MJD vs M.Turner vs Mendenhall?

[dreen626 17]

Who do u like more....MJD vs M.Turner vs Mendenhall?

 

Non-ppr scoring.

 

thanks

[tackle_football 0]

Who do u like more....MJD vs M.Turner vs Mendenhall?

 

Non-ppr scoring.

 

thanks

 

 

Mendy, Turner, MJD..IMO

 

Hearing MJDs knee is in bad shape so I am staying away completely from him this year.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Mendy is prob the only one I'd draft.

[bjsteel 34]

Mendy, Turner, MJD..IMO

 

Hearing MJDs knee is in bad shape so I am staying away completely from him this year.

 

Haven't heard many updates on MJD's knee, but he burned me last year, I'm staying away...Mendy then Turner would be my choices.

[IGotWorms 3,475]

Mendenhall for sure. I'd have to think about Turner vs. MJD. I am concerned about MJD's knee, but Turner is a slow, fat piece of crap. He'll probably still put up good stats because of the offense he's in, but one of these seasons a young'un is going to take his job away and that could just as well be this year.

[Portis26 0]

I think Turner will have better stats at years end. Falcons got better on offense whereas I don't think the Steelers have

[remote controller 138]

Mendenhall then two I wou't spend ADP value for.

[gocolts 300]

Considering where I would have to draft these guys, I can tell NONE will be on my roster this year unless they fall well past their ADP.

[c9h13no3 0]

Mendenhall, and the other two are on my "Do not draft" list.

[R8RMick 242]

Every year the off-season hate for the Burner just boggles the mind. Last year he disappointed down the stretch, but still finished with over 1300 yds and 12 TD's. He ws also a league leader in carries. I heard he just had off-season groin surgery, which may help explain some his lack of explosiveness in weeks 15-17.

 

What I'm keeping an eye on is what happens with Snelling, who was on the field constantly in passing situations. If he leaves maybe that opens up some third down opportunities for Turner?

 

Either way, dudes a hoss who's going to get the rock plenty in a top offense.

[Larry David 20]

Every year the off-season hate for the Burner just boggles the mind. Last year he disappointed down the stretch, but still finished with over 1300 yds and 12 TD's. He ws also a league leader in carries. I heard he just had off-season groin surgery, which may help explain some his lack of explosiveness in weeks 15-17.

 

What I'm keeping an eye on is what happens with Snelling, who was on the field constantly in passing situations. If he leaves maybe that opens up some third down opportunities for Turner?

 

Either way, dudes a hoss who's going to get the rock plenty in a top offense.

Couldn't agree more! I saw the title of this thread and I knew there was going to be plenty of Burner bashing. He's right around 30 years old so everyone wants to put him in a retirement home. What everyone forgets is that he was a barely used back-up for the first several years of his career. I expect another big year from him.

[el_duderino 0]

MJD is still a dynamic runner and pass catching option out of the backfield. He is on most peoples do not draft list. I am not one of them. He says his knee feels good. All of the conjecture out of what this OC said or this beat writer thinks is a bunch of crap. If he's healthy he'll be the lead back and produce.

 

Give me MJD/Mendenhall/Turner

[wild_and_crazy_guy 5]

Mendenhall would be my top choice because I would not draft Turner or MJD. I truely hope that Turner is recovered from his secret, off-season groin surgery. But I'll let someone else in my league roll that dice. MJD is ranked ridiculously high on Fantasy Football magazines because of his stats from a few years ago when he was healthier and on a better team.

[Larry David 20]

I truely hope that Turner is recovered from his secret, off-season groin surgery. But I'll let someone else in my league roll that dice.

Even with the groin injury he had 1,300 rushing yards and 12 TDs. What am I missing?

[c9h13no3 0]

Even with the groin injury he had 1,300 rushing yards and 12 TDs. What am I missing?

He averaged 4.1 ypc last year, required 334 carries to return value, and is now 29 which is about the age where RB's start dying. There's risk here, when it comes to 1st & 2nd round picks, I run at the first sight of risk.

[wild_and_crazy_guy 5]

Even with the groin injury he had 1,300 rushing yards and 12 TDs. What am I missing?

 

So are you asking why groin surgury should be of concern? Turner might be fine following his surgury...and I hope he is. But since I don't know if he is fully recovered, I'd rather not gamble my first round pick finding out.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Turners end of season stats are deceiving IMO. He put up about 400 yds and 7 tds in 3 games( against Carolina, sf and Tampa)

 

He rushed for less than 85 yards in 7 starts and didn't have a td in any of those. Not what I'm looking for in a first round pick.

[Kent 228]

MJD is still a dynamic runner and pass catching option out of the backfield. He is on most peoples do not draft list. I am not one of them. He says his knee feels good. All of the conjecture out of what this OC said or this beat writer thinks is a bunch of crap. If he's healthy he'll be the lead back and produce.

 

Give me MJD/Mendenhall/Turner

 

But the Jags offense is putrid.

 

Mendy

Turner

MJD

[Fantasy Noob 10]

Mendenhall, MJD, Turner

 

Mendenhall is the least risk, and situation, team, youth all seem to favor him. I have picked him in the early 2nd every chance I can get. I have actually seen him creep into the late first round and am ok with it.

MJD I think is worth the risk, the upside is just too large to ignore in the late 1st early 2nd. Early 1st there are equivalent backs with less risk associated, but I am buying on him.

Turner has only had single target receptions most of his career, last year it jumped up to 12. I think it's safe to say he has hands of stone and his speed game seems to have evaporated. Late 2nd rounder at best and I don't want him till the third.

 

I play mostly ppr but even in leagues without it this is an under rated component of RB's games. They get the ball in space, one on one instead of running through the 2 lines. Those opportunities are extremely valuable and give the RB a big advantage (usually).

[The Moz 69]

in non PPR I like Turner if I knew he would play at least 14 games healthy.

 

Mendy is solid and the safest of the 3

 

MJD - has the most upside of the 3 if he is 100% especially in PPR

 

that said I wouldn't draft any of the 3 in round 1

[R8RMick 242]

He averaged 4.1 ypc last year, required 334 carries to return value, and is now 29 which is about the age where RB's start dying. There's risk here, when it comes to 1st & 2nd round picks, I run at the first sight of risk.

 

 

You can use a lot of arguments against the Burner, surely, but this isn't one of them. He didn't top 80 carries in any of his first four seasons in the NFL with SD. He's a tough back to, I'm not sure where this injury rap comes from. His problem two years ago with the ankle injury was he couldn't keep his own mouth shut. Smith rushed him back from a high ankle sprain too quickly and it did him in the rest of the way. Up until that point, where a Carolina DB rolled up on him from behind, he was tearing the NFL a new one.

 

If the guy says his groin was bothering him last season, which did cause him to fade down the stretch, then maybe there's something to it. But at 29 it's not like he's been averaging 300 plus carries for the last seven seasons. If Snelling leaves, I'll bet that reception total goes up by at least 25-30.

[c9h13no3 0]

You can use a lot of arguments against the Burner, surely, but this isn't one of them. He didn't top 80 carries in any of his first four seasons in the NFL with SD.

I fail to see how this has anything to do with his age... I know quite a few 70 year olds who haven't had a single NFL carry, and they're not in the shape they were when they were 20. Your body ages whether you tote the rock or not.

[Gladiators 1,914]

I fail to see how this has anything to do with his age... I know quite a few 70 year olds who haven't had a single NFL carry, and they're not in the shape they were when they were 20. Your body ages whether you tote the rock or not.

 

Well his point is that a 29 year old Turner isn't the same as a 29 year old back that's been carrying the ball 250+ times per season since his rookie year. Surely you would agree that a 29 year old back that has taken 1,500 hits on the field is more likely to have less tread on the tires than a guy who has taken 900...I haven't checked the numbers he provided, but I do know he was sitting behind LT for a few years.

 

I know for offensive lineman there can be a big quality of life difference between a guy who played 5 years and a guy who played 10+. It's due to the wear and tear of all those seasons.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

I think Turner will have better stats at years end. Falcons got better on offense whereas I don't think the Steelers have

 

 

Falcons got better on offense? They added Julio Jones which in all likely hood points to a more aerial attack meaning less touches for turner. Steelers get back big willie colon who missed all of last season. On another note, i just had an appendectomy, and groin surgery sounds pretty gross

 

I'd say Mendy is in a different tier than these other 2, with MJD slightly ahead of turner, but just slightly.

[c9h13no3 0]

Well his point is that a 29 year old Turner isn't the same as a 29 year old back that's been carrying the ball 250+ times per season since his rookie year. Surely you would agree that a 29 year old back that has taken 1,500 hits on the field is more likely to have less tread on the tires than a guy who has taken 900...I haven't checked the numbers he provided, but I do know he was sitting behind LT for a few years.

Yes, carries play a part, but so does age. Just because player doesn't have one risk factor doesn't mean the others don't matter. You may not have high cholesterol, but if you're having chest pains & pain in your left arm, you should still probably go see if you're having a heart attack.

 

And honestly, it doesn't matter to me. Its a 1st-2nd round pick, and Turner fits the mold of a early round bust. The combination of age plus declining yards per carry is NOT GOOD. When a player declines at this age, they generally do not come back. And even if he doesn't bust, what's the reward? He still scores the same number of points as most of the other guys in that round. You're not going to win your league by selecting Turner, so why risk losing it?

 

I don't care if he's a little risky or a lot. Compared to the other group of running backs, he carries way more risk than other early rounders. You can't win the league in round 1, you can only lose it. Avoid risk at all costs in rounds 1-3.

[Gladiators 1,914]

Yes, carries play a part, but so does age. Just because player doesn't have one risk factor doesn't mean the others don't matter. You may not have high cholesterol, but if you're having chest pains & pain in your left arm, you should still probably go see if you're having a heart attack.

 

And honestly, it doesn't matter to me. Its a 1st-2nd round pick, and Turner fits the mold of a early round bust. The combination of age plus declining yards per carry is NOT GOOD. When a player declines at this age, they generally do not come back. And even if he doesn't bust, what's the reward? He still scores the same number of points as most of the other guys in that round. You're not going to win your league by selecting Turner, so why risk losing it?

 

I don't care if he's a little risky or a lot. Compared to the other group of running backs, he carries way more risk than other early rounders. You can't win the league in round 1, you can only lose it. Avoid risk at all costs in rounds 1-3.

 

I'm certainly not advocating to take Turner. It just appeared that you didn't understand the point of his post, so I was trying to help. I could point out risks for nearly every 1st round running back. Some are young and not really proven, some are competing for carries (around the goal line particularly), some have poor offenses, some appear to be an injury risk. If rounds 1-3 are all about risk avoidance, you're probably best off drafting a QB and a couple of wideouts.

[c9h13no3 0]

If rounds 1-3 are all about risk avoidance, you're probably best off drafting a QB and a couple of wideouts.

Not true.

 

And whining that all RB's have risk is kinda stupid. Insurance companies have been figuring out how risky things are since like 1800 pretty accurately. Surely we can figure out which running backs are more risky than others?

 

The big risk factors I look at in early round picks are:

 

-How old are they?

-How many carries do they have?

-Is their production largely supported by touchdowns or long runs (which vary quite a lot year to year)?

-How much improvement from last year is factored into their price (assuming a RB improves too much kills you. See Sean Greene 2010).

-Coaching changes?

-Recent (training camp and early offseason) surgeries or injuries?

-Declining production?

 

I'm not sure if they're the most accurate ways to measure risk among running backs, but it certainly seems like a decent set of criteria and age is certainly the biggest one.

[Gladiators 1,914]

Not true.

 

And whining that all RB's have risk is kinda stupid. Insurance companies have been figuring out how risky things are since like 1800 pretty accurately. Surely we can figure out which running backs are more risky than others?

 

The big risk factors I look at in early round picks are:

 

-How old are they?

-How many carries do they have?

-Is their production largely supported by touchdowns or long runs (which vary quite a lot year to year)?

-How much improvement from last year is factored into their price (assuming a RB improves too much kills you. See Sean Greene 2010).

-Coaching changes?

-Recent (training camp and early offseason) surgeries or injuries?

-Declining production?

 

I'm not sure if they're the most accurate ways to measure risk among running backs, but it certainly seems like a decent set of criteria and age is certainly the biggest one.

 

Would you mind giving us the formula for how all of these factors net out to who is how risky? I'm curious how all are weighted. This may be a great writeup if you have all of the information and can provide some historical analysis of your process/results.

 

I'm not whining about how all RB's have risk. My point was that although Turner has risk, so do nearly all of the other RB's. And your drafting theory or rankings seem to be based on risk. You said that rounds 1-3 are all about risk avoidance and most would agree that QB's and WR's are less risky than RB's due to the turnover among RB's year after year. I was under the impression that if it's all abour risk avoidance, then you'd probably shy away from taking a RB unelss you have one of the first few picks and can grab a guy with minimal risk. Maybe I'm not following how you perceive risk though. If you can provide info on how you rank your guys based on risk (using your different factors in your post), it might help me understand.

 

The way I'm understanding it, you would be able to grab a couple of top wideouts with much less risk than the available RB's (depending on where you're drafting), thereby reducing your risk. I know it can work, as long as you grab RB's with high upside and 1 or 2 work out. I'm also curious about this because I'm drafting at the end in all of my money leagues and don't have the option to grab one of the 2 or 3 "less risky" RB's (at least as I see them - AP, CJ, RR).

[c9h13no3 0]

I've posted this link 4 times on this forum. Lets make it a 5th. The article below takes data from the past 10 years on how predictable fantasy performance is at each position.

 

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/04/fantasy-drafting-how-to-maximize-value-by-position-and-by-round/

 

Key quotes from this are:

Running backs have a higher R-Squared than wide receivers, despite the fact that some view wide receivers as more stable from year to year. The truth is, both positions are pretty stable, but running backs are more consistent because of the sheer volume of touches they accumulate. A wide receiver’s production is dependent on many things outside his control, and it’s not unusual to see a wide receiver go from boom to bust, and vice versa.

And another quote...

 

Quarterbacks tend to be much less consistent (and therefore harder to predict) than running backs, wide receivers and tight ends....Quarterback scoring is wildly variable based on strength of schedule from year to year, number of pass attempts per game, injuries and frequency of red zone passes, and that’s on top of the usual suspects like talent, luck and supporting cast.

Now this quote is sorta misleading, because its talking about the quarterback picture as a whole. The top 2-4 QB's tend to be pretty easy to predict (Michael Vick notwithstanding), but the bottom 8 are terribly hard to predict.

 

But on top of that, QB's carry the other risk in that you're immediately going to weaken your team by about ~30-40 points above replacement. So while when I draft in the first few rounds I do try to avoid risk, I don't think its worth hurting your team by 40 points over a season to do so.

 

So no, if you're just trying to avoid risk, you don't just draft QB's and WR's. I do think WR's get drafted too little at the top of the draft, but I'm not avoiding RB's.

 

Would you mind giving us the formula for how all of these factors net out to who is how risky? I'm curious how all are weighted. This may be a great writeup if you have all of the information and can provide some historical analysis of your process/results.

 

I had grand plans on actually doing some legit math and figuring out how those risk factors work. But honestly a lot of the conclusions are pretty obvious. Below, I've listed the major busts of the past 4 years that did not occur due to major injury.

 

2010

Ryan Mathews - Tolbert ate into workload, high ankle sprain

Shonn Greene - Tomlinson ate into workload

Beanie Wells - Knee injuries, Hightower didn't go away

Jonathan Stewart - Terrible offense, O-line injuries

 

2009

Steve Slaton - Fumbles

Brandon Jacobs - Nagging knee injuries

Brian Westbrook - Age 30

Clinton Portis - Age 28, tons of carries

Darren McFadden - Torn MCL &fumbles limited playing time

Marshawn Lynch - FJax took his job while he was suspended, new coaching regime

Larry Johnson - Age 30

 

2008

Joseph Addai - Various Injuries if I remember right.

Jamal Lewis - Age 29

Willis McGahee - Nagging injuries

Edgerrin James - Age 30

 

2007

Shaun Alexander - Age 30

Rudi Johnson - Age 28

Travis Henry - Age 28

Cedric Benson - Ankle injuries, didn't improve enough when Thomas Jones left.

 

From there, you can pretty much see two categories of guys. The first one is running backs who are age 28 or older. There's a lot of them on this list.

 

The second category is young, unproven players that were supposed to get a ton of opportunity, but they didn't. Shonn Greene is a perfect example of this, where we all assumed that LT was going to be an after thought.

 

So if you look at the RB's available today, the guys I'm not ever drafting are:

 

Steven Jackson: Old, lots of carries.

Frank Gore: Old, lots of carries.

Michael Turner: Age 29

Shonn Greene: Once again, his ADP assumes that Tomlinson dissapears and McKnight & Powell get little playing time.

Legarrete Blount: His ADP is just expecting a ton of improvement, when he already had 200 carries last year.

Maybe MJD: He's coming off a major knee injury. But if his knee is fine, he doesn't really have any of the other big risk factors. He's young (26), same coaches as last year, and he's proven.

 

Idk, this is kinda getting off topic, so maybe this needs a new thread or we should just take it to PM's. But I'm cool with the rest of the RB's in this year's class.

[Herbivore 920]

Falcons got better on offense? They added Julio Jones which in all likely hood points to a more aerial attack meaning less touches for turner. Steelers get back big willie colon who missed all of last season. On another note, i just had an appendectomy, and groin surgery sounds pretty gross

 

I'd say Mendy is in a different tier than these other 2, with MJD slightly ahead of turner, but just slightly.

 

Every year people on this site like to pump up a rookie Wr, and every year they do very little of any value.

 

MJD - reports on the knee sound ok, had 200 more total yds than mendy, but 8 less tds last year, I think that levels out a bit.

Turner - I think he ends up very close to last years total numbers.

Mendy - 2nd in tds for rbs last year, don't think that happens again. looking at his game logs, he seemed to run a lot more when Rapist was out.

[Kent 228]

I've posted this link 4 times on this forum. Lets make it a 5th. The article below takes data from the past 10 years on how predictable fantasy performance is at each position.

 

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/04/fantasy-drafting-how-to-maximize-value-by-position-and-by-round/

 

Key quotes from this are:

 

And another quote...

 

Now this quote is sorta misleading, because its talking about the quarterback picture as a whole. The top 2-4 QB's tend to be pretty easy to predict (Michael Vick notwithstanding), but the bottom 8 are terribly hard to predict.

 

But on top of that, QB's carry the other risk in that you're immediately going to weaken your team by about ~30-40 points above replacement. So while when I draft in the first few rounds I do try to avoid risk, I don't think its worth hurting your team by 40 points over a season to do so.

 

So no, if you're just trying to avoid risk, you don't just draft QB's and WR's. I do think WR's get drafted too little at the top of the draft, but I'm not avoiding RB's.

 

 

 

I had grand plans on actually doing some legit math and figuring out how those risk factors work. But honestly a lot of the conclusions are pretty obvious. Below, I've listed the major busts of the past 4 years that did not occur due to major injury.

 

2010

Ryan Mathews - Tolbert ate into workload, high ankle sprain

Shonn Greene - Tomlinson ate into workload

Beanie Wells - Knee injuries, Hightower didn't go away

Jonathan Stewart - Terrible offense, O-line injuries

 

2009

Steve Slaton - Fumbles

Brandon Jacobs - Nagging knee injuries

Brian Westbrook - Age 30

Clinton Portis - Age 28, tons of carries

Darren McFadden - Torn MCL &fumbles limited playing time

Marshawn Lynch - FJax took his job while he was suspended, new coaching regime

Larry Johnson - Age 30

 

2008

Joseph Addai - Various Injuries if I remember right.

Jamal Lewis - Age 29

Willis McGahee - Nagging injuries

Edgerrin James - Age 30

 

2007

Shaun Alexander - Age 30

Rudi Johnson - Age 28

Travis Henry - Age 28

Cedric Benson - Ankle injuries, didn't improve enough when Thomas Jones left.

 

From there, you can pretty much see two categories of guys. The first one is running backs who are age 28 or older. There's a lot of them on this list.

 

The second category is young, unproven players that were supposed to get a ton of opportunity, but they didn't. Shonn Greene is a perfect example of this, where we all assumed that LT was going to be an after thought.

 

So if you look at the RB's available today, the guys I'm not ever drafting are:

 

Steven Jackson: Old, lots of carries.

Frank Gore: Old, lots of carries.

Michael Turner: Age 29

Shonn Greene: Once again, his ADP assumes that Tomlinson dissapears and McKnight & Powell get little playing time.

Legarrete Blount: His ADP is just expecting a ton of improvement, when he already had 200 carries last year.

Maybe MJD: He's coming off a major knee injury. But if his knee is fine, he doesn't really have any of the other big risk factors. He's young (26), same coaches as last year, and he's proven.

 

Idk, this is kinda getting off topic, so maybe this needs a new thread or we should just take it to PM's. But I'm cool with the rest of the RB's in this year's class.

 

You had me until Blount and MJD. Blount is really young and doesn't have a lot of carries. His ADP may be a little inflated but he's in a good spot to succeed.

MJD is coming off a major injury and they have a mediocre offense that may start a rookie with no WR threats. Expect 9 in the box all year for MJD. Maybe 10 in the box. Maybe all 11.

[R8RMick 242]

I fail to see how this has anything to do with his age... I know quite a few 70 year olds who haven't had a single NFL carry, and they're not in the shape they were when they were 20. Your body ages whether you tote the rock or not.

 

 

Respectfully, there's a difference between aging and getting the ever loving sh*t blasted out of you. Just ask earl Campbell. Or LT...

[R8RMick 242]

I've posted this link 4 times on this forum. Lets make it a 5th. The article below takes data from the past 10 years on how predictable fantasy performance is at each position.

 

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/04/fantasy-drafting-how-to-maximize-value-by-position-and-by-round/

 

Key quotes from this are:

 

And another quote...

 

Now this quote is sorta misleading, because its talking about the quarterback picture as a whole. The top 2-4 QB's tend to be pretty easy to predict (Michael Vick notwithstanding), but the bottom 8 are terribly hard to predict.

 

But on top of that, QB's carry the other risk in that you're immediately going to weaken your team by about ~30-40 points above replacement. So while when I draft in the first few rounds I do try to avoid risk, I don't think its worth hurting your team by 40 points over a season to do so.

 

So no, if you're just trying to avoid risk, you don't just draft QB's and WR's. I do think WR's get drafted too little at the top of the draft, but I'm not avoiding RB's.

 

 

 

I had grand plans on actually doing some legit math and figuring out how those risk factors work. But honestly a lot of the conclusions are pretty obvious. Below, I've listed the major busts of the past 4 years that did not occur due to major injury.

 

2010

Ryan Mathews - Tolbert ate into workload, high ankle sprain

Shonn Greene - Tomlinson ate into workload

Beanie Wells - Knee injuries, Hightower didn't go away

Jonathan Stewart - Terrible offense, O-line injuries

 

2009

Steve Slaton - Fumbles

Brandon Jacobs - Nagging knee injuries

Brian Westbrook - Age 30

Clinton Portis - Age 28, tons of carries

Darren McFadden - Torn MCL &fumbles limited playing time

Marshawn Lynch - FJax took his job while he was suspended, new coaching regime

Larry Johnson - Age 30

 

2008

Joseph Addai - Various Injuries if I remember right.

Jamal Lewis - Age 29

Willis McGahee - Nagging injuries

Edgerrin James - Age 30

 

2007

Shaun Alexander - Age 30

Rudi Johnson - Age 28

Travis Henry - Age 28

Cedric Benson - Ankle injuries, didn't improve enough when Thomas Jones left.

 

From there, you can pretty much see two categories of guys. The first one is running backs who are age 28 or older. There's a lot of them on this list.

 

The second category is young, unproven players that were supposed to get a ton of opportunity, but they didn't. Shonn Greene is a perfect example of this, where we all assumed that LT was going to be an after thought.

 

So if you look at the RB's available today, the guys I'm not ever drafting are:

 

Steven Jackson: Old, lots of carries.

Frank Gore: Old, lots of carries.

Michael Turner: Age 29

Shonn Greene: Once again, his ADP assumes that Tomlinson dissapears and McKnight & Powell get little playing time.

Legarrete Blount: His ADP is just expecting a ton of improvement, when he already had 200 carries last year.

Maybe MJD: He's coming off a major knee injury. But if his knee is fine, he doesn't really have any of the other big risk factors. He's young (26), same coaches as last year, and he's proven.

 

Idk, this is kinda getting off topic, so maybe this needs a new thread or we should just take it to PM's. But I'm cool with the rest of the RB's in this year's class.

 

 

You've got some real brainiac-type stuff here. I mean, truly fascinating. But really, sometimes you just gotta take a risk to grab that cheese. Take Turner... You look at him as a 29 year-old over the hill has been. I mean, I SAW your list... But I see him as a very young 29 year old RB, who's gonna tote the rock a ton this year for a top NFC team. He'll get all the early stuff, all the goal line carries, and possibly a greater role in the recieving game if Snelling signs elsewhere.

 

Did he slow down some last year down the stretch? Sure, but I'm taking the guys word that he wasn't right. He's not a malingerer by any means. In fact, he rushed himself back too quickly two years ago off the high ankle sprain. BTW, he was tearing the league a new one up until that guy rolled up on him.

 

I probably should clarify, Turner is not my #1 guy. I've got Arian Foster as my number one, and Turner is my RB2. I'm in a keeper league and drafted him his last year in SD. Most definitely he needs to be considered a one-dimensional back. But again, what IF Snelling signs elsewhere?

 

The bottom line is, one man's trash and all that... You see him as Jamal Lewis, where I still see him as a viable threat. Sometimes you gotta throw the data out with the bathwater and just take a shot.

[c9h13no3 0]

You had me until Blount and MJD. Blount is really young and doesn't have a lot of carries. His ADP may be a little inflated but he's in a good spot to succeed.

MJD is coming off a major injury and they have a mediocre offense that may start a rookie with no WR threats. Expect 9 in the box all year for MJD. Maybe 10 in the box. Maybe all 11.

A) On Blount, people are selecting him at RB15. Last year he carried the ball 200 times, and finished as RB27. You're expecting him to leap up the rankings 12 spots. Sure, he's likely to achieve that. But there's a lot of risk there assuming that big of a jump in 2010. If he doesn't make the leap, he's Shonn Greene 2011.

 

MJD hasn't been on any of my mock draft teams yet, so I'm not a huge fan or anything. But last year he finished as the #12 RB while playing on an injured knee. And there were 9-10-11 players in the box last year, since the passing game was just as terrible. Their offense has always been mediocre. If his knee truly is healthy, I might pull him off my DND list. He's currently being drafted as RB8. If his knee truly is healthy, and he reached RB12 status last year hurt, he seems like a decent investment. But I agree, if I see any signs in the preseason of knee issues (sitting out practices, ect.), he's back to untouchable status.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

Every year people on this site like to pump up a rookie Wr, and every year they do very little of any value.

 

MJD - reports on the knee sound ok, had 200 more total yds than mendy, but 8 less tds last year, I think that levels out a bit.

Turner - I think he ends up very close to last years total numbers.

Mendy - 2nd in tds for rbs last year, don't think that happens again. looking at his game logs, he seemed to run a lot more when Rapist was out.

 

First of all, nobody is pumping up a rookie receiver if you would have actually read my comment. I'm just pointing to the fact that atlanta wants to throw the ball more, meaning less touches for turner no doubt.

 

Secondly, MJD had 8 TOTAL TDS LESS THAN MENDY last year but you THINK its going to level out. So i ask you this, even if somehow it does level out, wouldn't you prefer the younger guy with no history of knee injuries?

 

Thirdly, may i play in your league?

[R8RMick 242]

First of all, nobody is pumping up a rookie receiver if you would have actually read my comment. I'm just pointing to the fact that atlanta wants to throw the ball more, meaning less touches for turner no doubt.

 

Secondly, MJD had 8 TOTAL TDS LESS THAN MENDY last year but you THINK its going to level out. So i ask you this, even if somehow it does level out, wouldn't you prefer the younger guy with no history of knee injuries?

 

Thirdly, may i play in your league?

 

 

They may throw the ball more, but they also may get down in the red zone and to the goal line quicker and more often.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Good info on blount. Bc tampas has a tougher scheule and blount doesnt catch the ball i think there is risk at his adp. Hes one of the last rbs i like but im debating whether id rather take a more sure thing receiver or even qb and try to find next years Blount later in the draft. He was mostly a matchup play last year with his huge games coming against Arizona, Detroit, Seattle, Carolina and Atlanta. He can disappear if they get down early. Great playoff schedule though.

 

name='c9h13no3' date='02 August 2011 - 12:07 PM' timestamp='1312308319' post='4522685']

A) On Blount, people are selecting him at RB15. Last year he carried the ball 200 times, and finished as RB27. You're expecting him to leap up the rankings 12 spots. Sure, he's likely to achieve that. But there's a lot of risk there assuming that big of a jump in 2010. If he doesn't make the leap, he's Shonn Greene 2011.

 

MJD hasn't been on any of my mock draft teams yet, so I'm not a huge fan or anything. But last year he finished as the #12 RB while playing on an injured knee. And there were 9-10-11 players in the box last year, since the passing game was just as terrible. Their offense has always been mediocre. If his knee truly is healthy, I might pull him off my DND list. He's currently being drafted as RB8. If his knee truly is healthy, and he reached RB12 status last year hurt, he seems like a decent investment. But I agree, if I see any signs in the preseason of knee issues (sitting out practices, ect.), he's back to untouchable status.

[Herbivore 920]

First of all, nobody is pumping up a rookie receiver if you would have actually read my comment. I'm just pointing to the fact that atlanta wants to throw the ball more, meaning less touches for turner no doubt.

 

Secondly, MJD had 8 TOTAL TDS LESS THAN MENDY last year but you THINK its going to level out. So i ask you this, even if somehow it does level out, wouldn't you prefer the younger guy with no history of knee injuries?

Thirdly, may i play in your league?

 

Not if he had 200 less yards on the year. And Ryan had the 6th most attempts in the league last year, only considerably behind Peyton and Brees, but sure its a FACT that Atlanta is going to throw so much more that NO DOUBT Turner gets less touches.

 

And...did you look at Mendy's carries before and after the Rapist's suspension? If you did it might seem like his numbers were affected.

 

Good luck with the appendectomy recovery.

[LoOnAtIk 75]

Not if he had 200 less yards on the year. And Ryan had the 6th most attempts in the league last year, only considerably behind Peyton and Brees, but sure its a FACT that Atlanta is going to throw so much more that NO DOUBT Turner gets less touches.

 

Good luck with the appendectomy recovery.

 

just sounds like you're hating on mendy for no reason. Can you put into words why you think an 8 touchdown difference is going to level out this year. Mendy had less than 15 carries in a game only twice last year, 27 carries in roethlisbergers first game back and a season-high 36 in week 12. The O-line was destroyed with injuries but kemoeatu, willie colon, and maurkice pouncey should all be back healthy. Good luck with your team this season

[Herbivore 920]

just sounds like you're hating on mendy for no reason. Can you put into words why you think an 8 touchdown difference is going to level out this year. Mendy had less than 15 carries in a game only twice last year, 27 carries in roethlisbergers first game back and a season-high 36 in week 12. The O-line was destroyed with injuries but kemoeatu, willie colon, and maurkice pouncey should all be back healthy. Good luck with your team this season

 

Not really hating on Mendy, more giving MJD and the Burner some respect. In the 4 games Mendy had without Ben, over 20 carries 3 times and 19 carries in the other, in the 12 reg season games with Ben, he went over 20 4 times. Ben's lowest attempts in games in 2010, week 5 his first week back. Pittsburgh hasn't been the run it down your throat offense since Bettis left. Last year was the first in awhile where they were in the top ten in rushing tds, is that because Mendy was so good, or the Rapist was out? You are probably right about the Oline for the Steelers.

 

Specifically about the TD difference, MJD had 299 carries last season and 5 tds, the previous season he had 312 carries and 15tds. So same amount of carries, and yds as well, but 10 less tds. He has had 15, 9, 14, 16, and 7 total tds in each season. So MJD had the worst total of his career, and Mendy had the 2nd highest total among rbs. I think MJD comes closer to his career average, and Mendy comes back to the Steelers recent rushing trends under Ben.