***Wagering thread***

[bostonlager 2,497]

I had a nice week 9 and thought about sitting on it because I got my winning percentage up to 55% and these two teams are dumpster fires, but I'm a degen so here we go.

San Diego at New York Jets

Breece Hall o 19.5 receiving

Austin Ekeler o 32.5 receiving

[BeenHereBefore 1,353]

13 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

I had a nice week 9 and thought about sitting on it because I got my winning percentage up to 55% and these two teams are dumpster fires, but I'm a degen so here we go.

San Diego at New York Jets

Breece Hall o 19.5 receiving

Austin Ekeler o 32.5 receiving

Glad to hear you had a good week also. Thanks may use them in a parlay later.

[bostonlager 2,497]

4 hours ago, Mookz said:

That's what we get for not listening to bostonlager.

I wish my ex-wives felt this way. 

[bostonlager 2,497]

On 11/6/2023 at 6:47 AM, bostonlager said:

Week 1: 11-7

Week 2: 7-14

Week 3: 20-11

Week 4:14-13

Week 5: 16-12

Week 6: 18-22

Week 7: 6-2

Week 8: 11-9

Week 9: 11-5

Season: 114 -95 (.545) 

 

16 hours ago, bostonlager said:

 

San Diego at New York Jets

Breece Hall o 19.5 receiving

Austin Ekeler o 32.5 receiving

I knew I should have let this one go. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,353]

6 hours ago, bostonlager said:

 

I knew I should have let this one go. 

I should have George Costanza it and did the opposite since I parlayed them with the Jets +3.5 lol. Hall did have a 15 yard catch that got called back by a iffy block n the back by Wilson.

[WhiteWonder 2,202]

it's just been up and down for me all season. I'm not some big time gambler (although the IRS would say otherwise... and that's a story for a different time ).

Volume wise, sometimes but my wagers are usually $5 a pop, $10 max... plus my little $1 or $2 lotto ticket 20 leg prop parlays. 

I deposited a hundo on fanduel right before NFL season. Used half of it right away on their Super Bowl futures promo. I took the 49ers at +1000 and get a $5 bonus bet for every win up to 10 wins. My account balance after that has fluctuated between $25-$100 which doesn't sound horrible. Getting entertainment and not reloading. But it's sounds worse when you factor in the amount of free bets received from the no risk SGP offers, the super bowl special, etc. 

I have also bet some NBA and MLB playoffs in there as well.  Most recently Mikal Bridges focked me by 3 points on a 5 leg SGP at +2000 

[kilroy69 1,019]

Thank god. 

 

John Hussey, Ron Torbert, and Clay Martin are off this week.

Thursday, Nov. 9

• Panthers at Bears  PRIME — Clete Blakeman

Sunday, Nov. 12

• Colts vs. Patriots (at Frankfurt) NFLN — Tra Blake
• Browns at Ravens  — Land Clark
• Packers at Steelers  — Scott Novak
• Texans at Bengals  — Carl Cheffers
• Saints at Vikings  — Adrian Hill
• 49ers at Jaguars  — Brad Allen
• Titans at Buccaneers  — Alan Eck
• Falcons at Cardinals  — Craig Wrolstad
• Lions at Chargers  — Shawn Smith
• Giants at Cowboys  — Brad Rogers
• Commanders at Seahawks  — Alex Kemp
• Jets at Raiders  NBC PEACOCK — Shawn Hochuli

Monday, Nov. 13

• Broncos at Bills  ESPN ABC ESPN+ — Bill Vinovich

 

[Fireballer 2,422]

2 dudes that were pretty solid on CBB last year

https://x.com/danymclain?s=21&t=DFWeVowvyy-F23jlecK3zw

https://x.com/jeffrosa_?s=21&t=DFWeVowvyy-F23jlecK3zw

[bostonlager 2,497]

Akron/Miami o38 

I think Miami alone can put that up. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,353]

14 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

Akron/Miami o38 

I think Miami alone can put that up. 

Good point and now I need to figure out the other 2 . Buffalo focked me out of a $36 Red Robin last night and I hate that team and always lose if I take them or if I go against them.

[bostonlager 2,497]

12 minutes ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Good point and now I need to figure out the other 2 . Buffalo focked me out of a $36 Red Robin last night and I hate that team and always lose if I take them or if I go against them.

I went to Miami and usually go to a couple games each year and pay close attention to MAC football in general, but got busy and distracted with other things this year so I don't know what to tell you on the other games. Even this one is just me looking to get a little action down tonight. 

 

[BeenHereBefore 1,353]

20 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

I went to Miami and usually go to a couple games each year and pay close attention to MAC football in general, but got busy and distracted with other things this year so I don't know what to tell you on the other games. Even this one is just me looking to get a little action down tonight. 

 

 Yea I remember you saying that and me asking if you saw Big Ben play for them. I'm just making $6 parlays so no biggy and still up good since Sunday. About three years ago I watched a lot of college and knew what teams to take and etc.  This year I haven't kept up or watched a lot myself On these games now I been taking the points if the O/U is low and giving the points if the O/U is high.

[BeenHereBefore 1,353]

For tonight I went with $10 to win $62

Miami O - 17.5

Bowling Green - 10.5

East Mich + 19.5

[bostonlager 2,497]

What a dogsh1t game tonight. No prop plays. 

[listen2me 23 1,567]

@Horseman

Any read on ufc yet?  The 2 main events are as theit line suggests in my eyes, toss ups.  Wondering if you have leans either way.  At least 1 of the fights and maybe both are going to look obvious in hindsight.   

Questions on all 4 fighters involved in my opinion.  Lean as of now is Alex and Pav but could be swayed pretty easily.

[bostonlager 2,497]

21 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

@Horseman

Any read on ufc yet?  The 2 main events are as theit line suggests in my eyes, toss ups.  Wondering if you have leans either way.  At least 1 of the fights and maybe both are going to look obvious in hindsight.   

Questions on all 4 fighters involved in my opinion.  Lean as of now is Alex and Pav but could be swayed pretty easily.

He is in Hawaii. Not sure if he will be checking in here or not for the next 2 weeks. 

[listen2me 23 1,567]

9 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

He is in Hawaii. Not sure if he will be checking in here or not for the next 2 weeks. 

Oh alright.  Its a solid card at least at the top.  Both those fights are interesting.   Ill try and look some more and come with some plays here.   I bet weekly I just don't always post whether its forgetting or whatever.  

[BeenHereBefore 1,353]

46 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

What a dogsh1t game tonight. No prop plays. 

I'm trying to figure what bum team to take and I'm not good on the Thurs games except the Steelers one since I know the team a good bit being a fan.

[mattman7168 27]

Found these parlays suggested elsewhere for Bears/Panthers:

1.
Total Under 38.5
Kmet TD
Thielen o6.5 recep
DJ o52.5 rec yards

2.
Panthers +3.5
Young o219 pass yards
Total Under 38.5
Kmet TD

Props I am considering for parlay:
Foreman o62.5 Ru Yards -115
Foreman o14.5 ru att -130
Kmet o3.5 receps -160
Kmet o34.5 Rec yards -120
Mooney o2.5 receps -140

 

[BeenHereBefore 1,353]

2 minutes ago, mattman7168 said:

Found these parlays suggested elsewhere for Bears/Panthers:

1.
Total Under 38.5
Kmet TD
Thielen o6.5 recep
DJ o52.5 rec yards

2.
Panthers +3.5
Young o219 pass yards
Total Under 38.5
Kmet TD

Props I am considering:
Foreman 062.5 Ru Yards -115
Foreman 014.5 ru att -130
Kmet o3.5 receps -160
Kmet o34.5 Rec yards -120
Mooney o2.5 receps -140

 

2nd one sounds plausible but I always hate those anytime td's and they are parlay killers.

[Mookz 1,288]

On 11/8/2023 at 2:00 PM, bostonlager said:

Akron/Miami o38 

I think Miami alone can put that up. 

Sorry dude, this one's on me.  I trailed you and that is the kiss of death. 

[listen2me 23 1,567]

2 minutes ago, BeenHereBefore said:

2nd one sounds plausible but I always hate those anytime td's and they are parlay killers.

Yeah not a fan of throwing td scorers in unless I am really just going for shlts longshot stuff.   Take a guy anytime scorer while they go off for a great game but dont score.  (In a low scoring game no less)

[bostonlager 2,497]

1 minute ago, Mookz said:

Sorry dude, this one's on me.  I trailed you and that is the kiss of death. 

No, that's on me. I was just looking to get some action down. My college plays have been crap this year. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,353]

Just now, listen2me 23 said:

Yeah not a fan of throwing td scorers in unless I am really just going for shlts longshot stuff.   Take a guy anytime scorer while they go off for a great game but dont score.  (In a low scoring game no less)

Agreed and low scoring game good point. That is why FD always has them somewhere in their suggested parlays.

[listen2me 23 1,567]

7 minutes ago, BeenHereBefore said:

Agreed and low scoring game good point. That is why FD always has them somewhere in their suggested parlays.

NFL has taken a quick downturn in scoring with thr shell coverage.  But if I were to look at TD scorers its in a game that is supposed to have several TDs to go around.   But that said I have nothing against people throwing darts at long odds same game parlays.   I try to limit them.  I usually bet singles or parlaying a 2 or 3 player props I like.   Or a mix of MLs and props.  

I do same games here and there but it is really tough to call a single game that well.  Many people take a bunch of overs and a ML.  I understand betting unders is tough to stomach but playing several overs in 1 game is tough to pull.   Not everyone can have a good game.  

[WhiteWonder 2,202]

what are you guys liking for tonight?  building my no risk SGP.   As Listen2me said, I like to keep it small. Enough to make the +400 qualifying odds. I don't like too many legs for same game.

I don't like DJ Moore over 58.5 yards. Hasn't hit that since week 5 and only 3 times all year.

Kmet has had 18 targets the past two games. I am liking his over 37.5 yards (hit in 4 of his last 6 games) and his over 3.5 receptions. Of course fanduel has that at -150 odds. You could do alt receptions 5+ at +136

TD scorer is tough but Kmet does have 5 on the year. probably staying away though.

Thielen boned me last week in the FFToday 3 and out contest. only 113 people left entering week 9. I was torn between him and Waddle though so ultimately didn't matter. Should have gone with CeeDee.  Thielen over 6.5 receptions if you think he bounces back. He's only been under that twice and once was last week where he still had 5 in a clunker. 

If Carolina comes out running on the Bears, Chuba has taken over 1A duties but I kind of like Miles Sanders at over 21.5 rush yards. I think he can hit that with 5+ carries.

 

Thoughts? 

[listen2me 23 1,567]

Who wants to tank more?  Lol.  Gut says bears win this game.   But maybe by a fg.   That said I havent watched much of any Carolina games.   Exactly what is bryce right right now? 

Not taking anyone off kmet but if he has 5 already how many does he end the season with?  He has a 9td year?  Maybe.    Whats the bears qb good for?  180yds?  

I heard by this one girl from mgm that fg prop overs are nice on Thursdays.   Not something I ever look at but for action one of them over 1.5 fgs may be worth a look.

[BeenHereBefore 1,353]

11 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

Who wants to tank more?  Lol.  Gut says bears win this game.   But maybe by a fg.   That said I havent watched much of any Carolina games.   Exactly what is bryce right right now? 

Not taking anyone off kmet but if he has 5 already how many does he end the season with?  He has a 9td year?  Maybe.    Whats the bears qb good for?  180yds?  

I heard by this one girl from mgm that fg prop overs are nice on Thursdays.   Not something I ever look at but for action one of them over 1.5 fgs may be worth a look.

FG props work a lot when I've used them but sometimes FD doesn't let you add them to SGP.

[bostonlager 2,497]

DK offering a profit boost so I took CHI -3.5 +138.  

Carolina is 1-6-1 ATS this season. 

[listen2me 23 1,567]

5 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

DK offering a profit boost so I took CHI -3.5 +138.  

Carolina is 1-6-1 ATS this season. 

Seems tough.   You wouldn't ponder at least taking it to 3 for a potential push?  

[bostonlager 2,497]

4 minutes ago, listen2me 23 said:

Seems tough.   You wouldn't ponder at least taking it to 3 for a potential push?  

I don’t buy points much. They had a max bet limit of $25 so I’m just rolling with it as an excuse to watch the game. This will likely be bad football all around tonight lol 

[listen2me 23 1,567]

1 minute ago, bostonlager said:

I don’t buy points much. They had a max bet limit of $25 so I’m just rolling with it as an excuse to watch the game. This will likely be bad football all around tonight lol 

Oh buying pts yea.  Just feel tou can look at it as instead of a 50% boost it is a 40% or something.    I know margins matter in volume but when dealing with small bets its a very small difference.    Margins are margins tho

[BeenHereBefore 1,353]

I did a 4 leg $10 for $68.36 SGP and wouldn't allow me to add kickers like I thought.

Car +3

Chuba rush yards O 40.5

Sanders Rush yards O 21.5

Bagnet Pass Yards O 182.5

 

[bostonlager 2,497]

6 minutes ago, BeenHereBefore said:

I did a 4 leg $10 for $68.36 SGP and wouldn't allow me to add kickers like I thought.

Car +3

Chuba rush yards O 40.5

Sanders Rush yards O 21.5

Bagnet Pass Yards O 182.5

 

Chubs started at 45.5 and if I could still get that number I would smash the under. The Bears stop the run well. It all depends on how much Sanders  is involved. 

[WhiteWonder 2,202]

went with 

Kmet 5+ receptions (+136)
Kmet O 37.5 yards (-110)
Sanders O 21.5 yards (-112)
Thielen 40+ yards (-490) 

 

added the thielen yards just to get it over the +400 SGP threshold for the no risk

[BeenHereBefore 1,353]

8 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

Chubs started at 45.5 and if I could still get that number I would smash the under. The Bears stop the run well. It all depends on how much Sanders  is involved. 

I figured they would run more to  not put to much on Young, Couldn't come up with anything else either lol.

[bostonlager 2,497]

Just now, BeenHereBefore said:

I figured they would run more to  not put to much on Young, Couldn't come up with anything else either lol.

Bears don’t get much pressure on the QB even though they are tough against the run. I would look at Mingo overs 

[bostonlager 2,497]

Just noticed the Jets are on prime time again. Can’t these games be flexed?

[WhiteWonder 2,202]

Just now, bostonlager said:

Just noticed the Jets are on prime time again. Can’t these games be flexed?

obviously all due to Rodgers. Still at 4-4 with Rodgers on the sideline and pushing a December return, it's going to draw eyeballs. 

Maybe the Raiders being the opponent is enough to warrant a flex... and as a Jets fan, i'd rather it get flexed. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,353]

I also did a 3 leg

Panthers +3

Louisville - 20.5

Lafayette - 8.5

For a $50 something payout

I ride and die with the Panthers tonight.