Is it time to get out of the market?

[bandrus1 413]

still watching AMC fall like crazy.. feels like could be a lottery ticket

[Cdub100 3,381]

Fock bought more today.

CCL $8.10

RCL $26.10

 

[Hardcore troubadour 12,652]

So people aren’t going to go to the movies but they will go on a cruise. Ok. 

[Cdub100 3,381]

Just now, Hardcore troubadour said:

So people aren’t going to go to the movies but they will go on a cruise. Ok. 

Do you think the cruise industry is dead and never coming back?

[Hardcore troubadour 12,652]

7 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

Do you think the cruise industry is dead and never coming back?

I think there will be a severe contraction at best. You aren’t going to see the volume that once was. And they will probably have to change the way they do business going forward. Charging an arm and a leg for booze isn’t going to work anymore. Never mind the health measures they are going to have to undertake and the probable  regulations port cities in developed countries will bring about. Dead? No. But a lot less of them.  A lot. Ever see how many of them are in FT. Lauderdale? 

[Cdub100 3,381]

38 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

I think there will be a severe contraction at best. You aren’t going to see the volume that once was. And they will probably have to change the way they do business going forward. Charging an arm and a leg for booze isn’t going to work anymore. Never mind the health measures they are going to have to undertake and the probable  regulations port cities in developed countries will bring about. Dead? No. But a lot less of them.  A lot. Ever see how many of them are in FT. Lauderdale? 

I guess we will have to disagree. I think cruising offers people some of the best value when it comes to vacations. People really love cruising and that's not going to change. Especially when people either get sick and recover or a vaccine is available. Sure the smaller cruise lines might go under, but the big 4 will be just fine.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,652]

2 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

I guess we will have to disagree. I think cruising offers people some of the best value when it comes to vacations. People really love cruising and that's not going to change. Especially when people either get sick and recover or a vaccine is available. Sure the smaller cruise lines might go under, but the big 4 will be just fine.

Supply and demand. There will be too much supply and not enough demand for a while. It’s going to take a little while if it does happen. 

[Cdub100 3,381]

I'm entering the market in my two IRA accounts (Traditional & Roth) I bought 1k in each of the following funds. I will buy $100 in each fund every day. The goal is to set a position and average all the way to the bottom over the next year.

FECGX
FIDELITY SMALL CAP GROWTH INDEX FD
FMDGX
FIDELITY MID CAP GROWTH INDEX FD
FNILX
FIDELITY ZERO LARGE CAP INDEX FUND
FDSCX
FIDELITY STOCK SELECTOR SMALL CAP
FMEIX
FIDELITY MID CAP ENHANCED INDEX FUND
FSPGX
FIDELITY LARGE CAP GROWTH INDEX FUND

[Cdub100 3,381]

3 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Supply and demand. There will be too much supply and not enough demand for a while. It’s going to take a little while if it does happen. 

That's fine and I'm okay with that. I'm long CCL & RCL and have no plans to sell these two for a long time if ever.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,652]

Saw on TV that companies are going to be cutting back 401k contributions. This is just the beginning folks. 

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

25 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Saw on TV that companies are going to be cutting back 401k contributions. This is just the beginning folks. 

Are you talking about company match?  Some companies have a defined company match that is done regardless of business health.  Many others do an optional company match that is not mandatory and only granted if the company chooses to do the match.  While the percentage is defined at the beginning of the year, the company can choose to skip a match if times are tough. 

I would expect it is a little early to know what the impact will be on company match, but it would not be unreasonable to expect that those who have optional matches will be very cautious.  Just like companies with dividends as they may need to retain as much cash as possible to weather the storm. 

Another area to consider is that you may see an impact to mergers and acquisitions.  Some companies will hold off on acquisitions to save cash, while others who have a lot of retained cash can scoop up struggling competitors to gain market share. 

If you look back on history, the companies that are "fit" will get better in a down economy, while those that are "fragile" will falter or even fail.  

[vuduchile 1,941]

2 hours ago, bandrus1 said:

still watching AMC fall like crazy.. feels like could be a lottery ticket

Feels more like death to me.  So many streaming options already.  Big time stars and directors already have deals with the streaming services.  I expect lots more. Gonna be awhile before people are comfortable in a crowd.  

[Cdub100 3,381]

2 minutes ago, vuduchile said:

Feels more like death to me.  So many streaming options already.  Big time stars and directors already have deals with the streaming services.  I expect lots more. Gonna be awhile before people are comfortable in a crowd.  

Theaters had the right idea. They moved away from stadium seating to those big leather chairs and started offering better food and beer etc... The problem they will have is they offer a service I think I can get better at home.

In addition, Disney is squeezing them out by asking for more and more of a cut on ticket sales. It's only a matter of time before Disney says why share the profits when they can keep 100%.

[nobody 2,043]

Trump just solved oil.  He's well on his way to solving covid-19.  Time to buy.

[nobody 2,043]

I don't think the federal government is going to be extremely motivated to help cruise companies that don't pay taxes here, so I wouldn't be surprised if we see some go belly up.

[Hardcore troubadour 12,652]

13 minutes ago, nobody said:

I don't think the federal government is going to be extremely motivated to help cruise companies that don't pay taxes here, so I wouldn't be surprised if we see some go belly up.

Depends on their lobbying 

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

6 hours ago, bandrus1 said:

still watching AMC fall like crazy.. feels like could be a lottery ticket

I am thinking the $5b in debt and the restructuring talks with lenders are a big reason for this. They could be hitting bankruptcy very soon.

[lod001 1,237]

Last chance to get out around S&P 2500.

[mmmmm...beer 691]

On 4/2/2020 at 7:21 AM, bandrus1 said:

still watching AMC fall like crazy.. feels like could be a lottery ticket

Dude it got to <$2 today I think... wow

[Alias Detective 1,179]

AMC look like it’s been a dog for 5 years.  What’s the infatuation?

[bandrus1 413]

9 minutes ago, Alias Detective said:

AMC look like it’s been a dog for 5 years.  What’s the infatuation?

Largest market share in an industry... Like I said it's a lottery ticket. If they somehow survive this it is so low you could get 4xor 5x your money just because they survive 

[Cdub100 3,381]

2 hours ago, bandrus1 said:

Largest market share in an industry... Like I said it's a lottery ticket. If they somehow survive this it is so low you could get 4xor 5x your money just because they survive 

I dunno man it's a lotto ticket that nobody plays any more. I think it's a dead or almost dead industry.

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

3 hours ago, bandrus1 said:

Largest market share in an industry... Like I said it's a lottery ticket. If they somehow survive this it is so low you could get 4xor 5x your money just because they survive 

Sears and Novell are good buys now too.

[Leeson 54]

3 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

Sears and Novell are good buys now too.

You can buy stock in Novell Coronavirus? 

Seems like a guaranteed winner right now.

[mmmmm...beer 691]

You know...  definately something to think about.  Quarentine... pretty much world wide.  Guess what will be in high demand in the next few weeks/months?

Home Pregnancy Tests..

And in the next 8-12 months... prenatal goods, baby clothes, formulas, etc....

High demand, worldwide.

Proctor/Gamble make clear blue easy... shoot PG to rich for my blood.

Newell Brands (NWL) make Graco... baby car seats... cribs...

Sh!t... ABT makes Similac formula!!  They are the same lab company that are making the rapid COVID-19 testing kits!  Thise sneaky bastages are gonna make their money in both enda of this thing!

[TimmySmith 2,782]

Just before the virus hit big, Buffett bought a ton of Delta. So I figure that should be good for 150% return in the next year.

[frank 2,145]

6 hours ago, mmmmm...beer said:

You know...  definately something to think about.  Quarentine... pretty much world wide.  Guess what will be in high demand in the next few weeks/months?

Home Pregnancy Tests..

And in the next 8-12 months... prenatal goods, baby clothes, formulas, etc....

High demand, worldwide.

Proctor/Gamble make clear blue easy... shoot PG to rich for my blood.

Newell Brands (NWL) make Graco... baby car seats... cribs...

Sh!t... ABT makes Similac formula!!  They are the same lab company that are making the rapid COVID-19 testing kits!  Thise sneaky bastages are gonna make their money in both enda of this thing!

Sorry, I’m bored. I’ll try to find something else to do, but the GC wives aren’t going to like it. 

[Leeson 54]

3 hours ago, TimmySmith said:

Just before the virus hit big, Buffett bought a ton of Delta. So I figure that should be good for 150% return in the next year.

Buffet just sold some of their position in Delta and SWA.

[TimmySmith 2,782]

12 minutes ago, Leeson said:

Buffet just sold some of their position in Delta and SWA.

He still holds significant positions in both. He used the cash to buy something else. Need to find out what it is. Greedy Buffett time.

[Cdub100 3,381]

1 hour ago, TimmySmith said:

He still holds significant positions in both. He used the cash to buy something else. Need to find out what it is. Greedy Buffett time.

You probably know this but Buffet does trade like the rest of us. He gets special deals, discounts, and dividends. Just be careful. 

[Leeson 54]

1 hour ago, TimmySmith said:

He still holds significant positions in both. He used the cash to buy something else. Need to find out what it is. Greedy Buffett time.

Lot's of unknowns.

He could have sold it off to get below 10% holdings so he doesn't have to report sales of Delta right away. May dump much more in the future.

He could see the airlines stocks going much lower in the future. Why hold it at $10 when you can buy it in three months for $5.

He could be freeing up cash for other things. Perhaps the purchase of Delta Airlines?

[TimmySmith 2,782]

10 minutes ago, Leeson said:

Lot's of unknowns.

He could have sold it off to get below 10% holdings so he doesn't have to report sales of Delta right away. May dump much more in the future.

He could see the airlines stocks going much lower in the future. Why hold it at $10 when you can buy it in three months for $5.

He could be freeing up cash for other things. Perhaps the purchase of Delta Airlines?

Yeah, who knows, but Buffett was bullish on the industry 2 months ago. The ones that come out of this will only have more leverage. I will still back Delta.

[Leeson 54]

11 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

Yeah, who knows, but Buffett was bullish on the industry 2 months ago. The ones that come out of this will only have more leverage. I will still back Delta.

Most of the market was bullish 2 months ago. 

[Cdub100 3,381]

It's time to get back into the market. I believe we have either hit the bottom or are very close to it. If there is another drop it won't be more than 10%. To me, this is when it's time to get back in the market. I think there will be a sharp upturn when it does happen. If you miss out on those couple weeks/month it will put you a year behind.

 

[TimmySmith 2,782]

1 hour ago, Leeson said:

Most of the market was bullish 2 months ago. 

We should stop following Buffett and start following congress.

[nobody 2,043]

56 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

We should stop following Buffett and start following congress.

Preach

[MTSkiBum 1,594]

2 hours ago, Cdub100 said:

It's time to get back into the market. I believe we have either hit the bottom or are very close to it. If there is another drop it won't be more than 10%. To me, this is when it's time to get back in the market. I think there will be a sharp upturn when it does happen. If you miss out on those couple weeks/month it will put you a year behind.

 

In my opinion the bottom of the market is 1-4 months away still. 

[Cdub100 3,381]

3 minutes ago, MTSkiBum said:

In my opinion the bottom of the market is 1-4 months away still. 

How much farther do you think the market will fall? I think at max it will fall another 10% and then a very sharp uptick. For me, I want to have the bulk of my money deployed during (what I believe) this time.

[MTSkiBum 1,594]

7 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

How much farther do you think the market will fall? I think at max it will fall another 10% and then a very sharp uptick. For me, I want to have the bulk of my money deployed during (what I believe) this time.

My guess is 15-30%, but this should be qualified with the fact that I am not an expert in markets or pandemics. However, most of the charts from people who are experts in pandemics have it being the worst in about a month and then slightly improving over the month after that.

The market may have this priced in, however to me it seems like the market is reacting just the same as we are, going up during some press conferences and down during other press conferences, etc.

[Cdub100 3,381]

2 minutes ago, MTSkiBum said:

My guess is 15-30%, but this should be qualified with the fact that I am not an expert in markets or pandemics. However, most of the charts from people who are experts in pandemics have it being the worst in about a month and then slightly improving over the month after that.

The market may have this priced in, however to me it seems like the market is reacting just the same as we are, going up during some press conferences and down during other press conferences, etc.

Could be, but I sure hope you're wrong.