Taking a flier on a backup RB question?

[Kopy 491]

Deep rostered, 12 team dynasty league.

I gotta make 1 more cut for the draft. For me it's come down to Zach Moss colts or Pierre Strong patriots.

Which one to keep, which one to kick to the curb. There's been no recent news on either.

 

[Ray_T 591]

I think Moss is the better player.   

But he only plays when Taylor gets hurt.   Nearly all his stats last year came while Taylor was out.   Belecheck likes to play all of his RB's so Strong is likely the better choice assuming the starters ahead of both RB's remain healthy.

but for the same reasons, his upside is also limited for the same reason.   if Stevenson gets hurt he wont become the starter, he will lead a committee. 

That said, the upside with Moss is a whole lot better than it is with Strong.   When Taylor got hurt he played a lot....... so he has a lower floor and higher ceiling in my opinion.

If you actually have Taylor on your team, then I'd say keep him for sure.   hes more valueable to you in that scenario.

 

[DocNiner 44]

Yeah if I had to choose one to keep it would be Moss. As.said he'll get more playing time if Taylor's hurt, God forbid that.doesn't happen. He'll get carries as well to spell Taylor so.I think he holds more value over Strong.

[weepaws 2,460]

Ppr I would keep Strong.  

[JammyJr 0]

On 6/27/2023 at 1:36 AM, weepaws said:

Ppr I would keep Strong.  

For me too

[giraldi02 470]

Kinda dislike both tbh, but in this case I'd keep Strong. I think he can get some run as a hurry up offense / change of pace back. 

Honestly for Indy, i kinda like a different backup there. Evan Hull might steal some snaps from Moss as time goes on this season.

[taco breath 419]

same situation, keeping strong.

[polecatt 403]

I would probably keep Moss. He seems to be in a back up role that's solid. Clearly JT is their main guy but should he get knicked up or worse, Moss steps right in.

Who knows? There's a chance he carves out a red zone role and scores some TDs.

Any RB for the Patriots is just unpredictable. He's not on top their depth chart either, if that means much. He will probably have a big game or two, but good luck knowing when that's gonna be vs the games he does nothing.

[RareN64Dream 9]

Zack Moss is a frustrating RB to own, imo. Almost every time you think he will do good, he does nothing. Then, when you bench him he owns or you dropped him already. But, I think that is from when he was on the Bills.

[Ray_T 591]

14 hours ago, polecatt said:

Any RB for the Patriots is just unpredictable.

this is the right answer.

with the Pats, todays starter is tomorrows bench warmer.   they tend to do most of their running by committee and each RB has a role and certain situations they specialize in.  They occasionally have fantasy worthy RB's but its inconsistent at best.

I've avoided Pats RB's for fantasy over the last decade (or a bit longer) for this very reason even when I have liked the player and have been happy with that decision.

its generally a fantasy wasteland for RB owners in fantasy.    good players.... good team.... but not so good for fantasy.

[weepaws 2,460]

4 hours ago, RareN64Dream said:

Zack Moss is a frustrating RB to own, imo. Almost every time you think he will do good, he does nothing. Then, when you bench him he owns or you dropped him already. But, I think that is from when he was on the Bills.

Is Moss your pick? 

[weepaws 2,460]

4 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

this is the right answer.

with the Pats, todays starter is tomorrows bench warmer.   they tend to do most of their running by committee and each RB has a role and certain situations they specialize in.  They occasionally have fantasy worthy RB's but its inconsistent at best.

I've avoided Pats RB's for fantasy over the last decade (or a bit longer) for this very reason even when I have liked the player and have been happy with that decision.

its generally a fantasy wasteland for RB owners in fantasy.    good players.... good team.... but not so good for fantasy.

That is not the right answer in a .5 ppr or full ppr.  Strong is going to get a lot of action in the passing game.  

 

[RareN64Dream 9]

My guess is Pats RB guy probably more valuable next season, but purely a guess.

[nobody 2,043]

The off the top of my head running backs listed as backups on the depth chart rankings

1. Damien Harris (because I think he's better than James Cook)
2. AJ Dillon
3. Rashaad Penny
4. Elijah Mitchell
5. Tyler Allgeier
6. Jamal Williams
7. Gus Edwards
8. Jaylen Warren
9. Ty Chandler
10. Jamyr Gibbs
11. Tyjae Spears
12. Samaje Perine
13. Jerome Ford

[weepaws 2,460]

Charbonnet, C Brown, Singletary, Bigsby, Strong, Gibson, Foreman, Montgomery some depth charts show Gibbs as the Lions rb1. 

 

[weepaws 2,460]

2 hours ago, nobody said:

The off the top of my head running backs listed as backups on the depth chart rankings

1. Damien Harris (because I think he's better than James Cook)
2. AJ Dillon
3. Rashaad Penny
4. Elijah Mitchell
5. Tyler Allgeier
6. Jamal Williams
7. Gus Edwards
8. Jaylen Warren
9. Ty Chandler
10. Jamyr Gibbs
11. Tyjae Spears
12. Samaje Perine
13. Jerome Ford

Is this list also your rankings with Harris number one?

[Donkey 34]

Strong is the backup to Stevenson, much more upside.

[Ray_T 591]

On 7/7/2023 at 7:58 PM, weepaws said:

That is not the right answer in a .5 ppr or full ppr.  Strong is going to get a lot of action in the passing game.  

 

I was commenting on the way Belechek rotates his backs.   no one back gets all the reps so none of them will be RB1.    from that perspective I am 100% right.  I just probably didnt explain it clearly enough.

now we are not looking at starters here, we are looking at backups.  I've already stated earlier, if both starters are healthy  Strong is likely the better play as he gets regular reps as part of that committee.  

while Moss got almost no reps until an injury happened and he was thrust ito the starting role.   I see no reason that this situation changes next year.

so Moss may be the better player, but I dont think he gets nearly the reps if the starter there remains healthy.   but if the starter goes down Moss gets all the reps and he becomes substantially more valuable.

so Moss is valuable if you also have the starter in Indy (JT)  otherwise, not so much....

 

 

[weepaws 2,460]

Reason I like Strong a lot more then Moss, is Strong is going to play even with a healthy Stevenson, Strong is going to get a lot of playing in the passing, the Pats depth at rb after Stevenson and Strong looks a little weak to me.  

So if Stevenson as to go down Strong would take over the running duties as well.  

Moss is a bench warmer until or if Taylor get hurt.   

[nobody 2,043]

From a talent standpoint, I think Pierre Strong is a better back than Moss, and Strong will probably have more value during the season if Ramondre isn't hurt, but in a situation where both Stevenson and Taylor get hurt, I'd rather have Moss since the Pats will almost certainly pull some BS with the rotation.

Given I almost always go talent over situation in close calls like these, and it's dynasty so Strong could end up on another team after awhile, I suppose I roll the dice with Strong.  

[Belkster 0]

On 7/10/2023 at 10:43 PM, nobody said:

From a talent standpoint, I think Pierre Strong is a better back than Moss, and Strong will probably have more value during the season if Ramondre isn't hurt, but in a situation where both Stevenson and Taylor get hurt, I'd rather have Moss since the Pats will almost certainly pull some BS with the rotation.

Given I almost always go talent over situation in close calls like these, and it's dynasty so Strong could end up on another team after awhile, I suppose I roll the dice with Strong. Just like I'm rolling the dice in some craps here. Yes, it's not the same, but you get the point. You can try to guess the winnings. It will be like guessing the outcome of games.

There's also the possibility that Strong gets hurt too. Which one of them is less susceptible to hurt?

[weepaws 2,460]

34 minutes ago, Belkster said:

There's also the possibility that Strong gets hurt too. Which one of them is less susceptible to hurt?

Which player in the nfl would you pick at the rb position? 

[Ray_T 591]

19 hours ago, Belkster said:

There's also the possibility that Strong gets hurt too. Which one of them is less susceptible to hurt?

honestly the more relevant question is how susceptible is the starter to getting hurt.     Cuz thats likely what needs to happen for either of these guys to get significant playing time.

Strong already has a role as part of a committee but that role needs to expand if hes gonna have significant value (RB2)in my opinion.   same situation applies to Moss.

Strong takes a bit more value in a PPR format.  I dont like him much in standard leagues.  

[Showboat 145]

10 hours ago, Ray_T said:

Strong already has a role as part of a committee but that role needs to expand if hes gonna have significant value (RB2)in my opinion.   same situation applies to Moss.

Strong takes a bit more value in a PPR format.  I dont like him much in standard leagues.  

I don't know that I've seen evidence to suggest that Strong would have a significant role in a committee.  There is kind of an assumption that BB always uses a RBBC, but every few years he seems to plug a different player into a featured role that leads to pretty big RB numbers:

Antowain Smith in 2001

Corey Dillon in 2004

BenJarvus Green-Ellis in 2010

Stevan Ridley in 2012

LeGarrette Blount in 2016

Damien Harris in 2021

[Ray_T 591]

7 hours ago, Showboat said:

I don't know that I've seen evidence to suggest that Strong would have a significant role in a committee.  There is kind of an assumption that BB always uses a RBBC, but every few years he seems to plug a different player into a featured role that leads to pretty big RB numbers:

Antowain Smith in 2001

Corey Dillon in 2004

BenJarvus Green-Ellis in 2010

Stevan Ridley in 2012

LeGarrette Blount in 2016

Damien Harris in 2021

yeah but if you look at the RB numbers for the team as a whole, usually your starter gets the vast majority of the rushing yards.    there is another player who gets the vast majority of the receiving yards.  and a third player gets a lot of the short yardage carries (and TD)

it doesnt always work out this way.   the combination often will change from year to year (and even game to game) which is why I really dont like RB's from the pats.

While Brady was there, the pass catcher is more reliable from week to week than anyone else most years.

thats really the issue.  last years starter could be this years bum.  and some years there isnt really one person you can pin down as their starter.

[polecatt 403]

9 hours ago, Showboat said:

I don't know that I've seen evidence to suggest that Strong would have a significant role in a committee.  There is kind of an assumption that BB always uses a RBBC, but every few years he seems to plug a different player into a featured role that leads to pretty big RB numbers:

Antowain Smith in 2001

Corey Dillon in 2004

BenJarvus Green-Ellis in 2010

Stevan Ridley in 2012

LeGarrette Blount in 2016

Damien Harris in 2021

Outside of that, James White has been a PPR stud on multiple occasions...

It's not that they don't have good RBs, it's that they're never consistent

[weepaws 2,460]

11 hours ago, Showboat said:

I don't know that I've seen evidence to suggest that Strong would have a significant role in a committee.  There is kind of an assumption that BB always uses a RBBC, but every few years he seems to plug a different player into a featured role that leads to pretty big RB numbers:

Antowain Smith in 2001

Corey Dillon in 2004

BenJarvus Green-Ellis in 2010

Stevan Ridley in 2012

LeGarrette Blount in 2016

Damien Harris in 2021

It’s a good thing for Strong these others rb are now not on the team.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

On 6/26/2023 at 10:55 AM, Kopy said:

Deep rostered, 12 team dynasty league.

I gotta make 1 more cut for the draft. For me it's come down to Zach Moss colts or Pierre Strong patriots.

Which one to keep, which one to kick to the curb. There's been no recent news on either.

 

Easy, Pierre Strong.

Moss is a backup.  A backup who even on limited touches (the most he got in a season is 126), can't stay healthy.  Last year, Buffalo traded him to a team... along with a 5th round draft pick, for a player that does the same job.

Strong?  I don't really know.  But, what I do know is that Belichick has no loyalty to any offensive player not named Brady or Gronkowski.  Today, their starting RB is Stevenson.  Next year, it could be Strong.  Who knows.  What I do know is that he's not Zack Moss.  Moss will never be a starter.  Could he get emergency starts here and there?  Sure, but if he does, are you going to start him?  Not likely.  Give me potential over pedestrian.

[DrG 94]

Kopy, it might come down to age, player history and the rest of your roster.  I forget how old JT is but rbs degrade after 25. Moss seems to have clearer ‘handcuff’ type upside later in the season. String’s role will be Patriotically unpredictable, both as to floor and ceiling.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

1 hour ago, DrG said:

Kopy, it might come down to age, player history and the rest of your roster.  I forget how old JT is but rbs degrade after 25. Moss seems to have clearer ‘handcuff’ type upside later in the season. String’s role will be Patriotically unpredictable, both as to floor and ceiling.

Age isn't the predictor for decline as much as workload.

[weepaws 2,460]

Wouldn’t we be seeing more 35 plus yr old Rbs playing if age  wasn’t as much of factor has usage.  

[Ray_T 591]

On 7/16/2023 at 11:17 AM, TBayXXXVII said:

Age isn't the predictor for decline as much as workload.

I have not run the stats, but I'd guess if running a regression to find out, the results would indicate that usage and age are both related to each other.

most of your older backs have more touches.

so we are likely looking at a chicken and egg thing.   In the past RB's with high usage expired at age 30 with very few notable exceptions.    in recent times some pass catching RB's have been able to stay relevant beyond the age of 30 but thats also likely due to taking less hits as they dont actually run the ball between the tackles all that often (which is likely where most of your big hits take place)

anyhow just some food for your thoughts.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

I have not run the stats, but I'd guess if running a regression to find out, the results would indicate that usage and age are both related to each other.

most of your older backs have more touches.

so we are likely looking at a chicken and egg thing.   In the past RB's with high usage expired at age 30 with very few notable exceptions.    in recent times some pass catching RB's have been able to stay relevant beyond the age of 30 but thats also likely due to taking less hits as they dont actually run the ball between the tackles all that often (which is likely where most of your big hits take place)

anyhow just some food for your thoughts.

Generally, you are correct that age and usage go hand-in-hand, but if you have 2 guys... one is 27 and the other is 25, the 27 year old is averaging 200 touches per year and the other 25 year old is averaging 300, the 27 year old has a better chance of yielding a better return on investment than the 25 year on a 3 year contract.  That's the point I'm making.

[DrG 94]

Workload definitely matters, but so does age. Both correlative. Those 1/10s of a second speed declinations matter as well.

[League Champion 1,593]

If the Browns love Jerome Ford as much as they are touting him, and he gets that "Kareem Hunt" roll, look out.

I can't imagine that they'll bring in another RB 

[weepaws 2,460]

I’ll change my pick to Z Moss. 

[GobbleDog 816]

On 7/22/2023 at 10:36 PM, League Champion said:

If the Browns love Jerome Ford as much as they are touting him, and he gets that "Kareem Hunt" roll, look out.

I can't imagine that they'll bring in another RB 

My mock drafts mean nothing...  keep stealing Ford in the 11th, 12th, 13th rounds. Seriously doubt I'll get away with that after pre-season.

[Kopy 491]

Thanks for the discussion you guy's had here.

I decided to keep Moss.

 

[weepaws 2,460]

I’m going back with P Strong.  

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

In the 4 games to end last season, Moss started 3 of them.  In the one he didn't, he had 24 carries.  In those games, he totaled 4 receptions, 346 yards, and 1 td, that's 44 points, an average of 11 fpg.  That's not a good average.  It's worse when you realize that in one of those games he had 21 of those 44 points... against Houston.

Moss stinks.  He's not even worth a roster spot.  Just how I see it.  Strong has an upside, sure, it's a bit of a long shot, bu Moss only has a downside.

If I'm going flyer on the Colts backfield, I'm taking Hull, not Moss.