Lets find some deep WR sleepers! Sleepers from past 3 years studied...

[Gepetto 1,368]

Hey rosslive,

 

You're basing your information on rotoworld.com's opinions. While the factual information they post is good, their opinions are only opinions and often wrong.

[rosslive99 1]

Zzzz....

 

I kinda think both of you are silly, looking for big production out of the Tampa Bay receiving group. Both receivers are rookies who don't historically do well, and Josh Freeman isn't exactly a beast at QB. The only pass catcher I'd expect to be fantasy relevant in Tampa is Kellen Winslow.

 

 

Oh my bad I must have read the title wrong, coulda sworn the point of the thread was deep sleepers, not the next top 10 receiver. Then this guy Gepetto comes in, and starts debating on what receiver is doing what, yet has no source for his information. Which is why I said I'll take the Tampa coaching staffs opinion over some dude on a message board.

 

And Gepetto, just because you "say" thats what you heard or whatever doesn't make it fact, it makes it opinion until you can reveal where you got the information. Reports from practice don't do anything for me, if I don't know where they are coming from...are these your reports, Mickey Mouses reports, Michael Claytons reports....who? I called your ish "opinion" cause you just spouted off information...anybody can say anything, doesn't make it fact.

[Kitsnow 0]

Sammie Stroughter?

[rosslive99 1]

Hey rosslive,

 

You're basing your information on rotoworld.com's opinions. While the factual information they post is good, their opinions are only opinions and often wrong.

 

I understand that....if you re-read where these "opinions" came from, the first is from Charles Campbell of the Pewter Report, where he cites the Bucs wideout coach Eric Yarber. Neither of which work for rotoworld. So what are you saying, we shouldn't trust the wideouts coach? And the second is from NFL.com's Steve Wyche, who attended their OTA's...which I have to believe knows a thing or two about what he's seeing.

 

Take it for what it's worth, in the end they are both rookies...and only time will tell where they are the most successful and what duties. Again I can only go by what I see...So if I have a quote from the Bucs wideouts coach...and your report...I think you can guess where I'm going with this.

[Gepetto 1,368]

I understand that....if you re-read where these "opinions" came from, the first is from Charles Campbell of the Pewter Report, where he cites the Bucs wideout coach Eric Yarber. Neither of which work for rotoworld. So what are you saying, we shouldn't trust the wideouts coach? And the second is from NFL.com's Steve Wyche, who attended their OTA's...which I have to believe knows a thing or two about what he's seeing.

 

Take it for what it's worth, in the end they are both rookies...and only time will tell where they are the most successful and what duties. Again I can only go by what I see...So if I have a quote from the Bucs wideouts coach...and your report...I think you can guess where I'm going with this.

 

I can't find the source because I read it over a month ago. I did say Arrelious Benn himself acknowledged (per reports I read on the various NFL and fantasy football websites) that most of the pass attempts went to Mike Williams and not to him. Tampa Bay Buccaneers was the original source (I can't remember who reported it, but Benn said so).

[Flgatorguy87 160]

Kenny Britt.......

[madd futher mucker 36]

Zzzz....

 

I kinda think both of you are silly, looking for big production out of the Tampa Bay receiving group. Both receivers are rookies who don't historically do well, and Josh Freeman isn't exactly a beast at QB. The only pass catcher I'd expect to be fantasy relevant in Tampa is Kellen Winslow.

 

I don't remember seeing anyone start a thread about DEEP SLEEPERS, and then come back on to criticize just about every DEEP SLEEPER post because the players mentioned are not likely to become top 20-25 fantasy options. I kinda think you are silly to do so.

 

SO GET IT: There are NO deep sleepers that are LIKELY to become top 25 fantasy options.

 

There is, however, a chance that some of these deep sleepers become top 20-25 or close to it if everything breaks right.

 

The TB WRs indeed do have the POTENTIAL to become top 25. Josh Freeman showed a big arm and incredible poise as a rookie QB. He is a leader and a gamer who will be throwing the ball a ton. TB is switching to a version of the west coast offense this year. Mike Williams is a very talented "Ocho Cinco" type WR1, and Benn reminds me some of Brandon Marshall (although he has been prone to concentration lapses in college - which could be understandable with Juice Williams as his QB). The point is that both of these guys are trememdously talented.

 

Kellen Winslow has come off of his sixth knee surgery and most of them have been more than just "clean-outs". It is entirely possible that he could miss games this year. It is also extremely feasible that either of these two rookies could "break-out" their rookie year. If so, my money would be on Mike Williams to do so.

[rosslive99 1]

I don't remember seeing anyone start a thread about DEEP SLEEPERS, and then come back on to criticize just about every DEEP SLEEPER post because the players mentioned are not likely to become top 20-25 fantasy options. I kinda think you are silly to do so.

 

SO GET IT: There are NO deep sleepers that are LIKELY to become top 25 fantasy options.

 

There is, however, a chance that some of these deep sleepers become top 20-25 or close to it if everything breaks right.

 

The TB WRs indeed do have the POTENTIAL to become top 25. Josh Freeman showed a big arm and incredible poise as a rookie QB. He is a leader and a gamer who will be throwing the ball a ton. TB is switching to a version of the west coast offense this year. Mike Williams is a very talented "Ocho Cinco" type WR1, and Benn reminds me some of Brandon Marshall (although he has been prone to concentration lapses in college - which could be understandable with Juice Williams as his QB). The point is that both of these guys are trememdously talented.

 

Kellen Winslow has come off of his sixth knee surgery and most of them have been more than just "clean-outs". It is entirely possible that he could miss games this year. It is also extremely feasible that either of these two rookies could "break-out" their rookie year. If so, my money would be on Mike Williams to do so.

 

Glad to see someone else seeing what I was...I personally think Freeman is gonna be a pretty damn good QB, based on what little experience he received, again in his rookie year...Looking back at his game logs from last year, the guy had 3 subpar games (less than 15 fantasy points scored)once he took over, the two games against New Orleans and one against the Jets, which I think most would agree are not subpar defenses. So unless he suffers from a sophmore slump, he can only get better. I think both Tampa wr's are great value this year aqs late flyers, I think ONE of them has the potential to put up decent numbers, which one remains to be seen.

[c9h13no3 0]

I don't remember seeing anyone start a thread about DEEP SLEEPERS, and then come back on to criticize just about every DEEP SLEEPER post because the players mentioned are not likely to become top 20-25 fantasy options.

Sure, every player mentioned in this thread is unlikely to be good. However, some of the players named are more likely than others. Rookies with a mediocre to bad QB are certainly in the "extremely very very unlikely to ever put up top 25 WR production in 2010" category.

 

The guys mentioned so far that I think should be drafted in a 12-14 team league are (in no particular order):

 

Royal

Gaffney (after some more research, he should prolly be drafted too)

Knox

Hester

Aromashodu

Schilenz

Murphy

Heyward-Bey

Naanee

Mason

M. Kelly

D. Thomas

L. Robinson

D. Avery

Jacoby Jones

Britt

 

The rest of the guys we're naming off are HUGE long shots, and just have too many factors working against them to bother with drafting. The whole point of this exercise is to name the most likely of the unlikely. And also, we should be naming guys who are worthy of *drafting*. Its pointless to make silly far out predictions about who will break out if it doesn't help us draft better. Sure, Dexter McCluster might break out. But it will probably take at least until week 6 or so for his talents to get noticed and for him to start breaking out. And he's also highly unlikely because he's a rookie and he's buried under Dwayne Bowe & Chris Chambers. He's not worth drafting, and should remain on the waiver wire of your league until you see something promising in a legit game.

 

For example, we know that rookie WR's usually don't have breakout huge years. However, most of the sleepers you guys are offering up are rookies! Sure, Dez Bryant could have a Randy Moss style rookie year and blow up for some serious fantasy pointage, but most of the other rookies being named (Williams, Benn, McCluster, Tate, Shipley, ect.) do not have that ability.

 

And lastly, you guys are also setting your standards too low. Drafting some guy who is *really* un-heard of and having him post a 50/600/3 (WR4 type numbers) line for his season is pretty pointless. Maybe in 16 team leagues that kind of production makes it into the starting line up, but for most of us, that isn't winning anyone any fantasy championships. We should be looking for high ceilings!

 

So if you've come here to flex how much obscure knowledge you have of some group of WR's, this isn't the place. I'd like for this thread to be a go to list of WR's that are draftable in the late rounds of the draft. And naming off guys like Dexter McCluster (who shouldn't be drafted except in a crazy deep league with deep benches) doesn't help us.

 

And of the WR's in Tampa, statistically, Stroughter and Clayton are more likely to break out than the rookies are... just sayin'.

[remote controller 143]

Hmmmm...lets see reports from coaches/trainers on the Tampa staff....or Gepettos opinion.

 

 

Thanks bro

Have your own opinion or be rotoworlds little biotch. References are great, but just because you posted them doesn't make them any better than anything else posted here. Bring what you think!

[rosslive99 1]

Sure, every player mentioned in this thread is unlikely to be good. However, some of the players named are more likely than others. Rookies with a mediocre to bad QB are certainly in the "extremely very very unlikely to ever put up top 25 WR production in 2010" category.

 

The guys mentioned so far that I think should be drafted in a 12-14 team league are (in no particular order):

 

Royal

Gaffney (after some more research, he should prolly be drafted too)

Knox

Hester

Aromashodu

Schilenz

Murphy

Heyward-Bey

Naanee

Mason

M. Kelly

D. Thomas

L. Robinson

D. Avery

Jacoby Jones

Britt

 

The rest of the guys we're naming off are HUGE long shots, and just have too many factors working against them to bother with drafting. The whole point of this exercise is to name the most likely of the unlikely. And also, we should be naming guys who are worthy of *drafting*. Its pointless to make silly far out predictions about who will break out if it doesn't help us draft better. Sure, Dexter McCluster might break out. But it will probably take at least until week 6 or so for his talents to get noticed and for him to start breaking out. And he's also highly unlikely because he's a rookie and he's buried under Dwayne Bowe & Chris Chambers. He's not worth drafting, and should remain on the waiver wire of your league until you see something promising in a legit game.

 

For example, we know that rookie WR's usually don't have breakout huge years. However, most of the sleepers you guys are offering up are rookies! Sure, Dez Bryant could have a Randy Moss style rookie year and blow up for some serious fantasy pointage, but most of the other rookies being named (Williams, Benn, McCluster, Tate, Shipley, ect.) do not have that ability.

 

And lastly, you guys are also setting your standards too low. Drafting some guy who is *really* un-heard of and having him post a 50/600/3 (WR4 type numbers) line for his season is pretty pointless. Maybe in 16 team leagues that kind of production makes it into the starting line up, but for most of us, that isn't winning anyone any fantasy championships. We should be looking for high ceilings!

 

So if you've come here to flex how much obscure knowledge you have of some group of WR's, this isn't the place. I'd like for this thread to be a go to list of WR's that are draftable in the late rounds of the draft. And naming off guys like Dexter McCluster (who shouldn't be drafted except in a crazy deep league with deep benches) doesn't help us.

 

And of the WR's in Tampa, statistically, Stroughter and Clayton are more likely to break out than the rookies are... just sayin'.

 

 

Cant wait to bring this post back up

[stonewall 647]

 

 

The guys mentioned so far that I think should be drafted in a 12-14 team league are (in no particular order):

 

Royal

Gaffney (after some more research, he should prolly be drafted too)

Knox

Hester

Aromashodu

Schilenz

Murphy

Heyward-Bey

Naanee

Mason

M. Kelly

D. Thomas

L. Robinson

D. Avery

Jacoby Jones

Britt

 

The rest of the guys we're naming off are HUGE long shots, and just have too many factors working against them to bother with drafting.

 

 

Doucet certainly belongs with these guys.

[remote controller 143]

Cant wait to bring this post back up

why not something you posted??

[c9h13no3 0]

Doucet certainly belongs with these guys.

Yeah, mebbe. But with Breaston & Fitzgerald still hanging out in Arizona, isn't that just a ton of mouths to feed for Matt Leinart? Robinson/Avery are on there because there's no real capable receiver in StL, so if one of them can be a go-to guy for Bradford, they could possibly attain decent numbers. I think keeping Fitzgerald at his same level of production is about as much as we can ask of Leinart... but then again maybe he'll pull an Aaron Rodgers after studying under Warner for a while.

 

Keep in mind, the top QB's in the league (Brees, Rodgers, Manning, Brady) are probably the only QB's that can put two WR's in the top 30. Other than that, its a semi-rare thing to see two WR's on the same team blow up the stat sheet.

 

And since people have mentioned Kenny Britt, shouldn't we be mentioning Nate Washington as well? Britt showed up to OTA's out of shape. And while Washington is entering his 5th year as a pro (so he's a little old for a breakout) he has seen his reception totals increase every year. And if I recall correctly, he spent some of last season dealing with a nagging ham string injury.

 

Another obvious candidate that I can't believe I missed was Austin Collie. His ADP is about right, and he's the right age. He's not a starter though, and he's now got Gonzo to deal with. I'm not really sure what to put this guy's ceiling at. To me, he seems to be in the same category as Edelman. If you really need a somewhat reliable, low ceiling flex guy, he's useful. But I don't think he'll ever be a fantasy starter week in & week out.

[remote controller 143]

Gaffney (after some more research, he should prolly be drafted too)

Thanks for checking it out deeper. None of us knows everything, but now and then each of us have something that has a chance of working out.

 

Great post as it stirred up plenty of input! I really should have showed some balls and stated I had him at 25 this year.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Sure, every player mentioned in this thread is unlikely to be good. However, some of the players named are more likely than others. Rookies with a mediocre to bad QB are certainly in the "extremely very very unlikely to ever put up top 25 WR production in 2010" category.

 

The guys mentioned so far that I think should be drafted in a 12-14 team league are (in no particular order):

 

Royal

Gaffney (after some more research, he should prolly be drafted too)

Knox

Hester

Aromashodu

Schilenz

Murphy

Heyward-Bey

Naanee

Mason

M. Kelly

D. Thomas

L. Robinson

D. Avery

Jacoby Jones

Britt

 

The rest of the guys we're naming off are HUGE long shots, and just have too many factors working against them to bother with drafting. The whole point of this exercise is to name the most likely of the unlikely. And also, we should be naming guys who are worthy of *drafting*. Its pointless to make silly far out predictions about who will break out if it doesn't help us draft better. Sure, Dexter McCluster might break out. But it will probably take at least until week 6 or so for his talents to get noticed and for him to start breaking out. And he's also highly unlikely because he's a rookie and he's buried under Dwayne Bowe & Chris Chambers. He's not worth drafting, and should remain on the waiver wire of your league until you see something promising in a legit game.

 

For example, we know that rookie WR's usually don't have breakout huge years. However, most of the sleepers you guys are offering up are rookies! Sure, Dez Bryant could have a Randy Moss style rookie year and blow up for some serious fantasy pointage, but most of the other rookies being named (Williams, Benn, McCluster, Tate, Shipley, ect.) do not have that ability.

 

And lastly, you guys are also setting your standards too low. Drafting some guy who is *really* un-heard of and having him post a 50/600/3 (WR4 type numbers) line for his season is pretty pointless. Maybe in 16 team leagues that kind of production makes it into the starting line up, but for most of us, that isn't winning anyone any fantasy championships. We should be looking for high ceilings!

 

So if you've come here to flex how much obscure knowledge you have of some group of WR's, this isn't the place. I'd like for this thread to be a go to list of WR's that are draftable in the late rounds of the draft. And naming off guys like Dexter McCluster (who shouldn't be drafted except in a crazy deep league with deep benches) doesn't help us.

 

And of the WR's in Tampa, statistically, Stroughter and Clayton are more likely to break out than the rookies are... just sayin'.

 

 

I frankly don't give a crap who YOU think should be drafted in a 12-14 team league.

 

Here are the guys on YOUR list that I would not even consider drafting at their current ADP:

Royal - Eddie has deep speed and juke moves, but he still can't run a route tree and still can't recognize a zone defense from a man defense, so I don't see the upside with him a slot guy in Denver's offense - especially at an ADP of 126. Gaffney is a MUCH better value with an ADP at least two full rounds later.

 

Drafting Schilens (ADP 155), Murphy (ADP 192),or DHB (ADP 233) is ludicruous. Cable will have the luxury this year to go with a ball-control offense. The only guys I'd draft from the Raiders are Zack Miller and Michael Bush. These 3 guys will pretty much split up the remaining targets with McFadden after Miller gets his 115 targets or so.

 

Devin Thomas at his current ADP of about 154. The guy has had opportunity after opportunity and done NOTHING. At least Malcolm Kelly (ADP 224) had an excuse with his knees. Not that I'd consider him either until I at least see what happens in pre-season anyway.

 

Avery - He's pretty much a "one horse pony - go route" guy similar but with less talent than Eddie Royal and with very likely a rookie QB and a porous O-line and at his ADP (149)??? Insane! I've watched him play. He also has nowhere near the same talent as either Benn or Mike Williams, who have both a better O-Line and a better QB - however I would probably consider L Rob at his ADP (221). L Rob is also far more talented than Avery.

 

And your "statistically" line about Stroughter and Mike Clayton is pure bullsh!t. Statistics are a part of fantasy football, but more important is what you see on the field (and in the case of rookies, how their skills might translate to the NFL). Stroughter is what he is, a mediocre talent as a slot receiver - and even bringing up Mike Clayton tells me you either don't watch football at all or you have no ability to translate what you see on the field to any semblance of fantasy relevance. Of course, neither of those two WRs are listed on anyone's top 80 WRs that I have seen, and I've looked at quite a lot of WR lists.

 

But both Benn and Mike Williams ARE usually drafted in 12 team 16 player leagues, as is Dexter McCluster.

 

Benn - 14th round ADP 163

McCluster - 14th round ADP 166

Mike Williams - 15th round ADP 182

 

And the reason that these guys are being taken as late round filers in nearly every draft, sir, is their UPSIDE.

 

I get it: you don't study much or particularly like rookie WRs. I do. In a ppr league, I'm taking McCluster over Chambers all day long and twice on Sundays. I have them projected just about dead even in regular scoring format. So to say that McCluster is "buried" behind Chambers is about as dumb as saying that Dez Bryant is "buried" behind Roy Williams. McCluster is FAR more talented than Chris Chambers ever was (as a Wisconsin Alum, I got to watch a lot of Chambers at Camp Randall Stadium and of course on TV in the pros).

 

Many of us who have studied these players even before they were drafted believe these WRs are very reasonable "deep sleepers" While some might not become more than WR3-4's on our teams (if that, since nobody gets a real high percentage of these guys right anyway), they do have the potential to far exceed their ADP. And there is nobody that I or anyone else mentioned on this list who is really "unheard of" by anyone who has 2 cents worth of fantasy football knowledge.

 

FYI, I have had some very good success with drafting rookie WRs over the years. I drafted Greg Jennings his rookie year, picked up Marques Colston after the draft, but before he played his first game, and told a friend who had exhausted his "target list" to draft NYs then rookie Steve Smith in the last round of his deep keeper league. And last year I drafted Hakeem Nicks. So don't tell me who is or isn't draftable in a 12 team league.

[IGotWorms 4,058]

Great pissing contest going on in this thread!

 

 

 

 

BTW, I like McCluster and Naanee the most out of the "deep sleeper" WRs. Naanee has all the tools and should get a lot more targets this year. Even if VJax is not traded, he is pretty much guaranteed to sit out until week 10 because he already lost money by not signing his restricted free agent tender and it appears that the Chargers will not capitulate to his demands for a new contract. McCluster has a ton of talent and will quickly become the kind of player who should have the football in his hands.

[c9h13no3 0]

The beauty of the internet is that everyone gets an opinion. The ugliness is that lots of people hate listening to others talk. I guess people get defensive when they get disagreed with, but wow you guys take it to a whole new level. I'm taking what you guys say into consideration. Don't get all offended if you feel you're not being paid attention to.

 

You're right, I don't watch many games (I generally just watch the highlights of players I'm interested in). What I do... do is bet sports, poker, and my job involves a lot of math. So I trust what the numbers tell me, and I'm comfortable manipulating them. You having your own method doesn't take away the validity of mine (and vice versa).

 

Anyways, I was planning on taking an expanded list that I've generated and use the rankings from sites like Rotoworld, here, ect. to provide a composite ranking of these sleepers (with some modifications of course, to meet my draft objectives).

 

If someone wants to add something to this, they could maybe find some other indicators that indicate rookie success. Rookies generally don't perform well, but I'll admit the exceptions (Colston, Moss, Boldin, ect.) are certainly worth finding. If you could come up with some evidence to guide your choices, that'd help. I know people have written articles correlating draft position, size, ect. to rookie performance (some good ones on this site actually).

 

But right now, I apoligize, but I just see you guys name off pretty much every other rookie that has an ADP lower than the criteria I've specified. They don't meet the specifications of a good sleeper that I've seen in other places. The only rookies in this draft that have opportunity, size, and were drafted in the first two rounds were Dez Bryant, Demaryus Thomas, and Arrelius Benn.

 

Bryant's ADP is pretty high, so he's not really a sleeper, and there are still at least 2 good receiving threats in Dallas (Witten & Austin) so he doesn't have a ton of opportunity.

 

Thomas & Benn seem likely enough, but reports out of training camp don't seem promising for either of them.

 

So on the other guys that have been mentioned in this thread (Shipley, McCluster, ect.), there's really no indicators pointing to them doing well. In fact, they probably have all the indicators showing that they will *not* break out in their rookie year. Various fantasy sites like Rotoworld, ect. agree.

[RosterDoc 0]

I'm jumping into this one late but here's a few deep sleepers....a deep sleeper to me is a guy you get around the 10th round of your draft or later who winds up starting for your team at least a few times.

 

DEVIN THOMAS - Big upside with a capable QB in McNabb

JACOBY JONES - Deep threat on a great offense with a great QB

DEMARYIUS THOMAS - Denver can't afford to take him off the field...playing time alone should make him worthy of a few starts

JERRICHO COTCHERY - Everyone is all over Edwards and Holmes....but what about Cotchery? Holmes misses 4 games and Edwards needs stucco. Cotch went in the 12th round of a mock I did the other day.

TORRY HOLT - Definitely worth a late round gamble. Holts resume alone plus playing with Tom Brady makes him worth a late pick.

 

 

 

Cant wait to bring this post back up

 

 

 

[rosslive99 1]

Have your own opinion or be rotoworlds little biotch. References are great, but just because you posted them doesn't make them any better than anything else posted here. Bring what you think!

 

 

why not something you posted??

 

I did bring what I think, and used rotoworlds article to support my breakdown of it, my original post wasn't from rotoworld, I only used rotoworld to back up my analysis....And I would be bringing the topic back up because I quite simply threw 4 names into what I thought was the "deep WR sleeper pot" and had several nutthuggers come back like little biotches and go..."ewewewewwwwwww McCluster? Shipley? Tampa Rookie wrs?? ewwww omg why did you even bring those up, cause rotoworld said so?" No, I brought them up cause they MAY help your fantasy team, you don't agree, I don't care, and move along to the next post.

 

So because I posted some news articles on guys I'm monitoring, all of a sudden I'm rotoworlds little biotch?? LOL!!! Ok...So we should just "ignore" rotoworld now, so that rotoworld won't gain control of our fantasy knowledge?? It's information...how YOU interpret it is up to you...Sorry I didn't throw out names like Aromoshado and Austin Collie...maybe thats because names like that have been thrown out and debated on this site for several weeks...was trying to help some of you with some actual "deep sleepers" underneath all the names that have already been tossed around at nauseam...you don't like them, fine...move on...but quite frankly I think it's lame to disagree with someone's opinion and then dedicate a post to ripping the information in it, while not offering any insight to the original thread.

 

I realize the names I offered were "deep" and if your browsing this thread to do research for your little neighborhood 10 team yahoo league....guys like McCluster prolly won't help you...but if your drafting in say a WCOFF 300 dollar sattelite...You may want to look at that information, considering all the guys I mentioned are drafted in those type leagues.

[c9h13no3 0]

you don't agree, I don't care, and move along to the next post.

Sigh.... For someone who doesn't care, you're sure screwing up my thread with a bunch of personal attacks. Is it too much to ask that you actually provide some evidence for your claims? Right now, the only thing you've done is said that "McCluster is electric". If I had a nickel for every "electric" player in the NFL, I'd be dead because I'd be buried under a 50 trillion ton pile of nickels. Being called electric or good or whatever has never been an indicator of fantasy success.

 

Seriously, stop posting attacks & crap ITT please.

[rosslive99 1]

Sigh.... For someone who doesn't care, you're sure screwing up my thread with a bunch of personal attacks. Is it too much to ask that you actually provide some evidence for your claims? Right now, the only thing you've done is said that "McCluster is electric". If I had a nickel for every "electric" player in the NFL, I'd be dead because I'd be buried under a 50 trillion ton pile of nickels. Being called electric or good or whatever has never been an indicator of fantasy success.

 

Seriously, stop posting attacks & crap ITT please.

 

Sorry bro but I'm not gonna do your homework for you...you created a thread called deep sleepers....I added a few names to the pot. What do you want, 40 times and verticals? College statistics? I never came on here and trashed anyone elses suggestions....I gave some and mine were trashed with only reasons being, "they are rookies"...sorry and maybe I'm in the minority but I do believe a rookie can come in and put up numbers. Was Percy Harvin not impactful last year? I believe he was drafted somewhere in the same neighborhood that the guys I mentioned were, rounds 10 and above. What role did he fill? Oh thats right the slot...hmmmm...what a coincidence, McCluster is gonna play the slot....Well what made Percy successful? He had a good QB, he was fast, good hands...some might have described him as "electric"...ohhhhh what a coincidence, alot of people are saying the same thing about McCluster and Shipley....wow what a concept.

 

I agree this should be a thread dedicated to discussing the topic at hand and NOT about "who knows what"....but "they" started it.

[remote controller 143]

I did bring what I think, and used rotoworlds article to support my breakdown of it, my original post wasn't from rotoworld, I only used rotoworld to back up my analysis....And I would be bringing the topic back up because I quite simply threw 4 names into what I thought was the "deep WR sleeper pot" and had several nutthuggers come back like little biotches and go..."ewewewewwwwwww McCluster? Shipley? Tampa Rookie wrs?? ewwww omg why did you even bring those up, cause rotoworld said so?" No, I brought them up cause they MAY help your fantasy team, you don't agree, I don't care, and move along to the next post.

 

So because I posted some news articles on guys I'm monitoring, all of a sudden I'm rotoworlds little biotch?? LOL!!! Ok...So we should just "ignore" rotoworld now, so that rotoworld won't gain control of our fantasy knowledge?? It's information...how YOU interpret it is up to you...Sorry I didn't throw out names like Aromoshado and Austin Collie...maybe thats because names like that have been thrown out and debated on this site for several weeks...was trying to help some of you with some actual "deep sleepers" underneath all the names that have already been tossed around at nauseam...you don't like them, fine...move on...but quite frankly I think it's lame to disagree with someone's opinion and then dedicate a post to ripping the information in it, while not offering any insight to the original thread.

 

I realize the names I offered were "deep" and if your browsing this thread to do research for your little neighborhood 10 team yahoo league....guys like McCluster prolly won't help you...but if your drafting in say a WCOFF 300 dollar sattelite...You may want to look at that information, considering all the guys I mentioned are drafted in those type leagues.

Hopefully you catch on how this forum works before you fockup your next 325 posts. It's kind of easy being the guy who says, in whiny little basement dweller voice, "I can't wait to pull this thread up" nanana nana na. Figure it out and return with game. There's still hope! We love all input but let the thread continue and drop the crap.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Regarding McCluster, I'd suggest you check out You-tube and watch the kid for yourself. Electric is a good word to describe him. As a former CPA and numbers cruncher who has a PASSION for fantasy football and studys these players year 'round, I can tell you for sure that you CAN'T go just by the numbers when evaluating sleepers and expect to win anything beyond your local office league.

 

I play in quite a few different formats including the Fantasy Football Players Championship, a redraft event with 20 player rosters, no trades, and a $50,000 top prize. I've probably won more leagues than you've ever even played in.

 

So don't be quick to criticize anyone until you know a lot more about what you are talking about, and start learning about the players. You have to know why Brandon Tate and Harry Douglas (who you've never heard about)are legitimate, if longshot deep sleepers. For example Tate, not Hakeem Nicks, was the top receiver at North Carolina until he got hurt his senior year. Otherwise he would have been a first round pick. Belichick, who knows just a little bit about football, took him in the 6th round knowing that his chance of playing last year was remote. Tate's had a full year to learn NE's offense and should be 100% this year. You also have to know WHY Jabar Gaffney, who is a journeyman WR from the get-go and is far less talented than Eddie Royal, is highly likely to significantly outscore him fantasy-wise this year. Looking at the numbers just won't give you those insights.

 

BTW, since you mentioned you like to play poker, I'll tell you that my other passion is tournament and cash game no limit holdem. You must know all the probabilities in that game, of course, but being a math guy is not enough. Remembering betting patterns, looking for tells and "playing the player" is far more important to poker success. Guys who get bogged down in strictly the math of it are far too predictible to have much poker success. I've studied just about every holdem strategy book out there, and if your approach to poker is similar to your approach to FF, I could probably teach you something about poker as well.

[Mike FF Today 725]

Cool it with the personal attacks guys or you'll account will be deleted. I understand discussions can become heated and emotional at times but leave the name-calling out of it. It clutters up the board and isn't constructive to your valid points or reputation.

 

Thanks,

[kutulu 1,676]

You guys are lucky Mike stepped in...I was gonna tear you all a new one.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

James Jones

[madd futher mucker 36]

You guys are lucky Mike stepped in...I was gonna tear you all a new one.

 

 

 

 

James Jones

 

Tear, baby, tear!

 

Others may have stepped over the line in some of their posts, but I don't really think mine fell into the category of a personal attack anyway. I do believe that if you are going to start a topic you should let others have their say without telling them their opinions or choices are not valid.

 

Hopefully the OP will learn to accept all inputs to his posts and then try to find out the basis for those opinions he may disagree with before criticizing them. That way we all can share knowledge and learn a little more about the game we love.

[c9h13no3 0]

Hopefully the OP will learn to accept all inputs to his posts and then try to find out the basis for those opinions he may disagree with before criticizing them.

I know the basis for those opinions. You've outlined them in your post. I'm disagreeing with the basis for some of your opinions. This process is called "discussion".

 

Also, let me give you an example of how to provide evidence for your arguments, since apparently that's a short coming for you guys. I started out thinking Royal was the only WR to target on Denver's team, because he was the only one who fit the traditional mold of a breakout WR. However, Gaffney also deserves some consideration for the following reasons:

 

1) He's first on the depth chart.

2) Journeyman have provided top 25 WR value when placed in a spot of good opportunity (K. Curtis, Engram).

2) In the last game of the year last year, Gaffney received most of Marshall's targets when Marshall was out and posted a 14/213/0 stat line.

3) Royal was quite mediocre last year with a 47% catch percentage, and a 9.3 YPC. He at least has poor chemistry with Orton.

 

That's an argument. 68 words. Is it really too much to ask that you guys provide some reasoning like that if you're going to throw out a name? It helps that rosslive threw out a Harvin comparison, but it was a little late (plus Harvin is 20 pounds heavier, played WR in college, has a better QB... the list goes on).

 

Really, if you guys are going to throw out names that don't fit the prototypical mold of a breakout WR, you need to provide more evidence for why they'll be good. Otherwise, I'm gonna disagree with you in a heartbeat.

 

And I play mostly mixed game, fixed limit poker. So its more mathematical. But I'm always up for some HU cash NLHE or talking poker. Shoot me a PM here or on 2+2 (same user name).

[madd futher mucker 36]

No ill will, my man.

 

My point is that if someone throws out a name as a deep sleeper that you don't know about, I'd think it would be "on you" if you were at all intellectually curious, to ask why he would be considered a deep sleeper, rather than to dismiss the name as not fantasy relevant.

 

I do not feel any need to justify every name I tossed out there, but you can believe me I have my reasons for mentioning them as such. And I do not just "come here to flex how much obscure knowledge you have of some group of WR's". Most people on this bored this time of year are the hard-core fantasy junkies who already KNOW the reasons.

 

Your comment "I'd like for this thread to be a go to list of WR's that are draftable in the late rounds of the draft. And naming off guys like Dexter McCluster (who shouldn't be drafted except in a crazy deep league with deep benches) doesn't help us...." really got under my skin because you were completely wrong on two counts: He IS EXTREMELY draftable in the late rounds of even a 12 team 16 player draft as evidenced by his currnet ADP, and secondly, he is talented enough and has the opportunity to make a splash his rookie year especially because he will start - KC plays a very high percentage of 3-wide sets).

 

So show a little humility as a noobie to fantasy football in general and to this bored in particular (yes we call it "the bored"), take your blinders off. and ask more questions and make less judgments. You'll find that I and many others here are more than willing top share opinions and theories about every aspect of fantasy football. Good luck with your fantasy team this year and in your continued quest to learn more about this fascinating hobby.

[c9h13no3 0]

Okay, this thread has raged on a pretty good while, so lets try to do something constructive....

 

I've taken every WR named in this thread (and a few others) and I've put them into a tiered ranking based on the following criteria:

 

1) Ceiling - I usually do not use my late round fliers for depth purposes when I draft them as my WR4-5. So all I want in this case is their ceiling. Guys like Tory Holt may be a great bet for 40/500, but he's also a sure bet to never post 90/1300. Thus, he moves a lot lower on these rankings, because his ceiling is low.

 

2) Starter ability - How long it will take a guy to crack the starting lineup. If you're drafting a late round flier, its better to have a player that can see the field immediately so they can show off their stuff quickly. Players like James Jones have a ton of talent, but they require Donald Driver to perform poorly during the season. Thus, he's unlikely to break out in the first 4 weeks of the season. Because of this, he's bumped down in these rankings. In short, players that play immediately are better than players that have to marinade on your fantasy bench.

 

3) Other breakout factors - I've discussed in this thread, but other factors (such as being a rookie or old) will bump a player's stock down, or training camp/OTA hype will bump them up.

 

 

Also, in case you hate my rankings (which I'm sure you guys will), I've included their ranks at FFtoolbox, and FFtoday in parenthesis next to their names. I would have preferred better rankings, but most of the major sites don't update theirs very often, and their lists don't go that deep. These rankings were updated July 7th and 5th at the time I wrote this.

 

Feel free to rip this list a new one, but provide an argument for moving a player. You're not going to convince anyone reading this thread that your opinion matters unless you back it up. And obviously this list will likely change in a month or two as players move up & down the depth charts, but this is a good starting point that can be updated later. All of these WR's, of course, have ADP's that are lower than 100.

 

 

The Sleeper WR Ranking List

Name of Player (FFToolbox Ranking, FFToday Ranking)

-------------------------------------Tier #1--------------------------------

 

1. Knox (49, 45) - Starts, solid rookie numbers, chemistry with Cutler, and getting Martz. <3 <3 <3

2. Hester (53, 27)- Same as Knox, was #37 last year.

3. Royal (60, 54) - Past fantasy success, plus 3rd year WR, but 47% catch percentage last year is bad.

4. Gaffney (62, 26) - Posted 20.3 fppg in games when gets 6 targets, starts, dirt cheap ADP.

5. A. Bryant (23, 35) - Has the talent, Palmer has supported two fantasy relevant WR's before.

 

-------------------------------------Tier #2--------------------------------

 

6. Aromashodu (34, 59) - Not a starter, but everything else (talent, age, opportunity, past success) is there.

7. Britt (37, 38) - 42/701/3 as a rookie, but looks fat & titans run a ton.

8. Murphy (65, 56) - Lead Oakland WR's in rec's as a rookie, now gets upgrade at QB

9. Mason (43, 28) - Boldin in town, but if role remains the same & Boldin gets hurt some, could return to top 25.

10. Schilenz (71, 64) - Starts in Oakland, posted respectable totals, but always hurt!

11. L. Robinson (61, 80) - Averaged 16 fppg last year in first two before broken leg, but even SJax can't score TD's in StL.

 

-------------------------------------Tier #3--------------------------------

 

12. Heyward-Bey (90, 88) - Could be starting, Campbell throws a good deep ball, and getting preseason hype. Rookie stats were horrible.

13. Jacoby Jones (47, 67) - Avg 12.7 fppg when gets 4 or more targets, but gotta feed Owen & Andre first.

14. Demaryius Thomas (42, 77) - Has the size, draft position, but seasoned pros above him on depth chart.

15. M. Williams, TB (NR, 84) - Hype machine already rolling, has the size to succeed as a rookie

16. Benn (67, 48) - Big, has opportunity to start, but MW getting all the love in OTA's

17. Massaquoi (54, 42) - Is a Brown, catches Delhomme bombs, but got 94 targets last year and starts!

18. Avery (51, 39) - Sleeper since Day 1, but bland so far. 3rd time's the charm?

 

-------------------------------------Tier #4--------------------------------

 

19. James Jones (57, 74) - Driver's knees boost value. If Driver has bad game to open season, stash him.

20. N. Washington (45, 44) - Lead titans in receptions last year, but a bit late (5th year) for breakout.

21. Naanee (93, 87) - Caught 83% of his passes, and may start with no VJax, but still 3rd-4th in line for targets.

22. Doucet (70, 66) - Avg 14.9 fppg in last 4 games, but Leinart is not Warner, and #3 in pecking order right now.

23. Manningham (73, 62) - Will likely post good numbers as #3 WR, but unlikely to post great numbers.

24. Burleson (44, 60) - #34 WR last year, but now has to share with Megatron. Not getting younger, but will likely post top 50 #'s.

25. Devin Thomas (63, 93) - Popular sleeper, but has been uninspiring in past & off season unimpressive.

26. M. Kelly (99, 95) - Last season stats very unimpressive, but McNabb & Shanahan boost value.

27. Stroughter (124, 96) - 2nd year WR posted 31/334/1 as a rookie, needs to pass other rookies on depth chart before value goes up.

 

-------------------------------------Tier #5--------------------------------

 

28. B. Tate (153, 92) - If starts next to Moss, could be a huge, but shown nothing so far.

29. McCluster (79, 63) - Needs to electric slide past Chambers & Bowe, and overcome lack of size, played RB in college.

30. G. Tate (76, 70) - Small stature, rookiness, and 3rd on depth chart keeps him down here.

31. H. Douglas (156, 104) - ACL recovery going slow, no threat to break starting line up says Rotowire.

32. Holt (94, 102) - Old man from Gibsonville in serious decline, but Brady has magical powers?

33. Cotchery (72, 51) - Holmes, Edwards will cannibalize any serious upside here.

34. Shipley (NR, NR) - Positively buried on depth chart, lacks all good rookie indicators, but electric!

 

 

Now tell me how far off base I am!

[madd futher mucker 36]

Okay, this thread has raged on a pretty good while, so lets try to do something constructive....

 

I've taken every WR named in this thread (and a few others) and I've put them into a tiered ranking based on the following criteria:

 

1) Ceiling - I usually do not use my late round fliers for depth purposes when I draft them as my WR4-5. So all I want in this case is their ceiling. Guys like Tory Holt may be a great bet for 40/500, but he's also a sure bet to never post 90/1300. Thus, he moves a lot lower on these rankings, because his ceiling is low.

 

2) Starter ability - How long it will take a guy to crack the starting lineup. If you're drafting a late round flier, its better to have a player that can see the field immediately so they can show off their stuff quickly. Players like James Jones have a ton of talent, but they require Donald Driver to perform poorly during the season. Thus, he's unlikely to break out in the first 4 weeks of the season. Because of this, he's bumped down in these rankings. In short, players that play immediately are better than players that have to marinade on your fantasy bench.

 

3) Other breakout factors - I've discussed in this thread, but other factors (such as being a rookie or old) will bump a player's stock down, or training camp/OTA hype will bump them up.

 

 

Also, in case you hate my rankings (which I'm sure you guys will), I've included their ranks at FFtoolbox, and FFtoday in parenthesis next to their names. I would have preferred better rankings, but most of the major sites don't update theirs very often, and their lists don't go that deep. These rankings were updated July 7th and 5th at the time I wrote this.

 

Feel free to rip this list a new one, but provide an argument for moving a player. You're not going to convince anyone reading this thread that your opinion matters unless you back it up. And obviously this list will likely change in a month or two as players move up & down the depth charts, but this is a good starting point that can be updated later. All of these WR's, of course, have ADP's that are lower than 100.

 

 

The Sleeper WR Ranking List

Name of Player (FFToolbox Ranking, FFToday Ranking)

-------------------------------------Tier #1--------------------------------

 

1. Knox (49, 45) - Starts, solid rookie numbers, chemistry with Cutler, and getting Martz. <3 <3 <3

2. Hester (53, 27)- Same as Knox, was #37 last year.

3. Royal (60, 54) - Past fantasy success, plus 3rd year WR, but 47% catch percentage last year is bad.

4. Gaffney (62, 26) - Posted 20.3 fppg in games when gets 6 targets, starts, dirt cheap ADP.

5. A. Bryant (23, 35) - Has the talent, Palmer has supported two fantasy relevant WR's before.

 

Not exactly what I would call "deep sleepers", but a reasonable list. Knox and Hester would probably be 1 and 2. Bryant would be quite a bit above Gaffney, as would be Derrick Mason and Cotchery (who you have way down in tier 5...What's up with that????). BTW, depending on scoring format, the exact order might differ some, but the tiering would not.

 

These guys are all legit WR3 guys with WR2 upside. You already know my feelings about Eddie Royal. IMO he does not belong in this tier, or even in the next one. He's a square peg in a round hole in that offense.

 

-------------------------------------Tier #2--------------------------------

 

6. Aromashodu (34, 59) - Not a starter, but everything else (talent, age, opportunity, past success) is there.

7. Britt (37, 38) - 42/701/3 as a rookie, but looks fat & titans run a ton.

8. Murphy (65, 56) - Lead Oakland WR's in rec's as a rookie, now gets upgrade at QB

9. Mason (43, 28) - Boldin in town, but if role remains the same & Boldin gets hurt some, could return to top 25.

10. Schilenz (71, 64) - Starts in Oakland, posted respectable totals, but always hurt!

11. L. Robinson (61, 80) - Averaged 16 fppg last year in first two before broken leg, but even SJax can't score TD's in StL.

 

Massaquoi, Jacoby Jones, Aromashodu, Nanee, McCluster (especially in ppr) and Britt are in this tier for sure. All of these guys have good shots at "break-out" numbers, regardless of what you may believe.

 

Mason moves up to tier 1. Drop Shilens, Murphy and L Rob down at least a full tier.

 

-------------------------------------Tier #3--------------------------------

 

12. Heyward-Bey (90, 88) - Could be starting, Campbell throws a good deep ball, and getting preseason hype. Rookie stats were horrible.

13. Jacoby Jones (47, 67) - Avg 12.7 fppg when gets 4 or more targets, but gotta feed Owen & Andre first.

14. Demaryius Thomas (42, 77) - Has the size, draft position, but seasoned pros above him on depth chart. Do not assume any correlation between 1st year potential and when these guys got drafted, especially with this guy. He hasn't had to run anything but a "go route" in college (off of play -actions set up by feeds to Dwyer). And Denver with McDaniels and Orton NEVER runs those. They run slants and shorter timing routes, which is what makes guys like Gaffney so valuable in that offense compared to non-route runners (like Royal and Thomas). The vertical stuff is out the window or what they can pick up AFTER the catch. Remember DHB. OK he will be better than DHB was last year!

15. M. Williams, TB (NR, 84) - Hype machine already rolling, has the size to succeed as a rookie

16. Benn (67, 48) - Big, has opportunity to start, but MW getting all the love in OTA's

17. Massaquoi (54, 42) - Is a Brown, catches Delhomme bombs, but got 94 targets last year and starts!

18. Avery (51, 39) - Sleeper since Day 1, but bland so far. 3rd time's the charm?

 

In this tier I would include Manningham, Benn, Mike Williams, Golden Tate, Shipley and James Jones. Probably L Rob fits here along with Burleson, and even Nate Washington. I'd classify Burleson, N Washington along with Cotchery and Mason not as "sleepers" but as "value picks" which is a whole different subject. so this tier is a mixture of high upside guys and value picks. DHB, Demarious Thomas, and Avery don't belong here at all IMO. Full disclosure: in a recent mock I did in preparation for the 12/20 FFPC, I picked up Manninghan, Mike Williams and McCluster as late round high-upside guys.

 

-------------------------------------Tier #4--------------------------------

 

19. James Jones (57, 74) - Driver's knees boost value. If Driver has bad game to open season, stash him.

20. N. Washington (45, 44) - Lead titans in receptions last year, but a bit late (5th year) for breakout.

21. Naanee (93, 87) - Caught 83% of his passes, and may start with no VJax, but still 3rd-4th in line for targets.

22. Doucet (70, 66) - Avg 14.9 fppg in last 4 games, but Leinart is not Warner, and #3 in pecking order right now.

23. Manningham (73, 62) - Will likely post good numbers as #3 WR, but unlikely to post great numbers.

24. Burleson (44, 60) - #34 WR last year, but now has to share with Megatron. Not getting younger.

25. Devin Thomas (63, 93) - Popular sleeper, but has been uninspiring in past & off season unimpressive.

26. M. Kelly (99, 95) - Last season stats very unimpressive, but McNabb & Shanahan boost value.

27. Stroughter (124, 96) - 2nd year WR posted 31/334/1 as a rookie, needs to pass other rookies on depth chart before value goes up.

 

Eddie Royal, Brandon Tate, Harry Douglas, and Doucett are at the top of this tier, followed by Stroughter, Avery, Demarious Thomas, Murphy and Shilens. While I have both Tate and Douglas in a dynasty league, unless they showed me something special in the pre-season, I would probbly not draft ANY of these guys in a 12 team, 16 roster redraft league.

 

-------------------------------------Tier #5--------------------------------

 

28. B. Tate (153, 92) - If starts next to Moss, could be a huge, but shown nothing so far.

29. McCluster (79, 63) - Needs to electric slide past Chambers & Bowe, and overcome lack of size.

30. G. Tate (76, 70) - Small stature, rookiness, and 3rd on depth chart keeps him down here. Third on depth chart?? he'll be the starter, either opposite Housh or in the slot this year - bank on it. I just don't much like the Seahawks ability to score points.

31. H. Douglas (156, 104) - ACL recovery going slow, no threat to break starting line up says Rotowire.

32. Holt (94, 102) - Old man from Gibsonville in serious decline, but Brady has magical powers?

33. Cotchery (72, 51) - Holmes, Edwards will cannibalize any serious upside here. In my opinion, you are FAR off base on this. Edwards stands to lose the most value after Holmes comes off his suspension, not Cotchery who is steady as they come. I would draft Cotchery as a huge value pick this year, because many are thinking just like you.. I would not touch Edwards with a 10 foot pole (or if I was crazy enough to draft him late, i'd trade him after his 1st good game and well before Holmes comes back).

34. Shipley (NR, NR) - Positively buried on depth chart, lacks all good rookie indicators, but electric! Buried on the depth chart?? Quit using that phrase - on most NFL teams, depth charts are VERY fluid and talent wins out. IMO Shipley is an odds on favorite to to start in the slot. Cincy uses 3 receiver sets as their base offense.

 

Tier 5 would include Torry Holt (nothing left in the tank), Devin Thomas and DHB...both of whom have a hell of a lot to prove before I'd even remotely call them "sleepers".

 

Now tell me how far off base I am!

 

At least one guy (and I'm sure there are more) that you should have on the list is Terrell Owens. He will play this year somewhere, and he's still capable to put up WR2 numbers in the right situation. I'd have him in tier 2 or tier 3 without even knowing where he lands.

 

One final word: While I like the content of this site (and I like the Toolbox content even more), I do not take either as the final word for any of this stuff. This list is a good mental exercise, but it is far too early to rank these guys very accurately. How they look in shorts right now really doesn't mean all that much. At this point though, my top sleeper picks would be Jacoby Jones, Nanee, Knox and Hester to crack the top 20-25 WRs, but i also think you are wrong in putting so much emphasis on being top 25 as your "floor" criteria - you are way ahead if you can draft a guy in round 12 who puts up WR3 numbers consistently. Homeruns are great, but they are few and far between compared to solid "base hits".

 

But listen to - and learn to interpret - training camp coachspeak and read all of the notes and blogs from beat writers. I have been known to twitter and call beat writers personally. When I picked up Colston before his rookie year, I placed a call to the New Orleans beat writer for the NO Times-Picayune two days before the season started to verify a rumor that he was going to start opening day ahead of Devery Henderson. Best call i ever made fantasy-wise.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I just saw this article published on July 12 called Picking Wideout Fliers by Adam Levitan over at Rotoworld. Here's part of it:

 

"WHAT WE LEARNED

Above you can see all the fliers that worked out and what their situations were coming into the year. Using that data as clues, here is what we're looking for in wide receiver fliers:

 

* Talented receivers finally getting the opportunity to produce (Miles Austin 2009, Steve Smith 2009, Vincent Jackson 2008, Brandon Marshall 2007, Nate Burleson 2007).

 

* No. 2 or 3 receivers in extremely productive passing games (Robert Meachem 2009, Kevin Walter 2008).

 

* Change of scenery and/or upgrade at quarterback (Sidney Rice 2009, Kevin Curtis 2007, Wes Welker 2007).

 

* Talented rookies with a good chance at starting gigs (Hakeem Nicks 2009, DeSean Jackson 2008, Eddie Royal 2008, Dwayne Bowe 2007).

 

* I'm throwing out the Derrick Mason years. Aging veterans are almost always poor fliers. Mason is virtually the lone exception over the last few years.

 

2010 FLIERS

Here are my favorite receivers coming off the board in Round 11 or later:

 

1. JOHNNY KNOX, ADP: 109.4

Knox falls into the "moving up depth chart" kind of flier. We've talked plenty about how Mike Martz's offense will change the Bears' entire offensive attack. The problem is that if Knox continues to hold off Devin Aromashodu for a starting spot, he probably will lose his flier status. That ADP will rise into the 80s.

 

2. JACOBY JONES, ADP: 148.9

Jones is a talented receiver that will be the No. 2 or 3 wideout in an explosive passing offense. Kevin Walter has the money, but Jones is the future. This could be a situation similar to the Eagles in 2008, when DeSean Jackson clearly outplayed Kevin Curtis and received a ton of targets.

 

3. DEVIN THOMAS, ADP: 147.7

Thomas is getting an upgrade at quarterback and a change in scheme with Mike Shanahan coming on board. The light has shown signs of never coming on with Thomas, but Donovan McNabb has done great things with much less talented receivers. If Thomas is ever going to break out, he's not going to get a much better situation.

 

4. GOLDEN TATE, ADP: 126.3

Much like rookies Bowe in 2007 and Jackson in 2008, Tate is arguably the most talented receiver on his team's roster. And just like Bowe, Jackson, Royal and Nicks, he was a second-round choice or better in the real draft. Out of all the rookie receivers, Tate has the best opportunity to produce right now.

 

5. JAMES JONES, ADP: 163.7

Jones is currently the No. 3 receiver in the Packers' high-powered passing game, but that could change quickly. With Donald Driver's knees in questionable condition, Jones appears ready to step in at any time. He's a stash candidate that could pay off big midway through the season.

 

Honorable mention: Kenny Britt, Jabar Gaffney, Laurent Robinson, Early Doucet, Harry Douglas."

 

My observation: Lots of names on Adam's list are in common with the list generated by contributors to this post. You can read his whole article at Rotoworld.

[davidbostonisgood 2]

.... Most people on this bored this time of year are the hard-core fantasy junkies who already KNOW the reasons.

... like me.

[casper87 0]

Very insightful stuff - I appreciate the post...

 

I think it's a solid list, but the only one I'd really take a flier on is Eddie Royal. I'd gladly take him in the 9th-12th rounds as a #4/5 WR.

 

I like Johnny Knox, but I like Aromashadu better. And maybe even Devin Hester better.

I agree in Oakland, but which one? DHB probably has the most talent. Schilens is probably the most proven, but Murphy looked spectacular at times last season.

If Jackson leaves SD, I may change my stance on him. But Gates will always be the primary target, and it looks like Floyd is primed to take over Jackson's productivity. I think even with Jackson OUT OF TOWN, Naanne's ceiling is Floyd's stats last year (45/700/3-5 TD's).

 

 

I disagree about Royal--I have him as more of a bust candidate

 

I totally agree on Raiders WR's and think that Louis Murphy will be the man in Oakland. 4 TD's last year--he's gotta get better with Campbell! Maybe 62/810/7 TDs

 

Another sleeper: Kenny Britt 54/650/6

[madd futher mucker 36]

I disagree about Royal--I have him as more of a bust candidate

 

 

Let me explain my thinking about Eddie Royal. The kid thrived under Shanahan running plays that required the defense to react to him and his strengths - speed to burn and a nice open-field juke move - soft intermediate curls, fake curl and go, and juke and gos. Quite often he got separation because he could make the defender bite on his juke move.

 

He was a collossal bust in his first year under McDaniels, because the system places primary emphasis on the WR reacting to defensive reads with fairly precise route running and adaption mid-route to what he sees - in other words the system requires that the WR react to the defense, rather than just running a simple route and letting the defense react to him.

 

This doesn't play to Royal's strengths, but rather to his weaknesses. Eddie simply has not mastered re-routing based on correctly reading the defense, nor has he mastered running all of the routes. His fall-off in production had nothing to do with Marshall's role, instead it had everything to do with Royal's lack of development in a completely different system. i do not believe that keeping Royal in the slot will help very much at all until he can recognize a defense and make the right adjustments.

 

Eddie has talent, no question about that. But he has not been a technician - he does not appear to be a student of the WR position. Normally a guy like Eddie in this system would be a very strong candidate to be a 3rd year breakout, because by his 3rd year he's "got it". But playing in a more limited system under Shanahan, and now moving more completely to the slot role probably means that Eddie won't really "get it" until next year, if then.

 

But perhaps I'm underestimating Eddie Royal. The light bulb might just come on for him this year. If it does, yes, he's a very nice sleeper. but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

[casper87 0]

Let me explain my thinking about Eddie Royal. The kid thrived under Shanahan running plays that required the defense to react to him and his strengths - speed to burn and a nice open-field juke move - soft intermediate curls, fake curl and go, and juke and gos. Quite often he got separation because he could make the defender bite on his juke move.

 

He was a collossal bust in his first year under McDaniels, because the system places primary emphasis on the WR reacting to defensive reads with fairly precise route running and adaption mid-route to what he sees - in other words the system requires that the WR react to the defense, rather than just running a simple route and letting the defense react to him.

 

This doesn't play to Royal's strengths, but rather to his weaknesses. Eddie simply has not mastered re-routing based on correctly reading the defense, nor has he mastered running all of the routes. His fall-off in production had nothing to do with Marshall's role, instead it had everything to do with Royal's lack of development in a completely different system. i do not believe that keeping Royal in the slot will help very much at all until he can recognize a defense and make the right adjustments.

 

Eddie has talent, no question about that. But he has not been a technician - he does not appear to be a student of the WR position. Normally a guy like Eddie in this system would be a very strong candidate to be a 3rd year breakout, because by his 3rd year he's "got it". But playing in a more limited system under Shanahan, and now moving more completely to the slot role probably means that Eddie won't really "get it" until next year, if then.

 

But perhaps I'm underestimating Eddie Royal. The light bulb might just come on for him this year. If it does, yes, he's a very nice sleeper. but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

 

Great Post. I may be the one underestimating him. It seems like you have really done your homework on this guy. I consider myself a bit of a FF Geek, but I don't think I have gone to the extent of understanding what you seem to know about Royals situation. Thanks and I appreciate my new understanding of the Broncos offense and passing scheme.

[stonewall 647]

I consider myself a bit of a FF Geek, but I don't think I have gone to the extent of understanding what you seem to know about Royals situation.

 

 

LOL......yes, Madd is perhaps a bit ate up with it.

[Raider 84 29]

1. Jacoby Jones - Is this the year he finally steps it up as has 1000 6-8 tds? I don't see why not.

2. James Jones - What's not to like? Driver is 99 in football yeas with bad knees on a great offensive team.

3. Kenny Britt - Once this kid gets serious, watch out!

[Turducken 0]

I think he is...alot of people down on him. he is a forgotten man. He could easily outperform his current draft status. But 1300+ and 8-12 tds???? WOW...since I have him as my #3 in dynasty I hope you are right but I dont see it.

I don't see why 1300 and 8 is unattainable. It's not only that McNabb is a much better QB, but he likes to lock in on his best WR, while Campbell liked to throw to the tight ends a lot.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Here's some DEEP SLEEPERS! In my PPR deep dynasty supplememtal draft, looking at my draft picks and my GLARING weakness at WR and taking into account the other owner's positions of need, I'll probably get to pick 3 of the 1st 9 from the following list.

 

So does anyone want to help me rank the top 9 on this list by potential production this year as well as future stud potential?

Amendola STL

Butler SEA

Cooper PHL

Decker DEN

Dillard JAX

Doucet ARI

Douglas ATL

Easley BUF

Edelman NEP

Armani Edwards

Gibson STL

A Gonzalez IND

Hartline MIA

Kelly WASH

Meier ATL

Carlton Mitchell CLE

Murphy OAK

Morgan SF

Nelson GB

T Owens ??

Roberts AZ

Sanders PITT

Shipley CIN

Stroughter TB

Brandon Tate NEP

Mike Thomas JAX

Devin Thomas WASH

Urban KC

 

I'd like to catch WR3-WR4 production from at least two of them THIS year (that's not asking too much,now, is it?)

Fortunately I don't have to draft til August 18th so I'm sure some will scratch themselves off the list early in training camp.

 

I've got my own preliminary idea of an order for the top 9 - it would certainly include A Gonzalez and Mike Thomas, but would anyone else care to take a stab at the order of the top 9? Just for fun?

BTW if you have STRONG opinions for or against a certain player or players on this list I'd sure like to hear from ya.