here. If Randy Moss is in the ballpark of what he was in Minny I think you're going to see some very big plays with the offense the Pats have put together. Yet, until you actually see him in camp and see what type of shape he's in and what type of relationship he builds with BB/Brady and the rest of the team he's still somewhat of an unknown quanity.

Right now I'll project 80 receptions for 1150 yards and 10 TDs with another TD on the ground.

 

Do you feel the Pats change their offence because of Moss?

 

Expecting a monster season is a low percentage play even if he looks good early on. Moss has had nagging ailments for several years now and his production has reflected that. A little optomistic to hope that he is 90% of what he used to be. At 30 yrs old, I think his big numbers are behind him.

 

Aside from the health and age, the Pats O spreads it around and there is only so many passes available. Stallworth, Welker, Watson, maroney, Faulk, other TEs will all get their.

 

I think Moss was a great pickup for the Pats, but wouldnt expect anymore than 950-1000 yds and < 8 TDs.

 

In the past 2 yrs, the Pats qb, mainly Brady has completed 678 passes. The breakdown is as follows:

 

WR 361

TE 158

RB 149

Misc 10

 

One season averages:

 

WR 180

TE 79

RB 75

Misc 5

 

For Wrs, Moss, Welker, Stallworth, Gaffney and whoever else will share that 180. I'm not sure who's numbers will suffer if the Pats feed the ball more to Moss. The TE and RB reception totals look reasonable.

 

So, either that Pats will change theor O philosophy and pass more or we can expect Moss to fall into the traditional Pats #1 WR numbers with a slight increase based on his talent level.

 

I dont see them passing alot more or changing what clearly works for them.

[pittnthat 0]

Randy's numbers

Will leave the field early-2 times

Will spaz out on his q.b. on tv- 7 times

Will block downfield to help his team-never

Will be suspended for pot-3 games

will catch a ball over the middle-5 catches

Will wear a Yankee cap with Tom Brady-weekly

[devildog 0]

I've got him at 1050 yards 8 TDs right now.

[Chief71 0]

Now that Randy is playing with a solid offensive team (great QB/Solid line) will Moss jump back into the top 5? Top 10 Fantasy WR's? Or do people see him either as not as valueable because Brady spreads it out and/or you think Moss has lost a step?

 

Here are his stats from NFL.com

 

Receiving

Year Team G GS Rec Yds Avg Lg TD 20+ 40+ 1st

1998 Minnesota Vikings 16 11 69 1313 19.0 61 17 20 14 51

1999 Minnesota Vikings 16 16 80 1413 17.7 67 11 26 8 52

2000 Minnesota Vikings 16 16 77 1437 18.7 78 15 25 8 58

2001 Minnesota Vikings 16 16 82 1233 15.0 73 10 14 4 59

2002 Minnesota Vikings 16 16 106 1347 12.7 60 7 19 6 66

2003 Minnesota Vikings 16 16 111 1632 14.7 72 17 27 6 76

2004 Minnesota Vikings 13 13 49 767 15.7 82 13 11 6 43

2005 Oakland Raiders 16 15 60 1005 16.8 8 15 4 46

2006 Oakland Raiders 13 13 42 553 13.2 3 6 1 29

[VaTerp 0]

I dont do projections but as of now I have Moss ranked somewhere between 18th and 24th for Wrs.

[Boston 0]

Do you feel the Pats change their offence because of Moss?

 

Expecting a monster season is a low percentage play even if he looks good early on. Moss has had nagging ailments for several years now and his production has reflected that. A little optomistic to hope that he is 90% of what he used to be. At 30 yrs old, I think his big numbers are behind him.

 

Aside from the health and age, the Pats O spreads it around and there is only so many passes available. Stallworth, Welker, Watson, maroney, Faulk, other TEs will all get their.

 

I think Moss was a great pickup for the Pats, but wouldnt expect anymore than 950-1000 yds and < 8 TDs.

 

In the past 2 yrs, the Pats qb, mainly Brady has completed 678 passes. The breakdown is as follows:

 

WR 361

TE 158

RB 149

Misc 10

 

One season averages:

 

WR 180

TE 79

RB 75

Misc 5

 

For Wrs, Moss, Welker, Stallworth, Gaffney and whoever else will share that 180. I'm not sure who's numbers will suffer if the Pats feed the ball more to Moss. The TE and RB reception totals look reasonable.

 

So, either that Pats will change theor O philosophy and pass more or we can expect Moss to fall into the traditional Pats #1 WR numbers with a slight increase based on his talent level.

 

I dont see them passing alot more or changing what clearly works for them.

 

As stated it all depends on how much Moss has left in the tank. I really don't think anyone truly knows the answer to that. That's why I stated that once camp starts we'll have more of an idea.

 

As for your numbers I'll put it this way...if the Randy Moss of old (or close to it) is what the Pats are getting than your numbers mean absolutely nothing. The Pats have never had anything close to that type of player so comparing what Moss would do compared to Patten, Troy, Givens, Branch, Gaffney and Caldwell is not realistic. None come close to his package of size, speed and explosiveness. Since Brady has been QB the Pats have really only had one real big time weapon and that was Dillon in 2004 when they rode him real hard (and obviously that didn't involve the passing game). Outside of that they have had a solid collection of good players at the skill positions. Guys who are not going to put up big numbers regardless of the offense yet as a collection do a very good job.

 

IMO you really can't say the Pats have one type of offensive philosophy since it changes game to game and opponent to opponent. Some times they run a lot and some times they pass a lot. Usually it depends on what the opponent gives them and who they have that specific year. IMO looking at past years doesn't make too much sense since they have never had a collection of weapons like they have this year (at least on paper).

 

Now, if you think Moss isn't the same player than I understand where you are coming from. While that maybe the case I'm of the believe that no one really knows what he has left. I can easily see both scenarios playing out. Yet, if the Moss of old (or at least 90% of it) is back there isn't one doubt in my mind that he will be fed the ball on a consistent basis and in a much different fashion than we've ever seen a Patriot WR used...because they will have never had anyone like him. Randy Moss could not be more different than anything the Pats have had at wideout during the BB era and to compare him to WRs who are either under six feet, not overly fast or just average in general talent is a mistake. If Moss is Moss than BB will ride him very hard and he will have a year that will be very different than we have seen from a Patriot WR in the last seven years.

[Bishop82 61]

63/940/5

 

Yep

[DBZFan2K 0]

Yahoo's Brandon Funston has Randy Moss ranked 12th amongst WR's, between Anquan Boldin and Javon Walker. That's a conservative enough ranking that I can agree with. Brady is a QB who usually knows how to get the most out of the ability of his WR's. Moss won't carry the offense on his shoulders like he did in Minnesota because he won't have to. I'm still not sure what to project from him so I won't.

[Guest RenoZ]

Yahoo's Brandon Funston has Randy Moss ranked 12th amongst WR's, between Anquan Boldin and Javon Walker. That's a conservative enough ranking that I can agree with. Brady is a QB who usually knows how to get the most out of the ability of his WR's. Moss won't carry the offense on his shoulders like he did in Minnesota because he won't have to. I'm still not sure what to project from him so I won't.

 

Absolutely NO WAY would I take Moss over either of the two you mentioned. Walker and Boldin both have the potential to be legit #1 WRs. I just can't see that from Moss considering the attitude and such from years past as well as Brady's desire to spread the ball.

[bigtuna 0]

Some people don't get the Patriots.

 

 

They don't hold to any rules on how they play. Belichick, if he feels he has an advantage would throw 50 times a game. And at the same time he would do vice versa.

 

Just because they spread the ball around before, (with mediocre recievers) does not mean they will do so with Moss.

 

If Randy Moss is capable of catching 15 TD's without being detrimental to the rest of the team...Bill Belichick will want that.

 

 

I think 70 catches for 1250 yards and 10+ td's is very doable (heck, Michael Jackson went for 1200 yards and 14TD's for Belichick in 1994 or so).

 

If Troy Brown can catch 100 for 1200 yards, then i see no reason the sky cannot be the limit for Moss, who is a top leve4l talent and producer

[swamp dog 0]

Some people don't get the Patriots.

They don't hold to any rules on how they play. Belichick, if he feels he has an advantage would throw 50 times a game. And at the same time he would do vice versa.

 

Just because they spread the ball around before, (with mediocre recievers) does not mean they will do so with Moss.

 

If Randy Moss is capable of catching 15 TD's without being detrimental to the rest of the team...Bill Belichick will want that.

I think 70 catches for 1250 yards and 10+ td's is very doable (heck, Michael Jackson went for 1200 yards and 14TD's for Belichick in 1994 or so).

 

If Troy Brown can catch 100 for 1200 yards, then i see no reason the sky cannot be the limit for Moss, who is a top leve4l talent and producer

 

of course you do. were'nt you the same guy trashing moss when it looked like he was going to grenn bay?

[SoloMatisse 0]

Here are the past seasonal stats of some other notable WRs during their 10th year in the league:

 

Jerry Rice 1499yds 13TDs

Cris Carter 1163 10

Andre Reed 1303 8

Marvin Harrison 1146 12

Michael Irvin 1180 9

Steve Largent 1287 6

Art Monk 1186 8

Isaac Bruce 981 5

 

Just a random selection of current or former greats at the WR spot, and what each did regarding yardage #s and TD receptions during their 10th year in the NFL. There are some HOFers here as well as others likely to get into Canton some day.....like Moss. Now, the yardage #s for all of these guys are pretty respectable, with Rice topping this list at nearly 1500yds, and Bruce bottoming out at just under a thousand. The TD #s are a little more modest, but still very respectable for WR fantasy expectations. But of these 8 players, only Rice, Carter and Harrison ever had double-digit TD #s in more than 2 seasons. Reed and Irvin scored 10 or more in a season ONCE, and Monk never reached d-d TD receptions. So with that in mind, these TD #s are actually quite solid for each player by basis of comparison to their careers. These are simple, pure 10th year #s for some great WRs of which Randy Moss will soon be comparable. He is a great receiver entering his 10th year.....ableit with a new team, in a new offense, and with a new QB. And Randy Moss has already achieved double-digit TDs in 6 NFL seasons, which is the sum total of Art Monk, Michael Irvin, Andre Reed, Isaac Bruce and Steve Largent. With that in mind, and considering Tom Brady will be throwing him the ball this upcoming year, Ill expect a little greater TD output than the average of this list. So, to use a slightly different stastical approach to Moss' '07 season, Ill average out these #s, which is about 1218yds and 9TDs, and Ill give him 3 more scores. In a full season, Id expect he'd do this with about 80 catches. Crude, completely flawed, and admittedly biased, but there ya go.

 

80 Recs 1200yds 12TDs ........and hopefully one shiny new ring to boot!

[Guest RenoZ]

Here are the past seasonal stats of some other notable WRs during their 10th year in the league:

 

Jerry Rice 1499yds 13TDs

Cris Carter 1163 10

Andre Reed 1303 8

Marvin Harrison 1146 12

Michael Irvin 1180 9

Steve Largent 1287 6

Art Monk 1186 8

Isaac Bruce 981 5

 

I am going through this list trying mightily to see your point. Yes, Moss is as talented as every WR on this list and, yes, they are all in their 10th year. Problem is, NOT ONE of these guys ever quit on their team like has Moss has for the last few years.

 

Go ahead - create a poll of the hardest-working, most competitive on-field WR and just about every name on that list will be mentioned. Moss will not.

[football_scooter 0]

Randy Moss will do the following:

 

14 games started, 2 games "decoy" with his pulled [hammy, groin, quad].

67 receptions, 824 yards (12.2 ave), 10 TDs - a decent, but risky WR2 for FFB purposes.

 

2 rushes for 17 yards

[Raider 84 29]

Moss will be happy and have a huge season. High risk, but high reward. The question is when do you pull the trigger on him. I'll gamble on him.

[SoloMatisse 0]

I am going through this list trying mightily to see your point. Yes, Moss is as talented as every WR on this list and, yes, they are all in their 10th year. Problem is, NOT ONE of these guys ever quit on their team like has Moss has for the last few years.

 

Go ahead - create a poll of the hardest-working, most competitive on-field WR and just about every name on that list will be mentioned. Moss will not.

 

 

The simple answer to this objection is that Moss has NEVER been one of the hardest working or most competitive receivers in the league.....just the most talented. And he's never played for the Patriots or worked with Tom Brady. But the objection is crystal clear all the same. Like I said, its a simple way to generate a forecast but certainly not flawless. For drafting purposes, there are certainly 7 or 8 'safer' picks at WR, but if I got 'stuck' with Moss next year, Id certainly expect #1 #s.

[football_scooter 0]

For drafting purposes, there are certainly 17 or 18 'safer' picks at WR, but if I got 'stuck' with Moss next year, Id certainly expect #2 #s.

 

fixed.

[MTSkiBum 1,594]

He only has a 1 year contract, he needs to play hard for his next payday. I wont post my projections, cause they are higher than anyones elses. I see top 3 numbers for him.

[9-Route 0]

i may not be a fan of the pats, their coach, and mostly their qb, but i give them their props. they know how to use their horses. they used ultra cover corner ty law to isolate and lock down their defense, they use seymour to create disruption even if it doesnt allow him statistical prowess, and they use their high accuracy qb in a short/quick pass system to maximize his talents.

 

over the past few seasons, when they were winnig big games, they've done what needed to be done and heavily exploited their opponents' weaknesses. boston always comments about their game plans changing week-to-week, more so than most teams are willing to do, but its proven for them. they spread teams that are secondary depth weak (minny last yr) or blitz heavy (eagles in SB), run on teams that are d-line weak, and go up top on teams with poor deep coverage (pitt chmpshp game 3 yrs ago).

 

i think you'll see them bomb moss a lot, as i firmly believe they know how to keep guys happy (dillon was pumped to 1600-13 to keep him pleased as well as help the offense). moss should return to the rec/TD ratio to which he is more accustomed (~4-6recs/TD). his early yrs in minny, he posted 69, 77, and 80 recs with 17, 11, and 15 TDs. even the last yr in minny when culp was going off along side manning, moss posted 49recs with 13TDs (actually a sickening sub-4 rec/TD ratio).

 

like i said, he isn't worried about getting the stats (he has galactic ones before), the wins (he has won games), the playoffs (he has won those games), or the conf chmp games (he has been to 2)----its the title, period.

 

as for projections: look for randy to post a nice 65-80 recs, high avg/rec (15-18yds), and high TDs (13-16).

 

~72/1200/14

[football_scooter 0]

He only has a 1 year contract, he needs to play hard for his next payday. I wont post my projections, cause they are higher than anyones elses. I see top 3 numbers for him.

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