Will you take McFadden in the 3rd?

[Djgb13 2,338]

who's expecting different results?

 

2012: 14.84 ppg

2011: 19.73 ppg

2010: 22.52 ppg

 

i'm expecting the same results he's provided in the past in a power blocking scheme... 19-20ppg, missing 4 games.

 

so are you just trying to say you are the one insane expecting something different, something less?

What if the games he misses isn't the playoffs but actual games that could determine whether u go to the playoffs or not? Look I'm just not sold on the guy and if there better options available in the third round I would easily take them over McFadden

[Serpent 51]

if you have the stomach to change you statement to "McFadden can produce WHEN he is healthy" and draft him knowing that it's not a matter of IF,

 

i figure if i can get 9 regular season games from McFadden, those should give me 9 games that i should win due to his 20ppg scoring. if i can squeeze out 1 win out of the 4 games he misses, than i am in the playoffs. what hurts is when he misses playoff games... but if you can get into the playoffs, that's the first battle. ANYTHING can happen from there... so draft him expecting 8-9 regular season games of 20ppg, and then hope he can be around for the playoffs...

i'd rather do that than draft the next tier RB and 'count on' 14-15ppg which may not help me win as many games...

 

 

just my $0.02

 

That's funny because if McFadden has a 20ppg scoring average, AP must score 50 pts a game. Ryan Mathews probably gets 20 in your scoring system too, just go draft him. Better yet draft the both of them. That's 40 PPG!!! YOU CAN'T LOSE!

 

Edit: Okay, I will go the extra yard (heh, something McFadden doesn't do) and list his career totals and averages!

 

The guy has played in 57 games and started 44. 5 years in the league.

 

3334 total rushing yards, 1449 total receiving yards, for a total of 4783 yfs.

 

That averages out to 58.5 yards rushing a game, a 4.3 ypc, 25.4 yards receiving. He has 18 rushing TDs and 5 reception TDs, a total of 23 TDs in his career, or about half a TD a game. He also has 15 fumbles, so about a third of a fumble a game. What does that average out to a game, 10-12 pts?

 

So you want to take away his worst year? Fine I guess, but which one? He has 3 bad ones. If we just count his best 2 "years" his stats are indeed better. That would put him at 20 games total, 1771 yards rush, 661 receiving, 15TDs 5 fumbles. that's about 90 yards rushing, 33 yards receiving, and roughly .75 TD and .25 fumbles, so even at his best, the average is still below 20 in standard leagues (non-PPR).

[We Tigers 71]

 

That's funny because if McFadden has a 20ppg scoring average, AP must score 50 pts a game. Ryan Mathews probably gets 20 in your scoring system too, just go draft him. Better yet draft the both of them. That's 40 PPG!!! YOU CAN'T LOSE!

 

Edit: Okay, I will go the extra yard (heh, something McFadden doesn't do) and list his career totals and averages!

 

The guy has played in 57 games and started 44. 5 years in the league.

 

3334 total rushing yards, 1449 total receiving yards, for a total of 4783 yfs.

 

That averages out to 58.5 yards rushing a game, a 4.3 ypc, 25.4 yards receiving. He has 18 rushing TDs and 5 reception TDs, a total of 23 TDs in his career, or about half a TD a game. He also has 15 fumbles, so about a third of a fumble a game. What does that average out to a game, 10-12 pts?

 

So you want to take away his worst year? Fine I guess, but which one? He has 3 bad ones. If we just count his best 2 "years" his stats are indeed better. That would put him at 20 games total, 1771 yards rush, 661 receiving, 15TDs 5 fumbles. that's about 90 yards rushing, 33 yards receiving, and roughly .75 TD and .25 fumbles, so even at his best, the average is still below 20 in standard leagues (non-PPR).

The comparison should fairly obviously be to 2010 and 2011, his two great years as the true lead RB in a power-running system. Do you include Ray Rice's first year in his average stats, too?

 

McFadden has shown that he has the upside to be a top-3 RB in PPG; he was that in 2010 and 2011 before his season ended with the foot injury. Whether the scheme and team are strong enough to support those kind of numbers remains to be seen.

[famousb 11]

The comparison should fairly obviously be to 2010 and 2011, his two great years as the true lead RB in a power-running system. Do you include Ray Rice's first year in his average stats, too?

 

McFadden has shown that he has the upside to be a top-3 RB in PPG; he was that in 2010 and 2011 before his season ended with the foot injury. Whether the scheme and team are strong enough to support those kind of numbers remains to be seen.

don't feed the wildlife, or they just keep coming back wanting more...

[famousb 11]

What if the games he misses isn't the playoffs but actual games that could determine whether u go to the playoffs or not? Look I'm just not sold on the guy and if there better options available in the third round I would easily take them over McFadden

i covered you question in a previous post. please go back, read, and then think if you want to respond.

[BobSanders_33 127]

who's expecting different results?

 

2012: 14.84 ppg

2011: 19.73 ppg

2010: 22.52 ppg

 

i'm expecting the same results he's provided in the past in a power blocking scheme... 19-20ppg, missing 4 games.

 

so are you just trying to say you are the one insane expecting something different, something less?

 

 

Add in his 2013 ppg stats (I know not power blocking) and you will see a clear trend

[famousb 11]

 

Add in his 2013 ppg stats (I know not power blocking) and you will see a clear trend

 

umm.. can you please post his 2013 stats PLEASE since you seem to know them already???????

[famousb 11]

 

umm.. can you please post his 2013 stats PLEASE since you seem to know them already??????? ....though they would be in a power blocking scheme...

[CallMeBigCat 1]

For me its really tough to see myself taking Mcfadden in the 3rd round. I used my 2nd round pick on him last year because I thought michael bush leaving would leave him getting more touchdowns and yardage but he ended up being a huge disappointment for me. He has just left a sour taste in my mouth from last year. But despite that I do think the fact he is in a contract year, has a revamped offensive system supposedly suited for him, and the raiders will need to be reliant upon him even more this season(due to the loss of palmer and insertion of flynn), I'm inclined to think he could have a top 15 year. But I am going to stay away from him because its just to much speculation for me to want to take a risk on him again. I dont want to be burned two years in a row by the same guy.

[dave32 14]

It's really simple- yes, you take him in the 3rd round, but only if you've also drafted running backs with your first two picks. Do some mock drafts, you'll be surprised how many WRs are still gonna be there in the 4-8 rounds. Obviously the draft is deep with QB, so you don't have to worry about that either. Like others have pointed out, it's a contract year-his last chance for a huge payday. They aren't doing the zone blocking anymore. All of this points to a huge season for McFadden, but I'd still only take him as a 3rd round pick if he's your 3rd RB.

[Serpent 51]

The comparison should fairly obviously be to 2010 and 2011, his two great years as the true lead RB in a power-running system. Do you include Ray Rice's first year in his average stats, too?

 

McFadden has shown that he has the upside to be a top-3 RB in PPG; he was that in 2010 and 2011 before his season ended with the foot injury. Whether the scheme and team are strong enough to support those kind of numbers remains to be seen.

 

DERP DERP DERP, I even went and did that for you, but you still won't admit it. It was the final two sentences of my post, the stats nicely broken down with only his best 2 "years" which amounted to 20 games. Since he only played 20 games those 2 years.

 

Show me those mystical PPG stats and the other players. So far the only person that put any stats up is me, and rather than working with those stats you people have chosen to ignore them and pretend they are much better than they were.

[We Tigers 71]

I'm not the guy who said anything about 20 PPG. You can go check his PPG right here on FF today without breaking a sweat. Regardless, 120 yards and .75 TDs a game is pretty monstrous.

[Djgb13 2,338]

It's really simple- yes, you take him in the 3rd round, but only if you've also drafted running backs with your first two picks. Do some mock drafts, you'll be surprised how many WRs are still gonna be there in the 4-8 rounds. Obviously the draft is deep with QB, so you don't have to worry about that either. Like others have pointed out, it's a contract year-his last chance for a huge payday. They aren't doing the zone blocking anymore. All of this points to a huge season for McFadden, but I'd still only take him as a 3rd round pick if he's your 3rd RB.

 

There are plenty of GOOD Wrs and Qbs available in those rounds. However, when it comes to the amount of talent that remains in the 3rd round I would still choose a lot of people of McFadden. I know hes in a contract year, years ago he was top 10 blah blah. Those arguments could be said for Vick, Sydney Rice, and many more players I dont feel like naming right now. But like someone else pointed out noone is going to be scared of Oaklands passing game and their line doesnt look that well either. Could have just been that first game so Ill save further judgement until I see more preseason games but from the bit I saw I didnt like it. Ill catch the Giants/Steelers game tonight to see how David Wilson and Bell play cause they will be available in 3rd round as well so I might be picking them instead of McFadden.

[IGotWorms 3,317]

The comparison should fairly obviously be to 2010 and 2011, his two great years as the true lead RB in a power-running system. Do you include Ray Rice's first year in his average stats, too?

 

McFadden has shown that he has the upside to be a top-3 RB in PPG; he was that in 2010 and 2011 before his season ended with the foot injury. Whether the scheme and team are strong enough to support those kind of numbers remains to be seen.

 

Other things that were true in 2011:

 

The US is never going to get bin Laden

Casey Anthony is definitely going to prison for killing her daughter

Mitt Romney may be a viable presidential candidate

[Serpent 51]

I'm not the guy who said anything about 20 PPG. You can go check his PPG right here on FF today without breaking a sweat. Regardless, 120 yards and .75 TDs a game is pretty monstrous.

 

No, you're just the guy that asked for something that was already in my post, showing you didn't even bother to read it.

 

I looked up McFadden's PPG for those two years. They are 17.4 and 15.3.

 

But thank you for directing me towards FFT to look up those stats, I usually use pro-football-reference or whatever site I'm using for fantasy. I should really look more to the tools we have on here too for those stats however. I mostly just use the SOS chart when that is up, and not much else off here. Discussing things with my fellow FF players on these boards is also something I use too (and enjoy for fun).

 

Regardless, McFadden is no "lock" to repeat his career years. Caveat Emptor imo.

[We Tigers 71]

I actually agree with you, and will probably be passing on him. Lamar Miller, Demarco Murray, and Leveon Bell are better bets for big numbers this year.

[5Year1 23]

Not taking any risk??????? After all of his injuries and then 3 something YPC last year when he was not hurt?

 

He's on my Avoid List and has been in both 2012 and 2013. Would only consider him as my 4th RB drafted in a league with a Flex and he never lasts that long.

[Mr_Grim 0]

First off I think McFadden is very talented and a great back, but there is no way I take him in the third round. I would need him to fall to he back half of the 4th just for values sake.

 

He plays behind the worst o-line in the league, hands down. The Oakland team is very talent deficient to begin with and they will be blown out a lot, so they won't be able to run. Also he is injury prone, so you knock him for that. Will be get some more dump offs from Flynn or whoever is running for their lives at QB. He is going to see 8 man fronts all year. No one on they offense is even close to taking the heat off of him. He is flex option only, that's it.

[giraldi02 470]

The question is whether McFadden's per game score (b/c we know he's missing time) is better than other options. In 2011 McFadden was the 7th best PPG RB in standard scoring leagues (8th PPR)

The problem is that McFadden's per game numbers were atrocious last season. In standard scoring leagues, McFadden finished below BJGE on a per game average. PPR leagues he was behind guys like Ridley or Chris Johnson on a per game basis and I like both of their chances for a rebound year this upcoming season. Both of those backs have better situations and coaching on the offensive line as well.

McFadden's price is still too high for a guy that has only totaled over 1,000 yards from scrimmage once in his five year career. I won't have him on any of my teams because of that hefty price tag too.

[Maroon Bells 18]

this is the attitude that gets you a middle place finish every year. Picking DMAC in the 3rd or 4th are the type of picks that win championships (not saying that he is going to pan out). Those high risk high reward picks are what you need be the best, like ADP, lynch, Dez last year are what separate

the pack.

 

Agree.

[Upper Class Trash 67]

Hell no. 5th round? Possibly for upside potential. But my 3rd round pick could easily be something that I know I can start with confidence every week than having to worry about whether or not hes gonna do good or get hurt.

The RB's on the board in the 3rd all all of the injury prone variety, unless you plan on reaching for Vereen in the 3rd, and let's face it, he's injury prone too. There are no "safe" RB's left after the first 24 picks.

[Upper Class Trash 67]

Why take that chance though? Why not grab someone you will feel confident about starting week in and week out in the 3rd round? The list of players available in the 3rd round usually are Roddy White, David Wilson, Frank Fore, Stevan Ridley, Randall Cobb, Larry Fitz, Victor Cruz, Peyton Manning. Id much rather take those guys who I can confidently start every week than have to worry about whether or not this guy is gonna be on his game this week or off his game or even hurt.

Trying to answer these one at a time so you can get my perspective. Ridley went the pick before mine in my last draft. He has admittedly been available some of the time, but there are a LOT of RB's on that roster and only one in Oakland worth owning. Frank Gore? While he had his best season since 2009 last year, why settle for a 30 year old RB with two very capable and much younger players sitting behind him. From what I've read on Rotoworld, Gore is definitely going to see his carries drop this season. Just my opinion, but drafting Gore is sort of like saying you are willing to make the playoffs, but not willing to take a swing for the title. I'll make the playoffs whether DMC busts or not. I'll have a darn good shot to win if he doesn't though. Randall Cobb went in round two, at the 2.11. Fitz went two picks after me. The guy taking Fitz took Trent Richardson in round one, and didn't get his second running back until the 5th, where he took Ahmad Bradshaw. This is a league where you must start 2 RB's each week. He will lose.

[Upper Class Trash 67]

If he is your 3rd rb you better pray he works out because your WRs are going to be awful.

Not only is he my third RB, but my WR's look incredibly solid. I got Nicks in the 4th, Garcon in the 5th, DeSean Jackson in the 6th and although I didn't "need" him, Mike Wallace fell to the 7.04. Wallace and Nicks have both fallen due to not playing in their preseason games. Some people will only draft the next "rising star" that blows up in a meaningless preseason game, even the first one of the season. My three RB's are CJ Spiller, Chris Johnson and Darren McFadden. McFadden was a guy I wanted to play at Flex, but have that covered with a pretty solid WR should he falter. Between McFadden and Wallace at Flex, I think I have either a RB1 or a WR2, either of which are capable of putting up great numbers on any given week.

 

I am kind of surprised at how some people would avoid McFadden in a league that starts 2 RB's, especially in the 3rd. If he is a bust, the loss isn't tremendous, but in the games he has played in his career, he has not been known as a "bust", but an injury prone running back. Funny how many guys have their best seasons when there is money on the line. He must be pretty confident as there is an article on many fantasy websites stating the Raiders tried to open contract negotiations with him and he said he wanted to wait. I don't think he's going to be the top RB, but I think I have the best 3rd RB in the league and didn't sacrifice my WR position to do so. Just my thoughts though and the season is still a month away.

[We Tigers 71]

DMC is sliding down my board some more: Raiders LT Jared Veldheer tore his triceps and is going on at least the 8-week IR. A questionable o-line gets worse.

[Belushi 9]

Besides the injury risk, he's running behind one of the worst O-lines in the league (that's been hit with injuries), and their starting QB can't throw the ball more than 25 yards. McFadden will be facing stacked boxes every week. Not to mention their bad defence which will have them playing catch-up by the 3rd quarter of every game.

 

Where exactly is the upside in all that?

[Bert 1,092]

No QB, bad offensive line, bad WRs, injury risk, 24th RB or worse in my leagues the last couple of years = no way in hell do I even think about him in the 3rd round.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

The raiders just lost their starting left tackle to a torn tricep.

[Djgb13 2,338]

And he drops further for obvious reasons. This is gonna be a horrible season for the Raiders this year with a bad O-Line, poor QB, and the injury bug all over that team.

[tanatastic 2,061]

And he drops further for obvious reasons. This is gonna be a horrible season for the Raiders this year with a bad O-Line, poor QB, and the injury bug all over that team.

 

Poor QB is a little harsh for a guy that threw 6tds in his last game. Ok yea it was garbage time, and yes he got beat by Wilson. But lets be honest, the world of nfl practice and the world of nfl games is totally separate. We see guys appear out of nowhere and become stars and play great. I wrote off Aaron Rodgers as a brittle bust when he took over for Favre. I was rewarded with an all time great. Give Flynn a chance to show he can play in ACTUAL games. A good QB can be the only difference needed for a team like the colts when they lost Peyton and went into the toilet. Im waiting to see with Flynn.

[Boilermaker04 11]

I drafted him 3 years in a row....no mas.

 

McFadden is the Braylon Edwards of RBs.

[lostsoulny 2]

Yes in ppr leagues

[idiotec 31]

I'm not sure many people realize just HOW BAD this team is.

[CallMeBigCat 1]

 

Poor QB is a little harsh for a guy that threw 6tds in his last game. Ok yea it was garbage time, and yes he got beat by Wilson. But lets be honest, the world of nfl practice and the world of nfl games is totally separate. We see guys appear out of nowhere and become stars and play great. I wrote off Aaron Rodgers as a brittle bust when he took over for Favre. I was rewarded with an all time great. Give Flynn a chance to show he can play in ACTUAL games. A good QB can be the only difference needed for a team like the colts when they lost Peyton and went into the toilet. Im waiting to see with Flynn.

 

You probably know this, but Matt Flynn is gonna be no where near the difference maker Peyton Manning was and is. That team is just horrible and I dont think Flynn can change that much. I think he has potential, and if he was surrounded by talent, Im sure he could put up some good numbers. However, that is no where near the case in Oakland.

[5Year1 23]

Absolutely not. I would only consider him as my 4th RB taken and I doubt if he lasts that long.

[Upper Class Trash 67]

It's really simple- yes, you take him in the 3rd round, but only if you've also drafted running backs with your first two picks. Do some mock drafts, you'll be surprised how many WRs are still gonna be there in the 4-8 rounds. Obviously the draft is deep with QB, so you don't have to worry about that either. Like others have pointed out, it's a contract year-his last chance for a huge payday. They aren't doing the zone blocking anymore. All of this points to a huge season for McFadden, but I'd still only take him as a 3rd round pick if he's your 3rd RB.

 

Thank you for a readable post. I agree with this and it is what I have been doing. I'm not using him as anything more than a RB3 or Flex. People should really slow down and read what the posts are about. lol I would not touch him as my RB1 or even my only RB2. The value he "could" bring as a backup or Flex play is incredible.

[throttlers 0]

There are too many better options at his ADP. I'll let someone else have him unless he falls. I would consider him in the 4th or 5th, depending on how my team looked at that point, but I see him going mid 3rd in 12 team leagues.

[socrilles 0]

seemed like a good pick at the end of the fifth round went wr wr...green and bryant, and have leveon gore and mcfadden ...also ivory as rbs, kin. da like my team...lets hope mcfadden doesnt get blown up....cuz that will mean he has a GOOD season which is what you want from rb2. not sure about oakland but teams usually bounce back at least a little

[Djgb13 2,338]

He lasted until the 4th round last night. I already had 3 RBs but if he fell to me in the 4th I was going to take him. He ended up getting taken but still would not trust him as my RB2. That O-line is atrocious

[skinsrule05 30]

He lasted until the 4th round last night. I already had 3 RBs but if he fell to me in the 4th I was going to take him. He ended up getting taken but still would not trust him as my RB2. That O-line is atrocious

I agree with this. I would take him as my RB3 or 4. No way would I take him as RB2. The odds are just too against him for me to take him where I really need to rely on him performing.

[jgcrawfish 232]

Same here...but i'm not even touching him as RB3 because i might be forced to rely on him at some point. He's probably going to explode this year, simply for the fact that he's on my DND list.