Coronavirus - Doomsday

[TimHauck 2,923]

12 minutes ago, lod001 said:

The israeli petri dish: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/grim-warning-israel-vaccination-blunts-does-not-defeat-delta

“I watch [Israeli data] very, very closely because it is some of the absolutely best data coming out anywhere in the world,” says David O’Connor, a viral sequencing expert at the University of Wisconsin, Madison. “Israel is the model,” agrees Eric Topol, a physician-scientist at Scripps Research. “It’s pure mRNA [messenger RNA] vaccines. It’s out there early. It’s got a very high level population [uptake]. It’s a working experimental lab for us to learn from.”  

What is clear is that “breakthrough” cases are not the rare events the term implies. As of 15 August, 514 Israelis were hospitalized with severe or critical COVID-19, a 31% increase from just 4 days earlier. Of the 514, 59% were fully vaccinated. 

How's that vax now Timmy? Notice it keeps getting worse as time goes by?

If 90% of the age 60+ population is fully vaccinated and 59% of the hospitalizations are vaccinated, that's still 84% effective.   Yes, not as good as we thought (due to Delta), but still pretty dang good.   I know Berenson has been claiming the Israelis that aren't vaccinated is because "they're too frail," which may be the case for like 90 year olds, but not people less than 75 or so.  If anything the unvaccinated will be more likely to have been previously infected and thus skewing the effectiveness calculation.

410 / 1000 = 41%

590 / 9000 = 6.6%

(41% - 6.6%) / 41% = 84%

[TimHauck 2,923]

23 hours ago, listen2me 23 said:

Maybe the "Trumpers" like yourself apparently....are waiting for full FDA approval.   

So when it gets full approval there will be no more excuses for those not previously infected, correct?

[TimHauck 2,923]

14 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Trumpers. 

I think it's more the fact that they were able to squash covid in 2020 so people weren't that concerned about it.

[Hardcore troubadour 15,517]

17 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

I think it's more the fact that they were able to squash covid in 2020 so people weren't that concerned about it.

Of course. 

[TimHauck 2,923]

1 hour ago, lod001 said:

The israeli petri dish: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/grim-warning-israel-vaccination-blunts-does-not-defeat-delta

“I watch [Israeli data] very, very closely because it is some of the absolutely best data coming out anywhere in the world,” says David O’Connor, a viral sequencing expert at the University of Wisconsin, Madison. “Israel is the model,” agrees Eric Topol, a physician-scientist at Scripps Research. “It’s pure mRNA [messenger RNA] vaccines. It’s out there early. It’s got a very high level population [uptake]. It’s a working experimental lab for us to learn from.”  

What is clear is that “breakthrough” cases are not the rare events the term implies. As of 15 August, 514 Israelis were hospitalized with severe or critical COVID-19, a 31% increase from just 4 days earlier. Of the 514, 59% were fully vaccinated. 

How's that vax now Timmy? Notice it keeps getting worse as time goes by?

Good  analysis here:

https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated

 

 

 

 

[Hawkeye21 2,400]

Got a text from my brother this morning that his family all got tested before school started.  His 11 year old daughter tested positive and now they are all missing their first day of school this year, my brother and his wife both work at schools.  My brother and his wife are both vaccinated, if that makes a difference.

[TimmySmith 2,782]

59 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Good  analysis here:

https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated

 

 

 

 

Poorly written chart.  Should say per 100K at the bottom not the top.  Makes it look as if there are 301 serious cases per 100K of vaxxed, as opposed to 214 per 100K of unvaxxed. 

[TimHauck 2,923]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Got a text from my brother this morning that his family all got tested before school started.  His 11 year old daughter tested positive and now they are all missing their first day of school this year, my brother and his wife both work at schools.  My brother and his wife are both vaccinated, if that makes a difference.

The husband and wife tested positive too?

[Hawkeye21 2,400]

Just now, TimHauck said:

The husband and wife tested positive too?

No, just my niece.

[Hardcore troubadour 15,517]

30 pct of the people in the US have not received at least one dose. Now pay attention stupids: While most of the people that have received at least one live in the most populated (blue) areas, it only stands to reason that the majority of people who don’t have it also live in the most populated (blue) areas. That’s why comparing Allegheny county with 15 k people to the Bronx with 1.5 million is dumb as shite. Here ends the lesson. 

[TimmySmith 2,782]

43 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

30 pct of the people in the US have not received at least one dose. Now pay attention stupids: While most of the people that have received at least one live in the most populated (blue) areas, it only stands to reason that the majority of people who don’t have it also live in the most populated (blue) areas. That’s why comparing Allegheny county with 15 k people to the Bronx with 1.5 million is dumb as shite. Here ends the lesson. 

It's all about percentages!!!!  

[TimHauck 2,923]

49 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

30 pct of the people in the US have not received at least one dose. Now pay attention stupids: While most of the people that have received at least one live in the most populated (blue) areas, it only stands to reason that the majority of people who don’t have it also live in the most populated (blue) areas. That’s why comparing Allegheny county with 15 k people to the Bronx with 1.5 million is dumb as shite. Here ends the lesson. 

No, that doesn't stand to reason.  Because many blue cities are surrounded by red suburbs/exurbs.  Do you think all Republicans live on a farm or something?   If what you say is true then the popular vote would be like 70% in favor of every Dem candidate when obviously that's not the case (been within 50-54% the last 7 elections).

[Utilit99 4,099]

3 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

No, that doesn't stand to reason.  Because many blue cities are surrounded by red suburbs/exurbs.  Do you think all Republicans live on a farm or something?   If what you say is true then the popular vote would be like 70% in favor of every Dem candidate when obviously that's not the case (been within 50-54% the last 7 elections).

Don't you ever get tired of losing?

[TimHauck 2,923]

Just now, Utilit99 said:

Don't you ever get tired of losing?

Way more unvaccinated whites than unvaccinated blacks.  Do you disagree?

[Utilit99 4,099]

8 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Way more unvaccinated whites than unvaccinated blacks.  

Not by % of population. No.

Plus, I don't give a crap if people do or do not get vaccinated. 

[TimmySmith 2,782]

Just now, Utilit99 said:

Not by % of population. No.

Plus, I don't give a crap if people do or do not get vaccinated. 

So true. The % never lies.  

[TimHauck 2,923]

28 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

It's all about percentages!!!!  

 

6 minutes ago, TimmySmith said:

So true. The % never lies.  

lol

[TimHauck 2,923]

7 minutes ago, Utilit99 said:

Not by % of population. No.

This is exactly what HT is saying not to do.  You guys think you're on the same page, but you're not.

[Utilit99 4,099]

1 minute ago, TimHauck said:

This is exactly what HT is saying not to do.  You guys think you're on the same page, but you're not.

I don't compare notes with anyone on this site. Keep trying.

[TimHauck 2,923]

4 minutes ago, Utilit99 said:

I don't compare notes with anyone on this site. Keep trying.

Well then you probably shouldn't have quoted him and said "don't you get tired of losing" when you don't even agree with him

[Utilit99 4,099]

24 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Well then you probably shouldn't have quoted him and said "don't you get tired of losing" when you don't even agree with him

Move on man. You don't even follow your screwed up logic .

[TheNewGirl 1,498]

3 hours ago, Hawkeye21 said:

No, just my niece.

So even if they are vaxed, they had to stay home? 

I ask then what's the point of getting vaccinated if it's not allowing you to still go to work or whatever, or if you still carry the illness to infect others? I get that if you DO infect someone who is vaccinated, they have a smaller chance of dying, but you still have to quarantine? It does not make sense to me. 

[Hawkeye21 2,400]

3 minutes ago, TheNewGirl said:

So even if they are vaxed, they had to stay home? 

I ask then what's the point of getting vaccinated if it's not allowing you to still go to work or whatever, or if you still carry the illness to infect others? I get that if you DO infect someone who is vaccinated, they have a smaller chance of dying, but you still have to quarantine? It does not make sense to me. 

He told me they were staying home.  I have no idea how any of this crap works and it doesn't make much sense to me.

[TimHauck 2,923]

1 hour ago, Utilit99 said:

Not by % of population. No.

If you compare total whites vs total blacks it's higher for whites, but I believe White Republicans vs total Blacks (or Black Democrats if you prefer, I'm sure it's basically the same as total Blacks) is comparable. 

The total white number is being inflated by White Democrats, which oddly Republicans seem to be taking credit for.

[TheNewGirl 1,498]

4 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

He told me they were staying home.  I have no idea how any of this crap works and it doesn't make much sense to me.

My husband and I are vaccinated. We were told that if our daughter comes in contact with someone, she has to quarantine, we do not. If she tests positive, we are vaccinated and can still move about freely, no quarantine. 

Since we are discovering that vaccinated folks can carry the virus, we have to quarantine too? 

This is one of the reasons why people don't want to vaccinate. It doesn't appear that your life will return to normal, even if you do it. 

[Utilit99 4,099]

1 minute ago, TimHauck said:

If you compare total whites vs total blacks it's higher for whites, but I believe White Republicans vs total Blacks (or Black Democrats if you prefer, I'm sure it's basically the same as total Blacks) is comparable. 

The total white number is being inflated by White Democrats, which oddly Republicans seem to be taking credit for.

Why do you care? Are these polls asking people how they voted? Why would they ask that? 

[Hawkeye21 2,400]

1 minute ago, TheNewGirl said:

My husband and I are vaccinated. We were told that if our daughter comes in contact with someone, she has to quarantine, we do not. If she tests positive, we are vaccinated and can still move about freely, no quarantine. 

Since we are discovering that vaccinated folks can carry the virus, we have to quarantine too? 

This is one of the reasons why people don't want to vaccinate. It doesn't appear that your life will return to normal, even if you do it. 

There is not enough evidence of anything for anyone to know for certain what works and what doesn't.  No one has any idea if there will be long term effects from the vaccines.  There are just way too many uncertainties right now.  I don't blame anyone for getting the vaccine and I don't blame anyone for not wanting to get it.  The same goes for masks.  What I can't stand are those who are out there guilting others for what they choose to do.  My parents are currently doing this to me.

[Utilit99 4,099]

3 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

There is not enough evidence of anything for anyone to know for certain what works and what doesn't.  No one has any idea if there will be long term effects from the vaccines.  There are just way too many uncertainties right now.  I don't blame anyone for getting the vaccine and I don't blame anyone for not wanting to get it.  The same goes for masks.  What I can't stand are those who are out there guilting others for what they choose to do.  My parents are currently doing this to me.

There are drug commercials for people having bathroom problems that include a full minute+ of chat about possible side affects, but nothing about these focking vaccines is shared in this manner.

[TheNewGirl 1,498]

4 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

There is not enough evidence of anything for anyone to know for certain what works and what doesn't.  No one has any idea if there will be long term effects from the vaccines.  There are just way too many uncertainties right now.  I don't blame anyone for getting the vaccine and I don't blame anyone for not wanting to get it.  The same goes for masks.  What I can't stand are those who are out there guilting others for what they choose to do.  My parents are currently doing this to me.

I am with you. 

I have family members who are strongly anti-vax and then others who are begging me to get my kids vaccinated.  It's awful to be in the middle of these arguments. 

[Hawkeye21 2,400]

1 minute ago, Utilit99 said:

There are drug commercials for people having bathroom problems that include a full minute+ of chat about possible side affects, but nothing about these focking vaccines is shared in this manner.

Good point.  It's ridiculous.

[TimHauck 2,923]

23 minutes ago, Utilit99 said:

Why do you care? Are these polls asking people how they voted? Why would they ask that? 

You're the one arguing about whites having a higher % vaccinated than blacks.   But that's largely because of white Democrats.  And yes polls are asking how they vote.

[TimHauck 2,923]

23 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

There is not enough evidence of anything for anyone to know for certain what works and what doesn't.  No one has any idea if there will be long term effects from the vaccines.  There are just way too many uncertainties right now.  I don't blame anyone for getting the vaccine and I don't blame anyone for not wanting to get it.  The same goes for masks.  What I can't stand are those who are out there guilting others for what they choose to do.  My parents are currently doing this to me.

The vaccine clearly works very well at preventing serious illness and death.    It's just not as clear on how well it works at preventing infection.   No we obviously don't know the "long-term effects" but there is no historical precedent for a side effect appearing all of the sudden a year or more down the road of any vaccine.   However yes there are some short-term effects of the vaccine, with possibly the most serious being the myocarditis risk in young men.

[Utilit99 4,099]

22 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

You're the one arguing about whites having a higher % vaccinated than blacks.   But that's largely because of white Democrats.  And yes polls are asking how they vote.

No. I'm not. I don't care who has more. You seriously do and I just wanted to fill you in that there are only 13% of blacks that make up our population and that the majority of them vote democratic and that they are mostly not vaccinated. 

That seems to be a troubling point for you. 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,517]

1 hour ago, TimHauck said:

You're the one arguing about whites having a higher % vaccinated than blacks.   But that's largely because of white Democrats.  And yes polls are asking how they vote.

So Tim, when you have been pointing out the different vaccination rates between red amd blue states, what’s your goal? You would like to see more people get it? 

[TimHauck 2,923]

2 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

So Tim, when you have been pointing out the different vaccination rates between red amd blue states, what’s your goal? You would like to see more people get it? 

Yes I would, particularly the olds & fatties in the South (of all colors).   

[Hardcore troubadour 15,517]

2 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Yes I would, particularly the olds & fatties in the South (of all colors).   

But the greater number of unvaccinated people are in the blue states. Why not start there? 

[TimHauck 2,923]

1 minute ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

But the greater number of unvaccinated people are in the blue states. Why not start there? 

Link?

[Hardcore troubadour 15,517]

2 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Link?

Well Tim, the population of NY is about 20 million. About 12 million people have been vaccinated. That leaves 8 million. Taking out under 16 year olds which should  account for 2 million people, that leaves 6 million. Anyplace down south with 6 million unvaccinated people? 

[DonS 3,292]

2 hours ago, Utilit99 said:

There are drug commercials for people having bathroom problems that include a full minute+ of chat about possible side affects, but nothing about these focking vaccines is shared in this manner.

Regarding these drug commercials...

It always cracks me up how they mention "people who are allergic to DRUGXYZ should not take DRUGXYZ". 

No sh1t Sherlock!!! 

[jerryskids 6,846]

6 minutes ago, DonS said:

Regarding these drug commercials...

It always cracks me up how they mention "people who are allergic to DRUGXYZ should not take DRUGXYZ". 

No sh1t Sherlock!!! 

IKR?!  I hope to someday hear "people who are allergic to DRUGXYZ can go ahead and take it anyway!"