Projections & Rankings - Preseason 2014

[Mike FF Today 611]

We're off and running! I posted our first set of projections and player rankings for the pre-season late last night. Antonio (IDP) and I have written some comments on select players and I will also do a blog post after each update highlighting my thoughts on the rankings.

 

This is the time of year were I'm still formulating opinions on specific players and still have some questions regarding the offensive philosophies of a couple teams (Dallas being the main one) but after my 6+ week process of league and team specific study, I feel like I've got a good base start from. I'm excited to get this season rolling!

[Law 220]

Christmas in June!!

 

[Frozenbeernuts 1,653]

:salivating:

[BobSanders_33 127]

There are a lot of bold projections there. Shocked at where you have Gronk listed.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,653]

I am assuming the ranking isn't based off of a ppr league? I think Vereen is way too low if ppr is factored in. If ppr isn't then I can understand the positioning.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,653]

The other ranking I noticed where I differ big time is Garcon. I think he gets freed up with the addition of Jackson.

[Bishop82 61]

Toby Gerhart a top 10 RB?

 

Maybe in an all white league.

[PackYourNut 47]

Toby Gerhart a top 10 RB?

 

Maybe in an all white league.

 

dats racist

[Mike FF Today 611]

I am assuming the ranking isn't based off of a ppr league? I think Vereen is way too low if ppr is factored in. If ppr isn't then I can understand the positioning.

 

My rankings are for a Non-ppr league Frozen. I'll update the rank pages to make that more clear.

[Mike FF Today 611]

There are a lot of bold projections there. Shocked at where you have Gronk listed.

 

Gronk's ranking right now is a factor of his health status more than anything. Coming off a December ACL injury, It's a little too early to have a concrete guess on his Week 1 status.

[BDuncan 3]

It's been a few years since I have seen anyone other than Megatron at the top of the WR list. These rankings are definitely different from most of the others you'll see around the internet.

[weepaws 2,515]

I can't wait to go camping this summer .They say the fishing is going to be awesome .

[MTSkiBum 1,605]

Keenan Robinson should be on your linebacker list. He has the inside track to be the inside backer for the Redskins. The redskins stat-keeper is notoriously friendly for inside backers. Since the home stat-keeper determines IDP scoring this is one of the most important factors in choosing IDP players.

 

If Keenan Robinson manages to stay healthy is a lock to finish in the top 20. The only question mark is if he can be stay healthy. But you rank other injury risks.

[dave32 14]

Did I miss something on Eddie Lacy?

[Smileseers 54]

Since 1992 TWO or more WRs have scored 12 TDs or more. I think that is more than a trend. I'm curious about projections that disregard this information?

Otherwise, great job!

[sirensong 111]

agree that the DAL situation is very complex and tough to predict. there are so many factors involved:

 

-improvement to the already-improved O line

 

-linehan's history

 

-murray's performance in the back half of '13

 

-romo's back

 

-contract seasons for dez and murray

 

...and most of all the dismal defense. but do they focus on protecting the defense with the run game, or counting on romo to outscore opponents? is linehan going to air it out or grind it out? add in the divisional situation--PHI and WAS are both improved, and look to perform very well offensively.

 

i don't envy guys who have to make predictions on this.

[remote controller 136]

Mike has never been cookie cutter with his rankings. It's nice to have an opinion that isn't calculated for response. I feel Lacy and Ball should flip flop in the Rb rankings, and that Murray and Martin are too high and Foster too low. Many have Marshall and Jeffry ranked high and Cutler low?????? don't get it. I would drop Ryan and move Cutler up a few spots and drop Ryan below him.

[remote controller 136]

I feel the top six wideouts (he nailed them) are dead even. The next six are real good. (he nailed them too 'cept I would sub Cobb or VJax for Patterson)

[Frozenbeernuts 1,653]

Murray is going to be top 5 this year unless injured. You will want to add him in the second round wherever you can.

[jtimko 2]

Stafford in tier 3 behind RG3, Ryan, and Foles?? Stafford's been plagued by WR injuries and poor coaching and has still managed to be one of the most reliable QBs. Taking a guy like Foles seems like a huge gamble to me. His sample size is very small- remember the Kaepernick hype last year?? Stafford's new weapons and OC should easily make him a top 5 QB with little risk.

 

Eddie Lacy at 13 and Toby Gerhart at 10 are also head-scratchers.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,653]

Jtimko i think i disagree with everything you said except for lacy at 13

[jtimko 2]

Jtimko i think i disagree with everything you said except for lacy at 13

Seems most agree with me. Just about every other ranking site and mock draft have him in the top 5.

[rholio 339]

Murray is going to be top 5 this year unless injured. You will want to add him in the second round wherever you can.

 

I think you misspelled "until" as "unless". Until injured.

[ICEMAN 39]

 

Gronk's ranking right now is a factor of his health status more than anything. Coming off a December ACL injury, It's a little too early to have a concrete guess on his Week 1 status.

 

The thing about Gronk (and I am a Pat's fan) is that I am more worried about his next injury that I am of the injury he is recovering from! This propensity for injury goes back to his college days. When he plays, he is the #1 TE in the league, but you just can't count on him to be on the field for more than 70% of the year, which does drop him down the rankings 4-5 spots.

 

ICEMAN

[Criper 24]

Appreciate the effort, Mike, and every year I look forward to the projections from this site since I value the opinions of the writers here. I always do my own projections and enjoy the comparisons. One thing I do differently though, is I look for statistical trends over the past 3-5 seasons, and I make a lot of my own projections based on some of these trends.

 

For example, a couple of things that jump out at me are the projection of 27 WRs to go over 1000 yards, considering last year, there were only 23, only 19 in '12, 17 in '11, 16 in '10, and 20 in '09, so 27 seems very unlikely to me, based on the recent trend over the past 5 years. Also, no WR is projected over 1500 yards receiving, yet in 2013, there was 1, and 3 in 2012, and 3 in 2011 as well. Seems likely SOMEONE will have more than 1500 yards receiving in 2014. Only 1 WR projected with more than 11 TDs, yet the actual number of WRs with 12 or more TDs over the past 5 years, is 4, 3, 2, 3, and 2. Again, you figure at a minimum, at least 2 WRs will have 12+ TDs in 2014.

 

From the TEs, I only see 1 that is projected with more than 80 receptions, yet in 4 of the past 5 seasons, there have been at least 3 TEs with 80 or more receptions.

 

From the RBs, nobody projected with more than 1426 rushing yards, yet in every one of the past 5 seasons, someone has rushed for 1600+ yards. I also notice no RB with more than 11 rushing TDs projected, yet the number of RBs with 12 or more rushing TDs in a season since 2009, is 2, 4, 4, 5, and 6 so the trend would suggest in 2014, even if the trend is trending down, still at least 1 RB should rush for 12 or more TDs in 2014 because someone has done so every season for at least the past 5 years.

 

For QBs, from a trend perspective, not too much stands out other than only 3 QBs projected with 30+ TDs, but there have been 5 QBs to finish with 30+ TDs in each of the last 3 seasons.

 

As for individual players, starting with the QBs: I like the slight decline you project for Peyton and it's right in line with own projection of 5137 yds, 45 TDs, and 11 Ints. I am a Nick Foles believer and have more yards and TDs projected personally. Unless you're projecting Romo to miss some games, I don't see any way he doesn't throw for 4500+ this year as the defense still has major holes, which means they'll be in a lot of shootouts this year. I have Romo at 4965/32/12. I agree on the Dalton and Luck projections, but I have hard time seeing Cam getting 22 TDs through the air this year with the lack of talent at the WR position.

 

RBs: Curious why the low rushing projection for Charles? I'm not touching Lynch this year as I don't see another beast-like season for him, and I have him barely over 1k yards myself. Love the Gerhart projection yardage wise, but I just don't see enough scoring opportunities for him to get 9 rushing TDs. It's still the Jaguars, but he could easily push 300 carries and fall down for almost 1200 yards. My own projection is 290 carries for 1143 yards and 6 TDs on the ground. Ball and Lacy are way too low IMO, as are Rashad Jennings and Ridley. Zac Stacy is too high, as I believe Mason will eventually eat into Stacy's carries and so is Doug Martin ranked too high IMO. I don't know what to make of Ray Rice and the Ravens backfield just yet, but your Rice projection is very similar to mine right now.

 

WRs: The Percy Harvin projection leaps off the page. 94 receptions? Do you really believe that Carroll will throw the ball enough to net 94 receptions out of Percy? I dig the boldness of the projection, but unless Seattle's D takes a major step backwards this year, I just can't fathom them throwing it enough for this to happen. The Dez projection seem way low to me. IMO, if there is any receiver that is a lock for 100+ receptions this year, it's Dez, in that Scott Linehan offense, and he is my #1 ranked WR this year. I don't see Steve Smith getting 61 catches in a Kubiak designed offense that doesn't support a #2 WR traditionally. I see you have Floyd performing better than Fitz this year, as do I, but I have an even wider margin. Love the Julio Jones bounce back projection as it's very similar to mine. Dude was on pace for over 100 catches last year before getting injured, and if he is able to play all 16, he should get 100 this year because the Falcons will be playing from behind a lot once again.

 

TEs: Not much to disagree with here, but Escobar with 44 receptions is a shocker. I know they want to use him more, and his blocking is reportedly something he's worked on, but without an injury to Witten, 44 receptions seems like a lot for the #2 TE, even in a pass heavy offense. The Gronk projection would obviously change if he doesn't miss the first 6 games on PUP. Cameron may be projected a little low considering the lack of playmakers at WR. Rivera is an interesting projection since he is working behind Ausberry in OTAs though that could change. Raiders really liked Ausberry's skills, and it was his job prior to the injury last year. I don't see any way Amaro catches 50+ as a rookie in that offense. Housler may not see enough targets for 50 either. Love the Garrett Graham projection though as he plays the Aaron Hernandez role in O'Brien's offense, but curious why you don't project more from Ryan Griffin supposedly in the Gronk role?

 

Overall, a lot of good information here. Thanks Mike!

[$epphori$ 118]

Murray is going to be top 5 this year unless injured. You will want to add him in the second round wherever you can.

I don't get this...why will Murray be great this year? Stat projections show him as high as #3 RB lol. He has never stayed healthy and Dallas year after year are so jeckle and hyde why would anyone want any Cowgurl is beyond me.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,653]

I don't get this...why will Murray be great this year? Stat projections show him as high as #3 RB lol. He has never stayed healthy and Dallas year after year are so jeckle and hyde why would anyone want any Cowgurl is beyond me.

Because that offensive line has been improving the past 2 years and he was a good rb the second half. The risk is there for injury but he still does play most games each year. I just see it all coming together for him this year.

[dave32 14]

I don't get this...why will Murray be great this year? Stat projections show him as high as #3 RB lol. He has never stayed healthy and Dallas year after year are so jeckle and hyde why would anyone want any Cowgurl is beyond me.

 

Only missed two games last year/every running back is an injury risk. Improved O-Line. Contract Year.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Demarco at 3..ok, ill see where this goes. Gerhart at 7 (closes article).

[Frozenbeernuts 1,653]

Demarco at 3..ok, ill see where this goes. Gerhart at 7 (closes article).

Oh get off it. Like your rankings are so superior. Do you want every site to have the exact rankings that agree with your rankings?

 

When a site like this puts up their rankings and they are drastically different than others for some players, it creates a good opportunity to find out why. This is a great place to pick the brain of the person who made the rankings. You may learn something you hadnt previously known about a player.