Those of you who've drafted already, what were the biggest surprises?

[DaBeerz 88]

12 teams, 1 player Keeper 1/2 PPR league (full PPR for TE) with some big play scoring bonuses. 

What surprised me...


1. How far Joe Burrow fell, I thought he might be a keeper or 1st round at least. He went mid-second. I get the calf injury and all that but I think he will be fine. 

2. Dalvin Cook was on the board until round 5 and might just be a huge steal if he produces on the Jets...time will tell. 

3. I could be wrong but this might be "year of the QB" as usually in our league people tend to keep RB and draft their QB later. 5 QB were kept, and only 2 RB...that feels like a big change from previous years where people tend to keep any solid RB1 and draft QB later. 

What are you seeing in your drafts?

[remote controller 133]

The apparent value throughout the whole draft.

[GobbleDog 816]

Just now, remote controller said:

The apparent value throughout the whole draft.

Concise, yet totally vague.

Remote lives in the Matrix. 

[Showboat 145]

4 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Concise, yet totally vague.

Remote lives in the Matrix. 

He got the award for outstanding achievement in the field of excellence.

[rallo 132]

Dak and Richardson went way higher than I expected. Lots of Wr value in rounds 4-6. Potential RB value(although risky) in rounds 3-4. Top 5 TEs going early prior to round 4. Elite Qbs going earlier than expected also.

[League Champion 1,593]

I'm still shocked that Sky Moore isn't getting way more attention. He's in the slot this season and Mahomes wears out the slot. And with Toney always banged up, he can easily be a WR1 before it's all over. 

I think Rashaad White is a steal at his ADP, Mark Andrews fell in a few drafts, Najee Harris is a steal where he's been going.and how about Gabe Davis? He's healthy, a contract year. Not a bad WR3 - 4 where he's going. 

I see amazing value in redraft leagues this season. 

[Ray_T 591]

I am seeing a whole lot of depth at WR.   more than I have ever seen.   It is absolutely insane.  

 

[GobbleDog 816]

13 hours ago, League Champion said:

I'm still shocked that Sky Moore isn't getting way more attention. He's in the slot this season and Mahomes wears out the slot. And with Toney always banged up, he can easily be a WR1 before it's all over. 

I think Rashaad White is a steal at his ADP, Mark Andrews fell in a few drafts, Najee Harris is a steal where he's been going.and how about Gabe Davis? He's healthy, a contract year. Not a bad WR3 - 4 where he's going.

I like every player mentioned... but Najee Harris makes me nervous. I'd been mock drafting him late 3rd because he's supposedly the last potential 300+ touch back left.  But I'm having second thoughts. The metrics just aren't impressive.

Najee blew up his rookie year, but that was entirely due to an insane 381 touches, 74 of which were cheap dump offs from Rothlesburger's spent arm. But his running efficiency wasn't great. Boring metric rankings: True yac 53rd, Yd per touch 41st, Breakaway rate 28th, Yds created per touch 24th, etc. Last year, his touches dropped to 313 with almost identical metrics, and in some categories worse.

Najee does one thing great - evades first tackle, ranked 2nd and 4th respective years. Sounds impressive, but it's meaningless when he does virtually nothing with it after that.  On the flip side, Jaylen Warren should have a more prominent roll considering his rushing metrics were rather impressive. Beginning to wonder if the Steelers just don't go full rotation. Why keep giving nearly all the carries to a guy who does nothing with it? Throw in Pickett (worst starting qb in league IMO) and Najee's appeal starts looking much less appealing.

Food for thought

[wolves111 69]

If I remember the offensive line was pretty bad as well. 
 

[weepaws 2,461]

I keep trying out the no rb theory, and go wr first three rounds in mocks, 12-14 team mocks, don’t like it. I like the rb/wr or wr/rb ideal, 

To much good depth at Wr, and Rbs fall off to early.  Doesn’t seem like a lot of other drafters are going all on at wr.  

[weepaws 2,461]

7 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

I like every player mentioned... but Najee Harris makes me nervous. I'd been mock drafting him late 3rd because he's supposedly the last potential 300+ touch back left.  But I'm having second thoughts. The metrics just aren't impressive.

Najee blew up his rookie year, but that was entirely due to an insane 381 touches, 74 of which were cheap dump offs from Rothlesburger's spent arm. But his running efficiency wasn't great. Boring metric ranks among Rbs: True yac 53rd, Yd per touch 41st, Breakaway rate 28th, Yds created per touch 24th, etc. Last year, his touches dropped to 313 with almost identical metrics, and in some categories worse.

Najee does one thing great - evades first tackle, ranked 2nd and 4th respective years. Sounds impressive, but it's meaningless when he does virtually nothing with it after that.  On the flip side, Jaylen Warren should have a more prominent roll considering his rushing metrics were rather impressive. Beginning to wonder if the Steelers just don't go full rotation. Why keep giving nearly all the carries to a guy who does nothing with it? Throw in Pickett (worst starting qb in league IMO) and Najee's appeal starts looking much less appealing.

Food for thought

Full RBBC , and Warren is free, great ADP. 

[GobbleDog 816]

5 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I like the rb/wr or wr/rb ideal, 

No other season in ff has had more value at the Rb position, for the late draft positions. Years past 8+ Rbs were gone in the first round. If you drafted a Rb from late positions (1st or 2nd rd) ya got crumbs. Not this year. You're selecting from top 5 Rbs, while early position drafters are left with crumbs. Total flip flop.

[Ray_T 591]

16 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I keep trying out the no rb theory, and go wr first three rounds in mocks, 12-14 team mocks, don’t like it. I like the rb/wr or wr/rb ideal, 

To much good depth at Wr, and Rbs fall off to early.  Doesn’t seem like a lot of other drafters are going all on at wr.  

you seem to be able to still pull decent WR out of the draft late.   cant say the same for RB.

[weepaws 2,461]

Yea in the 12-14 teams mocks I’ve been doing, almost all have been full ppr, cannot find a lot of half ppr mocks, I don’t like the return of Rbs I’m seeing in 4-5th rd.   I love the depth at WRs.  Etienne, Harris type Rbs have backs up that are just has good as they, I’m gong to stick with my plan, I’m going rb/wr or wr/rb.  In both my .5 and full ppr.  I really want a rb in the first rd.   I don’t know my draft position until the day before I draft, won the championship in both leagues last season, so I’m assuming near the end of rd one.   In mocks I’ve been landing a lot of The Chubb and AJ Brown I’ll take that for my first two picks.  

[rallo 132]

2 hours ago, Ray_T said:

you seem to be able to still pull decent WR out of the draft late.   cant say the same for RB.

Agreed, I may be in the minority, but I love the likes of Sutton, Cooks, hyatt, Dotson, and other Wr2/3 that can be had fairly late.

[weepaws 2,461]

1 hour ago, rallo said:

Agreed, I may be in the minority, but I love the likes of Sutton, Cooks, hyatt, Dotson, and other Wr2/3 that can be had fairly late.

Agreed.  

[Ray_T 591]

2 hours ago, rallo said:

Agreed, I may be in the minority, but I love the likes of Sutton, Cooks, hyatt, Dotson, and other Wr2/3 that can be had fairly late.

honestly 5 years ago you'd grab these guys hoping they'd be your WR3.

now you grab them and they are WR4.

the talent is deep once you get past the top end guys.   I can see drafting a top end WR early but I dont see the value in grabbing an early WR2/3.  you can wait some rounds and get a player who is close and still has similiar upside overall. 

might as well stock up on the other positions once the top WR1 are gone.   Grab some RB, QB, and TE.  then come back to get a few WR later.   There is a 2 round dead period for WR in the middle of the draft (I forget which round) but at that point you can take a WR, and by the time the draft gets back to you, the WR available are still roughly just as good as the previous round.

when you get to that point, (you'll know because when you look there will be about 6 guys who look like they are projected to score about the same) thats when you dont wanna draft a WR.   go get another position and come back.  the WR will still be there (or someone comparable will be)

[LaChup 154]

Word on the streets is that Deshaun Watson has been going first round in local masseuse leagues.

[Ray_T 591]

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

Agreed.  

further to this, I think Cooks may be underrated this year.  I think he produces well now that he actually has an NFL calibre QB tossing him the football.

[weepaws 2,461]

Mocks I’ve been doing I like going rb early. But i will use my cheat sheet to determine my strategy, never know if I will use my first pick on a wr, depends on what first rd pick I get, and of course use available.  

But I like mid to late rd wr.  

[weepaws 2,461]

3 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

further to this, I think Cooks may be underrated this year.  I think he produces well now that he actually has an NFL calibre QB tossing him the football.

I think Cooks has wr2 potential.  Also there is other besides this on that list. I know people like Ridley, but I’m targeting Kirk.  I think he will be top scoring ff wr on the jags.  Also like S Moore a lot.  

[GobbleDog 816]

My research leads me to dislike most mid-late Wrs. Maybe I'm too hung up on next gen stats, but I just don't see many gems. Obviously I'm missing some, but what to do when there's no data supporting it? Sometimes I find a good prospect, but situation stinks. George Pickens metrics indicate a fairly talented Wr, but his Qb is the worst starer in the league IMO.

On the flip side, I like several mid-late Rbs. 

[Gepetto 988]

I want to get one of Diontae Johnson, DJ Moore, or Drake London.

Where are these guys being drafted in real drafts?

How would you guys rank them?

[makindollaz 40]

1 hour ago, Gepetto said:

I want to get one of Diontae Johnson, DJ Moore, or Drake London.

Where are these guys being drafted in real drafts?

How would you guys rank them?

I don’t feel like there’s a huge gap between Johnson’s floor and ceiling.  Think he’ll fall somewhere in the 20-30 range for WR’s.  Steady, but I’d feel better if he was my WR3 in 12 team than WR2.

I’m high on Moore, if Fields breaks out.  Think he has top 8-10 potential, with a floor of about 25.  If Fields pulls a 2022 Hurts, Moore could be a league winner in the 4th or 5th round.

I want to like London, but the QB situation makes me nervous.  I’m probably not drafting him before the 6th.

[weepaws 2,461]

Moore

D J 

London.  

[Ray_T 591]

4 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

My research leads me to dislike most mid-late Wrs. Maybe I'm too hung up on next gen stats, but I just don't see many gems. Obviously I'm missing some, but what to do when there's no data supporting it? Sometimes I find a good prospect, but situation stinks. George Pickens metrics indicate a fairly talented Wr, but his Qb is the worst starer in the league IMO.

On the flip side, I like several mid-late Rbs. 

metrics are useful.  but they dont always tell the tale.

if a player (for example) is playing hurt, the metrics are gonna look like crap.    knowing that player x is playing hurt, a smart person should know not to put stock into the metrics in that particular situation.

sometimes I will add that when a player and a QB are not on the same page, occasionally you are going to get some bad reads and while the QB may throw a catchable ball it may not be THAT catchable (if you know what I mean) and that will also affect the metrics some. (at least on the balls considered catchable)   The metrics should pick up on the non catchable ones ane exclude them from the analysis of the WR.

I always look for breaks in a pattern.   if the metrics on a player are good for some years and suddenly go bad, usually there is a reason.   If you find out what that reason is, and determine whether that is going to hinder the player this coming year, you have just figured out something that everyone else has ignored.

for example:  Zeke's yards per carry is lower than its been, but his touches are down and his TD's and goal line/short yardage touches are as good as they have ever been.  if you exclude the goal line touches and the 3rd/4th and 1 touches how is his yards per carry then?   

Given the large number of goal line touches I'd bet money his yards per carry are far more respectable if you exclude those from the analysis.

whether that makes a difference to you remains to be seen.  I dont have that data at my fingertips.   I'm just using a hypothetical, but it would not surprise me if there is something here.  it may be worth looking into just to know for sure.

anyhow like I said, metrics are useful but not always.   There are times where it pays to ignore the metrics.

[GobbleDog 816]

9 hours ago, Ray_T said:

metrics are useful.  but they dont always tell the tale.

Agreed. I take team situations and injuries into account.  But I'm still relying on those stats.

What's the alternative? "Well, I just kind of feel (hope) this player will be good..." I've tried that strategy - doesn't work. Seems to be prominent even among many "experts."

[Ray_T 591]

41 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Agreed. I take team situations and injuries into account.  But I'm still relying on those stats.

What's the alternative? "Well, I just kind of feel (hope) this player will be good..." I've tried that strategy - doesn't work. Seems to be prominent even among many "experts."

well, your top players are usually gonna have good metrics.   those guys usually go first as they produce.

after that there are a lot of things to consider:

1) potency of the offense/starting QB

2) the individual WR's spot in the pecking order for the offense.    in some cases I'd rather have the #2 WR on a top offense than the #1 WR on a crappy offense but in some cases you look at a guy who could be the #1 WR on a crappy offense and that guy is still sitting on the draft board late in the draft.   Case in point: houston Texans.   I suspect either Nico Collins or Robert woods will put up solid fantasy numbers in Houston but I dont know which one will get it done.  Late In the july Mock draft here at fftoday, I put my money on Collins with the thought that it could easily be Robert Woods (who ended up going undrafted)  one of these guys taken very late in a draft will make somebody happy.  I'm reasonably sure of it.

3) age.  a young player is still on the learning curve and can have huge jumps in both metrics and production.  an older player with subpar metrics is less likely to bounce back unless they were injured

4) injury status.  the logical next thing to look at.    was there an injury to the player or a key member of the offense that would cause the metrics to be off?   did the player have off field problems that could have affected their on field performance?   I know this should never happen, but it does.   a dude focused on a divorce likely isnt focused on his job the way he should be.

5) lastly if there is something that kept the player from being their best, does that situation still exist at the start of this year?   is it a recurring thing?   are they still in recovery from said injury?

 

there are other things I look at too, but this is the low hanging fruit.

[weepaws 2,461]

All one has to do is look at last season.  .5 ppr.  DJ avg 7.9 per game, Pickens avg 8.1, Pickens had 63 less targets.  Pickens game best suits the Steelers current Qb.  

[Ray_T 591]

15 minutes ago, weepaws said:

All one has to do is look at last season.  .5 ppr.  DJ avg 7.9 per game, Pickens avg 8.1, Pickens had 63 less targets.  Pickens game best suits the Steelers current Qb.  

I'd agree with that.

by year end Pickens will be considered the WR1 on that team (if he isnt already)

[polecatt 403]

On 8/19/2023 at 2:13 PM, weepaws said:

I keep trying out the no rb theory, and go wr first three rounds in mocks, 12-14 team mocks, don’t like it. I like the rb/wr or wr/rb ideal, 

To much good depth at Wr, and Rbs fall off to early.  Doesn’t seem like a lot of other drafters are going all on at wr.  

It kind of defeats the purpose of going no RB if you're just going to draft all WRs instead.

If you want to make that work you have to get the best QB and TE too, or close to it. I know you didn't draft a QB early

[weepaws 2,461]

So if you draft three WRs, a Qb, a Te, now your in the 6th for a rb1 on your team.  Yea not for me.   

But is that the way people do it, if they go wr/wr/wr ? 

The 14 team ppr mocks I’ve been in, I’ve seen people draft like that, then they try to catch up at rb.  

[GobbleDog 816]

13 hours ago, Ray_T said:

4) ... did the player have off field problems that could have affected their on field performance? 

Maybe Diontae Johnson's cat died last year.  

[Ray_T 591]

8 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Maybe Diontae Johnson's cat died last year.  

maybe.  his issue is easier.

he has a QB with a different skillset and hasnt been able to make the adjustment.

I think he will eventually get there but I dont think his numbers will ever be what they were with Rothlisberger

[GobbleDog 816]

Not my league, but I helped a friend who drafted from the 11 spot last night in a 12-team ppr.

First few rounds were normal with Wrs flying off early. A little surprised J Taylor went 2nd round. Biggest shock was how few decent Rbs remained when it snaked back at the end of the 5th... Dobbins, White, Connor, Pacheco, Mattison... gone. I've mock drafted a hundred times and one of them is always there til late 6th.  He got stuck with Achilles Akers. 

He wanted to draft T Lawrence at that 5th/6th rd turn, which I assured him would be there since he usually goes early-7th in mocks. But nope...  Lawrence, Burrow and Herbert in-that-order drafted mid 5th.  Ended up with Rodgers in the 8th - not my call, but Rodgers is interesting because the range of outcomes - MVP to retirement.

On the flip side, because of all the early Rb and Qbs taken, more good Wrs went later than normal.

[kcBlitzkrieg 17]

12t ppr redraft this past Sunday...4 or 5 years with basically the same core of owners so usually have a good feel for how the draft will flow.... only one surprise really this year.... 

QBs early...why?  I have no idea.  Seven QBs first Four rounds.  Mahomes/Allen (2nd) /Hurts/Lamar (3rd)/Fields/Herbert/Burrow (4th) 
      

[Ray_T 591]

On 8/21/2023 at 9:33 AM, GobbleDog said:

Not my league, but I helped a friend who drafted from the 11 spot last night in a 12-team ppr.

First few rounds were normal with Wrs flying off early. A little surprised J Taylor went 2nd round. Biggest shock was how few decent Rbs remained when it snaked back at the end of the 5th... Dobbins, White, Connor, Pacheco, Mattison... gone. I've mock drafted a hundred times and one of them is always there til late 6th.  He got stuck with Achilles Akers. 

He wanted to draft T Lawrence at that 5th/6th rd turn, which I assured him would be there since he usually goes early-7th in mocks. But nope...  Lawrence, Burrow and Herbert in-that-order drafted mid 5th.  Ended up with Rodgers in the 8th - not my call, but Rodgers is interesting because the range of outcomes - MVP to retirement.

On the flip side, because of all the early Rb and Qbs taken, more good Wrs went later than normal.

wow, I'd rather have Burrow and Herbert than Lawrence.   I agree Lawrence still has upside as hes still improving his game but thats a bit of a shock.

I also noticed in the July Mock that a lot of solid WR's could be had late in that draft too.

[GobbleDog 816]

17 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

wow, I'd rather have Burrow and Herbert than Lawrence.   I agree Lawrence still has upside as hes still improving his game but thats a bit of a shock.

I also noticed in the July Mock that a lot of solid WR's could be had late in that draft too.

I suggested Burrow or Herbert in the 4th, but when he asked about Lawrence's availability in the 5th, I assured him he'd be there because 95% of the time he is. But 5% happened. Perfect example of the sage advice - draft your players. Don't focus too much playing the adp game and miss gems. Though his scoring doesn't have pass yardage bonuses or completion points (yes some leagues have that), so not a total tragedy.

ETA - I get your point now. The order of taking Lawrence before Burrow and Herbert was shocking. Never seen that in any of my mocks.

[Ray_T 591]

20 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

I suggested Burrow or Herbert in the 4th, but when he asked about Lawrence's availability in the 5th, I assured him he'd be there because 95% of the time he is. But 5% happened. Perfect example of the sage advice - draft your players. Don't focus too much playing the adp game and miss gems. Though his scoring doesn't have pass yardage bonuses or completion points (yes some leagues have that), so not a total tragedy.

ETA - I get your point now. The order of taking Lawrence before Burrow and Herbert was shocking. Never seen that in any of my mocks.

well, if there is a player I really like(or who I think breaks out or over performs his ADP)  I find his ADP and try to take a half round to a full round early.

Real problem is.... depending on where you draft, sometimes you are handcuffed by your draft position.   especially if you draft at the turn.

if drafting at the end of round 1 and the beginning of round 2, it could be too early to take your guy in the first pick of round 2 and too late to take him at the last pick in round 3.   so either you reach, or you be patient and wait and hope they drop to you.

so you have to plan for a couple of these types of players not to make it back to you.   Thats the way it goes.   so always have a backup plan.

[GobbleDog 816]

14 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

Real problem is.... depending on where you draft, sometimes you are handcuffed by your draft position.   especially if you draft at the turn.

Agreed. Perfect example - I posted in the "drafting 1st" thread, my mocks indicate the hardest part about the 1 position is if you don't take a Rb at the 4/5 turn, the last of the decent starting Rbs (Dobbins, Pacheco, White, Conner, etc.) generally dries up as it snakes back to you in the 6th round. From mid/late positions, you can generally rely on one being there, but not from the 1st. So, in later mocks I felt compelled to take a Rb at the 4/5 turn, rather than Wrs I like.