Ryan Mathews

[ggroovy17 0]

Mathews is going to get the ball ALOT, especially around the goal-line. In the last 2 years, Norv Turner knew he had to throw the ball alot because LT was seriously declining and was ineffective in the running game. In his past, Norv has a history of producing stud fantasy RB's (E.Smith, F.Gore, LT).

 

In the days of RBBC, this is not one of them. Matthews is going to get 300 carries. In a keeper league, I think this guy should be a 1st round pick because he has all the elements around him to succeed.

 

The only RB's i'd take in front of Matthews are:

- Chris Johnson

- Adrian Peterson

- Ray Rice

- MJD

- Turner maybe?

[kmbryant09 1]

I think it's a stretch - 300 carries his rookie season is a stretch. Even turner mentioned he wants to give the ball alot, and mentioned like 200 or 250 as his goal (sorry, no link).

 

I just think it's way too risky to mortgage your keeper team on a rookie in the 1st round. In addition, he's not even the most talented RB in his own rookie class, and will have D. Sproles eat into his carries.

 

The SD offensive line is designed to pass block, not run block...much like Indianapolis'. They are a pass-first team, a pass-second team, only running to keep teams honest. Yes a lot can be attributed to LT's decline last season, but this OLine was below average.

 

So you want to draft the 2nd best RB prospect-Rookie, behind a suspect OLine, on a pass-first team, in the 1st round?

[Cara 0]

I think it's a stretch - 300 carries his rookie season is a stretch. Even turner mentioned he wants to give the ball alot, and mentioned like 200 or 250 as his goal (sorry, no link).

 

I just think it's way too risky to mortgage your keeper team on a rookie in the 1st round. In addition, he's not even the most talented RB in his own rookie class, and will have D. Sproles eat into his carries.

 

The SD offensive line is designed to pass block, not run block...much like Indianapolis'. They are a pass-first team, a pass-second team, only running to keep teams honest. Yes a lot can be attributed to LT's decline last season, but this OLine was below average.

 

So you want to draft the 2nd best RB prospect-Rookie, behind a suspect OLine, on a pass-first team, in the 1st round?

 

 

I agree 100%. Keep in mind that nearly every rookie running back hits the 'rookie wall' in their first season. Adrian Peterson, Knowshon Moreno.... It happens to nearly everyone. Do you want to spend a first round pick on a guy that will be hitting a wall around the time your playoffs start? Let someone else grab him early, watch him put up decent stats, then falter big time in the games that matter.

[Chronic Husker 85]

He's not first round. As mentioned, Turner wants to give him the ball 250 times. That will make for a ff stud but Sproles will get his share and will be the frontrunner for passing downs.

 

I don't want my 1st round pick to be a RB that splits carries on a passing team.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

he should be the top rookie barring injury or a really really poor training camp/preseason

 

but 1st round overall is a bit of a stretch.

 

Peterson, CJ, Rice, MJD, Gore, Turner, Jackson, Mendy, Greene, J-Stew, D-Will, Moreno, Charles, Grant, Pierre, Wells

 

thats a list of guys who should probably go ahead of him based on skill and having already shown us something.

 

The earliest I would consider drafting Mathews would be around the likes of McCoy (who hasnt shown much yet), and then tandem guys like Ronnie, Addai, Forte, Felix

 

Mathews could certainly outproduce some of the guys in the bold list above, but as a rookie who hasn't proven a single thing in the NFL, the risk probably doesn't outweigh any potential reward.

[Joey Gladstone 33]

I wouldnt take him in the first round of a fantasy or a real NFL draft.

[MDC 5,893]

Sounds like I'm slightly higher on Matthews than some others.

 

I wouldn't want Matthews in the first round, but I'd be happy to get him in the second -- especially if I ended up drafting another RB in the first. I'm not sold on Matthews but just given the lack of depth at RB in San Diego and the fact that the offense marches up and down the field, I think he's a virtual lock for 1,000+ rushing in addition to whatever he does in the passing game and 10 or more TDs.

 

Top 10-12 is high, but he should come off the board in most leagues by round 2.

[Riddlen 1]

I will take him at 1.1 of my dynasty draft but in a full redraft I figure he goes mid to bottom of the 2nd.

[mobb_deep 917]

Too early to say at this point. I definitely would take him 1.1 in a rookie dynasty draft. Not because he's the best runner, he's just in the best situation. I personally don't like the pick at all.

 

in a redradt, i wouldn't touch him until you're looking at guys like Reggie Bush, McCoy, etc. I'd guess that would be somewhere around the mid 3rd round?

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,587]

my thinking is that he EASILY puts up LT no's from last year, and those no's were brutal but still finished 9th in RB's in my scoring

 

my plan is hopefully picking around 10 in 12 teamer, and going Andre and then Mathews on way back

 

BTW Mathews only has 1 T.

[rholio 339]

I'd take him in the 2nd, easily. The first, no.

[Raider 84 29]

I will take him at 1.1 of my dynasty draft but in a full redraft I figure he goes mid to bottom of the 2nd.

 

I agree. Keeper late first rounder, redraft 2-3rd, 1.1 in dynasty. He is worth the upside.

[ggroovy17 0]

SD homer and Chargers season ticket holder here, all the talk here is Ryan Matthews is the man. I've said it before, the only reason Norv and the Chargers were such a pass-heavy team last year is because a combination of LT's diminishing skills and a very hurt offensive line. Norv had to adjust the offensive game plan in the middle of the season because they had NO running game. Norv has produced several STUD RB's in fantasy(LT, Gore, E.Smith). Even Terry Allen had 21 TDs in 1996 under Norv Turner.

 

LT had 339 carries, 59 rec. his rookie season with Norv Turner as the OC. I know they have a more balanced offense now, but that proves Norv is not afraid to give rookies a heavy workload.

 

Bottom line, Ryan Matthews IS a 1st round pick especially in dynasty leagues. Sproles is on a 1 year contract, so expect even bigger things from Matthews his second year.

[Kitsnow 0]

Did a mock where I did at the 12 spot

Matthews

b. Marshal

P. manning

S. Smith

C.J. Spiller

J. Best

Ben Tate.

Matt Ryan.

 

Was funny to take so many rookie rb's.

[9-Route 0]

i'm shocked and torn on mathews. i did not feel him to be an elite or even rd1-2 caliber player in this draft. yet, a guy whom i folllow and admire as a pure evaluator of talent---chargers GM aj smith---feels enough of him to move up 16 spots in rd1 and draft him as their new hb1.

 

there are a lot of angles on this situation. turner has had success with runners in his tenure as a playcaller and coach [already mentioned t allen, emmitt, ricky williams, gore, tomlinson]. the chargers o-line has come under scrutiny for its lack of run-blocking effectiveness over the past 2 seasons; yet, the team still ranks in the 17-20 range as far as run carries [commitment to the run] to set up its big pass game; furthermore, even a tomlinson in decline with near zero agility and acceleration posted 23TDs in this offense over this span.

 

i don't like mathews, but it just seems that any young hb with young legs and moves could squirm through the non-holes and non-push of the chargers o-line and still reap the benefits/stats of a top4 offense.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

i'm shocked and torn on mathews. i did not feel him to be an elite or even rd1-2 caliber player in this draft. yet, a guy whom i folllow and admire as a pure evaluator of talent---chargers GM aj smith---feels enough of him to move up 16 spots in rd1 and draft him as their new hb1.

 

there are a lot of angles on this situation. turner has had success with runners in his tenure as a playcaller and coach [already mentioned t allen, emmitt, ricky williams, gore, tomlinson]. the chargers o-line has come under scrutiny for its lack of run-blocking effectiveness over the past 2 seasons; yet, the team still ranks in the 17-20 range as far as run carries [commitment to the run] to set up its big pass game; furthermore, even a tomlinson in decline with near zero agility and acceleration posted 23TDs in this offense over this span.

 

i don't like mathews, but it just seems that any young hb with young legs and moves could squirm through the non-holes and non-push of the chargers o-line and still reap the benefits/stats of a top4 offense.

 

i agree with this asessment 100%.

 

regardless of how great a talent Ryan Mathews is, his situation is golden. Norv will use him plenty, the Chargers offense is a top unit in the league and the line cant really get worse than it was last season.

 

i think you look at old man LT's numbers from 2009 and you assume Mathews will have a higher ypc. Probably 3.8 at least. Mathews has fresh legs to potentially mask some of the o-line problems that LT could not. And you factor in some inexperience for Mathews.

[tenaciousb 0]

i agree with this asessment 100%.

 

regardless of how great a talent Ryan Mathews is, his situation is golden. Norv will use him plenty, the Chargers offense is a top unit in the league and the line cant really get worse than it was last season.

 

i think you look at old man LT's numbers from 2009 and you assume Mathews will have a higher ypc. Probably 3.8 at least. Mathews has fresh legs to potentially mask some of the o-line problems that LT could not. And you factor in some inexperience for Mathews.

 

I look for Mathews to get around 225 carries this year. At 4.5 per carry that comes out to around 1000 yds and let's say 8 TD's. I'm not sure what kind of a receiver he is. But overall those sound like RB2 numbers.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

I look for Mathews to get around 225 carries this year. At 4.5 per carry that comes out to around 1000 yds and let's say 8 TD's. I'm not sure what kind of a receiver he is. But overall those sound like RB2 numbers.

 

i think 225 is pretty low unless he gets injured. Im looking at 250-265. He'll also be the goal line as well as starting back so i'm looking more at 10 td's. That said, I think 4.0-4.2 is more realistic for ypc so i'll agree with you on 1000-1100 yards.

 

also im not saying he is a first rounder. Id consider him in the 3rd.

[Ondawa 0]

He will get lots of touches and the goal line chances according to Turner. Borderline

RB1 I think, plus the atches help in ppr...

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?i...ce=NFLHeadlines

[Carl Eller's Dead Liver 0]

I would not take Mathews in the 1st round, but I'd take him in the late 2nd round with confidence......knowing I am likley going to get 1st round production out of him, espeically in PPR leagues.

[Yippie Skippy 0]

i'm shocked and torn on mathews. i did not feel him to be an elite or even rd1-2 caliber player in this draft. yet, a guy whom i folllow and admire as a pure evaluator of talent---chargers GM aj smith---feels enough of him to move up 16 spots in rd1 and draft him as their new hb1.

 

there are a lot of angles on this situation. turner has had success with runners in his tenure as a playcaller and coach [already mentioned t allen, emmitt, ricky williams, gore, tomlinson]. the chargers o-line has come under scrutiny for its lack of run-blocking effectiveness over the past 2 seasons; yet, the team still ranks in the 17-20 range as far as run carries [commitment to the run] to set up its big pass game; furthermore, even a tomlinson in decline with near zero agility and acceleration posted 23TDs in this offense over this span.

 

i don't like mathews, but it just seems that any young hb with young legs and moves could squirm through the non-holes and non-push of the chargers o-line and still reap the benefits/stats of a top4 offense.

 

What don't you like about Mathews??

[Vikings4ever 496]

I'd consider taking him in the first.

 

 

 

 

 

 

If 10-12 of the top RBs blow out their knees in the preseason.

[9-Route 0]

What don't you like about Mathews??

 

 

i just do not see anything elite about him.

 

prior to 2009 [which i'll touch upon], over the past few seasons, i see the running backs drafted in rd1 as:

 

mcfadden---elite speed/acceleration

j stewart---elite break tackle

felix jones---elite speed/acceleration

chris johnson---elite speed/acceleration

mendenhall---elite agility and break tackle

peterson---elite everything except durability

lynch---elite break tackle

r bush---elite speed/acceleration

maroney---elite agility and break tackle

addai---elite agility and blitz pickup

de williams---elite break tackle and production

 

most of these guys to mee had some sort of elite trait that warranted their rd1 selection. in 2009, i actually also felt a bit lackluster on the backs drafted in rd1 as wells [break tackle], donald brown [?] and moreno [agility?] did not strike me as elite trait backs worthy of rd1 selections; rather, they were the best available at the position and thuswere selected. [this crop is another topic altogether]

 

so as far as mathews, i am just not seeing the elite traits that some others are seeing, and so i personally did not rate him at the level of a spiller or even the sec backs hardesty or tate. yet, as mentioned, when a stud evaluator and collector of talent like aj smith makes this move to get him, of course "who the hell am i to question? he is a real GM---i'm a schmoe!"

 

this is no indictment or certainty, just one viewpoint on a player, and i as anyone else have hit and missed all the time on evals.

[Yippie Skippy 0]

i just do not see anything elite about him.

 

prior to 2009 [which i'll touch upon], over the past few seasons, i see the running backs drafted in rd1 as:

 

mcfadden---elite speed/acceleration

j stewart---elite break tackle

felix jones---elite speed/acceleration

chris johnson---elite speed/acceleration

mendenhall---elite agility and break tackle

peterson---elite everything except durability

lynch---elite break tackle

r bush---elite speed/acceleration

maroney---elite agility and break tackle

addai---elite agility and blitz pickup

de williams---elite break tackle and production

 

most of these guys to mee had some sort of elite trait that warranted their rd1 selection. in 2009, i actually also felt a bit lackluster on the backs drafted in rd1 as wells [break tackle], donald brown [?] and moreno [agility?] did not strike me as elite trait backs worthy of rd1 selections; rather, they were the best available at the position and thuswere selected. [this crop is another topic altogether]

 

so as far as mathews, i am just not seeing the elite traits that some others are seeing, and so i personally did not rate him at the level of a spiller or even the sec backs hardesty or tate. yet, as mentioned, when a stud evaluator and collector of talent like aj smith makes this move to get him, of course "who the hell am i to question? he is a real GM---i'm a schmoe!"

 

this is no indictment or certainty, just one viewpoint on a player, and i as anyone else have hit and missed all the time on evals.

 

Aj Smith sure does have a great record of drafting RBs, no doubt. He has a solid scouting background. Living in California I am sure Aj saw plenty of Mathews at Fresno State.

 

I see Mathews as an all around back. That brings up a good debate. Would you rather have a back that does everything good or a RB that has an elite trait but maybe a weakness in another area??

[9-Route 0]

exactly, esp on your scouting point. mathews balled out there at fresno state in the west coast backyard, so those west coast teams/evaluators/viewers had more chance to see him and make their analyses. this is another factor weighing heavily towards my acquiesing that he is a top candidate in fantasy draft for 2010.

 

regarding the traits of a runner dilemma: i think every situation is different. some scenarios like an indy or new orleans may only need an all-rounder for production, while lesser situations like st louis may require elite talent to make stats. in this particular diego situation/topic, i think a lot are in the boat that anyone young with a medium talent level has a high% chance to be productive in the diego offense. mathews' reviews predominantly fit this bill at minimum.

[Boston Three Party 6]

I like him over....

 

Moreno (line issues)

Mendenhall (just because)

Any Dallas back

Grant

Thomas

Benson

Charles

D'Angelo (health)

 

But who knows. I'd like him as a 3rd round steal.

 

I think him and Best have the best opp's to kick it up a notch.

[davidbostonisgood 2]

i just do not see anything elite about him.

 

prior to 2009 [which i'll touch upon], over the past few seasons, i see the running backs drafted in rd1 as:

 

mcfadden---elite speed/acceleration

j stewart---elite break tackle

felix jones---elite speed/acceleration

chris johnson---elite speed/acceleration

mendenhall---elite agility and break tackle

peterson---elite everything except durability

lynch---elite break tackle

r bush---elite speed/acceleration

maroney---elite agility and break tackle

addai---elite agility and blitz pickup

de williams---elite break tackle and production

 

most of these guys to mee had some sort of elite trait that warranted their rd1 selection. in 2009, i actually also felt a bit lackluster on the backs drafted in rd1 as wells [break tackle], donald brown [?] and moreno [agility?] did not strike me as elite trait backs worthy of rd1 selections; rather, they were the best available at the position and thuswere selected. [this crop is another topic altogether]

 

so as far as mathews, i am just not seeing the elite traits that some others are seeing, and so i personally did not rate him at the level of a spiller or even the sec backs hardesty or tate. yet, as mentioned, when a stud evaluator and collector of talent like aj smith makes this move to get him, of course "who the hell am i to question? he is a real GM---i'm a schmoe!"

 

this is no indictment or certainty, just one viewpoint on a player, and i as anyone else have hit and missed all the time on evals.

Emmitt Smith coming out of college --- elite ________?

[davidbostonisgood 2]

I think it's a stretch - 300 carries his rookie season is a stretch. Even turner mentioned he wants to give the ball alot, and mentioned like 200 or 250 as his goal (sorry, no link).

 

I just think it's way too risky to mortgage your keeper team on a rookie in the 1st round. In addition, he's not even the most talented RB in his own rookie class, and will have D. Sproles eat into his carries.

 

The SD offensive line is designed to pass block, not run block...much like Indianapolis'. They are a pass-first team, a pass-second team, only running to keep teams honest. Yes a lot can be attributed to LT's decline last season, but this OLine was below average.

 

So you want to draft the 2nd best RB prospect-Rookie, behind a suspect OLine, on a pass-first team, in the 1st round?

Kmbryant09 spreading false information since April 30, 2010.

[davidbostonisgood 2]

Norv said 250 carries and 40 catches.

 

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/ap...argers-changes/

 

That's 290 touches (40 of them being in space), on a high powered offense that is most likely going to see the redzone a lot.

 

Edgerrin James 99' rookie season 2.0 ???

[9-Route 0]

Emmitt Smith coming out of college --- elite ________?

 

right; probably vision and maybe elusiveness.

 

player evaluation and fit for offensive scheme has certainly, even drastically, changed since that time, when emmitt smith and reggie cobb and blair thomas and even leroy hoard were being drafted in the upper rounds.

 

[another topic altogether] emmitt's draft class of 1991 [?] was on the heels of late 80s football where division rivals giants and redskins were pounding it with anderson and riggins, stone-walling with staunch defenses, and only the bills and niners were light years ahead of the curve in the passing game.

[DankNuggs 305]

i just do not see anything elite about him.

 

prior to 2009 [which i'll touch upon], over the past few seasons, i see the running backs drafted in rd1 as:

 

mcfadden---elite speed/acceleration

j stewart---elite break tackle

felix jones---elite speed/acceleration

chris johnson---elite speed/acceleration

mendenhall---elite agility and break tackle

peterson---elite everything except durability

lynch---elite break tackle

r bush---elite speed/acceleration

maroney---elite agility and break tackle

addai---elite agility and blitz pickup

de williams---elite break tackle and production

 

most of these guys to mee had some sort of elite trait that warranted their rd1 selection. in 2009, i actually also felt a bit lackluster on the backs drafted in rd1 as wells [break tackle], donald brown [?] and moreno [agility?] did not strike me as elite trait backs worthy of rd1 selections; rather, they were the best available at the position and thuswere selected. [this crop is another topic altogether]

 

so as far as mathews, i am just not seeing the elite traits that some others are seeing, and so i personally did not rate him at the level of a spiller or even the sec backs hardesty or tate. yet, as mentioned, when a stud evaluator and collector of talent like aj smith makes this move to get him, of course "who the hell am i to question? he is a real GM---i'm a schmoe!"

 

this is no indictment or certainty, just one viewpoint on a player, and i as anyone else have hit and missed all the time on evals.

Ryan Matthews basically put together a similar college resume to DeAngelo Williams IMO.... DeAngelo took a couple of years but now is a pretty solid back... He was iffy enough that they felt the need to go after Stewart...

[kutulu 1,548]

But who knows. I'd like him as a 3rd round steal.

 

I got him in the third round (33rd overall) in a draft that started this week.

[Kitsnow 0]

his adp has been shooting up, he's now mid 2nd round in 12 teamers.