Ukraine - Doomsday

[JustinCharge 2,397]

14 hours ago, Pimpadeaux said:

At this point it seems the strategy is to throw bodies and a plentiful volume of outdated but mostly working equipment at the enemy in a war of attrition, weapons supplies and a hope for waning support in the West, a barbaric strategy that actually has a chance of success. 

I mean, terrible analysis.

If support in the West fades to the point where we top funding and arming Ukraine, and Russia takes Ukraine, Russia just invades Poland next and support rises way higher again.  Putin doesn't care about Western support for the war.

[JustinCharge 2,397]

You know how the US civil war, the North said the war was about slavery, and the South called it the War of Northern Aggression and said it was about states rights.

Same here. 

Putin says this is a war for the cultural survival of Russia against wokism.  The West says Putin is invading because its a landgrab.

 

[Gepetto 1,374]

I believe Russia's goal is to become a country that is considered a super power, like the Soviet Union before it was.  It's all for more power, influence, and money, in my opinion.

[Pimpadeaux 2,406]

24 minutes ago, JustinCharge said:

I mean, terrible analysis.

If support in the West fades to the point where we top funding and arming Ukraine, and Russia takes Ukraine, Russia just invades Poland next and support rises way higher again.  Putin doesn't care about Western support for the war.

This analysis is not of my making. It's based on what has been written in multiple news sources. What Russia lacks in the modern stuff, it makes up for in manpower and a crap ton of Soviet-era weaponry that are being upgraded and tossed into battle. 

Russia doesn't have the power to beat Poland at this point, much less all the forces NATO would bring into the proceedings.

I understand you're wishing for a larger catastrophe here, but Russia's military has been severely crippled.

 

[nobody 2,692]

Russia got exposed.  They aren't invading anyone.  They thought since they took Crimea so easily, they'd take the rest of Ukraine.  They're not invading Poland.  They couldn't even take down the junior varsity.  The concept is just stupid.

[JustinCharge 2,397]

3 minutes ago, nobody said:

Russia got exposed.  They aren't invading anyone.  They thought since they took Crimea so easily, they'd take the rest of Ukraine.  They're not invading Poland.  They couldn't even take down the junior varsity.  The concept is just stupid.

it is a logical fallacy to say "they wont because its stupid".  Specifically it is called Appeal to the Stone

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appeal_to_the_stone

Appeal to the stone, also known as argumentum ad lapidem, is a logical fallacy that dismisses an argument as untrue or absurd. The dismissal is made by stating or reiterating that the argument is absurd, without providing further argumentation. This theory is closely tied to proof by assertion due to the lack of evidence behind the statement and its attempt to persuade without providing any evidence.

[Hardcore troubadour 15,515]

China and Russia getting together shouldn’t be too much of a concern.  

[GobbleDog 997]

1 hour ago, JustinCharge said:

You have to understand why Russia is fighting.  They are fighting to protect their culture and way of life from the woke West.  Of course they will invade Poland after Ukraine.  They must.  The problem is the Western MSM is lying to everyone by not telling people why Russia is doing this.  So your perception of this war depends upon how much of the MSM lies you are accepting.  Putin really will not stop. 

The irony.

Fighting to protect culture from the woke....?  How much Russian tv are you watching?  That's Putin's propaganda. Well, that and lots of other ridiculous stuff....  "we're going to destroy Nazi's in Ukraine", and "the West wants to annihilate us", etc.

Was Russia fighting to protect their culture and way of life from the woke West when they annexed Crimea in 2014?  How about when they invaded Georgia in 2008 and kept 20% of the land? What about the time they carpet bombed Chechnya?  Or delivered chemical weapons to Syria? 

None of those times, but just this time?  Give me a break. Putin wants the old empire back along with some geographical/economic benefits in having Crimea.  Sticking it to the U.S. and Europe is another feather in the cap, but "protecting Russia's culture for the woke West" is not a main objective.

[JustinCharge 2,397]

2 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

The irony.

Fighting to protect culture from the woke....?  How much Russian tv are you watching?  That's Putin's propaganda. Well, that and lots of other ridiculous stuff....  "we're going to destroy Nazi's in Ukraine", and "the West wants to annihilate us", etc.

Was Russia fighting to protect their culture and way of life from the woke West when they annexed Crimea in 2014?  How about when they invaded Georgia in 2008 and kept 20% of the land? What about the time they carpet bombed Chechnya?  Or delivered chemical weapons to Syria? 

None of those times, but just this time?  Give me a break. Putin wants the old empire back along with some geographical/economic benefits in having Crimea.  Sticking it to the U.S. and Europe is another feather in the cap, but "protecting Russia's culture for the woke West" is not a main objective.

have you listened to Putins speeches since about 2006?  There a huge archive of it you know.  He has consistently warned about woke ideology being satanic and the need to stop it.  Where is your evidence it is just propaganda?  Did you know hes been talking about since 2006?  When someone spends 17 years bashing woke culture, you need to present evidence to claim its all made up.

You are also doing appeal to the stone.  You are saying I am wrong because I am wrong. I've never seen any.  I see Russia building massive Orthodox cathedrals in the past 17 years.  I see him welcoming and celebrating the Orthodox Church.  There is nothing to back your case.

[Hardcore troubadour 15,515]

4 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

The irony.

Fighting to protect culture from the woke....?  How much Russian tv are you watching?  That's Putin's propaganda. Well, that and lots of other ridiculous stuff....  "we're going to destroy Nazi's in Ukraine", and "the West wants to annihilate us", etc.

Was Russia fighting to protect their culture and way of life from the woke West when they annexed Crimea in 2014?  How about when they invaded Georgia in 2008 and kept 20% of the land? What about the time they carpet bombed Chechnya?  Or delivered chemical weapons to Syria? 

None of those times, but just this time?  Give me a break. Putin wants the old empire back along with some geographical/economic benefits in having Crimea.  Sticking it to the U.S. and Europe is another feather in the cap, but "protecting Russia's culture for the woke West" is not a main objective.

There are Nazis in Ukraine.   Just sayin. 

[GutterBoy 2,899]

16 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

There are Nazis in Ukraine.   Just sayin. 

There are Nazis in the US.  You're retarded.

[Hardcore troubadour 15,515]

15 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

There are Nazis in the US.  You're retarded.

 The Azov regiment of the Ukraine defense forces. Look it up, big mouth.  

[JustinCharge 2,397]

15 minutes ago, GutterBoy said:

There are Nazis in the US.  You're retarded.

you mean there are people in the US that try to divide people over race?  that think one race is inferior to others? 

[GobbleDog 997]

33 minutes ago, JustinCharge said:

have you listened to Putins speeches since about 2006?  There a huge archive of it you know.  He has consistently warned about woke ideology being satanic and the need to stop it.  Where is your evidence it is just propaganda?  Did you know hes been talking about since 2006?  When someone spends 17 years bashing woke culture, you need to present evidence to claim its all made up.

You are also doing appeal to the stone.  You are saying I am wrong because I am wrong. I've never seen any.  I see Russia building massive Orthodox cathedrals in the past 17 years.  I see him welcoming and celebrating the Orthodox Church.  There is nothing to back your case.

I've heard the speeches. Russians are religious and hate gays. So of course Putin plays to that, just like a ex-KBG and politician would do.

So you honestly believe Putin keeps invading, annexing, and wasting so many lives... "just because of the woke West".?.  Not to secure Russia's eastern flank, or control oil pipelines, or get land bridge to Crimea, or control of Black Sea, or rebuild the empire, etc... nope. He just wants to stop the woke West. 

[Pimpadeaux 2,406]

31 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

I've heard the speeches. Russians are religious and hate gays. So of course Putin plays to that, just like a ex-KBG and politician would do.

So you honestly believe Putin keeps invading, annexing, and wasting so many lives... "just because of the woke West".?.  Not to secure Russia's eastern flank, or control oil pipelines, or get land bridge to Crimea, or control of Black Sea, or rebuild the empire, etc... nope. He just wants to stop the woke West. 

He can't look at the world through anything other than an annihilation keyhole. 

Anyhoo, the Russians are saying they have Bakhmut almost surrounded. Glad they're overjoyed about losing thousands of soldiers over a razed small town with no strategic military value.

[seafoam1 3,087]

26 minutes ago, Pimpadeaux said:

He can't look at the world through anything other than an annihilation keyhole. 

Anyhoo, the Russians are saying they have Bakhmut almost surrounded. Glad they're overjoyed about losing thousands of soldiers over a razed small town with no strategic military value.

It will be nice to see Russia finally finish off Ukraine so the idiots like biden and his voters can just get over it and then the US will stop sending billions over their way.

What a focking mess the liberals are. They are screwing our own country to no end because of biden's need for a bigger bank account. 

[Pimpadeaux 2,406]

1 minute ago, seafoam1 said:

It will be nice to see Russia finally finish off Ukraine so the idiots like biden and his voters can just get over it and then the US will stop sending billions over their way.

What a focking mess the liberals are. They are screwing our own country to no end because of biden's need for a bigger bank account. 

How do you feel about the Republicans who support our efforts?

[seafoam1 3,087]

Just now, Pimpadeaux said:

How do you feel about the Republicans who support our efforts?

I think anyone who supports sending money and equipment to Ukraine are nuts. I have no need for liberals nor RINOs. 

[Pimpadeaux 2,406]

13 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

I think anyone who supports sending money and equipment to Ukraine are nuts. I have no need for liberals nor RINOs. 

Likewise, they have no need for you.

[seafoam1 3,087]

9 minutes ago, Pimpadeaux said:

Likewise, they have no need for you.

I get it. A lot of liberal idiots don't want intelligent people around. They have people like you to string along and to vote them into power. That's nothing new. 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,515]

Trump said he could get a peace agreement in 24 hours. And he’s right. Not because he’s some great statesman.  Because it’s so Fockin easy if you want it. But you gotta want it, and Biden and the Chickenhawk neocons don’t. A draft dodger and a bunch of elitist, soft bellied professional nothings  are pushing us towards a disaster. 

[Pimpadeaux 2,406]

36 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Trump said he could get a peace agreement in 24 hours. And he’s right. Not because he’s some great statesman.  Because it’s so Fockin easy if you want it. But you gotta want it, and Biden and the Chickenhawk neocons don’t. A draft dodger and a bunch of elitist, soft bellied professional nothings  are pushing us towards a disaster. 

He says a lot of crap but doesn't back it up with an actual plan. 

So go negotiate a peace agreement in 24 hours, bruh!

[Hardcore troubadour 15,515]

Just now, Pimpadeaux said:

He says a lot of crap but doesn't back it up with an actual plan. 

So go negotiate a peace agreement in 24 hours, bruh!

Sure.  Russia keeps the Donbas and the US agrees to veto Ukraines entrance into NATO. And we remove all of our biolabs. Boom. 

[KSB2424 3,148]

I think the US, as a world leader, should match the highest donation of support that the next TWO countries in NATO give combined.   Fair?

[KSB2424 3,148]

Okay fine, the largest European Country in NATO who is significantly closer to Ukraine than the U.S.   We will TRIPLE their support.  Fair?

[KSB2424 3,148]

Okay Fine Fine!  Lets do a total financial support for Ukraine by NATO Nations as a percentage of GDP.  Lets meet that metric for the top Euro nation, even though Europe is the neighboring countries and we are almost on the other side of the earth......  Fair?

[wiffleball 4,790]

I think maybe we should look into this. It's my understanding that in many instances, we'll see a country like Poland donate their old school stuff to ukraine. In return, we promise to sell them are top of the line stuff.  

 

Just because you hear the word aid, doesn't mean that folks aren't paying for a hell of a lot of s***. I know Germany and Poland have really stepped up there spending. As have many other countries. And guess who they're spending it with?

[GutterBoy 2,899]

5 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

 The Azov regiment of the Ukraine defense forces. Look it up, big mouth.  

We posted all about this a year ago, dummy.

[GutterBoy 2,899]

5 hours ago, JustinCharge said:

you mean there are people in the US that try to divide people over race?  that think one race is inferior to others? 

Yes, some are on this board.

[nobody 2,692]

3 hours ago, KSB2424 said:

I think the US, as a world leader, should match the highest donation of support that the next TWO countries in NATO give combined.   Fair?

Maybe match percentage of gdp

[nobody 2,692]

6 hours ago, JustinCharge said:

have you listened to Putins speeches since about 2006?  There a huge archive of it you know.  He has consistently warned about woke ideology being satanic and the need to stop it.  Where is your evidence it is just propaganda?  Did you know hes been talking about since 2006?  When someone spends 17 years bashing woke culture, you need to present evidence to claim its all made up.

You are also doing appeal to the stone.  You are saying I am wrong because I am wrong. I've never seen any.  I see Russia building massive Orthodox cathedrals in the past 17 years.  I see him welcoming and celebrating the Orthodox Church.  There is nothing to back your case.

You are about as dumb as a stone.  Negative 2 months and counting until the guaranteed Russian nuclear strike on the US. 

The reason it's dumb is that invading Poland doesn't achieve what you said Putin wants.  Nevermind that that's propaganda.  And oooohhhh speeches!  Think about all the absolute bullshìt that gets spewed by politicians in this country.  Now think about the amount of pure and utter horse shìt putin can spew when he owns the media and will just disappear opposition.

Think past your fear (or perhaps your hopes) for one minute.

[Pimpadeaux 2,406]

4 hours ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Sure.  Russia keeps the Donbas and the US agrees to veto Ukraines entrance into NATO. And we remove all of our biolabs. Boom. 

This ain't happening, seeing as Russia isn't making any concessions here. 

Russia pulls out of Donbas. Russia keeps Crimea. Ukraine doesn't join NATO in exchange for Russia making reparations and helping rebuild Ukraine. The West slowly backs off sanctions.

[League Champion 1,911]

If Putin doesn't take Ukraine this year then they're looking at another 10-20+ year war. For Ukraine to even have a chance they'll need to attack within Russian borders. When it get real for Russian civilians is when it gets real. 

Again, Putin is not leaving Ukraine with his tail between his legs. He's either going wipe Ukraine off the map before he's done or hold the major oil fields, mines, etc. 

Meanwhile we'll just keep throwing money at them and pretend it's nobel. 

[Pimpadeaux 2,406]

3 hours ago, League Champion said:

If Putin doesn't take Ukraine this year then they're looking at another 10-20+ year war. For Ukraine to even have a chance they'll need to attack within Russian borders. When it get real for Russian civilians is when it gets real. 

Again, Putin is not leaving Ukraine with his tail between his legs. He's either going wipe Ukraine off the map before he's done or hold the major oil fields, mines, etc. 

Meanwhile we'll just keep throwing money at them and pretend it's nobel. 

I haven't drilled down into it yet, but from I've read on the surface, I don't have an issue with there being more accountability, which lawmakers on both sides are requesting.

I still support what we're doing over there, but this looks like a war that will drag on for years and result in ungodly destruction and death toll.

[Hardcore troubadour 15,515]

11 hours ago, GutterBoy said:

We posted all about this a year ago, dummy.

And new confirmation has emerged. I too thought it was Russian propaganda.  It’s not. No one is disputing it anymore. Perhaps we shouldn’t believe the first thing we hear. The first casualty of war is the truth. 

[Baker Boy 1,703]

On 3/2/2023 at 3:20 PM, GobbleDog said:

I was thinking same. Basically - stop Russia now, or your citizens will eventually die fighting them. 

People keep saying "Russia won't stop - Poland is next"... hard to believe Russia would really attack a NATO member.  It's possible I guess, but more likely - the remainder of Georgia they didn't take in 2008 would've been next. 

 

On 2/27/2023 at 4:56 PM, Baker Boy said:

I was talking to an old guy about the Ukraine yesterday. He said they pulled the same crap on us with Vietnam, the Domino Effect. That war went on for over a decade.

Biden said we’re in this for as long as it takes. How long do you think it’ll take?

 

[KSB2424 3,148]

11 hours ago, nobody said:

Maybe match percentage of gdp

You can do that too. Go for it.  Do population size.  Any metric you want.  
 

And we’re almost on the other side of the planet.  
 

 

[GobbleDog 997]

20 minutes ago, Baker Boy said:

I was talking to an old guy about the Ukraine yesterday. He said they pulled the same crap on us with Vietnam, the Domino Effect. That war went on for over a decade.

Biden said we’re in this for as long as it takes. How long do you think it’ll take?

Probably Putin's best strategy... Russia can't win the short term, so play the long game. Vietnam does have some differences - mainly the USSR wasn't being cut off internationally and their population wasn't dying.

Gotta wonder how long Russia can afford war and/or how long the population supports it as they die and the economy goes in the sh*tter.  Even if Russia were to miraculously defeat Ukraine today, Russia's future is dire. Permanently lost Europe as oil/gas customers and foreign investment. Massive demographic problem (not enough young) and internationally isolated aside from China who's suddenly become the senior partner in a previously equal relationship.

I'd guess Putin is not giving up until at least the 2024 US election. He's hoping the next US President won't support Ukraine and can be easily manipulated (like Trump - I voted for Trump, but it's true).

So to answer the question, I think the war lasts at least 2 more years. Then depending on the state of the war, Russia's economy, population support, and who's president of the US.... Russia will decide whether to throw in the towel (if they even have a choice at that point) or to continue fighting even though it's slowly killing their future.

[Hardcore troubadour 15,515]

India and China, the two most populated countries on the planet, are buying Russian Oil in great numbers. 

[GobbleDog 997]

21 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

India and China, the two most populated countries on the planet, are buying Russian Oil in great numbers. 

True ... at $35+- a barrel, not much profit.

Pissing off Saudi's in the process who sent $400 million in aid to Ukraine last week.