Percentage of luck versus skill

[Dsausage 36]

Fantasy can be so rewarding yet so cruel. I always put myself in a position to win through shrewd moves during the season, educated drafts and research. However no matter what there is always luck involved. Kind of reminds me of poker. You can play the better cards (players) each hand (week) but sometimes the good hands get cracked.

 

What percentage of this is luck and what percentage is skill?

 

If it were all luck we would not have "good" fantasy players nor Phil Helmuths but how much of a role does luck play to win championships?

 

[Gratefulegg1973 253]

Interesting question. I think, much like in poker, it is mostly luck now. 10-20 years ago, there was a lot more skill involved. There were some magazines that came out in the summer, and that was it. You actually had to watch the games, evaluate players, etc. Now everything is pretty much done for you. My wife could field a competitive team and hasn't watched a game in years.

 

When I started in the early 90s, I would say 80% skill, 20% luck. Now I'd say 40% skill, 60% luck. Of course when I win, it's all skill.

[Skinny_Bastard 154]

99% luck

1% effort

[murf74 461]

It's injury avoidance, head to head matchups and sometimes just fluke games from mid level players.

 

Mostly luck but its a hobby I can't break.

[Apollo Creed 9]

70% Skill 30% Luck

[stonewall 647]

Skill to get to the playoffs

 

Luck to win the title.

[murf74 461]

70% Skill 30% Luck

 

Thats insane ratio

[Cloaca du jour 2,064]

I think there is definite skill, but the skill is knowledge and the guys at fftoday.

My draft

Romo

Rg knee

Rice

Ridley

Cj

Torry smith

R mendenhall

J graham

Dawson

Browns d

Greg little

And a few other crappy recievers i cant even remember.

 

The only 3 left on my team romo graham cj.

 

I lost in the sb , but without fftoday i would have had a terrible season. I scooped up so many one week wonders thanks to heads up from the contributors here i ended up in the money.

 

I dont know if its skill, but maybe perseverance and alot of reading.

[Perennial Contender 18]

50/50

[TheUsualSuspect 207]

100% Luck, as that assumes one has a pulse.

 

Anyone with Internet access or even just a TV with basic cable can and do win at fantasy football.

 

For every "sleeper" or "sneaky start", there is usually an epic fail to follow. Most, if not all the Gurus on this board at times share the frustration of defeat but we continue to play because it raises our pulse and is simply fun.

 

As for all new and novice league managers, they will continue to join and play too because even they know everyone can have fun and have a chance to win.

[TUM301 10]

25% draft

25% waivers

50% luck ( injuries,weather, matchups etc.)

[illini9825 7]

The skill portion comes in when identifying players for your draft and working the waiver wire beyond the obvious selections that every website recommends.

 

Beyond that, it's all luck. You don't control your schedule, matchups, or injuries. You can plan all you want but if your top picks has a down year, most likely you are SOL for the year.

[skinsrule05 30]

70% Skill 30% Luck

I would agree with ratio over the whole season with the luck factor ramping up in the playoffs.

[5Year1 23]

Most of the time, it takes SKILL to make the playoffs and the championship match and unless it is a 2 week championship match, then luck can play a part. Thats the way it is. Put yourself in the best position possible and then if it goes your way, fine. If it doesn't, don't lose sleep over it. THIS IS A GAME.

[posty 2,296]

100% luck...

[TennisMenace 156]

I think 60% skill 40% luck. Here is my thinking:

 

1. Draft requires skill

2. Injuries is more luck, except if you draft players with injury resumes

3. Waiver wire selections - skill

4. Planning for playoffs - skill

5. Match ups - luck, but planning for those tasty match ups - skill

[posty 2,296]

100% Luck, as that assumes one has a pulse.

 

Anyone with Internet access or even just a TV with basic cable can and do win at fantasy football.

[/thread]

[murf74 461]

I think 60% skill 40% luck. Here is my thinking:

 

1. Draft requires skill

2. Injuries is more luck, except if you draft players with injury resumes

3. Waiver wire selections - skill

4. Planning for playoffs - skill

5. Match ups - luck, but planning for those tasty match ups - skill

 

A) Injuries100% luck (and it doesn't even have to be your guy it could be the QB injury drags down your WR/TE/RB, or oline injury)

B ) Your opponent on a head to head basis 100% luck.

 

All your "skills" listed are totally dependent on A and B. Planning for playoffs is a joke unless you get A and B break in your favor.

 

The only skill involved is ridding your roster of waste and when to do it. Get your roster totally full top to bottom of useful players so when your starters go down you have depth. But you can do all that and still be affected by A and B. And injuries are random and could happen in the first quarter and crush your weekly win hopes or happen at the end of the 4th and only affect you for the following week.

 

I think it does take some skill in drafting only in figuring out value of when to take each position, otherwise everyone else is working off pretty much the same list plus or minus a few slots. It's not like we are scouting players nobody heard of in the depths of the college ranks. There are no sleepers anymore those died off years ago with Al Gore's invention of the internet. Today's sleepers turn into players being drafted to start on their fantasy teams. Waiver wire is a joke now. I can guarantee the 8 or so players to be taken off the wire and in what order. You know why? The website that hosts your league tells you what to do. So you look at everyone's roster....oh he needs a QB, there goes Foles, this guy needs a RB there goes Stacy, and so on. There is no skill in evaluating players anymore. I picked up Zach Stacy without ever seeing him play a snap. Worked out great for me but I can't say I was on to something there or I would have drafted him.

 

I have made the superbowl in my work league 3 years in a row now and have won numerous championships over the years. In random paid internet leagues I almost always make the playoffs and have won superbowls, but I still think it's all mostly driven by luck despite my high percentage of success.

[posty 2,296]

A) Injuries100% luck (and it doesn't even have to be your guy it could be the QB injury drags down your WR/TE/RB, or oline injury)

B ) Your opponent on a head to head basis 100% luck.

 

All your "skills" listed are totally dependent on A and B. Planning for playoffs is a joke unless you get A and B break in your favor.

 

The only skill involved is ridding your roster of waste and when to do it. Get your roster totally full top to bottom of useful players so when your starters go down you have depth. But you can do all that and still be affected by A and B. And injuries are random and could happen in the first quarter and crush your weekly win hopes or happen at the end of the 4th and only affect you for the following week.

 

I think it does take some skill in drafting only in figuring out value of when to take each position, otherwise everyone else is working off pretty much the same list plus or minus a few slots. It's not like we are scouting players nobody heard of in the depths of the college ranks. There are no sleepers anymore those died off years ago with Al Gore's invention of the internet. Today's sleepers turn into players being drafted to start on their fantasy teams. Waiver wire is a joke now. I can guarantee the 8 or so players to be taken off the wire and in what order. You know why? The website that hosts your league tells you what to do. So you look at everyone's roster....oh he needs a QB, there goes Foles, this guy needs a RB there goes Stacy, and so on. There is no skill in evaluating players anymore. I picked up Zach Stacy without ever seeing him play a snap. Worked out great for me but I can't say I was on to something there or I would have drafted him.

 

I have made the superbowl in my work league 3 years in a row now and have won numerous championships over the years. In random paid internet leagues I almost always make the playoffs and have won superbowls, but I still think it's all mostly driven by luck despite my high percentage of success.

Totally agree... If Crabtree doesn't score 34 points tonight, I will have won my eighth title (next closest is three) in 18 years (and made the playoffs in 14 of them)... I still think it is all luck...

[kobe808lak 7]

There is no skill involved - I would argue it is 10% gathering of information (more or less not being lazy) and 90% luck / anomalies.

[TimmySmith 2,782]

Considering the same 3 guys are generally fighting for a Championship in my league, it is mostly skill.

[Quickolas1 80]

"Skill" is a highly debatable word to use. "Effort" and maybe "knowledge of intricacies" (based on logic and many times learned from experience) are better.

 

If you've got 1 or 2 (or more) owners who are unexperienced and/or don't do the little things and half-pay attention at certain points, then your need for good luck vs those owners goes down dramatically... and those same people may seldomly make the playoffs.

 

And vice versa - the same owners who put forth the effort and know what to avoid and when to take risks - usually make the playoffs.

 

But when those owners play each other, it becomes almost all luck.

(injuries, H2H schedule, your players' matchups, high standard deviation of individual players' scoring, etc.)

 

And you usually know exactly who those owners are in your league, no matter how much you tell yourself you're more skillful than they.

[murf74 461]

"Skill" is a highly debatable word to use. "Effort" and maybe "knowledge of intricacies" (based on logic and many times learned from experience) are better.

 

If you've got 1 or 2 (or more) owners who are unexperienced and/or don't do the little things and half-pay attention at certain points, then your need for good luck vs those owners goes down dramatically... and those same people may seldomly make the playoffs.

 

And vice versa - the same owners who put forth the effort and know what to avoid and when to take risks - usually make the playoffs.

 

But when those owners play each other, it becomes almost all luck.

(injuries, H2H schedule, your players' matchups, high standard deviation of individual players' scoring, etc.)

 

And you usually know exactly who those owners are in your league, no matter how much you tell yourself you're more skillful than they.

 

You hit on a good topic of "Skill" is simply just being active in making waiver moves. No matter how many leagues I have been in the owners that are not successful simply draft and set lineups. No effort to change out a struggling defense or keeps the sucky backup QB rather than going for guys like Foles or keeps a handcuff running back on his roster all year instead of going for a Zach Stacy.. Those types of owners drag down the league and it makes those who give any effort a better chance at making the playoffs. These same guys take a couple weeks before cutting guys that end up on IR (like David Wilson, etc). Every league usually has at least one of these guys.

 

Effort = Skill (but it's not really skill)

 

One more place for luck is your placement in a random division. You get stuck in the good division and watch the owner of the sucky division walk into the playoffs while you play stud teams twice a pop

[Stewburtx8 67]

Play daily/weekly fantasy football. It takes a lot of the luck of season long injuries out of play.

[Perennial Contender 18]

It is more knowledge than skill. I played in a first year league with my neighbors this year and dominated. Most of them never played real football, most was their 1st year playing FF, and most probably don't know the difference between a Guard and a Tackle or a Safety and a CB.

 

FF has grown so much that everyone seems to play it now. Many rely on the "FF Guru's" on the internet for information. As we all know the "Gurus" are wrong more than right.

 

So football knowledge and FF knowledge and experience comes into play big time.

 

Obviously luck is a huge factor too (injuries, matchups, weather, or when a player has a career game).

 

This much I know, I played football since I was a child, have been reading box scores and watching it for just as long, and I am always in contention every year. So knowledge and experience are major factors.

 

As well as paying attention and managing your team all year.

[murf74 461]

It is more knowledge than skill. I played in a first year league with my neighbors this year and dominated. Most of them never played real football, most was their 1st year playing FF, and most probably don't know the difference between a Guard and a Tackle or a Safety and a CB.

 

FF has grown so much that everyone seems to play it now. Many rely on the "FF Guru's" on the internet for information. As we all know the "Gurus" are wrong more than right.

 

So football knowledge and FF knowledge and experience comes into play big time.

 

Obviously luck is a huge factor too (injuries, matchups, weather, or when a player has a career game).

 

This much I know, I played football since I was a child, have been reading box scores and watching it for just as long, and I am always in contention every year. So knowledge and experience are major factors.

What knowledge would have prevented losing Rodgers and Julio this year? What knowledge helps you not play against highest scoring team each week?

[Sho Nuff 719]

When I win...its because of skill.

When I lose...its because of bad luck.

[Showboat 145]

When I win...its because of skill.

When I lose...its because of bad luck.

This.

 

I played very skillfully in winning one league, but I had horrible luck in my other league and missed the playoffs.

[Perennial Contender 18]

What knowledge would have prevented losing Rodgers and Julio this year? What knowledge helps you not play against highest scoring team each week?

I think I covered that. Luck is a factor. And so is knowledge. Like having a quality backup QB. Or "handcuffing" backups. Assessing matchups and rookies, etc.

[JtmoneyJag 25]

I've had too much success in fantasy football for luck to be more then 50%. I've been to the playoffs 6 out of the last 7 years (league was started 8 years ago) in my main league and reached the championship game 4 times (in it this year for chance at 3rd title). 12 teams and only 4 teams make playoffs.

 

My other main league I have made playoffs all 3 times (started 3 years ago), won the title last year and came in 3rd this year. 14 teams with 6 going to playoffs. I also won another league so 2 out of 3 last year.

 

Anyways, the point being, that is way too much success for it to just be considered luck. Have I been lucky? Sure, but I've also made some great calls that put my team in a position to win (picked up Rams D 3 weeks ago just for championship game in case I made it in and picked up Novak this week. Had I not picked them up, I probably wouldn't have a shot of winning championship).

 

To me, fantasy football is a war of attrition. It is hard for a lot of people to stay focused on something for that period of time. Maybe it isn't skill so much as it is putting time into your knowledge of players and staying consistent week in and week out on the waiver wire. Anyways, just my 2 cents.

[JtmoneyJag 25]

What knowledge would have prevented losing Rodgers and Julio this year? What knowledge helps you not play against highest scoring team each week?

 

Well, that is the luck part. Of course there is luck involved, but over 16 weeks typically the better fantasy players rise to the top. That is why you have depth and constantly work the waiver wire in case a player goes down. Couldn't you have picked up Nick Foles when he was available? Couldn't you have picked up Keenan Allen (was available in many leagues) or Riley Cooper (decent, not great) or drafted better depth like Josh Gordon? Having the highest scoring team will help you not play the highest scoring team.

[edjr 5,567]

70% Skill 30% Luck

 

 

The same % as NL texas holdem

[skinsrule05 30]

I think I covered that. Luck is a factor. And so is knowledge. Like having a quality backup QB. Or "handcuffing" backups. Assessing matchups and rookies, etc.

This is well said. Losing Julio or Rodgers is luck but having the knowledge to of already picked up replacements like Foles or Allen is the skill part.

[Boilermaker04 11]

Any given Sunday.

 

I'm not a fan of the poker analogy because that implies you can actively influence others decisions. There is no bluffing in ff. A more similar game is blackjack. Keeping probability on your side should win you more than you lose, but there are no guarantees of success for any player any week.

 

Research and knowledge give you an edge on that probability beyond reading Matthew Berry every week. How much of an edge is completely up to luck.

 

Like any game of chance, wrong decisions will win and right decisions will lose. Every week is all luck, but the good players get lucky more often than the bad ones.

[Dsausage 36]

Some great answers on here. My answer being brief is there is some skill involved for sure. I started in a new league this year. 14 player full point ppr league. I figured with 14 teams depth would be an issue. I just grabbed the best skills player available in the draft. Got a QB late. Ended up with 5 top name WR's and traded them later in the season. You also can be skillful in getting players on the radar the week before. People did not jump on Foles until the week after he blew up. I jumped on him when I saw what he was capable of and the knowing how bad Michael Vick really is...

 

I would say its 50 50.

[tikigods 76]

When you lose, you go buy one of these: http://www.jerseytees.com