Not touching a WR til Round 4 at the earliest

[thesitedoc 5]

Just looking at the numbers, even with AJ you only net about 2 ppg more than the 12 best WR from last year. There is such a long steady low slope of decline in WR's this year.

 

It's almost always the case the WR's can be found later on but I don't know if it's just last year and my feeling about this year but there really are a number of WR's in that 9-11 ppg range this year.

[Zackattack 0]

Good luck with that strategy. I would guess you will loose if you try that. I went heavy on WR's last year and won 2 out of 4 leagues. There are very few top WR's then they go down hill fast.

[stonewall 647]

I am kinda leaning the same way. In recent mocks, I have been reverting to the ole' 2 or 3 RB's early stragegy. Last night I got SJ, Jamal Charles, and Matthews out of the #10 spot in a 12 team redraft format. I then grabbed Dallas Clark in the 4th, then Hines Ward, Malcolm Floyd, and Harvin in the next 3 picks. Since I was drafting for a 4pts/TD pass format, I grabbed Eli in 9th or 10th (can't remember). Also managed to grab the NYJ defense, as well as TO, Arian Foster, Toby Gephart, and Laurent Robinson late.

 

I would be happy with such a team, of course........and am strongly considering this time-tested strategy in my real drafts, particularly if I get a late draft spot and can get RB's who are predicted to get the majority of carries like the old days. You are correct....WR's are potentially very deep. Remember, last season, several veteran WR's like Driver, Ward, and Mason, who were way down at the bottom of most draft boards, cranked out 1000+ yard seasons with respectable TD's.

[Chronic Husker 85]

Good luck with that strategy. I would guess you will loose if you try that. I went heavy on WR's last year and won 2 out of 4 leagues. There are very few top WR's then they go down hill fast.

Did you get Ray Rice in those two leagues?

[Boston Three Party 6]

Did you get Ray Rice in those two leagues?

 

He sure did.

 

And what's "loose" mean? How do you possibly **** up the word LOSE.

[RosterDoc 0]

Wrs are real tricky this year. Lots of young guys have a shot to breakout. That said...there's still a bunch of studs and you should get at least 1 of these guys on your roster. The RB pool is deeper now than ever before, the mocks I've done people are grabbing 2 WR if they draft picks 9-12 and then taking RB in the 3rd/4th.

 

The must have at least 1 list....in no particular order

 

AJ

Fitzgerald

Randy Moss

Reggie Wayne

Brandon Marshall

DeSean Jackson

Roddy White

Calvin Johnson

Greg Jennings

Sidney Rice

Marques Colston

Anquan Boldin

Steve Smith NYG

 

Those to me are guys that you will never have to worry about and could be WR1 for your team. I wouldnt feel comfortable with a guy like Hines Ward or Mike Sims-Walker manning the WR ship.

 

 

He sure did.

 

And what's "loose" mean? How do you possibly **** up the word LOSE.

 

 

 

[mdm_1971 0]

I am kinda leaning the same way. In recent mocks, I have been reverting to the ole' 2 or 3 RB's early stragegy. Last night I got SJ, Jamal Charles, and Matthews out of the #10 spot in a 12 team redraft format. I then grabbed Dallas Clark in the 4th, then Hines Ward, Malcolm Floyd, and Harvin in the next 3 picks. Since I was drafting for a 4pts/TD pass format, I grabbed Eli in 9th or 10th (can't remember). Also managed to grab the NYJ defense, as well as TO, Arian Foster, Toby Gephart, and Laurent Robinson late.

 

I would be happy with such a team, of course........and am strongly considering this time-tested strategy in my real drafts, particularly if I get a late draft spot and can get RB's who are predicted to get the majority of carries like the old days. You are correct....WR's are potentially very deep. Remember, last season, several veteran WR's like Driver, Ward, and Mason, who were way down at the bottom of most draft boards, cranked out 1000+ yard seasons with respectable TD's.

how could you be happy with that line up? ward as your #1 ? really.....floyd who is ok but dont expect him to get what vjx would get those will go to naanee..... mathews is a rookie on a team with line issues.....a sjax is going to break down at some point he can only take 8 man fronts for so long.....with this line up you would be lucky to make the playoffs....good luck...i think this year you have to take 2 wrs in the 1st 3 rounds to have a chance..... imo

[Zackattack 0]

He sure did.

 

And what's "loose" mean? How do you possibly **** up the word LOSE.

 

 

How about 12 beers, tequila and a little ganja?

 

My theory is that there is alot less risk with taking say Reggie Wayne, AJ, Moss in round 1. After C.J., MJD, AP,RR, Gore and Turner the backs all have major question marks. S.Greene and Mendy are the next backs off most boards. They are pretty risky for me. If I was picking in the top 6 I would likely take one of the backs listed then go WR. The WR's are much more consistent year in and year out. The top 10 RB's changes greatly almost yearly. I am not wasting one of my first 3-4 round picks.

 

Values that were had last year.

 

Benson (round 6-7?)

R.Rice (yes I grabbed him in every league)

Mendenhall (round 8 or 9}

Charles (real late)

S.Greene

 

There are more. There is quite a bit less turn over in the top 10 WR's.

[Zackattack 0]

I have tried a few mocks this year with the 10 pick.I grabbed Wayne and either Marshall, Fitz or Moss. Then I grabbed Pierre, Moreno, Wells, Charles or Stewart with the 3rd and 4rth round picks. That's a pretty solid start if you ask me. You can still grab the likes of Jacobs or Best in the 5th round and have some solid RB depth.

 

It's all about VBD any way. If you skip out on drafting a WR in the first 2 rounds you will likely be hurting at WR all year. I believe you can find RB value with all the RBBC's out there. Stewart for example can be had in the 4rth round. He will be a top 15 RB. He could be a top 5 if DWILL gets hurt. That's solid for the 4rth round.

[remote controller 143]

I need a sure thing (as close as one can come to that in fantasy football) at every position, and strive for 2 of my top 10 or 12 at every position. Waiting for a WR that long would take me out of my comfort zone. In the current state of Fantasy Football I am almost locked in on 2 RB's and 2 Wr's by the end of the 4th. I then key on Qb and TE targets. If I miss them I fall back until a target of mine falls into the range selected.

[Chronic Husker 85]

How about 12 beers, tequila and a little ganja?

 

R.Rice (yes I grabbed him in every league)

 

How did I know?

 

Good for you on getting Rice last year. Seems to be a common theme of teams that drafted WR early and had success.

 

Is your plan this year to take a cluster of RBs in the middle rounds and hope one pans out? Or do you have a guy in mind that you "know" will duplicate the kind of numbers Rice put up last year?

 

Going RB/RB always reverts back to a numbers game, IMO. There are 32 starting RBs in the league. Most 12 team leagues require you to start 2 RBs. That's pretty thin.

 

Even for leagues that have a bunch of flex positions, RB is more valuable. I'd rather go into a week with SJax instead of Randy Moss because I know SJax is going to get his 20 touches. At the very worst in that situation, I can pick a starting WR off waivers. If I go with Moss early, I'm forced to hope the RBs I draft late win starting jobs. Otherwise, I'm screwed.

 

JMO

[MDC 7,329]

I won my league last year with Fitzgerald, VJax and SRice at wideout. Course, I lucked into Ray Rice late and went with the hot hand (McCoy, Maroney, Harrison) the rest of the time. Overall I'm looking for value in the draft - I'll take whatever position makes sense at the time. I'm going to take the best QB over the 6th or 7th RB on the board, even if that forces me into going hard after RBs later in the draft.

 

That said, there is so little elite WR talent this year compared to QBs or RBs, I think you're making a big mistake if you pass on an Andre Johnson or Randy Moss type just to land say SJax or Mendenhall. After the top 5-6 RBs the fantasy talent really seems to level off from 7-8 through 15 or so. On the other hand, there are very few wideouts who are a surefire bet for 1,000+ yards and a shot at double-digit TDs. I might end up going WR/QB again this year and hope to poach a diamond in the rough at RB later in the draft.

[Zackattack 0]

How did I know?

 

Good for you on getting Rice last year. Seems to be a common theme of teams that drafted WR early and had success.

 

Is your plan this year to take a cluster of RBs in the middle rounds and hope one pans out? Or do you have a guy in mind that you "know" will duplicate the kind of numbers Rice put up last year?

 

Going RB/RB always reverts back to a numbers game, IMO. There are 32 starting RBs in the league. Most 12 team leagues require you to start 2 RBs. That's pretty thin.

 

Even for leagues that have a bunch of flex positions, RB is more valuable. I'd rather go into a week with SJax instead of Randy Moss because I know SJax is going to get his 20 touches. At the very worst in that situation, I can pick a starting WR off waivers. If I go with Moss early, I'm forced to hope the RBs I draft late win starting jobs. Otherwise, I'm screwed.

 

JMO

 

Last year the Rice decision became easy as the hype (here and fflivewire)was building during camp and the preseason. Rice caught 8 passes one preseason game. It was obvious then snag the guy.I guess we will have to wait and see as camps open and teams get going.

 

potential break through backs would be

 

Best

Forsett

F.Jones

Matthews (expensive though)

Spiller

Hardesty

Tate

D.Brown.

 

There may be more names but I will focus on these guys as the season approaches.

 

 

Good luck with SJax he is on a bad team and a injury risk. The price is to high for me. Give me Moss, Wayne or Fitz instead.

[WhiteWonder 2,729]

How did I know?

 

Good for you on getting Rice last year. Seems to be a common theme of teams that drafted WR early and had success.

 

Is your plan this year to take a cluster of RBs in the middle rounds and hope one pans out? Or do you have a guy in mind that you "know" will duplicate the kind of numbers Rice put up last year?

 

Going RB/RB always reverts back to a numbers game, IMO. There are 32 starting RBs in the league. Most 12 team leagues require you to start 2 RBs. That's pretty thin.

 

Even for leagues that have a bunch of flex positions, RB is more valuable. I'd rather go into a week with SJax instead of Randy Moss because I know SJax is going to get his 20 touches. At the very worst in that situation, I can pick a starting WR off waivers. If I go with Moss early, I'm forced to hope the RBs I draft late win starting jobs. Otherwise, I'm screwed.

 

JMO

 

i agree 100% with this post.

 

i will always tend to favor RB's due to the scarcity of the positon. as Husker outlined, most leagues will require you start a minimum of 2. 32 starting backs in the NFL, some teams have 2 fantasy worthy guys but some teams don't have anyone you would want to rely on at all.

 

and every year we tend to get more waiver wire gems at WR than at RB.

 

either way, i never like to put a hard label on my draft that says I wont touch a certain position until round X. There is always a scenario that could have you changing your tune.

[#1LionFan 0]

i will always tend to favor RB's due to the scarcity of the positon. as Husker outlined, most leagues will require you start a minimum of 2. 32 starting backs in the NFL, some teams have 2 fantasy worthy guys but some teams don't have anyone you would want to rely on at all.

 

I couldnt disagree with this post more. OK, true, there are only 32 starters in any given week...but who starts between Deangelo and Stewart?....Pierre & Bush....Barber or Felix....Jacobs/Bradshaw? Any of these players could be a solid #2 or flex on any team. My point is that there are so few "feature" or "3-down" backs anymore that you do not have to go the traditional RB-RB route anymore. If you are drafting in the top 6 or so, yes, go get that stud RB, but anytime after this is when to start thinking in another direction IMO.

 

Especially in a ppr league..I believe the winning formula is getting two stud WRs so you do not have to worry about the position, then load up on a nice, deep stable of RBs. If you happen to land a stud in the meantime, all the better.

[WhiteWonder 2,729]

I couldnt disagree with this post more. OK, true, there are only 32 starters in any given week...but who starts between Deangelo and Stewart?....Pierre & Bush....Barber or Felix....Jacobs/Bradshaw?

 

i will always tend to favor RB's due to the scarcity of the positon. as Husker outlined, most leagues will require you start a minimum of 2. 32 starting backs in the NFL, some teams have 2 fantasy worthy guys but some teams don't have anyone you would want to rely on at all.

 

[remote controller 143]

He joined the day before you, hence he's smarter.

[Super Cubs 154]

To the origional post and everyone else. Do what works best for you and makes you happy. Its you team you can mess it up however you want. If we all draft the same way fantasy football would become every boring imo.

[remote controller 143]

To the origional post and everyone else. Do what works best for you and makes you happy. Its you team you can mess it up however you want. If we all draft the same way fantasy football would become every boring imo.

Kind of a recap of the whole thread if you ask me. I didn't see alot of agreement above or those requesting blueprints from each other on how to do it. How about giving some input on how you would draft or what you disagreee with from the original post.

[gitrdun 18]

Kind of a recap of the whole thread if you ask me. I didn't see alot of agreement above or those requesting blueprints from each other on how to do it. How about giving some input on how you would draft or what you disagreee with from the original post.

 

With all these cases, I usually go with the best value. I would much rather have to top wr than a #8 rb. Here is my problem. I am drafting in th 9 spot and can keep one player from last years team that was drafted in the 4th or later rounds. My top 2 players would be Moreno or Sims-Walker. I am leaning on Moreno since the stud backs will be gone by pick 8 and I can focus on 2 top receivers or a top qb. Does that sound like good stragedy?

[#1LionFan 0]

 

 

Shape it the way you want, but my point is that there is not a scarcity of RBs as there once was. By you saying that some teams have multiple fantasy options at RB proves that fact. Even weak fantasy teams such as Cleveland and Oakland have RBs that you can easily roster and play as flex starts. Because the change NFL teams have made from a workhouse to a multiple back approach, you do not need to draft RB heavy. Top 5-6 I would get one but after that it makes little sense since there are a ton of RBs that are similar and carry their own risks. I am just saying (depending on league settings) I would rather get the better, less risky players in the early rounds.

[Super Cubs 154]

Kind of a recap of the whole thread if you ask me. I didn't see alot of agreement above or those requesting blueprints from each other on how to do it. How about giving some input on how you would draft or what you disagreee with from the original post.

When drafting I kind of go with the flow of the draft and take the best player that I feel fills the need. Over reach on the players I want so I get them. Pass on the studs I dont want. I'm the guy that takes a kicker and def early.

 

My comment about how its you team you can mess it up however you want. Not bashing anyone about how they draft as much as I'm saying its your team and who cares what anyone else thinks as long as your happy do what works for you.

[jocstrap 8]

We did a 12 team,1 keeper, redraft late May and early June. I went RB RB RB - - Not planned, but I couldn't pass on Grant round 3. I had mocked #85 falling to me in every mock if I went rb-rb-rb....sure enough he did, and I 100% ok with him as my #1 wr. Follow that up with Crabtree - I'm kind of giddy.

 

 

I don't think that's a bad strategy at all

 

 

1.6 CJ2K - keeper

2.7 DeAngelo Williams

3.6 Ryan Grant

4.7 OchoCinco

5.6 Crabtree

 

QB: Carson Palmer

RB: Chris Johnson

WR: Chad Ocho Stinko

WR: Michael Crabtree

WR: Terrell Owens

FLEX: DeAngelo Williams

FLEX: Ryan Grant

TE: John Carlson

Bench: Ahmad Bradshaw

Bench: DeMaryus Thomas

bench: Justin Forsett

Bench: Malcolm Floyd

bench: Donovan McNabb

Bench: Matt Jones

Bench: Arrelious Benn

bench: Joshua Cribbs

[Quickolas1 80]

this is crazy, off-the-wall, radical thinking...

but i'd just take the player i think will out-perform his peer group each round and not be a let-down

 

that may be a RB or a WR. possibly a QB. unlikely a TE until later. never a K. not a D/ST until double-digit rounds.

 

i bring one piece of paper to a draft which i refine up until that draft (while other owners usually have multiple sheets of paper and need a table to organize it). it's players listed first by position and secondly in tiers (i usually have 4 tiers for each position). i almost always stick to getting a player in the highest tier left available at each pick.

 

i know what you're thinking...i must be taking crazy pills!!!

[madd futher mucker 36]

this is crazy, off-the-wall, radical thinking...

but i'd just take the player i think will out-perform his peer group each round and not be a let-down

 

that may be a RB or a WR. possibly a QB. unlikely a TE until later. never a K. not a D/ST until double-digit rounds.

 

i bring one piece of paper to a draft which i refine up until that draft (while other owners usually have multiple sheets of paper and need a table to organize it). it's players listed first by position and secondly in tiers (i usually have 4 tiers for each position). i almost always stick to getting a player in the highest tier left available at each pick.

 

i know what you're thinking...i must be taking crazy pills!!!

 

Not crazy at all!

 

*I do sort of the same thing, only I refine it more by adding for my reference: Bye weeks, strength of regular season schedules, strength of play-off schedule, high risk and high upside and value pick notes, and ADP.

 

I'll share with you my QB board at present:

Tier 1a:

Rodgers ADP 9, Bye 10 Playoffs ++

Brees ADP 12, Bye 10, Schedule neutral

Manning ADP 20, Bye 7, Playoffs +

Romo ADP 33, Bye 4, Schedule ++

 

Tier 1b:

Rivers ADP 39, Bye 10, Schedule neutral

Schaub ADP 42, Bye 7, Schedule -

Brady ADP 34, Bye 5, Schedule - -

 

Tier 2:

Kolb ADP 67, Bye 8, Sched ++, Playoffs +, high risk, high upside.

Eli ADP 76, Bye 8, Sched ++, Playoffs +

McNabb ADP 91,Bye 9, Schedule ++, Playoffs +

Favre ADP 82, Bye 4, Schedule neutral

Cutler ADP 66, Bye 8, Schedule +, Playoffs - -

Ryan ADP 73, Bye 8, Schedule neutral

Flacco ADP 81, Bye 8, Schedule - -

 

If I miss tier 1 because I took another position or by intent because the premier QBs went "too high" (especially the tier 1a QBs), I might consider taking TWO of the tier 2 guys (and almost surely try to would do so in leagues with 20 player rosters, although I'm a very strong believer in drafting only one QB in 10-12 team leagues with only 16 player rosters). You'll notice that 5 of the 7 tier 2 Qbs have the same Bye weeks, so I may have to work around that problem.

 

FYI, Here's tier 3:

Stafford ADP 112, Bye 7, Schedule neutral, high upside

Garrard ADP 148, Bye 9, Schedule neutral

Young ADP 127, Bye 9, Schedule neutral

A Smith ADP 130, Bye 9, Playoffs +

Palmer ADP 110, Bye 6, Schedule - -

Henne ADP 124, Bye 5, Schedule -, Playoffs - -

 

It just so happens with the QBs that the ADPs coincide pretty close to what my projections already told me about their tiers, so I did not find any "value picks" among the QB tiers. And I'm not very likely to want to pick Palmer or Henne based on their schedules. I'm also not likely to want to take any tier 4 QB on my team.

 

I do the same analysis for all of the other positions, and I have to take 3 pages to my drafts, not just one. But like Quickolas1, I'm constantly checking who is left for each tier at each position, and - unless the league has a weird scoring system, as one of mine does - I go with the flow of the draft and take the value it gives me without any pre-set strategy.

[WhiteWonder 2,729]

Shape it the way you want, but my point is that there is not a scarcity of RBs as there once was. By you saying that some teams have multiple fantasy options at RB proves that fact. Even weak fantasy teams such as Cleveland and Oakland have RBs that you can easily roster and play as flex starts. Because the change NFL teams have made from a workhouse to a multiple back approach, you do not need to draft RB heavy. Top 5-6 I would get one but after that it makes little sense since there are a ton of RBs that are similar and carry their own risks. I am just saying (depending on league settings) I would rather get the better, less risky players in the early rounds.

 

i wasn't shaping anything. you said you couldn't disagree with my post any more and listed a bunch of tandem backs as evidence..... yet i had already covered them in my post.

[Quickolas1 80]

Not crazy at all!

 

well, I was being sarcastic. in other words, why all the fussing that happens around this time each year about whether to go Rb/Rb or Wr/Wr when we know the answer is to take the best value at each pick?

 

*I do sort of the same thing, only I refine it more by adding for my reference: Bye weeks, strength of regular season schedules, strength of play-off schedule, high risk and high upside and value pick notes, and ADP.

 

To get technical, I also put the bye week next to each player. I already factor in strength of schedule and everything else in my rankings (tiers). If I have Rivers in the same tier as Schaub like you do with Rivers ahead of Schaub, it's because I've already decided I'm taking Rivers before Schaub based on all those factors.

 

An example of my running back tiers might be: studs, RB1's, RB2's, Top Backups, The Rest (catch all). This is how I feel about their value, not by league size. So in a given year I might have 5 Studs, 7 RB1's, 12 RB2's, 5 Top Backups. Obviously that's only 29 RB's. Now if it's a 14 team league, I'm hoping to get at least 3 of those and I can see whom I value as the draft is moving and players are flying off the board vs other positions and how those tiers are progressing. Underneath the RB position, for example, I might put the top 5 easiest schedules vs the run and 5 toughest. But usually I already know those from creating and tweaking the list beforehand. The draft becomes simply checking off names and double-checking bye weeks.

[kmbryant09 1]

To those posters making the point of how easy it is to grab late round, sleeper RB's (ala Ray Rice, Shonn Greene, Jamaal Charles).

 

I don't think it's that easy...I actually drafted Ray Rice mostly because of the insight provided by some members of this board, and I drafted & stashed Beanie Wells for the 2nd half (and I ended up winning my league).

 

But I think it's too difficult to predict the next Rice/Charles. We could toss around 10-15 names who have at least an outside chance of breaking the top15 RB's this year (Bradshaw, Forsett, Harrison/Hardesty, Bush/McFadden, Bush, Tate/Slaton, Donald Brown, Maroney - all of which aren't being drafted as starters). Then there are the "high-risk" players who are getting some hype and are being drafted as fringe starters (Felix Jones, Spiller, B. Wells, J. Stewart).

 

The bottom line is there's always going to be a team that hits 1 or 2 of these guys, and while you may have a slight advantage based on the # of hours you spend researching these names during the entire offseason - it's certainly no guarantee.

 

On the flip side, look how deep the WR position is:

Andre Johnson, Moss, Fitzgerald, Calvin, Wayne, Miles Austin, DeSean Jackson, Roddy White, Marshall, Sidney Rice, Steve Smith, Steve Smith, Boldin, Colston, Jennings - all of these guys have proven they can be reliable 1/2 fantasy WR's.

 

Beyond that - you have so many WR's with upside (and higher floors than most "upside RB's") - Crabtree, Floyd, MSW, Garcon, Harvin, Nicks, Bowe, Moss, Meachem.

 

Even if you grab 2 stud RB's and a top5 QB in the first 3 rounds...you could likely grab Steve Smith (4), Crabtree (5), Floyd (6). I'd rather that - and deal with some mediocre WR production, then to draft "high upside RB's", and be forced to scramble the Waiver Wire each week when your sleeper RB doesn't come thru.

[Zackattack 0]

To those posters making the point of how easy it is to grab late round, sleeper RB's (ala Ray Rice, Shonn Greene, Jamaal Charles).

 

I don't think it's that easy...I actually drafted Ray Rice mostly because of the insight provided by some members of this board, and I drafted & stashed Beanie Wells for the 2nd half (and I ended up winning my league).

 

But I think it's too difficult to predict the next Rice/Charles. We could toss around 10-15 names who have at least an outside chance of breaking the top15 RB's this year (Bradshaw, Forsett, Harrison/Hardesty, Bush/McFadden, Bush, Tate/Slaton, Donald Brown, Maroney - all of which aren't being drafted as starters). Then there are the "high-risk" players who are getting some hype and are being drafted as fringe starters (Felix Jones, Spiller, B. Wells, J. Stewart).

 

The bottom line is there's always going to be a team that hits 1 or 2 of these guys, and while you may have a slight advantage based on the # of hours you spend researching these names during the entire offseason - it's certainly no guarantee.

 

On the flip side, look how deep the WR position is:

Andre Johnson, Moss, Fitzgerald, Calvin, Wayne, Miles Austin, DeSean Jackson, Roddy White, Marshall, Sidney Rice, Steve Smith, Steve Smith, Boldin, Colston, Jennings - all of these guys have proven they can be reliable 1/2 fantasy WR's.

 

Beyond that - you have so many WR's with upside (and higher floors than most "upside RB's") - Crabtree, Floyd, MSW, Garcon, Harvin, Nicks, Bowe, Moss, Meachem.

 

Even if you grab 2 stud RB's and a top5 QB in the first 3 rounds...you could likely grab Steve Smith (4), Crabtree (5), Floyd (6). I'd rather that - and deal with some mediocre WR production, then to draft "high upside RB's", and be forced to scramble the Waiver Wire each week when your sleeper RB doesn't come thru.

 

 

Do you realize that the turn over rate for top ten RB's is usually around 50% each year. So that stud RB you are talking about could easily tank. Then where are you? What if both the ones you grabbed early tanked?

 

I think you are more likely to hit on a top WR. It is all about ADP and make safer picks in the early rounds. I would not advise to skip over all the top 12 WR's. You will more than likely be reeling all year to aquire WR help.

 

There is no given in fantasy any way you look at it. The more you read and study and do mocks the better off you will be. I always draft alot of RB's in the first 10 rounds. Some will always pan out.

[#1LionFan 0]

i wasn't shaping anything. you said you couldn't disagree with my post any more and listed a bunch of tandem backs as evidence..... yet i had already covered them in my post.

 

I disagree with your underlying point that there is a scarcity of RBs...not true.

[kmbryant09 1]

Do you realize that the turn over rate for top ten RB's is usually around 50% each year. So that stud RB you are talking about could easily tank. Then where are you? What if both the ones you grabbed early tanked?

 

I think you are more likely to hit on a top WR. It is all about ADP and make safer picks in the early rounds. I would not advise to skip over all the top 12 WR's. You will more than likely be reeling all year to aquire WR help.

 

There is no given in fantasy any way you look at it. The more you read and study and do mocks the better off you will be. I always draft alot of RB's in the first 10 rounds. Some will always pan out.

I agree with you - which is why I never (well, rarely) touch the high-risk RB's early on. I typically draft guys like Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson, Ryan Grant, MJD - consistent fantasy producers. I have shied away from the likes of Larry Johnson, Westbrook & LT in the past few years - and why I won't be drafting guys like SJAX/DeAngelo/Green - guys with a bunch of red flags.

 

If I was drafting in the top part of a 10-teamer, my team would most likely look like:

AP/Rice

Manning

Grant

Steve Smith

Crabtree

Brandon Jacobs

Malcolm Floyd

 

Steady production from the QB/RB spot, with 3 fairly safe WR's all with high potential. Then I'd likely grab a D. Mason type of WR just as a safety net.

[Gepetto 1,360]

In a start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 FLEX, 1 TE - 12 team ppr league, this is how to draft the best team:

 

RB

WR

WR

RB

WR

RB

QB

TE

 

 

You're welcome.

[JagFan 159]

In my opinion, it does not matter what you draft in the first 3 or 4 rounds - it's the mid rounds that win or lose your season. Almost every post I have read here in favor of the two stud WR approach who dominated last year did so because of Ray Rice...drafted in the mid rounds. I'm sure the person that drafted Chris Johnson in the mid to late 1st round did well as well. I'm sure the person that drafted Forte at the 5 spot did poorly last year. Make sure you get solid performers in rounds 1-4, and get lucky in rounds 5-10, and you have a winning team. Last year I took Forte at #5, AJ and Colston in rouds 2 and 3....had to sneak into the playoffs with Jamal Charles on pure luck.

[KSB2424 3,148]

I never pigeon hole myself with statements like this. I cringe when somebody says: "I'm going to go RB, RB, QB, WR" no matter what!" It makes no sense to me.

 

You tier your draft board and you take the best available guy. If that is a WR in the second round then you draft a WR. You don't skip him because of some made up rule you made for yourself.

[Gepetto 1,360]

I never pigeon hole myself with statements like this. I cringe when somebody says: "I'm going to go RB, RB, QB, WR" no matter what!" It makes no sense to me.

 

You tier your draft board and you take the best available guy. If that is a WR in the second round then you draft a WR. You don't skip him because of some made up rule you made for yourself.

 

I said WR in round 2. In anycase, I've already had two drafts and that is what usually works best. I do go by best available in relation to need, but I've seen where players are going. Not saying to definitely go that though, but that's how it likely could work out.

[WhiteWonder 2,729]

I never pigeon hole myself with statements like this. I cringe when somebody says: "I'm going to go RB, RB, QB, WR" no matter what!" It makes no sense to me.

 

You tier your draft board and you take the best available guy. If that is a WR in the second round then you draft a WR. You don't skip him because of some made up rule you made for yourself.

 

generally i agree and follow the same strat, however i also add certain guidelines to my drafting. im obviously not going to go wr-wr-wr-wr just because my tiers might dictate it. roster balance comes into play.

 

I also usually tell myself that i need to have at least 1 RB after 4 rounds. i guess it goes along with the RB>WR mentality as i would never demand i have a WR after 4 rounds. i would much rather leave a draft feeling "thin" at WR than thin at RB but thats because i think WW WR's are easier to find.

[steelers2101 7]

I'm surprised at this post and thought the title was a joke. I'm with the camp that says that outside of the top RBs, it's best to take elite WRs. This should be a no-brainer.

 

There is so much RB depth it is ridiculous, and what I mean by depth is that there are plenty of RBs out there, known and unknown, that will be clearly great options on a week to week basis. Yes, there will be WRs that blow up on certain weeks, but good luck actually having them in your lineup when that happens. With RBs, going into a game, you know who the starting RB is and know who the best options are. A guy like Leon Washington, who is currently an afterthought, could end up being huge, if he wins the starting job over Forsett. These sort of windfalls are much, much harder to find at WR.

 

Seasons like Miles Austin and Sidney Rice in 2009 are much more rare than those of Rice, Charles and Harrison (late season only) of 2009. Generally, the top WRs one year are the top WRs the next. There is little fluidity. The RB rankings are extremely fluid.

[WhiteWonder 2,729]

I'm surprised at this post and thought the title was a joke. I'm with the camp that says that outside of the top RBs, it's best to take elite WRs. This should be a no-brainer.

 

There is so much RB depth it is ridiculous, and what I mean by depth is that there are plenty of RBs out there, known and unknown, that will be clearly great options on a week to week basis. Yes, there will be WRs that blow up on certain weeks, but good luck actually having them in your lineup when that happens. With RBs, going into a game, you know who the starting RB is and know who the best options are. A guy like Leon Washington, who is currently an afterthought, could end up being huge, if he wins the starting job over Forsett. These sort of windfalls are much, much harder to find at WR.

 

Seasons like Miles Austin and Sidney Rice in 2009 are much more rare than those of Rice, Charles and Harrison (late season only) of 2009. Generally, the top WRs one year are the top WRs the next. There is little fluidity. The RB rankings are extremely fluid.

 

A guy like Leon Washngton may currently be an afterthought, but if he wins the starting job in Seattle, Juston Forsett loses value. So you are not really gaining RB's in that situation. What it more or less boils down to is 1 RB per team with the idea that a few teams are capable of having 2 fantasy worthy guys while some teams will be such a platoon that no one will be fantasy reliable on a weekly basis.

 

Someone like Ray Rice was drafted in every league last year. As early as round 4 by late August when the hype train hit full speed. Breakout WR's like Steve Smith, Sidney Rice, Mike Sims Walker and Miles Austin were all drafted very late or in some cases not at all.

[Stewburtx8 67]

A guy like Leon Washngton may currently be an afterthought, but if he wins the starting job in Seattle, Juston Forsett loses value. So you are not really gaining RB's in that situation. What it more or less boils down to is 1 RB per team with the idea that a few teams are capable of having 2 fantasy worthy guys while some teams will be such a platoon that no one will be fantasy reliable on a weekly basis.

 

Someone like Ray Rice was drafted in every league last year. As early as round 4 by late August when the hype train hit full speed. Breakout WR's like Steve Smith, Sidney Rice, Mike Sims Walker and Miles Austin were all drafted very late or in some cases not at all.

 

 

I understand what you are saying, but I don't think anyone is suggesting you wait til the 5th round to take your first RB. But I think this year, more than any other recent year, I don't really trust any RB's outside the top 6 or so. I consider Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ray Rice, Frank Gore, and Steven Jackson the elite guys. And even Jackson obviously always has injury concerns. After that, I really don't see a difference between the guys in the 7-13 range versus the guys in the 14-20 range among RB's.

 

If I miss out on the "elite" guys, I'd rather make a "safer" elite WR pick like grabbing Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, Brandon Marshall, etc., or even QB pick like Brees or Rodgers and then grab a RB with my next pick that I think can produce very similar to the guy I could of took the previous round. I think guys like Greene, Moreno, Mathews, Wells, McCoy, Stewart, P.Thomas, Addai could all easily outscore any of the guys going possibly in the group before them (Turner, Mendenhall, D.Williams, Benson, Grant, Charles). Some of the guys I listed could go in the 3rd or 4th round. So I think I can grab a Andre Johnson at the #7 pick, Peyton Manning at the #18 pick, and then still get a Wells, Moreno, Thomas in the 3rd round. If I'd go this route I'd obviously load up on RB's and make sure I have some quantity, but I could definitely see myself drafting this way this season if the draft falls that way.

 

You also have to know your league mates. I play mostly in PPR leagues with multiple flex positions, so RB's don't fly off the board near as quickly. If your league mates all draft RB heavy, then you may have to make sure you grab at least one sooner rather than much later. I think not taking a WR til the 4th round though is pretty tough. It can work, but you need to find a Miles Austin or Sims-Walker type later.

[WhiteWonder 2,729]

yeah, overall i am against having any set in stone positional strategy heading into a draft. and after my top RB are gone, i too will look at the top WR's.

 

 

my last comments were more toward the notion that RB is deeper and easier to find "out of nowhere" guys.