Arian Foster ranked 30th?

[tecklc2112 7]

Hoping to get some insight on why Foster is ranked as the 30th best fantasy RB in the updated FFToday rankings??? He is primed for a top 20 finish & is a dark horse to break into the top 10...Am I missing something?

[Law 241]

I'm not sure, but I think the being ranked 30th has something to do with 29 guys ahead of him.

 

 

 

But seriously, I see Spiller, F Jones, R Williams, and Forsett ahead of him that could be real candidates for him to pass. Would 26th make you feel better?

 

But wait, R Brown and Harrison behind him could pass him and then he'd be 28th!

 

 

There's a lot of guys "primed" for a top 20 finish. Not all can actually be top 20 though. Has for being a dark horse to break into the top 10? I'd say a real dark horse! Not based necessarily for lack of talent or even opportunity, but because to be top 10, so many others have to not be top 10. Ya follow?

[dpbuddha 9]

It seems that this website is a little slow to make any drastic changes to the rankings...don't see guys jumping up or dropping down more than a handful of spots for any reason. NFL.com has him ranked at #12.

 

http://www.nfl.com/fantasy/rankings/rb

 

Sorry, can't insert a link for some reason but there it is.

 

Edit: Well, this link might actually be for weekly projections now that I look more closely. But even still, if a guy is ranked #12 for his game against Indy there's no way he should be ranked #30 for the season.

[MDC 7,484]

Based on what I've read at FFT, Foster is a safe bet for 2,000 rushing with 80 receptions for 3,000 total yards and 25-30 touchdowns.

 

Unless he fumbles and Kubiak benches him for no reason.

[Doozer 0]

I'm not sure, but I think the being ranked 30th has something to do with 29 guys ahead of him.

 

 

 

But seriously, I see Spiller, F Jones, R Williams, and Forsett ahead of him that could be real candidates for him to pass. Would 26th make you feel better?

 

But wait, R Brown and Harrison behind him could pass him and then he'd be 28th!

 

 

There's a lot of guys "primed" for a top 20 finish. Not all can actually be top 20 though. Has for being a dark horse to break into the top 10? I'd say a real dark horse! Not based necessarily for lack of talent or even opportunity, but because to be top 10, so many others have to not be top 10. Ya follow?

 

I actually do not follow... sorry. Thanks for actual info dpbuddha.

 

MDC, I guess 7 fumbles (5 lost) on 131 carries while getting a pitiful 3.3 ypc average means Kubiak randomly benched Slaton for fumbling once or twice as you put it. I'm not saying a pinched nerve didn't have anything to do with it, but he was benched for a very clear reason, and that shouldn't dissuade owners for trading for/drafting foster imo.

[Law 241]

I actually do not follow... sorry. Thanks for actual info dpbuddha.

 

MDC, I guess 7 fumbles (5 lost) on 131 carries while getting a pitiful 3.3 ypc average means Kubiak randomly benched Slaton for fumbling once or twice as you put it. I'm not saying a pinched nerve didn't have anything to do with it, but he was benched for a very clear reason, and that shouldn't dissuade owners for trading for/drafting foster imo.

 

 

That's unique way of spelling douche!

[kmbryant09 1]

Not really sure why you are getting some D-Bag responses...

 

Based on his situation (top5 offense; solid O-Line), his preseason performances, and his competition (Tate out for the year, Slaton returning kicks & has turf toe)...he merits a top 10 ranking.

 

However, it is Houston, and it is Gary Kubiak...He tends to have a short leash with RB's, especially when they fumble, but I'm not really sure who they could replace Foster with if he gets benched.

 

If he's the main guy for 16 games this season - he will be a top 10 back. But as others have said, he could be one or two fumbles from being buried on the depth chart.

[Doozer 0]

I'm not sure, but I think the being ranked 30th has something to do with 29 guys ahead of him.

 

 

 

But seriously, I see Spiller, F Jones, R Williams, and Forsett ahead of him that could be real candidates for him to pass. Would 26th make you feel better?

 

But wait, R Brown and Harrison behind him could pass him and then he'd be 28th!

 

 

There's a lot of guys "primed" for a top 20 finish. Not all can actually be top 20 though. Has for being a dark horse to break into the top 10? I'd say a real dark horse! Not based necessarily for lack of talent or even opportunity, but because to be top 10, so many others have to not be top 10. Ya follow?

 

 

That's unique way of spelling douche!

 

You say he has talent and opportunity (on a very good offensive team -- where Slaton got 1500 total yards and 10 tds as a rookie only two years ago). Call my crazy but isn't FF all about predicting what's going to happen next year? What more could you ask for? I see no difference next year between Matthews (SD) and Foster (Hou), just that people remember how great LT was in an entirely different SD offense 3+ years ago, so they automatically assume Matthews will jump right in and be super productive!

 

Bottom line is that (imo) Foster's ranking is entirely too low, this was a post that was rather insightful in pointing that out... Congrats on your post count, I can tell you've been working hard at it ;D

[Doozer 0]

Not really sure why you are getting some D-Bag responses...

 

Based on his situation (top5 offense; solid O-Line), his preseason performances, and his competition (Tate out for the year, Slaton returning kicks & has turf toe)...he merits a top 10 ranking.

 

However, it is Houston, and it is Gary Kubiak...He tends to have a short leash with RB's, especially when they fumble, but I'm not really sure who they could replace Foster with if he gets benched.

 

If he's the main guy for 16 games this season - he will be a top 10 back. But as others have said, he could be one or two fumbles from being buried on the depth chart.

Who is he going to be buried under, Chris Henry? You guys act like Slaton fumbled the rock only a few times last year... he was TURRIBLE!

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

Well Foster was picked ahead of me in the draft, so I'll never really get the fruits of his efforts this season. However, I did manage to pick up Hightower, who I think is starting. I don't see why Hightower can't be top 15 material.

[MDC 7,484]

I'm not trying to be a Dbag, I'm just a little leery of drafting a RB on a pass-first team with a coach who's got a quick hook in the 3rd round - I think Foster is a little overhyped.

[Laurence Maroney's Nuts 2]

Based on what I've read at FFT, Foster is a safe bet for 2,000 rushing with 80 receptions for 3,000 total yards and 25-30 touchdowns.

 

Unless he fumbles and Kubiak benches him for no reason.

 

You're being a little conservative with those numbers.

 

I only drafted two players for my whole team -- Arian Foster and Jermichael Finley. It would be cruel for me to field a whole team when I have those two guys...

[LunaTick 30]

I think it comes down to two things.

 

1. Denver connection. Kubiak. Has a long history of not relying upon a single feature rb. This stated, is unlikely that Foster will get 16 games as the starter with 20 carries.

2. A Johnson factor.

 

FFToday is factoring in Kubiak.

NFL is saying this doesn't apply to Foster.

 

Both have the potential of being correct.

But what looks right on paper doesn't always happen on Sundays.

[kmbryant09 1]

Who is he going to be buried under, Chris Henry? You guys act like Slaton fumbled the rock only a few times last year... he was TURRIBLE!

As I mentioned - I'm not sure they even have depth to bench Foster...but you can't deny that Kubiak has a short leash with his RB's. IF he has/had the depth, and Foster does one small thing to get into the dog house...then he'll be a bust. But like I said, Kubiak has been singing his praises, and I'm not sure they can afford to bench Foster.

 

I'm not trying to be a Dbag, I'm just a little leery of drafting a RB on a pass-first team with a coach who's got a quick hook in the 3rd round - I think Foster is a little overhyped.

Who said anything about a 3rd rounder? The O.P. simply started a discussion about A. Foster, saying he thought he was undervalued at RB #30. Since when is #30 a 3rd rounder? I got him a week and a half ago in the 7th round, my guess is he's going in the 4th-5th round, around Forte/Addai/Stewart/Moreno.

 

You can't really argue that any of those guys offer the kind of upside that A. Foster offers. And they all have question marks. Again, I didn't see any problems with the original post, yet there were 3-4 people/posts absolutely bashing the topic with sarcastic comments.

[IGotWorms 4,058]

A 30th ranking is just plain stupid. This guy should be top 15. Yes there is some risk with him, but there is also a very real possibility that he finishes in the top eight or so. Great offense, nobody really competing for carries, he's looked really good, the coach has been singing his praises...how could it get any better for him at this point?

[Busted by the Feds 9]

We gotta see how he does in real action first (not pre-season). Hype is not going to make him a top 10 RB. A lot of people drinking the Kool Aid right now and hoping that they didn't reach for him.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

This thread is by a Foster owner who can't believe someone has the audacity to rank Arian lower than a top 15 RB. And there are other obvious Foster owners chiming in as well.

[airek 0]

I think it is reasonable to use the third week of preseason as a viable measure of how a team intends to use a player as well as how that player may perform. I was very nervous that everyone would reach for Foster after the Dallas game. He flat out played great against a top rushing defense. And his game totals didn't tell the whole story, as he even had a TD called back due to a penalty.

 

I was also concerned early on as to how the change in offensive coordinators would impact all of the Texans' fantasy production. Well, the new OC kept the passing packages and appears to have greatly improved the run packages as well as the checkoffs - both heavily favoring the likelihood that Foster will have good production.

 

Combine these factors with the others that have been stated and Foster has a high probability of success. He should be drafted as a high RB2 with a good chance of production at the RB1 level. If you think a high RB2 with upside is worth a third round pick (I do), then that is where he should be drafted (at least that is how I evaluate picks).

[MDC 7,484]

I only drafted two players for my whole team -- Arian Foster and Jermichael Finley. It would be cruel for me to field a whole team when I have those two guys...

 

Agreed. If you landed Javid Best too they'd just have to dissolve the league and hand you a big check before the first game.

[FeelingMN 273]

As a Foster owner, I don't care if he's ranked #1 or #100. What matters is what he does with the opportunity he's been given; starting this weekend against Indy.

 

All I want out of my RBs is to have the chance to consistently produce on a weekly basis. Foster's been given that chance, so now he has to do something with it.

 

Personally, I think the Kubiak angle is overblown. Slaton was never viewed as a true #1 back....there was always talk about changing his role within that offense. Add to the fact he couldn't hold onto the ball, and voila.....dude gets benched.

 

If Foster runs well and hangs onto the ball....if he does what he's asked to do, Kubiak will stick with him. That's all there is to it.....and that holds true for pretty much every back in the NFL.

 

And I think people want validation for their teams. They want to see all their players held in high regard by others in the FF Community so they can rest assured they drafted well. Sorry, it doesn't work like that.

 

Preseason rankings are kinda dumb anyway. I saw Mark Sanchez ranked as the QB12 in one publication. The same article ranked all Jets' receivers in the 40s....Keller outside the top TE15....LT in the late 30s. How the hell is Sanchez the QB12 then? Dumb.

[RicemanX 20]

Foster has to be one of the most overhyped players on FFT this offseason.

 

But I tend to believe in the FFT crew and I think he could put in a great season. With that said..he is not going to be top 20...but close to it.

[PackYourNut 47]

Typically, when EVERYONE is saying a guy is going to be great and signing his praises before he has ever done anything, they are wrong. This is hype and typical heard mentality. And the heard usually runs right off a cliff, only to get eaten by a bunch of hungry Indians!

 

Just saying.

[edjr 6,608]

Based on what I've read at FFT, Foster is a safe bet for 2,000 rushing with 80 receptions for 3,000 total yards and 25-30 touchdowns.

 

Unless he fumbles and Kubiak benches him for no reason.

 

no running back is a safe bet in the NFL any longer

[We Tigers 71]

Doug has him at #10 in both his big boards released today, so there's certainly some positive thinking on him here.

[fanfootballtn 33]

Maybe he has a reflection hidden somewhere on the cover of Madden 2011.

[Doozer 0]

IMO, this short leash thing with Kubiak and his RB is a bit of hogwash...

 

2006 - Hou Rbs: Ron Dayne, Samkon Gado, Wali Lundi, Vernand Morency... Dayne lead the pack in carries and gained his coaches confidence by the end of the year... so much so that in 2007...

2007 - Dayne plays in 13 games, starts in 8 and gets 194 carries, replacing a very... very ineffective Ahman Green. Kubiak didn't have a short leash on Green imo, he was just awful and Dayne produced.

2008 - Slaton's big year. 1600 yards from scrimmage, 250+ carries and 10 TDS... did I mention he was a rookie? No short leash to speak of

2009 - Slaton fumbles 7 times and is largely ineffective in 131 carries (3.3 ypc). If you think that's a short leash for benching him... the mega talented Ryan Moats posted a 4.0 ypc... Lastly, the most productive runner on the Texans last year was... Arian Foster.

 

 

Where is this short leash ###### coming from?

[Laurence Maroney's Nuts 2]

IMO, this short leash thing with Kubiak and his RB is a bit of hogwash...

 

2006 - Hou Rbs: Ron Dayne, Samkon Gado, Wali Lundi, Vernand Morency... Dayne lead the pack in carries and gained his coaches confidence by the end of the year... so much so that in 2007...

2007 - Dayne plays in 13 games, starts in 8 and gets 194 carries, replacing a very... very ineffective Ahman Green. Kubiak didn't have a short leash on Green imo, he was just awful and Dayne produced.

2008 - Slaton's big year. 1600 yards from scrimmage, 250+ carries and 10 TDS... did I mention he was a rookie? No short leash to speak of

2009 - Slaton fumbles 7 times and is largely ineffective in 131 carries (3.3 ypc). If you think that's a short leash for benching him... the mega talented Ryan Moats posted a 4.0 ypc... Lastly, the most productive runner on the Texans last year was... Arian Foster.

 

 

Where is this short leash ###### coming from?

 

The point being you need both hands to count the "feature" RBs that Kubiak has mowed through in only 4 years... So forgive some judicious owners for having some reservations with this Texans RB situation. I mean, fock, at the rate you've demonstrated above, this board will be giving hj's to Jeremiah Johnson by week 7 or so.

 

And I think Foster will be fine, but the whole circle j3rk regarding him has gotten ghastly around here

[Phil Simms 11 133]

Foster & slaton will both suck this season. Pass it to AJ all friggin day please

[Doozer 0]

The point being you need both hands to count the "feature" RBs that Kubiak has mowed through in only 4 years... So forgive some judicious owners for having some reservations with this Texans RB situation. I mean, fock, at the rate you've demonstrated above, this board will be giving hj's to Jeremiah Johnson by week 7 or so.

 

And I think Foster will be fine, but the whole circle j3rk regarding him has gotten ghastly around here

My point is that Kubiak doesn't have a short leash at all, just a lack of talented runners... Ron Dayne, Wali Lundy, 30 year old Ahman Green with knees of wax, Vernand Morency, Samkon Gado... Slaton was the only one with a bit of talent, and he had a very productive year before he was injured and started fumbling like no ones business... 100% of the coaches in this league would bench an RB that fumbled 7 ###### times in 131 carries and was averaging less than 3.5 YPC...

2009

Week 15 Arian Foster @MIA 19-97-1

Week 16 Arian Foster NWE 20-119-2 3-26-0

[Laurence Maroney's Nuts 2]

My point is that Kubiak doesn't have a short leash at all, just a lack of talented runners... Ron Dayne, Wali Lundy, 30 year old Ahman Green with knees of wax, Vernand Morency, Samkon Gado... Slaton was the only one with a bit of talent, and he had a very productive year before he was injured and started fumbling like no ones business... 100% of the coaches in this league would bench an RB that fumbled 7 ###### times in 131 carries and was averaging less than 3.5 YPC...

2009

Week 15 Arian Foster @MIA 19-97-1

Week 16 Arian Foster NWE 20-119-2 3-26-0

 

If 2 weeks, late in the season gives you what you consider a significant sample size then... I really don't know what to tell you.

 

Wali Lundy was all the rage on this bored too. And so was Samkon Gado. And Steve Slaton.

 

Again, let's just keep things in perspective here.

[Doozer 0]

If 2 weeks, late in the season gives you what you consider a significant sample size then... I really don't know what to tell you.

 

Wali Lundy was all the rage on this bored too. And so was Samkon Gado. And Steve Slaton.

 

Again, let's just keep things in perspective here.

FF is about finding trends however small the sample size... My point is he finished very strongly last year, and he looks to have taken that momentum into 2010 preseason... playing very well against a top run defense in the third (most important) preseason game. You can ignore all of this, and just say that oh, he'll fumble once and be in Kubiak's doghouse... but that's where i disagree with the majority of posters... it wasn't like Slaton fumbled once or twice, even three times, or four times, or five times, he fumbled seven ###### times!

 

If Gado was so great, why did GB cut him after a year and a game? Wali Lundy... REALLY? Slaton's hype was justified... no one can predict injuries imo.

 

Talented runner... check.

Potent offense... check.

WR #1... check.

Quality QB to keep defenses honest... check.

Limited competition... check.

Played well in limited opportunity... check.

 

Someone tell me the difference between him and Ryan Matthews... honestly.

[R8RMick 242]

My point is that Kubiak doesn't have a short leash at all, just a lack of talented runners... Ron Dayne, Wali Lundy, 30 year old Ahman Green with knees of wax, Vernand Morency, Samkon Gado... Slaton was the only one with a bit of talent, and he had a very productive year before he was injured and started fumbling like no ones business... 100% of the coaches in this league would bench an RB that fumbled 7 ###### times in 131 carries and was averaging less than 3.5 YPC...

2009

Week 15 Arian Foster @MIA 19-97-1

Week 16 Arian Foster NWE 20-119-2 3-26-0

 

 

Agreed. I think deep down the Kubiak is just dying to ride a workhorse back to a wildcard berth. In fact, I see Foster as being in the same boat as Pierre Thomas, with a much less talented Reggie Bush there to steal the cheese. In that offense, all this kid has to do is hold onto the rock and trip over the goal line and he's a top 10-15 back easily.

[Laurence Maroney's Nuts 2]

 

 

If Gado was so great, why did GB cut him after a year and a game? Wali Lundy... REALLY? Slaton's hype was justified... no one can predict injuries imo.

 

 

Kinda my point. The same people f3llating Arian Foster were the same guys pumping Wali Lundy on this board... and James Davis... And Laurence Maroney. People like to get caught up in preseason hype. Everyone wants to be the guy that can say, "Oh, I called it. I knew this guy was gonna be a stud."

 

And I get what you're saying about Foster. He's in a good situation. But it's hardly a foregone conclusion that he's the next Marshall Faulk, which is what you'd think if you followed the threads on this bored.

[We Tigers 71]

Kinda my point. The same people f3llating Arian Foster were the same guys pumping Wali Lundy on this board... and James Davis... And Laurence Maroney. People like to get caught up in preseason hype. Everyone wants to be the guy that can say, "Oh, I called it. I knew this guy was gonna be a stud."

 

And I get what you're saying about Foster. He's in a good situation. But it's hardly a foregone conclusion that he's the next Marshall Faulk, which is what you'd think if you followed the threads on this bored.

Two small fallacies here. First, I don't think anyone's saying he's going to be an all-timer. Optimistic expectations look to be in the AFC Ryan Grant realm. Second, I wasn't here for Lundy or Maroney, but getting hyped about James Davis was about spending a 12th rounder or later on a super sleeper. I don't think the comparison holds, nor did drafting Davis really hurt anyone last year given his minimal cost.

[Laurence Maroney's Nuts 2]

Two small fallacies here. First, I don't think anyone's saying he's going to be an all-timer. Optimistic expectations look to be in the AFC Ryan Grant realm. Second, I wasn't here for Lundy or Maroney, but getting hyped about James Davis was about spending a 12th rounder or later on a super sleeper. I don't think the comparison holds, nor did drafting Davis really hurt anyone last year given his minimal cost.

 

It's all about the hyperbole my man... all about the hyperbole. People are creaming their pants over this guy, seriously. It's funny.

 

Valid point re: James Davis. And points for intelligently using the term fallacy

 

The Maroney sh*t was hilarious a few years ago. In his rookie season in 2006, he showed so much potential, so cats were all over his nuts coming into the 2007 season, calling him a top 5 RB and ludicrous crap like that. Needless to say those dummies got pwnd hard.

[neworleansff2003 0]

haha

 

houston sucks

[tecklc2112 7]

 

Talented runner... check.

Potent offense... check.

WR #1... check.

Quality QB to keep defenses honest... check.

Limited competition... check.

Played well in limited opportunity... check.

Someone tell me the difference between him and Ryan Matthews... honestly.

 

Exactly! The fact that Matthews is going in the 1st/early 2nd & Foster is going in the middle rounds is mind-boggling

[De Novo 0]

Typically, when EVERYONE is saying a guy is going to be great and signing his praises before he has ever done anything, they are wrong. This is hype and typical heard mentality. And the heard usually runs right off a cliff, only to get eaten by a bunch of hungry Indians!

 

Just saying.

 

I've never been someone to follow the herd. I drafted before the herd really formed, and I think there are a lot of people who would have liked to have him but didn't get the chance. Anyone who doesn't have him as a top 20 back is probably too risk averse to win in fantasy. He is the primary back on a high powered offense. Physically, he's a beast. He performed well late in the season last year.

[ElectricBoogaloo 1]

Lots of people miss the point. Maybe they are just hatin'. So here we have a guy with a golden road to touches in an offense that will put up 20-30 pts every week. One of his backups was cut from a barrel scraping team and his other backup has a toe injury and is a 3rd down/kickoff specialist. And so they call you out for saying he will put up numbers. They say he will fumble away the chance, or get injured. But you could say the same thing about the other top 20 backs in some way or another. You don't win you league taking the no brainers. You win your league by making the call on who will put up points and who you can get later in drafts. This guy is "that guy" for this yr and will make some people some money this yr. And I'm always sniffin the cash in my leagues...just sayin.

[Laurence Maroney's Nuts 2]

Lots of people miss the point. Maybe they are just hatin'...And I'm always sniffin the cash in my leagues...just sayin.

 

U r the champion of the world.

 

We bow to you mighty ffb god.

 

I got somethin you can sniff