Forty Niner Homer 3 Posted November 21, 2014 4 years not one championship Once in playoffs This year currently 4-7 Need to win out and score HUGE Points And need the 3 teams ahead of me 5-6 To lose !! So glad to see my trend of crappy draft picks And follow my gut calls put me in such a spot again just sharing Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
phillygrrl08 139 Posted November 21, 2014 That's just it--fantasy is 90% luck, 10% skill imo. You can do your homework, watch preseason games through their entirety, mock draft until your spouse is ready to leave you and still have your best players get suspended/hurt/have their team collapse around them, leaving them worthless (see VJax). It's still great fun, and I don't care if I don't win. August through December is the best time of the year for me! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Patriotsfatboy1 1,432 Posted November 21, 2014 Losers call it luck. Not sure about your league, but I am in a one-keeper league and it is consistently the same teams in the playoffs. Sure, you get the blips where a team is devastated by injuries, but if you are consistently out of the playoffs and there are other teams in the same league that are consistently in the playoffs, then it is not luck. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Forty Niner Homer 3 Posted November 21, 2014 Yeah it's fun I like winning but as long as I'm in contention I'm ok Being out of contention early in season blows Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Forty Niner Homer 3 Posted November 21, 2014 Losers call it luck. Not sure about your league, but I am in a one-keeper league and it is consistently the same teams in the playoffs. Sure, you get the blips where a team is devastated by injuries, but if you are consistently out of the playoffs and there are other teams in the same league that are consistently in the playoffs, then it is not luck. To a point agree with you I have made bad moves always week early or week late mostly I need to ride players out a bit give them opportunity Not overreact But not being non reactive You know what I mean ? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Upper Class Trash 67 Posted November 21, 2014 Losers call it luck. Not sure about your league, but I am in a one-keeper league and it is consistently the same teams in the playoffs. Sure, you get the blips where a team is devastated by injuries, but if you are consistently out of the playoffs and there are other teams in the same league that are consistently in the playoffs, then it is not luck. I agree. In my dynasty leagues, it's the same 4 of us owners in the playoffs year after year. Only the guys not making the playoffs call it luck. In my redraft leagues, I am having the worst year of my fantasy life and STILL will not call it luck. I drafted poorly and see the flaws in how I did so. It wasn't an "unlucky" draft, it was faulty reasoning and logic on my part in drafting who I did. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Forty Niner Homer 3 Posted November 21, 2014 Yeah I see most the playoff teams over the last 4 years same guys I suck at this Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flyfreak 84 Posted November 21, 2014 I usually play for the championship every year, not buying the luck stuff Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,460 Posted November 21, 2014 4 years not one championship Once in playoffs This year currently 4-7 Need to win out and score HUGE Points And need the 3 teams ahead of me 5-6 To lose !! So glad to see my trend of crappy draft picks And follow my gut calls put me in such a spot again just sharing I disagree . It's not luck . You are not good at it is what is comes down to . Fantasy football like life has nothing to do with luck Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
murf74 461 Posted November 21, 2014 I make playoffs in probably 80 to 90 percent of leagues since 1995 and I still think it's mostly 75% luck and 25% skill. However that 25% of roster management in trades, draft, free agents, and who to start is what separates the men from the boys. Once you get to the playoffs it's more like 95% luck to win it all Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WhiteWonder 2,172 Posted November 21, 2014 People who claim it's all skill are kidding themselves. I've been playing FF in some capacity since I was 13. I've been in leagues where I won 4 straight titles, leagues where I lost the title game 5 times in 6 years...yes that is correct. I lost 3 straight, missed the playoffs and lost another 2 before the league folded... and leagues where I've missed the playoffs 2 or 3 years in a row. There is skill involved to an extent but there is far more luck involved than a lot of "gurus" care to admit. Like poker players. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flyfreak 84 Posted November 21, 2014 What's a good working definition of ff luck? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Law 220 Posted November 21, 2014 Ahhhh, here we go again! The 'ole luck vs skill debate. It's been a few days. We're slipping. You tell me how I am 35-9 in four leagues. How I'm in first or second in all four leagues. How I'm the top scoring team in 3 of 4. How in my two annual leagues, I am almost always in the playoffs (16 of 17), if not the championship. How is that luck? Surely my "luck" would turn. Surely others would have theirs turn at some point, no? NO! Because it is NOT luck! Sure, there is some luck in each week's game play. This player gets tackled at the one and someone else scores. But over several players, and the more the better, the luck aspect as minimized. You play 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 DEF and you get a greater luck factor. Also, if it's very TD heavy, the greater the luck. BUT, my leagues have more starters and the scoring is spread out so as to not be so TD heavy - minimizing the luck and maximizing the skill. I always revert back to saying: it takes skill to make the playoffs and luck to win them. I think this is very true and I have clear history and experience to prove it. But then again, I win. If I routinely lost I might cry luck too! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Law 220 Posted November 21, 2014 What's a good working definition of ff luck? I lost therefore I am unlucky. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flyfreak 84 Posted November 21, 2014 Hahaha, nice many would say you lack skillz Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
posty 2,296 Posted November 21, 2014 That's just it--fantasy is 100% 90% luck, 10% skill imo. Fixed... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jerryskids 5,206 Posted November 21, 2014 Ahhhh, here we go again! The 'ole luck vs skill debate. It's been a few days. We're slipping. You tell me how I am 35-9 in four leagues. How I'm in first or second in all four leagues. How I'm the top scoring team in 3 of 4. How in my two annual leagues, I am almost always in the playoffs (16 of 17), if not the championship. How is that luck? Surely my "luck" would turn. Surely others would have theirs turn at some point, no? NO! Because it is NOT luck! Sure, there is some luck in each week's game play. This player gets tackled at the one and someone else scores. But over several players, and the more the better, the luck aspect as minimized. You play 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 DEF and you get a greater luck factor. Also, if it's very TD heavy, the greater the luck. BUT, my leagues have more starters and the scoring is spread out so as to not be so TD heavy - minimizing the luck and maximizing the skill. I always revert back to saying: it takes skill to make the playoffs and luck to win them. I think this is very true and I have clear history and experience to prove it. But then again, I win. If I routinely lost I might cry luck too! Statistically, about the only way to get such a record is to have targeted and specifically gotten a lot of the same players in those leagues, and to have been right about them. Anyway, I am in 4 leagues. Have a killer team in one, and various degrees of suck in the others. But the league with the killer team is the only one that was a traditional redraft -- the other three were a deep keeper, an autodraft ( work league), and IBL which is an entity of its own. So I feel pretty good about that. That being said, the killer team league was the last draft I did, and I learned some things from mistakes I made in the previous drafts. So that involves the skill part. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stonewall 647 Posted November 21, 2014 I usually play for the championship every year, not buying the luck stuff Did you tell us that you put down 8,700 dollars on KC last night? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flyfreak 84 Posted November 21, 2014 Did you tell us that you put down 8,700 dollars on KC last night? don't confuse luck with stupid Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
twofewbraincell 7 Posted November 21, 2014 Here's a good example of how luck can affect you in FF. Last season in my annual 10 team league I got off to a 1-6 start while I had the most points scored in the league by a decent margin. I ended up winning my next 6 straight to barely get into the playoffs. First week of the playoffs I have my only ###### game of the season. If I had gotten a bye then I would have easily taken the championship. Fast forward to this year same league. I'm once again leading the league in scoring and rocking a robust 5-6 record. I'm playing the 2nd and 3rd ranked team in the last two weeks and I need to win at least one of those games. The chance that a team could lead a league in scoring yet finish 6th or worse in back to back years is extremely unlucky. I think their is a lot of skill involved in putting together a team that will outscore most of the league any given week, but after that you really have no control over who you play against (looking at you Larry Donnell). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flyfreak 84 Posted November 21, 2014 losing weekly matchups doesn't have anything to do with luck Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DB Cooper 6 Posted November 21, 2014 Ppr auction league. One team went Studs and Duds. Spent big on McCoy, Mega, AJ. Thought he'd be tough to beat. Now in last place. Skill or luck? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flyfreak 84 Posted November 21, 2014 Ppr auction league. One team went Studs and Duds. Spent big on McCoy, Mega, AJ. Thought he'd be tough to beat. Now in last place. Skill or luck? skill, unfortunate skill, but skill nevertheless Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Patriotsfatboy1 1,432 Posted November 21, 2014 Here's a good example of how luck can affect you in FF. Last season in my annual 10 team league I got off to a 1-6 start while I had the most points scored in the league by a decent margin. I ended up winning my next 6 straight to barely get into the playoffs. First week of the playoffs I have my only ###### game of the season. If I had gotten a bye then I would have easily taken the championship. Fast forward to this year same league. I'm once again leading the league in scoring and rocking a robust 5-6 record. I'm playing the 2nd and 3rd ranked team in the last two weeks and I need to win at least one of those games. The chance that a team could lead a league in scoring yet finish 6th or worse in back to back years is extremely unlucky. I think their is a lot of skill involved in putting together a team that will outscore most of the league any given week, but after that you really have no control over who you play against (looking at you Larry Donnell). You see this happen with teams that have feast or famine players. You either put up a ton of points in a week or narrowly lose. Some of that is luck, but some of that is statistical. You can look at the consistency of players and try to have a balance so that you don't have those wild fluctuations. We have a guy in our league who whines about this every year. He thinks that he leads in points and yet misses the playoffs. In reality, he is 4th or 5th in points and misses the playoffs mainly because he has guys that have either a monster game or they fail to show up. It is okay if you have 1 or 2 of those guys, but you can't have an entire team of them. There is no question that there is luck in FF. To say that it is all luck is dumb. It is probably 50-50. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flyfreak 84 Posted November 21, 2014 You see this happen with teams that have feast or famine players. You either put up a ton of points in a week or narrowly lose. Some of that is luck, but some of that is statistical. You can look at the consistency of players and try to have a balance so that you don't have those wild fluctuations. We have a guy in our league who whines about this every year. He thinks that he leads in points and yet misses the playoffs. In reality, he is 4th or 5th in points and misses the playoffs mainly because he has guys that have either a monster game or they fail to show up. It is okay if you have 1 or 2 of those guys, but you can't have an entire team of them. There is no question that there is luck in FF. To say that it is all luck is dumb. It is probably 50-50. the is no luck in ff it's a strategy game and everyone plays on the same level field ff isn't a game of chance, where you flip over random cards in hopes of getting the "get out of jail free" card, now that's the definition of luck Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DaBeerz 88 Posted November 21, 2014 Dude I've been in the playoffs every year in my league, except for one, and that was when I missed the draft and was autodrafted a -tier team. Yes there is some luck involved when you get to the playoffs, you need your guys to perform. 1. Draft is probably 80% of it. You can have a few busts, but you need to hit on a few core players or you're done. For me, past performance is the best indicator of future success, and I will almost always take a safer player who consistently scores a lower number of points than a feast or famine guy who blows up for a lot of points. Don't reach too early and often in the draft, there are some great best available player strategies out there. 2. Waivers, you must be busy on the wire, constantly. Almost every year there are 2-3 players on the WW that can put you over the top. You can't build a team off the WW if your draft sucked, but you can definitely make moves to improve your position and fill some holes. 3. WSIS; This year I've been pretty good at it, but even so I've had at least 2 games that I could have won with points that were sitting on my bench. 4. Trades: I usually try to make at least 1 a year, depending on what it is, but if you make good trades that have a benefit for both teams, you may find a future trading partner in subsequent seasons. 5. Know when to cut 'em. People overvalue their draft picks, and undervalue ww guys, regardless of what round guys were drafted in, if they're not performing, you have to sometimes make the cut. Peterson, Ball, V. Davis, are guys I've seen people hang onto all year who never performed. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flyfreak 84 Posted November 21, 2014 nice post, i still say most ffers confuse luck with being unfortunate, there really is no luck in ff Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Forty Niner Homer 3 Posted November 21, 2014 Good stuff Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SaintsInDome2006 128 Posted November 21, 2014 4 years not one championship Once in playoffs This year currently 4-7 Need to win out and score HUGE Points And need the 3 teams ahead of me 5-6 To lose !! So glad to see my trend of crappy draft picks And follow my gut calls put me in such a spot again just sharing That's not bad luck. Bad luck is: week 1 picked wrong Denver kicker at draft, RB1 injured, lose by 0.3 - loss week 2 starting QB hurt after 1 series (Griffin) and RB2 injured after 1 run (Moreno) - loss week 5 RB2 injured after 1 half (Ball) - loss Week 6 pick wrong starting Den Rb get 0 from RB2, Rb1 gets 4 (Lacy), defense gets 0 - loss week 9 top-5 QB gets -2 out of nowhere (Rivers) - loss week 10 having finally found a RB2 (Hillman) he gets hurt in 1st half - loss Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
shorepatrol 1,737 Posted November 21, 2014 That's not bad luck. Bad luck is: week 1 picked wrong Denver kicker at draft, RB1 injured, lose by 0.3 - loss week 2 starting QB hurt after 1 series (Griffin) and RB2 injured after 1 run (Moreno) - loss week 5 RB2 injured after 1 half (Ball) - loss Week 6 pick wrong starting Den Rb get 0 from RB2, Rb1 gets 4 (Lacy), defense gets 0 - loss week 9 top-5 QB gets -2 out of nowhere (Rivers) - loss week 10 having finally found a RB2 (Hillman) he gets hurt in 1st half - loss Thats not bad luck, you are top notch shiiiiitty at FF looking at the above Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SaintsInDome2006 128 Posted November 21, 2014 Thats not bad luck, you are top notch shiiiiitty at FF looking at the above Ok I've done very nicely over time thanks. This may be the only year I've cried about bad luck and you may be right, I've had a hole in my RB2 spot I've never filled. Well I did with Hillman and he got hurt, well I guess that wasn't bad luck, right? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
murf74 461 Posted November 21, 2014 Someone let me know how to develop the skill to play against a bad performing team each week. Someone let me know how to develop the skill to not have any of my players beat their kid with a stick Someone let me know how to develop the skill to get placed in the easy division so I can win it rather than hoping to make a wildcard in the tougher division Someone let me know how to develop the skill to get a good draft slot in redraft leagues Someone let me know how to develop the skill to not have my QBs team defense score a bunch of TDs leading to a blowout so he ends up sitting out the 4th quarter Someone let me know how to develop the skill to not have a player get hurt in the first quarter Someone let me know how to control the weather at the stadiums my players are at Someone let me know how to develop the skill to not have multiple players get hurt in the same game Someone let me know the skill to have my WR not get mugged in the endzone robbed of an easy TD so that my opponents RB doesn't get the 1 yard vulching TD I need to work on these skills. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WhiteWonder 2,172 Posted November 21, 2014 Ahhhh, here we go again! The 'ole luck vs skill debate. It's been a few days. We're slipping. You tell me how I am 35-9 in four leagues. How I'm in first or second in all four leagues. How I'm the top scoring team in 3 of 4. How in my two annual leagues, I am almost always in the playoffs (16 of 17), if not the championship. How is that luck? Surely my "luck" would turn. Surely others would have theirs turn at some point, no? NO! Because it is NOT luck! Sure, there is some luck in each week's game play. This player gets tackled at the one and someone else scores. But over several players, and the more the better, the luck aspect as minimized. You play 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 DEF and you get a greater luck factor. Also, if it's very TD heavy, the greater the luck. BUT, my leagues have more starters and the scoring is spread out so as to not be so TD heavy - minimizing the luck and maximizing the skill. I always revert back to saying: it takes skill to make the playoffs and luck to win them. I think this is very true and I have clear history and experience to prove it. But then again, I win. If I routinely lost I might cry luck too! again no one can realistically say that fantasy football is 100 percent luck there is obviously a good amount of skill that can go into it but you're a perfect example of people who think that if they do well it's all because of their own skill and there was no luck involved just like the poker players who think that every hand they win was based on their skill but when they took a bad beat the other player always got lucky and sucked out Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Forty Niner Homer 3 Posted November 21, 2014 Someone let me know how to develop the skill to play against a bad performing team each week. Someone let me know how to develop the skill to not have any of my players beat their kid with a stick Someone let me know how to develop the skill to get placed in the easy division so I can win it rather than hoping to make a wildcard in the tougher division Someone let me know how to develop the skill to get a good draft slot in redraft leagues Someone let me know how to develop the skill to not have my QBs team defense score a bunch of TDs leading to a blowout so he ends up sitting out the 4th quarter Someone let me know how to develop the skill to not have a player get hurt in the first quarter Someone let me know how to control the weather at the stadiums my players are at Someone let me know how to develop the skill to not have multiple players get hurt in the same game Someone let me know the skill to have my WR not get mugged in the endzone robbed of an easy TD so that my opponents RB doesn't get the 1 yard vulching TD I need to work on these skills. ⬆me too murph ! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Giants Fan 85 Posted November 22, 2014 It helps if you can predict the future. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phil Simms 11 127 Posted November 22, 2014 Lots of luck involved. Especially if you play in a league with other experienced players. I have used my FF skill to make sure my name is selected to get the 11th pick in the draft the last 4 years. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
phillygrrl08 139 Posted November 22, 2014 I only considered the luck factor in redraft leagues. I haven't played in a dynasty league, but I imagine there is more strategy and skill involved due to the long term implications of the draft picks. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tigeru 65 Posted November 22, 2014 Drafting Luck in the 6th round was all skill Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jdon 28 Posted November 22, 2014 I agree. In my dynasty leagues, it's the same 4 of us owners in the playoffs year after year. Only the guys not making the playoffs call it luck. In my redraft leagues, I am having the worst year of my fantasy life and STILL will not call it luck. I drafted poorly and see the flaws in how I did so. It wasn't an "unlucky" draft, it was faulty reasoning and logic on my part in drafting who I did. Exactly. However, injuries, or what happened with ADP this year can tremendously effect the fate of a team... but even that can be mitigated by an active owner who works the wiaver wire and trades for value. jdon Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
