Fantasy Football is 90% Luck

[BunnysBastatrds 2,597]

I just lookked over our leagues draft and waiver wire moves for this season, and I have come to believe that this game is more about luck than anything else. 90% luck and 10% percent skill. I think in previos years it has been more like 60/40 luck to skill. With injuries, suspensions, two RB tandems, emerging QB's, and a lot of other factors, it has been a game of luck.

 

Examples

 

1- First, look at your ADP and all of the other so called "Expert Draft Rankings". You will see that besides LT, Adai, and Westbrook, all of the other top twelve RB's have been busts. And LT is having an average year by his standards. Jackson, L Johnson, Gore, Parker, Henry, Bush, Rudi Johnson, and Maurice Jones Drew have all been below average compared to previous seasons. The RB posistion has been a major dissapointment this year, fantasy wise. Most FF teams have been affected by this. Where you drafted this year made a big difference. After LT at number one, the five to six spots after have been a bust so far for most. Draft posistion=luck.

 

2- If you picked P Manning in the first round like most leagues, you were rewarded with his usual stats so far this year. But if you picked Brady in the first round,(most didn't) you are probably in the top three teams in your league. Who really knew Brady was going to light it up this year like he has done? If you say you knew he would throw for thirty TD's in the first half of the season, you are a liar. Bulger, Palmer, Brees, Hasselback, McNabb, and Kitna have been average at best. It's probably a few of you who are winning your leagues if your back ups are Favre, Garcia, Eli Manning. Bad year for QB's= luck.

 

3- The WR's that were at the top of most rankings are average at best. C Johnson, Holt, Harrison, S Smith, Fitzgerald, R Williams, L Evans, Colston, Boldin, R Brown, J Walker, D Driver are average or worse. Injury, injury to Q.B., or just having a bad year=luck. The big three this year are Moss, Owens, and Wayne. Three out of the top twelve scoring well. If you got stuck picking Braylon Edwards, Joey Galloway, Burress, Greg Jennings, and a few others, your doing good. Draft posistion=luck.

 

I know most of you truly believe you are a fantasy guru. That year you won big was all about skill. Go back and look. LUCK!

[eaglesfreak 10]

you must have had a tough lost this week

[seattleslew 0]

For it to be 90% luck would mean that all your owners are equally knowledgeable, prepared and motivated. If they are then it's closer to 100% luck.

[IAMWood 6]

Any old - school fantasy players can tell you, the league is won in the later rounds not in the early rounds.

 

quit cryin.

 

 

 

[yanko 11]

Even if it was 99% luck if you suck at the 1% then hello last place. It's still a skill game.

[PRuggs 0]

I'm not sure how long you have been playing FF but I think everyone would agree that fantasy football is 50/50 luck and skill. 90% luck is pretty crazy, if it was 90% the interest in the game would be very low.

 

Sure if you keep the same roster that you drafted then you have a very small chance of winning. However people who are good a FF wind up with a team at the end of the year that is very different than the one they drafted.

 

FF is all about the trades, waivers, and start/bench decisions you make. Thats what makes it fun.

 

I participate it 3 leagues a year (for the past 5 years) and I make the playoffs 90% of the time... its not luck. Many times winning the Championship can be a total crap shoot if you have players lay an egg one week and another team has a scrub who blows up.

 

As a fantasy owner you try to put together the best team you can every week, and always work to improve your team. There are plenty chances for every owner to pick up players who can take their team to the playoffs.

 

Self proclaimed "experts" only provide information as a guide, its not a rule on how to manage your team. You take all the "expert" opinons and base your own to create YOUR team.

[Phurfur 70]

I just lookked over our leagues draft and waiver wire moves for this season, and I have come to believe that this game is more about luck than anything else. 90% luck and 10% percent skill. I think in previos years it has been more like 60/40 luck to skill. With injuries, suspensions, two RB tandems, emerging QB's, and a lot of other factors, it has been a game of luck.

 

Examples

 

1- First, look at your ADP and all of the other so called "Expert Draft Rankings". You will see that besides LT, Adai, and Westbrook, all of the other top twelve RB's have been busts. And LT is having an average year by his standards. Jackson, L Johnson, Gore, Parker, Henry, Bush, Rudi Johnson, and Maurice Jones Drew have all been below average compared to previous seasons. The RB posistion has been a major dissapointment this year, fantasy wise. Most FF teams have been affected by this. Where you drafted this year made a big difference. After LT at number one, the five to six spots after have been a bust so far for most. Draft posistion=luck.

 

2- If you picked P Manning in the first round like most leagues, you were rewarded with his usual stats so far this year. But if you picked Brady in the first round,(most didn't) you are probably in the top three teams in your league. Who really knew Brady was going to light it up this year like he has done? If you say you knew he would throw for thirty TD's in the first half of the season, you are a liar. Bulger, Palmer, Brees, Hasselback, McNabb, and Kitna have been average at best. It's probably a few of you who are winning your leagues if your back ups are Favre, Garcia, Eli Manning. Bad year for QB's= luck.

 

3- The WR's that were at the top of most rankings are average at best. C Johnson, Holt, Harrison, S Smith, Fitzgerald, R Williams, L Evans, Colston, Boldin, R Brown, J Walker, D Driver are average or worse. Injury, injury to Q.B., or just having a bad year=luck. The big three this year are Moss, Owens, and Wayne. Three out of the top twelve scoring well. If you got stuck picking Braylon Edwards, Joey Galloway, Burress, Greg Jennings, and a few others, your doing good. Draft posistion=luck.

 

I know most of you truly believe you are a fantasy guru. That year you won big was all about skill. Go back and look. LUCK!

 

You lost me when you talked about "Expert Draft Rankings". Don't you make your own picks? If you don't it is 100% luck for you.

[silvernblack4 0]

I finished in 1st place in the regular season 4 out of 5 years that i have been playing(very competative league) I have never won a championship, it's a 14 team league and there are no byes 8 teams make it(ridiculous I know, 6 teams always gets out voted). I lost to the 8 seed twice in the 1st round, lost in the semifinals, and twice in the championship!!!!!!! ahhhhh so frustrating. anyway winning any given sunday might have a high degree of luck, but consistently being at the top of a competative league is having great football knowledge and a real feel for the game. Oh yeah... I'm in first again! Hopefully AP & SJax can give me my first ring!

[mark32esu 18]

I just lookked over our leagues draft and waiver wire moves for this season, and I have come to believe that this game is more about luck than anything else. 90% luck and 10% percent skill. I think in previos years it has been more like 60/40 luck to skill. With injuries, suspensions, two RB tandems, emerging QB's, and a lot of other factors, it has been a game of luck.

 

Examples

 

1- First, look at your ADP and all of the other so called "Expert Draft Rankings". You will see that besides LT, Adai, and Westbrook, all of the other top twelve RB's have been busts. And LT is having an average year by his standards. Jackson, L Johnson, Gore, Parker, Henry, Bush, Rudi Johnson, and Maurice Jones Drew have all been below average compared to previous seasons. The RB posistion has been a major dissapointment this year, fantasy wise. Most FF teams have been affected by this. Where you drafted this year made a big difference. After LT at number one, the five to six spots after have been a bust so far for most. Draft posistion=luck.

 

2- If you picked P Manning in the first round like most leagues, you were rewarded with his usual stats so far this year. But if you picked Brady in the first round,(most didn't) you are probably in the top three teams in your league. Who really knew Brady was going to light it up this year like he has done? If you say you knew he would throw for thirty TD's in the first half of the season, you are a liar. Bulger, Palmer, Brees, Hasselback, McNabb, and Kitna have been average at best. It's probably a few of you who are winning your leagues if your back ups are Favre, Garcia, Eli Manning. Bad year for QB's= luck.

 

3- The WR's that were at the top of most rankings are average at best. C Johnson, Holt, Harrison, S Smith, Fitzgerald, R Williams, L Evans, Colston, Boldin, R Brown, J Walker, D Driver are average or worse. Injury, injury to Q.B., or just having a bad year=luck. The big four this year are Moss, Owens, Wayne, and Braylon. Three out of the top twelve scoring well. If you got stuck picking Braylon Edwards, Joey Galloway, Burress, Greg Jennings, and a few others, your doing good. Draft posistion=luck.

 

I know most of you truly believe you are a fantasy guru. That year you won big was all about skill. Go back and look. LUCK!

 

fixed

[Law 251]

 

 

Cool!

 

 

We made it through 9 weeks without this annual fest.

 

 

[westlak 1]

I just lookked over our leagues draft and waiver wire moves for this season, and I have come to believe that this game is more about luck than anything else. 90% luck and 10% percent skill. I think in previos years it has been more like 60/40 luck to skill. With injuries, suspensions, two RB tandems, emerging QB's, and a lot of other factors, it has been a game of luck.

 

Examples

 

1- First, look at your ADP and all of the other so called "Expert Draft Rankings". You will see that besides LT, Adai, and Westbrook, all of the other top twelve RB's have been busts. And LT is having an average year by his standards. Jackson, L Johnson, Gore, Parker, Henry, Bush, Rudi Johnson, and Maurice Jones Drew have all been below average compared to previous seasons. The RB posistion has been a major dissapointment this year, fantasy wise. Most FF teams have been affected by this. Where you drafted this year made a big difference. After LT at number one, the five to six spots after have been a bust so far for most. Draft posistion=luck.

 

2- If you picked P Manning in the first round like most leagues, you were rewarded with his usual stats so far this year. But if you picked Brady in the first round,(most didn't) you are probably in the top three teams in your league. Who really knew Brady was going to light it up this year like he has done? If you say you knew he would throw for thirty TD's in the first half of the season, you are a liar. Bulger, Palmer, Brees, Hasselback, McNabb, and Kitna have been average at best. It's probably a few of you who are winning your leagues if your back ups are Favre, Garcia, Eli Manning. Bad year for QB's= luck.

 

3- The WR's that were at the top of most rankings are average at best. C Johnson, Holt, Harrison, S Smith, Fitzgerald, R Williams, L Evans, Colston, Boldin, R Brown, J Walker, D Driver are average or worse. Injury, injury to Q.B., or just having a bad year=luck. The big three this year are Moss, Owens, and Wayne. Three out of the top twelve scoring well. If you got stuck picking Braylon Edwards, Joey Galloway, Burress, Greg Jennings, and a few others, your doing good. Draft posistion=luck.

 

I know most of you truly believe you are a fantasy guru. That year you won big was all about skill. Go back and look. LUCK!

Ho Hum....(stretch) (Yawn) That time of year again when the losers start telling everyone else how lucky they are.

[Durtee 0]

It is hard to tell how much luck is involved. If your team suffers numerous injuries or suspensions, then sure that is unlucky. But you also take in account how injury prone certain players are. If I had to guess, then I would say 50% skill and 50% educated guess.

[SaintsInDome2006 650]

I would say it's 90% bad luck, because if players produce like you expected then everything's just as you planned, there's no luck involved there.

 

But the draft is important and the bad luck arises with injuries. So this year I drafted LJ, Ronnie Brown and Travis Henry.

 

Travis Henry was leading the league in rushing - then got hit with a bad drug test, and he really has not been the same.

 

Ronnie Brown was an LT-like stud - then he got hurt.

 

LJ - well, you know.

 

I was and still am leading my league, but probably not for long.

 

I made some mistakes in the draft like passing on Moss, ADP, and Romo for lesser lights, even though I had penciled in all three names before the draft. I made my own bad luck there.

[HenryChinaski 1]

Just got eliminated from the playoffs, i see..

[Big Pauly 0]

I'd say it's pretty similar to something like competitive poker. One of the top pros was interviewed at the WSOP main event a few years ago and he said that winning the main event is akin to winning a lottery where the number of lottery tickets each player receives is proportional to that player's skill. So yes, the best / most knowledgeable fantasy football owner can simply get unlucky (have a few disappointing draft picks, injuries, etc.), but on average if you stay on top of pro football you are going to have a much better chance of winning than the naive owner.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I have seen this same post started on this board every year for the last 5 years I've been coming here. and it usually appears around the 1st week of November. I can't wait til you actually WIN once (or quit FF), so I don't have to read the same stupid rant.

 

But I fully expect to see this post started next year at about the same time of year. In fact, I'm starting to look forward to it already.

[dreadlocks34 0]

The largest luck aspect is in the schedule of head to head matchups. On any given week if your team is not the low or high scoring team, it is luck of the draw whether you win or lose. Now your odds go up depending on your points scored obviously. But how the schedule falls is completely out of your hands. In one 12 team league this season I am second highest in scoring, have a 68% winning percentage in the power rankings and am 4-5. Fortunately for me that league uses the 6th playoff spot goes to the highest scoring not in the top 5 so I am safe. With nothing different other than how the weekly matchup fell I could be 8-1 just as easily. That is where luck really plays a part.

[Shakespeare 0]

This debate is old and tired. Success in FF, like most things in life (especially sports), requires skill and luck. The ratio of those two requirements is constantly changing.

 

This season, chance is playing a fairly big role due to the myriad of injuries. To say, however, that FF is 90% luck is ludicrous.

 

In my league, the same 4 teams are consistently at the top of the standings. If luck plays such a prominent role, then we 4 must all be pretty lucky!

[frank 2,345]

We have been over this many times. There is no such thing as luck.

[pimptastic69 0]

This debate is old and tired. Success in FF, like most things in life (especially sports), requires skill and luck. The ratio of those two requirements is constantly changing.

 

This season, chance is playing a fairly big role due to the myriad of injuries. To say, however, that FF is 90% luck is ludicrous.

 

In my league, the same 4 teams are consistently at the top of the standings. If luck plays such a prominent role, then we 4 must all be pretty lucky!

 

Good players anticipate bye weeks and injury prone players and bad matchups and whatnot. They make trades and add/drops accordingly.

 

Winning a championship may be 90% luck, but always being one of the top 2 or 3 teams is a skill.

[urban1 0]

Gotta agree.

 

To win the championship, you need a lot of luck because anything can happen late in the NFL season and especially in your FF league. You can do your best to anticipate players being rested, teams with early blowout leads going to the run instead of the pass when youve got the QB, etc but if its single game knockout in your league then one unlucky week and your whole season goes to waste.

 

But skill has a lot to do with the regular season. In most of my leagues, the same teams are always in the top part of the league while another group of teams is always hovering near the bottom.

 

Drafting is just part of the game. Trades, WW pickups, knowing when to sell high or buy low.

 

 

Good players anticipate bye weeks and injury prone players and bad matchups and whatnot. They make trades and add/drops accordingly.

 

Winning a championship may be 90% luck, but always being one of the top 2 or 3 teams is a skill.

[49ers_suck 0]

FF is 50% draft and 50% WW.

[Texansfan 0]

Though 9 weeks I have scored 1107 points to be # ONE in a 12 team league.

 

Over 100 points more than the second highest scoring team.

 

My record........................ 3-6.

 

 

The #1 overall guy in our league has scored 989 points. 118 fewer points than me. He's 7-1.

 

So yes, I think there is a sh*tload of luck involved in this game. If I showed my roster vs. his you would laugh. In fact screw it.

 

My team:

 

Brees/Big Ben

AD, Portis, Jacobs, MJD, Betts, Ward

TJ, TO

H.Miller

N.Folk

Colts

 

His team:

 

Favre, Eli

Lynch, DeAngelo Williams, Chris Brown, Kevin Faulk

Burress, Edwards, AJ (hurt all year), Randel El

D.Clark

Dawson

Bears

 

Talk about luck...

[nobody 2,882]

I think the level of luck envolved fluctuates with how well I'm doing in a league in a given year. If I'm doing bad it's mostly luck, but if I'm doing good, it's all skill.

[Gepetto 1,454]

Fantasy Football is 90% Luck, If you think otherwise, you are wrong!

 

yeaaaa!

[ratbastard1 0]

I type this every year:

 

Luck is when preparation meets opportunity.

 

Makes perfect sense in our game. If you're not deep enough, you'll have a hard time competing.

You also have to prepare for the idea that you might have the highest points against average.

 

Roster management and schedule analysis is your responsibility and it takes skill to foresee that DJ Hackett might outscore Santana Moss from here on out, it takes more skill to realize that 2 weeks ago. When to pull the trigger on starting players and trades and pick-ups is aided by research and league knowledge.

 

1 out of every 2 players will be injured a good amount of time (an example not a fact). I've played in many leagues and most bad teams have useless players still on their roster while good teams are usually strong right down to their last player.

 

Do you look at what your roster schedule looks like 2,3 or even 4 weeks from now?

[Mephisto 15]

It's 100% chance. If you believe otherwise, you're a focking moron.

 

Skill. That's like saying the mega millions is skill. Dumbasses.

[nobody 2,882]

It's 100% chance. If you believe otherwise, you're a focking moron.

 

Skill. That's like saying the mega millions is skill. Dumbasses.

It was nothing but my FF skill that made me choose Addai over LJ at 1.03. Nothing but

[Igot'emtrippin 0]

Thats why I want to play in a points only league, no luck there. Except they are Soooooooooo boring. Any way around that?

I have played in a pts only league, w/ a weekly high point winner getting $XX.XX per week. Thats okay, but not as much fun as H v. H league.

 

In other words, is there a way to take luck out of F.F.? Maybe not all of it is possiable, but dropping the %.

[nobody 2,882]

Thats why I want to play in a points only league, no luck there. Except they are Soooooooooo boring. Any way around that?

You could do side bets

[Mephisto 15]

Thats why I want to play in a points only league, no luck there.

 

 

Until the day comes where you're playing in the NFL and can somehow affect the outcome of your fantasy games... not only will you not have any "fantasy football skill" - neither will anyone else.

 

The ONLY people who have "fantasy football skill" are NFL players who have themselves on their team.

 

Aside from that very isolated circumstance - there isn't a focking one of you that has any "fantasy football skill."

 

Good luck pretending you do. I laugh at you every single year.

[Melissa Stark 1]

Your own drafting abilities isn't luck. Having your players avoid injury is luck along with a Bye-week fill-in out performing in his role.

 

I never believe in much hype for Wr's tiers except maybe the first 5, other than that, it's a cr@pshoot

[redtodd 7]

I think it is lower, like 75%.

[chrisdoty73 0]

I completely disagree. I think is 50% luck and 50% Ninja. Maybe 60/40 Ninja...

[Mephisto 15]

Your own drafting abilities isn't luck. Having your players avoid injury is luck along with a Bye-week fill-in out performing in his role.

 

I never believe in much hype for Wr's tiers except maybe the first 5, other than that, it's a cr@pshoot

 

 

FF games are won and lost based upon the performances of the players on "your team" week in and week out. Until you somehow control their performances week-in and week-out... FF will always be 100% chance.

 

Now shut... the fock... UP.

 

"Drafting abilities." Asswipe. I'm surprised I haven't already seen the oft-used "If it's 100% chance, then I should be able to throw darts at a draft board and win with whomever I get" stupidassed reply.

 

This is why people make fun of fantasy footballers... it's because of the ass-holes who think any "skill" is involved. You focking geek.

[OD99 0]

I would like to add that TIME is an important factor as well.

 

When I had a standard office job I could spend ridiculous amounts of time keeping up to date, evaluating matchups and schedules, etc...

 

Now that I travel a lot my team management has suffered quite a bit and I have found I am making trades that I wouldn't have made in the past and not being as aware of the goings on in the league along with missing the crucial WW pickups.

 

It has really had an impact.

 

On the other side, a few of the guys in my league are recent fathers and have taken time off - these guys are making moves they NEVER made before and it shows in their improved record.

 

Anyway, all that said, luck does play a major role but luck usually affects everyone and it probably washes out in the end.

[Melissa Stark 1]

Mephisto

 

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QUOTE(Melissa Stark @ Nov 7 2007, 10:56 PM)

Your own drafting abilities isn't luck. Having your players avoid injury is luck along with a Bye-week fill-in out performing in his role.

 

I never believe in much hype for Wr's tiers except maybe the first 5, other than that, it's a cr@pshoot

 

 

 

FF games are won and lost based upon the performances of the players on "your team" week in and week out. Until you somehow control their performances week-in and week-out... FF will always be 100% chance.

 

Now shut... the fock... UP.

 

"Drafting abilities." Asswipe. I'm surprised I haven't already seen the oft-used "If it's 100% chance, then I should be able to throw darts at a draft board and win with whomever I get" stupidassed reply.

 

This is why people make fun of fantasy footballers... it's because of the ass-holes who think any "skill" is involved. You focking geek.

 

 

 

Their is skill involved, like not drafting a focking kicker,defense in rnd 2, knowing your leagues scroing pts value.

So don't say there isn't skill, maybe wrong words, research and studying your league system first.

[Mephisto 15]

Their is skill involved, like not drafting a focking kicker,defense in rnd 2, knowing your leagues scroing pts value.

So don't say there isn't skill, maybe wrong words, research and studying your league system first.

 

Anybody else want to step up and cry "look at me, I'm an ass-hole who believes I have FF skill!"

 

Melissa stepped up... so can you!

[nobody 2,882]

The reason Meph thinks there is no skill to a draft is because he's got no skill. He just picks names off a sheet, and guys like me will tear him to shreds.

[Mephisto 15]

The reason Meph thinks there is no skill to a draft is because he's got no skill. He just picks names off a sheet, and guys like me will tear him to shreds.

 

Oh yeah... look at me... I have skill because I watch football and can figure out who the good guys are! :jerkoff:

 

nobody has stepped up to announce he's an ass-hole who has FF skill. NEXT!