Is it time to get out of the market?

[Leeson 54]

20 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

I'm an idiot investor so here is the perspective of an idiot dividend investor.

When I look at a stock like 3M $MMM I see in January they were worth $240+. I bought three tranches in late March and early April at $118, $133, & 148. Currently, it's at $156. Now if 3M was worth 240+ in January why shouldn't I expect them to get back there? 

You can do that with lots of stocks. Everyone wanted a sale and when it happened they tried to time the recovery. Hell, I was doing the same thing. Go look at how many times in the last 30 days I said I wanted to get out of the market. The only regret I have was selling my CCL and RCL positions.

Bottom line everyone knows the recovery will take a while. So I consider that priced in. We also know the Fed makes the money machine go brrrr. To me when that stops or slows we will see a drop, but not until then.

A lot of people felt that the market was overvalued at the end of 2019. The Virus was the vehicle for the collapse, but not the reason it was overvalued. We are seeing a quick return to previous prices without anything adding value. If anything, we have removed value due to loss of revenue over a 60-90 day period. And even then, it's not a guarantee that we see anything close to normal in this country for a year. I think people are buying in because they think that every action has an equal and opposite reaction when it comes to stocks. It doesn't. Bankruptcies over the next year will prove that to investors. I'm still carrying scars from the last downturn when I saw companies like AIG and GM leave investors standing there with their pockets turned inside out.

I do see the need to for long term or dividend investing. In the past couple of weeks, I've added positions in BRK.B @ $188 and $184. KO @ $45. T @ $30. And JACK at $55 and $52.12. Those are in my long term (rollover or roth IRA). Even so, I still have my short term money in bonds and gold funds. 

 

[Cdub100 3,907]

12 minutes ago, Leeson said:

A lot of people felt that the market was overvalued at the end of 2019. The Virus was the vehicle for the collapse, but not the reason it was overvalued. We are seeing a quick return to previous prices without anything adding value. If anything, we have removed value due to loss of revenue over a 60-90 day period. And even then, it's not a guarantee that we see anything close to normal in this country for a year. I think people are buying in because they think that every action has an equal and opposite reaction when it comes to stocks. It doesn't. Bankruptcies over the next year will prove that to investors. I'm still carrying scars from the last downturn when I saw companies like AIG and GM leave investors standing there with their pockets turned inside out.

I do see the need to for long term or dividend investing. In the past couple of weeks, I've added positions in BRK.B @ $188 and $184. KO @ $45. T @ $30. And JACK at $55 and $52.12. Those are in my long term (rollover or roth IRA). Even so, I still have my short term money in bonds and gold funds. 

 

To your first point, a lot of people thought the market was overvalued at the end of 2018 and thought there would be a correction in 2019. Turned out 2019 was the best year the market saw in a very long time. As for bankruptcies yeah there's a chance but again I see the government stepping in to help.

For me, it's easy to look back at a chart and think if only I bought it at that price. Not living through the fear and uncertainty of a company it's easy to look back. Right now is when everyone is fearful or at least they where. I watch people quote Buffett "be greedy when others are fearful", but chicken out and play it safe when the rubber meets the road. I'm not saying that is you. I'm just talking about people in general.

KO is a great stock I bought three tranches in early April: $42.45, $44.02, $47.81, 

[Leeson 54]

15 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

To your first point, a lot of people thought the market was overvalued at the end of 2018 and thought there would be a correction in 2019. Turned out 2019 was the best year the market saw in a very long time. As for bankruptcies yeah there's a chance but again I see the government stepping in to help.

For me, it's easy to look back at a chart and think if only I bought it at that price. Not living through the fear and uncertainty of a company it's easy to look back. Right now is when everyone is fearful or at least they where. I watch people quote Buffett "be greedy when others are fearful", but chicken out and play it safe when the rubber meets the road. I'm not saying that is you. I'm just talking about people in general.

KO is a great stock I bought three tranches in early April: $42.45, $44.02, $47.81, 

May 2nd will be an interesting day. Curious to see what Buffett has done this first quarter. At last check, he was sitting on a lot of cash. Either he's lost his touch, or he knows something the rest of us don't. He's been waiting for a point to put money back into the market. If that moment wasn't mid March, what will that future moment look like?

[nobody 2,671]

5 hours ago, NorthernVike said:

As we approach 25,000 on the DOW again, I am seriously considering reducing my position on all of my positive stocks if not selling them all.  I am thinking of holding onto my oil stocks that are already in the shitter.  

 

Bad news will be the norm for businesses over the next year and I think we'll test the March lows.  

 

Convince me otherwise.  

So you're going to sell your good performing stocks and keep your bad performing stocks?

[Cdub100 3,907]

16 minutes ago, Leeson said:

May 2nd will be an interesting day. Curious to see what Buffett has done this first quarter. At last check, he was sitting on a lot of cash. Either he's lost his touch, or he knows something the rest of us don't. He's been waiting for a point to put money back into the market. If that moment wasn't mid March, what will that future moment look like?

Buffett doesn't trade like us normies. What he does with Berkshire cannot be repeated on the open market. So I don't really concern myself with what he does.

[Leeson 54]

51 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

Buffett doesn't trade like us normies. What he does with Berkshire cannot be repeated on the open market. So I don't really concern myself with what he does.

Fundamentally, I think you can repeat what he does. Regardless, he's been in cash waiting for an opportunity to put that cash to work. If that wasn't last  month, then when. And more importantly, why?

[Cdub100 3,907]

1 hour ago, Leeson said:

Fundamentally, I think you can repeat what he does. Regardless, he's been in cash waiting for an opportunity to put that cash to work. If that wasn't last  month, then when. And more importantly, why?

You can buy the same stock, but you're not buying the same stock often he gets it for much lower than market and or additional stock options and special dividends. So I don't really agree you can copy his portfolio even fundamentally.

I read he likes to have up 30% of his portfolio liquid to take advantage of opportunities. Which circles back to my earlier point when he buys a company he's not buying the same stock as we are.

 

[Leeson 54]

16 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

You can buy the same stock, but you're not buying the same stock often he gets it for much lower than market and or additional stock options and special dividends. So I don't really agree you can copy his portfolio even fundamentally.

I read he likes to have up 30% of his portfolio liquid to take advantage of opportunities. Which circles back to my earlier point when he buys a company he's not buying the same stock as we are.

 

When I said fundamentally, I meant being in cash, buying companies you believe in, be afraid when others are greedy, etc.  You seem to fly in the opposite of his fundamentals. I hope things work out for both of us somehow.

Either way, we will find out if they have made any moves in the last quarter. If they are still sitting on the sidelines, then I think it speaks volumes. If he is able to buy things at a cheaper rate than you our I, what more could they be waiting for? He isn't one of the richest men in the world by making dumb moves or throwing away thousands of shareholder's cash. 

Not only can he buy better than you and I. But, he has much better inside information with which to make those decisions. 

[NorthernVike 2,086]

13 hours ago, nobody said:

So you're going to sell your good performing stocks and keep your bad performing stocks?

Yep.  Take my profits and reinvest them when the price drops.  I can always sell my dogs at the end of the year to offset any capital gains. 

[vuduchile 1,945]

Amazon announced they missed earnings forecast today.  How the hell did that happen?  This is why I don'b mess with individual stocks anymore.  I thought they would be on fire throughout this crisis.  

[Hardcore troubadour 15,424]

3 minutes ago, vuduchile said:

Amazon announced they missed earnings forecast today.  How the hell did that happen?  This is why I don'b mess with individual stocks anymore.  I thought they would be on fire throughout this crisis.  

People stocked up. Also, when things like pools and decks/patios aren’t getting built, people will buy less stuff. When my pool and deck were done last year I bought a whole bunch of things from amazon. People not playing sports or buying clothes for vacations and a myriad of other things that need not be purchased at this time. 

[vuduchile 1,945]

1 minute ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

People stocked up. Also, when things like pools and decks/patios aren’t getting built, people will buy less stuff. When my pool and deck were done last year I bought a whole bunch of things from amazon. People not playing sports or buying clothes for vacations and a myriad of other things that need not be purchased at this time. 

Good points.  You just reminded me that we bought our sons new cleats, gloves and helmets for baseball that they'll likely outgrow before they get a chance to wear them.  Bought those in a brick and mortar before Corona cancelled the world.  

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

7 minutes ago, vuduchile said:

Good points.  You just reminded me that we bought our sons new cleats, gloves and helmets for baseball that they'll likely outgrow before they get a chance to wear them.  Bought those in a brick and mortar before Corona cancelled the world.  

Revenue was up more than 25%.  However, their costs were increased because of COVID-19 precautions at their facilities and for raises to people still working.  There were approximately $4B more in costs that ate up all the profit.  

[Hardcore troubadour 15,424]

7 minutes ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

Revenue was up more than 25%.  However, their costs were increased because of COVID-19 precautions at their facilities and for raises to people still working.  There were approximately $4B more in costs that ate up all the profit.  

Makes sense. Always keep in mind that it’s less profit, not losing money. If it lost money then oh boy.  

[Cdub100 3,907]

Cdub is it time? Is it time to get out of the market?

Me....

 

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

35 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Makes sense. Always keep in mind that it’s less profit, not losing money. If it lost money then oh boy.  

Well, they are estimating an operating profit range of $1.5B to negative $1.5B, so they could lose some money.  They also invest heavily in technology and take those as operating costs.

[Hardcore troubadour 15,424]

1 minute ago, Patriotsfatboy1 said:

Well, they are estimating an operating profit range of $1.5B to negative $1.5B, so they could lose some money.  They also invest heavily in technology and take those as operating costs.

That won’t be good.  Not at all. 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,424]

 Now McDonalds says they will be “rationing “ meat. This could be the start of the second wave as far as the market goes. 

[Cdub100 3,907]

3 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

 Now McDonalds says they will be “rationing “ meat. This could be the start of the second wave as far as the market goes. 

I just picked up a bunch of meat from my butcher. He said there's plenty of meat, but there's no one to process it.

The supply chain is starting to crack.

[vuduchile 1,945]

2 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

I just picked up a bunch of meat from my butcher. He said there's plenty of meat, but there's no one to process it.

The supply chain is starting to crack.

I stocked up on some last week at my local farmer.  She was pretty thin went I went there.  She said they won't have a problem getting meat since they use a small processor.  But I'm concerned they'll be selling out quickly.  I placed another advance order today.  She has the chickens I ordered now and is supposed to receive the pork and beef Tue or Wed.  

I'll try to place another order for the following week if she'll let me.  If so, that should carry us through for 45-60 days.  

[edjr 6,580]

taking a beating today, owch

[Cdub100 3,907]

You know why I stayed in? Those motherfockers know the fed will come in a buy more sh1t, but they won't do it unless the market "needs it". So those beotches sell sell sell all day long and then in the last minute jump back in. Look at that last candlestick. I predict the market will be green Monday

https://ibb.co/9hJqt7c

[Leeson 54]

16 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

You know why I stayed in? Those motherfockers know the fed will come in a buy more sh1t, but they won't do it unless the market "needs it". So those beotches sell sell sell all day long and then in the last minute jump back in. Look at that last candlestick. I predict the market will be green Monday

https://ibb.co/9hJqt7c

With two down days, I moved 15% from G to C fund in wife's TSP. 

All I can do at this point is DCA in on these down days. I'm still concerned the bottom can drop again. 

[lod001 1,344]

Sell you biatches. This market is going down again. 

[Cdub100 3,907]

32 minutes ago, lod001 said:

Sell you biatches. This market is going down again. 

I AINT LEAVING!!!!

[Leeson 54]

On 4/29/2020 at 4:35 PM, Leeson said:

May 2nd will be an interesting day. Curious to see what Buffett has done this first quarter. At last check, he was sitting on a lot of cash. Either he's lost his touch, or he knows something the rest of us don't. He's been waiting for a point to put money back into the market. If that moment wasn't mid March, what will that future moment look like?

Berkshire sold all their positions in airlines. Didn't make any splash purchases. And, they are sitting on $140 billion dollar. I still stand by my above statement. 

I'm now second guessing all of my moves over the past few weeks. 

[Cdub100 3,907]

Cannot wait for the market to open. Airline stock should be a sweet discount.

[Leeson 54]

10 minutes ago, Cdub100 said:

Cannot wait for the market to open. Airline stock should be a sweet discount.

Just fade the one that ends up going bankrupt. 

[Cdub100 3,907]

5 minutes ago, Leeson said:

Just fade the one that ends up going bankrupt. 

I'll probably buy, DAL & LUV

[peenie 1,915]

People will eventually travel again. Unless the UFOs are offering passenger flights, I'm pretty sure the airline business will continue to transport people to and fro.

[Cdub100 3,907]

12 hours ago, peenie said:

People will eventually travel again. Unless the UFOs are offering passenger flights, I'm pretty sure the airline business will continue to transport people to and fro.

Yes, but what I think people are afraid of is what happened to GM. Huge bailout where their stocks went to 0. I don't think Trump will do what Obama did. Instead, he will offer a very generous loan

[Leeson 54]

No airlines for me. I stayed grounded and opened a small position in CAT. Also added a little more BRKB. 

[Cdub100 3,907]

Just bought $LUV 27.25

I don't like to travel on southwest but they have an almost cult following. I prefer DAL (delta), but they don't have a dividend.

[Cdub100 3,907]

I also was looking to buy some RCL or CCL bonds but min order is 10.

[Leeson 54]

With the rhetoric of bringing some manufacturing back to the U.S. from China, are there companies that could benefit from a shift like this? I'm thinking it would hurt their overall profitability due to wage costs and regulations. 

[Cdub100 3,907]

Bought more RCL royal caribbean $39.60

[Cdub100 3,907]

Added to my already established positions

PEP

MMM

JNJ

V

TXRH

DIS

[Cdub100 3,907]

Bought CCL & CAT. I'm done for the day

[bandrus1 413]

2 hours ago, Leeson said:

With the rhetoric of bringing some manufacturing back to the U.S. from China, are there companies that could benefit from a shift like this? I'm thinking it would hurt their overall profitability due to wage costs and regulations. 

If that were to happen I think domestic material manufacturers would benefit greatly. Not only would we bring back product manufacturing but we would also have to have domestic material manufacturing 

[Cdub100 3,907]

 

 

 

2

On 5/1/2020 at 4:06 PM, Cdub100 said:

You know why I stayed in? Those motherfockers know the fed will come in a buy more sh1t, but they won't do it unless the market "needs it". So those beotches sell sell sell all day long and then in the last minute jump back in. Look at that last candlestick. I predict the market will be green Monday

https://ibb.co/9hJqt7c

 Today was a win

Even with the after-hours traders and the Buffettheads selling their crap at open the market had a nice day.