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What's the thoughts on David Montgomery?

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4 hours ago, Skinny_Bastard said:

250 carries and 50 receptions.

What he does with it is anyone’s guess.

LOL  Absolutely not.

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4 hours ago, nobody said:

I also don't get the Davis as being a goal line back stuff.  Montgomery is the biggest back on the roster.

They weigh the same; Davis is shorter and stockier in the thighs--more of a bowling ball.  You want to get low and use your leg strength at the goalline.

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5 hours ago, AxeElf said:

They weigh the same; Davis is shorter and stockier in the thighs--more of a bowling ball.  You want to get low and use your leg strength at the goalline.

this is that good stuff.

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10 hours ago, unclemercy said:

this is that good stuff.

Except Davis is only an inch shorter.

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5 minutes ago, unclemercy said:

was being facetious. i think taking stock in whos stockier is drivelish.

yes, particularly without taking into consideration which one is swiftier.

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1 hour ago, Skinny_Bastard said:

Howard got 250/20 last season.  

Yes, it’s possible.

Well, that would be 30 short of the prediction that I adamantly deny, now wouldn't it?

And that was without a RB1b on the team.

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22 hours ago, AxeElf said:

I think he's being drafted above it.

Serious three-way split in Chicago, and Montgomery is being drafted as a bellcow.  I wouldn't be surprised if he and Carlos Hyde finish with approximately the same fantasy points.

The Bears are in love with David Montgomery.   The kid is going to be a Top 10 RB this year.  Matt Nagy is on record for stating that he will reduce Tarik Cohen's touches.   

The comparisons with Kareem Hunt (football wise, that is) are legitimate.   I watched a lot of the Iowa State tape, and Montgomery shows power, elusiveness and great balance.   Montgomery has the benefits of a very good offensive line, and a great defense that will keep positive game scripts in play for him.   Matt Nagy is going to showcase David on Thursday Night football.   The hype is real;  I see around 1300 total yards and 11 TDs this year.   

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4 minutes ago, dcgangstas said:

I see around 1300 total yards and 11 TDs this year.   

I see that too--just not for David Montgomery.

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1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

Well, that would be 30 short of the prediction that I adamantly deny, now wouldn't it?

And that was without a RB1b on the team.

Who's the other RB1b?  Journey Mike Davis? lol

He's a better runner, more burst, better hands than Howard.  Both Davis and Cohen are one trick ponies.  

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If Tarik is a one trick pony, then I'll take two please. He was the 9th and 10th ranked RB in two of my PPR leagues last year.

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4 minutes ago, LaChup said:

If Tarik is a one trick pony, then I'll take two please. He was the 9th and 10th ranked RB in two of my PPR leagues last year.

But Montgomery can do both.

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 Cohen will touch the ball less I agree with that, Montgomery can catch. 

And Montgomery should be able to hold his own in the redone. 

But, Cohen is great in space and he’ll get his fair share of work, and Davis is a good player who also will get his share of work. 

Im not saying Montgomery won’t post good numbers like said rb2, but we see the new nfl, if you have players use them, no need to over work him this season, and I don’t think the Bears will. 

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5 hours ago, Skinny_Bastard said:

Both Davis and Cohen are one trick ponies.  

I'm not arguing that.  I'm arguing that after Davis and Cohen do their tricks, there aren't going to be 300 touches left for Montgomery.  I'd be a little surprised if he hits 250.  Only 12 RBs exceeded 250 touches last year, and none of them were in 3-way backfields.

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I think Montgomery gets around 230 carries and 40 receptions.  Probably about 900 yards rushing and 400 receiving with 10 total TDs.

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27 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I think Montgomery gets around 230 carries and 40 receptions.

Zero chance Montgomery tops 250 touches.  Zip.  Zilch.  None.

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1 minute ago, AxeElf said:

Zero chance Montgomery tops 250 touches.  Zip.  Zilch.  None.

There's always a chance.  It's never wise to talk in absolutes.

I am curious why you feel he has zero chance though.

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1 minute ago, Hawkeye21 said:

There's always a chance.  It's never wise to talk in absolutes.

I am curious why you feel he has zero chance though.

Because I'm Axe Elf.

And there is NO chance...

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1 minute ago, AxeElf said:

Because I'm Axe Elf.

And there is NO chance...

What are your projections for him then?

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1 minute ago, Hawkeye21 said:

What are your projections for him then?

6th-8th round.

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1 minute ago, AxeElf said:

6th-8th round.

I was wondering what your projections were for his stats this season.

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19 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

I was wondering what your projections were for his stats this season.

I don't really think in those terms, just in terms of relative value.

But 250 touches is a lot.  Only 12 NFL RBs exceeded 250 touches last year, and they had names like Elliott, McCaffrey, Kamara, Barkley, Gurley, Johnson and Mixon.  The chances of a rookie RB in a 3-headed backfield getting there is approximately equal to the chances of me bedding Jessica Alba.  Sure, it could happen...  but I'm not holding my breath.

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1 minute ago, AxeElf said:

I don't really think in those terms, just in terms of relative value.

But 250 touches is a lot.  Only 12 NFL RBs exceeded 250 touches last year, and they had names like Elliott, McCaffrey, Kamara, Barkley, Gurley, Johnson and Mixon.  The chances of a rookie RB in a 3-headed backfield getting there is approximately equal to the chances of me bedding Jessica Alba.  Sure, it could happen...  but I'm not holding my breath.

Are you talking overall touches or carries?  I would agree that 250 carries is a lot, it's exactly how many Howard had in the Bear's offense last year.  I never said that Montgomery would get 250 carries though, I said around 230 carries and 40 receptions.  I see no reason why he can't do that in this offense.

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11 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

I don't really think in those terms, just in terms of relative value.

But 250 touches is a lot.  Only 12 NFL RBs exceeded 250 touches last year, and they had names like Elliott, McCaffrey, Kamara, Barkley, Gurley, Johnson and Mixon.  The chances of a rookie RB in a 3-headed backfield getting there is approximately equal to the chances of me bedding Jessica Alba.  Sure, it could happen...  but I'm not holding my breath.

yet, you clearly do think in those terms Axe Elf Impersonator: 

"I would pencil in Hyde for about 950-1000 yards and 6-7 TDs; basically low-end RB2 in the top 25 or so (maybe a little lower in PPR)." 

So who in your "Expert" opinion will score more fantasy points: Hyde or Montgomery?

 

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12 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Are you talking overall touches or carries?  I would agree that 250 carries is a lot, it's exactly how many Howard had in the Bear's offense last year.  I never said that Montgomery would get 250 carries though, I said around 230 carries and 40 receptions.  I see no reason why he can't do that in this offense.

Yes, you said 230 carries + 40 touches.  That's 270 touches.  I maintain that there is no chance that Montgomery surpasses 250 touches.

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7 minutes ago, jrokh said:

yet, you clearly do think in those terms Axe Elf Impersonator: 

"I would pencil in Hyde for about 950-1000 yards and 6-7 TDs; basically low-end RB2 in the top 25 or so (maybe a little lower in PPR)." 

So who in your "Expert" opinion will score more fantasy points: Hyde or Montgomery?

 

I can say that about Hyde based on Miller's production from last year (1136 yards and 6 TDs, while missing 2 games).  There's a baseline for the lead RB in the current Houston offense.  There's no baseline for a rookie in the new 3-way committee of the Bears' backfield, but if you're comparing Montgomery to Hyde, I would expect them to be roughly equal, with Montgomery gaining more yards and Hyde scoring more TDs.

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19 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

But 250 touches is a lot.  Only 12 NFL RBs exceeded 250 touches last year, and they had names like Elliott, McCaffrey, Kamara, Barkley, Gurley, Johnson and Mixon.

So, these were the only RBs to get over 250 touches last year?  I think you started mixing up carries and touches here because there were more than that who had over 250 touches.

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6 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

I can say that about Hyde based on Miller's production from last year (1136 yards and 6 TDs, while missing 2 games).  There's a baseline for the lead RB in the current Houston offense.  There's no baseline for a rookie in the new 3-way committee of the Bears' backfield, but if you're comparing Montgomery to Hyde, I would expect them to be roughly equal, with Montgomery gaining more yards and Hyde scoring more TDs.

Why can you say that about Hyde re: Lamar Miller, but not Montgomery, re: Jordan Howard? Because of Mike Davis? Please, name whatever terms you wish on who has more fantasy points in any format between Montgomery and Hyde and I will gleefully take that action...

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3 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

So, these were the only RBs to get over 250 touches last year?  I think you started mixing up carries and touches here because there were more than that who had over 250 touches.

No, 12 NFL RBs had more than 250 touches.

NFL Touches

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1 minute ago, jrokh said:

Why can you say that about Hyde re: Lamar Miller, but not Montgomery, re: Jordan Howard? Because of Mike Davis? Please, name whatever terms you wish on who has more fantasy points in any format between Montgomery and Hyde and I will gleefully take that action...

Ok, you can join an auction league with me and you can take Montgomery and I will take Hyde.

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4 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Ok, you can join an auction league with me and you can take Montgomery and I will take Hyde.

I am not wagering on being in a league with you, or even responding to your bait and switch. The wager is simple: who has more fantasy points, Montgomery or Hyde. No further complications are necessary. What's a matter Colonel Sanders? Chicken?

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I worry about his 2nd half if he gets the volume that some project as the NFL schedule ia a lot more grueling than college. I think that Nagy will try and keep him fresh, and lean on Davis a little more than expected if Nagy has playoffs hopes. 

I could see something like 195 carries with 30-45 receptions if he plays all 16 games. Obviously more if one of the other RBs goes down... I think that is pretty solid with how the landscape has changed for RBs currently. 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

No, 12 NFL RBs had more than 250 touches.

NFL Touches

That's a handy site.  I'll have to remember that one.

I see that Howard and Cohen combined for 440 carries last year.  How many carries do you expect Davis to get?

Davis had 146 with a different team.

The Bear's backfield had 469 touches last year.  I'm not sure what they will have this year but I would expect it to be similar.

It is unlikely that Montgomery has 270 touches but it's possible.  It's more realistic, based on last year's stats, that he finishes with closer to 230-240 touches.

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1 minute ago, jrokh said:

I am not wagering on being in a league with you, or even responding to your bait and switch. The wager is simple: who has more fantasy points, Montgomery or Hyde. No further complications are necessary. What's a matter Colonel Sanders? Chicken?

Peer pressure has no effect on Axe Elf, since Axe Elf has no peer.

You said I could name whatever terms I wished in any format and you would gleefully accept.  I am drafting in a $125 High Stakes auction league at RT Sports called "Liquor in Front and Poker in Back" at 8pm ET tonight.  If you would like to keep your word and "gleefully accept," feel free.  If you choose tail-tucking instead, you have no room to call anyone else names.

My projection is that they will be close in fantasy point production, which means I think there is about a 50% chance that Hyde finishes with more points than Montgomery, and a 50% chance that Montgomery finishes with more points than Hyde.  Why would I place a wager on a coin flip, even if I am absolutely certain of my prediction that they will be approximately equal in value?  Now, if I was saying that Hyde would end up with 100 more fantasy points than Montgomery, then you would have reason to suggest a wager based on fantasy point production.

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1 minute ago, Hawkeye21 said:

That's a handy site.  I'll have to remember that one.

I see that Howard and Cohen combined for 440 carries last year.  How many carries do you expect Davis to get?

Davis had 146 with a different team.

The Bear's backfield had 469 touches last year.  I'm not sure what they will have this year but I would expect it to be similar.

It is unlikely that Montgomery has 270 touches but it's possible.  It's more realistic, based on last year's stats, that he finishes with closer to 230-240 touches.

I don't really see the value in trying to nail down touches to the exact number; if he averages 10 yards per carry, 150 touches will be plenty to make him the #1 RB in fantasy football.

But if you insist, I think that 230 would be a high upper end estimate, I would be more comfortable with a mean of 215 and a standard deviation of 10.

The Bears were #8 in the league in team rushing attempts last year, with several injuries to TEs and WRs, and a young QB (who contributed 68 of their 468 team rushing attempts).  While they will probably remain a run-based offense, I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose 40-50 rushing attempts for the year (that's like 3 per week) to an improved aerial attack.

So now they have 360-370 non-QB rush attempts to divvy up three ways...

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