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On 6/9/2021 at 11:39 PM, AxeElf said:

It's just a case of the risk being too great for the reward.

If you draft him, you'll be paying for one of the best rookie TE seasons in history, and if he puts up anything short of that, you might as well have gotten a double-digit round TE and picked up a CeeDee Lamb or a Mike Davis in the 5th instead.

You MIGHT get what you paid for, but you're MUCH more likely to get pennies on the dollar.

 

On 9/8/2021 at 1:19 PM, Hardcore troubadour said:

You don’t seem to be too high on Kyle Pitts. I’d think a tuned in guy like you would be. 

 

On 9/8/2021 at 1:36 PM, AxeElf said:

That's probly because you overestimate the value of a rookie TE.

 

On 9/8/2021 at 2:13 PM, Hardcore troubadour said:

I usually do, until confronted with an outlier. Sharps recognize a unique opportunity when presented. 

 

On 9/8/2021 at 2:33 PM, AxeElf said:

More importantly, "sharps" recognize a mirage when they see one.

Missing out on a good player isn't a fantasy crisis.  Investing heavily in a bust is.

Rookie TEs have historically been mirages.  With over $3000 invested in fantasy football this season, the stakes are too high for me to endorse a false positive; I'd much rather risk a false negative.  The odds are on my side, and even if I lose, I don't really lose anything.  If I bet on Pitts being the one-in-a-million "outlier" and win, I get essentially the same thing I would have gotten from Higbee or Gesicki, who I can get several rounds later, anyway.  But if I lose that bet, my season is in jeopardy.

 

Listen to the Elf,
Trophy on the shelf.
Listen to the others,
Go crying to your mothers.

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Sorry but he’s a rookie te, little value in a redraft league.  

 

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He's my only TE on my dynasty team, and of course he's not exactly lighting it up.

I'm planning on rolling with him for the time being though. I don't think any TE I would get off waivers would be much better

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But you knew that as a rookie this would be a tough season.  

In dynasty league picking him made sense.  

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12 hours ago, gopanthers! said:

Is there any hope? Or major panic time? I don't even have a backup on my roster! Fock

I wouldnt go dumping him yet.

but in a redraft he likely ends up with low end TE1 numbers or high end TE2 numbers.  I'd predict his second half will be better than his first half.

if you are nervous about him, you can pick up another TE and start him for a couple weeks until he gets his legs under him.

but there is always an adjustment to the pro game, and for TE's its harder because they are not just receivers, they block too.

but if you were expecting top 5 TE production from him this year, your expectations were likely too high to begin with.

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With the price one had to pay for him in a redraft league, you must keep him. 

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It’s early.

Did you expect him to be the number one tight end coming out the gates?

Going to take time. I would think by middle of the year he will be more of what you expected.

 

And I don’t think that Mike Davis was a better pick.

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1 hour ago, justforbeer said:

And I don’t think that Mike Davis was a better pick.

So, fewer points are better in your league?

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I mean, he has 17 targets... that ties him for 7th most among TEs along with Andrews and Fant... he'd be a hold for me as I think he and Ryan will be gellin a little better in a few weeks. 

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5 minutes ago, rallo said:

I mean, he has 17 targets...

And they have gone down each week, from 8 to 6 to 3.

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He’s 18 in avg points per game non ppr.  

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1 hour ago, rallo said:

I mean, he has 17 targets... that ties him for 7th most among TEs along with Andrews and Fant... he'd be a hold for me as I think he and Ryan will be gellin a little better in a few weeks. 

 

1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

And they have gone down each week, from 8 to 6 to 3.

 

speaking to both of these quotes,

yes, his targets have dropped.  but given what a high profile first round pick he was, he will get his targets.  he hasnt looked terrible.  but maybe a bit out of sync with his new QB and new offense.

rookies have a lot to overcome to perform at a high level.  Especially at the TE position.

Blocking assignments, routes, adjusting to the pro game, adjusting to a new offense...  a new pro scheme.

I figured hed have a slow start.   Like I said earlier.  second half should be better than the first half but they face some good defenses in the second half too. 

You may wanna pick up a TE for next week.(washington)  They've been kind of hit or miss, but should be performing better than what I've seen so far (in my opinion)

It does look like a weaker D after that (Jets) 

but its a schedule against a lot of good Defenses so he will be tested.  a backup TE may be in order just in case your guy is slower to learn the pro game than we thought. 

That being said... make no mistake he has a QB who will feed him the ball if hes able to get open.   so all hope is not lost.  Not yet anyhow.

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The Falcons seem so limited at wr I would think he would have been more productive now.  

Im sure his ff avg per game will increase, but by that time it might matter if your not ff playoff bound. 

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6 hours ago, weepaws said:

But you knew that as a rookie this would be a tough season.  

In dynasty league picking him made sense.  

Yes, I knew that was a high probability but he would still likely be among the waiver wire crowd, which he has been for the most part

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The Giants had Adoree Jackson covering him the whole game. Most teams don’t have a number two CB as good as him. 

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17 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

The Giants had Adoree Jackson covering him the whole game. Most teams don’t have a number two CB as good as him. 

Yes, he's going to get some tough match ups.

It's gonna take him a little longer perhaps to win the match ups with his size in the NFL as opposed to his speed in college.

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On 9/28/2021 at 5:39 PM, polecatt said:

Yes, he's going to get some tough match ups.

It's gonna take him a little longer perhaps to win the match ups with his size in the NFL as opposed to his speed in college.

well, to add to the learning curve, they have been occasionally playing him at WR instead of TE.

so he needs to know the WR playbook as well as the TE playbook.

unless its just a handful of plays where he lines up at WR.   if they are making him know the full WR  Playbook as well, it feels pretty demanding for a rookie TE.

but the fact they are lining him up at WR means they think he can beat DB's and Safetys.  Not necessarily the LB's who normally will cover a TE.

I feel like when this kid does explode, it could be big.

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the problem with Pitts is that he was draft at his ceiling. He needed a near historic season for it to pay off and needed a historic season to exceed it. Him and Ridley were expected to take over Julios absence and it’s a different offense and Ryan looks like a different qb.

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Yea since he’s 18th in avg per game points non ppr . 

 

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On 9/28/2021 at 10:09 AM, polecatt said:

He's my only TE on my dynasty team, and of course he's not exactly lighting it up.

I'm planning on rolling with him for the time being though. I don't think any TE I would get off waivers would be much better

exactly the same for me - actually 2 dynasty leagues.  Used a high draft pick on him because I've always been weak at and scrambling for the TE spot.  I figured maybe I'd draft him, plug him in, and possibly not have to think about that spot for years.

i'm planning to continue with that plan all season, unless he starts losing a bunch of snaps, etc

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56 minutes ago, cavern said:

exactly the same for me - actually 2 dynasty leagues.  Used a high draft pick on him because I've always been weak at and scrambling for the TE spot.  I figured maybe I'd draft him, plug him in, and possibly not have to think about that spot for years.

i'm planning to continue with that plan all season, unless he starts losing a bunch of snaps, etc

Can’t count on a rookie te producing in his rookie season.  

Great pick going forward in a keeper league, keep the faith. 

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It’s Ryan. He’s dragging Ridley down too. Unless you said Ridley would be down as well then you get no points for all this rookie TE stuff. Talent is talent and in a team sport it takes both ends. 

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Antonio Gates didn’t even play college football and in his second year he was a top TE.  Talent is talent. It’s up to the coaches to figure out how to use it and the QB to implement it. Gronk had 10 TD’s his rookie year. 

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52 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

It’s Ryan. He’s dragging Ridley down too. Unless you said Ridley would be down as well then you get no points for all this rookie TE stuff. Talent is talent and in a team sport it takes both ends. 

If you look back at my post about Ridley this past offseason I did say that he would be down and that he was being over valued.  

 

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49 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Antonio Gates didn’t even play college football and in his second year he was a top TE.  Talent is talent. It’s up to the coaches to figure out how to use it and the QB to implement it. Gronk had 10 TD’s his rookie year. 

And how many other rookie te had that much success ?

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He got interfered with on sure TD pass in the end zone which set up a TD (to someone else of course) 2 plays later.

Later on, he caught a 25 yard pass to help setup the game winning field goal.  He had a productive day just not fantasy wise.

Not only is he a rookie but he's a rookie getting double teamed almost every route he runs.

I think he'll finish up as a top 10 TE. 

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On 9/28/2021 at 3:22 PM, AxeElf said:

And they have gone down each week, from 8 to 6 to 3.

And those 3 targets were in the 4th quarter with  the game on the line

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He better hurry if he’s going to be a top ten te this season. He’s 18th in avg.  

But I think he should produce more as this season goes along, if Ryan and the falcons offense can.  

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On 9/29/2021 at 10:44 PM, Serenity Now said:

the problem with Pitts is that he was draft at his ceiling. He needed a near historic season for it to pay off and needed a historic season to exceed it. Him and Ridley were expected to take over Julios absence and it’s a different offense and Ryan looks like a different qb.

100%.

people paid the ceiling price but because he is a rookie, they should have been paying the floor price. (or close to it)

guys who overpaid in dynasty leagues probably will end up okay.  but in a redraft, I wouldnt have paid that price.  I own him in 0 of my leagues and thats because the price to get him was sky high.  I wasnt willing to pay that price for him.  period.

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7 hours ago, weepaws said:

Can’t count on a rookie te producing in his rookie season.  

Great pick going forward in a keeper league, keep the faith. 

no, i agree, but I also can't count on the trash I've had at TE in the past.  Not about to drop him or anything.  will start him every week unless they start taking him off the field (at which point i'd stash him).  I actually think his production will be improving soon and i've been successful despite his presence in my lineup

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22 minutes ago, cavern said:

no, i agree, but I also can't count on the trash I've had at TE in the past.  Not about to drop him or anything.  will start him every week unless they start taking him off the field (at which point i'd stash him).  I actually think his production will be improving soon and i've been successful despite his presence in my lineup

Yea I thought you where in a keeper league, I think you had to draft him, and spend a good amount for him, in a redraft based on what was his ADP he wasn’t worthy.  

In Keeper you just need to wait it out.  

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19 hours ago, weepaws said:

He better hurry if he’s going to be a top ten te this season. He’s 18th in avg.  

But I think he should produce more as this season goes along, if Ryan and the falcons offense can.  

Not really. All it will really take is for him to score a couple of TDs and he will shoot up the rankings

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22 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

It’s Ryan. He’s dragging Ridley down too. Unless you said Ridley would be down as well then you get no points for all this rookie TE stuff. Talent is talent and in a team sport it takes both ends. 

Yes!

He had been my QB on my dynasty team until last season. Luckily I got Justin Herbert as a late round flier last season. He was my starter by week 3, and Ryan was on waivers.

He's gone down hill even more. I say it's similar to Eli's last couple of seasons. He's still capable of a big game, but he's not gonna be consistent.

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1 hour ago, polecatt said:

Not really. All it will really take is for him to score a couple of TDs and he will shoot up the rankings

He better hurry up with those tds.  

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On 9/28/2021 at 11:17 AM, AxeElf said:

So, fewer points are better in your league?

Aged well.

Let’s see, week five and how did Kyle Pitts do?

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2 hours ago, justforbeer said:

Let’s see, week five and how did Kyle Pitts do?

Through five weeks, Kyle Pitts is averaging 4.7 non-PPR fantasy points per week for games in America (which is where all the rest of his will be played).

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24 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Through five weeks, Kyle Pitts is averaging 4.7 non-PPR fantasy points per week for games in America (which is where all the rest of his will be played).

My name's Pitt, and your ass ain't talkin' your way outta this shitt.

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