I am Now A Firm Believer in Zero RB Theory

[Quickolas1 80]

WR WR is the only way. RB was a minefield in rnd 1-2 like iv never seen. Completely worthless. Waiting on guys like Lat and Doug and getting Julio/ODB early was the only way.

I don't understand why everything you post has to be an absolute. If you took Dez/Cobb, you wouldn't be saying WR/WR is the only way to go.

 

"It's all luck."

"Every fantasy playoff game is 100% luck."

 

More absolutes... which are of course not true.

 

The more knowledable you are ranging from player value to matchups to waiver wire decisions to mastering your setup/scoring to knowing your fellow owners to working them over in trades, etc etc...

 

...your chances increase.

 

It's a game with stats and probabilities.

If you want a guarantee, don't play. You definitely won't win.

[tanatastic 2,061]

I don't understand why everything you post has to be an absolute. If you took Dez/Cobb, you wouldn't be saying WR/WR is the only way to go.

 

Obviously it doesnt mean wr wr was infallible. I just mean it was the clear path to victory this year assuming you hit on some of your draft picks. But thats the same with every strategy. Im just assuming most leagues top seeds will be wr wr success stories. I wont say champions because the champion is completely random among the playoff teams. But the top seeds had great seasons so they are a better examples for success blueprint. Obviously everything im saying is complete conjecture or opinion, dont take it like im writing the ten commandments in stone bro. Im just a loudmouth spewing crap on a message board.

[killersquids 3]

The bolded is blatantly false and completely subjective. Theres 3 tiers of skilled player in every FF league at very most. Ill go over them now. This is hard fact, set in stone.

 

Top tier- Anyone who watches football, goes on message boards and knows advanced draft theory and how to implement them. Knows how to play the ww and make informed trades/starts/sits. 99% of FFtoday members.

 

Middle tier- Guys who kind of know some of that stuff but mostly just know who Tom Brady is and that Jerry Rice was a good player. Casual fan, might forget to set his lineup for thursday games and largely ignores the WW. Will pick up guys off FA every once in awhile.

 

Taco tier- They are just there because the draft is fun and thats the extent of their involvement. they think FF ends at the draft and you have to teach them how to set their lineup. Making roster moves is like algebra to them and they cant be bothered and dont know football enough even if they did.

 

Most money leagues are going to be made up of 7-8 top tier, 1-2 middle tier and 1-2 taco tier. If you are in a league with all top tier, its 100% luck. Everyone knows the game and its just a matter of who got players that werent busts and whos players score higher each week. There is no "one guy is more skilled". No, everyone knows their football and knows how to draft so its just friendly competition and let the best man win and have fun. No competetive edge to be found besides who was higher on the WW when the big injury happened, thats it. Your delusional if you think theres more to it than that. you can listen to all the podcasts and articles you want, you can be beaten every week. Maybe its 160-59 or maybe its 70-65, you can be beaten.

 

So you believe that if you have a league where all members are in Tier 1, then it is 100% luck? I would say that it's significantly more luck than skill, but to say 100% luck is simply false. Some Tier 1 owners are simply better than other Tier 1 owners....over the long term. This is especially true in an auction league. In any one given season, anything can happen, but over the long term, the better owners make the playoffs more frequently, and subsequently win more championships.

 

Bottom line for me in this discussion: not all Tier 1 owners have the same skill level. Some Tier 1 owners are better than others.

[tanatastic 2,061]

I would say that it's significantly more luck than skill, but to say 100% luck is simply false.

Agreed. Ill take it, Deal.

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

I don't understand why everything you post has to be an absolute. If you took Dez/Cobb, you wouldn't be saying WR/WR is the only way to go.

 

To be fair, I took Graham/Dez/Cobb/Fitz last year and had a wonderful season. (PPR)

 

This year out of the 12th spot I went Dez / Hill / Edelman / Evans / Watkins / Woodhead (who I later flipped for Landry following Dez's injury and Watkin's slow start). In both years those WR serve as a foundation with their incredible consistency. I really only need 10 points from each RB to be competitive – anything beyond that is a bonus. (These are Ivory and Duke Johnson Darren McFadden this year.) As such, for the first third of the fantasy season I was able to offset Hill's inconsistency and poor value by the aforementioned WR.

 

Obviously the argument can be made that one could just as easily hit on two (or even three) RB in the first three rounds, but the odds of doing so YOY are far lower (particularly if you have an early to middle round pick) then the WR/WR/RB or WR approach. The amount of 'misses' on the top 15 RB versus 15 WR over the past several years is glaring. I've seen far more teams salvaged and successful due to a high upside late round RB pick (Jeremy Hill last season for me – Davonta Freeman for lucky owners this season) then those who draft 3 RB in the first 4 rounds.

 

Most weeks these owners will be flipping a coin on their cache of inconsistent WR or chasing points for the position out of the waiver. While it's a common belief that RB is a scarce position (very true for standard formats), there are typically players available (in leagues without absurd benches) that have decent floors (8+ points) week over week (The Riddick's, McCluster's and Thompson's). The hesitancy to start these non-brand name players when the opportunity to upgrade at WR or elsewhere via the draft or trade is strange.

 

The opposite can not be said for WR. The FA pool is typically overflowing with players who hover in the 4 or 5 target range or those who have (unpredictable) 20 point scoring variances week over week. As Doug Orth preaches – championships are about consistency. A 200 point player who averages about 12 points a week will help you win more then a player who's totals vary by 10 to 15 week over week. If you calculate that a week to week average of 115 points would put you in the 75th percentile in your league over the course of a season (an exercise I'm shocked most owners in recurring leagues never perform...) backing into that number with role-players at RB, or even streaming them (and stashing high-upside / non starter / potential RB1 types) is far easier than chasing points at WR where it's uncommon for a backup to assume the same workload or production as an injured starter. I can count on one hand how many times this has happened in the past 3 seasons (we may soon see it with Edelman to Amendola – TBD). This has happened at the RB position 5 times in the past 3 weeks alone.

 

There's a reason why no one stashes backup WR or handcuffs their WR1 in most leagues. The drop off in production from the starter to the next player up is so significant and the options available in FA for similar players with very low week to week scoring consistency are vast. This season we've seen it with San Diego, Chicago, Baltimore, Green Bay, Atlanta, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Indy and Ten. It seems every week a WR is on the suggested waiver pickup for one of these teams whose WR1 is missing. How many of these owners are stoked about starting one of these on a weekly basis? I challenge you to name a single WR this season who was available in FA who you would rather have over one of the top 15 WR at the draft or a new RB1's and 2's we've seen. Diggs? Hurns? I'll concede the point on Hurns, but he likely came fairly cheap – much more so then Diggs. Yet he's the 8th highest scoring PPR WR and Diggs has run out back to back duds (and is also set to face arguably the top 3 CB in football back to back to back...) In other words through 10 weeks there has been one consistent WR who was available as a FA that an owner can start week over week with confidence.

 

I can't remember the last time people were falling all over themselves to use a #1 waiver on a WR. Those players might as well be unicorns. Even if you completely hit on RB/RB, the chances of an opponent obtaining a RB with similar statistics as your 1st and 2nd round picks during the course of a season are FAR greater then the same occurring for a WR. This in and of itself diminishes the upside of utilizing your early draft equity on a player and position that has a higher historical instance of injury and not underperforming their draft value. You're overpaying for a player and position for which a comp will almost certainly be available to you during the season.

 

Consider this. How many times have you seen an owner win a championship with the same RB they drafted in rounds 1 and 2. (I've had this happen maybe once in 15 years – 2012 when I went Forte, Lynch and Peterson coming off the ACL. This was maybe my greatest team ever. It also featured Wes Welker, Antonio Brown and pre-shooting Aaron Hernandez...I wen't 8-5 but gutted out a Championship.) Put simply, every year the inevitable RB1 FA options available for owners, particularly those who manage their waiver position / FA $ well, will historically greatly exceed those at WR. FA WR (typically WR2 at best – most finding themselves as 3 and 4's) will usually come without the use of a waiver, or in many cases with a mid to late one. Thus allowing teams in possession of two or three top tier WR the ability to hold their waiver for the inevitable RB1's and target the myriad of aforementioned non brand name, yet consistent RB 3 and 4's available in FA.

 

Historically, RB's suffer more then 2 times the amount of injuries as WR over the course of a season.

 

It should also be mentioned that any fantasy expert worth their sand will be rather accurate (upwards of 60%-70% – sometimes more) with their do not draft lists or injury risk players prior to the season. (FFToday does this very well – in particular Doug Orth's incredible rankings which factor in this inherent risk) This plays both into the argument for zero RB, as well as the rather polarizing 'skill' versus 'luck' debate. By mitigating the risk involved in your player selection based on the probability of injury (using actual data) you can lower the opportunity cost of rostering a player who will be net zero sooner then later versus one who at worst will contribute in some capacity. More importantly, the loss of a bench spot for a routinely injured player, or one you're constantly awaiting game status for on Sunday – versus rostering a handcuff or player with huge upside is a season killer.

[Quickolas1 80]

To be fair, I took Graham/Dez/Cobb/Fitz last year and had a wonderful season. (PPR)

You didn't need to say 'to be fair'... since you're agreeing with me that WR/WR is not the only way to go (Graham is TE).

 

There are infinite examples. Someone who took AP or Le'Veon (and DeAngelo later), AJ Green and D.Hopkins rds 1-3 are sitting pretty right now. And people will continue to take stud RB early in round 1. In fact I like RB-WR-WR-WR or close to it if picking early.

 

The point is you need value above replacement (some positions turnover more than others) and to avoid injury/bust. WR/WR is one possible way.

 

Zero RB was viable 20 years ago the first time I saw someone do it...

...taking Carl Pickens and Herman Moore at picks 1.12 and 2.01.

It's really not a new idea. Better now in so many PPR league's and with NFL passing stats? Sure.

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

You didn't need to say 'to be fair'... since you're agreeing with me that WR/WR is not the only way to go (Graham is TE).

 

I think you're splitting hairs.

 

TE/WR/WR/WR or the inverse with say, Greg Olsen is derived from the same principle as a WR only heavy first 3 or 4 rounds. In fact, had Gronk not gone 11th in my league, I would have probably gone Gronk/Dez/Edelman/Evans. I'm still taking the same steps to avoid overpaying for RB early on and opting to draft the best available forecasted points per snap player available regardless of position. In PPR leagues these are historically wide receivers.

[redsrback 30]

Really wrath your problem is you need to stop playing fantasy football with your kids. 12 hole and you land Dez, Hill, Edelman, Evans, and Watkins. If I read another post of yours then shame on me.

[thewrathofkuhn 40]

Really wrath your problem is you need to stop playing fantasy football with your kids. 12 hole and you land Dez, Hill, Edelman, Evans, and Watkins. If I read another post of yours then shame on me.

 

PPR ADP first week of Sept.:

 

Dez Bryant (8th), / mine 12th, a draft deviation of +4

 

Jeremy Hill (16th) / mine 13th, deviation of -3

 

Julian Edelman (42nd) / mine 36th, deviation of -6 (I reached!)

 

Mike Evans (26th) / mine 37th, deviation of +11

A pick less then a round late does not give you ammunition to compare my league mates to children – this happens in every draft.

 

Sammy Watkins (52nd) / mine 60th, deviation of +8

This and Evans can be attributed to benefiting from (and avoiding) the all too common 4th and early 5th round RB, TE and QB runs. I should add that Keenan Allen and Jarvis Landry were the two picks preceding this hitting their ADP almost on the nose. The former was drastically outplaying Watkins prior to injury, and the latter has been one of the most consistent WR this season. By comparison Watkins, for all intents and purposes has been a disappointment. Would my league be any better had I picked either of them?

 

The overall ADP draft deviation of my first 5 picks versus the norm was +14. A strong number indeed – but certainly not worth being a jerk or making a mockery of my league.

[posty 2,296]

Jesus... Someone is taking this "game" way to seriously...

[SaintsInDome2006 128]

I'm a little surprised to pop in here and see a lot of discussion about luck vs skill. If you think it is luck you don't need to be on this board or site because you don't need to share information because information implies skill is involved. I have leagues where I have won 4 out of 5 or 6 years, and others on here have done that too. You can't win multiple leagues involving 12 owners and 15-20 players over 16 weeks based on the moving parts of 32 NFL teams with 55 players each themselves playing over 16 weeks 66-80% of the time relying on luck, and especially not when those owners are motivated by $$$ to be active.

[SaintsInDome2006 128]

I see some really good WR combos here but I don't see many posts about what RBs people are carrying right now as a result of zero RB. The severe weakness in RB this year isn't an argument for avoiding RBs in the draft, it just accentuates the need to pick the right RBs and also handcuff. The key is to own a team running game. Most if these great RBs maybe with a few exceptions are part of game plans or offensive philosophies which favor RB success, or they play behind great offensive lines that do. If you handcuffed West, Langford, Deangelo, Starks McFadden then you've enjoyed goid to great RB1 production all year long.

[redsrback 30]

I see some really good WR combos here but I don't see many posts about what RBs people are carrying right now as a result of zero RB. The severe weakness in RB this year isn't an argument for avoiding RBs in the draft, it just accentuates the need to pick the right RBs and also handcuff. The key is to own a team running game. Most if these great RBs maybe with a few exceptions are part of game plans or offensive philosophies which favor RB success, or they play behind great offensive lines that do. If you handcuffed West, Langford, Deangelo, Starks McFadden then you've enjoyed goid to great RB1 production all year long.

My first 2 picks wasn't the greatest with injuries affecting them 1 way or another. Antonio brown and Alshon Jeffery. I backed it with J. Stewart, C.Ivory, and L. Murray. Not the best backs but better than average. Good health and I should continue with my success in this 12 team league. As for the RBs you mentioned only 1 would of been handcuffed and that is Deangelo. Possibly Starks but I cant see many giving up a draft position to draft him.

[Magnificent Bastard 190]

I see some really good WR combos here but I don't see many posts about what RBs people are carrying right now as a result of zero RB. The severe weakness in RB this year isn't an argument for avoiding RBs in the draft, it just accentuates the need to pick the right RBs and also handcuff. The key is to own a team running game. Most if these great RBs maybe with a few exceptions are part of game plans or offensive philosophies which favor RB success, or they play behind great offensive lines that do. If you handcuffed West, Langford, Deangelo, Starks McFadden then you've enjoyed goid to great RB1 production all year long.

I love when a guy says things like "accentuates the need to pick the right running backs". Ya think? Next year, can you tell us who are the right RB's, before we pick? It's some skill and some luck. Deal with it.

[BoxFullofJoel 3]

 

 

To be fair, I took Graham/Dez/Cobb/Fitz last year and had a wonderful season. (PPR)

 

This year out of the 12th spot I went Dez / Hill / Edelman / Evans / Watkins / Woodhead (who I later flipped for Landry following Dez's injury and Watkin's slow start). In both years those WR serve as a foundation with their incredible consistency. I really only need 10 points from each RB to be competitive – anything beyond that is a bonus. (These are Ivory and Duke Johnson Darren McFadden this year.) As such, for the first third of the fantasy season I was able to offset Hill's inconsistency and poor value by the aforementioned WR.

 

Obviously the argument can be made that one could just as easily hit on two (or even three) RB in the first three rounds, but the odds of doing so YOY are far lower (particularly if you have an early to middle round pick) then the WR/WR/RB or WR approach. The amount of 'misses' on the top 15 RB versus 15 WR over the past several years is glaring. I've seen far more teams salvaged and successful due to a high upside late round RB pick (Jeremy Hill last season for me – Davonta Freeman for lucky owners this season) then those who draft 3 RB in the first 4 rounds.

 

Most weeks these owners will be flipping a coin on their cache of inconsistent WR or chasing points for the position out of the waiver. While it's a common belief that RB is a scarce position (very true for standard formats), there are typically players available (in leagues without absurd benches) that have decent floors (8+ points) week over week (The Riddick's, McCluster's and Thompson's). The hesitancy to start these non-brand name players when the opportunity to upgrade at WR or elsewhere via the draft or trade is strange.

 

The opposite can not be said for WR. The FA pool is typically overflowing with players who hover in the 4 or 5 target range or those who have (unpredictable) 20 point scoring variances week over week. As Doug Orth preaches – championships are about consistency. A 200 point player who averages about 12 points a week will help you win more then a player who's totals vary by 10 to 15 week over week. If you calculate that a week to week average of 115 points would put you in the 75th percentile in your league over the course of a season (an exercise I'm shocked most owners in recurring leagues never perform...) backing into that number with role-players at RB, or even streaming them (and stashing high-upside / non starter / potential RB1 types) is far easier than chasing points at WR where it's uncommon for a backup to assume the same workload or production as an injured starter. I can count on one hand how many times this has happened in the past 3 seasons (we may soon see it with Edelman to Amendola – TBD). This has happened at the RB position 5 times in the past 3 weeks alone.

 

There's a reason why no one stashes backup WR or handcuffs their WR1 in most leagues. The drop off in production from the starter to the next player up is so significant and the options available in FA for similar players with very low week to week scoring consistency are vast. This season we've seen it with San Diego, Chicago, Baltimore, Green Bay, Atlanta, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Indy and Ten. It seems every week a WR is on the suggested waiver pickup for one of these teams whose WR1 is missing. How many of these owners are stoked about starting one of these on a weekly basis? I challenge you to name a single WR this season who was available in FA who you would rather have over one of the top 15 WR at the draft or a new RB1's and 2's we've seen. Diggs? Hurns? I'll concede the point on Hurns, but he likely came fairly cheap – much more so then Diggs. Yet he's the 8th highest scoring PPR WR and Diggs has run out back to back duds (and is also set to face arguably the top 3 CB in football back to back to back...) In other words through 10 weeks there has been one consistent WR who was available as a FA that an owner can start week over week with confidence.

 

I can't remember the last time people were falling all over themselves to use a #1 waiver on a WR. Those players might as well be unicorns. Even if you completely hit on RB/RB, the chances of an opponent obtaining a RB with similar statistics as your 1st and 2nd round picks during the course of a season are FAR greater then the same occurring for a WR. This in and of itself diminishes the upside of utilizing your early draft equity on a player and position that has a higher historical instance of injury and not underperforming their draft value. You're overpaying for a player and position for which a comp will almost certainly be available to you during the season.

 

Consider this. How many times have you seen an owner win a championship with the same RB they drafted in rounds 1 and 2. (I've had this happen maybe once in 15 years – 2012 when I went Forte, Lynch and Peterson coming off the ACL. This was maybe my greatest team ever. It also featured Wes Welker, Antonio Brown and pre-shooting Aaron Hernandez...I wen't 8-5 but gutted out a Championship.) Put simply, every year the inevitable RB1 FA options available for owners, particularly those who manage their waiver position / FA $ well, will historically greatly exceed those at WR. FA WR (typically WR2 at best – most finding themselves as 3 and 4's) will usually come without the use of a waiver, or in many cases with a mid to late one. Thus allowing teams in possession of two or three top tier WR the ability to hold their waiver for the inevitable RB1's and target the myriad of aforementioned non brand name, yet consistent RB 3 and 4's available in FA.

 

Historically, RB's suffer more then 2 times the amount of injuries as WR over the course of a season.

 

It should also be mentioned that any fantasy expert worth their sand will be rather accurate (upwards of 60%-70% – sometimes more) with their do not draft lists or injury risk players prior to the season. (FFToday does this very well – in particular Doug Orth's incredible rankings which factor in this inherent risk) This plays both into the argument for zero RB, as well as the rather polarizing 'skill' versus 'luck' debate. By mitigating the risk involved in your player selection based on the probability of injury (using actual data) you can lower the opportunity cost of rostering a player who will be net zero sooner then later versus one who at worst will contribute in some capacity. More importantly, the loss of a bench spot for a routinely injured player, or one you're constantly awaiting game status for on Sunday – versus rostering a handcuff or player with huge upside is a season killer.

 

Great posts, that is my theory also

[posty 2,296]

I'm a little surprised to pop in here and see a lot of discussion about luck vs skill. If you think it is luck you don't need to be on this board or site because you don't need to share information because information implies skill is involved. I have leagues where I have won 4 out of 5 or 6 years, and others on here have done that too. You can't win multiple leagues involving 12 owners and 15-20 players over 16 weeks based on the moving parts of 32 NFL teams with 55 players each themselves playing over 16 weeks 66-80% of the time relying on luck, and especially not when those owners are motivated by $$$ to be active.

[BunnysBastatrds 1,920]

Just got finished reading the Tuesday Morning buzz column. They have Brown, OBJ, and Hopkins projected to all go in the first round next year. It'll be fun at next years draft to remind everybody that I had all three on my team this year.

[azmartone 1]

I wish people would go zero RB in my league. I would have way better odds at hitting the #1RB, If you think u can skip rb's 1st 3 rounds then ur nuts. A. Brown and OBJ do not guarantee a win. A. Brown scored 6 and obj was suspended for the main game. Luck is deff the main aspect to the game, but there is still strategy involved. Waiver wire and planning for playoffs etc. Of course you can never guarantee what a player is going to do any givin week, but have strategies would deff help with that. I went rb first 2 rounds then wr, aven lost jamaal charles and still won. I think were all just sad its over, and prey people read your post and go with a zero rb strategy.

[BunnysBastatrds 1,920]

I wish people would go zero RB in my league. I would have way better odds at hitting the #1RB, If you think u can skip rb's 1st 3 rounds then ur nuts. A. Brown and OBJ do not guarantee a win. A. Brown scored 6 and obj was suspended for the main game. Luck is deff the main aspect to the game, but there is still strategy involved. Waiver wire and planning for playoffs etc. Of course you can never guarantee what a player is going to do any givin week, but have strategies would deff help with that. I went rb first 2 rounds then wr, aven lost jamaal charles and still won. I think were all just sad its over, and prey people read your post and go with a zero rb strategy.

 

 

I had three of the top four ranked WR's every week when they weren't on a bye. And when they were, I had Decker to fill in for them. In my league, only three RB's scored 200 or more points. Freeman, Peterson, and Williams. Only one was drafted in the first round. And the other two were mid to late round picks. There were eleven WR's who scored 200 or more points. RB is not nearly as important as was five years ago. There were only a handful of RB's that ran for 1000. But there were quite a few WR's who caught fo 1000+. Add in PFR leagues and it's a no brainer.

[murf74 461]

Best available regardless of position just stack roster full of above the line guys

[azmartone 1]

 

 

I had three of the top four ranked WR's every week when they weren't on a bye. And when they were, I had Decker to fill in for them. In my league, only three RB's scored 200 or more points. Freeman, Peterson, and Williams. Only one was drafted in the first round. And the other two were mid to late round picks. There were eleven WR's who scored 200 or more points. RB is not nearly as important as was five years ago. There were only a handful of RB's that ran for 1000. But there were quite a few WR's who caught fo 1000+. Add in PFR leagues and it's a no brainer.

And what you said make RB's more valuable, if there are 12 wr's with 200 plus points why grab one quick? I would try getting the 1 rb that does score over 200. Im sure if Charles and Bell did not get injured they would deff be top 5. Many people also over payed for player like Lacy, Hill, Murray, Anderson. Im not saying wr's are worthless, Just not worth as much as a rb. Every year you can't say screw running backs and grab freeman, gurley in the 5th round and all of a sudden u have 2 top 10 rb's. Every year is diff and if we dont see as much injuries next year everyone will be saying "man im loading up on rb's next year"

[BunnysBastatrds 1,920]

And what you said make RB's more valuable, if there are 12 wr's with 200 plus points why grab one quick? I would try getting the 1 rb that does score over 200. Im sure if Charles and Bell did not get injured they would deff be top 5. Many people also over payed for player like Lacy, Hill, Murray, Anderson. Im not saying wr's are worthless, Just not worth as much as a rb. Every year you can't say screw running backs and grab freeman, gurley in the 5th round and all of a sudden u have 2 top 10 rb's. Every year is diff and if we dont see as much injuries next year everyone will be saying "man im loading up on rb's next year"

 

 

Owning three of the top ten WR's in a PPR league is more valuable than owning two top ten RB's. You can start three WR's (most leagues) and only two RB's. Once you get past the top ten RB's, they are all average. I'll take three top ten WR's, like I did this year, and take a few average RB's and hope for a good WW RB. It worked for me. Points for the year, five-points for the week, and the championship.

[jimaveli 119]

The main way to be screwed in fantasy is having injuries later in the season once many of the free agents are locked up. That IS generally a luck thing. You can survive most early season issues if you're on top of things.

 

And zoomed out, more informed and involved fantasy will generally outdo their 'lesser' opponents who depend on early round messiah players and accidental blowup players over time. League settings play a big role in that too.

[jimaveli 119]

As for zero rb...

 

Everyone should be aiming to lower their risk early in the draft, maximize their value in midrounds, and get all of the remaining '$ on the table' players later in the drafts. This also involves waiting as long as you can until drafting a top 5-capable qb. Think unwanted vet or running qb like Brees, Eli, or whoever is less loved out of Cam and Russell. Don't think bad qb like Alex Smith or Tanny or someone like that who can mess up and be qb 17.

 

With the way the league is going, taking volume-heavy wrs on teams with good team outlook, decent qbs and good schedules is far more safe than hitching your wagon any rb who don't have at least 2 of the 3 main rb roles tied up.

 

The 3 roles...early down role, goal line / bunny td recipient role, and dude who blocks and catches passes on passing downs. There's only a handful of guys who have two roles. Freeman had all 3 this year, so he was the one special guy this year until David Johnson emerged late.

 

Teams that can't stay out of passing situations are goldmines for the woodhead guy who basically only catches passes. Ie: Theo Riddick is the master of that role right now.

 

Riddick!? Freeman!? Wth!?

 

So yes, saying 'Julio Jones' in your first round and finding rbs sometime later is generally going to yield better results than saying 'ummm...Eddy Lacy..please don't be fat, hurt, or late to curfews' and hoping to live off of Alshon or AJ as your #1wr.

 

That doesn't mean get stuck with a 5th rounder as your #1 rb and then be totally screwed at the position if you get it wrong.

 

I'm a much bigger fan of the rb2bc plan. Ie: get one back that you really like in the first 3 or 4 rounds at the best value possible, then take shots at 3-6 other dudes through the rest of the draft...again, at the best value possible. Then, assume that you'll be smart and/or lucky enough to get at least one right.

 

With that, you need at least 2 major hits at wr to cover for you while you figure out your rb situation...who to start, who to cut bait on, who to handcuff, who wait on, who to try to trade, etcetera. So, your first round wr has to finish top 5 and your 2nd wr has to be top 10-ish.

 

This year I had two guys as hopeful rb1s. Cja and Frank Gore. Oops. Good thing one of my 'others' was Douglas Martin. But I also tried Abdullah, Fred jax, and Artis-Payne. Oops. I also pickup up Freeman early on. Some other time for what I did with Freeman...there has to be a trades lost post at some point...

[Herbivore 905]

This was pretty much my idea for the 12 Geeks draft. I was at 12, so thought I had to minimize risk.

 

eta..as in what jimaveli said

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

BunnysBastatrds, on 29 Dec 2015 - 2:43 PM, said:

Just got finished reading the Tuesday Morning buzz column. They have Brown, OBJ, and Hopkins projected to all go in the first round next year. It'll be fun at next years draft to remind everybody that I had all three on my team this year.

I had 4 on my team (Hopkins, AJ Green, Gronk and Cam). Maybe that is why I won it all.

[PJ_Abyss 0]

Depends on what type of league I am in. If I'm in a ppr league then yes I'm taking a WR. Standard league I'm taking a RB. All of that also depends on who's available at that time too

[jimaveli 119]

I just don't know how folks were getting odb and brown on the same team...especially in ppr leagues.

 

There's could/should be 5 wrs off the board in the first round in lots of leagues next year..especially ppr. Nuk, brown, Julio, odb, and pick a guy. DT, dez, and Calvin are gonna fall a bit. Calvin probably won't. And Brandon Marshall will go back to being a 2nd-ish rounder along with AJ Green getting snatch up again. And I'm thinking folks jump all onto Jordy too if he's back by camp/looking spry. Allen Robinson...the cheese is gonna get taken on him as well. There's also Landry and Edelman as the 'high catch floor' guys. Aka wrs are gonna be coming off the board like crazy.

[Magnificent Bastard 190]

There are no more strategys. You could in years past go against the grain and go zero RB. Now everyone will be grabbing at least one WR early. Gronk, a TE goes in the first and no one blinks an eye. Unthinkable years ago. It's best player available for the foreseeable future, unless the NFL changes.

[jimaveli 119]

Some version of vbd is what folks are doing. It just gets called different things. I hate the trap of a trend like zero rb. It's a false get out of thinking during the draft free card.

 

This year, there were several midround wrs who needed to be drafted. Zero rb folks missed out on a shot at all of those dudes since they drafted themselves into a corner. And a cat like Jordan Matthews or old ass Andre Johnson was no more safe than SSS, Larry Fitz, or John Brown but they were going 4-7 rounds earlier. Add in lotto guys like Marty Bryant and it made no sense to go into the mid rounds holding 4 wrs. But noooo...some folks had to take the cheese on a 'hot new trend' just because a few folks wrote about it.

 

There's no tricks to being prepped for a draft. Just prep for the draft and then do what makes sense based on good prep. If that's gronk and 3 wrs to start a draft because you love the rbs from rounds 5-7, go ahead. If you think it's taking last year's #1 qb in the first round, you're wrong, you're only taking the piece of the past that'll screw you in the future, and you're not really prepped...haha.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I really hope everyone goes zero rb so i can draft david johnson and leveon bell

[redsrback 30]

Just look at the guys you picked up off of waivers that became horses for you. They aren't WRs that lasted very long. Pick the best WRs in first 2 rounds and save a lot of room for handcuffs and number 2 RBs. Maybe you claim a RB which you know will get carries simply because its all they have for a run game. I got a kick out of 1 league where we have pick-ups every 4 weeks and the guy with number 1 pick-up took Stephon Diggs over Charcandrick West. I hope to see the guy next year bragging how Kamar Aiken was a gr8 pick-up for him.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Just look at the guys you picked up off of waivers that became horses for you. They aren't WRs that lasted very long. Pick the best WRs in first 2 rounds and save a lot of room for handcuffs and number 2 RBs. Maybe you claim a RB which you know will get carries simply because its all they have for a run game. I got a kick out of 1 league where we have pick-ups every 4 weeks and the guy with number 1 pick-up took Stephon Diggs over Charcandrick West. I hope to see the guy next year Aiken was a gr8 pick-up for him.

[Magnificent Bastard 190]

Zero RB won't be so great if everyone starts doing it. And almost everyone will.

[DaBeerz 88]

I think after almost 15 years of obsessive FF I'm getting burned out on it. I've tried every draft strategy (RB/RB, WR/WR, QB/RB, QB/WR, Best Available Player), but it's still mostly luck. That said, I don't think I will bother trying to hit a top RB in the first round anymore as more often than not they're a bust. There seems to be more higher tier WR to go around.

 

I research before drafts and generally draft well. I work the WW all the time. I read start/sit projections from multiple sources. I can generally get into the playoffs every year.

 

Then inevitably, my team shits the bed in R1 while the other team blows up with some no name player.

 

FF is mostly luck really. You win week in week out enough to get in, but after that it's all one and done lucky H2H matchups. That's frustrating, especially if you lose to one of those teams with a relatively inactive owner who backdoor scraped their way into the playoffs.

[petekrum 20]

God I'm tired of hearing FF is mostly luck. There is a large measure of luck due to the one and done nature of the playoffs, but the skill comes in getting yourself to those playoffs year after year. Look at your leagues. In mine it's amazing how some teams almost always make the playoffs while some teams almost never do.

[tanatastic 2,061]

God I'm tired of hearing FF is mostly luck. There is a large measure of luck due to the one and done nature of the playoffs, but the skill comes in getting yourself to those playoffs year after year. Look at your leagues. In mine it's amazing how some teams almost always make the playoffs while some teams almost never do.

Weve gone over it to death. In a field of casuals where its Betty from accounting, clueless Larry and his dipshat brother and then a few sharks, the cream will rise to the top. The hardcore will scour the wire, make the moves every week while Betty just picks up who is cutest or has a funny name. They arent up at 9:59 waiting for the free agents to click in so they can get the first ones after waivers clear. But if the league is 10-12 sharks or all devoted owners, its about 90% luck or more. Who is on the wire in the crucial week, who got hurt, who got a penalty, missed tackle, blown coverage, tuck rule, phantom PI, all the variables that cant be scouted or assessed. You lose 78-80 one week then win 156-140 the next. Best to treat it for what it is, a fun hobby meant to stir competition and friendly rivalry. Its not a test of devotion or rewarding to those who do the most work. Your Aunt Mildred prob hoisted the trophy this year because she Took Brady and Decker rnd 1-2 since they are the hottest players. Everyone laughed im sure but ol Milly was laughing at the end wasnt she.

[ralphster 274]

Every year it's something different; Berry pushing to draft TEs early a few years back, VBD, early QB, BPA, etc. The new flavor is zero rb. None of them work all the time. You've still got to avoid bust picks early and hit on multiple mid to late picks and/or work the wire in season to make the dance. Skill gets you a leg up to make the playoffs and luck determines things from there.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Every year it's something different; Berry pushing to draft TEs early a few years back, VBD, early QB, BPA, etc. The new flavor is zero rb. None of them work all the time. You've still got to avoid bust picks early and hit on multiple mid to late picks and/or work the wire in season to make the dance. Skill gets you a leg up to make the playoffs and luck determines things from there.

I like everything said here. Perfectly put. This year 7 of the top 10 rbs will produce and the paradigm will shift back the other way. ZRB was sweet unless it wasnt and you got Dez, Thomas etc. In the end its as you said, luckily not drafting busts or injured guys and staying dutiful on the wire.

[McBain 13]

Interesting stats I just read:

 

1. Only seven players rushed for more than 1,000 yards this year. Just nine years ago, the 1,000-yard club included 23 runners and the lowest total in the past 15 years had been 13. That seven is the fewest number since 1991, when Emmitt Smith led the league with 1,563 yards and Barry Sanders, Thurman Thomas, Rodney Hampton, Earnest Byner, Gaston Green and Christian Okoye also hit the mark. (Oddly, that was the year Thomas won the MVP despite finishing third in rushing yards.) Peterson’s 1,485 was also the second-lowest winning total since ’90. Only LaDanian Tomlinson’s 1,474 yards in 2007 was lower.

 

2. The top 10 rushers in the NFL in 2015, along with their average preseason fantasy football draft rank on ESPN:

1) Adrian Peterson, No. 3
2) Doug Martin, No. 97
3) Todd Gurley, No. 60
4) Darren McFadden, No. 116
5) Chris Ivory, No. 64
6) Latavius Murray, No. 62
7) Devonta Freeman, No. 112
8)Jonathan Stewart, No. 51
9) Frank Gore, No. 48
10) DeAngelo Williams, No. 121

3. The amount of receivers in the 1,000 club: 26. That’s the most since at least 2002 (the last year for which I could find data).